MICROPROJECT REPORT

ON

Probability and Queuing Theory

SUBMITTED BY

Karan sathe.(40)

Under Guidance of

Ms. Bhagyashri patil.

Diploma Course in Computer Technology

(As per directives of I Scheme, MSBTE)

JAYWANT SHIKSHAN PRASARK MANDA

BHIVARABAI SAWANT POLYTECHNIC, PUNE – 412207

 Maharashtra State

Board of technical Education

Certificate

This is to certify that Mr.karan prakash sathe with Roll No. 40 of

Sixth Semester of Diploma in Computer Engineering of Institute

Bhivarabai Sawant Polytechnic Wagholi , Pune has successfully

completed the Micro-Project in Network and Information security (22620)

for the academic year 2021-2022.

Place: Wagholi, Pune Enrollment No: 1910870046

Date: 24 Apr 2022 Exam seat No :

Ms. Bhagyashri patil. MS.S.GAIKWAD . Dr.P.T KALE

Subject Teacher Head of Department Princelple

 INDEX

SR.NO Contents

1 Probillity

2
Queuing
1.Probaillity :
 Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical

descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The
probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates
impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. [note 1][1][2] The higher the probability of an
event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair
(unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally
probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other
outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could alsoThese
concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in probability theory, which
is used widely in areas of study such
as statistics, mathematics, science, finance, gambling, artificial intelligence, machine
learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about
the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying
mechanics and regularities of complex systems.[3]
● Theory :
Like other theories, the theory of probability is a representation of its concepts in formal terms—
that is, in terms that can be considered separately from their meaning. These formal terms are
manipulated by the rules of mathematics and logic, and any results are interpreted or translated
back into the problem domain.
There have been at least two successful attempts to formalize probability, namely
the Kolmogorov formulation and the Cox formulation. In Kolmogorov's formulation (see
also probability space), sets are interpreted as events and probability as a measure on a class of
sets. In Cox's theorem, probability is taken as a primitive (i.e., not further analyzed), and the
emphasis is on constructing a consistent assignment of probability values to propositions. In
both cases, the laws of probability are the same, except for technical details.
There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster–Shafer
theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not compatible with the
usually-understood laws of probability.

● Applications :
Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and modeling. The insurance
industry and markets use actuarial science to determine pricing and make trading decisions.
Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, entitlement analysis,
and financial regulation.
An example of the use of probability theory in equity trading is the effect of the perceived
probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices, which have ripple effects in the
economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely can send
that commodity's prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the
probabilities are neither assessed independently nor necessarily rationally. The theory
of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and
on peace and conflict.[24]
In addition to financial assessment, probability can be used to analyze trends in biology (e.g.,
disease spread) as well as ecology (e.g., biological Punnett squares). As with finance, risk
assessment can be used as a statistical tool to calculate the likelihood of undesirable events
occurring, and can assist with implementing protocols to avoid encountering such
circumstances. Probability is used to design games of chance so that casinos can make a
guaranteed profit, yet provide payouts to players that are frequent enough to encourage
continued play.[25]
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer
products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use reliability theory in product design
to reduce the probability of failure. Failure probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions
on a product's warranty.[26]
The cache language model and other statistical language models that are used in natural language
processing are also examples of applications of probability theory.
● History :
The scientific study of probability is a modern development
of mathematics. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas
of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There
are reasons for the slow development of the mathematics of probability. Whereas
games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of probability,
fundamental issues [note 2] are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers. [11]

According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term
'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that sense, univocally,
to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people
would undertake or hold, in the circumstances."[12] However, in legal contexts especially,
'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was good envied .

2.Queuing :
Queueing theory is the mathematical study of waiting lines,
or queues.[1] A queueing model is constructed so that queue lengths and waiting time can be
predicted.[1] Queueing theory is generally considered a branch of operations research because
the results are often used when making business decisions about the resources needed to
provide a service.
Queue networks are systems in which single queues are connected by a routing network. In this image,
servers are represented by circles, queues by a series of rectangles and the routing network by arrows. In
the study of queue networks one typically tries to obtain the equilibrium distribution of the network,
although in many applications the study of the transient state is fundamental.

Queueing theory has its origins in research by Agner Krarup Erlang when he created
models to describe the system of Copenhagen Telephone Exchange company, a Danish
company.[1] The ideas have since seen applications including telecommunication, traffic
engineering, computing[2] and, particularly in industrial engineering, in the design of
factories, shops, offices and hospitals, as well as in project management. [3][4]

● Queuing Network :

Networks of queues are systems in which a number of queues are connected by what's
known as customer routing. When a customer is serviced at one node it can join another
node and queue for service, or leave the network.
 networks of m nodes, the state of the system can be described by an m–dimensional
vector (x1, x2, ..., xm) where xi represents the number of customers at each node.
The simplest non-trivial network of queues is called tandem queues.[26] The first significant
results in this area were Jackson networks,[27][28] for which an efficient product-form
stationary distribution exists and the mean value analysis[29] which allows average metrics
such as throughput and sojourn times to be computed. [30] If the total number of
customers in the network remains constant the network is called a closed network and
has also been shown to have a product–form stationary distribution in the Gordon–
Newell theorem.[31] This result was extended to the BCMP network[32] where a network
with very general service time, regimes and customer routing is shown to also exhibit a
product-form stationary distribution. The normalizing constant can be calculated with
the Buzen's algorithm, proposed in 1973.[33]
Networks of customers have also been investigated, Kelly networks where customers of
different classes experience different priority levels at different service nodes. [34] Another
type of network are G-networks first proposed by Erol Gelenbe in 1993:[35] these networks
do not assume exponential time distributions like the classic Jackson Network.

Queuing Theory :
Queuing theory deals with problems which involve queuing (or waiting). Typical examples
might be:

 banks/supermarkets - waiting for service

 computers - waiting for a response
 failure situations - waiting for a failure to occur e.g. in a piece of machinery
 public transport - waiting for a train or a bus
As we know queues are a common every-day experience. Queues form because resources are
limited. In fact it makes economic sense to have queues. For example how many supermarket
tills you would need to avoid queuing? How many buses or trains would be needed if queues
were to be avoided/eliminated?
In designing queueing systems we need to aim for a balance between service to customers (short
queues implying many servers) and economic considerations (not too many servers).
In essence all queuing systems can be broken down into individual sub-systems consisting
of entities queuing for some activity (as shown below).
Typically we can talk of this individual sub-system as dealing with customers queuing
for service.