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Eadlines: Saturday, June 11, 2011
Eadlines: Saturday, June 11, 2011
Headlines
(Global Economy) US unemployment rate increased to 9.1% in May 2011. (Indian Economy) Industrial Production grew 6.3% in April 2011 (New IIP Series) (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty June Futures closed at 5484.15 (Technical Analysis) Nifty Support levels are at 5350-5325 and Resistance 5550-5600. (Weekly Recommendations) Century Textiles Ltd. & Karnataka Bank Ltd. (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (Apr11) Annualized Rate (current) Headline Inflation (WPI) 8.66 Internals Primary Products Fuel Power and Lubricants Manufactured Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on June 10, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Yen 10 year Gilt 1 Year Gilt
Source: CCIL
55 50 45 40
Silver ($/OZ)
390 110 380 370 360 90 350 340 80 330 320 310 60 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11 300
100
Price (USD)
1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Silver Jan-11 Gold Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11
35 30 25 20 15 10
70
Inventory
1.8 1.75 1.7
Crude Oil
1.15 1.1 1.05
Currencies
Currencies
1.65
USD / GBP
1
USD / JPY
1.6 1.3 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11
0.011 0.0105
0.8 0.01 0.0095 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11 0.75 0.7
USD / EUR
USD / GBP
USD / JPY
USD / AUD
Economic Calendar
India Date 14-Jun 14-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun Event India Manpower Survey Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY India REPO Cutoff Yield Food Articles WPI YoY Fuel Power Light WPI YoY Primary Articles WPI YoY Cash Reserve Ratio Reverse Repo Rate Period 3Q MAY 16-Jun 4-Jun 4-Jun 4-Jun Prior 49.0% 8.7% 7.3% 9.0% 12.5% 11.5% 6.0% 6.3%
US Date 14-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 15-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun Event Producer Price Index (YoY) Advance Retail Sales Consumer Price Index (YoY) Empire Manufacturing NAHB Housing Market Index Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Building Permits Housing Starts Current Account Balance U. of Michigan Confidence Period MAY MAY MAY JUN JUN 10-Jun 4-Jun MAY MAY 1Q JUN P Prior 6.8% 0.5% 3.2% 1188.0% 16.0 427K 3676K 551K 523K -$113.3B 74.3
USD / AUD
1.35
0.0115
Inventory
(Million Barrels)
120
Crude Oil
400
Outlook
Indian markets saw muted volumes in the second week of June series. On the economic data front, Food Articles WPI came in at 9.01%; Primary Articles WPI came in at 11.52%. Industrial Production for April came in at 4.4% vs. 7.3%, disappointing investors further. The inflation remained at high levels despite RBI increasing interest rates in last meeting. RBI is likely to increase the key rates by 25bps in its June-16 meeting. Banking and Auto sectors are likely to get affected further in the next week. Political events in the country are also affecting the global investors. The next week is likely to remain volatile ahead of RBI meeting. Key support levels for Nifty are placed at 5380-5450, below which further downsides are possible. Some pullback rally cannot be ruled out as some beaten down stocks might get new buyers.
Market Snapshot
Nifty June Futures closed at 5484.15 (Premium of 1.65 over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 30 June): 23.70 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 30 June): 1.53 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 18.54, up 0.93 from previous weeks close (17.61). In the week VIX touched low of 17.55 and high of 19.75. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option) Across all expiries, open interest is highest at the 5800, 5600, 5700 call options, while open interest in the put options is highest at 5000, 5300, 5400 strike
5400 5600 5800 5900 6000
5200
5500
5000
5700
5300
5100
prices, suggesting 5300-5800 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term, though the trend seems downwards.
Strike
Change in OI
3,000,000
Sector Wise OI Change: Banking, Oil&Gas, Auto, Metal&mining, IT sectors saw gains in Open Interest.
2,000,000
OI-Cha nge
1,000,000
5800
5900
5100
6000
5000
5400
5600
5200
5300
5500
5700
(1,000,000)
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
Sec tors
% Change - Price Cash -8.25% -7.35% -7.49% -5.79% -5.93% Future -8.31% -6.77% -6.67% -6.02% -5.98%
%Change - Volume % Change Cash 220.03% 700.84% 83.89% -59.39% -46.13% Future -19.74% 56.59% 208.65% -23.66% -52.34% in OI 60.16% -0.28% 12.39% 13.24% 9.69%
% Change in OI
1 0.95 0.9
UNIPHOS EXIDEIND
PCR
% Change in F&O Price -0.86% 1.23% 9.81% 4.55% 6.87% 7.43% 3.30% 3.47% 9.16% 4.55% Open Interest 2.08% -4.17% 4.94% -5.52% 18.92% 2.46% 0.53% -6.47% 5.25% 4.95%
% Change Volumes (Delivery Based) 4659.79% 3177.86% 966.21% 881.33% 698.50% 484.38% 431.04% 336.55% 296.60% 217.50%
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a marginal negative note @ 5486 and down by 31 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed doji candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5504.30 and made a high of 5570 and made a low of 5457.45 then finally closed negative at 5486. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close below the 65 day moving average (5606) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative trend with trading range between 5570-5370. The next area of resistance is around 5520-5570. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5400-5350 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5480 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5520-5570 and supports at 5400-5350. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10800-10920 and supports at 10541-10370.
Cement
Ambuja Cements has bought an 85% stake in Nepals Dang Cement Industries for about INR 191 mn and company is also in the process of buying an additional 5% in Dang, which holds limestone mining lease in Nepal, for INR 11.3 mn. Neutral
Information Technology
Infosys Ltd. will explore business opportunities in the government outsourcing market in the UK as the company seeks to increase its share of revenue from public sector departments looking to cut costs. The company has also acquired Gen-I, the corporate information communication technology arm of Telecom New Zealand. HCL Infosystems Ltd. is under the scanner of the CBI for its alleged role in charging an exorbitant fee of nearly INR 5.7 bn for its broadcast network technology to MTNL Ltd. during the Commonwealth Games, although the initial estimate for the same was only around INR 314.3 mn. HCL Technologies Ltd. may strengthen its presence in the financial services sector by buying out Oracle Financial Services services arm.
10
15
20
Equity
25
30
35
10
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 9-Jun-11 8-Jun-11 7-Jun-11 6-Jun-11 FII Activity 10-Jun-11 9-Jun-11 8-Jun-11 7-Jun-11 6-Jun-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 2.74 2.79 3.13 4.71 Sales 2.29 2.57 2.86 2.95 Net Purchase /Sales 0.45 0.22 0.27 1.75 Purchase 36.61 50.90 36.39 38.97
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 17.00 20.86 27.64 24.38 Net Purchase /Sales 19.62 30.04 8.75 14.59
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instruments maturing on or before the date of Bond Fund Index maturity of the Plan under the Scheme. To generate regular income through investments in Debt and Money Market Instruments. In accordance with SEBI Circular No SEBI/IMD/
6-Jun
16-Jun
Close ended
Mr. Gautam Kaul CIR No. 12/147132/08 dated December 11, 2008; each Plan shall invest only in such securities which mature on or before the maturity date of the respective plan. To generate returns through investments in debt and money market instruments with a view to Mr. Deepak Agrawal Mr. Abhishek Bisen
10-Jun
16-Jun
Close ended
significantly reduce the interest rate risk. The Crisil Short-Term Scheme will invest in debt and money market Bond Fund Index securities, maturing on or before maturity of the scheme. To seek to protect capital by investing a portion of the portfolio in good quality debt securities &
3-Jun
17-Jun
Close ended
Mr. Mrinal Singh / money market instruments and also to provide Crisil MIP Blended capital appreciation by investing the balance in Mr. Chaitanya Index Pande equity and equity related securities. The securities would mature on or before the maturity of the Plan under the scheme. To generate regular income by investing in debt
DWS FTF-84(G)
6-Jun
20-Jun
Close ended
and money market instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme.
13
Benchmark
10-Jun
24-Jun
Asia Index
14
Weekly Recommendations (Debt) NAV Scheme Name Category: Floating Rate Birla SL FRF-LT(G) Reliance FRF ST(G) LICMF FRF-STP(G) Category: Income - Long term Birla SL Dynamic Bond-Ret(G) ICICI Pru Income-Reg(G) DSPBR Govt. Sec(G) Category: Income - Short term Kotak Bond-STP(G) Templeton India ST Income(G) UTI ST Income(G) Category:Ultra Short Term Fund Templeton India Ultra-ST-Ret(G) Kotak Floater-ST(G) Tata Floater(G) Category: Liquid Templeton India TMA-Reg(G) SBI Magnum InstaCash-Cash(G) Tata Liquid-RIP(G)
Source: Accord Fintech
(11 Jun 11) 17.11 15.94 16.24 16.58 31.23 33.35 18.78 1987.19 17.02 12.72 16.31 14.92 2441.52 22.12 2277.78
Average Modified Expense YTM Maturity In Duration in Ratio 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception Days Days Absolute Return (In %) CAGR (In %) 0.17 0.21 0.15 0.23 0.30 0.26 0.24 0.27 0.40 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.75 0.67 0.59 0.64 0.38 0.89 0.74 0.75 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.69 0.71 0.71 7.38 6.73 6.29 5.75 2.99 2.07 4.17 6.12 7.03 7.39 7.30 7.61 6.86 7.23 6.87 6.93 10.02 5.94 6.96 0.00 0.00 21.90 178.85 9.84 547.50 1324.95 1642.50 211.70 445.30 635.10 29.20 25.55 20.52 36.50 18.25 16.44 21.90 164.25 9.36 529.25 949.00 1076.75 193.45 357.70 0.00 29.20 25.55 0.00 32.85 18.25 0.00 0.14 0.80 0.64 0.79 2.11 1.25 0.89 1.30 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.85 0.35 0.65
7.85 10.25 9.17 10.84 7.16 6.90 7.15 6.38 7.19 7.04 6.80 6.65 9.14 0.00 9.80 0.00 8.81 9.10 8.65 8.73 7.98 8.88
7.61 10.74
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Category Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Equity Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Debt Debt
Record Date 15-Jun-11 15-Jun-11 15-Jun-11 14-Jun-11 15-Jun-11 15-Jun-11 13-Jun-11 14-Jun-11 14-Jun-11 14-Jun-11 15-Jun-11 15-Jun-11
Gross 1.31 0.71 1.58 2.23 1.31 6.88 30.00 6.50 2.50 3.50 1.71 1.45
Corporate 1.31 0.71 1.58 2.23 1.31 6.88 30.00 6.50 2.50 3.50 1.71 1.45
Non-Corporate 1.31 0.71 1.58 2.23 1.31 6.88 30.00 6.50 2.50 3.50 1.71 1.45
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