MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES

SCHOOL OF LIBERAL AND PERFORMING ARTS

DEPARTMENT OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

TOPIC

EFFECTS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF COVID19 ON THE GAINS OF

RECOVERY FROM CRISIS OF THE FIRST WAVE ON BUSINESS ENTERPRISES
OF KASUBI VILLAGE IN RUBAGA CERNTRE.

BY

NAKALEMBE JOANITAH

19/U/17157/EVE

1900717157

A RESEARCH REPORT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE

REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF BACHELORS’S OF
DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
DECLARATION
I Nakalembe Joanitah, I declare to the best of my knowledge that this piece of work is my
own and has never been submitted for the award of a Degree in Makerere University or any
other University or any other institution. Am wholly accountable for the information
provided in this document.

i
APPROVAL
This urban field work report has been supervised and submitted with the approval of my
supervisor.
NAME ………………………………………………………………………..
Signature…………………………………… Date……………………..

ii
DEDICATION
I dedicate this piece of work to God Almighty for his wisdom and good health throughout my
urban field attachment, my family for their encouragement and financial support, my
colleagues of Development Studies for their cooperation during the urban field attachment.

iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I Highly Acknowledge Those Persons upon their cooperation and support to the completion
of this work. Given that they are too many to be all acknowledged individually, only few will
be mentioned here.

My appreciation goes to my supervisor Dr. Rachael Ddungu whose selfless encouragement,

guidance and attention with high level of humanity enabled me to complete this report with
such less difficulties. The role was so indispensable and instrumental that the success of this
work would not have been without you my supervisor. I also extend my special thanks to the
respondents in Kasubi Village Rubaga Center in Kampala District for availing me with the
relevant information on my topic of study.

Further appreciation goes to my course-mates for their continuous encouragement and

support not only in accomplishing this work but entire stay as a student at Makerere
University.

iv
Contents
DECLARATION i

APPROVAL ii

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

CHAPTER 1 1

1.1 Historical background of the subject of study. 1

1.2 BACK GROUND OF THE STUDY AREA 1

1.3 General objective. 2

1.4 Specific objectives. 2

CHAPTER 2 3

2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW 3

CHAPTER 3 5

3.1 METHODOLOGY 5

3.2 Population study 5

3.3 Sample size. 5

3.4 Sampling methods. 5

3.5 Methods of Data Collection. 6

3.6 Interview method. 6

3.7 Observation method. 6

CHAPTER 4 8

4.0 FINDINGS. 8

Effects on the gain of recovery from the First Wave on the Economic, Social and Human
development. 8

4.1 ECONOMIC EFFECTS 8

4.2 HUMAN EFFECTS 9

4.3 SOCIAL EFFECTS 10

4.4Challenges that were faced during the recovery from the first wave of covid 19 pandemic 10

CHAPTER 5 12

5.1 Conclusion. 12

v
 5.2 Recommendations 13

Reference page, 15

Appendix 16

vi
 CHAPTER 1

1.1 Historical background of the subject of study.

In December 2019 a novel Corona virus emerged in Wuhan China and by February 2020, the
virus had spread to over 150 countries across the globe and as of March 11, 2020, the World
Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of global pandemic citing concerns with
the alarming levels of spread and severity. The World Health Organization called for
governments to take urgent and aggressive action to stop the spread of the virus. Globally as
of April 14, 2020 1873265 cases of Covid19 had been reported including 118854 deaths.
Africa had 15292 cases and 835 deaths. With most cases and deaths occurring in countries
like South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Burkina Faso. This period was the period of
great danger and uncertainty therefore no wonder during this period, numerous countries
were seen responding to the call by enforcing lockdown, banning any public gathering,
encouraging and forcing people to stay home by October 27, 2020. Many had become
resilient and had developed measures to live with the pandemic when people are performing
their different work. Schools had resumed in some countries like: United Kingdom, Uganda
and Tanzania. Public transport too was allowed to operate following the Standard Operating
Procedures (S.O.Ps). But none the less, Covid19 is a tragedy that jeopardized the social,
political and economic spheres of people’s living through still, there has been a lot to learn
from it.

It belongs to a large family of viruses called Corona virus. Although corona virus can affect
both animals and humans, only human corona viruses are known as respiratory infections.
The infections range from mild illness such as common cold to severe illnesses such as
Middle East Respiratory (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. (SARS).

1.2 BACK GROUND OF THE STUDY AREA

(Got from Google failed to get information from the division Lubaga)

Rubaga division also known as Lubaga division is one of the divisions that make up the city.

The division takes its name from Rubaga where the division headquarters are located.

1
Rubaga division lies in the in the western part of the city bordering Wakiso district and to the
south of the division. The eastern boundary of the division is Kampala which is the central
division Kawempe division lies in the north of Rubaga division.

Administratively, the division is made of 13 parishes which 12 have informal settlement

The division is politically headed by a mayor and an urban council whilst the technical team
is headed by the town clerk

Rubaga division has a population of 383216, 53% whom women and 105212 are households.

1.3 General objective.

To explore the effects of Covid 19 on the business enterprises of Kasubi Village in Rubaga
center

1.4 Specific objectives.

To explore the factors that favored the recovery of the business enterprises from the
depression of the first wave of Covid 19 in Kasubi Village Rubaga Centre

To explore the challenges that were faced by business men during the time of the first wave
of Covid 19 in Kasubi Village Rubaga center

To come up with recommendations on how to deal with the social and economic problems
that is caused by Covid 19

2
 CHAPTER 2

2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW

The Pandemic that haunted the world for the last 30 years had several waves occurring where
the disease kept on enforcing its self-emerging as stronger causing more infections and
deaths. According to World Vision (2020), the 1918 – 1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic
although estimates vary, it is believed that it caused an estimated 50 million deaths and
sickened 25-30 percent of the world population.

The size of the population impacted by the Spanish Influenza is hall mark of the pandemic
and also one of the earliest examples of the dangers of the second wave. As data collection
surrounding mortality and infectious diseases was still in its infancy in 1918, specific global
burdens for each wave are difficult to identify. However, the Us Center for disease control
estimates that 28% of the total deaths in U.S was from the influenza pandemic during the
second wave, the highest of all waves according to world vision 2020. Similar patterns were
observed during the second and third waves. The past 130 years has seen other significant
infectious disease outbreaks featuring the patterns of the second wave. Some outbreaks had
two or more waves of varying severity. For other outbreaks, the same well defined or sizable
waves were not necessarily seen, but similar impacts occurred. Frequent series of infections,
travelling between countries and persistent caseloads all extended the 2014-2016 Ebola
outbreaks in West Africa which was its self an extension of the previous Ebola outbreak in
the DRC. The reasons for second waves varied and, in some countries, and in some cases are
still not well understood.

As the country was still nursing the wounds and recovering from shocks caused by the first
wave of the covid19 pandemic, there came another wave of the pandemic which is the second
wave infecting a higher rate and having more deaths ( 16th April 2021, the independent).
Covid19 with its health problems it causes, it also brings along social economic problems and
this is due to the control measures that cripple the economy and make it hard to those who
live on a daily wage to accord a living (Kabahizi 2020). Health wise, according to The
President of Uganda His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni in his State Of the Nation
Address on Sunday 6th June, the second wave came more infectious with stronger variants
including that from South Africa, India variant among others and these are more aggressive

3
and affecting even the young people which was not the case with the first wave. He also
encouraged the masses to go for vaccination on 18th June; a lockdown was re-instated for 42
days. Though the lockdown is the only viable solution to curb the spread of infectious
diseases like Covid19 if no proper cure and a low rate of vaccination, it however comes with
economic crisis with increased levels of unemployment, decreased production of goods, and
reduced demand for produced goods and may cripple some of the small-scale industries or
businesses for goods.

Kabahizi (2020), longer periods of the lockdown, more time of economic stagnation and the
longer the economy will take to get back to normal or may at all fail to gain the rate at which
it was progressing a scenario that happened to countries like Greece after the Great economic
depression. It hold water to note that the economy was growing at 6% in 2019 according to
the speech of the president of Uganda delivered in 2019 (Kabahizi 2020) and it is not worthy
that in the late 2020 from July when the situation was getting back to normal with public
transport re-opened and schools re-opened, the rates of unemployment had reduced as those
employed in the informal sector resumed working at a less difficult and informal sector
reopened back to their places of work. However, with emergence of a new wave, all were
taken back to null in June and this means a lot of the economy struggling to rise up.

4
 CHAPTER 3

3.1 METHODOLOGY
I used various methods to collect information on issues concerning the effects of the second
wave of covid19 on the gains of recovery from crisis of first wave on economic, human and
social development of Kasubi Village in Rubaga center such as: intervention, observation and
others. I sampled out 26 respondents.

3.2 Population study

The research information was got from a number of respondents from different categories
which included the residents of Kasubi village, religious leaders and this because they preach
against the effects of Covid19.

3.3 Sample size.

I sampled out a total of 20 individuals who included business men and women, teachers and
students that live in Rubaga center to find out their views on the possible effects of the
second wave of covid19 on the recoveries from the first wave on business enterprises. I had a
sample of 20 people / individuals on interaction with them due to their fear of spreading
covid19 to them and their own safety to reduce the exposure and interaction with new people.

Categories of respondent Number of respondents

Business men and women 10
Local council Kasubi village 1
Local people 9
Total number 20

3.4 Sampling methods.

The collection of data which was majorly qualitative during the time of an emergency
compelled me to majorly use purposive sampling during the selection of samples. This was
because the gathering of data had to be done with strict observation of the Standard Operating
Procedures due to the rapid spread of the infectious corona virus. I also used Purpose
sampling where I sampled and interviewed the business people because they were some of
those hit so hard by the reinstallation of the total lockdown, the Boda Boda people and the
teachers mostly and also the married people and their children.

5
3.5 Methods of Data Collection.
The methods of data collection are the ways used to obtain the research data from the
respondents in the field about by subjects of study. I employed a variety of data collection
methods to obtain data from the field as put under:

3.6 Interview method.

I made use of interview guides that were from my research questions and research objectives
to get the research data. This included the one of the key informants who was the Chairman
of Kasubi LC1 Chairman whom I trust to be with reliable information about Rubaga center
since he was in observation of how the place was running during the time of the first wave,
he observed the time of recovery and could therefore anticipate the effect of the second wave
of the pandemic on the recovery and on the general social, economic and human development
of people in Rubaga. I also interviewed some of the teachers who told me that the second
wave took them back to a big tragedy where they don’t work; they do not door any private
coaching which they had started in the time of recovery when schools had been allowed to
operate.

The other reason for the use of key informant was to limit the interaction with many
individuals to gain accurate results of the study as well as ensuring my safety from the
pandemic. And another reason why I used the interview method is because it provides
flexibility to the interviewers and this enables them to provide the collect information to the
researcher, it also has a better response rate than the mailed questions, and the people who
cannot read and write also answer the questions, it also helps the researcher to judge the non-
verbal behavior of the respondents, the interviewer can also decide the place for an interview
either in the private or silent place and also the interviewer can also control over the order of
the questions unlike other methods like the questionnaire.

3.7 Observation method.

This is where I observed, saw and noted the back slide in the operation of businesses due to
the limited number of people that were always in as most people had resorted and responded
to the stay home campaign that had little work to do in town due to the reduction in the
number of customers and also saw of businesses including shops and other vendors in the
town leave the town early in order to cape with curfew time. Rubaga center had been a warm
place that hosted many people who came from the nearby areas and within for shopping but
all had reduced due to the enactment of the lockdown as most people were using public

6
means of transport that were stopped to reduce the spread of the second wave. The reasons
why I used the observation method is because it is the most common and the simplest
method of data collection from the field and this is because it does not require much technical
knowledge, it is also the best in providing accurate information because the researcher
observes and sees the right information with the naked eyes.it can also deal with the
phenomena which are not capable of giving verbal information about their behavior, feeling
and activities simply for the reason that they cannot speak.

7
 CHAPTER 4

4.0 FINDINGS.

Effects on the gain of recovery from the First Wave on the Economic, Social and
Human development.

4.1 ECONOMIC EFFECTS

Given the current situation, the projection of economic growth in FY2019 / 2020 has declined
from 6.0 percent to half the anticipated value. This was due to the first wave of the pandemic
that led to the inaction of a lockdown, drawing from that therefore, the economic growth
projections are to increasingly be distorted due to the same tools that had been used for the
first wave being used leading to loss of revenues at a domestic and national level.

The biggest impact was on the service sector. Travel restrictions are already affecting the
tourism sector including hotels, accommodation and transportation. Supply chain disruptions
are hampering trade and this is expected to continue until the virus is contained at the global
level. In addition to the transport service sector, the other essential services like the health
services are highly affected by the second wave that was so aggressive killing big masses and
causing a shortage in the hospital supplies leading to the diversion of funds from other
services.

There was loss of income both in homes and national level and also the rent income. Most
people were poor in that most of them were unable to cater for their families and also the
landlords were not earning since most of their tenants were also not earning hence increasing
poverty.

Might lead to total collapse of some businesses especially the small-scale businesses. This is
because these people were spending without earning and the resource, I got shows that these
people were using their capital to feed families and some of them their businesses were no
more due to lack of capital. There are also limited customers. This is as a result of closure of
the transport means. This means that people were unable to acquire commodities from the
market hence reducing the sellers’ earnings compared to what they used to earn before.

There was an immediate loss of employment especially for those in the public transport
sector, tourism and hospitality industry and the entertainment industry. Most people lost their
jobs and those that had them were also earning less following the lockdown that led to the

8
closure of what was considered non-essential businesses. Following the already existing high
level of unemployment and poverty in the country, the pandemic’s second wave has
aggravated these challenges.

Increasing public debts. Major short falls in revenue collection pushed the government into
high levels of borrowing to cover its fiscal deficits for both FY2019 / 2020 and FY2020 /
2021. If this continues, it will contribute to further increase in the total public debt which has
grown from 22.4%in 2020 to a predicted 41% GDP by the end of the FY2019 / 2020.as a
result, Uganda debt servicing commitments will continue increasing. Arising external public
loan financing requires a high commitment fees and non-concessional domestic borrowing
attracts huge interests’ payment and away from service delivery or development spending
that could benefit people living in poverty.

4.2 HUMAN EFFECTS

The second wave of covid19 has crippled the education sector. This is because there is no
way the government can go onto reopen when the virus is still in existence. In addition to
that, the online and other mechanisms that include the use of radio and televisions have not
been effective enough to keep the education still at a good standard not forgetting the limited
mode of assessment with the use of e learning in the country and this has both short and long
term effects on the future of the young people and on the education sector. This is because
those that acquire loans were unable to pay them simply because they were not working
hence unable to pay the loans.

The wide spread / wide transmission of the virus overwhelms the health system to
unprecedented level and causes severe morbidity and mortality. Following the experience
from advanced economies like Italy, it is evident that Uganda’s health care, city, staffing,
challenges and limitations of medical supplies could face more impediments.

According to the health sector performance report 2018/2019, there are only 187 professional
health workers per 1000 people, below the national target of 2.28. At this rate, one nurse is
expected to serve 2967 people while a doctor is expected to serve 23700 people.
Additionally, Uganda currently has only 55 (fifty-five) functional ICU beds resulting in
approximately 1.3 ICU beds per million Ugandans. (Atumanya……. 2020). Beyond door
strain, a severe covid19 outbreak would place on the health sector, the anticipated rise on
hospitalization and deaths would severely impact productivity across sectors employment and
earnings as well as quality of life and human capital in the short and long run.

9
 4.3 SOCIAL EFFECTS
Unequal targeting of Covid19 response measures. Over 8 million Ugandans (19.7) live
below the poverty line. However, the government’s Covid19 relief programs like food and
other relief aid have been directed primarily at the 1.5 million people living in urban areas in
Kampala and Wakiso districts rather than those in rural areas. Similarly, the government’s
response measures are focused on the formal sector, meaning that in the informal sector and
are unable to access government measures like loans and tax benefits. This is likely to cause
further inequality between rural and urban populations and exacerbate poverty and
vulnerability.

Disruption of service delivery in health and other sectors. Due to Covid19, Ugandans living
in poverty who rely on government’s free health care programs have experienced a reduced
access to Primary Health Care. As a result, Uganda has registered an increase in the number
of preventable deaths during child birth and in other health emergencies and an increased
occurrence of death due to preventable diseases like malaria. Access to family planning and
other health care programs has also been compromised.

There is increased school dropout due to delay in opening schools by the government. This
has increased school drop outs in Kasubi village since most parents do not have money to
take their back to schools even when they are to reopen. The drop is both voluntary and
involuntary as some of the boys have engaged in manual paid employment have higher
chances of not getting back to schools and remain working in addition in addition to the
anticipated lack funds to take the learners back to schools.

4.4Challenges that were faced during the recovery from the first wave of Covid 19
pandemic
High transport costs were also another challenge during the recovery. noting with the concern
of the public about the raising prices of the consumer goods, the business people in Kasubi
village, cited a distortion in the transport system during the aftermath of the first wave. This
was attributed to the costly processes that had to be followed by the that included testing for
covid at the border and the compulsory quarantines for the truck drivers.

High interests on the loans, banks did not favor the people that acquire loans and the high
interest rates levied on the loans also gave hard times to pay back bank loans.it holds to note
that the central bank responded to the pandemic by reducing the bank rate to 1%, the

10
commercial banks and the lending agencies kept their interests high which is a disincentive
for acquiring borrowed capital.

High taxes. This was also another challenge because those that remained working were
paying high taxes yet they were earning less. In addition to that, the government did not
consider scrapping of the taxes, the business people had to pay even the taxes for a period
they were not working. This therefore crippled the business sector and distorted the socio-
economic recovery in the aftermath of the first wave.

11
 CHAPTER 5

5.1 Conclusion.
The livelihood and economy reviving from the effects of the first wave with the opening up
of business though with half capacity operation, the transport sector allowed to operate with
half capacity, schools reopened under a blended system of learning for higher institutions of
learning and many other businesses reopened, and part of the revival drew basis from the
inventions that arose like the increased online business and deliveries and plus donor
agencies had incurred in the recovery process. Though the economy had regained to the level
as it was before the pandemic, emerged the second wave in the early 2021, aggressive and
having a higher rate of infection.

The impact of the second wave of the pandemic could be more devastating both on human
development and the recovery from the first wave of the pandemic due to its direct and
indirect effects. Apart wave apart from causing the direct suffering due to the virus itself,
there are associated health implications due to the increased deaths from other diseases due to
the limited means through which medication is got due to the banning of public transport and
diversion of funds and this has affects most those that previously had complications like the
mental disorders, HIV, and other diseases like Malaria (Oxfam, 2020; UNDP-Uganda,2020).

The lockdown measures put for the restriction of the rates of the spread of the virus have
embedded effects on the economy. The most affected sectors; tourism and travel, public
transport employ a big number of people and their closure therefore meant unemployment for
millions of people hence loss of both subsistence and surplus and the extended lockdown is
likely to rise the levels of poverty with even the middle class at risk of falling into poverty or
insecurity ( UNDP – Uganda,2020 ). Development initiatives ( 2020), over 8 million
Ugandans live in poverty and with the government distributing relief aid to not even a million
people, the impact of the relief aid is limited and not to reach out to all the needy not
forgetting that the lockdown pushes many into poverty.

In addition, the education sector is badly hit by the control measures that make many to bring
their operations to halt due to the higher costs of the online learning system and being that it
cannot be accessed by many students. Therefore, this brings us to a consensus that the second
wave of the pandemic not only makes a reversal of the recoveries from the crisis of the first
wave but also is a hindrance to economic, social and human development as it has

12
devastating short term and long-term implications. Though with it, came the realization for
increased digitalization of trade with companies like safe boda engaging in making of more
deliveries as a means to remain in operation.

5.2 Recommendations
Industrialization should be encouraged to enable people to acquire jobs in order to earn a
living. This can be done through putting in place incentives to attract the local and internal
investors into the country with the setting up of the import substitution industries to reduce on
the money spent in the importation of goods, and increase on the foreign and tax base of the
government.

Reduction on the interests charged by banks and money lenders in order to enable people to
acquire loans and start up their own businesses. It should be noted that in time of crisis, there
is need for creation of incentives and pathways to allow the local businesses to thrive and
therefore the government should avail loan capital to the people at reduced interest rates
through the micro finance centers to bypass the exploitation of the private lenders.

Urban and formal sector learning measures need to be applied in a way that is clear and
inclusive in a short, medium and long term plan for mitigation, recovery and resilient
building . This is the only way to ensure that the damaging impacts of the severe lockdown
and other Covid19 response measures on the economy, people’s live hoods and welfare are
properly documented and addressed equitably.

A clear government response strategy is needed to ensure adequate attention and protection
for the poorest and most vulnerable sections of the population. This will protect against the
negative impact of the pandemic on the health and livelihoods of the most vulnerable. This
can be done through increased targeted social protection measures like reach out programs in
the communities to ensure access to the basic services and increased giving of grants to the
vulnerable to help improve on the livelihood

The F Y 2020/2021 Funding allocation to pro-poor sectors needs to reflect sector needs and
accommodate additional constraints imposed by Covid19 (Development iniatives,2020). This
will enable the government to for example fast-track the expansion of social protection
programs and serve as more direct, sustainable and inclusive mechanism for protecting
people living in poverty.

13
The draw backs of restrictive Covid19 response measurers should be documented across
sectors and used as lessons for designing responses in future crisis. This will prevent in
adverted loss of many lives from existing and manageable conditions due to poor response to
crisis in future.

There is need for re shaping of the education sector. It ought to be noted that from the very
onset of the pandemic even from the time of the first wave, the education sector is one that
was highly affected, therefore the different stakeholders together with the government need to
discuss and come up with a new mode and encourage all the stakeholders to embrace the
artificial learning through the use of the internet to prepare the learners in a short term to deal
with other possible waves that might occur and also handle any future emergencies.

There is also need for the government to make the health sector a priority, increase its
facilitation and funding. Having it in much the health emergencies like the covid pandemic
hit higher the areas that have weak health systems, the government should therefore resort to
the development of a strong health sector and equip it with supplies to improve on the
livelihood of the people even in a past Covid era.

14
Reference page,
1. World Vision (2020), Covid19 aftershocks: deadly waves. Multiple, potentially
deadlier, waves of covid 19 continue to threaten millions of lives if leaders fail to
priotise vulnerable people everywhere.
2. Development initiatives (2020), social economic impact of covid 19 in Uganda. How
has the government allocated public expenditure for FY2020/21/ devinit.org?
3. UNDP-Uganda (2020), socio-economic impact of covid 19 in Uganda; short-,
medium-, and long – term impacts on poverty dynamics and SDGs using scenario
analysis and system dynamics modeling.
4. Peterman A, A. Potts, M. Odonnell, K. Thompson, N. Shah, S. Oertelt Prigione, and
N. Van Gelder (2020). Pandemics and violence against women and children. Working
paper 528. Washington DC: Centre for global development.
5. Cadreen Birungi Kabahizi et al (2020), Uganda’s road to economic recovery post
covid 19. Uganda Christian University Mukono, African Policy Centre PB002
6. Dr. Erika Fraser (2020). Impact of covid 19 pandemic on violence against women
and children: UKaid from the department of international development. VAWG
Helpdesk Research report NO. 284

15
Appendix
1. Kyomuhendo Winnie 0706071998
2. Namatovu Florence 0702809633
3. Nakabugo Justine 0703073392
4. Nansubuga Joan 0706982119
5. Nalugo Rihanna 0752024870
6. Phiona 0701323266
7. Kawalya Hakim 0754168360
8. Shamim 0707845032
9. Aisha 0700431849
10. Matovu Rashid 0750364810
11. Namatovu Scovia 0705512473
12. Kanyike Alvin 0753663647
13. Nansubuga Milly 0701538092
14. Kikabi Blasio 0779508815
15. Brenda Namirembe 0706719556
16. Dr Gertrude 0703480220
17. Ssekikubo David 0775909077
18. Ssekikubo Fred 0752024870
19. Kabugo Samuel 0774562188
20. Nanyunja Brenda 0759408368
21. Namitalo Hope 0706367897
22. Bukenya Patrick 0704353690

16