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Loss Systems and Delay Systems 28883 0
Loss Systems and Delay Systems 28883 0
Loss Systems and Delay Systems 28883 0
λ 0 λ 1 ...... λ k− 1
Consequently, P(k) = P(0), k = 1, 2, 3, ...... ...(8.46)
µ 1 µ 2 ...... µ k
The probability P(0) can be determined by the equation (8.44) as
L OP −1
P(0) = M1 + ∑
∞
λ 0 λ 1 ...... λ k− 1
MN k= 1
µ 1 µ 2 ...... µ k PQ ...(8.47)
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Traffic Engineering 195
Erlang determined the GOS of loss systems having N trunks, with offered traffic A,
with the following assumptions. (a) Pure chance traffic (b) Statistical equilibrium (c) Full
availablity and (d) Calls which encounter congestion are lost. The first two are explained in
previous section. A system with a collection of lines is said to be a fully-accessible system, if all
the lines are equally accessible to all in arriving calls. For example, the trunk lines for inter
office calls are fully accessible lines. The lost call assumption implies that any attempted call
which encounters congestion is immediately cleared from the system. In such a case, the user
may try again and it may cause more traffic during busy hour.
The Erlang loss system may be defined by the following specifications.
1. The arrival process of calls is assumed to be Poisson with a rate of λ calls per hour.
2. The holding times are assumed to be mutually independent and identically distrib-
uted random variables following an exponential distribution with 1/µ seconds.
3. Calls are served in the order of arrival.
There are three models of loss systems. They are :
1. Lost calls cleared (LCC)
2. Lost calls returned (LCR)
3. Lost calls held (LCH)
All the three models are described in this section.
=S
Rkµ, k = 0, 1, ...... N
µk
T0, k > N ...(8.49)
λ 0 λ 1 ...... λ k− 1
From 8.46, P(k) = P(0), k = 1, 2, 3
µ 1 µ 2 ...... µ k
Substituting equation (8.48 and 8.49) in the above equation, we get
1 λFG IJ k
P(k) =
k! µH K P(0), k = 1, 2, 3, ...... N ...(8.50)
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196 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
1
P(0) = N ...(8.52)
Ak
∑ k!
k=0
H k ! JK
k=0
where A = λ/µ .
This result is variously referred to as Erlang’s formula of the first kind, the Erlangs-
B formula or Erlangs loss formula.
Equation 8.54 specifies the probability of blocking for a system with random arrivals
from an infinite source and arbitrary holding time ditributions. The Erlang B formula gives
the time congestion of the system and relates the probability of blocking to the offered traffic
and the number of trunk lines.
Values from B(N, A) obtained from equation 8.54, have been plotted against the offered
traffic ‘A’ erlangs for different values of the number of N lines in Fig. 8.6.
In design problems, it is necessary to find the number of trunk lines needed for a given
offered traffic and a specified grade of service. The offered load generated by a Poisson input
process with a rate λ calls per hour may be defined as
A= z
0
∞
λt dH(t) = λh
where λt = average number of increasing calls at fixed time internal
...(8.55)
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Traffic Engineering 197
1
1
B 3
5
10 13 17
0.1
20
25
0.01 29
30
0.001
5 10 15 20
Erlengs
0.9
–1
0.8 0
P (Output channel utilization)
B =1
0.7 –2
0
0.6 =1 –3
B
0
0.5 =1 –5
B
0
0.4 =1 –7
0
B
=1
B
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 10 100 1000
N (Number of channels)
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198 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
In designing a telephone system, it is necessary to ensure that the system will operate
satisfactorily under the moderate overload condition.
Example 8.6. Consider a trunk group with an offered load 4.5 erlangs and a blocking
probability of 0.01. If the offered traffic increased to 13 erlangs, to keep same blocking probability,
find the number of trunks needed. Also calculate the trunk occupancies.
Sol. Given data : A = 4.5, B = 0.01
From the Fig. 8.6 or from the Appendix B,
No. of trunks = 10
For the increase in load of 13 erlangs, from the figure 8.6
No. of trunks required = 21 for same B = 0.01 required
Hence B(10, 4.5) = B(20, 13) = 0.01
The trunk occupancies calculated as
A ′ A(1 − B(N , A))
ρ= =
N N
for N = 10, A = 4.5
4.5(1 − 0.01)
ρ= = 0.4455
10
13(1 − 0.01)
for N = 21, A = 13 ρ= = 0.613
21
Thus, the group of 20 trunks is more efficient than the group of 10 trunks.
Example 8.7. A group of 7 trunks is offered 4E of traffic, find (a) the grade of service (b)
the probability that only one trunk is busy (c) the probability that only one trunk is free and (d)
the probability that at least one trunk is free.
Sol. Given data : N = 7, A = 4E
From equation 8.54,
47
(a) B(7, 4) =
LM
7! 1+
4 4 2 43 4 4 4 5 46 47
+ + + + + +
OP
N 1 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! Q
16384
=
5040 [1 + 4 + 8 + 21.3 + 10.6 + 8.5 + 5.7 + 3.25]
B = 0.052 = GOS.
(b) The probability of only one trunk is busy
Ak / k!
P(k) = N
∑ ( A k / k !)
k=0
4 / 1!
For k = 1 P(1) = = 0.064
62.35
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Traffic Engineering 199
(c) The probability that only one trunk is free
46 / 6 ! 5.68
P(6) = = = 0.0912
62.35 62.35
(d) The probability that at least one trunk is free
P(k < 7) = 1 – P(7) = 1 – B = 1 – 0.052 = 0.948.
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200 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
(a) For A = 7E, N = 10, From the table (Appendix B) or from Fig. 8.6, the blocking
probability B = 0.079 or approximately 8%.
If the number of server increased to 13, for the same traffic of A = 7E, the blocking
probability is B = 0.02 or approximately 2%.
The difference is shown in Fig. 8.8.
B
1
5 13
10
0.1
20
25
0.01
0.001
5 7E 10 15 20
Erlangs
(b) With lost call returned analysis, for the given N = 10, A = 7, the blocking probability
is 0.079
λh
We know A =
T
where h is average holding time assumed as 3 minutes
T is duration of the observation (normally 60 minutes).
AT 7 × 60
Hence, λ = arrival rate = = = 140
h 3
λ 140
From eqaution 8.59, λ′ = = = 152
1 − B 1 − 0.079
λ′ h 152 × 3
For λ′ = 152, A′ = = = 7.6E
T 60
Thus, the total traffic load including retries is approximately 7.6E. The corresponding
B = 0.1 or 10%.
Similarly, the blocking probabilities for some more iterations are tabulated in table 8.2.
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Traffic Engineering 201
Table 8.2. LCR analysis for example 8.7
AT λ λ′ h
Iteration B λ= λ′ = A′ =
h 1− B T
(For N = 10) (From table)
If the number of circuits in the trunk group increased to 13, the blocking probability is
0.02 or 2%. If the similar iteration procedure as in table 8.2 is made, the difference in blocking
probability can be identified. Fig. 8.9 shows the blocking probability of LCR with LCC.
B 1
5 10
0.1
20
25
0.01
0.001
5 10 15 20
Erlangs
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202 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
LCH systems generally arise in real time applications in which the sources are
continuously in need of service, whether or not the facilities are available. Normally, telephone
network does not operate in a lost call held manner. The LCH analysis produces a conservative
design that helps account for retries and day to day variations in the busy horn calling
intensities. A TASI system concentrates some number of voice sources onto a smaller number
of transmission channels. A source receives service only when it is active. If a source becomes
active when all channels are busy, it is blocked and speech clipping occurs. Each speech segment
starts and stops independently of whether it is served or not. Digital circuit multiplication
(DCM) systems in contrast with original TASI, can delay speech for a small amount of time,
when necessary to minimize the clipping.
LCH are easily analysed to determine the probability of the total number of calls in the
system at any one time. The number of active calls in the system at any time is identical to the
number of active sources in a system capable of carrying all traffic as it arises. Thus the
distribution of the number in the system is the poisson distribution. The poisson distribution
given as
µ x −µ
P(x) =e .
x!
The probability that k sources requesting service are being blocked is simply the
probability that k + N sources are active when N is the number of servers.
Offered load
A N exponential
A′
lines, each
Poisson with rate µ Carried load
offered load Queue
with rate λ
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Traffic Engineering 203
The basic purpose of the investigation of delay system is to determine the probability
distribution of waiting times. From this, the average waiting time W as random variable can
be easily determined. The waiting times are dependent on the following factors :
1. Number of sources
2. Number of servers
3. Intensity and probabilistic nature of the offered traffic
4. Distribution of service times
5. Service discipline of the queue.
In a delay system, there may be a finite number of sources in a physical sense but an
infinite number of sources in an operational sense because each source may have an arbitrary
number of requests outstanding. If the offered traffic intensity is less than the servers, no
statistical limit exists on the arrival of calls in a short period of time. In practice, only finite
queue can be realised. There are two service time distributions. They are constant service
times and exponential service times. With constant service times, the service time is
deterministic and with exponential, it is random. The service discipline of the que involves two
important factors.
1. Waiting calls are selected on of first-come, first served (FCFS) or first-in-first-out
(FIFO) service.
2. The second aspect of the service discipline is the length of the queue. Under heavy
loads, blocking occurs. The blocking probability or delay probability in the system is based on
the queue size in comparison with number of effective sources.
We can model the Erlang delay system by the birth and death process with the following
birth and death rates respectively.
R| 1 F λ I k
|| k ! GH µ JK P(0) 0 ≤ k ≤ S
we set P(k) = S F I k
|| GH µλ JK
|T N ! N P(0) k ≥ N.
k− N
R| A P(0) 0 ≤ k ≤ S
k
As A =
λ
, we get P(k) = S
| k! ...(8.62)
µ || A P(0); k > N.
k
TN ! N
k− N
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204 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
∑ FGH N IJK
N−1 ∞ k
1 A k NN A
P (0)
= ∑ k!
+
N!
k=0 k= N
N LF A I F A I + FG A IJ + ......OP
N−1 N N+1 N+2
MG J +G J
k N
A
= ∑ k!
+
N ! MNH N K H NK H NK PQ
k=0
N F AI L A F AI O
N−1 N 2
G J M + G J + ......P
k N
A
= ∑ k!
+
N ! H N K MN
1+
N H NK PQ
k=0
N−1
∑
A k
A L
M
N
1 OP = ∑ A + LM A + A FG A IJ OP
N−1 k N N
N ! H N − A KQ
= +
k=0
k! N ! N1 − A / N Q k! N N !
k=0
A F A I
N k N
1
P (0)
= ∑
k=0
A
k!
+ G J
N ! H N − AK
1
P(0) =
∑
N
A k
AN FG A IJ ...(8.63)
k=0
k!
+
N! H N − AK
We know (from 8.51)
Ak
P(k) = P(0), k = 1, 2, ......, N ...(8.64)
k!
Now, the probability of waiting (the probability of finding all lines occupied) is equal to
P(W > 0) = C(N, A) ...(8.65)
From 8.63 and 8.64
AN / N !
C(N, A) =
∑
N
FG A IJ
Ak AN
...(8.66)
k=0
k!
+
H N − AK
N!
∑ k ! AN ! FGH N A− A IJK
N k
A N
1 k=0
= +
C(N, A) AN AN
!
N! N!
1 1 A
= + .
C(N, A) B N − A
BN
Prob. (delay) = P(> 0) C(N, A) = ...(8.67)
N − A (1 − B)
where B = Blocking probability for a LCC system
N = Number of servers
A = Offered load (Erlangs)
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Traffic Engineering 205
Equation 8.66 and 8.67 are referred as Erlang’s second formula, Erlang’s delay
formula or Erlang’s C formula.
For single server systems (N = 1), the probability of delay reduces to ρ, which is simply
the output utilization or traffic carried by the server. Thus the probability of delay for a single
server system is also.
The distribution of waiting times for random arrivals, random service times, and a FIFO
service discipline is
(P > t) = P(> 0) e–(N–A)t/h ...(8.68)
where P(> 0) = probability of delay (equation 8.67)
h = average service time of negative exponential service time distribution.
By integrating equation 8.68, the average waiting time for all arrivals can be determined
as
C(N, A) h
W(t)avg. = ...(8.69)
N−A
W(t)avg. is the expected delay for all arrivals. The average delay of only those arrivals that get
delayed is commonly denoted as
h
TW = ...(8.70)
N−A
Example 8.9. A message switching network is to be designed for 90% utilization of its
transmission link. Assuming exponentially distributed message lengths and an arrivals rate of
10 messages per min. What is the average waiting time and what is the probability that the
waiting time exceeds 3 minutes ?
Given data : ρ = 90% = 0.9
λ = 10 messages/minute.
Sol. Assuming single channel, N = 1
For N = 1, prob (delay) = P(> 0) = ρ = 0.9. Also A = ρ = 0.9.
Prob. (delay) 0.9
The average service time h= = = 0.09
λ 10
P(> 0) h 0.9 × 0.09
Average waiting time W(t)avg = = = 0.81 min.
N−A 1 − 0.9
Prob. of the waiting time exceeding 3 minutes
= P(> 5) = P(> 0) e–(N–A)t/h = 0.9 × e–(1–0.09)3/0.09 = 0.032.
Thus 3.2% of the message experience queing delay of more than 3 minutes.
Example 8.10. A PBX has 4 operators and receives 300 calls during a busy hour. The
average holding time is 36 seconds. Assume that call arrivals are poisonian and service time is
negative exponential distribution. Calculate (a) the percentage of calls on queue (b) average
delay (c) percentage of calls delayed for more than 45 seconds, 30 seconds and 20 sec.
Given data : N = 3, n = 300 calls, h = 36 sec.
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206 Telecommunication Switching and Networks
nh 300 × 36
Sol. A= = = 3 Erlangs.
T 3600
(a) From equation (8.63, 8.64 and 8.67), we get
P(0) = 0.038
B = 0.0285
C(4, 3) = 0.105
i.e. 10.5% of calls have delay on answer.
(b) Average delay of a call
C(N, A) h
W(t)avg. = = 3.78 seconds.
N−A
(c) Percentage of calls delayed for more than 45 seconds
P(t ≥ 45) = C(N, A) e–(N–A)t/h = 0.03
that is 3% calls delayed for more than 45 sec
P(t ≥ 30) = 0.045
that is 4.5% calls delayed for more than 30 sec
P(t ≥ 20) = 0.06
that is 6% calls delayed for more than 20 sec.
and
R|kµ, 0 ≤ k < N
µk = Ssµ, N ≤ k ≤ n ...(8.72)
|T0, k > n
where N = number of channels
n = number of sources
Substituting 8.71 and 8.72 in 8.46, we get
R| A P(0)
k
0≤k<N
P(k) = S
| k! ...(8.73)
|| A k
P(0) N ≤ k ≤ n
TN ! N k− N
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Traffic Engineering 207
Under normalised condition,
N N−1 n
Ak Ak
∑
k=0
P(k) = 1 or ∑ k!
P(0) + ∑ N ! N k− N
P (0) = 1
k=0 k=N
1
N −1
∑
Ak AN FG N IJ LM1 − FG A IJ n−N+1 OP
P(0)
=
k=0
k!
+
N! H N − A K MN H N K PQ
...(8.74)
ACRONYMS
B-D — Birth and Death process
CCS — Cent call seconds
CM — Call minutes
CS — Call seconds
E — Erlangs
FCFS — First come first served
FIFO — First in first out
GOS — Grade of service
LCC — Lost calls cleared
LCH — Lost calls held
LCR — Lost calls returned
RELATED WEBSITES
http://personal.telefonica.terra.es/web/vr
http://pass.maths.org.uk/issue 2/erlang
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