भारत सरकार GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (Ministry of Earth

पृ थ्वी विज्ञान मँ तर् ालय Sciences)
बाढ़ मौसम कार्यालय, है दराबाद Flood Met. Office,Hyderabad
फ़ोन न./ फैक्स न. 040-2790 4909 Phone and Fax: 040-2790 4909
e mail: fmohyderabad@gmail.com

संदर्भ संख्या एफएम/चक्रवात आसनी स्पेशल क्यूपीएफ बुलेटिन/एचवाईडी एफएमओ -03/2022 जारी करने की तिथि और समय: 11.05.2022 0930
/Ref No. FM/Cyclone special QPF Bulletin/HYD FMO –03/2022 Date & time of issue: 11.05.2022 09300 IST

चक्रवात आसनी स्पेशल हयड्रोमेट बुल्लेटिन/HYDROMET BULLETIN

I SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
The Cyclonic Storm ‘Asani’ (pronounced as Asani) over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northnortheastwards with a speed of 6 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centered
at 0830 hours IST of 11th May, over same region near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 81.4°E, about 40 km southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 140 km
southwest of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh), 280 km southwest of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 520 km southwest of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 630 km southwest of Puri
(Odisha). It is very likely to move northnortheastwards along Narsapur, Yanam, Kakinada, Tuni & Visakhapatnam coasts till evening of today and emerge into westcentral Bay
of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh coasts by today night. It is likely to weaken further into a depression by 12th May morning.

The trough now runs from cyclonic circulation associated with the Cyclonic Storm to west Vidarbha and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

II(a) DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (QPF) :

QPF(mm)

SNO Basin Name Sub basin code/Name Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5

(05/11/2022)* (05/12/2022)* (05/13/2022)* (05/14/2022)* (05/15/2022)*

गोदावरी/ 0.1-10 0 0 0 0
G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER GODAVARI
1 GODAVARI
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA 0 0 0 0 0

3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA 0 0 0 0 0

4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA 0.1-10 0 0 0 0

G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

5 GODAVARI
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
 7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA 0 0 0 0 0

8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA 0 0 0 0 0

9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA 0.1-10 0 0.1-10 0 0

G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER 26-37 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

10 GODAVARI
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

12 G12/साबारी/SABARI 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0 0

13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

14 K10/मूसी/MUSI 0.1-10 0 0 0 0

15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

16 K12/मुनेरु/MUNNERU 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

QPF(mm)

SNO Basin Name Sub basin code/Name Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5

(05/11/2022)* (05/12/2022)* (05/13/2022)* (05/14/2022)* (05/15/2022)*

गोदावरी/ 0.1-10 0 0 0 0
G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER GODAVARI
1 GODAVARI
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA 0 0 0 0 0

3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA 0 0 0 0 0

4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA 0.1-10 0 0 0 0

G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

5 GODAVARI
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA 0 0 0 0 0

8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA 0 0 0 0 0

9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA 0.1-10 0 0.1-10 0 0

G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER 26-37 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

10 GODAVARI
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI 0.1-10 0.1-10 0.1-10 0 0

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
 12 G12/साबारी/SABARI 11-25 11-25 0.1-10 0 0

13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

14 K10/मस
ू ी/MUSI 0.1-10 0 0 0 0

15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

16 K12/मुनेरु/MUNNERU 11-25 0.1-10 0 0 0

II(b) DETERMINISTIC FORECAST(DISTRIBUTION)

INTENSITY & SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

SN
Basin Name Sub basin code/Name Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5
O
I D I D I D I D I D
गोदावरी/ G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER
1 GODAVARI GODAVARI VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE
5 GODAVARI VL ISOL VL ISOL VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU VL ISOL VL ISOL VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA VL ISOL DRY DRY VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER
10 GODAVARI M/H FWS VL ISOL VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI VL ISOL VL ISOL VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
12 G12/साबारी/SABARI L/M SCT L/M SCT VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA L/M SCT VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
14 K10/मूसी/MUSI VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU L/M SCT VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
16 K12/मन
ु ेरु/MUNNERU L/M SCT VL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
III. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

SN
Basin Name Sub basin code/Name
O HEAVYRAINFALL WARNING

Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5

I D I D I D I D I D
गोदावरी/ G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER
1 GODAVARI GODAVARI NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE
5 GODAVARI NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER
10 GODAVARI VH ISOL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
12 G12/साबारी/SABARI H Isol NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA h Isol NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
 14 K10/मूसी/MUSI NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU NIL NIL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil
16 K12/मन
ु ेरु/MUNNERU H ISOL NIL NIL nil nil NIL NIL nil nil

IV. PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

Basin PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

Sub basin code/Name
Name Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5

51-100

51-100
51-100

51-100

51-100
0.1-10

0.1-10

0.1-10

0.1-10

0.1-10
11-25

11-25

26-50

11-25

11-25
26-50
11-25

26-50

26-50

26-50
>100

>100

>100

>100

>100
0

0
75-100 5-25
G1/ अपर गो दा वरी /UPPER GODAVARI 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G3/प र्णा /PURNA 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
ू
G4/मंजिरा /MANJIRA 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G5//मध् य गो दा वरी MIDDLE75-100 5-25
GODAVARI 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
GODAVARI

G6/मा नेरू/MANERU 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G7/पेनगंगा /PENGANGA 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G8/वर्धा /WARDHA 75-100 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-10025-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G9/वैनगंगा /WAINGANGA 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 25-50 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 75-1000-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G10/निचला गो दा वरी /LOWER5-25 50-75
GODAVARI 50-75 25-50 5-25 0-5 25-50 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G11/इंद्रावती /INDRAVATHI 25-50 50-75 25-50 5-25 5-25 0-5 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
G12/सा बा री /SABARI 5-25 50-75 50-75 25-50 0-5 0-5 25-50 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
25-50 50-75
K7/निचला कष् णा/LOWER KRISHNA 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
ृ
KRISHNA

K10/मसी /MUSI 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
ू
K11/पलेरू/PALERU 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
K12/मनेरु/MUNNERU 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 50-75 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5 25-50 5-25 0-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
ु

V. OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT FOUR DAYS:

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
 गोदावरी/GODAVARI Day_6 Day_7
G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER GODAVARI No large change No large change

G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA No large change No large change

G3/पूर्णा/PURNA No large change No large change

G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA No large change No large change

G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE
No large change No large change
GODAVARI
G6/मानेरू/MANERU No large change No large change

G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA No large change No large change

G8/वर्धा/WARDHA No large change No large change

G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA No large change No large change

G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER
No large change No large change
GODAVARI
G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI No large change No large change

G12/साबारी/SABARI No large change No large change

कृष्णा/KRISHNA
K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA No large change No large change

K10/मूसी/MUSI No large change No large change

K11/पलेरू/PALERU No large change No large change

K12/मुनेरु/MUNNERU No large change No large change

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
VI. STATIONS RECORDED SIG. RAINFALL (≥5cm) RECORDED AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY:

SNO Basin Name NAME OF SUB BASIN RAINFALL ABOVE 5 CMS

गोदावरी/
1 G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER GODAVARI
GODAVARI NIL
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA NIL
3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA NIL
4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA NIL
G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE
5
GODAVARI NIL
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU NIL
7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA NIL
8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA NIL
9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA NIL
G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER
10
GODAVARI NIL
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI NIL
12 G12/साबारी/SABARI Narsipatnam(Visakhapatnam)7;
13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA NIL
14 K10/मूसी/MUSI NIL
15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU NIL
16 K12/मुनेरु/MUNNERU NIL

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
VII.REALISED BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY:

SNO Basin Name Sub basin code/Name REALIZED AVERAGE RAINFALL (mm)
गोदावरी/
G1/ अपर गोदावरी/UPPER GODAVARI
1 GODAVARI 0.0
2 G2/प्रवर:/PRAVARA 0.0
3 G3/पूर्णा/PURNA 0.0
4 G4/मंजिरा/MANJIRA 0.0
5 G5//मध्य गोदावरीMIDDLE GODAVARI 0.0
6 G6/मानेरू/MANERU 0.0
7 G7/पेनगंगा/PENGANGA 0.0
8 G8/वर्धा/WARDHA 0.0
9 G9/वैनगंगा/WAINGANGA 0.9
10 G10/निचला गोदावरी/LOWER GODAVARI 0.9
11 G11/इंद्रावती/INDRAVATHI 1.8
12 G12/साबारी/SABARI 10.0
13 कृष्णा/KRISHNA K7/निचला कृष्णा/LOWER KRISHNA 2.9
14 K10/मूसी/MUSI 0.7
15 K11/पलेरू/PALERU 3.8
16 K12/मन
ु ेरु/MUNNERU 0.4

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day
 प्रभारी निदे शक /DIRECTOR – IN – CHARGE
बाढ़ मौसम कार्यालय, है दराबाद/FLOOD MET.OFFICE, HYDERABAD

Ph.No. 8983358759, 040-27904909

* KINDLY NOTE REALIZED AVERAGE RAINFALL DATA TAKEN FROM GIS MAP

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day