Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Methods in Monitoring The Supply Chain Disruption

International Journal of Printing, Packaging & Allied Sciences, Vol. 4, No.
5, December 2016 3351
Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Methods in

Monitoring The Supply Chain Disruption
J. Ralph Leeben, M. Saravanan and S. Purushothaman
Abstract--- The supply chain disruption (SCD) is monitored in a bolt and nut manufacturing environment by
using the artificial neural network (ANN) combined with the fuzzy logic (FL) algorithms. The status of the working
conditions of the various facilities in the factory is used to monitor the SCD. The status considered are: (I) the non-
working status of the machines, (II) non-availability of processing materials, and (III) non-working of different
personnel responsible for completing a given production target are collected. This information is appropriately
converted into ‘1’ and ‘0’ for creating data sets. The data has been used for evaluating the performance of ANN
with FL methods. Four different ANN algorithms such as backpropagation algorithm (BPA), echo state neural
network (ESNN), radial basis function (RBF) and locally weighted projection regression (LWPR) are implemented
in combination with FL for the monitoring and estimation of SCD. Based on the information, the rectification of the
problems is carried out manually.
Keywords--- Back-Propagation Algorithm (BPA), Echo State Neural Network (ESNN), Radial Basis Function
(RBF), Locally Weighted Projection Regression (LWPR), Fuzzy Logic (FL).
I. INTRODUCTION
Supply chain describes the continuity in the flow of manufacturing or flow of goods from the source to the
destination. Various manufacturing companies use a visual monitoring system (VMS) to find out the ensured
delivery of products to customers.
The VMS applies to:Within the manufacturing industry, Between production industries, and Among many
source and supply systems that consist, suppliers, distributors, retailers and end customers. The end customer refers
to the final beneficiary of the finished product. The expected primary disruptions in the system could be as follows:
1) The product has been placed an order to the factory ‘Y’ by the manufacturing company ‘X’. The factory ‘Y’
should take complete responsibility for manufacturing and deliver the ordered products to manufacturing
company ‘X’ within the stipulated time. If there is any slackness, either due to the transportation problem or
other manufacturing difficulties, then it is one kind of supply chain disruption (SCD),
2) A machine stops working in a production environment. In such case, the product is not finished. Successive
machines cannot do further processing. This situation results in SCD, and there will be a delay in meeting
the target of manufacturing products, and
J. Ralph Leeben, Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Christian College of Engineering and Technology,
Oddanchatram, India. E-mail:ralphsam123@gmail.com
M. Saravanan, Professor and Head, Department of Mechanical Engineering SSM Institute of Engineering & Technology,Dindigul, India.
E-mail:drmsaravanan@yahoo.com
S. Purushothaman, Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, Ethiopia.
E-mail:dr.s.purushothaman.2015@gmail.com
ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

International Journal of Printing, Packaging & Allied Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 5, December 2016 3352
3) The raw material or the process inventory is not available at the right time of production due to improper
inventory management. This situation can result in entire manufacturing flowline to stop leading SCD.The
conventional method of overcoming the SCD is to formulate alternative solutions for each possible types of
difficulties that could be encountered in an operation.
Supply chains are designed to minimize redundancies, eliminate all forms of wastes. The concept of lean and just
in time (JIT) are used for reducing inventory. The lean method reduces disruptions by availing finished goods, work-
in-process, and raw materials. Redesign of the supply chain was suggested1.
Disorder must be identified before a factory can implement solutions to recover. Afterward, the factory must
decide on how the supply chain can be redesigned to become more resilient in the future. The SC risks can be
analyzed by simple methods like a survey2 or brainstorming.
In a factory, a team of employees can identify SC risks. The methods involve less cost in analyzing SC systems.
Methods are implemented for reconfiguration SC in improving manufacturing, compared with linear
programming and digraph methods3.
The method claims improvements in maintaining inventory. Benders decomposition has been used to study the
demand and disruptions uncertainty in the supply chain system4.
Also, the impacts of the transportation disruption on proposed Vendor Managed Inventory has been
investigated5.
The concept of the house of quality, the failure mode, and the effect analysis to obtain efficient supply chain
(SC) have been developed6. Several constraints that are to be considered in a job shop with different machines (like
lathes, milling machines, drills) were mentioned7.
The limitations are as follows:
1) There are no precedence constraints among operations of different jobs.

2) Operations cannot be interrupted (non-preemption) and each machine can handle only one job at a time.
3) Each task can be performed only on one machine at a time. While the machine sequence of the jobs is fixed,
the problem is to find the job sequences on the machines that minimize the makespan, i.e. the maximum of
the completion times of all operations.
In this work, artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy logic (FL) algorithms are used for monitoring the SCD.
To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms data sets obtained from the factory are used.
Section 2 presents the schematic flow explaining the sequence of manufacturing of bolt and nut. Section 3
presents the objective function used in evaluating the working conditions of the system.
Section 4 describes the implementation of neuro-fuzzy methods.
Section 5 presents performance comparisons of the neuro-fuzzy methods.
Section 6 presents conclusions of the present work.

II. SCD PREDICTION AND THE OVERCOMING ANALYSIS
SCD formulation based on Figure 2
Estimating the SCD and profit loss using

ANN algorithm
Identifying the category of solution based

on FL
Combining the output of FL with template

for alternative solution to mitigate SCD
Figure 1: Sequential Combining of ANN, FL and Template
Figure 1 presents the implementation of the neuro-fuzzy method for monitoring SCD.
1) Procedure has to be established that helps in identifying SCD. This implies the means of collecting data for
training and testing the neuro-fuzzy algorithms.
2) The ANN algorithm has to be training using the data collected.
3) The FL is applied to categorize the output of ANN algorithm, and
4) The output of FL is compared with already stored information in a template, and suitable corrective action is
carried to mitigate the SCD.
The different stages of developing data to analyze the presence of SCD is given in the schematic diagram (Figure
2). The sequence of steps as shown in the schematic diagram is given below:
1) Based on the customer's order, the various manufacturing elements, which lead to the final product, is
drafted,
2) Depending on the volume of production, the various quantities of raw material, and any subcontracts, to be
given with lead time for receipt of material for them should be considered,
3) The working conditions of the existing machines used for manufacturing is obtained from the maintenance
department. Different factors are taken into account. They are as follows:
a) The type of support adopted, the reliability of the various components.
b) The maintainability of the components (the time was taken to make the component work and the location
where the components are to be serviced).
c) The availability of the spare parts for replacing the components (status obtained from the inventory
department).

d) Any reconditioning process and the time required for certain costly components are considered, and
Provisions for overcoming power cuts are to be considered. Maintain healthy working environment for the
workers and motivate them to finish the jobs in time so that extra days and overtime payments can be
reduced.
1) Define the manufacturing process
2) Define the required amount of raw materials, man power, time required for completion
of the order from the customer
3) Define the design of the product, sequence of manufacturing, reliability of the working
facility, constraints like power cut, absenteeism of the labor, shortage of labor other
possible unexpected factors.
4) Define the extra number of days required to complete the order in spite of various
uncontrolled factors
Figure 2: Manufacturing Flow in the Bolt and Nut Factory
Points that have to be considered to improve the continuous supply chain are as follows:
1) Draw the manufacturing sequence for bolt and nut,
2) What are all the facilities available for each step in the production sequence of bolt and nut?
3) If there is a problem at any location either due to mishandling of equipment or poor maintenance, then how
much time it would take to rectify the problem?
4) What is the impact of the delay in manufacturing due to power failure / reduced maintenance / insufficient
inventory / non-availability of the operator? and
5) What are the existing arrangements available in the factory to maintain smooth manufacturing without any
disruption?

Figure 3 presents manufacturing stages of bolts and nuts. All the components go through specified machines
available in the factory.
The time of manufacturing at each machine varies for different types of bolts and nuts.The time between the start
and finishing off a production process can remain constant if every resource is correctly working.
Module 1: Step 1and step 2 are interrelated. They represent placing an order of required material based on the
inventory status. The received material is stored as inventory.
Module 2: It shows the process sequences like (3) forming blanks, (4) sorting the blanks and storing into bins,
(5) lubricating blanks, (6) heading the blanks, (7) threading the blanks external and internal, and (8) quality testing.
Module 3: It represents the maintenance department.
The dark blue double arrow indicates
1) Delay in purchase of material and non-availability of material in the inventory department.

2) Sufficient facility is not available to rectify the problems in the machines.
The green color double arrow indicates time slackness in not moving the in-process material from one machine
to another machine within the stipulated time due to problems in shifting the in-process material.
III. OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS FOR ESTIMATING SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION

The objective function is a set of equations which informs the management about the manufacturing cost
incurred for achieving the production target. The objective function is based on the minimum cost incurred in
manufacturing products within the stipulated time. The production cost increases due to the following situations:
1) Due to delay in receiving raw materials,

2) Non-availability of minimum inventory,
3) Machine breakdown, and
4) Not maintaining product quality and the material goes into scrap.
Many types of parameters can be used to formulate minimum manufacturing cost equation.
These parameters vary for different manufacturing companies. Deterministic and analytical model for the
objective function were used8. The function maximizes the total after-tax profit for the manufacturing facilities
constraints. The constraints are managerial constraints (resource and production) and logical consistency constraints
(feasibility, availability, demand limits, and variable non-negativity).
The outputs of their objective functions are some finished products and subassemblies at the manufacturing
facilities. Different models using stochastic analysis were developed9 for the following situations:
1) Material control that deals with economic, bills of material, cost data, and production requirements,
2) Production Control: Determines production lot sizes and lead times for each product, given material
response times, and
3) Finished Goods Stockpile (Warehouse): Determines the economic order size and quantity for each product,
using cost data, fill rate objectives, production lead times, and demand data.

(1) Receive raw

material
(2)Maintain inventory
(8) Testing and

Inspection
(3) Cut into blanks
and other shapes
(9)Maintenance
department
(4)Store in (7) Threading and
temporary bins Chamfering
(5) Lubrication (6) Heading the

and heat blank
treatment
Delay due to supply of material and maintenance
Flow of intermediate finished product
Delay in movement of finished product from one

machine to next processing machine
Figure 3: Stages of Manufacturing of Bolt and Nut
Different qualitative performance measures have been proposed to achieve the required objective function:
1) Qualitative performance measures for which there is no direct numerical measurement, although some
aspects of them may be quantified, and ii) Quantitative performance measures can be directly described
based on cost.

Cost Minimization: It is reduced to particular business units or stages as given by equation (1).
 1   1 
Manufactuing cost is α  +   (1)
1 + Machine idle time  1 + Over time 
 0 cost is minimum
Machine idle time =   (2)
> 0 cost increases 
 0 cost is minimum
Over time =   (3)
> 0 cost increases 
In equation (2), machine idle time is due to the following:
1) The breakdown of the machine,
2) The time required repairing the machine,
3) The poor maintainability and scarce of availability of spare parts and tools,
4) The time gap between change of tools or putting workpiece into the fixture, and
5) The removing of the finished workpiece from the fixture (this time difference is already defined in the
process sequence and can be neglected).
In equation (3), over time refers to 1) The working time of the laborers with double the normal wages. This can
be due to: intention of the workers to always work with over time and delay in the average working speed in the
regular shift, and 2) The manufacturing not achieved by laborers of machine numbers > 7 per day per shift due to
machine failure or breakdown of the machine numbers <=7 {It means any of the machine numbers (n-1) which is
under breakdown will result in machines (n) in not achieving the production target}.
Hence, only when the machines (n-1) is set right, then machines (n) can achieve the production target.
The production of a batch of bolt and nut is based on many manufacturing criteria. These factors include the
quantity, size, grade, bolt type and finish. To predict SCD, algorithmic modeling is used. Artificial Neural network
and fuzzy logic algorithms are trained with data obtained from bolt and manufacturing factory. In the SCD
prediction, inputs are derived from various data recorded from the log book of the maintenance department. Figure 4
presents different parameters considered for obtaining data from the log book.
Sample simulation data used for predicting SCD is given in Table 1. It shows the working conditions of the
machines as given by equation (4)
 0 not working 
Machine working condition =   (4)
 1 working 
Reasons for 0’s in Table 1: If the job is on machine number 5 and Table 1 shows machine six as 0, then machine
6 has to be rectified/replaced. Also, if the job is half-finished in machine 5 and there is break down at machine 5,
then table 1 shows 0.
In such case, the task cannot be completed on machine 5, and hence, machine 5 has to be rectified.
The reason for 1’s in Table 1: The value 1 indicates that the machine is working, and the job is in the process.
The value in each row indicates equivalent the intermediate manufacturing output of the product. The information of
Table 1 is used as training pattern for the proposed neuro-fuzzy algorithm.

Figure 4: Parameters used for Obtaining Data
Table 1: Identification of Working Condition of each Machine

Machine numbers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
Different dates
1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
The purpose of using proposed algorithm is to estimate the condition of the machine at the different
manufacturing location and consider the rectification time to find out of total time lost for manufacturing one batch
of products. The algorithm is an enhanced method to understand the actual behavior of the supply chain in
manufacturing one batch of products. The algorithm will indicate any alternative solution based on the knowledge
database created by the company over a period.
IV. INTEGRATED NEURO-FUZZY METHOD WITH SUPPLY CHAIN KNOWLEDGE DATABASE

In this work, the neuro-fuzzy methods have two working stages: 1) To estimate the condition of the working
process of the machine using ANN algorithm, and 2) To provide an alternative solution using fuzzy logic by
combining with the knowledge base. ANN and FL are very well established methods that have been proved to be
good in many applications. The neuro-fuzzy system represents a combination of any of the ANN algorithms with
fuzzy logic. Without using fuzzy logic, the ANN would work as input and output mapping. If and else rules are

applied to the outputs of the ANN obtained in the output layer, and an understandable output is produced by
carrying out further actions. Fuzzy logic is applied to the outputs of every neuron in the hidden layer. Two different
approaches can be developed to model a neuro-fuzzy algorithm: 1) ANN algorithm can be trained separately with
the available patterns and outputs can be obtained in the output layer. These outputs are used as inputs for the fuzzy
logic module. The outputs of fuzzy logic modules can be the final output for taking any decision on the application.
The algorithm used in ANN can be supervised or unsupervised or recurrent and, 2) The fuzzy logic can be applied to
hidden layers and output layer of ANN. Hence, the method-1 can be called neuro-fuzzy.
In all types of neuro-fuzzy methods, many layers are present. Layer-1 is used for inputting values. Layer-2 is
used for membership function (this can be a two level, three or more levels of thresholds used). Layer-3 is used for
inference of the combined information obtained from Layer-2. Layer -4 is used for defuzzification (based on any of
the 15 defuzzification methods, most commonly used is the central rule) and many more layers can be appended for
getting the desired outputs. These outputs finally represent a mapping of the inputs in the input layer.
The performance of neuro-fuzzy methods can be improved by choosing particular ANN algorithm out of supervised
/ unsupervised / recurrent, based on the availability of targets for each input pattern.
Different types of neural and fuzzy combined architectures were developed. They are: 1) Adaptive network
based fuzzy Inference System10, 2) Neuronal fuzzy controller11, 3) Fuzzy inference and neural network in fuzzy
inference software12, 4) Fuzzy net13, and 5) Self-constructing neural fuzzy inference network14. These were used for
process control data analysis, data classification, imperfections detection, and support for decision-making.
Quantitative methods for risk mitigation has been proposed15. They are decision tree analysis, scenario analysis,
and stress testing. Parallely fuzzy logic and ANN were developed for SCD analysis. Many mathematical models
have been developed for the various components of supply chain related analysis16-19. In these models, fuzzy
numbers were used to represent uncertainty in parameters like product demands, machine uptimes, safety targets,
delivery times or capacity. ANNs have been used to design supply chain related tasks20. The use of neuro-fuzzy
method provides quantitative methods that enable decision makers to base their management policies on reliable
results and data analysis. Categorization of information has to be done based on the outputs of different algorithms.
The categorization has to be carried out based on
1) Depending upon a different number of hierarchies used. The hierarchy refers to a number of hidden layers in
the ANN topology used.
2) Depending upon a possible range of outputs that will be obtained from ANN. That is, if the activation
function is sigmoid, the range of output is 0 to 1. If the activation function is tanh, then the range of output is
-1 to 1. If the activation function is exponential, then the output can lie in the location of the basin shape of
the output.
3) Depending upon the expected number of categorization to understand the status of SCD. In this work, only
two ranges are considered. It is 100% smooth supply chain during manufacturing; then SCD is not present.
There are some difficulties in manufacturing; then SCD is present. Table 2 shows the ranges to be
considered for two level SCD analysis.

Table 2: Description of Categoriztion of SCD Decision

Range SCD Description
< 0.5 Present There is a breakdown in manufacturing. Atleast one machine is not working
≥0.5 Not present All the machines are working. The manufacturing target can be reached.
A. Neuro-fuzzy Architecture with Supervised Algorithm
Description of the Flow of Information in Figure 5

1) Generate training and testing patterns from the data available in the records.
2) Multiply with initial weight matrix between the input layer and hidden layer of the ANN using forward
propagation.
3) Apply activation function to the outputs of nodes in the hidden layer.
4) Apply rules for the outputs of activation functions for all the nodes in the hidden layer
5) Multiply the weight matrix between the hidden layer and output layer of the ANN with outputs obtained
from step 4.
6) Apply activation function to the outputs of nodes in the output layer.
a) If unsupervised ANN algorithm, then update the weights between output- hidden layer, hidden to the input
layer. Present all the patterns until the patterns are grouped in such a way that, one unique node fires in the
output layer for a group of patterns.
b) If supervised algorithm or recurrent algorithms, then use the target outputs. Find the error among the target
outputs and outputs obtained from the output layer of the ANN. If the error is minimized, stop training else
modify the weights between output- hidden layer, hidden to input the layer until there is an input-output
mapping is achieved.
Figure 5: Flow of Computation in Neuro-Fuzzy Logic

Description of the Fuzzy logic module in Figure 5: The following steps are shown in Figure 5.
Step 1: The activation values of a hidden layer are input to the fuzzy logic.
Step 2: Fuzzy membership function is used to form membership value to categorize the activation values.
Step 3: Inference is performed using values of the membership table.
Step 4: Final output is obtained through defuzzification process.
Membership table formation in fuzzy logic: Membership is the association of value of a feature (Xf) to the value
of another feature (Yf). For example, if (0<Xf<0.5) and (0.5<Yf<1), then membership is the association of each
value of Xf to each value of Yf. The amount of percentage of association is expressed regarding degrees of
membership.
Estimating the status of SCD using the neuro-fuzzy method: The network is trained with 500 patterns of set-1
and tested with 500 different patterns of set-2 corresponding to the working status of facilities obtained from the
factory. The outputs obtained from the proposed model is closer to the estimation obtained from the ANFIS module
of the Matlab. ANFIS module has been used by many researchers, and it would be easier to compare with ANFIS
module instead of considering other types of neuro-fuzzy systems.
Machine status membership functions for neuro-fuzzy computations can be seen from Table 3. There are four
rules set as below:
Table 3: Fuzzy logic rules

Membership function Reasons
No SCD If all the machines are working
[ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1]
10% SCD If only the 10th (last machine) in the sequence is not working, [1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0]
20% SCD More than one machine is not working. In this situation, the time for repairing the machines may
be more.
>20% SCD Any other problems can exist.
V. PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT NEURO-FUZZY ALGORITHMS

Different ANN algorithms are combined with the fuzzy logic module. The performance of each combination of
ANN algorithm with fuzzy logic is presented in Figure 6.
Figure 6: Performance of Proposed Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithms

Figure 6 presents the performances of the neuro-fuzzy algorithms in detecting ‘No SCD,' ‘10% SCD,' ‘20%
SCD’and greater than ‘20% SCD.' All the five algorithms show 100% performance when the data has no SCD
information. Performance changes among the algorithms, only when there is SCD information, is present. The
performance of ANFIS and LWPR+FL are only 85% when the SCD is 10%, whereas the performances of BPA+FL,
RBF+FL and ESNN+FL are 100%. Incase of 20% SCD, the performance of ESNN+FL is 95% which is better than
that of BPA+FL, LWPR+FL, and ANFIS. RBF+FL is supposed to be the best and gives the performance of 100%
with 20%SCD when compared to the other algorithms. However, when the SCD is more than 20%, the
performanceof ESNN+FL provides 95% which is the best when compared to the remaining algorithms.
In this work, less than 20% SCD has been considered to be tolerable. This condition represents problems in the
manufacturing line that can be rectified quickly, and still the target of manufacturing can be reached with minimum
loss. If the SCD is greater than 20 %, then a decision has to be taken by the factory management to revamp the
manufacturing facility with the new setup. All the five algorithms perform well in identifying ‘No SCD’ condition.
The performance of the algorithms varies when the fault in the number of machines increase. The performance of
algorithms purely depends on the type of data presented, the type of rules formulated in fuzzy logic, and the range of
interpretations fixed in the outputs of the algorithms. Some of the training properties of the proposed combinations
of algorithms are presented in Table 4. Each type of ANN algorithm mentioned in Table 4 is mostly influenced by
its activation functions and the type of weight updating rules. The derivation of weight updating equation is
connected with the type of activation function used in the ANN.
Table 4: Training Properties of Different Algorithms

Algorithm Weight forming mechanism Stopping the Final weights formation Activation
training process function used
Back-propagation Feed forward for input – Many iterations Weight matrices are assigned Sigmoid
algorithm (BPA) output mapping. Weight required to reach a initial values. Weights are function
with Fuzzy Logic updating equation from mean squared error obtained for each input–output
(FL) output to input layer through criteria (MSE) pattern
hidden layer
Radial basis Centers are decided. Only one iteration Weight matrices are not Exponential
function (RBF) Distance between centers is required assigned initial values. Weight function
with FL and the input patterns are matrix is formed by multiplying
found to create an RBF RBF matrix with target outputs.
matrix
Echostate neural Reservoir in the hidden layer Only one iteration Weight matrices are assigned Tanh function
network (ESNN) is fixed to obtain state is required initial values. Final weight
with FL vectors for all the input matrix is formed by multiplying
training patterns state vector matrix with target
outputs.
Locally weighted Number of receptive fields Many iterations Weight matrices are assigned Exponential
projection are fixed required to reach a initial values. Final weight function
regression (LWPR) mean squared error matrix is formed by multiplying
with FL criteria (MSE) state vector matrix with target
outputs.
Fuzzy logic Radial distance is used Many iterations Fuzzy parameter matrices are Different
required to reach a obtained signum
mean squared error functions are
criteria (MSE) used

It is the practice to consider the parameters in the results and discussion for the ANN and FL. The parameters are
1) Number of hidden layers in the ANN topology, 2) a correct number of nodes in each hidden layer, 3) Constant
values assigned to training parameters, 4) Initial range of weight values assigned to layers, and 5) Stopping criteria
for the ANN training algorithm. However, in this work, the performance of the proposed algorithms for detecting
the presence of SCD during testing is presented using the test data (set-2). Table 5 shows the distributions of
patterns used for training and testing the proposed combinations of algorithms.
Table 5: Patterns Used for Training and Testing Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithms

All machines working (No SCD) 10%SCD 20%SCD >20% SCD Total patterns
Training 300 50 50 100 500
Testing 300 50 50 100 500
Total 600 100 100 200 1000
A. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)
Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves have long been used to evaluate classifier performance,
especially in pattern recognition. Whenever pattern recognition algorithms like ANN, FL are used for any
application, ROC plays an important role in giving the performance of the algorithms. The different points on the
ROC curve indicate the performance of the algorithms for different sets of data. In this work, 1000 patterns of data
have been obtained from company records. One point in the ROC is obtained by testing the algorithms using (set-2
data which is the testing patterns). To obtain the remaining nine points in the ROC, (the set-2 data) is modified nine
different times. Hence, additional 9 points in the ROC is obtained. The modifications of the data are done at random.
The ROC curve provides information on the tradeoff between the hit rate (true positives) and the false alarm
rates (false positives). To draw the ROC curve both positive (fault) and negative (no-fault) examples are needed.
ROC curve is drawn using a set of positive and negative examples.
1) True positive: -If the data contains information about a defect in one of the machines, and if the proposed
algorithms detect the presence of a defect, then it is truly positive,
2) False negative: - If the data contains information about a defect and if the proposed algorithms do not detect
the presence of a defect, then it is false negative,
3) True negative: If the data does not contain information about a defect and if the proposed algorithms do not
detect a defect, then it is truly negative, and
4) False positive: If the data does not contain information about a defect and if the proposed algorithm says
there is a defect, then it is false positive.
B. Accuracy of SCD Detection
The accuracy refers to how correctly, the proposed algorithms identify the presence of faulty machines in the
manufacturing line. Let us assume that there are 50 patterns of data with faulty machine status. If the proposed
algorithms can precisely identify faulty machine status in all the 50 patterns, then, the algorithms possess the
capability of providing 100% SCD detection. The detection rate is computed using the formula shown below.

𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 (5)
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇+𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇+𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹+𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 (6)
Where
FP—False Positive,
FN—False Negative,
TP—True Positive, and
TN—True Negative.
The sensitivity represents the amount of true positive ( detecting the fault from the test patterns) identified.
Higher the sensitivity value, the algorithm is good in detecting the faults.
The accuracy represents whether the patterns having faults and no-faults are correctly identified by the
algorithms. Higher the accuracy value, higher is the performance of the algorithms.
Figure 7: ROC for BPA+FL Algorithm for SCD Estimation
Figure 7 shows ten points. Each point represents one (set-2 test patterns). All the points are above the diagonal
(0,0 and 1,1). When the points are above the diagonal, they indicate that BPA+FL identifies the faults and no fault
conditions correctly. The range of TPR value is 0.87 to 0.96, and the range of FPR value is 0.01 to 0.06.
Figure 8: ROC for RBF+FL Algorithm for SCD Estimation

(0,0 and 1,1). When the points are above the diagonal, they indicate that RBF+FL identifies the faults and no fault
Figure 9: ROC for LWPR+FL Algorithm for SCD Estimation
Figure 9 shows ten points. Each point represents one (set-2 test patterns). All the points are above the diagonal (
0,0 and 1,1). When the points are above the diagonal, they indicate that LWPR+FL identifies the faults and no fault
Figure 10: ROC for ESNN+FL Algorithm for SCD Estimation
(0,0 and 1,1). When the points are above the diagonal, they indicate that ESNN+FL identifies the faults and no fault

Figure 11: Accuracy of the Proposed Algorithms
Figure 11 presents bar chart comparing the accuracies of the implemented neuro-fuzzy algorithms for ten
different (set-2 test patterns). ESNN+FL provides the highest accuracy when compared to other three algorithms in
all the ten testings. The accuracy varies between 88.235% and 97.59%. The accuracy of BPA+FL is the least in all
the ten testings. The difference in the accuracies of the four algorithms is wide in range and consistent during
testings (1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10). Similarly, the difference in the accuracies of the four algorithms is very close during
testings (2, 5, 6, 7).
Figure 12: Sensitivity of the Proposed Algorithms
Figure 12 presents bar chart comparing the sensitivities of the implemented neuro-fuzzy algorithms for ten
different (set-2 test patterns).
The average sensitivity of BPA+FL=90.416%, RBF+FL=89.916%, LWPR+FL=89.66%, and

ESNN+FL=90.916%. BPA+FL is more sensitive to changes in the patterns whereas RBF+FL (preferable) is less
sensitive to changes in the patterns.

VI. CONCLUSION
Estimation of the supply chain disruption in a bolt and nut manufacturing factory is presented. The working
status of the various facilities in the factory is collected and converted into numerical values to form patterns. These
patters are used to train and test the neuro-fuzzy methods. The proposed methods are superior to existing methods in
that they could estimate the status of SCD even if there is a loss of data partially or if few inputs are given with
slight changes. The proposed methods are different in the sense they can learn huge amount of patterns obtained
from the factory for estimating the SCD. The methods provide new directions for the actual usage of neuro-fuzzy
methods in the SCD estimation. The methods have multifold advantages. The advantages are:
1) ESNN is a recurrent algorithm. The internal nodes (reservoirs) of the ESNN stores different states of the
SCD and NO SCD patterns during training. These states in a combination of the FL provides best estimation
of the amount SCD.
2) BPA learns the patterns with repeated iterations. It converges globally when the alpha, beta parameters
when correctly set. Hence, this algorithm can learn SCD data. If time is not a constraint, then BPA + FL can
be used for SCD estimation.
3) LWPR uses the concept of RBF and projection regression. Due to this property, it can learn thousands of
data and hence LWPR + FL can be used for training an enormous number of patterns.
4) RBF learns all the SCD patterns in one iteration. It is the advantage of RBF. When a correct number of
centers are decided in RBF, then RBF+FL will be suitable for SCD estimation. All the proposed neuro-fuzzy
algorithms perform best in estimating no SCD condition. However, when the fault in the number of the
machine increases, then the performance of the proposed algorithms varies. As a future work, the proposed
algorithms can be extended to the factory with a number of machines and more manufacturing constraints
involved.
Earlier works on SCD management used linear programming, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm and neural
networks. The neuro-fuzzy methods provide better advantages over other existing methods regarding quicker
learning and the estimation of the SCD with less error. Any company can use the proposed algorithms to customize
for their manufacturing environment.
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International Journal of Printing, Packaging & Allied Sciences, Vol. 4, No.

5, December 2016 3351

Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Methods in

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

The limitations are as follows:

1) There are no precedence constraints among operations of different jobs.

Section 4 describes the implementation of neuro-fuzzy methods.

Section 5 presents performance comparisons of the neuro-fuzzy methods.

Section 6 presents conclusions of the present work.

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

II. SCD PREDICTION AND THE OVERCOMING ANALYSIS

SCD formulation based on Figure 2

Estimating the SCD and profit loss using

Identifying the category of solution based

Combining the output of FL with template

Figure 1: Sequential Combining of ANN, FL and Template

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

1) Define the manufacturing process

Figure 2: Manufacturing Flow in the Bolt and Nut Factory

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Module 3: It represents the maintenance department.

The dark blue double arrow indicates

1) Delay in purchase of material and non-availability of material in the inventory department.

III. OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS FOR ESTIMATING SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION

1) Due to delay in receiving raw materials,

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

(1) Receive raw

(8) Testing and

(5) Lubrication (6) Heading the

Delay due to supply of material and maintenance

Flow of intermediate finished product

Delay in movement of finished product from one

Figure 3: Stages of Manufacturing of Bolt and Nut

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Figure 4: Parameters used for Obtaining Data

Table 1: Identification of Working Condition of each Machine

IV. INTEGRATED NEURO-FUZZY METHOD WITH SUPPLY CHAIN KNOWLEDGE DATABASE

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Table 2: Description of Categoriztion of SCD Decision

A. Neuro-fuzzy Architecture with Supervised Algorithm

Description of the Flow of Information in Figure 5

Figure 5: Flow of Computation in Neuro-Fuzzy Logic

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Step 3: Inference is performed using values of the membership table.

Step 4: Final output is obtained through defuzzification process.

Table 3: Fuzzy logic rules

V. PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT NEURO-FUZZY ALGORITHMS

Figure 6: Performance of Proposed Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithms

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Table 4: Training Properties of Different Algorithms

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Table 5: Patterns Used for Training and Testing Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithms

A. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)

B. Accuracy of SCD Detection

ISSN 2320-4387 | © EDITOR IJPPAS

Figure 7: ROC for BPA+FL Algorithm for SCD Estimation