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Metro Brands Ltd

Leading player in a high growth market.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Summary 3

Valuation and Peer Comparison 4

Understanding the Business 6

Financial Analysis & Projections 8

Quarterly Summary 10

Key Growth Drivers 12

Consumption linked industry set for growth 12

Store Expansion Plans 14

Increased contribution of e-commerce and omni channel sales 15

Introduce and expand portfolio of sustainable footwear 15

Asset light business with an efficient operating model 16

Key Management Persons 18

Risk & Concerns 18

Issue Structure and Offer Details 19

Financial Statement Analysis & Projections 20

Disclaimer 21

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Metro Brands Ltd

Not Rated

Leading player in a high growth market.

Incorporated in 1955, Metro Brands Ltd (MBL) is one of the largest footwear Industry Retail
specialty retailers in India. The company operates 598 stores across 136 cities and
targets the economy, mid and premium segments of the market. It retails footwear Issue Details
under its own brands - Metro, Mochi, Walkway, Da Vinchi and J. Fontini, as well as Listing BSE & NSE
certain third-party brands - Crocs, Skechers, Clarks, Florsheim, and Fitflop. We Open Date 10th Dec 2021
believe these brands have a pan-India appeal across regions. It also offers Close Date 14th Dec 2021
accessories such as belts, bags, socks, masks and wallets as well as footcare and Price Band INR 485-500
shoe-care products through its joint venture, M.V. Shoe Care Private Limited, Face Value INR 5
making it a ‘one-stop-shop’ for all footwear and related accessories. Market Lot 30 shares
Minimum Lot 1 Lot
The Indian footwear consumption in value terms is expected to grow at 15%-17%
CAGR over FY22-25. This is also expected to drive growth of the market share of Issue Structure
organized players by a ~21% CAGR over the same period. The market share of online Offer for Sale 78%
footwear sales is also expected to grow at ~28% CAGR between Fiscal 2020 and Fresh Issue 22%
Fiscal 2025. We believe that Metro is well positioned to take advantage of these Issue Size (Amount) INR 1368 cr
trends owing to its large size and omni-channel presence. Issue Size (Shares) 2,73,50,100
QIB Share (%) ≤ 50%
The company plans to expand its portfolio to also include sustainable footwear and Non-Inst Share (%) ≥ 15%
enhance its e-commerce customer buying experience with faster dispatches. We Retail Share (%) ≥ 35%
forecast revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 39.6%/44.7%/55.7% to INR 2,174 cr/INR Pre issue sh (nos) 26,56,07,426
523 cr/INR 258 cr by FY24. EBITDA/PAT margins are expected to expand by 250 Post issue sh (nos) 27,15,07,426
bps/330 bps to 24.1%/11.8%. Post issue M Cap INR 13,575 cr

At the upper band IPO price of INR 500 per share, the company is trading at a P/E Pre Post
Shareholding (%)
of 52.7X FY24 P/E. The proposed issue size is INR 1,367.51 cr out of which INR 295 (%) (%)
Promoter 84.0 74.3
is a fresh issue and the balance is OFS. Post the OFS, the promoter holding will stand
Institution 16.0 20.7
reduced to 74.3%.
Public 0.0 5.0
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
Key Financial Data (INR Cr, unless specified)
Net EV/
Net EBITDA BVPS RoIC P/BV
Revenue EBITDA Profit EPS (₹) RoE (%) P/E (X) EBITDA
Profit (₹) (%) (X)
(%) (%) (X)
FY20 1,285 353 157 27.5 12.2 5.8 30.6 19.4 49.7 86.6 16.3 37.5
FY21 800 51 68 6.4 8.5 2.5 31.2 8.2 5.6 199.1 16.0 79.1
FY22E 1,424 340 157 23.9 11.0 5.8 46.7 12.6 18.2 86.3 10.7 39.4
FY23E 1,789 430 208 24.0 11.6 7.7 52.5 14.8 20.3 65.2 9.5 31.3
FY24E 2,174 523 258 24.1 11.8 9.5 59.3 16.2 22.2 52.7 8.4 25.7

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Valuation and Comparable Metric of Domestic Peers

Figures as mentioned P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/BV (X) RoE (%) RoIC (%) Sales EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%)
PEG
Company Name Mkt Cap Price 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
2021-24
Domestic Peers (Fig in INR Cr)
Metro 13,575 500 0.9 199.1 86.3 65.2 52.7 79.1 39.4 31.3 25.7 16.0 10.7 9.5 8.4 8.2 12.6 14.8 16.2 5.6 18.2 20.3 22.2 800 1,424 1,789 2,174 21.6 23.9 24.0 24.1 8.5 11.0 11.6 11.8
Bata 24,404 1,901 -0.2 (273.2) 157.7 53.3 45.1 150.1 49.5 26.2 25.5 13.9 13.1 10.8 9.6 (5.1) 8.3 20.3 21.3 (6.1) 25.9 57.2 61.6 1,708 2,440 3,444 3,745 9.5 19.4 25.9 24.1 (5.2) 6.3 13.3 14.5
Relaxo 31,656 1,272 3.0 108.6 100.1 76.9 62.0 63.4 58.7 46.7 38.4 20.1 19.4 16.5 13.3 18.5 19.4 21.4 21.4 28.7 36.6 44.0 53.9 2,359 2,818 3,363 3,834 21.0 18.8 19.7 20.7 12.4 11.2 12.2 13.3
Khadims 460 256 -2.3 14.0 (640.3) 21.7 17.3 146.5 11.5 6.2 5.6 7.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 (15.2) (0.4) 9.6 10.5 - - - - 626 704 912 1,013 0.5 7.0 10.0 10.0 5.3 0.1 2.3 2.6
Global Peers (Fig in USD mn)
Nike 2,71,121 171 2.2 47.3 47.4 36.4 31.7 32.7 35.3 27.5 24.3 21.2 19.8 18.2 15.1 44.7 41.7 49.9 47.6 57.1 72.6 78.1 76.9 37,403 44,538 47,227 53,583 18.6 16.0 18.1 18.7 12.9 12.1 13.9 14.6
Adidas 57,391 299 0.9 34.2 27.0 22.3 19.0 15.8 13.3 11.6 10.1 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.3 20.1 23.1 25.4 27.8 27.3 32.7 35.2 38.5 22,657 24,277 26,643 29,139 15.0 16.2 17.0 17.9 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.5
Puma 18,543 123 1.0 54.1 37.8 30.1 26.2 20.2 16.2 13.7 13.0 8.4 7.4 6.4 5.2 15.6 19.6 21.3 19.9 23.9 30.0 31.6 30.1 5,976 7,536 8,477 9,436 12.3 13.6 14.4 14.0 4.5 5.8 6.5 6.9
On Holding 13,121 42 - (126.5) 957.9 116.2 - 127.9 117.4 60.9 - 12.7 13.0 11.6 - (10.0) 1.4 10.0 - (13.4) 6.7 29.8 - 454 764 1,040 1,481 12.8 10.3 13.8 - (13.6) 1.3 7.6 -
Under Armour 10,644 24 1.8 30.0 27.8 24.0 21.3 15.7 13.3 11.4 10.4 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.3 18.9 17.2 17.1 15.6 41.9 46.8 53.6 54.2 4,475 5,615 5,941 6,237 11.3 12.1 13.0 12.9 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.7
Skechers 7,278 47 0.8 18.7 14.9 12.9 12.3 8.9 7.7 6.5 6.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 12.5 13.4 13.3 12.2 25.3 25.4 25.7 19.9 4,597 6,187 6,894 7,581 11.8 12.1 12.7 12.9 6.3 7.1 7.4 7.3
Foot Locker 4,610 44 0.2 14.3 5.9 6.9 6.8 5.6 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 11.6 24.6 18.4 17.1 7.1 47.3 37.5 35.4 8,005 7,548 8,990 9,240 14.5 13.8 12.0 11.9 4.3 8.7 7.2 7.2
Boot Barn Holdings 3,743 126 0.6 63.0 23.1 24.8 22.9 25.8 14.7 14.7 14.2 9.4 6.9 5.5 4.5 14.9 29.8 22.1 19.9 13.1 47.5 42.5 45.6 846 893 1,364 1,424 17.3 18.3 16.9 15.6 6.6 11.9 10.6 10.6
Wolverine World Wide 2,711 33 - 15.5 12.6 11.2 - 9.7 8.1 7.3 - 4.0 3.4 2.9 - 25.8 26.7 25.7 - 31.7 35.1 36.1 - 1,791 2,407 2,833 2,994 12.2 12.2 12.4 - 7.3 7.6 8.1 -
Allbirds 2,357 16 6.4 (50.8) (57.4) (78.4) (278.9) (123.1) (114.6) (922.9) 115.6 4.4 7.8 8.7 9.0 (8.6) (13.6) (11.1) (3.2) (9.3) (20.1) (14.0) (4.5) 219 273 352 453 (6.6) (5.6) (0.5) 3.6 (17.0) (11.7) (6.6) (1.5)
Source: Ventura Research & Bloomberg

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MBL available at a significant discount to peers
90.0

80.0 Nike

70.0

60.0

50.0 Boot Barn Holdings


FY24 ROE

Adidas
40.0 Foot Locker
Puma
30.0
Bata Skechers Relaxo
20.0
Khadims Metro
10.0

0.0 Allbirds
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
(10.0)
FY24 PEG

50.0

45.0

40.0 Metro

35.0
FY21-24 Revenue CAGR

30.0 Bata
Allbirds
25.0
Skechers
20.0
Boot Barn Holdings
Khadims Relaxo
Puma
15.0
Nike
Under Armour
10.0

5.0 Foot Locker

Adidas
0.0
(5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
-5.0
FY24 EBITDA Margin

Source: Ventura Research, ACE Equity & Bloomberg

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Understanding the business

MBL is one of the largest Indian footwear specialty retailers. As of September 30, 2021, the
company operated 598 stores across 136 cities in India. It targets the economy, mid and
premium segments in the footwear market, which together are expected to grow at a higher
rate compared to the total footwear industry between FY20-25. These segments have a higher
presence of organized players and their growth in the overall footwear industry is expected to
accelerate growth of the organized segment in the footwear industry

Pan India Presence with 588 stores | 136 Cities | 30 States and UTs (as on Sep’21)

Source: Company Reports

Products for the entire family with focus on Mid and Premium Segment (as on Sep’21)

Source: Company Reports

The company retails footwear under its own brands - Metro, Mochi, Walkway, Da Vinchi and
J. Fontini, as well as certain third-party brands such as Crocs, Skechers, Clarks, Florsheim, and
Fitflop. We believe these brands have a pan-India appeal across regions. It also offers
accessories such as belts, bags, socks, masks and wallets. It has a JV with M.V. Shoe Care Private
Limited through which it retails footcare and shoe-care products at its stores making it a ‘one-
stop-shop’ for all footwear and related accessories.

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Diversified business model provides synergies by spanning consumer segments,


categories and distribution channels.

____________________________________________________________________________
Source: Company reports

Its retail operations are carried out through its stores and distributors as well as through online
channels. It primarily follows the “company owned and company operated” (“COCO”) model
of retailing through its own Multi Brand Outlets (“MBOs”) and Exclusive Brand Outlets
(“EBOs”). It operates Metro, Mochi and Walkway branded MBOs and Crocs™ branded EBOs.
MBL & its subsidiary Metmill also operates shop-in-shops (“SIS”) in major departmental stores
across India. It also distributes products of third-party brands through MetMill and retail
products through franchisees.

In FY21, In-Store Product Sales, Online Product Sales, and Omni-Channel Product Sales
represented 91.93%, 6.15%, and 1.09%, of the company’s revenue from operations,
respectively (on a standalone basis).

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Financial Analysis and Projections


Over the period FY19-21, MBL reported a revenue decline of 18.9% to come at a revenue of
INR 800 cr in FY21. The footwear industry took a major hit due to the pandemic induced
lockdowns due to which even the EBITDA/net profit de-grew at 15.9%/33.6% to INR 173 cr/INR
68 cr respectively.

EBITDA margin however improved by 150 bps to 21.6% due to lower operating expenses during
the period, whereas net profit margin contracted by 420 bps to 8.5%. Return ratios ROE and
ROIC contracted by 1,420 bps and 4,040 bps to 8.2% and 5.6% respectively.

Over the period FY21-24E, we expect MBL to grow its revenues at a CAGR of 39.5% to INR 2,174
cr driven by 3.6% CAGR in net sales realisations to INR 1,476 per unit. Revenue/sq ft is expected
to increase at a CAGR of 29.4% to INR 21,990.

EBITDA/PAT are expected to grow at a faster CAGR of 44.7%/55.7% to INR 523 cr/INR 258 cr
respectively. EBITDA and PAT margins are set to expand by 250bps and 330 bps to 24.1% and
11.8% respectively. Return ratio ROE and ROIC are expected to expand by 800 bps and 1,660
bps to 16.2% and 22.2% by FY24.

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MBL’s Financial Summary


Fig in INR Cr (unless specified) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E FY31E
Revenue from operations 1,217.1 1,285.2 800.1 1,423.9 1,789.0 2,174.1 2,597.4 3,076.5 3,612.2 4,220.7 4,845.2 5,462.8 6,103.2
YoY Growth (%) 13.2 5.6 (37.7) 78.0 25.6 21.5 19.5 18.4 17.4 16.8 14.8 12.7 11.7
Employee Cost 112.1 126.8 102.6 169.4 212.9 258.7 309.1 366.1 426.2 498.0 571.7 644.6 720.2
Employee Cost to Sales (%) 9.2 9.9 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
Other Expenses 311.9 234.9 164.3 290.5 361.4 437.0 519.5 612.2 715.2 831.5 949.7 1,065.2 1,184.0
Other Expenses to Sales (%) 25.6 18.3 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4
Cost to income ratio (%) 34.8 28.1 33.4 32.3 32.1 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.2
EBITDA 244.3 352.9 172.7 340.3 429.7 523.3 626.5 746.7 885.7 1,041.2 1,197.7 1,353.1 1,520.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 27.5 21.6 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.9
Net Profit 154.5 156.7 68.2 157.3 208.3 257.6 311.5 377.3 450.5 542.3 629.1 706.2 777.8
Net Margin (%) 12.7 12.2 8.5 11.0 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.7

Adjusted EPS 5.8 5.9 2.6 5.9 7.8 9.7 11.7 14.2 17.0 20.4 23.7 26.6 29.3
P/E (X) 85.9 84.7 194.7 84.4 63.7 51.5 42.6 35.2 29.5 24.5 21.1 18.8 17.1
Adjusted BVPS 25.9 30.4 31.2 47.0 52.9 59.9 68.0 77.4 88.0 100.9 115.8 131.8 148.5
P/BV (X) 19.3 16.4 16.0 10.6 9.5 8.4 7.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.4
Enterprise Value 13,375.0 13,240.2 13,666.6 13,411.2 13,446.0 13,441.1 13,412.9 13,368.9 13,303.7 13,208.0 13,071.2 12,926.4 12,791.2
EV/EBITDA (X) 54.8 37.5 79.1 39.4 31.3 25.7 21.4 17.9 15.0 12.7 10.9 9.6 8.4

Net Worth 686.9 807.3 827.6 1,248.3 1,404.5 1,590.0 1,804.9 2,053.9 2,337.7 2,679.4 3,075.7 3,499.4 3,942.8
Return on Equity (%) 22.5 19.4 8.2 12.6 14.8 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.3 20.2 20.5 20.2 19.7
Capital Employed 696.8 818.9 1,394.5 1,881.1 2,124.5 2,390.8 2,690.9 3,027.9 3,395.2 3,825.4 4,304.8 4,811.3 5,339.6
Return on Capital Employed (%) 21.1 20.7 2.8 7.8 9.1 10.1 10.9 11.7 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.7
Invested Capital 481.9 467.5 914.2 1,079.5 1,270.5 1,451.1 1,637.8 1,842.8 2,061.4 2,307.3 2,566.9 2,845.7 3,154.0
Return on Invested Capital (%) 46.0 49.7 5.6 18.2 20.3 22.2 23.9 25.8 27.8 29.5 30.6 30.9 31.1

Cash Flow from Operations 104.3 273.1 265.3 264.8 348.6 445.3 534.4 632.0 740.8 870.7 1,009.3 1,147.6 1,282.2
Cash Flow from Investing (67.4) (162.6) (122.4) (226.9) (316.7) (359.3) (423.0) (505.7) (571.5) (658.5) (748.6) (745.4) (867.6)
Cash Flow from Financing (40.6) (111.5) (127.1) 275.3 (25.7) (59.7) (87.3) (124.1) (174.5) (211.3) (256.6) (313.9) (371.5)
Net Cash Flow (3.7) (1.0) 15.8 313.2 6.2 26.3 24.2 2.2 (5.2) 0.8 4.1 88.2 43.2
Free Cash Flow 61.5 222.4 248.5 11.9 27.5 88.5 134.8 183.9 248.9 309.4 379.6 438.9 493.5
FCF to Revenue (%) 5.1 17.3 31.1 0.8 1.5 4.1 5.2 6.0 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.0 8.1
FCF to EBITDA (%) 25.2 63.0 143.9 3.5 6.4 16.9 21.5 24.6 28.1 29.7 31.7 32.4 32.4
FCF to Net Profit (%) 39.8 141.9 364.3 7.5 13.2 34.4 43.3 48.7 55.3 57.0 60.4 62.2 63.4
FCF to Net Worth (%) 9.0 27.5 30.0 1.0 2.0 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.6 11.5 12.3 12.5 12.5

Total Debt 9.9 11.6 566.9 632.8 720.0 800.8 886.0 974.0 1,057.5 1,146.0 1,229.1 1,311.9 1,396.8
Net Debt (205.0) (339.8) 86.6 (168.8) (134.0) (138.9) (167.1) (211.1) (276.3) (372.0) (508.8) (653.6) (788.8)
Net Debt to Equity (X) (0.3) (0.4) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Net Debt to EBITDA (X) (0.8) (1.0) 0.5 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5)
Interest Coverage Ratio (X) 363.4 5.8 1.1 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.0
Source: Company RHP and Ventura Research

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MBL’s Quarterly Summary


Fig in INR Cr (unless specified) FY20 FY21 H1FY22 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Revenue from operations 1,285.2 800.1 456.0 1,423.9 1,789.0 2,174.1
YoY Growth (%) 5.6 (37.7) 78.0 25.6 21.5
Raw Material Cost 570.7 360.5 196.0 623.7 785.0 955.1
RM Cost to Sales (%) 44.4 45.1 43.0 43.8 43.9 43.9
Employee Cost 126.8 102.6 52.7 169.4 212.9 258.7
Employee Cost to Sales (%) 9.9 12.8 11.5 11.9 11.9 11.9
Other Expenses 234.9 164.3 95.9 290.5 361.4 437.0
Other Expenses to Sales (%) 18.3 20.5 21.0 20.4 20.2 20.1
EBITDA 352.9 172.7 111.4 340.3 429.7 523.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.5 21.6 24.4 23.9 24.0 24.1
Cost to income ratio (%) 28.1 33.4 32.6 32.3 32.1 32.0
Net Profit 156.7 68.2 43.1 157.3 208.3 257.6
Net Margin (%) 12.2 8.5 9.5 11.0 11.6 11.8

Adjusted EPS 5.9 2.6 1.6 5.9 7.8 9.7


P/E (X) 84.7 194.7 84.4 63.7 51.5
Adjusted BVPS 30.4 31.2 47.0 52.9 59.9
P/BV (X) 16.4 16.0 10.6 9.5 8.4
Enterprise Value 13,240.2 13,666.6 13,411.2 13,446.0 13,441.1
EV/EBITDA (X) 37.5 79.1 39.4 31.3 25.7

Net Worth 807.3 827.6 1,248.3 1,404.5 1,590.0


Return on Equity (%) 19.4 8.2 12.6 14.8 16.2
Capital Employed 818.9 1,394.5 1,881.1 2,124.5 2,390.8
Return on Capital Employed (%) 20.7 2.8 7.8 9.1 10.1
Invested Capital 467.5 914.2 1,079.5 1,270.5 1,451.1
Return on Invested Capital (%) 49.7 5.6 18.2 20.3 22.2

Cash Flow from Operations 273.1 265.3 264.8 348.6 445.3


Cash Flow from Investing (162.6) (122.4) (226.9) (316.7) (359.3)
Cash Flow from Financing (111.5) (127.1) 275.3 (25.7) (59.7)
Net Cash Flow (1.0) 15.8 313.2 6.2 26.3
Free Cash Flow 222.4 248.5 11.9 27.5 88.5
FCF to Revenue (%) 17.3 31.1 0.8 1.5 4.1
FCF to EBITDA (%) 63.0 143.9 3.5 6.4 16.9
FCF to Net Profit (%) 141.9 364.3 7.5 13.2 34.4
FCF to Net Worth (%) 27.5 30.0 1.0 2.0 5.6

Total Debt 11.6 566.9 632.8 720.0 800.8


Net Debt (339.8) 86.6 (168.8) (134.0) (138.9)
Net Debt to Equity (X) (0.4) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Net Debt to EBITDA (X) (1.0) 0.5 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3)
Interest Coverage Ratio (X) 5.8 1.1 3.6 4.2 4.7
Source: Company RHP and Ventura Research

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MBL story in charts

Number of stores expected to grow at 9.7% CAGR % Contribution of format wise stores to total stores
900 12 120%
800
10 100%
700
600 8 80%
500
6 60%
400
300 4 40%
200
2 20%
100
0 0 0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Metro Mochi Walkway Metro Mochi Walkway Crocs


Crocs YoY Growth (%)
INR cr

1.6 Number of units expected to grow at 34.8% CAGR 1,500 2,500 Revenue to grow at 39.5% CAGR 100

1.4 80
1,450
2,000
1.2 60
1,400
1.0 1,500 40

0.8 1,350 20

0.6 1,000 0
1,300
0.4 (20)
500
1,250
0.2 (40)

0.0 1,200 0 (60)


FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

INR cr No. of Units (Cr.) NSR (Rs./Unit) INR cr Revenue YoY Growth (%)

600 Profitability ratios expected to improve 30 Trajectory of return ratios


1,800 60

500 25 1,600
50
1,400
400 20
1,200 40
1,000
300 15 30
800
200 10 600 20
400
100 5 10
200
0 0 0 0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

EBITDA Net Profit Net Worth Invested Capital RoE (%) RoIC (%)
EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%)

Source: Company Reports and Ventura Research

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Key Growth Drivers

Consumption linked industry set for growth


The approximately INR 62 trillion (in 2019 to 2020) Indian retail industry is dependent on
disposable income, affordability, and consumer sentiment. Low inflation, lower interest rates,
favourable economic growth positively influences consumer disposable income and
sentiment, which improves retail spending.

Growing retail industry (INR tn)


100
91
90

80

70
62 64

60 57

50

38
40

30

20
FY15 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY25E

Source: RHP, Company Reports & Ventura Research

Footwear segment – a part of the growing retail industry

Globally, India is ranked second among footwear-producing countries in terms of unit pairs,
China being first. China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Pakistan, Germany, France, UK and
Italy are some of the major footwear-producing nations worldwide.
Global average per capita annual consumption is approximately 3.2 pairs as of 2019. India’s
per capita annual consumption is very low, compared to its peers, at approximately 1.9 pairs,
as can be seen from the graph below.

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Per capita consumption of footwear and grow in volume


9 3 Bn pairs 2.87
8 3
2.56
7 3
2
6 2.24
2 2.05
5
2
4
2 1.68
3
2
2
1
1 1
1
FY15 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY25E

Source: RHP, Company Reports & Ventura Research

The Indian footwear industry has witnessed an increase in activity over the last few years, with
the changing consumer attitude towards footwear. Shoes, initially positioned as a value
purchase, are now transcending into a lifestyle purchase.

The footwear segment comprises approximately 1.5% share of total retail industry as of FY20.
Going forward, footwear sector expects to chase a growth momentum to reach at INR 1.4
trillion by Fiscal 2025, growing at a CAGR of approximately 21% between FY21 to FY25.

Shift from value to high-value footwear products

Growth in the footwear industry in value terms has largely been supported by growth in
Average Selling Price (ASP). ASP of the Indian footwear industry has risen over the years on
account of a gradual shift in preference from mass-market footwear to premium categories of
footwear.

The ASP of the Indian footwear industry has grown from around INR 308 per pair in FY15 to
around INR 376 per pair in FY20, recording a CAGR of approximately 4.1% on account of a rise
in disposal income and discretionary spending, penetration of organized retail, availability of
more designs and greater awareness of fashion trends.

Shift towards premium products invites growth in the organized footwear market

The footwear industry in India is highly fragmented with the presence of local unorganised
shops and regional organized retail stores. The Indian footwear industry remains largely
unorganised, with approximately 69.4% share of the total footwear industry as of FY20.

The organized players’ share has grown at a CAGR of approximately 15% in the past 5 years,
largely on account of a rise in urbanization levels and increasing acceptance of brands and
modern retail formats by the Indian consumer.

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Companies have started migrating from the current strategy of 'multiple warehousing' to the
'hub and spoke' model as tax treatment across India will be uniform. GST has also driven the
market share gains for organized players, as tax arbitrage which used to help unorganized
players has been reduced.

Indian organized footwear market size (Rs.Bn)


606
540

506

406

320
294
306
229
206
147

106

6
FY15 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY25E

Source: RHP, Company Reports & Ventura Research

Indian organized footwear market size (Rs.Bn)

Source: RHP, Company Reports & Ventura Research

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Women’s footwear gaining significant traction along with men’s footwear category

The Indian footwear industry can also be classified based on gender, namely men, women and
kids’ footwear. Traditionally, the men’s footwear segment has enjoyed majority share of total
footwear industry, although in terms of growth, women’s and kid’s categories have fared
marginally better with approximately 10% and approximately 9% CAGR respectively between
FY15 to FY20. The men’s footwear category grew at 8% CAGR during the same period.
Women’s footwear as a category has started gaining significant traction, especially as branded
players are offering comparatively more designs and choices in this segment as compared to
the men’s or kid’s segments. Also, a key factor for growth is increasing participation of women
in the workforce.

Store Expansion Plans –

The share of organized players in the India footwear industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of
approximately 20%-22% over FY22-25 to comprise approximately 36%-40% of the total
footwear industry market by FY25. Specifically, the footwear industry will witness growth on
account of change in consumer attitude to footwear, from utility to fashion wear, higher
demand for active footwear, growing fashion and lifestyle market, and penetration of Indian
and foreign brands in footwear. MBL is set to benefit from this consumer transition as it plans
to utilize the funds from the fresh issue for the purpose of opening 260 new stores across
various formats up till FY25.

Number of Stores

1000

900 858

800

700
586 598
600
504
500

400

300

200

100

0
FY19 FY21 H1FY22 FY25

Source: Company Reports

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Increase in the contribution of e-commerce and omni channel sales as a proportion


of total sales –

Over the long term, the online retail segment is expected to grow at a healthy CAGR of
approximately 28%-34% from FY20-25. To take advantage of this trend, MBL plans to leverage
existing capabilities to increase its e-commerce operations. It intends to integrate the omni-
channel model as well as apply new technologies to further expand and improve its operations
to handle individual customer deliveries and enhance customer buying experiences with faster
dispatches. Its total online product sales have grown at a CAGR of 72.95% from INR 19.1 cr in
FY19 to INR 57.2 cr in FY21.

Introduce and expand portfolio of environmentally sustainable footwear –

With the thrust on sustainable fashion, consumers all over the globe are preferring
environmentally friendly solutions and the footwear industry is no exception to this. MBL
intends to intensify its product development efforts to develop and launch sustainable
footwear through alternate sources by optimizing its raw materials. For instance, it has
recently developed a line of footwear using merino wool that is a natural fiber improving
breathability of the shoe, making it suitable for summers and winters. By using merino wool
and avoiding use of animal hide the shoe is largely vegan in its manufacturing process, and the
material for the upper portion of the shoe is also biodegradable. MBL has similarly developed
footwear by using materials created out of a yarn that is manufactured by upcycling the plastic
from discarded PET bottles.

It is also in the process of introducing sustainable packaging for its products, and intends to
replace traditional paper boxes, paper bags and fillers with recycled paper. This will allow the
company to remain cost efficient by optimizing raw materials involved, while catering to the
growing trend of sustainable fashion.

Asset light business with an efficient operating model –

MBL is one of the few footwear brands to outsource all its products through outsourcing
arrangements without having its own manufacturing facility, resulting in an asset light model.
This model is based on 3rd party manufacturing by long-standing vendor relationships, and
supported by active brand portfolio management, optimum store size and layout, and long-
term lease arrangements.

Owing to the scale of operations of MBL, it is able to negotiate better margins with its vendors
and enter into arrangements with third-party brands on favourable terms.

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Industry Leading performance in profitability

Source: Company Reports

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MBL’s Management Team


KMP Designation Description
He holds a BCom degree from Siddharth College of Commerce and
Economics, University of Bombay. He has attended the Owner/President
Rafique A. Malik Chairman
Management Program at the Harvard Graduate School of Business and
has over 50 years of experience in the field of footwear retail.
She holds a BA degree and a BBA degree from the University of Texas at
Austin. She is presently attending the Owner/President Management
Farah Malik Bhanji MD Program at the Harvard Graduate School of Business. She has been
associated with our Company as a director since December 5, 2000. She
has over 20 years of experience in the field of footwear retail.
He holds a B-Com degree, in Financial Accounting and Auditing (Special)
Mohammed Iqbal from Mithibai College, University of Mumbai. He has also successfully
Whole-time Director
Hasanally Dossani completed ‘AESTHINT15: Rhetoric: The Art of Persuasive Writing and
Public Speaking’, a course of study offered by HarvardX
He holds a MBA degree from the University of Western Sydney. He has in
Nissan Joseph CEO the past worked with Payless Shoes Pty Ltd and y Brands, Inc. He has also
spent over five years in key roles in Crocs.
She holds a BA degree (Finance) from University of Northumbria
President, ECommerce
Alisha Rafique Malik conducted at Welingkar Institute of Management Development and
and Ma rketing
Research.
He holds a B-Com degree in Financial Accounting and Auditing (Special)
Kaushal Khodidas
CFO from University of Mumbai and is a qualified CA. He has previously served
Parekh
as Associate Vice President, Ernst & Young Pvt Ltd.
He holds a bachelor’s degree of commerce in in Financial Accounting and
Sohel Jalaludin Kamdar COO Auditing (Special) from Sydenham College of Commerce and Economics,
University of Mumbai

Source: Company Reports

Key Risks and Concerns

1. Inability to identify customer demand and trends accurately and maintain an optimal
level of inventory in stores may impact operations adversely and will therefore hamper
our estimates.

2. Inability to effectively manage or expand the retail network and operations or pursue its
growth strategy will cause the new stores to not achieve the expected level of
profitability which is a downside risk to the business and our forecasts.

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Issue Structure and Offer Details

The proposed issue size of MBL’s IPO is INR 1,367.5 cr, out of which INR 1,072.5 cr is an offer
for sale and the balance is fresh issue. The price band for the issue is in the range of INR 485-
500 and the bid lot is 30 shares and multiples thereof.

Selling shareholders in the OFS


Selling Shareholders Number of shares offered (upto)
Promoter & Promoter Group Selling Shareholders
Aziza Malik Family Trust 37,37,000
Rafique Malik Family Trust 36,60,000
Farah Malik Bhanji 28,09,000
Alisha Rafique Malik 28,09,000
Zarah Rafique Malik 28,09,000
Zia Malik Lalji 28,09,000
Sabina Malik Hadi 28,09,000
Other Selling Shareholder
Rakesh Hridaynarayan Pathak 8,100
Total 2,14,50,100
Source: Company Reports

Issue Structure
Category No. of shares offered % of Issue
QIB 1,36,75,050 Not more than 50%
Non Institutional Bidders 41,02,515 Not less than 15%
Retail 95,72,535 Not less than 35%
Total 2,73,50,100 100%
* Number of shares based on higher price band of INR 500
Source: Company Reports

Shareholding Pattern
Category Pre Issue Post Issue
Promoters 83.99% 74.27%
Institutions 16.01% 20.70%
Public 0.00% 5.04%
Total 100.00% 100.00%
Source: Company Reports

Objects of the Issue


Particulars Amount in cr
Expenditure for opening new stores Up to 295
Less Offer related expenses [●]
Total [●]
Source: Company Reports

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Financial Analysis & Projections


Fig in INR Cr (unless specified) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Fig in INR Cr (unless specified) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Income Statement Per share data & Yields
Revenue 1,285.2 800.1 1,423.9 1,789.0 2,174.1 Adjusted EPS (INR) 5.8 2.5 5.8 7.7 9.5
YoY Growth (%) 5.6 (37.7) 78.0 25.6 21.5 Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 10.2 7.0 11.1 14.0 16.9
Raw Material Cost 570.7 360.5 623.7 785.0 955.1 Adjusted BVPS (INR) 30.6 31.2 46.7 52.5 59.3
RM Cost to Sales (%) 44.4 45.1 43.8 43.9 43.9 Adjusted CFO per share (INR) 10.1 9.8 9.8 12.8 16.4
Employee Cost 126.8 102.6 169.4 212.9 258.7 CFO Yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.3
Employee Cost to Sales (%) 9.9 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 Adjusted FCF per share (INR) 8.2 9.2 0.4 1.0 3.3
Other Expenses 234.9 164.3 290.5 361.4 437.0 FCF Yield (%) 1.6 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.7
Other Exp to Sales (%) 18.3 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.1 Dividend Payout (%) 0.3 58.4 22.0 25.0 28.0
EBITDA 352.9 172.7 340.3 429.7 523.3 Solvency Ratio (X)
Margin (%) 27.5 21.6 23.9 24.0 24.1 Total Debt to Equity 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
YoY Growth (%) 44.5 (51.1) 97.1 26.3 21.8 Net Debt to Equity (0.4) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Depreciation & Amortization 120.6 121.8 144.3 171.8 201.8 Net Debt to EBITDA (1.0) 0.5 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3)
EBIT 232.2 50.8 196.0 258.0 321.5
Margin (%) 18.1 6.4 13.8 14.4 14.8 Return Ratios (%)
YoY Growth (%) 4.8 (78.1) 285.5 31.6 24.6 Return on Equity 19.4 8.2 12.6 14.8 16.2
Other Income 25.9 78.5 68.2 81.3 91.1 Return on Capital Employed 20.7 2.8 7.8 9.1 10.1
Finance Cost 39.7 44.8 54.0 60.9 68.4 Return on Invested Capital 49.7 5.6 18.2 20.3 22.2
Interest Coverage (X) 5.8 1.1 3.6 4.2 4.7
Exceptional Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Ratios
PBT 218.4 84.5 210.2 278.3 344.2 Payable Days (Nos) 57 93 72 70 70
Margin (%) 17.0 10.6 14.8 15.6 15.8 Inventory Days (Nos) 107 132 101 102 102
YoY Growth (%) (8.4) (61.3) 148.8 32.4 23.7 Receivable Days (Nos) 20 23 21 22 22
Tax Expense 58.7 19.3 52.9 70.1 86.6 Net Working Capital Days (Nos) 70 62 50 54 54
Tax Rate (%) 26.9 22.8 25.2 25.2 25.2 Net Working Capital to Sales (%) 19.0 17.0 13.7 14.8 14.8
PAT 159.7 65.2 157.3 208.3 257.6
Margin (%) 12.4 8.2 11.0 11.6 11.8 Valuation (X)
YoY Growth (%) 1.2 (59.2) 141.2 32.4 23.7 P/E 86.6 199.1 86.3 65.2 52.7
Min Int/Sh of Assoc (3.0) 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 16.3 16.0 10.7 9.5 8.4
Net Profit 156.7 68.2 157.3 208.3 257.6 EV/EBITDA 37.5 79.1 39.4 31.3 25.7
Margin (%) 12.2 8.5 11.0 11.6 11.8 EV/Sales 10.3 17.1 9.4 7.5 6.2
YoY Growth (%) 1.5 (56.5) 130.7 32.4 23.7
Cash Flow Statement
Balance Sheet PBT 218.4 84.5 210.2 278.3 344.2
Share Capital 132.8 132.8 135.8 135.8 135.8 Adjustments 134.4 90.9 166.9 209.9 244.7
Total Reserves 698.0 714.7 1,132.4 1,288.6 1,474.0 Change in Working Capital (21.1) 109.1 (59.4) (69.6) (57.0)
Shareholders Fund 830.8 847.4 1,268.1 1,424.3 1,609.8 Less: Tax Paid (58.7) (19.3) (52.9) (70.1) (86.6)
Long Term Borrowings 0.0 488.6 552.8 614.2 678.6 Cash Flow from Operations 273.1 265.3 264.8 348.6 445.3
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities (12.4) (16.7) (15.8) (15.8) (15.8) Net Capital Expenditure (44.0) (24.8) (219.7) (267.7) (296.9)
Other Long Term Liabilities 458.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Investments (118.6) (97.6) (7.2) (49.0) (62.4)
Long Term Trade Payables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow from Investing (162.6) (122.4) (226.9) (316.7) (359.3)
Long Term Provisions 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 Change in Borrowings (71.8) (32.5) 65.9 87.2 80.8
Total Liabilities 1,277.0 1,320.0 1,806.1 2,024.0 2,274.2 Less: Finance Cost (39.7) (44.8) (54.0) (60.9) (68.4)
Net Block 708.0 723.6 799.0 894.9 990.0 Proceeds from Equity 0.0 0.0 298.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Work in Progress 12.9 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Buyback of Shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Intangible assets under development 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend Paid 0.0 (49.8) (34.6) (52.1) (72.1)
Non Current Investments 7.9 7.3 11.0 13.8 16.7 Cash flow from Financing (111.5) (127.1) 275.3 (25.7) (59.7)
Long Term Loans & Advances 42.7 38.9 54.4 68.4 83.1 Net Cash Flow (1.0) 15.8 313.2 6.2 26.3
Other Non Current Assets 1.6 8.7 12.5 15.8 19.2 Forex Effect 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Current Assets 503.6 537.1 929.2 1,031.2 1,165.1 Opening Balance of Cash 11.5 10.5 26.3 339.5 345.7
Total Assets 1,277.0 1,320.0 1,806.1 2,024.0 2,274.2 Closing Balance of Cash 10.5 26.3 339.5 345.7 372.0
Source: Company RHP and Ventura Research

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Disclosures and Disclaimer

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