Are You Always Gonna Be Late?

Chapter 6 was all about probability distributions and binomial distributions. The first
lesson was introducing random variables and probability distributions. Random variables are
usually quantitative (a numerical amount) and they are the value that x takes on in a given
experiment or observation is a chance or random outcome. There are 2 different types of
random variables: discrete or continuous. Discrete random variables can take on only a finite
number of values or a countable number of values. An example of a discrete random variable
would be something like the number of houses in a specific neighborhood or the number of fatal
accidents in one year. A continuous random variable can take on any of the countless number
of values in a line interval. An example of a continuous random variable would be the amount of
rainfall in a city or the heat gained by a ceiling fan for one hour.
Probability distributions are another thing that was in the first lesson. A probability
distribution is an assignment of probabilities to each distinct value of a discrete random variable
or to each interval of values of a continuous random variable. There are a couple different key
components. The probability distribution has a probability assigned to each distinct value of the
random variable and the sum of all the assigned probabilities must be one. Another thing that
was in chapter 6 was how to calculate the mean and standard deviation of a probability
distribution. The mean tells us that all probability distributions must add up to one. You can
calculate the mean of a probability distribution by using this formula: μ = Σx * P (x), where μ
represents the mean and the expected value of x. Standard deviation measures the scattering
of the probability distribution with respect to the mean. You can calculate the standard deviation
by using the formula:σ =√ ❑. Another thing that was included was expected value. It is shown as
X and a weighted average for probability distribution.
Binomial distributions were another large part of chapter 6. They are a type of
distribution that can only have 2 outcomes, something like yes or no or heads and tails.
Binomial experiments have a couple of different key components and features. Some of them
include a fixed number of trials. The number of trials is represented by the letter n. The trials are
independent and repeated under identical conditions. Like we stated before, each experiment
has only 2 outcomes. For each of the trials, each outcome is represented by either that of
success, p, or that of failure, q. The probabilities of p and q always have to add up to one. The
last thing that is represented in a binomial experiment is r, which is the number of trials that
result in successes. There are a few different ways to compute binomial probabilities. The
n! r (n−r )
formula that is used to calculate binomial probabilities by hand is P(r )= ⋅ p ⋅q .
r !(n−r )!
The formula used to calculate binomial probabilities by using a calculator is P(r )=¿ nCr
r (n−r )
⋅ p ⋅q . The last way that can be used is the binomial distribution table. To use this, look
through the number of trials(n), and then look at the number of successes, r, that the problem is
asking for. That will take you to the probability of success or failure for the problem. To find the
mean of a binomial distribution, you multiply the probability of success by the number of trials.
This will tell you how symmetrical the distribution is. Standard deviation can be found by using
the equation σ = √(npq). The standard deviation tells a person how spread out the samples in the
distribution are.
Question: You struggle to get to work on time in the morning, and only make it about 75% of the
time. What is the probability you make it to work on time at least 8 of the next 10 days? What’s
the probability you’re not late at all?

Our scenario fits the criteria for the binomial experiment because it has two outcomes;
you are either late or on time for work no in between. Every time someone goes to work whether
they were late or on time the day before it will not affect the outcome of the next day. The
easiest way to calculate the probability of the scenario is to use the binomial table. Using the
binomial table allows us to collect all of the data and more without even using a calculator or
handwriting any calculations. We also chose the binomial table, because the probability we
were given is in our binomial table packet.
When looking at our scenario there is a total of 10 days which is the variable “n”, or the
number of trials. In our scenario they want to know what's the probability of being on time 8
times; which in this case would be 8 successes. The number of successes is referred to as the
variable “r” in the binomial table. The last variable we need is “p” or the probability of success for
every one trial. In our scenario above there is a 75%, or .75, chance of making it on time. Now
that we have our three variables we can now use them on the binomial table. We first used our
“n”, 10 , and then used our “r” to find the 8th row. This row has a number of decimals that are
different probabilities of something occurring. If we use our “p” .75 at the top and follow it down
to the 8th row of 10 trials. Since our scenario says at least 8 times we need to add up the
decimals from the 8th, 9th, and 10th row. After completing these steps correctly we end up
with .526, which means there is a 52.6% of someone showing up to work on time at least 8 out
of the 10 times.
The second part of our scenario is wanting to know the probability of showing up on time
10 out of the 10 days. To find this we want to use the same method with the binomial table, but
we will only be looking at section 10, row 10, and column .75. If we follow the column down to
our row we land on .056. This means there is a 5.6% chance that they will show up on time 10
out of the 10 days for work.
To find the mean of our binomial distribution scenario we need to use the formula μ= np.
To use this formula we simply plug in our n and p, so we have 10 x .75 = 7.5. 7.5 means that
the average number of days that someone would show up to work on time in our scenario is
somewhere between 7 and 8 times out of our 10 days. To find the standard deviation we need
to use the equation σ = √(npq). Just like the mean we plug our variables in, √(10 x 8 x .75), and we end
with a standard deviation of 7.75. This means that our range of days that someone would be on time
according to the mean is 7.5.