Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(Kinh tế vmcs) Khủng hoảng Việt Nam
(Kinh tế vmcs) Khủng hoảng Việt Nam
FINAL ASSIGNMENT IN
INTERMEDIATE MACROECONOMICS
2020- 2021
Mục lục
Introduction...............................................................................................3
1. Overview of the economic crisis in Viet Nam......................................3
2. Causes of the economic crisis...............................................................4
3. Impacts 6
3.1 For the market for goods and services.............................................7
3.2 Population, labor, employment........................................................9
3.3 Residential life...............................................................................10
4. Government policies...........................................................................11
4.1 the advantages...............................................................................14
4.2 the challenges and the shortcomings.............................................14
5 Policy responses...................................................................................17
5.1 the decline in GDP growth............................................................17
5.2 the difficulties of small locations..................................................18
5.3 the unemployed rates.....................................................................18
6. Suggestions for the government..........................................................19
7. Conclusion..........................................................................................20
References 22
Introduction
In 2008, the financial crisis broke out that shook the global
economy. After a decade, people still wonder about the game-
changer, and more importantly, how to avoid the same in the
future. According to a speech from Agrarian Reforms of the 20th
Century in Russia: Impacts on Agricultural Sector and Food
Security, the definition for'' economic crisis'' is a sharp
deterioration in the economic state of the country, manifested in a
significant decline in production; violation of existing production
relations; bankruptcy of enterprises; and rising unemployment. The
result of the economic crisis is a decline in the living standards of
the population and a decrease in the real gross national product and
the main source of the crisis was rekindled in the subprime
mortgage market, which spread rapidly on a large scale, eventually
becoming a global crisis and recession. At first, it was just a large
bailout package and resulted in a sudden decline of the economy.
People began to doubt the stability and transparency of the global
banking system, which is so trusted. And this crisis also spread
quickly to many countries around the world, including Vietnam
3
present in many developing economies such as China, India and in
ASEAN and especially Vietnam.
4
not shown signs of recovery). However, the degree of impact
depends on the nature of each item. The US financial crisis will
negatively affect many other economies in the world, especially
the EU and Japan - these are two important export markets of
Vietnam. Due to the impact of the crisis, people in these markets
also had to cut spending, importers were unable to pay due to
financial difficulties. The South will tend to decrease. In fact, in
recent months, with the negative impact of the financial crisis,
Vietnam's exports have begun to show signs of decline, the export
turn over in November has continued to decrease and fell below
the threshold of 5 billion USD/ month. This is the third month that
export turnover has declined. In November 2008, the country's
export turnover was only 4.8 billion USD, down from 5.044 billion
USD in October. In which: Textile and garment kept the turnover
at 780 million USD, footwear increased slightly to 400 million
USD. USD compared to 396 million USD in October 2008.
Several other commodities also declined especially crude oil,
which dropped sharply because oil prices fell by 60% compared to
July 2008 levels. Signs of an economic slowdown have begun to
appear. The financial crisis will lead to an economic recession,
many of Vietnam's strong commodities will decrease in price and
will certainly have a direct impact on export turnover.
For foreign investment capital, including direct investment and
indirect investment
With the current crisis, capital costs become more expensive and
export markets are likely to shrink, capital inflows into Vietnam
are likely to decrease. In addition, in most investment projects in
general and FDI in particular, the loan portion usually accounts for
a large proportion of the total investment capital, so when financial
institutions and banks face difficulties, they will make many loan
contracts that were not signed or could not be disbursed. However,
5
it is forecasted (November 2008) that Vietnam still realizes about
10 billion USD of disbursed capital, equaling 16.2% of registered
capital and increasing by 44% over the same period in 2007.
Through considering FDI inflows in the first 11 months of this
year, it can be seen that most foreign investors are from Asia (13%
from Japan and 67% from other Asian countries), of which
investors are from Europe and the US accounted for a rather
modest proportion of about 5% of the registered capital, nearly 60
billion USD. Therefore, in 2008 Vietnam has a basis to believe that
the implementation of projects registered in 2008 will not face
many difficulties and in 2009 is expected to increase or be kept at
the same level as in 2008.
The general situation due to the financial crisis with difficult jobs,
reduced income, reduced consumption, and the number of
remittances is likely to decline. However, so far, the number of
remittances has increased steadily, expected to reach about 8
billion USD this year, up 60% compared to 2007. However, if the
crisis persists, the decrease in remittances is unlikely. avoidable.
3. Impacts
The operation of the stock market (stock market) will face
difficulties and disadvantages for investors
The financial crisis is increasingly affecting the world financial
market, whereby investors and foreign investment funds will have
more difficulty in raising capital, or they will tend to be cautious.
more in investment decisions when their major markets are
struggling and they can restructure Vietnam's stock market.
There may be a possibility of foreign investors withdrawing capital
from the Vietnamese market to rescue the parent company in major
markets, but this possibility is very small because of the amount of
investment capital of each investor in the market. Vietnam is not
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much and currently; Vietnam is still a safe investment location
with high reliability. Vietnam's stock market is a place with
investment advantages when the macroeconomic situation in
Vietnam is gradually getting better…
Due to the impact of the financial crisis, companies listed on the
stock market will inevitably be adversely affected, especially
exporters, whereby stock prices may decline.
The financial crisis had a strong impact on the psychology of
Vietnamese securities investors, the stock market was immediately
adversely affected because of the concerns of domestic investors.
The psychological factor is quite important, so it is necessary to
have solutions, especially adequate information and propaganda to
strengthen investors' confidence; Limiting excessive concerns that
adversely affect the stock market.
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Initially the economy is at equilibrium E1
P = P1; Y = Y1
Event: grew → Aggregate demand decreases, and aggregate
demand curve shifts to the left.
The economy reaches the new equilibrium at E2
P = P2; Y = Y2
P2 < P1: Price level decreases
Y2 < Y1: Total output decreases
Conclusion: Price level and total output decrease.
8
3.2 Population, labor, employment
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invested sector 1.8 million people, up 18.9%. The unemployment
rate of working-age workers in urban areas is estimated at 4.65%.
10
suffering from hunger increased by 32.7%. Poverty is concentrated
in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous Areas, the North
Central Coast and the Central Coast, and the Central Highlands.
4. Government policies
Faced with the impacts of the global financial crisis, right from the
first quarter of 2008, the Government of Vietnam launched a series
of solutions to prevent and prevent the unpredictable consequences
of the "Financial Storm". Fortunately for Vietnam, it has been
fighting since the beginning of the year. The storm in the first
quarter of 2008 prompted Vietnam to promptly apply reasonable
measures for defense. Macro-economic stabilization measures
have taken effect, inflation has decreased, liquidity between banks
has been enhanced, market liquidity has been ensured, trade
balance has been narrowed, and the budget has been strengthened.
government, tightening public spending, increasing foreign
currency reserves. The turbulence of the world market causes the
price of raw materials to decrease, leading to a reduction in the
burden of the state budget's material price subsidy. Commercial
banks are also supported by many measures of the State Bank. By
November 2008, CPI increased by 20.71%, experts said that CPI in
2008 could not exceed 24% and 2009 will only be at 10 -12%.
However, the potential risk of a financial crisis is very great, the
global financial storm has not yet ended, so it is necessary to
continue taking measures to stabilize the macro-economy, boost
economic production. business and export promotion ... need to be
concerned with drastic direction. Specifically:
Continue to implement 08 groups of solutions to control inflation,
stabilize the macro-economy, ensure social security and
sustainable growth.
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However, the above eight groups of solutions introduced by the
Government from April 2008 up to now, the situation has been
much different, so the implementation of these solutions in the
coming time must have appropriate countermeasures. In our
opinion, we need to focus on the following solutions:
For monetary policy and fiscal policy:
In 2009, it was necessary to apply a controlled loosening monetary
policy to stimulate investment. To contribute to solving the current
difficulties for businesses, especially small and medium-sized
enterprises, banks can support businesses such as debt freezing,
debt rescheduling, and lowering loan interest rates. Along with
that, fiscal policy is also considered for tax exemption and
reduction for manufacturing and exporting enterprises.
Choose a time to widen the exchange rate band, currently at 3%, if
necessary, increase it to 5%.
Strictly manage the free foreign currency trading market to avoid
speculation, leading to the tendency of domestic investors to
withdraw their money into foreign currency, putting pressure on
the exchange rate and foreign currency reserves.
Regularly review and re-evaluate short-term foreign loans of the
Government, banks, and enterprises (including deferred payment
LCs) and portfolio of foreign indirect investments.
Improve financial capacity for banks to retain foreign capital
flows.
The Government needs to study and consider granting quotas for
buying bonds by foreign investors to ensure the control ratio, in
case foreign investors massively withdraw capital by selling bonds.
Continue to tighten public spending, especially on inefficient and
unnecessary projects.
Encourage investment and export:
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Need to find ways to support exports including the capital, interest
rates, taxes, procedures for market expansion. Now is the time to
stimulate investment demand, especially investment in
infrastructure, to stimulate investment in effective projects not only
by budget capital, Government bonds but also by government
bonds. the participation of enterprises, the private sector, and other
economic sectors at home and abroad. Along with stimulating
investment demand, it is necessary to immediately consider
solutions to stimulate consumer demand by lowering bank lending
rates, reducing taxes, and exempting taxes. This will solve the
problem of capital backlog at banks. and reduce pressure on export
growth targets and the domestic market will be stimulated.
Ensuring social security
Implemented by many measures: Unemployment insurance,
support for agriculture, cultivation, livestock, guarantee for small
and medium-sized enterprises to export, and direct support for
vulnerable subjects through the financial storm. main.
Regularly grasp the production and business situation, the financial
situation of State-owned enterprises, SMEs, joint-stock companies,
listed companies, private enterprises... to have appropriate
handling solutions.
Take advantage of opportunities to attract investment capital.
Capital flows around the world will be concentrated in places
where the political and business environment is stable. Vietnam
has this advantage and therefore needs to make good use of this
Renovating the structure of export products and export markets:
Focusing on exporting goods that Vietnam has advantages.
Shifting the export of Vietnamese products to other advantageous
markets (Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America)
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Selective import: This is also an opportunity for Vietnam to take
advantage of the import of modern products and technologies that
developed countries have to sell due to their economic difficulties.
Improve forecasting capacity, ensure timely monitoring of
financial crisis developments in the US and globally to properly
assess and offer appropriate solutions.
Strengthening inspection and supervision, especially monitoring
the operation of commercial banks and financial and credit
institutions.
Proactively prevent economic decline by many solutions such as
stimulating investment demand, stimulating consumption demand,
establishing a credit guarantee fund for small and medium-sized
enterprises…
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economy are low. The macro balances are not stable… The socio-
cultural sectors have some weaknesses, especially education,
training, and health; lifestyle ethics in a degraded section of
society. The environment in many places is being heavily polluted,
natural resources and land have not been well managed, exploited,
and used inefficiently... State management is still weak; the
organization is cumbersome, some cadres and civil servants are
weak in both capacity and quality, the organization is inefficient…
The people's mastery has not been fully promoted; Discipline and
discipline are not strict; corruption and waste are still serious and
have not been repelled. Specifically, as follows:
Firstly, human resources in Vietnam have not met the needs of
industrialization and modernization associated with the
development of the knowledge-based economy, because the policy
of considering the development of education, training, and science
has not been properly implemented. Technology is at the forefront.
Second, the rapid increase of public debt and foreign debt in
Vietnam is a potential risk of socio-economic instability.
Third, the national economic structure still has many unreasonable
points, the manufacturing industry, processing industry, and
infrastructure develop slowly, processing and assembling accounts
for a high proportion.
Fourth, the monetary-credit system in our country is not healthy,
the consequences of high inflation have not been overcome and
there is still a risk of re-inflation.
However, beyond all thanks to timely policies, Vietnam's economy
at the beginning of 2009 has made many outstanding
achievements. If based on the socio-economic goal of 2009 is to
prevent economic decline, to stabilize the macro-economy, and
ensure social security, the results of the solutions implemented
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from December 2008 up to now are achieved, showing the
following aspects:
Firstly, the decline in GDP growth rate has stopped since the first
quarter of 2009 thanks to timely, correct, and relatively
synchronous "rescue" measures in most areas such as social
security, economic consumption preferences, credit support to
maintain production and business, increased state investment in
technical and social infrastructure...
Secondly, although there are still many enterprises, especially
small and medium enterprises, cooperatives, and handicraft
villages, there are still many difficulties, but in general, enterprises
of all economic sectors can maintain production and fishery. In
particular, the scale and growth rate were higher than that of 2008
thanks to short-term credit sources supporting interest rates. There
is no situation of a series of businesses having to close or go
bankrupt as warned at the beginning of 2009. The purchasing
power of the market still grows quite well (increasing by more than
10%, if excluding the price increase factor).
Third, there is no increase in the number of unemployed people in
urban areas. Even now, there is a shortage of laborers in industrial
parks, garments, footwear, construction... Labor demand and
wages tend to increase.
Fourth, export is the sector most affected by the global economic
recession, but the whole year export situation still achieved a
relatively better result than the general situation of the world
market. Export turnover in 2009 was estimated at 56.5 billion
USD, down 9.9% over the same period, but still better than many
countries (down by 20-30%). The trade deficit decreased to 11
billion USD, accounting for 16.5% of export turnover (in 2008 the
corresponding figure was 18 billion USD and 28.8%).
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5. Policy responses
From the financial crisis and the global economic downturn, it can
be seen that the "emerging markets" that have recovered quickly
are effectively exploiting their domestic markets. A prerequisite
for a quick shift from the export market to the domestic market is a
high localization share in the value structure of goods produced in
that country. Given the nature of an economy with a low
proportion of domestically produced goods, it is difficult to
effectively exploit the domestic market. When the Government
issued Decision No. 497/QD-TTG on credit support for rural areas,
it immediately encountered obstacles in terms of "domestic
goods", so the efficiency was very low. The policy of Politburo to
encourage Vietnamese people to prioritize using Vietnamese goods
is correct, but for this policy to bring high results, it is necessary to
reorganize production, build a Vietnamese brand, and improve
health. competition of domestically produced goods. Current
economic policies and solutions need to orient enterprises to invest
in expanding the domestic market and associate this issue with
medium- and long-term credit support for businesses wishing to
renew their machines. equipment, technology, develop new
products, improve competitiveness.
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5.2 The difficulties of small locations
Secondly, although there are still many enterprises, especially
small and medium enterprises, cooperatives, and handicraft
villages, there are still many difficulties, but in general, enterprises
of all economic sectors can maintain production and fishery. In
particular, the scale and growth rate were higher than that of 2008
thanks to short-term credit sources supporting interest rates. There
is no situation of a series of businesses having to close or go
bankrupt as warned at the beginning of 2009. The purchasing
power of the market still grows quite well (increasing by more than
10%, if excluding the price increase factor).
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proportion of produced goods, it is difficult to effectively exploit
the domestic market
19
market and real estate market since April 2009 have shown signs
of warming up.
7. Conclusion
From the impact of the global crisis affecting the US, EU, and
Japanese markets... it was the market's difficulties, when affecting
on Vietnam’s products, there was a time when agricultural exports
fell sharply compared to the time. the highest price of the year:
Rice has decreased by 58%, Rubber has decreased by 48%, Coffee
has grown by 24%... the first months of 2009 compared to 2008
Total export turnover of Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries…
Vietnam decreased 15%.
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(Source from the Statistical Office's announcement at the end of
December 2009)
The impact of the global crisis has made Vietnam's small and
medium enterprises face many difficulties, partly being denied
contracts, slow consumption of products, and increasing
inventories. Furthermore, it is affected by the tightening monetary
policy, limiting the growth of bank credit, making the lending
interest rate higher than the business ability of the business
(borrowing interest rates are constantly being raised and interest
rates for loans are increased from 14% per year (in 2007) and by
20% and 24% per year (in 2010). Although the state bank has set
the ceiling interest rate, they have not achieved results because
commercial banks do not Banks' bad debts tend to increase more
and more. From the above reasons, enterprises are difficult, and the
number of businesses that voluntarily closed and declared
bankruptcy increased by 21.8%. Compared to 2010 and workers
are the victims, the reality is that unemployment is increasing.
Retail sales and service consumption in 2011 only increased by
4%, the lowest growth rate ever. Vietnamese Government has
always had the complete insight in the difficulties and follow the
developments of the international economy in order to have the
timely, precise and synchronous measures to limit the serious
effect of the economic crisis and seize the opportunity to uphold
the country growth potential and promote economic development;
continuing to use the market-based tools, policies to operate the
economy, try to step up the deployment of innovation and
renovation measures; continuing to affirm the renovation and
international integration process, being patient to develop the
cooperation between countries in the region to overcome the
difficulties. Vietnamese Government highly appreciates the
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contribution of international community on Viet Nam’s renovation
and economic development over the past years as well as in the
future.
References
1. Government (2008), Report at the National Assembly Session in
November 2008;
2. Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (Ministry
of Planning and Investment), Quick Report.
3. Vietnam News Agency, General information November 2008.
4. BDCB School of Finance (2008), Results of the Webinar "Wall
Street Financial Crisis: Responses to Asian Economies" organized
by BDCB School of Finance in collaboration with the Financial
Center and Asia-Pacific Development under the Ministry of
Finance of China and the Vietnam Development and Information
Center (VDIC) under the World Bank held on November 27, 2008.
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