Market Trends for EV

Charging Stations
Team Kurious Krew
IIM KOZHIKODE
Executive Summary

• Awareness about Electric vehicles is present at substantial level in most developed countries around the globe, even
though it is not as much in underdeveloped countries
• The electric vehicle market has shown a robust annual growth rate of 66% for the past six years
• Consumer spending on Electric Vehicles have increased 6 times even as the share of government subsidies in the total
spending dropped
• Although many countries are launching programs for large scale EV charging infrastructure, but only 3 EU countries met
EVSE to EV ratio recommended by ASID
• The demand for EV charging station is higher in private arenas than in public. But the public demand is expected to catch
up with share growing 20% in next 10 years
• The energy demand for EV charging is expected to reach 280 billion kWh in Europe, US, and China by 2030
• EV charging value chain has seen 5 strategic roles being adopted by private players. Fuel-based companies are shifting
to the charging market because of government incentives and global trend
• The EV charging station face environmental challenges like poor infrastructure, lack of know how of traffic management
for charging stations, grid overloading, etc.

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 EV awareness exists as the global electric car stock reached 10 million units in 2020 but
market dynamics suggests inability to adapt in developing and underdeveloped regions

Market Growth
• Growth rates in the global EV market were between 46% and
69% for the last 6 years indicating a steady blooming
growth. In 2020, the growth rate for the market was around
41%.
• The market growth is much aided by government policies
such as the 95 g/km CO2 emission limit imposed by the EU.
• Introduction of new EV models in almost all categories by big
players like Ford Motor Company, Tesla, Mercedes, Kia and
Hyundai have also supplemented growth.
Market Dynamics
• Key trends of the EV market vary by region with the region’s economy
being the main factor.
• As seen in the chart, the global EV market is concentrated in the
developed economic powers of the world led by China and Europe.
• EV market share in developing countries is non-existent due to the
inability to support the costly infrastructure or the inability to afford EVs
which are still very costly compared to their fuel guzzling alternatives.

Source: IEA Analysis,Virta 3

 An increase of global market EV uptake has been observed over the past decade with
66% CAGR

CAGR

66%

Year
on year
growth

Year on year EV uptake in the global market

(million units)
Source: EV Volumes 4
 Even with more support coming from the government, consumers start to spend more
on EVs

Comments:
● Government incentives = direct government spending through purchase
initiatives + foregone revenue due to taxes waived for electric cars
● Consumer spending = total expenditure based on model price – government National Subsidies for EV purchase in the 1st and 2nd half of 2020
spending (in thousand USD)

Source:IEAAnalysis 5
 In the next 30 years, 8 countries together with the European Union (EU) pledge net-zero
emissions while 31 countries target 100% electrification or ICE ban

Electrification Targets in Different Countries

Denmark Scotland France Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) ban

or electrification targets
Iceland Singapore Cabo Verde Canada

Ireland Slovenia China Portugal

Netherlands
Israel Sweden Japan Spain Costa Rica

Norway Netherlands UK UK Sri Lanka Germany

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sweden Canada Korea

100% electrified sales Chile New Zealand

● Those with net-zero
100% ZEV sales emissions policy
100% ZEV stocks documents only have not EU Norway
Net-zero pledge been included.
Fiji UK

Net-zero emissions pledges

1. ZEV = zero-emission vehicle (BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs)
2. BEVs = battery electric vehicles
3. PHEVs = plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
4. FCEVs = fuel cell electric vehicles
5. EU = European Union; refers to the collective pledge of the 27 member states

Source: IEA
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 More countries increased its efforts to strategically plan and install large-scale
interconnected EV charging stations along main transport routes

PROGRAMS GOALS & DESCRIPTION PROGRAMS GOALS & DESCRIPTION

• indicative ratio of 1 charger • iZEV • level 2 chargers at

• Alternative Fuel
Infrastructure
per 10 electric cars
• 1 million publicly accessible
Directive (AFID)
chargers installed by 2025
and create a roadmap of
European key actions to achieve it
Union
• Digital • USD 1.4 trillion spending
infrastructure program that includes EV
public spending charging stations funding
programme • more than ten cities to
install about 1.2 million
chargers by 2025
China
• Infrastructure • programs to install 500,000
plan proposed chargers
in early 2021 • CA and NY offer subsidies
and tax incentives, and
collaborate with electric
utilities to promote EV
United States deployment
1. iZEV = Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure programme
2. EVAFIDI = Electric Vehicle and Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Deployment Initiative
3. HDVs = Heavy-Duty Vehicles
• EVAFIDI residential, workplaces,
fleet and high-power
charging infrastructure
• installation of a national
network of fast chargers
Canada
• Energy • aims to ensure the
Efficiency Law interoperability of the EV
charging system to
facilitate the access and
connection of EV users to
the charging network
Chile
• USD 133 million budget for
• FAME II
charging infrastructure
programme
• install at least 1 charging
station every 25 km along
key highways and every
100 km to accommodate
India HDVs

Source: IEAAnalysis 7
 Among the 27 European Union countries, only 3 were able to meet the target EVSE:EV
ratio recommended by AFID

Comments:
● Only Netherlands, Italy, and France were
able to meet the AFID Target Ratio for EU
Countries 0.1 EVSE/EV ratio
● In EU, the average public EVSE per EV
ratio was 0.09 at the end of 2020
● Countries with the highest EV penetration
tend to have the lowest EVSE per EV
ratios, such as Norway (0.03), Iceland
(0.03) and Denmark (0.05)

1. AFID: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Directive

2. EVSE: Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment

Source:IEAAnalysis 8
 With a growth of EV users, the spectrum of charging needs and the value chain of
charging infrastructure have evolved

• Home & Work Charging

- Affordable and convenient installation of charging
device at residential spaces

• En-route Charging
Customer Charging - Convenient billing and widespread availability of
Needs charging facilities

• Destination Charging
- Easy access to charging stations at public locations

• Supplying Charging Hardware

• Installation Services at Charging Locations

• Ownership of Charging Station Sites andAssets

EV Charging
Value Chain • Managing operations at Charging Locations

• Offering Maintenance Services and Customer Support

• End-customer E-mobility services

Source: BCG, Competition and Markets Authority 9

 Publicly accessible slow and fast chargers increased to 1.3 million in 2020, with a
predicted 12x growth by 2030

Supply of publicly accessible EV chargers is China was the leading supplier of publicly
predicted to increase exponentially accessible slow and fast EV chargers in 2020

Publicly available EV chargers increased by 1.3 million in 2020 due to Breakdown of the 1.3 million publicly accessible
the increase in the demand for EV despite the COVID-19 pandemic. slow and fast chargers across different
Charging station supply projections for 2025 and 2030 are also shown. countries and continents in 2020.

Source: IEA 10
 AC charging is the first preference of EV owners and DC charging have less adoption
due to higher installation costs despite high utility

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Long Term

AC Charging DC Charging Wireless Charging

• Presence of in-car converter • External hardware converts • It uses Electromagnetic Field to

changes Alternating Current to
Charging
Direct Current which charges EV
Technology
battery at Level 1 or Level 2
Alternating current from the grid transfer energy through magnetic
to Direct Current which fast induction from the source to the
charges EV battery EV

• 120 Volts for Level 1 • 350–480 Volts for Level 3 • 3 to 7 kW Power Range
Operating Range • 240 Volts for Level 2 • Operates for 25 to 350 kW
• 20 kW Power Rating Power

• 16 to 20 hours to full charge for • Fast & Superfast Charging • Slow Charging
Charging Time Level 1 • 30 to 45 minutes to 80% • 2-3 days for full battery charge
• 6 to 8 hours for Level 2 charge

• Level 1 is corded charging, uses • Public charging stations, • Require expensive upgrades to
Installation a plugin adapter requires dedicated grid electricity distribution network
Requirements • Level 2 requires installation of infrastructure • Uses installed charging mats at
dedicated EV wall-box charger • Operates on 3-phase power parking areas
supply

• Used for home charging • Public charging stations, • Technology is in nascent stage
Utility • The default charging mode for expensive to install • More convenient, durable and
majority of EV owners • Users are required to pay less risky
1. AC = AlternatingCurrent
premium for fast charging
2. DC = Direct Current

Source: : Gartner Hype Cycle for Automotive Technologies, Financial Express, McKinseyAnalysis 11
 Demand for DC Charging will see major growth with widespread EV adoption in US,
Europe, and China in the next 10 years

2020 vs 2030 Demand for DC and AC Charging in US, Europe, and China
(in %)
Comments:
▪ All the leading countries are experiencing wide-scale adoption of Level 1 and Level 2 charging in the current few years
▪ The demand for DC fast charging is expected to shoot up by 2030 driven by mass adoption of EV
▪ China is leading in creating DC fast charging infrastructure backed by dedicated state initiatives
▪ Unlike other countries, share of Level 1 charging mode will diminish, with major share taken up by Level 2 and Level
3 EV charging

Source: McKinsey Analysis 12

 In Europe, China and the USA alone, 18 billion kilowatt-hours of charging energy was
needed for EVs in 2020 and is projected to reach 280 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030

Annual mileage per private EV

Europe
• 2020: 4 billion kilowatt-hours
• Europe is estimated at 14,989 km
• 2025 Projection: 25 billion
• US, 18,095 km
kilowatt-hours
• China, 11,000 km
• 2030 Projection: 79 billion
kilowatt-hours
A battery efficiency of approximately 20
kilowatt-hours per 100 km is estimated.

It is projected that by 2030, charging energy

demand for electric vehicles in the 3 regions
studied alone will reach 280 billion
kilowatt-hours.

China
• 2020: 8 billion kilowatt-hours
• 2025 Projection: 44 billion
kilowatt-hours
• 2030 Projection: 139 billion
kilowatt-hours
US
• 2020: 6 billion kilowatt-hours
• 2025 Projection: 23 billion
kilowatt-hours
• 2030 Projection: 53 billion
kilowatt-hours

Source: Mckinsey 13
 Emerging patterns in existing EV charging space have shown that the following
Business Models are being adopted by various players across EV Charging Value Chain

Business Activities Market & Leading Players Revenue Stream

• Charging hardware design and • Equipment providers • Selling hardware to aggregators

Hardware manufacturing • Market expected to get crowded • Profit margin derived from
Systems • Focus on differentiation and quality manufacturing efficiency

• Installation and maintenance of • Middle and large sized electric service • Service charges collected from B2B
Installing & charging stations. providers offerings
Maintenance • Training and managing ground staff • Require dedicated and trained ground
staff

• Investment and owning charging • Oil and gas companies or public • Revenue from charging services for EV
Asset
stations establishments owners
Ownership

• Software development and customer • Software companies providing solutions • B2C services like locating stations,
Platform service for B2B and B2C customers tracking consumption, and billing
Provider • Ensuring data security • B2B focus on operational efficiency and
revenue monitoring

• Ensure close integration in value chain • Leading players like tech giants or • Leverage network effect to expand EV
Aggregator • Provide platform for bringing all electric automotive companies adoption and revenue sources
players together

Source: BCG Automotive Industry, PR Newswire

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 Many companies exist in the EV charging market with more fuel-based companies like
Shell making the shift due to government incentives and a global trend
Company Focused Area Prospects and facts

• NorthAmerica, • As of March 2020, Tesla operates 16,103

Europe, Chine Superchargers in 1,826 stations
worldwide;
• Introduction of Tesla Super Chargers
network with 25000+ super chargers

• USA • 1,973 stations in network

• Introduction of AI Based PredictEV

• United • plan to roll out 500,000 electric charging

Kingdom, stations in just four years
China, India • Already a major name in transport and oil
market

• United • Acquisition of Charge Master

Kingdom, USA • UK’s largest charging network operator with
over 7,000 charging points and also a
leader in the installation of home charging
and workplace charging solution

• USA, UK • Offers 30,000 Places to Charge an

Electric Vehicle

Source: Robotics & AutomationNews 15

 There are environmental concerns with the development of EV charging station due to
uneven accessibility causing power losses

Environmental challenges

Traffic
Management
Traffic Grid Load at
Poor roads
conditions overloading forecasting Charging
Stations

• The location of the charging station for the EV is very essential criteria.
• Reduction of electric losses from EV charging stations is possible if they are installed
near the electric substation.
• Most often electric substations are far from EV users (for fast charging, which is the first
preference for the consumer). Thus, travel is required to recharge vehicles, which in turn
produce EV energy loss.

Source: IEEE 16
 Challenges associated with expanding EV charging infrastructure lie with utilities
which collaboration among all stakeholders involved could alleviate

The Role of Utilities in EV Charging Infrastructures

• An increased energy demand for EV charging also means an increased cost

in upgrading the utilities that are required to sustain the increasing demand.
Sharing
• An early collaborations for site host customers with utilities could reduce
Costs
costs and further collaboration with governments to offer incentives, could
boost EV charging suppliers.

Grid • Utilities can reduce grid impact using integrated software enabling remote
Management monitoring and control of EV chargers.

• Incentivized time-of-use rates could offer cost savings on electric bills while
Consumer reducing stress on power grids during peak electricity demand periods, both to
Issues residential and commercial customers.

Universal EV • Lower-level charging stations with rebates for higher-density or low-income

infrastructure communities and customer education could see an increased accessibility to
Access EV charging infrastructure for all social-classes of the world.

Source: PwC 17
 EV are gaining popularity, with surge in customer demands for better charging
technology and infrastructure creating new opportunities in energy market

● Dropping share of govt ● Environmental Challenges

subsidies spending ● Demand for DC ● Utilities collaboration with
● Program launches for Charging expected to Private Players to alleviate
digital infrastructure explode challenges

EV Market Country Policies Charging Needs Technology Businesses Challenges &

Dynamics & Targets Spectrum Demand Value Chain Way Forward

● 1.3 Mn chargers ● 5 Business Models: Hardware,

● EV Market CAGR 66% Installation, Ownership,
available in 2020
● Awareness more in
● Target charging need Software & Aggregation
developing countries ● Fuel based, automotive
280Bn KWh by 2030
companies among market
leaders

Concluding Remarks

• Observe great surge in demand for public and fast charging

• EV charging revolution will benefit from IoT and connected technology
• Presence of EV in public transport will surge backed by utilities efforts

Source: IEA
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Thank You!

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