Lotus in its full bloom; AAP swept

away Punjab

The 2022 Assembly Elections in Manipur, Punjab,

Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa are over. The
results indicated what no one could have anticipated.
Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) ruled the elections in the
states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and
Manipur. What comes as shocking news to everyone
is that Aam Aadmi Party bagged Punjab.
It is not easy to win the elections in UP
consecutively as no one was able to do it in the past
three decades. But BJP proved everyone wrong by
not only winning but also with more than majority
votes (255/403). People are more satisfied with the
central government than they are with the State
governments in the four states. As it is said, it is the
“Modi magic” working. The beneficiaries of free
ration scheme, direct benefit transfers and Ujjwala
scheme casted their votes in favour of the ruling
government. The welfare schemes launched by the
centre and state governments helped BJP to win the
favour of the people. The women’s vote in Uttar
Pradesh has clearly emerged as a crucial determining
factor behind BJP’s comfortable victory. Had it not
been for them the BJP may not have won as many
seats as it did. It had the full support of the rural
women, who are the important beneficiaries of the
women-centric schemes such as the free rations.
Some interesting trends noticed in this election were
that women turned out more than men particularly
rural women. Secondly, they emerged as more
‘independent voters’ compared to 2017.In this
election only 32% women considered someone
else’s advice before voting whereas in 2017 47%
did. In 2022 UP elections, two major parties (BJP
and SP) were seen sharing 95% of the seats. It was
clearly a bipolar contest. The constituency saw a
religious polarisation among the voters. If the vote
share of the Hindu community voters is taken into
account, BJP secured a little over half of the votes
(54%) and the Samajwadi Party polled one fourth of
the votes (26%). Among the 20% Muslim votes,
79% voted for SP while 8% voted for BJP.
Aam Aadmi Party stunned everyone with its win in
Punjab. The voters in the state, dissatisfied with the
central as well as the state governments marked a
deviation from the trend. The average voters in the
past five Assembly elections voted for the Congress
or the Akali Dal-BJP alliance. But in this election
Congress could not combat. People rejected
Congress because of the intense internal wranglings
within the Punjab Congress. Navjot Singh Siddu
presented a stiff opposition to Charanjit Singh
Channi (after the ouster of Captain Amrinder Singh).
Rural Sikh votes remained elusive for the Congress,
mainly because of the party’s failure to bring relief
to farmers. AAP may have gained these votes as its
government in Delhi was seen helping the protesting
farmers. The previous governments failed to handle
the core issues of the state. The problems such as
the synthetic drugs ruining the youth, failing
education system, small and medium-scale
enterprises relocating to the better governed
neighbouring states still haunt the state. These
burning social and economic issues may have
influenced voters to consider voting for AAP.
However, the massive scale of AAP’s victory might
be more a yearning for change and hope that the
AAP leadership would be the right party to cleanse
the system.