- ASEAN has failed to become a fully functioning single market due to persisting tariffs and the emergence of new non-tariff barriers despite establishing the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.
- Businesses are dissatisfied with ASEAN's slow pace of economic integration, which is insufficient to meet its own goals or future global challenges. ASEAN's consensus-based approach delays necessary progress.
- ASEAN has not adequately accounted for China's rising influence in its integration plans. China's bilateral ties and infrastructure investments threaten to undermine ASEAN's goals of regional cohesion and alter trade flows.
- ASEAN has failed to become a fully functioning single market due to persisting tariffs and the emergence of new non-tariff barriers despite establishing the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.
- Businesses are dissatisfied with ASEAN's slow pace of economic integration, which is insufficient to meet its own goals or future global challenges. ASEAN's consensus-based approach delays necessary progress.
- ASEAN has not adequately accounted for China's rising influence in its integration plans. China's bilateral ties and infrastructure investments threaten to undermine ASEAN's goals of regional cohesion and alter trade flows.
- ASEAN has failed to become a fully functioning single market due to persisting tariffs and the emergence of new non-tariff barriers despite establishing the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.
- Businesses are dissatisfied with ASEAN's slow pace of economic integration, which is insufficient to meet its own goals or future global challenges. ASEAN's consensus-based approach delays necessary progress.
- ASEAN has not adequately accounted for China's rising influence in its integration plans. China's bilateral ties and infrastructure investments threaten to undermine ASEAN's goals of regional cohesion and alter trade flows.
Supplement to the Global and Regional Economic Cooperation and Integration
Association of Southeast Asian Nations • ASEAN is a regional grouping that promotes economic, political, and security cooperation among its ten members.
• Member Countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
• 8th of August is observed as ASEAN Day.
Did you know that there is an ASEAN Integration 2015? History
1967 1992 2002 2007
signing of the ASEAN creation of ASEAN Free Trade formally called the regional advanced the achievement of Declaration (Bangkok Area (AFTA) where the 6 older economy as ASEAN Economic the entire ASEAN communities Declaration) by the Founding ASEAN member countries grant Community (AEC) – focusing on from 2020 to 2015. Fathers of ASEAN, Indonesia, preferential tariffs among each trade. Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore other and eventually abolish and Thailand. such tariff and removed non- tariff barriers.
Brunei Darussalam joined on
1984, Vietnam on 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar on 1997, and adoption of ASEAN Vision 2020 – included the ASEAN Security Cambodia on 1999, making up leading to an ASEAN Economic Community and the ASEAN the 10 Member States of ASEAN. Region. Socio-cultural Community.
1984 1997 2003
ASEAN Integration 2015
• Addressing sub-regional issues
to support ASEAN-wide goals. • GOAL: A region with free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labor and free-flow of capital. Three Pillars ASEAN Political-Security Community ASEAN Economic Community ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community of ASEAN Community ▪ Rules-based community ▪ Common market and shared base of ▪ Human resources development ▪ Peaceful, evolutionary, production shared sense of ▪ Provide adequate social responsibility, and ▪ Competitive with other welfares and services possessing regions ▪ Social rights and justice comprehensive security ▪ A region with few ▪ Environmental ▪ Dynamic, supports efforts developmental gaps sustainability to form a global outreach ▪ A region that is and mutual ▪ ASEAN identity integrated yet able to interdependence retain its own ▪ The narrowing of ▪ Promotion and Protection momentum in moving developmental gap of Human Rights forward external between member states economic relations Goods & Manufacturing • Electronics • Wood-based products • Automotive • Rubber-based products • Textiles and apparel • Agriculture / Fisheries-based products Services ▪ ICT (e-ASEAN) ▪ Healthcare Priority ▪ ▪ Air travel Tourism Sectors ▪ ▪ Education Financial Forming: 2003 / 2007 – 2015 ▪ Single Market and Production Base
Storming: 2016 – 2018
ASEAN Economic ▪ Competitive Economic Region Community Transition Map Norming: 2019 – 2021 ▪ Equitable Economic Development
Performing: 2021 – 2025
▪ Integration into the Global Economy What happened to ASEAN Integration 2015? • From the business perspective, what is more important than ASEAN's contribution to ASEAN has peace and stability is what is built upon it. optimistic plans • This depends on if outcomes are optimized. for further Government officials would appear to be integration until satisfied with ASEAN pursuing sub-optimal goals as long as the group survives. 2025 • Businesses want ASEAN to thrive by achieving optimal results. Businesses point out that ASEAN has so far failed to become a fully functioning single market and production base because some tariffs continue to exist and new non- tariff barriers have appeared even after the establishment of the AEC was announced in 2015, which affects the cost of intra-regional trade. • For example, ASEAN bases its economic growth forecast through 2025 on several assumptions: tariffs will be zero (possible), the cost of intra-regional trade will be reduced by 20% (improbable), and non- tariff barriers will be reduced by half (unlikely). On the contrary, since the AEC was announced, there have been many instances of the reverse. Certificates of origin have been rejected, trade in some halal products have been held up, and other conditions of doing business within the region have not improved as expected. • There are many complaints about rules and regulations that continue to hinder investment, prevent services being delivered to those that need them, and curb the movement of skilled labor despite the signing of mutual recognition agreements, such as those pertaining to engineers.
• ASEAN's consensual approach of not rocking the boat delays
progress despite the frantic pace of working groups meeting to propose solutions. The pace of economic integration is insufficient in meeting not only ASEAN's own goals but the ability of the region to meet future global challenges. China Syndrome • ASEAN has not adequately taken into account the rise of China in its integration plans, which could undermine its assumption of regional cohesion. China's trade and investment with Southeast Asia is often expressed in aggregated amounts. But this fails to convey the fact that China's relations with ASEAN member countries are primarily conducted in a bilateral manner, with some sub-regional consequences. • In the sub-region of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand, economic ties with the southern Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi are strong. Together, they form a distinct economic area of 400 million people with an economy about half the size of the ASEAN. It is also growing by 7%-8% a year, well above the ASEAN average of about 5%. China Syndrome • While such sub-regional developments are not extraordinary, what is new is the central role being played by China, which is becoming the most powerful country in east Asia, if not the world. • China's Belt and Road Initiative is not empty rhetoric. The transportation connections and logistics networks it will establish are likely to change trade flows and volume within Southeast Asia. For example, China has raised the possibility of helping to build the long- discussed Kra canal across the Thai isthmus of the same name. This will allow ships to bypass the Strait of Malacca, which would reduce port business for Singapore and affect its distribution network. China Syndrome • ASEAN has to face up to these developments and possibilities and redraw its economic integration plan to accommodate them. Its gradual economic integration process cannot meet the dynamic expectations of business, which wants fast results. • The digitization of the economy is proceeding at a rapid rate, but the 2025 master plan only addresses this trend on a piecemeal basis. The rise of automation, which threatens unskilled and semi-skilled employment, is not addressed at all. The best way to meet this challenge is developing new paradigms in education and job training, but this is left up to the individual ASEAN countries to determine. The Economic Divide • Digitalization also threatens to widen the disparities among Southeast Asian countries. Automation could end the use of low-cost labor in manufacturing on which the poorest ASEAN survive, while countries attuned to the potential of the digital economy will likely grow richer because of greater productivity and the creation of higher value- added industries. • Chinese companies are beginning to dominate the digital space in ASEAN economies, which could prevent Southeast Asia's own technology companies from taking full advantage of the fourth industrial revolution. • These are all very real developments for the near future that ASEAN is failing to address. Even with its less dynamic model of integration, ASEAN is struggling to keep pace. • The group needs a radical overhaul in thinking and leadership if ASEAN is to remain the most relevant model for closer economic integration in the future - a future that is already happening now. Sources: • ASEAN Economic Community (asean.org) • Munir Majid, ASEAN integration lags the real world, Nikkei Asian Review (asia.nikkei.com)