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Is the Pandemic Over? Here’s

What the Experts Say
Laurie BudgarUpdated: Mar. 28, 2022

PACIFIC PRESS/GETTY IMAGES

Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, and there's reason

for hope.
It’s been a difficult two years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. And
now, just as we’re starting to sense a possible return to normalcy, many of
us feel blindsided by new events emerging on the world stage. We’re
struggling to find a way to understand the Ukraine-Russia war and figure
out how to help the people of Ukraine, even as we try to save money on
skyrocketing gas prices at home. And yet amid all that, Americans are
wondering: Is the pandemic over—finally?

That’s right: There’s a glimmer of hope that the COVID-19 crisis is

ending. Face mask mandates have been lifted in all 50 states. More than
75 percent of the U.S. population has received at least one vaccination
against the novel coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, and effective treatments are now available. Rates of new
infections, hospitalizations, and deaths have fallen nationwide (but here’s
where you’re most likely to catch the virus), and people are beginning to
resume their public lives.

These encouraging developments have many of us looking to the future

with hope. So is the pandemic over? We posed the question to health
experts to find out where we really stand.

Is the COVID-19 pandemic over?

In a word? “No,” says David Dowdy, MD, faculty expert and epidemiologist
at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “I think it’s risky to
declare the pandemic over when there is always a risk of another wave.”

In fact, the omicron BA.2 variant—sometimes called “stealth omicron”

because its genetic mutations initially made it difficult to detect—is now
spreading rapidly in China, Europe, and parts of the United States. In fact,
this new variant appears to be 50 to 60 percent more transmissible
than omicron, though not more severe, White House chief medical advisor
Anthony Fauci, MD, said in an interview with ABC’s This Week.

Despite BA.2’s high transmission rate, experts are uncertain whether it will
lead to a new spike in U.S. cases. Our existing immunity from vaccinations
and infections from the previous omicron wave may be protective.

Still, the pandemic—defined as the worldwide spread of a disease—isn’t

officially over until the World Health Organization says so.

Just as the WHO declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020, the
international group now meets every three months to assess the situation
and will make an official determination—eventually—as to when the
emergency is over. Given the likelihood of future COVID-19 waves, Dr.
Dowdy and other experts say the next meeting, scheduled for April, is
unlikely to result in such a declaration.

“We are almost certain to see a new variant,” Dr. Dowdy says, though “the
size of the corresponding waves is very difficult to predict.”

Is the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic

over?
Whether the worst of the pandemic is behind you largely depends on who
you are and where you live. In the United States, the answer is yes for
most people.

“It’s hard for people to remember now just how bad things were the first
year of the pandemic. I would say the first year was worse than this last
year has been, and future years are going to get better,” Dr. Dowdy says. “I
think there’s every reason to believe the trend will continue to go in the right
direction.”

Much of this has to do with the immunity we’ve been able to establish. “In
the U.S., the vast majority of people have had at least two exposures to this
virus, either through infection or vaccines,” he says. “There’s reason to
believe that, over time, our bodies are going to learn to deal with this virus.”

What does that mean for us in the long run? Even though we may not be
able to prevent its transmission, we probably can “prevent it from killing us,”
Dr. Dowdy says.
Still, the virus poses a substantial risk in areas of the world that have not
been widely vaccinated, such as sub-Saharan Africa. It also poses a threat
in China, which just saw its first two COVID-19-related deaths since
January 2021. So far, infection rates in China have been minuscule
because, Dr. Dowdy says, the country has maintained very strict lockdown
policies. Plus, he points out, “the vaccine they’ve been using is arguably
less effective.”

And for people who are immunocompromised or otherwise more vulnerable

than average, the threat and consequences of infection persist. For them,
the answer to “is the pandemic over?” will remain a solid “no” for a while
longer. They may even opt to wear masks indoors for some time.

What are signs that a pandemic is

ending?
There’s no clear-cut data point that signals the end of a pandemic,
according to a recent paper published in the medical journal The BMJ.
There won’t be a single, specific day when we can declare the coronavirus
pandemic over. In fact, it will likely only be obvious in hindsight.

Realistically, COVID-19 will gradually transition from pandemic to endemic

status, a situation in which the disease is consistently present in the world
but confined to a particular region, making transmission somewhat
predictable and reducing or eliminating the need for broad societal
interventions.

Other traditional indicators that a pandemic is over include economic and

behavioral measures. When economic activity is no longer markedly
affected by infection rates—for example, supply chain and labor issues are
resolved, travel and tourism resume, and businesses are operating at pre-
pandemic levels—then it’s a safe bet that the pandemic’s end is near. After
all, the coronavirus pandemic has cost the world significantly, and a
reversal of that signifies an ending pandemic.

Similarly, it’s a sign the pandemic is easing when the threat of infection is
so low that individuals no longer adjust their social and economic
behaviors.

“I think we are moving pretty quickly to a point where we can say the
emergency phase of this pandemic is over,” Dr. Dowdy says. “Cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths are getting to a point that is tolerable in our
society. We need to be prepared for the possibility of another wave, but
that doesn’t mean we need to live our lives in fear until that happens.”
There’s another way to look at the potential end of the pandemic: “If we’re
able to make it through a year with no waves, other than during the
wintertime, with other respiratory viral infections, and we’re able to see that
the number of deaths from COVID-19 is similar to other well-known
respiratory infections, like the flu, it would be reasonable at that time to say
we can move on from the pandemic,” he says.

What could a post-coronavirus world look

like?
In ten or 15 years, when today’s small children are teenagers, they may not
even remember the pandemic and will think of this as just another virus,
along with the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (a common infection of the
lungs and respiratory tract), and other coronaviruses, Dr. Dowdy predicts.

Today we’re all wondering, Is the pandemic over? But just as intriguing is
the question of how the past two years will change the way we live, work,
and play in the future. And that future is approaching quickly.

Our post-coronavirus lives will soon take on a pre-pandemic appearance,

with many people returning to offices and schools. “People have realized a
lot of work can be done from home, but there are some tasks for which
being in person, in the office, is more efficient,” he says. “It won’t be the
virtual world we’ve been living in the past two years.”

In addition to office-culture changes, there may be vaccination updates. We

may need booster shots for new variants, though that remains to be seen.
“So far, [existing] vaccines have been effective against most variants that
have come along, but that may change in the future,” Dr. Dowdy says.

As for masks, while most of us would be happy to fling them off

permanently, Dr. Dowdy says it’s possible we may always need them for
public transit and other scenarios where people are tightly crowded. “I hope
that we will be able to think about this from a rational risk-benefit
perspective,” he says.

In other public spaces, we can probably expect a return to normalcy. “I am

hopeful that we will get to a point where we don’t have to bend over
backward, so to speak, to prevent transmission of this virus,” Dr. Dowdy
says.

Sources:
 David Dowdy, MD, faculty expert and epidemiologist at Johns
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
 The BMJ: “The end of the pandemic will not be televised”
 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “COVID Data Tracker
Weekly Review”
 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “COVID Data Tracker”