CONCEPT OF DISASTER

Disaster is "a sudden, calamitous occurrence that causes great harm, injury,
destruction, and devastation to life and property”. It disrupts the usual course of life,
causing both physical and emotional distress such as an intense feeling of helplessness
and hopelessness. A preceding definition of disaster stresses that two elements are affected
– life (whether human or animal) and property. The effects vary – it maybe a minor damage
(like broken windows and doors), major damage (like torn rooftops, collapsed walls), total
destruction (like completely destroyed houses and structures rendering them useless and
inhabitable) and the worst scenario, it can lead to death. (Asian Disaster Preparedness
Center, ADPC, 2012)

Classification of Disasters:

Disasters can be divided into 2 large categories:

A. Natural Disasters – a natural phenomenon is caused by natural forces, such as

earthquakes, typhoon, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, fires, tornados, and extreme
temperatures. They can be classified as rapid onset disasters and those with progressive
onset, such as droughts that lead to famine. These events, usually sudden, can have
tremendous effects.

B. Man-made - Disasters caused by man are those in which major direct causes are
identifiable intentional or non-intentional human actions.

Subdivided into three categories:

1. Technological/industrial disasters - Unregulated industrialization and inadequate

safety standards increase the risk for industrial disasters.

EXAMPLE: leaks of hazardous materials; accidental explosions; bridge or road collapses, or

vehicle collisions; Power cuts

2. Terrorism/Violence - the threat of terrorism has also increased due to the spread of
technologies involving nuclear, biological, and chemical agents used to develop weapons of
mass destruction.

EXAMPLE: bombs or explosions; release of chemical materials; release of biological agents;

release of radioactive agents; multiple or massive shootings; mutinies

3. Complex humanitarian emergencies - the term complex emergency is usually used to

describe the humanitarian emergency resulting from an international or civil war. In such
situations, large numbers of people are displaced from their homes due to the lack of
personal safety and the disruption of basic infrastructure including food distribution,
water, electricity, and sanitation, or communities are left stranded and isolated in their own
homes unable to access assistance.

EXAMPLE: conflicts or wars and Genocide the deliberate killing of a large group of people,
especially those of a particular ethnic group or nation

The damage caused by disaster cannot be measured. It also differs with the kind of
geographical location, climate, earth’s specific characteristics, and level of vulnerability.
These determining factors affect generally the psychological, socio – economic, political, and
ethnical state of the affected area.

Risk and Disaster Risk

Risk has various connotations within different disciplines. In general, risk is defined
as “the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences” (UNISDR,
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2009). The term risk is thus multidisciplinary and is used in a variety of contexts. It is
usually associated with the degree to which humans cannot cope (lack of capacity) with a
situation (e.g. natural hazard).

The term disaster risk refers to the potential (not actual and realized) disaster losses,
in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets, and services which could occur in a community
or society over some specified future time period.

Disaster risk is the product of the possible damage caused by a hazard due to the
vulnerability within a community. It should be noted that the effect of a hazard (of a
particular magnitude) would affect communities differently (Von Kotze, 1999:35).

It can also be determined by the presence of three variables: hazards (natural or

anthropogenic); vulnerability to a hazard; and coping capacity linked to the reduction,
mitigation, and resilience to the vulnerability of a community.

RISK FACTORS UNDERLYING DISASTERS

Disaster risk as defined in the first module has three important elements such as:

1. Exposure - the “elements at risk from a natural or man-made hazard event (Quebral,
2016).

2. Hazard - a potentially dangerous physical occurrence, phenomenon or human activity

that may result in loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or
environmental degradation.

3. Vulnerability - the condition determined by physical, social, economic and

environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the
impact of hazard (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation, FAO 2008).

Reduction of the level of vulnerability and exposure is possible by keeping people and
property as distant as possible from hazards. We cannot avoid natural events from
occurring, but we can concentrate on addressing the reduction of risk and exposure by
determining the factors causing disasters.

Risk Factors are processes or conditions, often development-related that influence

the level of disaster risk by increasing levels of exposure and vulnerability or reducing
capacity.

The following are also taken into consideration when risk factors underlying disaster
are involved:

 Severity of exposure - which measures those who experience disaster first hand
which has the highest risk of developing future mental problems, followed by those in
contact with the victims such as rescue workers and health care practitioners and
the lowest risk are those most distant like those who have awareness of the disaster
only through news.
 Gender and Family - the female gender suffers more adverse effects. This worsens
when children are present at home. Marital relationships are placed under strain.
 Age - adults in the age range of 40-60 are more stressed after disasters but in
general, children exhibit more stress after disasters than adults do.
 Economic status of country - evidence indicates that severe mental problems
resulting from disasters are more prevalent in developing countries like the
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 Philippines. Furthermore, it has been observed that natural disasters tend to have
more adverse effects in developing countries than do man caused disasters in
developed countries.

Factors which underlie disasters:

1. Climate Change - can increase disaster risk in a variety of ways – by altering the
frequency and intensity of hazards events, affecting vulnerability to hazards, and changing
exposure patterns. For most people, the expression “climate change” means the alteration
of the world’s climate that we humans are causing such as burning of fossil fuels,
deforestation and other practices that increase the carbon footprint and concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is in line with the official definition by the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that climate change is the
change that can be attributed “directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods”

2. Environmental Degradation - changes to the environment can influence the frequency

and intensity of hazards, as well as our exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. For
instance, deforestation of slopes often leads to an increase in landslide hazard and removal
of mangroves can increase the damage caused by storm surges (UNISDR, 2009b). It is both
a driver and consequence of disasters, reducing the capacity of the environment to meet
social and ecological needs. Over consumption of natural resources results in
environmental degradation, reducing the effectiveness of essential ecosystem services, such
as the mitigation of floods and landslides. This leads to increased risk from disasters, and
in turn, natural hazards can further degrade the environment.

3. Globalized Economic Development - It results in an increased polarization between the

rich and poor on a global scale. Currently increasing the exposure of assets in hazard prone
areas, globalized economic development provides an opportunity to build resilience if
effectively managed. By participating in risk sensitive development strategies such as
investing in protective infrastructure, environmental management, and upgrading informal
settlements, risk can be reduced. Dominance and increase of wealth in certain regions and
cities are expected to have increased hazard exposure (Gencer, 2013).

4. Poverty and Inequality - Impoverished people are more likely to live in hazardexposed
areas and are less able to invest in risk-reducing measures. The lack of access to insurance
and social protection means that people in poverty are often forced to use their already
limited assets to buffer disaster losses, which drives them into further poverty. Poverty is
therefore both a cause and consequence of disaster risk (Wisner et al., 2004), particularly
extensive risk, with drought being the hazard most closely associated with poverty (Shepard
et al., 2013). The impact of disasters on the poor can, in addition to loss of life, injury and
damage, cause a total loss of livelihoods, displacement, poor health, food insecurity, among
other consequences. Vulnerability is not simply about poverty, but extensive research over
the past 30 years has revealed that it is generally the poor who tend to suffer worst from
disasters (DFID, 2004; Twigg, 2004; Wisner et al., 2004; UNISDR, 2009b).

5. Poorly planned and Managed Urban Development - A new wave of urbanization is

unfolding in hazard-exposed countries and with it, new opportunities for resilient
investment emerge. People, poverty, and disaster risk are increasingly concentrated in
cities. The growing rate of urbanization and the increase in population density (in cities)
can lead to creation of risk, especially when urbanization is rapid, poorly planned and
occurring in a context of widespread poverty. Growing concentrations of people and
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economic activities in many cities are seen to overlap with areas of high-risk exposure.

6. Weak Governance - weak governance zones are investment environments in which

public sector actors are unable or unwilling to assume their roles and responsibilities in
protecting rights, providing basic services and public services. Disaster risk is
disproportionately concentrated in lower-income countries with weak governance (UNISDR,
2015a). Disaster risk governance refers to the specific arrangements that societies put in
place to manage their disaster risk (UNISDR, 2011a; UNDP, 2013a) within a broader
context of risk governance (Renn, 2008 in UNISDR, 2015a). This reflects how risk is valued
against a backdrop of broader social and economic concerns (Holley et al., 2011).

Certain factors are related to a survivor’s background and recovery is hampered if

survivors: were not functioning well before the disaster; have no experience dealing with
disasters; must deal with other stressors after the disaster; have low self-esteem; feel
uncared for by others; think they exercise little control over what happens to them; and
unable to manage stress.

More factors contributory to worse outcomes: death of someone close; injury to self or
family member; life threat; panic, horror, or similar feelings; separation from family;
massive loss of property; and displacement.

EFFECTS OF DISASTERS ON ONE’S LIFE

A natural disaster can bring about many devastating effects. Among these are
deaths, destruction of infrastructures, loss of livelihood and services, and other physical
and nonphysical effects. Since we are partly responsible for the disasters happening around
us, we must change some of our ways, in order to prevent or minimize the effects of
disasters in our lives.

A disaster is a damaging event that occurs suddenly and involves loss of life and
property. It can be of two types, natural and man-made.

Natural disasters can destroy a whole community in an instant. Examples of natural

disasters are volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, earthquakes, and typhoons which are
destructive to people's lives.

Man-made disasters on the other hand are caused by human beings. Some of the
man-made disasters are bomb explosions, terrorism, wars, leakage of poisonous chemicals,
pollutions, industrial accidents, and epidemics. They are identified as man- made disasters
because they happen due to human actions and not by natural forces.

What is the difference between hazard and disaster?

A hazard is a dangerous situation or event that carries a threat to humans. A

disaster is an event that harms humans and disrupts the operations of society. Hazards
can only be considered disasters once it affected humans. If a disaster happened in an
unpopulated area, it is still a hazard.

The Human Effect of Natural and Man-Made Disasters

1. Displaced Populations

One of the most immediate effects of natural disasters is population displacement.

When countries are ravaged by earthquakes or other powerful forces of nature, many
people need to abandon their homes and seek shelter in other regions. A large influx of
refugees can disrupt accessibility of health care and education, as well as food supplies and
clean water.

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2. Health Risks

Aside from the obvious immediate danger that natural disasters present, the
secondary effect can be just as damaging. Severe flooding can result in stagnant water that
allows breeding of waterborne bacteria and malaria carrying mosquitoes. Without
emergency relief from international aid organizations and others, death tolls can rise even
after the immediate danger has passed.

3. Food Scarcity

The aftermath of natural disasters affects the food supplies. Thousands of people around
the world are hungry because of destroyed crops and loss of agricultural supplies, whether
it happens suddenly in a storm or gradually in a drought. As a result, food prices rise
reducing families’ purchasing power and increasing the risk of severe malnutrition or
worse. The impacts of hunger following an earthquake, typhoon or hurricane can be
tremendous, causing lifelong damage to children’s development.

4. Emotional Aftershocks

Natural disasters can be particularly traumatic for young children. Confronted with scenes
of destruction and the deaths of friends and loved ones, many children develop post-
traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a serious psychological condition resulting from extreme
trauma. Left untreated, children suffering from PTSD can be prone to lasting psychological
damage and emotional distress.

Great damage caused by a disaster can be reduced if everyone will take responsibility
in anticipating its effects. Here are some ways on how to plan ahead of a disaster:

1. Check for hazards at home.

2. Identify safe place indoors and outdoors

3. Educate yourself and family members

4. Have Disaster kits/supplies on hand.

5. Develop an emergency communication plan.

6. Help your community get ready.

7. Practice the Disaster Preparedness Cycle

DISASTER ANALYSIS FROM DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES

 Physical - the physical effects on both the people and the environment will depend
on the level of destruction the disaster brings. People do get hurt in typhoons,
earthquakes, fires, and tsunamis. So, assuming the disaster is massive, then the
effect would be long-lasting because of the loss of lives and injuries.

 Psychological - along with the physical damage comes the psychological one. To
have your house destroyed is something you won’t forget, not to mention losing a
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 loved one because of the disaster. These events strike at the heart of every
community and can drive a person mad.

 Sociocultural - it is very hard to change people’s culture, so a disaster won’t have
much of an impact. People will still help each and pick up their lives and move
on if that is their culture.

 Economic - this is a different case, a community’s economy can be destroyed, and

may take a long time to recover. The normal routine of manufacturing,
delivering, and selling of goods can be put to a standstill.

 Political - this is where the district leader like the congressman, mayor, barangay
captain will need to shine. How he reacts to the disaster may determine his or
her future in the next election.

 Biological - the biological effect of a disaster is self-healing, remember, all these

animals and plants have been dealing with these types of events long before we were
here. It is only when our manmade structures or creations collide with their habitats
that the true problem for that area of the biosphere begins.

EXPLAIN THE MEANING OF VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability can determine the ability of an person or a group to predict, cope with,
resist and recover from the effects of a natural or human-induced threat. As vulnerability
increases, it means that the population is at greater risk of suffering from a severe natural
danger.

Vulnerability Defined

Vulnerability is a state of being at risk. According to Republic Act 10121 also known
as ‘Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010’, vulnerability is
defined as the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or resource that
make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. With the entire identified hazard at
home, there is a possibility that some family members might be susceptible or prone to the
accident due to the presence of hazard.

Vulnerability is also situation specific. This means that if a specific province is prone
to earthquake, it does not mean that all localities on that province is vulnerable to it. The
vulnerability of different towns or cities or even provinces differ in the way they prepare for
the hazard and the amount and type of resources they have in order prevent and manage
it. To lessen vulnerability means to make the community prepared and ready for the
possible damaging effect of the hazard. This further means that to make the community
less vulnerable, it must be resilient. So, to develop resiliency at home, you should first
identify the hazards and be prepared all the time for the possible outcome and respond
immediately.

Moreover, it is also hazard specific. A community that is vulnerable to earthquake

hazard does not necessarily mean that it is also vulnerable to typhoons. Hazards have
different traits that can influence the disasters possible to happen.

EXPLANATION WHY THE CERTAIN SECTORS OF SOCIETY ARE MORE VULNERABLE

TO DISASTER THAN OTHERS

Explanation

Level of vulnerability of an area or community can be assessed base on different

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factors. These factors can affect one another or can lead to other factors.

1. Population density near a hazard event. Population differs from population density.
Population refers to the number of individuals inhabiting in a particular space at the same
time. If people are well distributed, there is lesser effect of disaster. While population
density refers to the number of individuals living in an area in relation to the size of an
area. If population density is high, it means that the number of individuals is high but the
space is very small. In that case, if fire broke in that area, there is little space for the
population to escape quickly and easily. So, crowded communities have higher vulnerability
to hazards.

2. Capacity and efficiency to reduce disaster risk. Community that is less vulnerable has
the capacity to reduce disaster risk. This community can provide accessibility and
availability of services and facilities that can help in preparing for disasters. This
community has the ability to anticipate, adapt and respond to possible disaster. Is it
appropriate to say that Philippines is less vulnerable to typhoon? Nowadays, our country
has advanced technology to predict super typhoon and several municipalities already
provided evacuation centers to provide temporary housing for victims when disaster occur.

VULNERABILITY OF EACH EXPOSED ELEMENT

Vulnerabilities of different elements are determined due to its exposure to particular

and specific hazard.

Physical vulnerability may be determined by aspects such as population density

levels, remoteness of a settlement, the site design and materials used for infrastructure and
for housing. During hazardous event, physical elements can be totally damaged or altered.
For example, UP Visayas buildings were totally destroyed during the Yolanda super
typhoon in 2008 leaving the structure no longer functional. Another example is the
decreased in population density in Baguio during the 1990 earthquake in North Luzon
when a lot of people were injured and died.

Social vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organization and societies to

withstand adverse impacts to hazards due to characteristics inherent in social interactions,
institutions and system of cultural values. For example, social elements exposed to hazard
during typhoon is the line of communications when cell sites shutdown or absence of
transportation due to inability of small vehicles to pass through the flooded areas. With
some difficulties in the delivery of services such as relief goods and medicine, a lot of
problems occurred like shortage of food and spread of infectious diseases. In short, when
social elements were exposed to hazard, it may lead to disruption of normal processes and
activities.

Level of Economic vulnerability is highly dependent on the economic status of

individuals, communities and nations. The poor are usually more vulnerable to disasters
because they lack the resources to build sturdy structures and put other engineering
measures in place to protect themselves from being affected by disasters. So, we can say
that Philippines is more vulnerable to an event such as earthquake compared to Japan.
Though both countries are exposed to earthquake hazard because both are located in the
Pacific ring of fire, but due to difference in economic status, Japan is more resilient
because the country was able to afford changes in architectural and engineering designs of
building and infrastructures to make them less vulnerable to earthquake.

Environmental vulnerability is due to natural resources depletion and resource

degradation. Organisms like humans, animals and plants are all dependent on the

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environment for survival. Human activities like deforestation, burning of fossil fuels,
kaingin affects the natural abilities of the environment to protect itself from any natural
hazard. Lack of trees, for example may cause landslide and flashfloods. Effects of these
hazard can be sometimes impossible to reverse.

Quantifying vulnerability is used in estimating how much mitigation and

preparedness measures will be applied. Computation is based on the previous hazard
events and severity of their effects. Vulnerability can be expressed as: 0 = lowest degree of
vulnerability and 1 as the highest degree. Vulnerability of people is the ratio of casualties or
injured to the total population. Vulnerability of buildings is expressed as a repair cost or
degree of damage.

Philippines have high vulnerability due to the following reasons:

 It lies in the Pacific typhoon belt and we are visited by an average of 20 typhoons every
year.

 Rugged nature of the landscape makes it vulnerable to landslide, mudflows and other
disasters.

 It is an archipelagic country with many small island wherein some areas are at below sea
level.

 It has one of the longest seashore in the world at 32,400 km maling it vulnerable to storm
surges.

 It is still a primary agricultural and fishing economy.

 With poor institutional and social capacity to manage, respond and recover from natural
hazard events.

 With high level of poverty

 Aside from typhoon, it is also at risk to volcanic, quakes and floods.

HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, AND VULNERABILITIES AND THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE

THREE TO DISASTER RISK

Hazard is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that

may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood
and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Any impending
danger is hazard.

Exposure is the presence of elements at risk or chance of being harmed from a

natural or man-made hazard event. Elements include the individuals, households or
communities, properties, buildings and structures, agricultural commodities, livelihoods,
and public facilities, infrastructures and environmental assets present in an area that are
subject to potential damage or even losses. The more a community is exposed to hazard
factors, the higher is the disaster risk or higher chance disaster occurrence.

Vulnerability means the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system

or asset, that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.

While exposure and vulnerability on the other hand are distinct. A certain
community can be exposed but it does not mean that it is vulnerable. Buildings and
structures in Japan are exposed to earthquake, but they are not vulnerable since their
architectural and engineering designs are earthquake proof or resistant. However, to
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become vulnerable, it must be exposed to hazard first.

Exposure to hazard can make a community vulnerable. But not all communities that
are exposed to hazard can be considered vulnerable. Vulnerability depends on the
preparedness and readiness to a particular hazard of the community. It depends mostly on
how they mitigate, respond and recover. If a certain community has the ability to reduce
the vulnerability by reducing the risk, the said community is already considered as less
vulnerable or resilient.

HAZARD AND HAZARD TYPES

Hazards can be classified in many different ways. Natural hazards such as

earthquakes, tsunami, landslide and floods arise from natural processes in the
environment. Quasi-natural hazards such as pollution or desertification arise through the
interaction of natural processes and human activities. Technological (or man-made)
hazards which are the toxicity or pesticides to fauna, accidental release of chemicals or
radiation from a nuclear plant. These arise directly as a result of human activities.

A typology based on Hewitt and Burton (1971) would appear as follows.

Geologic Atmospheric

*Earthquakes - Typhoon or hurricanes

- Vibrations - Thunderstorm

- Ground Rupture - Excess rainfall

- Liquefaction - Tornados

- Earthquake induced landslide - Freezing rain (glaze)

- Tsunami - Hail

*Volcanic Eruption - Heavy snowfalls

- Lava flow - High wind speeds

- Volcanic gas - Extreme temperatures

- Pyroclastic flow - Lightning

- Tephra fall

- Volcanic debris

- Avalanche

* Rainfall induced landslide

* Sinkhole

Hydrologic Biologic

- Floods - Epidemic in humans

– River and coastal - Epidemic in plants

- Wave action - Epidemic in animals

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- Drought - Locusts

- Rapid glacier advance

Man-made

- Transport accidents

- Industrial explosions and fires

- Accidental release of toxic chemicals

- Nuclear accidents

- Collapse of public buildings

CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARD

Hazard quantification method considers the following questions

 How long does the hazard occur? (Duration)

 How often does the hazard occur? (Frequency)

 What is the strength? (Magnitude)

 How fast does it occur? (Speed)

 What is the chance it occurs? (Probability)

 How manageable are the effect? (Manageability)

Duration depends on how long the hazard affects an area. The greater the event, the
bigger the possible potential destruction. Example areas affected by a transport accident
are more limited than a tsunami or house fires.

How often an area hit by calamity is called frequency. Majority of hazards have
return periods on a human time-scale. Examples are volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
occurs every 50 years has a return period of 50 years and is referred to as 50 year eruption.
This reflects a statistical measure of how often a hazard event of a given magnitude and
intensity will occur.

Magnitude is an important characteristic for analyzing hazards since only

occurrences exceeding some defined level of magnitude are considered hazardous. For
example, earthquakes is described on its strength and an indication how destructive it can
be. In some cases hazards may be coupled, as in the landslide caused by an earthquake or
the typhoon.

Speed tell us how faster a hazard can be. Some hazards are predictable some are
not. Example tornados usually occur without warning same as earthquake, flash flood, and
landslide. While signs are seen in volcanic eruption, tsunami and typhoons.

Probability same as frequency it takes about the returning period of a hazard. For
example, a recurrence interval of once a year for a flood suggests that in any year, a flood of
that magnitude has a 100 % chance of occurring. And a volcanic eruption has a return
period of 20 years means that there are 5% probability of occurrence.

Manageability is how we manage the effect of a hazard. Easy manageability is

needed if the preparedness plan is properly implemented while difficult manageability if
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large damage was caused.

IMPACTS OF THE VARIOUS HAZARDS

Common long term impacts of natural hazards

1. Physical

- Death people

- Destruction and loss of vital infrastructure like transportation system, roads, bridges,
power lines and communication lines.

- Wide spread loss of housing and buildings

2. Psychological impact

- Grief and psychological

- Marital conflict

- Depression due to loss of loved ones and properties

- Chronic anxiety among children severely affected

3. Socio- cultural impact

- Displacement of population

- Loss of cultural identity

- Forced of adoption of new sets of culture

- Ethnic conflicts

4. Economic impact

- Loss of job due to displacement

- Loss of harvest and livestock

- Loss of farms, fish cages and other source of food

- Loss of money and other valuable

5. Environmental impact

- Loss of forest due to forest fires

- Loss of fresh water due to salination

- Disturbance of biodiversity

- Loss of natural rivers

6. Biological

- Epidemic to people, flora and fauna

- Chronic and permanent illness

- Mental disorder

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- Proliferation of different viral diseases

Hazard Identification and Assessment

1. Risk assessment associated to risk mapping.

A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential

hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially
harm exposed people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which they
depend. UNISDR (2009) (adapted by Philippines DRR Law, 2010)

2. Hazard Assessment is sometimes called Hazard Evaluation or Hazard Analysis

(UNDRO, 1991). Hazard Assessment is the process of estimating, for defined areas, the
probabilities of the occurrence of potentially-damaging phenomenon of given magnitude
within a specified period of time.

Hazard Assessment Approaches

1. Quantitative approach

In this approach mathematical functions or equations are used to denote

relationships between variable considered to quantify the hazard based on historical
records.

2. Qualitative approach

This method uses ranking such as ‘high’, ‘moderate’ and ‘low ‘to assess a hazard
event. Where there is a lack of enough data for quantitative evaluation, or if a variable
cannot expressed as numerical it is appropriate to use , this qualitative ranking to take
hazard mitigation decisions.

3. Deterministic approach

It is a more subjective approach that consider past record. . A past event is carefully
chosen and related characteristics and the consequences are described. Past impact data
can be combined with current conditions and potential exposure levels and impact.

4. Probabilistic approach

It is an objective approach based on the estimated probability of an event. It provides

an estimate of the probability of each hazard affecting an area or region. Probability for
each hazard may be categorized as ‘high’, ‘moderate’ or ‘low’. Probability of occurrence can
be calculated through research on past events.

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