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CURRENT STATUS OF INDUSTRY: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Presentation · October 2017

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29995.34087

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 Sri Lanka Economic Association – Annual Sessions 2017

CURRENT STATUS OF INDUSTRY:

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Dr. Chandranath Amarasekara

Additional Director of Economic Research
Economic Research Department
Central Bank of Sri Lanka

 The author wishes to thank Dr. U. Vidanapathirana for encouragement, and Ms Medha Kumari and Mr Navin Perera of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
for research support. Opinions expressed do not necessarily represent the official position of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 1
 A status update of the industry sector from a
“non – industrial economist”
• Part 1
‐ Evolution of Sri Lanka’s industry sector
‐ Current status of industry

• Part 2
‐ Issues and Challenges in the industry sector

1. Inconsistent and
3. Lack of diversification,
unpredictable government
insufficient modernisation,
policies
lack of integration, stagnant
2. Inability of the domestic productivity, and excessive
private sector to advance dependence on incentives

4. Structural challenges arising from the lack of infrastructure, capital

and labour
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 2
 Sectoral Composition of GDP
• Sri Lanka leapfrogged to a service oriented economy from an
agricultural economy, while the evolution of the industry
sector has been gradual
Sectoral Composition of GDP/GVA
100%
90%
80% 35.9
45.4 47.9 42.8 47.7 52.8
70% 60.9 62.2
60%
19.1
50%
16.8
40% 23.8 29.6
26.0
27.3
30%
45.0 29.7 29.6
20% 37.8
28.3 27.6 26.3
10% 19.9
9.5 8.2
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Agriculture Industry Services
Sources: Department of Census and Statistics
Central Bank of Sri Lanka

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 3
 Composition of Industry Activities
• Sri Lanka’s industry sector activities are dominated by construction;
mining & quarrying; manufacture of food beverages & tobacco, and
manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
• The manufacturing sector accounts for 57.3% of the industry sector,
thus for about 17% of GVA
Mining and Quarrying
Composition of Industry related Activities - 2016 (2010 prices)
Manufacture of Food, Beverages & Tobacco Products

9.0 Manufacture of Textiles, Wearing Apparel and Leather Related

Products
28.3 Manufacture of Wood and of Products of Wood and Cork, except
Furniture
21.5 Manufacture of Paper Products, Printing and Reproduction of
Media Products
Manufacture of Coke and Refined Petroleum Products

Manufacture of Chemical Products and Basic Pharmaceutical

Products
3.8 Manufacture of Rubber and Plastic Products
3.0
1.1 11.6 Manufacture of Other Non- metallic Mineral Products
4.0
0.5 Manufacture of Basic Metals and Fabricated Metal Products
2.7 3.5
3.7 Manufacture of Machinery and Equipment

Manufacture of Furniture

1.8 Other Manufacturing, and Repair and Installation of Machinery

1.5 1.2 1.3 and Equipment
1.3
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply

Water Collection, Treatment and Supply

Sewerage, Waste Treatment and Disposal Activities

Construction

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 4
 Employment Generation
• The sectoral share of employment in the industry sector is broadly
in line with the sectoral share of industry in GDP
• This is in contrast to the agriculture sector that employs 27% of the
employed to produce 8.2% of GDP, and the services sector which
produces 62.2% of GDP with 47% of the employed
Sectoral Shares in GVA vs
Sectoral Shares in Employment Employment
100%

90% 8.2
30.9 30.3 33.7
80% 41.2 29.6
47.0
70%
27.0 26.0
60% 20.2 21.2
23.5
50%
24.7
40% 26.0

30%
48.9 48.5
20% 42.9
34.0 47.0
27.0
10% 62.2

0%
1981 1990 1998 2010 2016
Industry Services Agriculture
Agriculture Industry Services Sources: Department of Census and Statistics
Central Bank of Sri Lanka
World Development Indicators
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 5
 According to the Labour Force Survey, 26.4% of employed
are in industry, within which 17.9% work in manufacturing…
Employment by Economic Activity (a)(b)(c)(d)
in 1,000s
2016
Sector 2013 (e) 2014 (e) 2015 (e)
Annual

Agriculture 2,321 2,223 2,245 2,154

Industry 1,997 2,027 2,018 2,098

Mining and Quarrying 91 75 61 60
Manufacturing 1,366 1,389 1,408 1421
Construction, Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply,
540 564 550 617
Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities

Services 3,363 3,450 3,568 3,696

Total employment 7,681 7,700 7,831 7,948

(a) Household population aged 15 years and above

(b) Based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) - Revision 4
(c) Provisional
(d) In July 2016, DCS published a re-weighted and revised labour force data series for 2011 onwards.
(e) Revised

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 6
 Provincial Distribution of Industry
• Out of total industry sector activity in the country, 50.1% takes place
in the Western Province, followed by North Western (10.5%),
Southern (8.7%) and Central (7.9%) Provinces
• In the Western Province, industry activity contributes 34.6% to
Provincial GDP, and the lowest Provincial contribution from industry
activity is observed in the Northern Province at 17.2%

Provincial Distribution of Industry, by Industry Share of Provincial

contribution to GDP GDP
40
34.6
6.0 35 31.7
3.9
4.2
30 27.2
10.5 24.6
23.9
25 21.8 22.0 21.2
50.1
6.7 20 17.2

15
8.7
10
2.1 7.9
5

Western Central Southern

Northern Eastern North Western
North Central Uva Sabaragamuwa

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 7
 Co-movement of GDP Growth and Industry Growth
• Growth rate of the manufacturing sector fell below the GDP
growth rate since late 1990s indicating the erosion of
competitiveness in apparel manufacturing and rising importance
of construction activity
Real GDP Growth and Growth of Industry and Real GDP Growth, and Growth of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing
20 Manufacturing Activity
Non-
Industry Manufacturing
manufacturing GDP
Activities Activities
Activities
15
Annual Percentage Change

2012 9.0 3.2 19.6 9.1

2013 4.1 2.3 6.9 3.4
2014 4.7 2.5 7.9 5.0
10
2015 2.1 4.9 -1.9 4.8
2016 6.7 1.7 14.1 4.4
5 Average 5.3 2.9 9.3 5.3

0
The 5-year average for Real GDP
growth and Industry activity
-5
growth are the same (5.3%), but
1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 “tradeable” manufacturing sector
GDP annual growth (%) ..
Industrial sector annual growth (%)
has lagged behind considerably
Manufacturing sector annual growth (%) .. (2.9%)
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 8
 The Factory Industry Production Index compiled by the
CBSL also displays only a slow linear growth…
140 Movement of the Factory Industry Production Index (2010=100)
130

120
Index Value

110

100

90
Jan

Nov
Jan

Nov
Jan

Nov
Jan

Nov
Jan

Nov
Jan

Nov
Jan
Mar
May

Mar
May

Mar
May

Mar
May

Mar
May

Mar
May

Mar
May
Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges Tobacco Products
6% Other Non-metallic Mineral
Products
8%
Composition of the Index as at end 2016 Chemical and Chemical Products
Wearing Apparel 5%
32%
Rubber and Plastic Products
11%
Fabricated Metal Products
Beverages 2%
7%
Refined Petroleum Products
Other 2%
Food Products
20% 7%
9
 On average, factory industries used 83% of installed
capacity, although several industries show excess
capacity…
Capacity Utilisation in Factory Industry
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H 2017

100

80

60

40

20

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 10
 Key statistics from Annual Survey of Industries
Indicator Unit 2015 2011 2009 2007
No. of formal and informal
manufacturing establishments with
Number 16,835 16,341 16,873 16,652
more than 5 employees
(Stagnated)
No. of Persons engaged in
manufacturing establishments
Number 1,063,086 681,179 703,709 962,188
(reduced between 2007 and 2011 and
increased thereafter)
Value added of the manufacturing
establishments Rs. Mn 1,394,294 777,689 628,343 793,819

Output per persons engaged in the

Rs. Mn 3.4 2.8 2.1 2.1
manufacturing industries

Value added per persons engaged in

Rs. Mn 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8
manufacturing establishments

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

According to the 2013/2014 Economic Census, there were 5114 formal manufacturing
establishments
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 11
 Composition of employment - 2015
Semi-
Governmebt,
3.1%

Formal,
Private, 25.9%
85.7% Informal,
59.8%
Government,
11.2%

Distribution of informal sector employment by

major industry group
Half of the manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 86.3%
sector workers are employed
in the informal sector
Construction, Electricity, Gas,
Steam and air conditioning 79.8%
supply, Water supply,…

Manufacturing 49.1%

Note: Informal Sector is defined by the DCS as establishments with no EPF or Sources: Department of Census and Statistics
Inland Revenue Registration or establishments with no formal accounting Central Bank of Sri Lanka
records or establishments with less than 10 regular employees

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 12
 Credit disbursements from the banking sector
Growth of credit obtained by key sectors (y-o-y %)

7.5
5.2
8.9
Agriculture & Fishing 10.6
17.0
17.9
20.5
25.0
30.5
29.6
Industry 27.0
22.2
22.6
21.1
34.1
39.0
46.1
Services 34.2
35.4
25.7
15.8
18.3
19.8
18.7
Personal Loans and Advances 18.7
15.2
16.9
17.9

Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 13
 Part 2
Issues and Challenges in the Industry
Sector

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 14
 1. Inconsistent and unpredictable economic policies
pursued by consecutive governments…
• Deep interest rate and credit cycles
• Exchange rate policies
• Inflation cycles
• Fiscal policies – taxes and tax exemptions
• Trade and investment policies
• Industrial policies

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 15
 …Inconsistent and unpredictable economic policies
pursued by consecutive governments…
Interest Rate & Credit Cycles
25 40

35

20 30

25

15 20
Per cent

Per cent
15

10 10

5 0

-5

0 -10
Jul-08
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
AWPR (LHA) AWLR (LHA) Growth of Private Sector Credit (RHA)

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 16
 …Inconsistent and unpredictable economic policies
pursued by consecutive governments…
Movements in Annual Average Exchange Rate
5

-5

-10

-15
LKR/ USD

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40
App/ (Dep)

-45

-50
1972
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970

1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 17
 …Inconsistent and unpredictable economic policies
pursued by consecutive governments…
Annual Average inflation and Interest Rate
30

25

20

15

10

-5

Annual Average Inflation 91-d Tbill Yield

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 18
 The Global Competitiveness Index – 2016/2017
• Sri Lanka 85th/137
‐ 2015/16 73
‐ 2014/15 73
‐ 2013/14 65
‐ 2012/13 68
Most problematic factors for doing business
Crime and theft 0.7
Poor public health 0.8
Foreign currency regulations 3.2
Insufficient capacity to innovate 4.2
Tax regulations 5.1
Inadequately educated workforce 5.2
Corruption 5.3
Inflation 5.5
Inadequate supply of infrastructure 6.6
Access to financing 6.7
Tax rates 7.1
Government instability/coups 7.9
Restrictive labor regulations 9.2
Policy instability 9.5
Poor work ethic in national labor force 11.1
Inefficient government bureaucracy 11.8
0 3 6 9 12
Source: World Economic Forum, Executive Opinion Survey 2017
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 19
 The evolution of the industry sector has been largely
influenced by diverse government experiments on industrial
policies in the past, based on its view on the type of
industrialisation required and openness…
Year Policy measure
1947 The report of the State Council on an Industrial Policy for Sri Lanka was published
1957 The State Industrial Corporation Act was enacted
1961 For the implementation of the Industrial Policy, a new development division was set up in the Ministry of
Industries
1969 The Industrial Development Board was set up
1972 The Export Promotion Secretariat was formed
1978/9 Greater Colombo Economic Commission/Export Development Board were set up
1985 District Industrial Development Committees were formed
1990 An Industrialization Committee was set up in 1991 under the Industrial Promotion Act No. 46 of 1990
1990 Initiating the “200 Garment Factories Programme”
1992 The Board of Investment was formed
1995 Announcement of a “New Industrialization Strategy” & launching of the “Productivity Decade 1997-2006”
2001 A de-regulation committee was set up under the under the abovementioned Act to study and promote
deregulation to attract foreign investors
2012 Initial steps for establishing an Electrical and Electronic Technology Incubator were undertaken
2015 Formulation of a National Framework for Small and Medium Enterprises Development
2016 Formulation of a National Export Strategy and a number of related strategies/policies

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 20
 However, these industrial policy experiments
have failed to produce the expected results…

Sri Lanka has lagged behind its Asian peers in

spurring the ‘animal spirits’ of private
economic agents to boost employment
generation and incomes through
industrialisation…..

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 21
 2. The inability of the domestic private sector,
generally speaking, to advance to higher levels on
the industrial ladder as observed in other
countries…

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 22
 Inability of the domestic private sector to progress
on the industrial ladder…
• Commercial capitalism vs. Production capitalism
• Some Sri Lankan companies in the tea and apparel
sectors have been able to achieve global excellence
standards, while some consumer goods manufacturers
diversified into manufacturing different types of
products and exports
• However, the progression has been low compared to
success stories from around the world

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 23
 Where are the people with the entrepreneurial spirit
who believe in diversifying into different industries?
Michio Suzuki founded Suzuki Loom
Works in 1909 in a small coastal town in
Japan, weaving silk and cotton material. A
few years later, the company started
making weaving looms for the silk
industry. The first 30 years focused on
manufacturing these looms and exporting
them as well. Suzuki decided to diversify
the production and started to build
compact light-weight cars in 1937. After a
ban on consumer cars during the war,
Suzuki went back to producing looms,
until the cotton market collapsed in 1951.
Suzuki started producing lightweight cars
again and later successfully diversified into
motorcycles and other consumer goods
such as wheelchairs.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 24
 Where are the people with the entrepreneurial spirit
who believe in diversifying into different industries?
The Realiance group was founded by
Dhirubhai Ambani, who had humble
beginnings in India as a spice and yarn
trader. He opened a textile factory in
1966 with 36 employees and expanded it
gradually. In 1981, his elder son, Mukesh,
joined the business and initiated
backward integration of the business to
polyster fibers, petrochemicals and then
on to gas and oil. The company has now
diversified further into retail, logistics,
telecommunications, real estate etc and
is ranked 215 in Fortune 500’s world
biggest corporations.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 25
 Where are the people with the entrepreneurial spirit
who believe in diversifying into different industries?
Lee Byung-Chul started Samsung as a
grocery-store in a small town in Korea
in 1938. In 1947, the profits were
invested into a sugar refinery and with
its success built a woolen mill in 1954.
Lee was a firm believer in
diversification and invested in
securities, insurance and eventually in
electronics during the 1960s, producing
a black and white TV as the first
product. The company acquired a
telecommunications giant and started
producing telecommunication
equipment. Even after the founder’s
death the company keeps up with
investing in diversified industries,
including construction and chemicals.
SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 26
 3. The set of issues arising as a consequence of the
first two
• Lack of diversification
• Insufficient modernisation
• Lack of integration with domestic and global
production networks
• Stagnant productivity
• Excessive dependence on government incentives

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 27
 Composition of Sri Lanka’s exports remained the
same from the late 1990s….

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 28
 …in comparison to the composition of Vietnam’s
exports…

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 29
 …and the composition of India’s exports.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 30
 The slow growth in the tradeable sector can also be
seen in the falling share of exports to GDP ratio…
Exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP
2000 2016
119.8
120

93.6
100
%

80 68.9 67.2
64.8

60 54.0 50.8
51.4 50.0
42.2
39.0 41.0
40 35.0
30.1 28.0 29.3

21.2 21.4 19.2 19.6 19.1

16.6 16.4
20 13.1 12.3

0.5
0
LKA IND CHN THA PHL VNM KOR IDN BGD LAO MYS MMR MNG LKA IND CHN THA PHL VNM KOR IDN BGD LAO MYS MMR MNG

Source: World Development Indicators

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 31
 Neighbouring economies that have increased their exports
to GDP ratios have a larger manufacturing sector…
Percentage contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP of selected countries
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015
Sri Lanka 13.1 18.3 18.2 17.4 20.4 15.8 16.3 17.3 15.7 15.4

Japan n/a 27.2 27.5 25.9 21.5 20.4 19.1 18.9 17.7 n/a

Rep. of Korea 20.3 22.8 25.2 25.0 25.3 29.0 28.3 30.7 31.0 29.5

Rep. of China (Taiwan) n/a n/a 35.1 31.2 25.6 25.7 27.9 29.0 28.6 29.9

China 37.6 39.9 34.4 32.3 33.4 31.8 32.1 31.5 29.7 n/a

Thailand 18.7 21.5 21.9 27.2 26.5 28.6 29.8 31.1 27.7 26.9

Indonesia 10.3 14.0 16.4 22.3 24.1 27.7 27.4 22.0 21.0 20.8

Malaysia 18.7 21.9 19.7 24.2 26.6 30.9 27.5 23.4 22.8 22.8

Vietnam n/a n/a 20.5 12.3 15.0 17.1 18.8 12.9 13.3 13.7

The Philippines 25.7 25.7 25.2 24.8 23.0 24.5 24.1 21.4 20.4 20.1

India 15.2 16.2 16.0 16.2 17.3 15.3 15.4 17.5 16.5 16.2
Sources: World Development Indicators
National Statistics, Republic of China

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 32
 Number of patent applications and registrations
2010 2013 2015
Applications Registrations Applications Registrations Applications Registrations
Bangladesh 342 92 303 134 340 101
China 391,177 135,110 825,136 207,688 1,101,864 359,316
Germany 59,245 13,678 63,167 13,858 66,893 14,795
India 39,762 7,138 43,031 3,377 45,658 6,022
Japan 344,598 222,693 328,436 277,079 318,721 189,358
Malaysia 6,383 2,160 7,205 2,660 7,727 2,877
Mexico 14,576 9,399 15,444 10,368 18,071 9,338
Pakistan 1,094 238 934 282 886 131
Philippines 3,393 1,153 3,285 2,207 3,734 2,200
Republic of Korea 170,101 68,843 204,589 127,330 213,694 101,873
Russian Federation 42,500 30,322 44,914 31,638 45,517 34,706
Sri Lanka 460 504 516 236 481 262
Thailand 1,937 772 7,404 1,149 - 1,364
UK 21,929 5,594 22,938 5,235 22,801 5,464
USA 490,226 219,614 571,612 277,835 589,410 298,407
Source: World Intellectual Property Office

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 33
 The prevalence of a large number of small firms,
which remain so for a long period of time results in
labour and other resources being locked in less
productive activities...
• A World Bank study estimates that firms with less than 19
workers make up 76% of enterprises in Sri Lanka
• This is a much higher percentage compared to India, China,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam. Firms aged
25 years or more are only 50% – 90% larger than firms aged 5
years or less.

(Varela, Gonzalo, Antonio Martuscelli, and Apoorva Gupta.

"Improving competitiveness is about raising productivity rather than keeping costs low". South Asia’s Turn:
Policies to Boost Competitiveness and Create the Next Export Powerhouse. Gladys Lopez-Acedevo, Denis
Medvedev and Vincent Palmade. The World Bank, 2017. 17-35. Web. 28 Mar. 2017.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 34
 4. Structural challenges

• Lack of infrastructure
• Lack of capital
• Lack of labour

These challenges are already seen to hinder the

development of the industry sector (and also other
sectors), and could worsen in the period ahead.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 35
 …Structural challenges
Lack of infrastructure
• High electricity costs compared to other countries
in the region
• Non-availability of large blocks of land
• Lack of logistical facilities

Capital
• Access to credit for MSEMs limited
• Equity financing limited
• High interest rates

Labour
• Acute labour shortages
• Labour-force participation is low, while labour is
under-utilised in some sectors
• Rigid labour laws
• Lack of technical and vocational training
• Inappropriate living conditions near industrial
estates/EPZs

Sources: Department of Census and Statistics

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges 36
 Addressing these issues
in a pre-emptive manner
through close collaboration between
the government and the private
sector is essential for the country
to realise its envisaged growth
trajectory in the period ahead.

SLEA Annual Sessions 2017: Current Status of Industry: Issues and Challenges
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