Market Insights

Headlines

9th June 2011

Bears in force as Dows losing streak becomes longest since February 2009 Oil surges higher after OPEC talks break down AUD/USD bounces back from support at 1.0600 USD/JPY breaks below 80.00, while EUR struggles at 1.4700 In equity markets, the FTSE was down 1.0%, while Dow was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.0% AUD jobs due at 11.30am, UK and Eurozone rate decision due at 9.00pm and 9.45pm (AEST) respectively

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0760 Support 1.0600 Market Sentiment

Bullish The AUD has found support back at 1.0600 and the market believes the most likely move in the near term will be a retracement back up to the top of the trading range at 1.0760. That said, todays employment numbers, due at 11.30am AEDT, could be a game changer. A number below 20k could see the AUDs outlook shift to bearish.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1555 Support 1520 Market Sentiment

Bearish Gold eased lower over the last 24 hours with markets waiting to hear on the next stage of US monetary policy. With QE2 due to shut down at the end of June, traders believe an announcement of a further round of stimulus will be the driver of prices in the near term. While we remain in a news vacuum, the market expects gold to drift lower.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4700 Support 1.4560 Market Sentiment

Bullish EUR pulled back from 1.4700 over the last 24 hours but looks to have found some support around 1.4560. The EUR is likely to see some volatility ahead of tonights rate decision at 9.45pm AEST. Traders are watching carefully for a topside breakout, with more aggressive bulls building positions at these lower levels.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6450 Support 1.6340 Market Sentiment

Consolidating

In the lead-up to tonights rate decision, at which the BoE is seen as likely to keep rates steady at 0.50%, we have seen an increasingly amount of consolation as the market. The triangle formation is traditionally seen as neutral and traders will be waiting for tonights move in order to generate a tradable break in either direction.

USD/JPY
Resistance 80.60/1.00 Support 79.60 Market Sentiment

Bearish
The USD/JPY broke below important support at 80.00 over the last 24 hours, but we have also seen a strong bounce from the next level of long-term support at 79.60. In the near term, we could see small bounce, with the potential to reach back to 80.60 or higher. Overall, however, the market is waiting for the next opportunity to short, with a retracement to 80.60 or break or 79.60 seen as the best levels.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 85.80 Support 84.30 Market Sentiment

Bearish Our view is rapidly shifting on the AUD/JPY with the most recent price action changing this consolidation pattern from neutral to bearish. All eyes are now on a break of 84.30 to take new short positions, while a move back to resistance at 85.80 also appears to be sellable.

OIL
Resistance 102 Support 100 Market Sentiment

Bullish The tone has rapidly changed in the crude market after Saudi Arabias push to increase supply, to keep prices lower, was blocked by other oil-producing nations at last nights OPEC meeting. This is clearly bullish for crude and oil has now broken above the consolation pattern that defined trading over the last few days. Support now seen at 100, with resistance at 102.

Economic Calendar & Pivot Points

F/Cast
NZD: RBNZ Gov. Bollard AUD: Unemployment Rate AUD: Employment Change GBP: Trade Balance GBP: Asset Purchase Facility GBP: Official Bank Rate AUD/USD 1.0628 1.0832 1.0771 1.0710 1.0649 1.0588 1.0527 1.0466 4.9% 25.6K -7.5B 0.50% XAU/USD 1537.07 1558.14 1551.47 1543.91 1537.24 1529.68 1523.01 1515.45

Last
4.9% -22.1K -7.7B 0.50% EUR/USD 1.4578 1.4798 1.4744 1.4673 1.4619 1.4548 1.4494 1.4423 GBP: MPC Rate Statement EUR: Minimum Bid Rate CAD: Trade Balance EUR: ECB Press Conference USD: Trade Balance USD: Unemployment Claims GBP/USD 1.6394 1.6550 1.6499 1.6450 1.6399 1.6350 1.6299 1.6250 USD/JPY 79.91 80.68 80.44 80.17 79.93 79.66 79.42 79.15

F/Cast
1.25% 0.4B -48.6B 424K AUD/JPY 84.92 87.24 86.56 85.80 85.12 84.36 83.68 82.92

Last
1.25% 0.6B -48.2B 422K CRUDE OIL 100.78 106.38 104.13 102.51 100.26 98.64 96.39 94.77

Pivot Points Open R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

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