Chapter 1 - Water Demand PDF

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Chapter-01 WATER DEMAND AND POPULATION FORECASTING.
1.1 INTRODUCTION
 Water is the basic and primary need of all vital life processes. Also a resource
which affects both qualitatively and quantitatively all kind of human activity.
 We have to supply a desired quality of water to the consumer but the quality
of water at the source is variable. So the role of engineer comes to forefront.
 All technical aspects involves in the collection of water from a source and
supplying it to the consumer are covered in Raw Water Engineer or Water
Supply Engineering.
 Some Important Definitions :

(a) Raw Water :
.
(b) Contaminated Water : Water is said to be contaminated if it
contains________________________________________________.
(c) Polluted water:- water contains ____________________________, making it

unfit for drinking and domestic use.
 So it can be safely said that all ________________________water is always

_______________________but it is not necessary for a_____________________
water to be ______________________________.
Example : (i) Muddy water is polluted but not contaminated

(ii) River water at the located of a outfall sewer is contaminated
(d) Wholesome or Potable Water : The water which does not contains any
chemicals or impurities in excess that can harm the human body nor any
harmful bacteria and micro-organism. Such water is safe and potent for
drinking, is commonly referred to as wholesome or potable water.
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 Raw Water Engineering or Water Supply Engineering can be studied broadly in

three heads.
 To design any raw water scheme, first thing that is to be determined is water
demand. Based on the demand we can select a source of water which can
satisfy the demand till the end of design period, for which the entire treatment
plant is designed.
 A source can be either surface or sub-surface source.
 Then we have determine the quality parameters of raw water, to decide the
degree of treatment to be given to raw water.
 After treatment the water can be pumped directly to the distribution system
or it may be pumped to a service Reservoir or both.
1.2 WATER DEMAND

 To determine total demand and average rate of flow, the following quantities
are to be recorded.
(a) Annual Volume : _______________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________
 Once we observe the Magnitude of Annual Volume, we can now
mathematically Calculate.
(b) Annual Average Daily Draft (AADD) :
AADD = ------------------------------------------------
 AADD is reported in ______________
(c) Annual Average per Capita Daily Draft (AACDD)
Note
________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
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1.2.1 Types Of Water Demand

 The various type of water demand in a city may be broken down into the
following class.
(A) Domestic Water Demand
 This includes the water required in residential building for______________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
 This demand increases _______________________________________________.
 For city with full flushing system this demand lies in the range of _____
______________________________________________________________________
 Based on observation it is generally seen that the Domestic Water Demand is
about _____________________________.
MINIMUM DOMESTIC WATER CONSUMPTION (L/C/D)

USE INDIAN LIG COLONIES IN
TOWNS AND SMALL TOWN AND
CITIES CITIES
(i) Drinking
(ii) Cooking
(iii) Bathing
(iv) Washing Clothes
(v) Cleaning of house + Utensils
(vi) Lawn Watering and
Gardening
(vii) Flushing of Water Closet
etc.
200 L/C/D 135 L/C/D
(B) Industrial Water Demand

 The quantity of water required _________________________________________
______________________________________________________.
 Depending upon the extent of industrialization, the industrial water demand
may vary in the range of____________________________.
 ____________________________________________________________________________
TYPE OF INDUSTRY MATERIAL USED UNIT WATER

OF PRODUCTION REQUIREMENT
(In Kilolitres)
1. Automobile vehicle 40
2. Leather (Tanning) tonne 40
3. Paper tonne (200 – 400)
4. Petroleum Refinery tonne (1 – 2)
5. Steel tonne (200 – 250)
6. Sugar tonne (1 – 2)
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NOTE :
(a) ____________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
(b)__________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________.
(C) Institutional and Commercial Water Demand


______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
 An average demand of _____________________can be included under this head.
Magnitude of demand ___________________________________________
___________________________________
(D) Demand for Public Use

 It includes the quantity of water required for public utility purposes such as
watering of public park, gardening, washing and sprinkling on roads, use in
public fountains etc.
 Only a nominal amount___________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
(E) Fire Demand

 In the design of modern public water supply scheme provision for firefighting
should be suitably incorporated.
 The quantity of water required to supply water at a pressure of (100 –
2
150) kN/ m and for a period of (4– 5) hours, should be stored in over head
reservoirs.
 Fire hydrants are usually spaced at (100 – 150) m, depending upon
the___________________________________________________________________.
 In case of fire demand it is __________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
Calculation of Fire Demand for a large City
 In case of breakout of fire, three jet streams are simultaneously thrown from
each fire hydrant. One on the burning property and one each on adjacent
property on either side of burning property to prevent the spread of fire. The
discharge through each jet should be 1100 litres/minute.
 For example p = 50 lakhs, there is 6 fire break out in a day and each fire
stands for 4 hours, then the per capita fire demand can be calculated as
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 As the per capita fire demand is very small hence it is generally ignored in
calculation of total water Demand.
 Various empirical relationships have been suggested to calculate the rate of
fire demand. In all the relationship the discharge is expressed as a function of
population
(i) As per GOI Manual (Q) =
(ii) Freeman’s Formula (Q) =
(iii) Kuichling’s Formula (Q) =
(iv) National Board of Fire Under Writer's Formula(Q)
(V) Buston's formula(Q)=
 All the above formulas are empirical in nature hence they are accurate in the
area it is developed.
 Second limitation is that the formulas does not distinguish the difference in
demand for a industrial and residential area, As the probability of occurrence
of fire will be definitely more in Industrial Area.
 Once such attempt was done in calculating the fire fighting demand for the
city of Jabalpur, where the recurrence interval of fire was considered in
calculation of fire demand
4360 R 0.275
Q= L/min
(t  12)0.757
R = Recurrence Interval of fire in Years (R  1)
t = Duration of fire in minutes (Min value = 30 min)
Q. Compute the fire demand for a city with population of 1,80,000
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(F) Water Required to Compensate Losses and Thefts :

 Losses and theft are not demand in true sense. But if the magnitude of losses
and theft is not considered in the calculation of Raw Water Design Scheme
then we will not be able to meet the other water Demands.
 It includes the losses due to ___________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
 It accounts for _________________________________________________________
Summary Of Total AACDD Demand
(i ) Domestic Water Demand  (135  225) L/P/d

(ii ) Industrial Demand  (50  450) L/P/d
(iii ) Institutional and Commercial Demand  (20  50) L/P/d
(iv ) Demand for Public Use  10 L/P/d
(v ) Losses and Thefts  55 L/P/d
Total Demand  (240  360) L/ P/d
NOTE As per IS1172-1993,total demand is taken as_________________
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1.3 FACTORS AFFECTING PER CAPITA DEMAND

 The annual average per capita demand of water varies considerably for
different towns and cities. Hence we must consider the factors which are
affecting per capita demand, so that a rational value of per capita demand can
be fixed for design purposes.
(i) Size of City :

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
(ii) Climatic Condition :

______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
(iii) Standard of Living:

____________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
(iv) Industrial and Commercial Activity:

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
(v) Development of Sewerage Facilities :

____________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
 The following factors enlisted below will affect the consumption of water
rather than demand of water.
(i) Quality of Water Supplies

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
(ii) Pressure of Distribution System :

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
(iii) System of Supply :

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
(iv) Policy of Metering :

____________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
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1.4 VARIATION IN DEMAND (OR DRAFT)
 Annual Average Daily Demand (AADD) cannot be used to design the

components of a water distribution system because there is wide variation in
the use of water with different seasons, different months of the year, different
days of the months, different hours of the day.
 Hence the design the components of water treatments with a suitable factor of
safety which can take into account the variation between the maximum and
mean value of quantities.
FOS =-------------------------------------
NOTE :__________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
(i) Maximum Daily Demand(𝑸𝑫𝑴 ):
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(ii) Maximum Hourly Consumption of Maximum day or Peak Demand
 The above fluctuations were represented empirically by GOODRICH

EQUATION
If p = Ratio of Maximum Demand to Average Demand
Maximum Demand
=
Average Demand
p  1.80 t 0.10 ( t  1 day )

t = time in days
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.
 As the fluctuation in the hourly demand was found to be maximum. Hence
the fluctuation was called as Peak Factor.
NOTE : The Factor of 1.5 is called________________________________.
 The variation of peak factor with population
 Coincident Draft(𝑪𝑫 ) can be defined as
 Hence for design we consider the maximum between___________________.
1.5 DESIGN PERIOD AND DESIGN DISCHARGE

 The future period or the number of years for which provision is made in
designing the capacities of the various components of the water Supply
Scheme is known as Design Period.
.
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COMPONENTS DESIGN DESIGN

LIFE DISCHARGE
1. Storage Dams
2. Pumps
3. Water Treatment Plant
4. Pipes before Service

Reservoir
5. Over head Reservoirs
6. Pipes in Distribution System
Q. For a population of 2.5 lakhs, estimate the various kinds of drafts which
may be required to be recorded for an average water consumption of 200
L/C/Day. Also determine the required capacities of various components
of the water supply scheme.
Sol.
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1.6 POPULATION FORECASTING
 To predict the future population we need to first know the factors affecting
population
(a) Birth rate
(b) Death rate
(c) Migration
 The population tends to follow a growth characteristic curve called the logistic
curve, S-curve or Auto-catalyst curve.
For Phase – I
For Phase – II
For Phase – III
 Before using any mathematical formulation for population forecasting, we have

to first determine the rate of growth of population based on the record of past
population of decade.
 Once we exactly locate the phase under which the growth of population is
taking place, then we can formulate mathematical expressions for population
forecasting which can fit into the existing data.
METHODS OF POPULATION FORECASTING

Various methods of populating forecasting can be as follows :
(A) Arithmetic Increase Method
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Year Population (in Inc. In

Lakhs) Population
1980 32
1990 42
2000 56
2010 73
B) GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD/UNIFORM INCREASING METHOD
Year Population Increase in Percentage

(Lakhs) Population increase/Decade
1980 32
1990 42
2000 56
2010 73
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(C) Incremental Increase or Method of Varying Increment Method
Year Population Increase in Incremental

Population Increase
(Increase on the
Increase)
1980 32
1990 42
2000 56
2010 73
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 For the data given we can calculate the population of 2020 and 2030 by using
all the three methods.
Year Arithmetic Increase Geometric Incremental

Method Increase Increase
Method Method
2020
(n = 1)
2030
(n = 2)
 As we can clearly see that _____________________________Method gives the

highest value of forecasted population. __________________________method
gives the lowest and the _____________________________ method gives an
intermediate value between the two extremes
NOTE :
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Q. The Present Population of the community is 56,000 with an average

water consumption of 8400 m3 / day. The existing water treatment plant
has a design capacity of 12000 m3 / day. It is expected that the
population will increase to 68000 and 88000 in the next two decades.
Calculate the no. of years from now the treatment plant will reach its
design capacity. Assume an incremental increase in population growth.
Sol.
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(D) DECREASING RATE OF GROWTH METHOD
Year Population Increase in % Increase Decrease in

Population in % Increase
Population
1970 250,000
1980 280,000
1990 325,000
2000 400,000
2010 450,000
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(E) SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD

 In this method a graph is plotted between the population and time for the
existing data.
 The curve so obtained can be extended to forecast the design population.
Year Population (In

Lakhs)
1950 2.6
1960 2.9
1970 3.4
1980 4.0
1990 4.5
2000 5.5
2010 6.4
NOTE:
 Some of the advanced method of Population Forecasting are :

(i) Comparative Graphical Method.
(ii) Master plant method or zone method.
(iii) Logistic curve method.
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(F) COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD

 In this method, we first select cities having condition and characteristics
similar to the city whose future population is to be estimated.
 It is assumed that the city selected will develop as the similar city developed
in the past.
Example :
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Town – A 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7
Town – B 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.3 5.0
Town – C 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.0
Town – X 0.5 0.7 0.95 1.3 1.7
Now for the given data, we have to take the population of 1.7 as the base and
determine the population of next consecutive decades.
Town-A 1967 1987

1.7
Town – B 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
1.7
Town – C 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1.7
(Determine the ordinates by extrapolation of Graph)
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(G) MASTER PLAN METHOD OR ZONNING METHOD
(H) Ratio Method or Apportionment Method :
LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD

 As the population growth of any city will follow a logistic curve. Hence we
develop a mathematical equation of logistic curve.
 To develop a mathematical equation, we need to first identify some points on
the curve.
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As per P.F. verhulst the mathematical equation for the AD segment of the
curve.
P  P  Ps  Po 
loge  s   loge     K Ps . t
 P   Po 
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Q. A city has following recorded population.
Year Population
1980 50,000
2000 110,000
2020 160,000
Estimate the saturation population, expected population in 2040.
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Chapter-01 WATER DEMAND AND POPULATION FORECASTING.

 Some Important Definitions :

(c) Polluted water:- water contains ____________________________, making it

 So it can be safely said that all ________________________water is always

Example : (i) Muddy water is polluted but not contaminated

 Raw Water Engineering or Water Supply Engineering can be studied broadly in

1.2 WATER DEMAND

(a) Annual Volume : _______________________________________________________

(b) Annual Average Daily Draft (AADD) :

 AADD is reported in ______________

(c) Annual Average per Capita Daily Draft (AACDD)

1.2.1 Types Of Water Demand

MINIMUM DOMESTIC WATER CONSUMPTION (L/C/D)

(B) Industrial Water Demand

TYPE OF INDUSTRY MATERIAL USED UNIT WATER

(C) Institutional and Commercial Water Demand

(D) Demand for Public Use

(E) Fire Demand

(ii) Freeman’s Formula (Q) =

(iii) Kuichling’s Formula (Q) =

(iv) National Board of Fire Under Writer's Formula(Q)

(V) Buston's formula(Q)=

Q. Compute the fire demand for a city with population of 1,80,000

(F) Water Required to Compensate Losses and Thefts :

Summary Of Total AACDD Demand

(i ) Domestic Water Demand  (135  225) L/P/d

NOTE As per IS1172-1993,total demand is taken as_________________

1.3 FACTORS AFFECTING PER CAPITA DEMAND

(i) Size of City :

(ii) Climatic Condition :

(iii) Standard of Living:

(iv) Industrial and Commercial Activity:

(v) Development of Sewerage Facilities :

(i) Quality of Water Supplies

(ii) Pressure of Distribution System :

(iii) System of Supply :

(iv) Policy of Metering :

1.4 VARIATION IN DEMAND (OR DRAFT)

 Annual Average Daily Demand (AADD) cannot be used to design the

(i) Maximum Daily Demand(𝑸𝑫𝑴 ):

(ii) Maximum Hourly Consumption of Maximum day or Peak Demand

 The above fluctuations were represented empirically by GOODRICH

p  1.80 t 0.10 ( t  1 day )

 Coincident Draft(𝑪𝑫 ) can be defined as

 Hence for design we consider the maximum between___________________.

1.5 DESIGN PERIOD AND DESIGN DISCHARGE

COMPONENTS DESIGN DESIGN

3. Water Treatment Plant

4. Pipes before Service

6. Pipes in Distribution System

1.6 POPULATION FORECASTING

For Phase – III

 Before using any mathematical formulation for population forecasting, we have

METHODS OF POPULATION FORECASTING

(A) Arithmetic Increase Method

Year Population (in Inc. In

B) GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD/UNIFORM INCREASING METHOD