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Wang 2010
To cite this article: Haikun Wang & Lixin Fu (2010) Developing a High-Resolution Vehicular Emission Inventory by
Integrating an Emission Model and a Traffic Model: Part 1—Modeling Fuel Consumption and Emissions Based on
Speed and Vehicle-Specific Power, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 60:12, 1463-1470, DOI:
10.3155/1047-3289.60.12.1463
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TECHNICAL PAPER ISSN:1047-3289 J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 60:1463–1470
DOI:10.3155/1047-3289.60.12.1463
Copyright 2010 Air & Waste Management Association
emission models, this study proposes a speed and vehicle- portation management to reduce vehicular emissions and
specific power (VSP) modeling method to estimate vehic- fuel consumption.4 Capabilities are needed to establish
ular emissions and fuel consumption using data gathered high-resolution emission inventories and to evaluate the
by a portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS). The effectiveness of traffic-related measures to reduce air pol-
PEMS data were categorized into discrete speed-VSP bins lution.5,6 To achieve this result, the integration of vehicle
on the basis of the characteristics of vehicle driving con- emission models and travel demand models (TDMs) are
ditions and emissions in Chinese cities. Speed-VSP modal necessary. However, because neither TDM nor vehicle
average rates of emissions (or fuel consumption) and the emission models were originally developed to address
time spent in the corresponding speed-VSP bins were then conformity practice, specific issues need to be addressed
used to calculate the total trip emissions (or fuel con- to ensure these two modeling processes are combined in a
sumption) and emission factors (or fuel economy) under compatible way.7
specific average link speeds. The model approach was Vehicle emission models based on average speed
validated by comparing it against measured data with (e.g., MOBILE and COPERT) were widely applied to re-
prediction errors within 20% for trip emissions and link- gional and national emissions inventories in the world.
speed-based emission factors. This analysis is based on They use the assumption that average emissions factors
the data of light-duty gasoline vehicles in China; how- for a given pollutant and vehicle type vary according to
ever, this research approach could be generalized to the average speed during a trip. Thus, they can be inte-
other vehicle fleets in other countries. This modeling grated with macroscopic TDM, the output of which is
method could also be coupled with traffic demand average link or grid speeds.6 –10 However, average-speed
models to establish high-resolution emissions invento- models cannot account for the fact that trips may have
ries and evaluate the impacts of traffic-related emission very different driving characteristics, and therefore differ-
control measures. ent emission levels, while attaining the same average
speed. Furthermore, these models could not be used to
INTRODUCTION calculate vehicular emissions in detailed spatial resolution
On-road traffic-related emissions have become the domi- and therefore may not be coupled with microscopic TDM.
nant source of air pollution in the urban area of China, Microscopic emission models (e.g., comprehensive
which has undergone dramatic growth of its vehicle pop- modal emissions model [CMEM] and the Virginia Tech
ulation in recent years.1–3 In addition to improving the microscopic model [VT-Micro]), estimate instantaneous
vehicular emissions using engine or speed/acceleration
data.11,12 The CMEM, which can output emission rates
IMPLICATIONS (ERs), vehicle speed, and acceleration on a second-by-
Because on-road vehicles have become a dominant source
second level, was coupled with microscopic traffic models
of air pollution and energy consumption (and greenhouse
to present high spatial resolution emission invento-
gas emissions) in many cities in China, it is necessary to
develop methods to accurately estimate vehicular emis- ries.13–15 However, because of the substantial amounts of
sions. However, emission inventories typically used in input data, the integration of microscopic emission mod-
China were based on the MOBILE model or equivalent els and traffic models was mainly applied to estimate
macroscale models, which could cause significant biases small-scale traffic emissions.
compared with the real situations. In this study, a speed- Power demand is a key variable that explains the
VSP-based model was developed using PEMS data, which vehicle fuel consumption rate (FCR) and ER. Thus vehicle-
will enable the integration of vehicular emissions models specific power (VSP), a surrogate for power demand orig-
with traffic demand models to more precisely evaluate inally reported by Jimenez-Palacios in his Ph.D. thesis16
traffic-related emissions.
that has been found to be highly correlated with fuel
consumption and emissions, was used in many studies on
Volume 60 December 2010 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1463
Wang and Fu
vehicular emissions modeling.17–20 VSP is also the core in China tested in this study, including privately owned
parameter of driving condition in MOVES,21 which will and business-owned cars and taxis. As mentioned in the
substitute for MOBILE as the U.S. Environmental Protec- authors’ previous study,3 China implemented Euro I, Euro
tion Agency (EPA)’s next-generation vehicle emissions II, and Euro III emission standards in 2000, 2004, and
model. However, some studies also indicated that a bias is 2007 and will implement Euro IV emission standard in
likely when using VSP as the only parameter of driving 2010 nationwide, so the major technologies in the cur-
conditions to simulate vehicular emissions, particularly rent Chinese vehicle fleet include carburetor; electronic-
under high- or low-speed driving conditions.22 In addi- injection without three-way catalytic converter; and ad-
tion, VSP is a proxy parameter combining speed, acceler- ditional technologies used meet Euro I, Euro II, and Euro
ation, and road grade, which does not intuitively reflect III emission standards. In this study, the vehicles were
road traffic conditions such as speed or acceleration. It selected to cover the most commonly used engines and
cannot directly correlate with the TDM, which usually exhaust control technologies in typical cities to represent
outputs the average link or grid speed. Although vehicle the in-use fleet in China. The model years of these vehi-
speed was introduced and divided into three levels (⬍25 cles ranged from 1993 to 2008 with the accumulated
mph, ⬃25–50 mph, and ⬎50 mph) in MOVES, the three vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from 5000 to 600,000 km.
speed categories are too broad to integrate with the TDM. The vehicles were operated on regular routes in the
Portable emissions monitoring systems (PEMS), which urban area under different driving conditions, which cov-
can produce instantaneous data and characterize variability ered common activities (e.g., commuting, shopping, and
in emissions and fuel consumption under real-world vehicle entertainment) in different functional areas (e.g., com-
activities and traffic conditions,20,23,24 were applied here to mercial area and residential areas) and different times
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develop an instantaneous model for calculating vehicular (e.g., peak and nonpeak hours of city traffic). The PEMS
fuel consumption and emissions. The method for this dataset for the 71 vehicles has a total of 74 hr of records,
model based on the combination of speed and VSP was including second-by-second FCR, ER, vehicle speed, and
developed using available PEMS data that the authors col- GPS coordinates.
lected in four Chinese cities from 2004 to 2008.25 The mod- These data were subsequently divided into a calibra-
eling method was also validated. In part 2 of this research, a tion dataset and a validation dataset. The calibration data-
case study applying the emission model developed in this set was used to develop the speed and VSP-based emis-
part and a TDM to establish high-resolution vehicular emis- sions model (SVEM), and the validation dataset was
sion inventory for Beijing city will be discussed. applied to evaluate the predictive ability of this model.
Five hundred seconds of continuous second-by-second
METHODOLOGY data selected from each test vehicle were combined to
This section describes the analysis of PEMS data, applies produce a 35,500-sec validation dataset; the remaining
the speed and VSP modal approach to estimate vehicular 230,900 sec were retained for the development of the
ER and FCR, and validates this modal approach from SVEM.
various aspects.
VSP and Demarcation
PEMS Data VSP is defined as the engine power output per unit mass
The PEMS used in this study consists of four major sys- of the vehicle and is expressed as the function of speed,
tems: the Corrys–Datron Microstar noncontact velocity acceleration, and road grade. The detailed derivation pro-
sensor, the Corrys–Datron DFL-2 fuel flow meter, an OTC cedures of VSP could be found in Jimenez-Palacios’s doc-
Microgas 5-gas exhaust analyzer, and a global positioning toral thesis.16 This study applied the following simplified
system (GPS). They were used to measure the vehicle expression29 to calculate VSP (eq. 1):
driving parameters, FCR, tailpipe ER, and geographic co-
ordinates. This instrument has been widely used in the
authors’ previous research, and a more detailed descrip- VSP(kW/t) ⫽ ⫻ 共a ⫻ 共1 ⫹ εi兲 ⫹ g ⫻ grade ⫹ g ⫻ CR兲
tion of it may be found in the published papers.26 –28 The 1 CD ⫻ A
PEMS reported data for vehicle speed, location, and ER on ⫹ 共 ⫹ w兲2 䡠 v ⫹ Cif ⫻ g ⫻
2 a m
a second-by-second basis. Road grade is computed based
on the difference in altitude and distance between two ⫽ ⫻ 关1.1a ⫹ 9.81 ⫻ 共a tan共sin共grade兲兲兲
consecutive readings. ⫹ 0.132兴 ⫹ 0.000302 ⫻ 3 (1)
It should be noted that the 5-gas analyzer was cali-
brated with calibrating gases before the test started, and
this process was repeated every 20 working hours. The where VSP is the VSP (kW/t); v is the vehicle speed (m/
errors of the analyzer were ⬍3% after the calibration and sec); a is the vehicle acceleration (m/sec2); m is the vehicle
⬍5% after 20 working hours for all pollutants examined. mass (kg); and εi is the “mass factor,” which is the equiv-
The correlations between the 5-gas analyzer and labora- alent translational mass of the rotating components
tory dynamometer measurements were high for carbon (wheels, gears, shafts, etc.) of the powertrain (unitless).
monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitric oxide (NO), The suffix i indicates that εi is gear dependent; grade
and hydrocarbons (HCs) as indicated in correlation coef- indicates road grade (degrees); g is the acceleration of
ficients (R2), which ranged from 0.91 to 0.97. gravity (9.8 m/sec2); CR is the coefficient of rolling resis-
There were 71 light-duty gasoline vehicles (LGVs) tance (unitless); CD is the drag coefficient (unitless); A is
from Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu cities the frontal area of the vehicle (m2); a is the ambient air
1464 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 60 December 2010
Wang and Fu
density (1.207 kg/m3 at 20 °C); and vw is the headwind emissions of vehicle type i (g); FCi is the total trip fuel
into the vehicle (m/sec). consumption for vehicle type i (L); FCRi,k is the modal
On the basis of second-by-second PEMS data, VSP average FCR in k speed-VSP bin for vehicle type i (L/hr);
were calculated and then grouped into discrete bins. ERi,k is the modal average ER in k speed-VSP bin for
When determining the number of VSP bins, two consid- vehicle type i (g/hr); ti,k is the trip time spent of vehicle
erations17,19 were taken into account: (1) bins should have type i in speed-VSP bin k (hr); EFi is the trip-based emis-
statistically different average FCR and ER from each other; sion factors (EFs) (g/km); FEi is the trip-based fuel econ-
and (2) no single bin should dominate the estimate of omy (FE) (km/L); and TL is the trip length (km).
total fuel consumption or emissions. The road link- or grid-based EF and FE under a specific
average speed are estimated as follows (eq. 4):
Speed-VSP-Based Fuel Consumption
and Emission Estimates
冘
J
Vehicle speed was divided into different bins and com- EF m 共or FEm兲 ⫽ ERn,j 共or FCRn,j兲 ⫻ Rn,j/m (4)
bined with the VSP bins to simulate the impact of driving j
conditions on fuel consumption and emissions. Thus, the
amount of speed-VSP bins in this study should be the
where m is the link (or grid) index; n is the speed bin
arithmetic product of numbers of speed bins and VSP
index; j is the VSP bin index, 1, 2,…, J (J ⫽ number of VSP
bins. Modal average of FCR and ER were estimated for
bins); EFm is the EF on link (or in grid) m (g/km); FEm is
each speed-VSP bin, and the total trip-based emissions
the FE on link (or in grid) m (L/km); ERn,j is the ER in
and fuel consumption could be estimated as follows (eqs.
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speed bin n and VSP bin j (g/hr); FERn,j is the FCR in speed
2 and 3):
bin n and VSP bin j (L/hr); Rn,j is the time proportion
spent in speed bin n and VSP bin j (%); and vm is the
冘
K
average speed on link (or in grid) m, which located within
E i 共or FCi兲 ⫽ ERi,k 共or FCRi,k兲 ⫻ ti,k (2) speed bin n (km/hr).
k
Figure 1. Average (a) FCR and ER for (b) NOx, (c) HCs, and (d) CO vs. VSP on the basis of test vehicle data. The bars show 95% confidence
intervals of the mean for each VSP bin.
Volume 60 December 2010 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1465
Wang and Fu
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Figure 2. Impacts of speed and VSP on vehicular (a) FCR and ER for (b) CO, (c) HCs, and (d) NOx. The data represent the LGV fleet meeting
Euro II emission standards.
more than 95% of the driving conditions on China’s impact of key VSP bins on vehicular fuel consumption or
urban roads are located in the VSP range from ⫺20 to 20 emissions and ensures the accuracy of model results.
kW/t. Therefore, this study focuses on the VSP at approx- The ERs of CO and HCs were found to be more
imately ⫺20 to 20 kW/t to simulate the emissions and fuel sensitive to the variation of VSP than the FCRs or ERs of
consumptions for LGV in China’s urban area. The rela- NOx, especially in the ranges of the high absolute value of
tionships between VSP and FCR and ER were investigated VSP, which correspond to the driving conditions of rapid
as illustrated in Figure 1. acceleration or deceleration. During these driving pat-
Figure 1 shows similar characteristics for FCR and ER terns, the engine operation is unstable and significant
of various pollutants as VSP changes, and a VSP of 0 kW/t fuel is injected during acceleration, which can lead to
is the inflection point. When the VSP value is positive, incomplete combustion and result in high CO and HC
FCR and ER indicate a monotonic rise with the increase of emissions.
VSP. FCR and ER tend to be very low and almost invari- It should be noted that there is an apparent decrease
able for negative VSP. Therefore, define driving condi- for FCR and ER, especially for HCs and CO, in the very
tions could be defined into fewer VSP bins during the high VSP range (i.e., VSP ⬎ 20 kW/t). This may be caused
negative range while the VSP was used as an explanatory by the fact that vehicles driven in very high VSP ranges
variable to estimate vehicular fuel consumption and emis- are rare in China’s cities. Thus, the average FCR and ER in
sions. This not only reduces the number of VSP bins and the high VSP bins are based on a relatively small amount
simplifies the modeling process, but it also reflects the of PEMS data. Reliability of the model results for high VSP
VSP Binsa
Speedb <ⴚ2 (ⴚ2, 0] (0,1) [1,3) [3,5) [5,7) [7,9) [9,11) [11,13) >13
Idle 0
(0, 10) 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110
[10, 20) 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210
[20, 30) 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310
[30, 40) 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410
[40, 50) 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510
[50, 60) 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610
[60, 70) 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710
[70, 80) 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810
[80, 100) 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910
ⱖ100 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010
1466 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 60 December 2010
Wang and Fu
Table 2. Classifications of LGVs in this study. with VSP to estimate the vehicular fuel consumption and
emissions. The introduction of speed can also facilitate
Fleet Engine Size Emission Standard the integrating of fuel consumption and emissions model
with TDM. Vehicle speed was divided into 10 bins in this
LGV01 ⬍1.4 l Pre-Euro study. Then, a total of 100 speed-VSP bins of driving
LGV02 Euro I conditions were defined for the vehicle operating-exhaust
LGV03 Euro II process as shown in Table 1. Zero speed was defined as the
LGV04 Euro III idle mode.
LGV11 1.4–2.0l Pre-Euro The LGVs were classified into 12 fleets (as shown in
LGV12 Euro I
Table 2) in this study on the basis of the engine displace-
LGV13 Euro II
ment and emissions standards, which is similar to the
LGV14 Euro III
LGV21 ⬎2.0l Pre-Euro rules of the COPERT model.33
LGV22 Euro I Average FCR and ER in every speed-VSP bin were
LGV23 Euro II initially calculated for each test vehicle. Fleet average FCR
LGV24 Euro III and ER were estimated as the averages from vehicles in
this fleet. All of the calculation processes were performed
using Python programming language. Figure 3 illustrates
bins is in question. Furthermore, bumps or holes in the the FCR and ER of NOx in each speed-VSP bin for the fleet
road may also impact speed measurement when using of LGV 12.
Figure 3 shows that the impact of driving condi-
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Figure 3. (a) FCR and (b) ER of NOx in each speed-VSP bin modeled by SVEM for the LGV 13 fleet meeting Euro II emission standards.
Volume 60 December 2010 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1467
Wang and Fu
Figure 4. Comparisons of instantaneous (a) FCR and ER for (b) CO, (c) HCs, and (d) NOx between measured and modeled values for a test
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during the development of SVEM. In this study, the EFs under Various Speeds. Under a combination of vehicle
abnormal data must meet either of the following two driving conditions, SVEM can be applied to simulate ve-
conditions: (1) the negative data of vehicle emissions hicular FE and EFs for various speed bins through eq 4.
and FCRs or (2) the points that were over 50 times the Figure 5 illustrates the comparisons of modeled and mea-
average value in each VSP bin. sured data for the LGV 11 fleet.
The sensitivity of SVEM to the instantaneous varia- Figure 5 shows a good fit between the modeled and
tions of speed and acceleration offers a unique tool for measured data, and all of the modeled EFs under various
assessing the environmental impact of traffic manage- speed bins lie within the 95% confidence intervals. Fur-
ment projects, such as traffic signals adjustment and in- thermore, SVEM modeled values generally follow the
telligent transportation system (ITS) technologies. mean EF calculated by measured data. Specifically, the
Figure 5. Model validation for the LGV 11 fleet under various speed bins. The bars show 95% confidence intervals on the mean of all of the
test vehicles in the LGV 11 fleet for each speed bin. EFs for (a) CO, (b) CO2, (c) HCs, and (d) NOx.
1468 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 60 December 2010
Wang and Fu
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Figure 6. Comparisons of trip (a) fuel consumption and emissions between measured and modeled
values for (b) CO, (c) HC, and (d) NOx emissions.
errors in the EFs of CO, CO2, HCs, and NOx do not exceed weight. These problems could be addressed in the fu-
20% within any of the speed bins. ture when more vehicle tests are conducted under var-
Because TDM always outputs the average traffic flow ious driving conditions in China.
and speed on the road links (or in the grids), SVEM can be
easily integrated with these TDM through the parameter SUMMARY
of speed to evaluate the environmental effect of traffic A vehicular fuel consumption and emissions model based
management, land use, and traffic planning. on speed and VSP has been developed for LGV with on-
road measurement data. It can reasonably simulate vehic-
Trip-Based Fuel Consumption and Emissions. Vehicular trip ular instantaneous or aggregate fuel consumption and
fuel consumption and emissions of CO, CO2, HCs, and emissions. As more and more PEMS data for specific ve-
NOx may be calculated using eq 2. Figure 6 shows the hicles are obtained in the future, the accuracy of this
modeled and measured trip fuel consumptions and emis- model will be improved. The SVEM methodology may
also be extended to other types of on-road vehicles (e.g.,
sions for the test vehicles in this study.
buses and trucks) when PEMS data for these vehicles are
The modeled and measured trip values of fuel con-
available.
sumptions and emissions for the test vehicles are in good
Because SVEM applies speed and VSP as the proxy
agreement, and the differences between them are all
parameters of vehicle driving conditions, it has the char-
within 20%. For fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, acteristics of micro- and macroscale emission models. It
the differences are no more than 10%. enables the integration of real-world ERs with a traffic
It should be noted that vehicle emission models have simulation model, which usually provides links or grid
inherent uncertainties because they simplify complex levels of vehicle activities.
real-world processes.34 Even for the same vehicle with the
same driving parameters, the emissions simulated by the
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
model also differ from the measurement.4 The differences
This work was supported by the China National Nature
between the modeled and measured values in this study
Science Foundation (project no. 51008155). The au-
are mainly due to the following reasons. First, the vehicles thors thank Yu Zhou, Xin Lin, He Li, and Tingkun Yan
tested in this study were primarily driven on urban roads. in the Department of Environmental Science and Engi-
Thus, some speed-VSP bins of SVEM, especially within neering at Tsinghua University for their contributions
high-speed VSP regions, were based on few data and in the on-road vehicular emissions measurement. The
their reliability is low. Second, the FCR and ER in each authors also acknowledge Chuck Freed, formally of
speed-VSP bin in the SVEM model were based on the EPA, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments
average PEMS data of test vehicles in the same fleet. greatly helped improve the manuscript. The contents of
However, the FCR and ER for individual vehicles are this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors
subject to different conditions because of factors such and do not necessarily represent official views of the
as different manufacturers, maintenance status, and sponsors.
Volume 60 December 2010 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1469
Wang and Fu
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16. Jimenez-Palacios, J. Ph.D. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technol-
ogy, Boston, MA, 1999. About the Authors
17. Frey, H.C.; Rouphail, N.M.; Zhai, H.; Parias, T.L.; Goncalves, G.A. Dr. Haikun Wang is now an assistant professor in the
Comparing Real-World Fuel Consumption for Diesel- and Hydrogen-
Fueled Transit Buses and Implication for Emissions; Trans. Res. D. School of the Environment at Nanjing University. He partic-
2007, 12, 281-291. ipated in this project while he was a Ph.D. candidate in the
18. Huai, T.; Durbin, T.D.; Miller, J.W.; Pisano, J.T.; Sauer, C.G.; Rhee, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at
S.H.; Norbeck, J.M. Investigation of NH3 Emissions from New Tech- Tsinghua University. Lixin Fu is a professor in the Depart-
nology Vehicles as a Function of Vehicle Operating Conditions; Envi-
ron. Sci. Technol. 2003, 37, 4841-4847. ment of Environmental Science and Engineering at Tsing-
19. Zhai, H.; Frey, H.C.; Rouphail, N.M. A Vehicle-Specific Power Ap- hua University. Please address correspondence to: Haikun
proach to Speed- and Facility-Specific Emissions Estimates for Diesel Wang, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nan-
Transit Buses; Environ. Sci. Technol. 2008, 42, 7985-7991. jing 210093, People’s Republic of China; phone: ⫹86 25
20. Cadle, S.H.; Ayala, A.; Black, K.N.; Graze, R.R.; Koupal, J.; Minassian,
F.; Murray, H.B.; Natarajan, M.; Tennant, C.J.; Lawson, D.R. Real-
89680533; fax: ⫹86 25 89680533; e-mail: wanghk@nju.
World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Seventeenth Coordinat- edu.cn.
ing Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop; J. Air &
Waste Manage. Assoc. 2008, 58, 3-11; doi: 10.3155/1047-3289.58.1.3.
1470 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Volume 60 December 2010