Energy Challenge after Historic Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan

Shinji FUJINO Head of Country Studies Division International Energy Agency(IEA)

Japan Faces an Unprecedented Challenge

Tsunamis 14 meters or higher Earthquakes: M - 9.0 quake (March 11) M - 7 class 5 times M - 6 class 63 times M - 5 class 335 times

Faces

TOKYO

Fukushima Dai-ichi

Nuclear Reactors near Epicenter of the Earthquake 4 Nuclear Power Stations with 14 Units
automatic shut down Onagawa Unit 1 524 MW, 1984Unit 2 825 MW, 1995Unit 3 825 MW, 2002Fukushima Dai-ichi Unit 1 460 MW, 1971Unit 2 784 MW, 1974Unit 3 784 MW, 1976Unit 4 784 MW, 1978Unit 5 784 MW, 1978Unit 6 1,100 MW, 1979Fukushima Dai-ni Unit 1 1,100 MW, 1982Unit 2 1,100 MW, 1984Unit 3 1,100 MW, 1985Unit 4 1,100 MW, 1987Tokai Dai-ni Unit 1 1,100 MW, 1978cold shut down

Periodical inspection

Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station

Cause of the Damage Grid Line Loss of Off-site Power due to the Earthquake

Reactor Building Tsunami (estimated 14m)

Turbine Building
Elevation: about 10m

About 20M

About 40M

Diesel Generator

5.4 ~5.7m Seawater level Seawater Pump

Diesel Generator Inoperable due to the Tsunami All Motion Operated Pumps including ECCS became Inoperable

LOST GENERATION
14 March 2011

Thermal
(in MW)

Nuclear
LNG Oil Coal Total

Total

TEPCO JAPC Tohoku EPCO Total

6 428 1 100

1 000 -

5 150 -

1 000 -

7 150 -

13 578 1 100

2 174 9 702
(9.7GW)

446 1 446

850 6 000

1 000 2 000

2 296 9 446
(9.4GW)

4 470 19 148
(19.1GW)

Power Generation and Transmission

OECD/IEA 2011

Transmission Interconnectors

OECD/IEA 2011

Impact on Energy Supply/Demand in Japan

Power Supply/Demand Plan

Announced by Government of Japan (8 April) Measures to respond to power shortage in this summer - Estimated peak demand in TEPCO region 55GW - Available supply capacity by TEPCO 45GW

Demand Side Measures

Peak demand cut: 10GW in TEPCO region
Large consumers (> 500kW): 25% (mandatory) Further improving efficiency in manufacturing process Installing more energy efficient machines/equipments Shifting/shortening working time Shifting/extending summer holidays etc

Smaller Businesses (< 500kW): 20% (voluntary measures) Decreasing cooling Reducing lighting Reducing IT equipment Temperature appropriate clothing etc Households: 15 20 % (Voluntary measures) Decreasing cooling Reducing stand-by power Reducing lighting Installing more efficient appliances etc

Supply Side Measures

By summer 2011 Additional capacity: 5GW in TEPCO region After summer 2011 Continue to restore damaged thermal capacities Additional new thermal capacities Accelerate existing plans Smaller size gas turbines Strengthen interregional connections Renewable power capacity Low carbon technology R&D etc.

25 Energy Efficiency Recommendations How did implementation compare across member countries in 2009 ?

OECD/IEA 2011

Energy Intensity in Japan and in Other Selected IEA Member Countries

0.45 toe per thousand USD of GDP at 2000 prices and purchase power parities Australia Canada 0.4 France Germany Italy 0.3 Japan United Kingdom 0.25 United States IEA Total 0.2

0.35

0.15

0.1

0.05

0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

OECD/IEA 2011

Energy Supply and Electricity Generation, 2009

Other Hydro renewable 2% 1% Nuclear 15% Coal 22% Hydro 7% Other renewable 3% Coal 27%

Gas 17%

Nuclear 27%

Oil 9% Gas 27%

Oil 43%

Total Primary Energy Supply 472 Mtoe

Total Electricity Generation 1041 TWh

OECD/IEA 2011

IEA Member Countries LNG Imports

OECD/IEA 2011

LNG Imports by Japan

2000

Source: IEA

2010

In 2000, LNG imported from 8 countries but now from 15 countries-twice as diversified in search for better deals New Exporters: Russia, Nigeria, Egypt
OECD/IEA 2011

Renewable Energy Percentage of Total Primary Energy Supply, 2009

50%

Biofuels and waste

40%

Solar Geothermal Wind

30%

20%

Hydro
10%

0%

OECD/IEA 2011

Energy Plan of Japan

Energy Security Double energy self-sufficiency ratio by 2030 (18% in 2009) Environmental sustainability CO2 emission reduction: 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 Zero emission power generation (nuclear and renewables): 50% by 2020, 70% by 2030 (34% in 2009) - Nuclear: 9 additional units by 2020 14 additional units by 2030 - Renewables: 10% TPES by 2020 (3.5% in 2009)

Information Dissemination by Government of Japan

Tourism
1. http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/en/index.html