Unit 8: Linking Probability to Statistical Inference

Module 19 – Distribution of sample proportions and means

1. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion

Example:
Recall that a 2007 report by the Pew Research Center stated that about 10% of the
3.1 million 18- to 24-year-olds in the United States were enrolled in a community
college. Let’s suppose we randomly selected 100 young adults in this age group and
found that 15% of the sample was enrolled in a community college.
What is the probability that a random sample of this size has 15% or more enrolled
in a community college?
Solution:
 Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 & (1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 100 𝑝= 0.10 and 𝑝̂ = 0.15

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 100 * 0.1 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 (1 − 𝑝) = 100*0.9 = 90

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard error =
√ p(1− p)
n
=
√
0.1×(1−0.1)
100
=0.03

0.15−0.10 0.05
Z= = =1.67

√ 0.1×(1−0.1) 0.03
100

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

P ( ^p ≥ 0.15| p=0.10¿=P ( Z ≥1.67 )=0.0475

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that it is true that 10% of the population (3.1 million) of 18- to 24-
year-olds are enrolled at a community college, then it is unusual to see a random sample of 100
with 15% or more enrolled. The probability is as low as about 0.0475.
Practice Question 1: the 2008 presidential election, newspapers reported that Obama received
40% of the white male vote. If this is true, what is the probability that a random sample of 200
white male voters had less than 35% voting for Obama?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 &(1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 200 𝑝 = 0.40 and 𝑝̂ = 0.35

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 200 * 0.40 = 80 𝑎𝑛𝑑 (1 − 𝑝) = 200 * 0.60 = 120

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard error =
√
p(1− p)
n
=
√
0. 40×(1−0. 40)
2 00
=0.0346

0.3 5−0. 4 0 −0.05

Z= = =−1.445

√ 0. 40 ×(1−0. 40) 0.03 46

2 00

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

P ( ^p < 0.3 5| p=0. 4 0 ¿=P ( Z ←1. 445 )=0. 0743

Step4: Conclusion: The chance that a random sample of 200 white males will have, at
most, 35% of them supporting Obama if 40% of this population supports Obama is
0.0742 which is about 7.42%.
Practice Question 2:
Suppose it is known that 43% of Americans own an iPhone. If a random sample of 50
Americans were surveyed, what is the probability that the proportion of the sample
who owned an iPhone is between 45% and 50%?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 &(1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 50 𝑝= 0.43 and 𝑝̂1 = 0.45 𝑝̂2 = 0.50

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 50*0.43 = 21.5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 (1 − 𝑝) = 50*0.57 = 28.5

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard error =
n √
p(1− p)
=
√
0. 43× 0.57
50
=0. 07

( )
0.45−0.43 p−^p 0.50−0.43
P ( 0.45< ^p <0.50 ) =p < <

√
0.07 p(1− p) 0.07
n
¿ p ( 0.2857< Z<1 ) =0.8413−0.6126=0.2287

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that the true proportion of Americans who own an iPhone
is 43%, then there would be a 22.87% chance that we would see a sample proportion
between 45% and 50% when the sample size is 50 that own an iPhone.
 2. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
Example:
When a production machine is properly calibrated, it requires an average of 25
seconds per unit produced, with a standard deviation of 3 seconds. For a simple
random sample of n = 36 units, the sample mean is found to be 26.2 seconds per
unit. When the machine is properly calibrated, what is the probability that the
mean for a simple random sample of this size will be at least 26.2 seconds?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛 ≥ 30)

𝑥̅ = 26.2 𝜇= 25 and 𝜎 =3

𝑛 = 36 which is greater than 30, therefore, the normality condition is met

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard Error:
σ 3
σ X= = =0.5
√ n √36
X−μ 26.2−25
Z= = =2.4 0
σ 0.5
√n
Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model
P ( X ≥26.2 ) =P ( Z ≥ 2.40 )=0.0082

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that a production machine is properly calibrated, the probability
that the mean for a simple random sample of this size 36 will be at least 26.2 seconds is about
0.0082
 Practice:
The numerical population of grade point averages at a college has mean
2.61 and standard deviation 0.5 if a random sample of size 100 is taken from the
population, what is the probability that the sample mean will be between 2.51 and
2.71
Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛 ≥ 30 )

𝑥̅1 =2.51 𝑥̅2 = 2.71 𝜇= 2.61 and 𝜎 = 0.5

𝑛 =100 which is also greater than 30; hence, the normality condition is obeyed.

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

σ 0.5
Standard Error: σ X = = =0.05
√ n √100

( )
2.51−2.61 X −μ 2.71−2.61
P ( 2.51< X <2.71 )= p < <
0.05 σ 0.05
√n
¿ p (−2<Z <2 )

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

¿ p (−2<Z <2 )=0.9773−0.0228=0.9545

Step4: Conclusion: if a random sample of size 100 is taken from the population of grade point
averages at the college, the probability that the sample mean will be between 2.51 and 2.71 is
about 0.9544 which is 95.4%