Lesson 4B, Page 1 Going with the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

T he title of this lesson often

frightens people as it may
seem to be a study in mathe-
matics. Not really; you don’t need
an electronic calculator to be a good
Suit Breaks
As declarer you must know what
to expect regarding the division of
the outstanding cards in a suit. The
Finesse or Suit Break
A common situation for declarer
is having to choose between two
plays—one involving a finesse, and
bridge player. All you need to know most practical cases are listed in the the other involving a suit break. In
are a few “easy numbers” and what following table: most cases all you need to know is
to expect about suit breaks. The rest whether the required suit break is a
is mostly common sense. Cards Suit Breaks favorite. If so, then it has to be better
Missing Most Likely Next Likely than a 50% finesse; you don’t really
care how much better.
Finessing Odds 2 1-1 52% 2-0 48%
Most finessing plays require that 3 2-1 78% 3-0 22% I’ll have
a particular card be located favor- you know I
4 3-1 50% 2-2 41% memorized all
ably, i.e., held by a specific oppo- the percentages.
nent. Assuming the enemy hands 5 3-2 68% 4-1 28%
are unknown, this is clearly a 50-50 Great. Now we
6 4-2 48% 3-3 36% can lose with a
chance — half the time it will suc- little dignity!
7 4-3 62% 5-2 31%
ceed; half the time it will fail.
Sometimes a line of play will de- 8 5-3 47% 4-4 33%
pend on two or more finesses so it 3. 6 ♥ ♠AQ864
is important to know how to figure It is not so important to memorize ♥J942
the chances. If one finesse is a 50- the percentages, but it is crucial to ♦A 6 5
percent chance, then the chance of know which breaks are most likely. ♣4
two finesses both working (or both Here is a neat memory aid: ♠ 10 7 2 ♠KJ95
failing) is simply 50% × 50%. ♥5 N
♥7 3
• An odd number of cards usually ♦ Q J 10 2
W E
♦K 8 4
• Two finesses will both succeed break as evenly as possible. ♣KJ976
S
♣ Q 10 5 3
only 25 percent of the time.
♠3
• An even number of cards usually ♥ A K Q 10 8 6
• At least one of two finesses will do not break evenly, except in ♦9 7 3
succeed 75 percent of the time. the close case of two cards. Lead: ♦ Q ♣ A 8 2
1. 3 NT ♠ A 10 9 2. 3 NT ♠K32 After winning the ♦ A and leading a
♥5 4 ♥AK732 heart to the ace, declarer can be sure of 11
♦A Q 6 5 4 ♦A K 4 tricks — six hearts, three side aces and two
♣J53 ♣A 3 club ruffs. The 12th trick might come from
♠K654 ♠Q873 ♠975 ♠ Q J 10 8 the spade finesse or by attempting to estab-
lish the long spade. Which play is better?
♥QJ82 N
W E
♥ K 10 6 3 ♥ Q 10 9 5 W N E ♥ J 8 4 The spade finesse is clearly a 50-percent
♦J 8 S ♦ K 10 9 ♦ Q 10 5 3 S ♦J 9 chance. Establishing the long spade re-
♣ 10 8 7 ♣4 2 ♣J 6 ♣ Q 10 9 4 quires a 4-3 spade break (62 percent) and
♠J 2 ♠A64 four entries to dummy (three to ruff spades
♥A97 ♥6 and one to reach the last winner). Are the
entries available? Yes, declarer can use the
♦7 3 2 ♦8 7 6 2 ♠ A, ♥ J and two club ruffs in that order.
Lead: ♥ 2 ♣ A K Q 9 6 Lead: ♦ 3 ♣ K 8 7 5 2 The recommended play is actually even
better. Declarer will also succeed against
Declarer has eight top tricks. The lead Declarer must decide whether to estab- 5-2 breaks when the king is doubleton. For
indicates a 4-4 heart division so declarer lish the hearts or the clubs. The club suit math buffs this extra chance can be calcu-
can afford to give up the lead once. The requires a 3-3 break (note the lack of en- lated as 31 percent (the probability of a 5-2
diamond finesse is a 50-percent chance tries to succeed against a 4-2 break); the break) times 2⁄7 (the ratio for the 5-to-2
while the double finesse in spades offers a heart suit requires a 4-3 break. Win the first odds against the king doubleton) or about
75-percent chance — all you need is for trick and lead the ♥ 2. Later you will set 9 percent. This raises the total chance of
West to have either spade honor. up the long heart. establishing a spade trick to 71 percent.
Lesson 4B, Page 2 Going with the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

Multiple Chances Enemy Information Restricted Choice

A particular line of play will often
have more than one chance of suc-
cess. To estimate the total chances,
you need to understand the method
of combining percentages. No, you
won’t need a calculator. What you
need is a logical mind.
Here is an example to illustrate
how to choose the better play when
multiple chances are involved.
4. 6 ♠ ♠4 3
♥ K J 10 5 2
♦K J 5
♣AK5
♠9 2 ♠ 10 5
♥AQ74 N
W E
♥9863
♦ 10 9 7 2 S ♦Q 8
♣ J 10 9 ♣Q8763
♠ AKQJ876
♥—
♦A 6 4 3
Lead: ♣ J ♣ 4 2
Declarer has 11 top tricks, and the 12th
must come from either hearts or diamonds.
Dummy’s heart honors offer a straight 75-
percent play by taking two ruffing finesses
— if East has either the ♥ A or the ♥ Q,
you will succeed. The question is whether
this is better than playing on diamonds.
Looking at the diamond suit in isolation,
you can make an extra trick any time the
finesse works (50 percent). If the finesse
loses, you still succeed if diamonds are 3-3
(36 percent × 50 percent) which comes to
68 percent. This appears to fall short of the
75-percent play in hearts.
But wait! If the diamond finesse loses
and diamonds do not split 3-3, you still
have a chance that the person with the long
diamonds also has the ♥ A — he will be
squeezed. Estimating this to be about 45
percent of the remaining 32 percent, adds
another 14 percent, which brings the total
to 82 percent. Hence, playing on diamonds
is the better play.
Win the ♣ K and lead the ♥ J (just in
case you get a friendly cover) but ruff it and
draw trumps. Next lead a diamond to the
jack and queen. Win the club return, ruff a
heart and lead all your trumps. West is
squeezed in the red suits.
The basic odds and percentages
assume that nothing is known about
the enemy hands. In many cases
there will be enemy bidding to re-
veal suit lengths and indicate the
likely location of high cards. This
information takes priority over all
the normal percentages.
• If one opponent has doubled or
bid (excluding weak bids), he is
more likely to have any missing
ace or king.
The probabilities of suit breaks in
one suit are affected by the layout
of another suit (if known).
•
If an opponent is shorter in one
suit, he is likely to be longer in
another; and vice versa.
• The opponent with the greater
length in a suit is more likely to
hold a specific card in that suit.
5. 4 ♥
♠A
♥A973
♦J 8 7 5
♣AKJ2
♠ KQ98764 ♠532
♥2 N
W E
♥ Q 10 4
♦ Q 10 6 S ♦A K 9
♣4 3 ♣ Q 10 9 5
♠ J 10
♥KJ865
♦4 3 2
Lead: ♠ K ♣ 8 7 6
West North East South
3♠ Dbl Pass 4♥
The normal play with nine cards missing
the queen is to play for the drop, but de-
clarer takes exception because of West’s
preempt. West is known to have extreme
length in spades so the chance of West
having short hearts is increased. The cor-
rect play in trumps is to win the ace then
finesse against East. Next declarer should
lead diamonds because if that suit breaks
3-3, he won’t need the club finesse.
A principle in probability theory
states that, if a card played by an
opponent may have been played by
choice or necessity, it is more likely
to have been played by necessity.
That is, the opponent’s choice of
plays is more likely to be restricted
than a free selection.
Are you confused? Most people
are, but the principle has proved to
be sound and it is easy to apply at
the bridge table. Here is how:
• If you are missing two touching
cards and an opponent drops one
of them when you lead the suit,
the odds are he does not have the
other card.
6. 4 ♠ ♠A 4
♥K83
♦A Q 6 3
♣AQ74
♠ K 10 ♠J53
♥ Q J 10 6 4 W E ♥ A 9 7
N
♦ 10 8 S ♦J 9 5 4
♣8652 ♣ K 10 3
♠Q98762
♥5 2
♦K 7 2
Lead: ♥ Q ♣ J 9
You ruff the third round of hearts and
play a spade to North’s ace. You intended
to lead a spade toward the queen, but the
fall of West’s 10 creates the option to fi-
nesse the nine. Which play is better?
You were missing touching cards (jack
and 10) so when West plays one of them
the rule of restricted choice suggests that
he is less likely to have the other. There-
fore, it is better to play East for the jack and
finesse the nine.
This hand has another interesting point.
Suppose West wins the ♠ K and shifts to a
club. Should you take the finesse? Or go
up with the ace and hope for a 3-3 diamond
break? The finesse (50%) seems better, but
this overlooks an extra chance. Refusing
the finesse also gains when the player with
long diamonds has the ♣ K — a squeeze
play that works as the cards lie.
Exercise 4B29 What’s the Chance? by Richard Pavlicek

As declarer, with adequate entries to either hand, answer each question about the spade suit in
the contract shown. Played cards, if any, are underlined (lead is bold underlined).

1. 3 NT 43 5. 3 NT K6 9. 4 ♠ 32
N N N
W E 6 W E W E
S S S

A K J 10 A5432 A987654

What is your % chance What is your % chance What is your % chance

to win four tricks? 50 to win four tricks? 36 to win six tricks? 41

Will you win ace first? No at least three tricks? 84 at least five tricks? 91

2. 3 NT K 10 9 6. 3 NT AQ432 10. 4 ♠ K 10 8 7 6
N N N
5 W E 7 W E W E
S S S

432 5 Q5432

What is your % chance What is your % chance What is your % chance

to win one trick? 75 to win three tricks? 31 to win four tricks? 89

Will you finesse 10-9? Yes at least two tricks? 81 Which card do you lead? 6

3. 3 NT J3 7. 3 NT Q32 11. 4 ♠ A32

N N N
W E W E W E 8
S S S

AK42 A654 K 10 7 6 5 4

What is your % chance What is your % chance Will you finesse 10 if

to win three tricks? 50 to win three tricks? 18 West drops jack? Yes

Which card do you lead? 2 at least two tricks? 68 if West drops queen? Yes

4. 3 NT 10 9 8. 3 NT Q9854 12. 4 ♠ A2
N N N
W E 6 W E 10 W E 5
S S S

AK5432 A32 KQ9843

What is your % chance Will you finesse nine if Could West have 3 cards
to win six tricks? 0 East drops 10? Yes when his 10 drops? Yes

to win five tricks? 68 if East drops jack? Yes Will you finesse nine? No
Exercise 4B41 Going With the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

A roll of the dice, like a deal of the cards, is unpredictable… but the smart
money is on seven. See how well you can predict your chances on these six
deals, and choose the best play. Do not be concerned about overtricks.

1. 3 NT ♠QJ9 3. 3 NT ♠A 5. 6 NT ♠743
♥QJ ♥J542 ♥J2
♦AK8765 ♦ 10 4 2 ♦AK52
♣62 ♣K8763 ♣KQ43
N N N
Lead: ♥ 7 W E East plays ♥ 6 Lead: ♠ 10 W E Lead: ♦ 10 W E
S S S

♠ A 10 8 6 ♠K64 ♠ A K 10
♥A2 ♥AK3 ♥K93
♦43 ♦AJ98 ♦QJ
♣AJ843 ♣A42 ♣ A J 10 8 7

What is your chance (%) to
win four spade tricks? 50%
…five diamond tricks?
…four club tricks?
After winning the ♥ J,
which play is best?
A. Cash the ♦ A-K
B. Duck a diamond
C. Lead the ♠ Q and let it ride
What is your chance to win What is your chance to win
four club tricks? 68% three spade tricks? 25%
68% …three diamond tricks? 75% …that East has the ♥ Q? 50%
9% …four heart tricks? Zero …that East has the ♥ A? 50%
After winning the ♠ A, After winning the ♦ Q and
B which play is best? C ♣ K, which play is best? C
A. Duck a club A. Lead the ♠ 3 and finesse the 10
B. Lead the ♦ 10 and let it ride B. Lead the ♥ J and let it ride
C. Lead the ♦ 2 and finesse the jack C. Lead the ♥ 2 to your king

2. 5 ♦ ♠ 10 7 3 4. 4 ♠ ♠8 6. 4 ♠ ♠KJ753
♥43 ♥KJ52 ♥9863
♦A7653 ♦76532 ♦72
♣Q62 ♣ K 10 9 ♣A8
N Lead: ♦ Q N N
Lead: ♠ 4 W E W E Lead: ♥ J W E
S S S

♠A ♠ AK97643 ♠ A Q 10 8 2
♥AKJ6 ♥A63 ♥A2
♦ K J 10 9 8 ♦A ♦ K J 10
♣743 ♣43 ♣976
What is your chance that What is your chance to win What is your chance to win
diamonds break 2-1? 78% one club trick? 75% two diamond tricks? 50%
…that hearts break 4-3? 62% …three heart tricks? 68% What is the best play if
East opened 1 ♥? B
…that East has the ♥ Q? 50% What is the best play if A. Lead the ♦ 2 to your jack
trumps break 3-2? A B. Lead the ♦ 2 to your king
After drawing trumps, A. Lead the ♣ 3 to the nine C. Win the ♣ A and lead the ♣ 8
which play is best? B B. Lead the ♣ 3 to the king
A. Lead up to the ♣ Q C. Win ♥ A then finesse the jack …if West opened 1 ♥? A
B. Finesse the ♥ J
C. Try to ruff out the ♥ Q …if trumps break 4-1? C …if the contract were 5 ♠? A
Exercise 4B41 Notes Going With the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

1. 3 NT ♠QJ9 3. 3 NT ♠A 5. 6 NT ♠743
♥QJ ♥J542 ♥J2
♦AK8765 ♦ 10 4 2 ♦AK52
♣62 ♣K8763 ♣KQ43
♠K753 ♠42 ♠ Q 10 9 3 ♠J8752 ♠J952 ♠Q86
♥ K 10 8 7 4 W N E ♥ 9 6 5 3 ♥ 10 8 6 N
W E
♥Q97 ♥ Q 10 5 N
W E
♥A8764
♦J 9 S ♦ Q 10 2 ♦K 5 S ♦Q 7 6 3 ♦ 10 9 8 7 S ♦6 4 3
♣Q7 ♣ K 10 9 5 ♣ Q 10 9 5 ♣J ♣65 ♣92
♠ A 10 8 6 ♠K64 ♠ A K 10
♥A2 ♥AK3 ♥K93
♦43 ♦AJ98 ♦QJ
Lead: ♥ 7 ♣ A J 8 4 3 Lead: ♠ 10 ♣ A 4 2 Lead: ♦ 10 ♣ A J 10 8 7
Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
1. W ♥7 J 6 2 1. W ♠ 10 A 8 4 1. W ♦ 10 2 3 Q
2. N ♦ 5! Q 3 9 2. N ♦ 2! 3 J K 2. S ♣7 5 K 2
3. E ♥3 A 4 Q 3. W ♠ 3 ♣ 3 7! 6 3. N ♥ 2! 4 K! 5
4. S ♦4 J K 2 4. E ♠2 K Q! ♣ 6 Cash 9 more winners Made 6
Cash 6 more winners Made 3 5. S ♣2 10 K J
6. N ♦ 10! 6 8 5 Playing on spades may seem more com-
Ducking a diamond first (to keep an entry Cash 5 more winners Made 3 fortable, but that’s a long shot (only 25
to dummy) allows you to succeed when percent to find the Q-J onside). It is twice
diamonds break 3-2 (about 68 percent), or Lacking entries, you must choose between as good to play East for one card, the ♥ A.
failing that, when the spade finesse works. a 3-2 club break (68 percent) or a repeated Note that there is no other viable finesse in
If you took the spade finesse first, you diamond finesse (75 percent). Note the key hearts, since you lack the 10.
would have only one chance. play of leading the ♦ 2 first, so the 10 can
be led later to hold the lead in dummy.

6. 4 ♠ ♠KJ753
4. 4 ♠ ♠8 ♥9863
2. 5 ♦ ♠ 10 7 3 ♥KJ52 ♦72
♥43 ♦76532 ♣A8
♦A7653 ♣ K 10 9 ♠96 ♠4
♣Q62 ♠ Q 10 5 ♠J2 ♥J7 N
♥ K Q 10 5 4
♠J654 ♠KQ982 ♥ 10 8 N
♥Q974 ♦Q 8 6 5 4
W E
S ♦A 9 3
♥ 10 8 5 N
W E
♥Q972 ♦ Q J 10 4
W E
S ♦K 9 8 ♣ Q 10 5 2 ♣KJ43
♦Q 4 S ♦2 ♣Q752 ♣AJ86 ♠ A Q 10 8 2
♣K985 ♣ A J 10 ♠ AK97643 ♥A2
♠A ♥A63 ♦ K J 10
♥AKJ6 ♦A Lead: ♥ J ♣ 9 7 6
♦ K J 10 9 8 Lead: ♦ Q ♣43
Lead: ♠ 4 ♣ 7 4 3 Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th
Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th 1. W ♥J 3 4 A
Trick Lead 2nd 3rd 4th 1. W ♦Q 2 9 A 2. S ♠A 6 3 4
1. W ♠4 3 Q A 2. S ♠K 5 8 2 3. S ♠2 9 K ♥5
2. S ♦K 4 3 2 3. S ♠ A 10 ♦ 3 J 4. N ♦2 3 K! 4
3. S ♥A 5 3 2 4. S ♣3 2 9! J Lose 3 tricks Made 4
4. S ♦J Q A ♠2 Lose 2 more tricks Made 4
5. N ♥4 7 J! 8 If you misguess diamonds you will be de-
Lose 2 tricks Made 5 The best chance is to hope West has any of feated with a club shift, so you should
three critical cards: the ♣ J, ♣ Q or ♥ Q. clearly play the person who bid (East in the
To succeed you will need the ♥ J to be a If instead trumps were 4-1 you would al- above layout) for the ♦ A. If the contract
winner so that a club can be discarded from ways need the ♥ Q onside, so you should were 5 ♠, you should always finesse the
dummy. The 50% finesse is a better chance take that finesse first — then you wouldn’t ♦ J because your only chance for 11 tricks
than trying to ruff out the ♥ Q. need the ♣ A onside if hearts were 3-3. is to find East with the ♦ Q.
Exercise 4B53 Restricted Choice by Richard Pavlicek

As declarer, with adequate entries to either hand, answer each question about the spade suit in
the contract shown. Played cards, if any, are underlined (lead is bold underlined).

1. 3 NT K 10 9 5. 3 NT Q932 9. 4 ♠ A32
N N N
4 W E J K W E 6 10 W E 6
S S S

7632 AJ84 Q9854

Will you next lead to the Will you next cash the Will you next lead to the
king or the 10? 10 ace or the queen? A queen or the nine? 9

2. 3 NT QJ9 6. 3 NT 2 10. 4 ♠ 5432

N N N
5 W E K K W E 9 K W E 6
S S S

8732 QJ8763 A Q 10 9 8

Will you next lead to the Will you next lead the Will you next lead to the
queen or the nine? Q queen or the eight? Q ace or the 10? A

3. 3 NT J543 7. 3 NT AJ543 11. 4 ♠ A7

N N N
7 W E K 7 W E 10 J W E 2
S S S

Q92 K62 KQ9654

Will you next lead to the Will you next lead to the Could West logically
queen or the nine? 9 ace or the jack? J hold three cards? Yes

Would you play the same Would you play the same Will you next lead to the
if East won the ace? Yes if the 10 did not drop? Yes king or the nine? K

4. 3 NT A 10 2 8. 3 NT K2 12. 4 ♠ A54
N N N
5 W E J J W E 3 Q W E 2
S S S

K943 A9876 K 10 8 6 3

You next win the ace and You need 4 tricks. Will Will you next lead to the
lead the two. Will you you next lead to the ace king, or finesse the 10 or
play the king or nine? K or the nine? A eight? 8
Study 4B73, Page 1
T he subject of probability in
bridge can be confusing to
those who are not mathema-
ticians. The purpose of this study is
to clear up a few of the misconcep-
tions or paradoxes that continue to
confuse bridge players.
Restricted Choice
There are many paradoxical cases
related to the principle of restricted
choice (or Bayes theorem if you’re
a mathematician). Consider the fol-
lowing two card combinations:
1. A J 10 7 6
5432
Proper play is to finesse the jack, then
finesse the 10.
2. A Q 10 7 6
5432
Proper play (for maximum) is to finesse
the queen, then play the ace.
See the paradox? Each holding
has the same number of cards, yet
with Example 1 you should finesse
twice, and with Example 2 you
should finesse only once.
The reason is that in Example 1
you are missing equal cards (K-Q).
If East held K-Q doubleton, he had
a choice of plays — he could win
either the king or queen. In Exam-
ple 2, if East held K-J doubleton
there is no such choice — he would
always win the king.
Consider Example 1. Assume the
first finesse loses to an honor, and
West follows low twice (else there
is no problem). If you finesse again
you will succeed when East began
with a singleton honor (two possi-
ble holdings). If you play the ace
you will succeed when East began
with K-Q doubleton (one possible
holding). Finessing twice gives you
two chances instead of one.
Bridge Paradoxes
Below is a table of the relevant
holdings for Example 1:
West East Probability
9-8 K-Q 6.6%
Q-9-8 K 6.2%
K-9-8 Q 6.2%
Notice that K-Q doubleton occurs
slightly more often than either the
singleton king or queen, but com-
bined the singletons are far more
likely. Hence, if you finessed twice
every time without even looking at
East’s card, you would have a suc-
cess ratio of 12.4 to 6.6. If you
finessed just once, you would be a
big loser in the long run.
The classic argument against this
is that once East wins, say, the king,
he cannot have a singleton queen.
Certainly true, but the crux is that
with K-Q doubleton, East can tell
you whatever he wants. When you
observe the king you know it was
either a forced card with a singleton
or a chosen card from K-Q. The
odds favor the forced card because
he might have played the other one
if he had a choice.
Perhaps a better way to look at this
is by events. When the first finesse
loses (and West follows low twice)
there are four possible events:
East Won Probability
King from K-Q 3.3%
Queen from K-Q 3.3%
King singleton 6.2%
Queen singleton 6.2%
The percentage apportionment of
the first two events is arbitrary and
depends on your opponent. If East
varies his play equally, we have the
same ratio in favor of finessing. For
example, if we see East play the
queen, the odds are 6.2 to 3.3 that
it’s the singleton.
by Richard Pavlicek
For practical purposes, it makes
little difference how your opponent
tends to play with K-Q doubleton.
Any percentage lost in one event is
gained in another. The only excep-
tion might be against a player who
always plays a particular card, say
the king. Then, if the queen ap-
peared, you would have a lock in
finessing; or if the king appeared,
you would have a slight edge in
playing for K-Q doubleton. None-
theless, it is foolish to consider this
exception since there is no way to
label a player with such a habit.
Whether you accept the reasoning
behind restricted choice or not, it
has proved to be valid in practice.
Experts know this and consistently
go with the odds. The bottom line:
Always finesse twice unless there
are overriding circumstances relat-
ing to the complete deal. Or to quote
from a late, not-so-great president,
“Trust me; I am not a crook.”
Now look at a table of the relevant
holdings for Example 2:
West East Probability
9-8 K-J 6.6%
J-9-8 K 6.2%
The above are the only possible
layouts when the queen loses to the
king and West follows low twice.
No choices are involved (unless you
want to consider the moronic play
of the jack). Clearly, playing the ace
on the second round is better, with
odds of 6.6 to 6.2 in your favor.
Example 2 is also interesting from
another perspective. Playing for the
maximum dictates the loss of two
tricks if East has a singleton king. If
you can afford to lose one trick but
not two, there is an effective safety
play: Cash the ace first, then return
to the South hand and lead toward
the Q-10-7-6.
Study 4B73, Page 2
Suit-Break Issues
Another paradox arises out of the
relationship between expected suit
breaks and finessing technique. For
instance, nearly everyone has heard
the adage, “Eight ever, nine never,”
which implies that, lacking outside
information, it is correct to finesse
for a queen with eight cards. With
nine cards you should play for the
drop, as in this example:
3. AJ765
K432
Proper play is to cash the king and ace.
Next consider that four missing
cards are expected to split 3-1 more
often than 2-2. This seems to con-
tradict the rule. If a 3-1 break is
actually more likely, why not take
the finesse? Good question.
The explanation lies in the fact
that there are two ways for a suit to
split 3-1. This is easily seen by list-
ing the possible distributions with
their approximate percentages.
West East Probability
0 4 5%
1 3 25%
2 2 40%
3 1 25%
4 0 5%
Note that the 2-2 break is more
likely than any specific 3-1 break;
however, the combined chance of a
3-1 break totals 50 percent, which
is the more likely occurrence.
Consider Example 3 again. After
cashing the king and leading toward
dummy, it is presumed that West
follows low twice, else there is no
problem. This eliminates half of the
3-1 breaks (i.e., West cannot have a
singleton), which shifts the odds in
favor of the 2-2 break.
Bridge Paradoxes
Another way to explain this is by
the “available-space” theory, which
has many applications in bridge. At
the moment of decision, West will
have followed twice and East only
once, so East will have one extra
space in his hand; hence he is more
likely to hold the missing queen.
A similar logic applies to:
4. A Q 10 4
K32
Proper play is to cash the top honors.
Missing six cards, it is well known
that a 4-2 break is more likely than
3-3, so one might conclude that the
finesse is correct. No, because at the
moment of decision West will have
played three cards, thus eliminating
half of the 4-2 breaks — West can’t
have a doubleton when he follows
three times.
The available-space theory gives
the same answer. At crunch time,
West will have played three cards
and East only two, so East is more
likely to hold the missing jack.
Careful Now
One has to be careful about these
situations to be alert for restricted-
choice principles, which generally
take priority. Restricted choice ap-
plies any time a defender may have
a choice of plays from equivalent
cards. Consider this holding, which
is similar to Example 3:
5. A 10 7 6 5
K432
Proper play is to cash the king. Then, if
the queen or jack drops from East, finesse
against West for the missing honor.
Quite a difference! Because of the
equality of the missing Q-J, this is
almost like Example 1. An identical
table could be constructed (except
with Q-J instead of K-Q) to show
the superiority of the finesse.
by Richard Pavlicek
Now consider this holding, which
is similar to Example 4:
6. AQ94
K32
Proper play is to cash the queen and king.
Then, if the jack or 10 drops from East,
finesse against West for the missing honor.
Again, the normal technique of
playing for the drop is overridden
by restricted choice. In this case we
are comparing the chances of East
having J-10-x, J-x or 10-x. An event
table would look like this:
East Played Probability
Jack from J-10-x 3.6%
10 from J-10-x 3.6%
Jack from J-x 6.5%
10 from 10-x 6.5%
The 3.6 percents assume that East
varies his play equally with J-10-x,
in which case the odds are 6.5 to 3.6
in favor of the finesse. The exact
odds when East plays the jack as
opposed to the 10 will vary with the
defender’s habits, but for practical
purposes the third-round finesse is
always the better play.
“Unrestricted” Choice
Do not become so enamored with
restricted choice that you are blind
to reality. The principles do not ap-
ply if a defender is able to falsecard
without risk, as in this example:
7. AQ9543
K2
Proper play is to cash the top honors,
even if East drops the jack or 10.
If the king catches an honor from
East, it may seem correct to finesse.
Wrong! This is because East is not
limited to a singleton honor or J-10
doubleton. It could also be a routine
falsecard from J-10-x.
Exercise 4B81 Safety Plays by Richard Pavlicek

As declarer at notrump, what is the “safety play” (A-C) for each suit holding. Assume you are
willing to lose one trick (perhaps unnecessarily) to avoid the loss of two tricks.

1. A 10 5 4 5. K543 9. AK32
N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

K9832 QJ876 J987

A. Cash the A A. Lead to the K A. Cash the A then run the J

B. Cash the K B. Lead to the Q B. Cash the A then run the 9
C. Finesse the 10 C. Finesse the 8 C. Run the 9

To ensure four tricks: C Optimum for four tricks: A To ensure three tricks: B

2. K432 6. 5432 10. KJ32

N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

AJ987 AK987 A954

A. Cash the A A. Cash the A then cash the K A. Cash the A then cash the K
B. Cash the K B. Cash the A then finesse the 9 B. Cash the A then finesse the J
C. Finesse the J C. Finesse the 9 C. Cash the K then finesse the 9

To ensure four tricks: A Optimum for four tricks: C To ensure three tricks: C

3. KJ83 7. 5432 11. J 10 2

N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

Q9542 A Q 10 9 8 AK843

A. Lead to the K A. Cash the A then lead to the Q A. Cash the A then run the J
B. Lead to the Q B. Finesse the Q then cash the A B. Lead to the jack
C. Finesse the 8 C. Finesse the 10 then finesse the Q C. Run the jack

To ensure four tricks: A Optimum for four tricks: A To ensure four tricks: B

4. J32 8. QJ54 12. A2

N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

AK954 A9632 K Q 10 4 3

A. Cash the A then cash the K A. Cash the A then lead to the Q A. Cash the A then cash the K
B. Cash the A then lead to the J B. Lead to the Q B. Cash the A then finesse the 10
C. Cash the A then finesse the 9 C. Run the Q C. Run the 10

Optimum for four tricks: B Optimum for four tricks: B Optimum for four tricks: B
Exercise 4B93 Odds and Ends by Richard Pavlicek

As declarer, with adequate entries to either hand, answer each question about the spade suit in
the contract shown. Played cards, if any, are underlined (lead is bold underlined).

1. 3 NT Q5 5. 3 NT 3 9. 4 ♠ A654
N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

A83 AKQ65 K8732

What is your % chance What is your % chance What is your % chance

to win two tricks? 50 to win five tricks? 0 to win five tricks? 41

Which card do you lead? 3 to win four tricks? 62 at least four tricks? 91

2. 3 NT 432 6. 3 NT AKQ43 10. 4 ♠ AJ854

N N N
W E 5 W E W E
S S S

A Q 10 652 K7632

What is your % chance What is your % chance Do you win the A or K? K

to win three tricks? 25 to win five tricks? 68
What is your % chance
at least two tricks? 75 at least four tricks? 96 to win five tricks? 89

3. 3 NT KJ5 7. 3 NT AQJ5 11. 4 ♠ KJ92

N N N
8 W E 6 W E W E
S S S

432 432 A7543

What is your % chance What is your % chance Do you win the A or K? A

to win two tricks? 25 to win four tricks? 18
If East plays the 10, will
at least one trick? 75 at least three tricks? 68 you finesse next? No

4. 3 NT AKQ65 8. 3 NT Q953 12. 4 ♠ K 10 5 2

N N N
W E W E W E
S S S

43 A642 A7643

What is your % chance Do you lead the A or 2? A Do you win the A or K? A

to win five tricks? 36
If East plays the 10, will If East plays the jack,
at least four tricks? 84 you finesse the 9? Yes will you finesse next? Yes
Practice 4B01 Odds & Percentages by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠A K 8 6 8 TT 1. E ♠ 10 - 7 K

1♣ Pass 1♦ ♥Q 9 2 2. N ♣ ~! - A -
Pass 2 NT Pass 3 NT ♦A 4 3. S ♥ ~! A! - -
(end) ♣K Q J 2 4. W ♠J 6 - -
♠J 7 3 ♠ Q 10 9 5 5. W ♠3 A - ♦-
7,7 19,20 7,8 7,8 ♥A J 7 3 N ♥K 6 5 6. N ♣K - - -
W E 7. N ♣Q ♦- - -
♦J 6 S ♦ Q 10 8 5 8. N ♣J ♥6 ♦- -
♣8 7 6 3 ♣ 10 9 9. N ♠- Q ♥- ♥-
Bid: Rebid by opener ♠4 2 10. E ♦ - K! - -
Play: Play for best chance ♥ 10 8 4 11. S ♥ 10 - 9 K
Heart finesse (50%) ♦K 9 7 3 2 Win the rest
vs 3-3 diams (36 ♣A 5 4 3 NT by North Made 3 N-S +400

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠9 8 7 10 TT 1. N ♣Q A - -

2♣ Pass ♥A Q 9 5 2. E ♠ A! - - -
2♦ Pass 3♦ Pass ♦9 4 3. E ♠K - - -
4♦ Pass 6 ♦? (end) ♣ Q J 10 9 4. E ♠Q - ♥J -
4,5 9,10 23,27 4,6 ♠3 2 ♠A K Q 4 5. E ♠ 4! - ♥ K! ♥ -
♥K J W
N
E
♥4 3 Win the rest
Bid: 2 C opening, response ♦7 6 3 S ♦ A K Q J 10 8
Slam decision ♣8 7 6 5 4 2 ♣A
Play: Play for best chance ♠ J 10 6 5
Transfer ruff ♥ 10 8 7 6 2
4-3 spade break (62%) ♦5 2
vs heart finesse (50%) ♣K 3 6 ♦ by West Made 6 E-W +920

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠K Q 3 9 TT 1. W ♣K A - -

1♥ ♥ K 10 4 3 2. N ♣ 3! - ♥2 -
Pass 3♥ Pass 4♥ ♦8 4 3. S ♥A - - -
(end) ♣A J 4 3 4. S ♥5 - 10! ♣ -
♠ 10 7 ♠J 8 6 5 5. N ♣4 - ♥6 -
11,12 13,14 4,5 12,14 ♥Q 9 7 N ♥J 6. S ♠2 - Q -
W E 7. N ♣J ♦- ♥8 -
♦K J 6 5 S ♦ Q 10 7 3 8. S ♠4 10 K -
♣ K Q 10 5 ♣9 8 7 2 9. N ♥K ♦- ♦- -
Play: Restricted choice ♠A 9 4 2 10. N ♥4 ♦- ♦- ♦-
Dummy reversal ♥A 8 6 5 2 11. N ♠3 8 9! ♦ -
When ♥ J falls, odds ♦A 9 2 Claim the rest
favor the finesse ♣6 4 ♥ by South Made 7 N-S +510

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠J 9 7 5 TT 1. S ♥7 - J Q

1♣ Pass 2 NT Pass ♥J 9 4 2 2. E ♠ 3! - K -
3 NT (end) ♦K 7 6 4 3. W ♦ 2! - J Q
♣A 9 4. S ♥3 A - -
12,13 9,10 13,13 6,6 ♠ K 10 2 ♠A Q 3 5. W ♦ 9! - 3 ♠-
♥A 5 W
N
E
♥Q 6 6. W ♦5 - 8 ♠-
♦9 5 2 S ♦ A J 10 8 3 Cash 4 more winners
Bid: Resp to 1 of a suit ♣K Q 5 4 2 ♣8 6 3
Play: Play for best chance ♠8 6 5 4
Finessing technique ♥ K 10 8 7 3
Diamond chances (75%) ♦Q
vs club chances (34%) ♣ J 10 7 3 NT by East Made 3 E-W +600
Practice 4B05 Going with the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠A 7 7 TT 1. W ♠6 - J K

1♥ Pass 2 NT ♥A 7 5 3 2 2. S ♣6 - Q -
Pass 3 NT (end) ♦K 2 3. N ♣2 - A -
♣Q 5 3 2 4. S ♣K ♠4 - -
9,9 13,15 5,6 13,15 ♠ Q 10 8 6 4 ♠J 9 3 2 5. S ♣ 9 ♠ 10 - ♦-
♥ Q J 10 8 W
N
E
♥ 9 6 6. S ♦ 3! - K A
Bid: Resp to 1 of a suit ♦Q J S ♦ A 9 7 6 7. E ♠ 2 - Q! A
Play: Play for best chance ♣J 7 ♣ 10 8 4 8. N ♦ 2! - 8 Q
Unusual squeeze ♠K 5 9. W ♠8 ♥- 9 ♦-
Diamond ace West (50%) ♥K 4 10. E ♠3 ♦- ♥- ♥-
vs 3-3 hearts (36% ♦ 10 8 5 4 3 Win the rest
Def: Unblocking play 2-1-2 ♣A K 9 6 3 NT by South Made 3 N-S +400

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠J 8 7 6 TT 1. S ♥6 - K A

1♠ Pass ♥K J 8 4 2. E ♠K Q - -
2♠ Pass 3♠ Pass ♦A 6 3. E ♣6 - Q -
4♠ (end) ♣ 10 8 5 4 4. W ♠3 8 9! ♥5
♠ 10 5 3 2 ♠A K 9 6 4 5. E ♠A ♥7 - -
8,9 9,10 14,16 9,9 ♥9 2 W
N
E
♥A 3 6. E ♣7 - A -
♦Q 9 3 2 S ♦ K 10 5 4 7. W ♦ 2! 6 K -
Bid: Follow up major raise ♣A Q 2 ♣7 6 8. E ♦4 8 9 A
Play: Restricted choice ♠Q 9. N ♥4 - 10 -
Count hand pattern ♥ Q 10 7 6 5 Win the rest
When ♠ Q falls, odds ♦J 8 7
favor the finesse ♣K J 9 3 4 ♠ by East Made 5 E-W +450

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠J 9 5 9 TT 1. N ♣Q K A -

Pass ♥A 8 2 2. S ♥ 3! K A -
2♥ Pass 4♥ (end) ♦J 5 3. N ♥2 - 9 10
♣Q J 9 7 5 4. W ♥ Q - ♦ 2! ♣ 3
6,9 9,9 17,18 8,10 ♠3 ♠A K 8 6 2 5. W ♠ 3! - K -
♥ K Q J 10 7 6 W N E ♥5 4 6. E ♠A - ♣4 -
7. E ♠2 - ♥6 -
Bid: Resp to weak two-bid ♦4 3 S ♦A K 8 6 2 8. W ♦3 - A -
Play: Play for best chance ♣8 6 4 2 ♣K 9. E ♠6 Q ♥7 ♣5
Set up dummy’s suit ♠ Q 10 7 4 10. W ♦4 - K -
4-3 spade break (62%) ♥9 3 11. E ♠8 ♦- ♣6 ♣-
vs 3-3 diamonds ( ♦ Q 10 9 7 Lose the last trick
Def: Shift to trumps ♣ A 10 3 4 ♥ by West Made 4 E-W +620

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠ A Q J 10 9 8 7 5 9 TT 1. E ♥ 3 A J -

Pass 2♣ Pass 2♦ ♥9 2. S ♣ 4! - K A
Pass 2♠ Pass 2 NT ♦A Q 3. E ♥ 2 - K ♠ 7!
Pass 4♠ (end) ♣K 5 4. N ♠ 8! K - -
9,11 16,20 11,12 4,5 ♠4 ♠K 3 5. E ♥ Q - - ♠9
♥ K J 10 6 N ♥Q 7 5 3 2 6. N ♠ 5 - 6 ♣-
W E
Bid: 2 C opening, response ♦ K J 10 S ♦9 3 2 7. S ♦ 4 - Q -
Play: Play for best chance ♣ J 10 6 3 2 ♣A Q 7 Lose 1 more trick
Create extra entry ♠6 2
Use dummy’s entry for ♥A 8 4
greatest advantage ♦8 7 6 5 4
Def: Honor signal ♣9 8 4 4 ♠ by North Made 4 N-S +620
Practice 4B09 Going with the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠K 4 7 TT 1. E ♠6 A! 7 -

1♣ Pass 1♦ ♥K Q 5 4 2. S ♥ ~! - K -
Pass 1♥ Pass 3♣ ♦7 5 3 3. N ♣K - 3 -
Pass 3 NT (end) ♣K Q J 6 4. N ♣Q - 4 -
9,9 14,15 3,5 14,16 ♠ J 10 7 3 ♠Q 9 8 6 5 5. N ♣J ♦- 5 -
♥A 9 2 W
N
E
♥ J 10 8 7 6. N ♣6 ♠- A ♠-
Bid: Rebid by responder ♦K J 9 S ♦ 10 2 7. S ♥6 A - -
Opener’s third bid ♣ 10 9 7 ♣8 2 8. W ♠J K - -
Play: Play for best chance ♠A 2 9. N ♥Q - ♦- -
Play to trick one ♥6 3 10. N ♦ ~ 10 A! -
♥ play superior to ♦ ♦A Q 8 6 4 Lose the rest
Def: Hold on to stopper 9-2-3 ♣A 5 4 3 3 NT by North Made 3 N-S +400

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠6 4 8 TT 1. N ♥ 10 - 2 J

1♦ Pass ♥ Q 10 9 7 6 2. W ♣5 8 A -
2♣ Pass 2♠ Pass ♦Q 6 5 2 3. E ♣4 3 Q! J
3 NT (end) ♣J 8 4. W ♣ 10 ♠4 ♠- K
14,17 5,6 14,16 7,8 ♠A 8 2 ♠ K 10 5 3 5. S ♥8 A - -
♥A K J 3 W
N
E
♥5 4 6. W ♣9 ♠- ♦7 -
Bid: Resp to 1 of a suit ♦ 10 S ♦ A K 9 8 7 7. W ♣7 ♥7 ♦8 ♠7
Rebid after 2-over-1 ♣ Q 10 9 7 5 ♣A 4 8. W ♥K - ♠5 ♦3
Play: Finessing technique ♠Q J 9 7 9. W ♠2 ♦- K -
Double squeeze ♥8 2 10. E ♠ 10 J A ?
♣ Q better % than ♣ 10 ♦J 4 3 North is squeezed
Def: Second-hand play ♣K 6 3 2 3 NT by West Made 6 E-W +490

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠A K J 5 9 TT 1. W ♦6 3 J A

1♥ ♥8 5 2 2. S ♥A J - -
Pass 1♠ Pass 2♥ ♦K 5 3 3. S ♠2 - A -
Pass 3♥ Pass 4♥ ♣9 5 2 4. N ♥ 5 9 10! ♣ -
(end) ♠ 10 9 6 3 ♠Q 8 7 5. S ♥K ♦- - Q
♥J N ♥Q 9 7 6. S ♥6 ♦- ♣~ ♦-
W E 7. S ♠4 - K -
5,7 11,11 10,10 14,16 ♦ 10 8 7 6 S ♦Q J 9 2 8. N ♠ 5! Q ♥ 3 -
♣ A 10 7 6 ♣QJ8 9. S ♦4 - K -
Bid: Rebid by responder ♠4 2 10. N ♠J ♣- ♣3 -
Follow up major raise ♥ A K 10 6 4 3 11. N ♣~ - K A
Play: Restricted choice ♦A 4 Win 1 more trick
Combine chances ♣K 4 3 4 ♥ by South Made 5 N-S +450

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠ Q 10 9 11 TT 1. S ♣3 A! 10 -

1♦ Pass 1♠ Pass ♥J 9 8 2 2. W ♠5 9 A ♣2
4♠ Pass 5♥ Pass ♦J 9 7 3. E ♦ 4! - A -
6♠ (end) ♣ K 10 7 4. W ♦K - ♣5 -
17,19 7,7 11,13 5,8 ♠K J 6 5 ♠A87432 5. W ♦2 J ♠2 -
♥5 4 N ♥A K 3 6. E ♥ A! - - -
W E 7. E ♥K - - -
Bid: Rebid by opener ♦A K 5 3 2 S ♦4 8. E ♥3 - ♠6 -
Control-showing bid ♣A Q ♣6 5 4 9. W ♦3 ♥- ♠3 Q
Play: Shun finesse ♠— 10. E ♠4 ♣- K -
Set up dummy’s suit ♥ Q 10 7 6 11. W ♦5 ♠- ♣6 ♣-
♣ finesse (50%) vs ♦ Q 10 8 6 Claim the rest
4-3 ♦ break (62%) ♣J 9 8 3 2 6 ♠ by East Made 6 E-W +1430
Practice 4B13 Odds & Percentages by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠AQ9643 7 TT 1. E ♦K A J! -

1♠ Pass 1 NT ♥A J 2. S ♥ 3! 6 J 7
Pass 3♣ Pass 3♠ ♦3 3. N ♠3 8 J K
Pass 4♠ (end) ♣ K Q 10 9 4. W ♦ 10 ♠ - - -
♠K 2 ♠ 10 8 7 5. N ♠A - - -
11,12 16,19 6,6 7,7 ♥K 8 6 N ♥ 10 9 7 2 6. N ♠Q - ♦- ♦-
W E
♦ J 10 9 7 S ♦ K Q 8 6 7. N ♥A - - -
Bid: Rebid after 1 NT resp ♣A 8 7 6 ♣J 4 8. N ♣K - - -
Simple preference bid ♠J 5 9. N ♣ Q! J - A
Play: Communication/entries ♥Q 5 4 3 Win the rest
Play for best chance ♦A 5 4 2
Def: Honor signal 6-2-3 ♣5 3 2 4 ♠ by North Made 5 N-S +450

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠ Q 10 7 3 8 TT 1. N ♣Q A 5 -

1♦ Pass ♥K 9 3 2. E ♥ 2 10 Q K
3♥ Pass 4♥ (end) ♦9 8 3. N ♣J - - ♥4
♣ Q J 10 8 4. W ♥ 8! - ♦ 2 A
3,6 8,9 18,20 11,12 ♠5 4 ♠A K J 6 5. S ♣K ♥5 - -
♥ Q J 8 7 6 5 4 WN E ♥2 6. W ♥J - ♦ 3 ♠ 9!
♦7 6 4 S ♦A Q 5 3 2 7. W ♠4 - J! -
Bid: Weak jump response ♣3 ♣A 7 6 Lose 1 more trick
Choose best game ♠9 8 2
Play: Restricted choice ♥ A 10
Play for best chance ♦ K J 10
Def: Try to fool declarer ♣K 9 5 4 2 4 ♥ by West Made 4 E-W +420

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠A 3 8 TT 1. S ♥K - 2 -

2♥ ♥ 10 8 2 2. S ♥A - - -
Dbl Pass 3♠ Pass ♦Q 9 8 3 3. S ♠ 5! Q A -
4♠ (end) ♣Q 8 5 3 4. N ♠3 - - -
♠QJ7 ♠ K 10 9 8 6 5. E ♠K - - ♥ 10
16,16 8,9 8,10 8,10 ♥Q 3 N ♥5 4 6. E ♣J - A! -
W E 7. W ♦ ~ - 10! -
♦K J 6 5 S ♦ A 10 2 8. E ♠ 10 ♥ - ♣ - ♣ -
Bid: Combat weak two-bid ♣A K 6 2 ♣ J 10 9 9. E ♣ 10 - K! -
Resp to takeout double ♠5 4 2 10. W ♦6 - A -
Play: Placing enemy cards ♥AKJ976 11. E ♠ 9! ♥ - ♣ 6 ?
Automatic squeeze ♦7 4 North is squeezed
Def: Passive defense ♣7 4 4 ♠ by East Made 4 E-W +620

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠A 6 6 TT 1. W ♣J 2 7 K

Pass 1♥ Pass 1♠ ♥Q98654 2. S ♥A - - -
Pass 2♥ Pass 3 NT ♦K 6 3 3. S ♦2 - K -
(end) ♣A 2 4. N ♥ Q! 10 ♦8 K
♠K 8 7 2 ♠Q 9 3 5. W ♣8 A - -
10,10 13,15 4,5 13,15 ♥K J 7 3 N ♥ 10 2 6. N ♥9 ♠- ♠4 J
W E 7. W ♣ 10 ♦ - 6 -
♦Q 5 S ♦ 10 9 7 4 8. W ♠- A - -
♣ J 10 8 ♣Q 7 6 5 9. N ♥8 ♦- ♠ 10 -
Bid: Resp to 1 of a suit ♠ J 10 5 4 10. N ♥6 ♠- ♠J ♠-
Rebid by responder ♥A 11. N ♥5 ♦9 ♣9 ♠8
Play: Play for best chance ♦A J 8 2 12. N ♦6 - A! Q
Show-up finesse ♣K 9 4 3 3 NT by South Made 4 N-S +630
Practice 4B17 Odds & Percentages by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠Q J 9 4 8 TT 1. N ♠Q - 8 A

1♥ Pass Pass ♥ Q 10 6 4 3 2. W ♣4 - Q -
Dbl Pass 2♦ Pass ♦A K 2 3. E ♣J - - ♥-
2 NT Pass 3 NT (end) ♣3 4. E ♣8 - A ♦2
18,19 12,14 8,10 2,3 ♠A K ♠5 3 5. W ♥ J! Q A -
♥K J 8 7 W
N
E
♥ A 2 6. E ♥2 9 K -
Bid: Balancing double ♦ 10 8 4 S ♦ J 9 7 5 3 7. W ♥ 8 10 ♦ - ♣-
Rebid by doubler ♣A K 5 4 ♣Q J 9 8 8. N ♠- - 10 K
Play: Unusual finesse ♠ 10 8 7 6 2 9. W ♣K ♥- - ♠-
Play South for ♥ 10-x ♥9 5 10. W ♥7 ♠- ♦- ♠-
or 9-x (not queen) ♦Q 6 Lose the rest
Def: Choose lead (NT) ♣ 10 7 6 2 3 NT by West Made 3 E-W +400

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠K 5 4 7 TT 1. E ♠9 2 10! K

Pass 1♥ ♥8 4 2. N ♦A - - -
1♠ 2 NT Pass 3 NT ♦ A Q 10 2 3. N ♦2 ♣3 K -
(end) ♣K 6 4 2 4. S ♦ - - 10 ♠ -
10,12 12,13 4,6 14,16 ♠ Q J 10 8 6 ♠9 7 3 5. N ♦Q ♣- - -
♥6 5 W
N
E
♥ Q J 10 9 6. N ♥~ - K -
Bid: Cope with overcall ♦J 9 8 7 S ♦6 7. S ♣ 7! Q K -
Play: Finessing technique ♣A Q ♣ J 10 9 5 3 Win 2 more tricks
♣ A in West (bidder) far ♠A 2
superior to 3-3 hearts ♥A K 7 3 2
Def: Lead partner’s suit ♦K 5 4 3
Overtaking play ♣8 7 3 NT by North Made 3 N-S +600

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠ A Q 10 9 TT 1. W ♦4 A - -

3♠ ♥A Q 7 5 3 2. N ♥ A! - - -
Pass 4♠ (end) ♦A 2 3. N ♥3 8! ♠ 8 -
♣8 6 4 4. S ♠3 - A -
10,11 16,18 10,12 4,7 ♠9 2 ♠7 5. N ♥5 - ♠J -
♥ J 10 4 W
N
E
♥ K 9 8 6 6. S ♠4 - Q ♣5
Bid: Response to preempt ♦K J 7 4 3 S ♦ Q 10 9 8 7. N ♥7 K ♠K ♦3
Play: Play for best chance ♣AJ2 ♣ K Q 10 5 8. S ♠5 ♦ 7 10 ♦ 9
Set up dummy’s suit ♠KJ86543 Win 2 more tricks
4-3 heart break (62%) ♥2
vs heart finesse (50%) ♦6 5
Def: Second-hand play ♣9 7 3 4 ♠ by South Made 4 N-S +420

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠Q 7 6 8 TT 1. S ♦K - 9 A

Pass Pass 1♠ 2♦ ♥ K 10 8 5 3 2. E ♥ 4! 7 Q K
2♠ Pass 4♠ (end) ♦9 2 3. N ♦2 - J -
♣ 10 9 7 4. S ♦Q - ♥3 ♠2
7,7 5,6 15,17 13,14 ♠A 9 5 ♠ K 10 8 4 3 2 5. E ♥6 9 - 10!
♥Q 2 W
N
E
♥ J 6 4 6. N ♣ 10 K - -
Bid: Cope with overcall ♦ 10 4 3 S ♦A 6 7. E ♥J A ♠9 -
Follow up major raise ♣J 6 5 4 2 ♣A K 8. W ♠A - - -
Play: Ruff in short hand ♠J 9. W ♠ 5 - 10! ♦ -
Restricted choice ♥A 9 7 Win the rest
Def: Attitude signal ♦K Q J 8 7 5
Overtaking play ♣Q 8 3 4 ♠ by East Made 4 E-W +620
Practice 4B21 Going with the Odds by Richard Pavlicek

West North East South 1 None Vul ♠ 10 9 2 9 TT 1. E ♦ J ♠ 7! 7 A

1♥ Pass 1♠ ♥AK8764 2. N ♥ A - - 9
Pass 2♥ Pass 3♣ ♦A 3 2 3. N ♣ K! - 3 -
Pass 4♠ Pass 6♥ ♣K 4. N ♦ 2 - ♥ 5 -
(end) ♠K 5 3 ♠6 4 5. S ♣ 4! - ♥ 4 -
♥9 N ♥ Q J 3 6. N ♦ 3 - ♥ 10 -
W E
6,8 14,14 9,10 11,14 ♦Q 9 7 6 5 S ♦ K J 10 8 4 7. S ♣ 5! - ♥ 6 Q
♣J 9 8 2 ♣ Q 10 7 8. N ♥ K J ♠ 8 ♦ -
Play: Set up dummy’s suit ♠A Q J 8 7 9. N ♥ 8! Q ♠ J ♠ 3
Force out high trump ♥ 10 5 2 10. E ♦ K ♠ Q - ♥ 7
4-3 break is better ♦— Dummy is good
than spade finesse 5-2-2 ♣A 6 5 4 3 6 ♥ by North Made 6 N-S +980

West North East South 2 N-S Vul ♠J 7 9 TT 1. N ♣4 Q A 2

1♠ Pass ♥8 7 6 5 2. S ♦6 A - -
2♦ Pass 2♥ Pass ♦5 4 3. W ♦K - 3 -
3♠ Pass 4♠ Pass ♣ 10 8 7 4 3 4. W ♥ 2 - A! -
4 NT Pass 5♥ Pass ♠K 9 3 ♠ A 10 8 4 2 5. E ♥3 9 ♦9 -
6 ♦! (end) ♥2 N ♥ A Q 10 3 6. W ♣K 3 ♠- -
W E
17,19 1,2 12,13 10,11 ♦A K Q J 10 9 S ♦ 8 3 2 7. W ♣ J 7 ♦ 8! -
♣K J2 ♣Q 8. E ♥ 10 J ♦ 10 -
Play: Combine chances ♠Q 6 5 9. W ♦Q ♣- ♠4 ♣-
Automatic squeeze ♥K J 9 4 10. W ♦ J! ♥ - ♠ 10 ?
♥ K ruffout or squeeze ♦7 6 South is squeezed
better than finesse ♣A 9 6 5 6 ♦ by West Made 6 E-W +920

West North East South 3 E-W Vul ♠A 9 6 TT 1. W ♠4 A! - -

1 NT ♥5 4 3 2. N ♦ 3! - J Q
Pass 3 NT (end) ♦8 4 3 3. W ♠Q - - K
♣ A J 10 6 4 4. S ♣- - A! 7
5,6 9,10 10,10 16,16 ♠ Q 10 8 4 3 2 ♠7 6 5 5. N ♦ 8! - 2 ♥-
♥ J 10 7 6 W
N
E
♥ Q 9 8 6. N ♦4 7 9 ♠-
♦Q S ♦K 7 6 5 Cash 4 more winners
♣9 5 ♣K Q 7
Play: Play for best chance ♠K J
Finessing technique ♥A K 2
Choose diamonds because ♦ A J 10 9 2
of greater solidity ♣8 3 2 3 NT by South Made 3 N-S +400

West North East South 4 Both Vul ♠Q 9 8 10 TT 1. S ♥Q 3 - K

1♦ Pass 1♠ Pass ♥7 5 4 2. E ♠4 J A 8
2♠ Pass 4♠ (end) ♦ 10 7 3. W ♠ 2 9 10! ♣ 2
♣ J 10 9 5 4 4. E ♠K ♣- 3 Q
14,14 3,4 15,16 8,9 ♠A 6 3 2 ♠ K 10 7 5 4 5. E ♦K - - -
♥A 6 3 N ♥K 9 2 6. E ♦Q - - 10
W E 7. E ♦ 5 - 9! ♣ 4
♦A 9 4 3 S ♦K Q 5 8. W ♦ A ♣ - ♣ 7! -
♣Q 8 ♣A 7 9. W ♣- - A -
♠J 10. E ♠ 7! ♥ 8 - ♣-
♥ Q J 10 8 11. E ♠ 5! ?
Play: Restricted choice ♦J 8 6 2 South is squeezed
Positional squeeze ♣K 6 3 2 4 ♠ by East Made 7 E-W +710