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HandyAndy 2002
USERS’ GUIDE

Andrew Isserman
University of Illinois

May 2, 2002
HandyAndy gives you a convenient, powerful way to make population projections for
regions, states, metropolitan areas, and counties. HandyAndy is an Excel workbook consisting of
spreadsheets and graphs. After you enter specified demographic data for a place that interests you,
HandyAndy makes the hundreds of calculations entailed in a cohort-component projection and
provides graphs of population trends, birthrates, survival rates, migration rates, and population
pyramids. The projection method itself is described in Andrew M. Isserman, “The Right People,
The Right Rates: Making Population Estimates and Forecasts with an Interregional Cohort
Component Model,” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 45, 1993, pp. 45-64.
Migration is the least predictable component of local population change, and HandyAndy
offers several improvements over conventional practice. It uses in- and out-migration rates instead
of the commonly used but incorrect net migration rates. It contains a system for estimating age-
specific in- and out-migration rates for post-censal years. This system makes possible your use of
estimated 1990-1995 and 1995-2000 rates, as well as the 1985-90 rates derived from the 1990 census
(still the most recent cohort migration data available). It also allows you to form migration rates that
describe longer historical periods than the five-year rates typically used, and it provides you
considerable flexibility in specifying migration rates.
FIVE SECTIONS
HandyAndy has five elements:

1. INPUT, three spreadsheets into which you enter data

2. RATES, four spreadsheets that calculate demographic rates

3. PROJECTIONS, seven spreadsheets that project population ahead five years, beginning
with 1990 to 1995 and ending with 2020 to 2025, and one summary spreadsheet that shows
all the projections

4. CHARTS, seven graphs that show the demographic rates, the population trend, and
population pyramids in 1990, 2000, and 2025

5. STORAGE, six blank spreadsheets to store the summary spreadsheets from previous
projections while HandyAndy makes additional sets based on different rates, and a super
summary spreadsheet which shows the totals from each set.
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THREE SPREADSHEETS TO ENTER DATA

Input P+M
Here you provide data on the population levels and in- and out-migration levels of the place that
interests you. These data come from various sources and include:
• Total population. You enter two data series, one based on census counts and the other on
intercensal estimates. Start the census series with a reasonable choice of year and go through
2000. The 1990 and 2000 census count is readily available at the Census website,
www.census.gov, and the Census compilation of all its counts between 1790 and 1990 is on
the class website. These numbers will help you gain a sense of population change over the
past half-century and put your projections into historical perspective. Take the estimate
series from your CD-ROM, Regional Economic Information System, 1969-99. These numbers will
help you interpret and evaluate the migration rates from different time periods when making
your forecasts.
• Population by age. You must enter population by age and gender from the 1990 and 2000
censuses and from the 1995 estimates. You can download the 1990 and 2000 cohort
populations from the Census website, or obtain the 1990 data from US Counties 1998. The
1995 estimates are at http://eire.census.gov/popest/archives/county/co_cas.php. You will
have to use your Access or Excel skills to put the 1995 and 2000 single-year statistics into
the necessary five-year age groups, 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, . . . 80-84, 85+.
• Population control totals. HandyAndy begins with the 1990 population and moves forward
five years at a time to 1995, 2000, and beyond. HandyAndy requires that its calculated
populations match control totals whenever they are specified. There are two reasons to
specify a control total: (1) to make certain that the HandyAndy numbers equal known
population numbers, for example, the 1995 estimate and the 2000 count, and (2) to make the
projections equal predetermined numbers, for example, a forecast based on employment
trends. HandyAndy automatically specifies the control totals for 1995 and 2000 based on
the population data you have entered. If you are using forecasts as control totals, you must
enter the forecasts in the cells provided for 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and/or 2025.
• Migration. You must enter data for in-migrants, out-migrants, and stayers by age and
gender. This information also comes from the 1990 census and counts moves occurring
between 1985 and 1990. These data are available on a CD-ROM from the Census Bureau,
but they are difficult to extract, so they will be provided to you.
Input B+D
Here you enter birth and death data for your place of interest:
• Births by age of mother. Generally you must obtain these data from state or local sources.
Ideally, you will get data for 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, and 2001 on the number of births
to mothers in each age group 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49. If
you are unable to obtain data for any of these years, you must take some detours. For
example, if you have 1990 numbers but not 1989 and 1991, put the 1990 numbers into the
1989 and 1991 cells, too. Likewise, if you have 1999 and 2000, put the 2000 numbers into
the 2001 cells as well. At a minimum, you need to fill the 1989-91 rows OR the 1999-2001
rows. If you do not have birth data for both periods, however, you must remember to take
action on the spreadsheet Birth & Survival Rates.
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• You will have to modify the birth data before entering it in HandyAndy . It expects a
specific set of age groups, but practices vary among the states. Some states compile data for
a group “over 40,” which you may assume is 40-44. Some states will provide data for a
mixture of two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year age groups, so you will have to
allocate the births to HandyAndy’s five-year groups in some reasonable fashion. Some
births not assigned to any age group (perhaps because that information was omitted form
the birth certificate); a reasonable strategy is to assign them to the age group or groups with
the most births. The number of births is often zero for the youngest and oldest groups.
• In the worst case, if you can only obtain data on total births without any information on age
of mother, you must allocate those births to age groups based on an age pattern you observe
in an appropriate reference area you pick. One possibility is to calculate one-year birthrates
for 1990 for the other area, multiply them by your area’s population by age in 1990, sum
these estimated births by age of mother, and then scale them upward or downward by
multiplying them by the ratio of your area’s actual total 1990 births to this sum of the
estimated births. The resulting numbers are estimates of births by age of mother for your
area in 1990, and they should sum to the 1990 total births. Type them into HandyAndy.
• Birth sex ratio. HandyAndy uses as a default the sex ratio of the population of 0-4 year
olds in 1990. You might obtain data that identifies the number of baby girls and boys, in
which case HandyAndy can calculate the sex ratio based on those numbers. To use that
ratio instead of the one based on young children, change cell D19 from =D14 to =D18.
• Death by age and gender. You must obtain these data from state or local sources, too,
ideally in five-year cohorts. Some states tabulate these numbers in ten-year age groups,
except for ages 0-4 and 85+. In that case, HandyAndy crudely allocates the 10-year
information to five-year cohorts. As in the case of the birth data, you might need to
improvise, allocate, and make estimates.
Input US
You do not enter any data on this sheet. It contains numbers from the U.S. Bureau of the Census
for the U.S. population by age and gender. The 1990 and 2000 numbers are census counts, the 1995
numbers are estimates, and the 2005 through 2000 numbers are the Bureau’s middle-series
projections. A Census report describing the projection methodology and assumptions is available
on the class website.
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FOUR SPREADSHEETS TO CALCULATE DEMOGRAPHIC RATES

Birth & Survival Rates
This spreadsheet takes data you entered and calculates birthrates for 1990 and 2000 and survival
rates for 1990. If you entered birth data for 1990 and 2000, you need do nothing here. If you
obtained birth data for only one time period, 1989-91 or 1999-2001, you must paste the values of
the operational birth rates from one time period into the other. HandyAndy must find numbers in
row 12 to use during the 1990 to 2000 period and in row 23 to project beyond 2000.
Migration Rates
This spreadsheet calculates 1985-1990 migration rates, and you need take no action.
Adjuster
Here you make calculations that assure known totals are met. Beginning with 1990 to 1995, the
term “gap” refers to the difference between population by age calculated using the 1990 birth and
survival rates and 1985-1990 migration rates and the population by age you entered for 1995.
HandyAndy modifies the 1985-90 migration rates and 1990 birthrates to make the gaps disappear.
To begin, delete the values from Champaign County under the Paste Special/Values rows (21, 22,
and 26-31), being careful not to erase formulas in other rows. Then copy the contents of the two
rows under the bold-faced Copy from Here, Migration, and paste their values into the two rows
below Paste Special/Values, M. The two rows under Copy from Here, Migration should turn
to zeros as the gaps disappear before your eyes.
Now turn your attention to births. Copy the content of cell B60, and paste its value into B62. After
B60 changes, paste its new value into B63. Continue until B60 becomes zero. HandyAndy is
adjusting the 1990 birthrates, in effect creating 1990-95 birthrates, to make the gaps disappear for
the 1995 population aged 0-4.
Repeat the entire procedure lower on this spreadsheet to adjust the 1985 migration rates and 1990
birthrates to create the 1995-2000 migration rates and birth rates.
If you want to specify a forecast of total population for 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and/or 2025, you
will have to follow a related procedure using a modified version of HandyAndy.
Migration Rate Adjustments
This spreadsheet is your control center for making projections. You specify coefficients that
HandyAndy multiplies times the 1985-90 age-specific inmigration and outmigration rates to create
new rates. There are separate blocks for outmigration and inmigration coefficients. The rows for
1995 and 2000 contain the adjustment factors that you created in matching the 1995 and 2000
population numbers. The numbers you put into the rows for 2005 through 2025 create future
migration rates. If you put 1.00 into those cells, you are simply projecting the 1985-90 rates into the
future (because each of them is being multiplied by one). If you copy the values from the 1995
rows, you are recreating the estimated 1990-95 rates (because those coefficients times the 1990 rates
balanced the 1995 population). In the same way, the values in the 2000 rows create the 1995-2000
migration rates. You can form multiple period rates by averaging. For example, averaging a value in
the 1995 row with its counterpart in the 2000 row yields a coefficient that produces a 1990-2000
rate. Adding 1.00 to the values in those two cells and dividing by three yields a coefficient that
creates a 1985-2000 rate.
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EIGHT SPREADSHEETS TO MAKE AND COLLECT PROJECTIONS

1990 to 1995 and 1995 to 2000
The 1990 to 1995 spreadsheet uses the 1990 population, the 1990 birth and survival rates, the 1985-
90 migration rates, and the birth and migration adjustment coefficients to move the population
ahead five years to 1995. The 1995 to 2000 spreadsheet moves ahead in similar fashion.
2000 to 2005 through 2020 to 2025
These five spreadsheets also move the population ahead five years. They make projections using the
2000 birth rates and the migration adjustment coefficients you have specified. They require no
action.
Summary
This spreadsheet collects numbers from the previous seven spreadsheets to gather in one place the
population for each cohort from 1990 through 2025. At any moment, the projections in that
spreadsheet result from the coefficients in the Migration Rate Adjustments spreadsheet. Change
those coefficients and you change the projections.
SIX BLANK SPREADSHEETS TO SAVE RESULTS
Storage 1 through Storage 6 and SuperSum
Changing the migration rate adjustments, birthrates, or survival rates causes a cascade of other
changes and creates a new set of projections, over-riding the previous ones. These blank storage
spreadsheets are a reminder to save the results from a projection run before creating another. To do
so, select the “Summary” sheet and copy its contents with paste special/value into a Storage sheet.
Then in cell A1 give the projection a name, like M8500, and add some words in A2 to remind you
which assumptions you made, e.g., “1985-2000 migration rates with 1990 birth and survival rates.”
SuperSum provides an overview of all the projections you have stored.
NINE GRAPHS TO ILLUSTRATE DATA
These graphs serve three purposes. They can be used to illustrate reports, explain the nature
of population change, and to spot irregularities in the data, which might stem from errors in the data
or mistakes in data entry.
Out Chart and In-Chart
These charts show the 1990 out-migration rates and in-migration rates by age and gender. They are
five-year probabilities of moving.
Survive Chart
This chart shows the 1990 survival rate by age and gender, also five-year probabilities.
Birth Chart
This chart shows the 1990 and 2000 birthrates by age of mother, again a five-year probability.
Pyramid 90 and 00 and Pyramid 00 & 25
These charts show the 1990 and 2000 populations and the 2000 and 2025 populations by age and
sex, respectively. They present a summary view of population change. The latter is based on the
projections currently in Summary. You might want to create additional ones to link to projections in
the Storage spreadsheets.
Pop Census, Pop REIS, and Pop Census+
These two charts show population for the census years you entered and the REIS period, 1969-99,
with the projections for 2010 and 2020 from Summary included in Pop Census+.