1. How many cups of tea were consumed in Mumbai last month?

First, clarify the question. Then, start solving.

As a first step, inform the interviewers that each day of the week is being considered equally.
Tea consumption might likely decrease during the weekend as people do not go to the
office—so you might consider that as well. We shall go with the first assumption.
The population of Mumbai is 18 crore; we shall round it up to 2 crores. 20% of this
population is assumed to be children who do not drink tea. Another assumption is that of the
remaining population, 20% are habitual drinkers, 30% are regular drinkers, 20% are
occasional drinkers, and 10% are non-drinkers.
The habitual drinkers may be said to have three cups of tea in a day. Regular drinkers may be
said to have one cup of tea in a day. The tea consumption of occasion drinkers maybe once a
week, and that of non-drinkers none at all.
Calculating proportions-
Habitual – 3 x 0.2 x 7 = 4.2
Regular – 1 x 0.3 x 7 = 2.1
Occasional – 1 x 0.2 x 1 = 0.2
Non – 0
Total = 6.5
Total cups per week = 6.5 x 1.6 crore = 10.4 crore

2. How many iPhones are currently being used in India?

Clarify with the interviewers whether the question is about only a single version of the
iPhone or all versions put together. Here, we shall assume that all iPhones put together are
being talked about.
The first step toward solving this query will be segmentation. There are many ways in which
India’s population can be segmented. Here, we shall first assume that only people who have
attained a working age and are under the age of retirement own an iPhone. Children and old
citizens do not own an iPhone. This removes 20% of the population as children and 20% as
senior citizens.
The next assumption will be that only the upper stratum of India’s income range can afford
an iPhone. This metric assumes that only 5% of the eligible citizens from the previous filter
can own an iPhone.
Now, it is not necessary that every member of this upper stratum will own an iPhone. Other
options, such as OnePlus, Samsung, etc., are also available. However, a fair assumption
would be that 50% of the eligible population from the previous filter owns an iPhone.
Calculating the proportion of the population that owns an iPhone –
0.6 x 0.05 x 0.5 = 0.015
Total iPhones in India = 0.015 x 130 crore = 1.95 crore

3. How many cars are there in Delhi?

Clarify whether the interviewer assumes just personal vehicles or all cars, as Delhi is also a
government seat. The assumption in this solution will be that only personal vehicles are being
talked about.
Firstly, the population of Delhi is 2 crores, rounding up. The average size of a family in Delhi
may be said to be four people, it being an urban region mostly composed of nuclear families.
Further segmentation may be as per income class or level. As is customary, 30% of people
may be said to belong to the lower class, 50% to the middle class, and 20% to the upper class.
The calculation metric will be the number of cars per family. Among middle-class families,
50% may be said to own a car, and the other 50% own no car. Among the upper-class
families, it may be said that all families own an average of two cars.
Calculating proportions-
Middle class families – 0.5 x 0.5 x 1 = 0.25
Upper class families – 0.2 x 2 = 0.4
Total = 0.65
Total cars in Delhi = 2 crore * 0.65/4 = 32.5 lakhs.

4. What is the size of the laptop market in the USA?

Make important clarifications such as the unit of measurement. Here, we shall assume that
the unit of measurement is the number of laptops sold in a year.
The first step will be to make clear the USA’s population, which may be taken to be 300
million. Next, assume the proportion of this population that owns a laptop. The last
determination will be the average span of the life of a laptop in the USA.
The USA population may be segmented into retirees, students, stay-at-home population, and
working population. The working population may be said to be 50% of the total population.
The retirees maybe 30% and students maybe 20% of the whole population.
Among the working population, it is assumed everyone owns a laptop. Among the retirees, a
fair assumption would be that nobody owns a laptop. Among students, while younger classes
do not require laptops, older classes do. So, half the students may be assumed to own a
laptop.
Calculating the proportions of the population that own a laptop –
Working population – 0.5 x 1 = 0.5
Students – 0.2 x 0.5 x 1 = 0.1
Total – 0.6.
The average age of a laptop may be said to be 5 years. So, ⅕ of the total calculated
population will change their laptops every year.
The market size of laptops in the USA is 350 million x 0.6 x 0.2 = 42 million.

5. How many ping-pong balls can fit inside a Boeing 747?

Begin by asking the interviewer the size of a ping pong ball. If you do not get an answer,
assume a value.
To calculate the number of ping pong balls that fit inside a Boeing 747, we can begin by
calculating the volume of a Boeing 747. First, assume the total number of seats on the plane.
Then, account for the extra space—the aisles, the galleys, and the washrooms.
The additional space will be the space in the overhead compartments and the space above the
passenger’s head. Now, divide the volume that you have calculated by the volume of the ping
pong balls that you have assumed. Do not forget to account for the empty space between the
balls.
Let’s say there are 400 seats in a plane. If we consider the aisle to occupy one seat’s space,
and there are 40 rows with two aisles, that adds 80 more seats. Let us say the area above the
seat is about the same as the seat itself. That makes 960 seats in total. The washrooms and
galley might add space worth about 20 more seats, making the total count roughly 1000 seats.
Each seat can be said to occupy the amount of volume a human takes up in the sitting
position. Assuming this to be 4 ft x 2 ft x 1 ft, the total seat area is 8 ft. Hence, the plane’s
total volume becomes 8000 cubic ft or 13824000 cubics in. Let us say the area occupied by a
ball is 4 cubic inches. The total number of balls hence becomes 3456000. Considering that
balls can be packed only with about 70% efficiency, the total number of balls becomes
2419000.

6.Number of weddings / marriages in India in a year

facts
India’s population in a year – 1.3 bill

Population breakup – Rural – 70% and Urban – 30%

Assumptions
Every year India’s population would grow steadily, but the growth won’t be very fast-paced.
Every man and women would be eventually married (homogeneously or heterogeneously).
They won’t prematurely die or prefer not to marry. People would be married only once.
In rural areas the age of marriage (in average) is between 15 – 35 year range. Similarly, in
urban areas = 20 – 35 years. India is a young country, and 15 – 35 year range has around
50% of the total population.

Rural estimation
Rural population = 70% * 1.3 bill = 900 mill

Population within marriage age in a year = 50% * 900 mill = 450 mill

Number of marriages to happen = 450 / 2 = 225 mill marriages

These people will marry within a 20 year time period according to our assumptions.

Number of rural marriages in a year = 225 mill / 20 = 11.25 marriages

Urban estimation
Urban population = 30% * 1.3 bill = 400 mill

Population within marriage age in a year = 50% * 400 mill = 200 mill

Number of marriages to happen = 200 / 2 = 100 mill marriages

These people will marry within a 15 year time period according to our assumptions.

Number of urban marriages in a year = 100 mill / 15 = 6.6 marriages

Note and caveats
Many people die in accidents prematurely, and wont marry. In addition, most people don’t
marry as well as a consumer preference parameter. So, our market number is over-estimated.
Even if we try to normalize it by introducing an error percentage of around 10%, the final
number number will be lesser by around 10%-15%.
Answer = Approximately 14 million marriages occur in a year in India

7. Estimate the number of cigarettes consumed monthly in India

Ans. A good proxy in such a problem is the population of India, i.e., 1.2 billion. Following is
an effective way to segment this population:

1. The rural population consumes far fewer cigarettes than urban because of the
purchasing power difference.
2. Male consume more cigarettes than females in both urban and rural populations.
3. Children below 16 years consume a negligible number of cigarettes.
4. Male to Female ratio in Urban is closer to 1 than that of Rural.
5. Male to Female ratio in younger generations is closer to 1 than that of older
generations. This is because of the increase in awareness level.
6. Bulk of the population start smoking after getting into a job and hence the average
number cigarettes are higher in older groups.
7. Total number of cigarettes from the supply side also comes to around 10 Trillion,
which gives a good sense check on the final number.

8. What is the Surf excel detergent usage in a day in India?

Ans. The best way to start with this question would be with the population.

India ~1.3 billion

Rural ~ 70% ~ 900 million

Urban ~ 30% ~ 400 million

Rural - upper BPL : ~ 40% = 360 million

Rural (BPL) : 60% 540 million

Rural (BPL)

We can assume Rural BPL mostly as collective households, averaging at 5 per

family: ~110 million
 1. Mostly they use sachets. let’s average the usage 2 sachets of 3 rs each per
week: 24–30 Rs. per month ~ 25*110 = 2750 million INR.
2. Now Surf Excel is a little costly sachet , and given cheaper alternatives
available, we can assume its share to be around 5–10% =200 million
3. For per day: 200/30 ~ 7million INR

Rural (Above BPL)

1. We can assume 4 sachets per week ~ 12 = 50–60 per month

2. Total household: 72 million = 72*60 = 4320 million INR monthly
3. Surf Excel share ~ 20% (others going to wheel, rin, ok, ghadi etc.) = 864
million INR
4. Daily use therefore: 864/30 = 28.8 million INR
5. Total Rural daily revenue: ~ 35 Million INR

Urban

1. Urban Low class ~ 30% = 120 million = 22 million household : Usage 250gms
per month: 50 INR = 1100 Million INR
2. Surf Excel share: 5–7% = 77 million INR.
3. Daily: 77/30 million INR = 2.10 million INR
4. Urban Middle class: - 40% = 160 million = 40 million households (4 per family)
5. Average use: 500 gms per month , 90 Rs per month = 3600 million INR
6. Surf excel share: 20–25% = 900 million INR
7. Daily : 900/30 = 30 million INR
8. Urban High Class: 120 million ~ 30 million households (4 per family)
9. Average use: 1kg per month, 200 INR = 6000 million INR.
10. Surf Excel (King here) ~ 70% share ~ 4200 million INR
11. Daily = 4200/30 = 140 million INR.
12. Total Urban daily revenue: = 172 million INR

So total daily monetary value of the usage:

1. Rural daily + Urban daily = 35+172 = ~ 210 million INR

2. So Surf Excel totaling a value of Rs. 210 million is used in India daily.
3. If you want to find out the quantity, let’s divide it by the average kg price ~ 160
INR
4. = 210/160 Million Kgs ~ 1.3 Million Kilograms per day.

Some more Guesstimates for practice:

1. What is the market size of toothbrushes in India?

2. How many flights does Bangalore/Mumbai/Delhi Airport handle in a day?
3. How many balloons can be packed in an Airbus 380?
4. What is the market size of refrigerators/TVs/Smartphones in India?
5. How many Chocolates are sold in a day in India?
6. What is the market size of Noodles in India?
7. How many idlis are consumed in India in a year?
8. How much paint is required to paint this room?
9. What is the market size of disposable diapers in India?
 10. How much biryani is consumed in India in a year?
11. How much toothpaste is used in a day in India?

Guess estimates questions are one of the most common case estimation query
asked in IIMs interview for summer as well as final placement.With the right tools
and techniques, this case study becomes a cake walk.

9. How many tennis balls are sold in India every day?

Keep in Mind the interviewer ask you this question to see how much you can analyse it. As
Even he himself don’t know what is the exact number.

1st : Lets assume we have 10000 professional tennis court all over India.

2nd: There must 3–4 tennis courts in any university. So lets suppose we have 10000 universities
in India.

3rd: We have district clubs, society clubs in every every districts. We have around 700(exact
739) districts in India and 10 courts in each district.

4th: We have rural areas too, so lets assume a total of 5000 courts.

Now on computing we have : 10000 + 4*10000 + 700 * 10 + 5000 =60000 courts in India

Now if we assume they lose 10 balls on an average, the 60000 * 10 = 600000 balls daily.

So In a year 365*600000 balls will be sold.

10. How many cigarettes are sold per day in India?

If only 10% of the Indian population smoke cigarettes, it will be about 130 million
people. If each person smokes about 5 cigarettes per day, the total works out be 650
million cigarettes.

11. How would you estimate the number of fruits sold in India in a day?

I would prefer to answer this question as the number of fruits consumed in a day from
the view point of a consumer , not the seller. This estimation does not include Dry Fruits.

Lets start by the current Indian population= 1.285 billion

From this figure , we have to eliminate the population which is unable to afford eating
fruits. According to the figure stated in Wikipedia,
23.6 % people are below poverty line. I would approximate this figure to be 25% which
comes out to be approx 320 million.

So, now net population = 1285 million -320 million = 965 million

Let us categorize people into age groups and assuming a linear distribution of ages
across people (average life expectancy 80 years)
1. 1-15 = 181 million ~ 200 million
2. 15-50 = 423 million ~ 465 million
3. 50-80 = 362 million ~ 300 million

Since our population is has a fair majority of youth population, I have shifted the figures
appropriately.

Now, we have to assume the average consumption of fruits in these age groups.

1. 1-15 = 1 fruit per day = 200 million fruits

2. 15-50 = 2.5 fruits per day = 465 * 2.5 = 1162.5 million fruits
3. 50-80 = 1.5 fruits per day = 300 * 1.5 = 450 million fruits

Total fruits = 1812.5 million

Since this figure is totally based on individual consumption and does not focus on
commercial aspects , it would be fair to multiply this figure by 1.2!

12. How many people use Gmail in India?

Approach
The population of India is – 1,300,000,000 i.e. 1.3B
Internet penetration in India is – 30%
Assumed Population Distribution –

o 0-20 : 25%

o 21- 60 : 60%

o >60 : 15%

People of age between 0-20 using internet

= 0.25*390000000
= 97500000
~100,000,000

Similarly people of age between 21-60 and >60 using internet will
be 230,000,000 and 60,000,000 respectively.
Assumption

People of age 0-20 usually do not need an email account. But we may consider 5% of them do
have it.

Therefore email users of 0-20 age group = 0.05*100000000 = 5000000.

The major proportion of email users are the employed people. Since in India employment rate is
75% but not all of them need an email account.

We will assume 75% of employed people use an email account.

Therefore email users of age 20-60 = 0.75*0.75*230,000,000 = 130,000,000(approx.)
Out of 60,000,000 people aged above 60, 25% of them use an email account. So email users of
this age group = 0.25* 60,000,000 = 15,000,000.

So total email users in India = 5000000 + 130000000 + 15000000 = 150,000,000.

Gmail is a free and most prominent email service provider. So the nearly 85% of email users use
Gmail.

Therefore number of Gmail users in India

= 0.85*150000000
= 127,500,000.

13. What is the number of laptops sold in Bangalore on an average routine day?

Laptop is a costly product. I am assuming that people buy laptop only when they needed. That’s
why i am going to calculate potential market of laptops in India.
Total population of Bangalore = 18Mn ~ 20Mn
Let’s divide population on the basis of age
0–18 Yr – 30% of 20 Mn = 6 Mn -> We can neglect this age group because generally they don’t
need personal laptop and when needed, they prefer to use others laptop.
19–22 Yr – 10% of 20 Mn = 2Mn -> 0.6*2 Mn -> 1.2 Mn (This is the college age group. Most of the
college students need a laptop. Assumed 60% of them own a laptop)

22–50 Yr = 40% of 20 Mn = 8 Mn. 22-50 age group is the working class of the society. I have
divided this class into 3 major categories.

White collar employees (25%)

Blue collar employees (50%)
Small business owners (25%)
Assumed 80% and 30% people in the category of white collar employees and Small business
owners respectively own a laptop or PC. We can neglect blue collar employees.
80% white collar own a laptop or PC -> 1.6 Mn
Small business owners own laptops or PC -> 0.6 Mn
50–80 Yr = 20% = 4 Mn -> we can ignore this age group

Total laptop + PC users in Bangalore = 1.2+1.6+.6= 2.4 Mn

Corporate offices/Schools/Computer centers generally have desktop. Lets assume 60% are
desktops.
Laptops = 40% -> 0.9 Mn
Average life of a laptop = 5 year ( in India )

Number of sold per day in Bangalore = 0.9 Mn/ 365*5 ~ 500 laptops

14. How many doors are there in Bangalore? ( HINT: We consider only homes)
The population of Bangalore = 11 M around
Assuming the # of people with homes in Bangalore = 90% of 11M = 9.9 M
Assuming the average family size in Bangalore consists of 5 people.
Hence the # of homes in Bangalore = 1.9 M( =9.9/5)
Assuming average # of doors in a home = 3
Hence the total # of doors in Bangalore = 6M ( 1.9*3)