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Five modes of grey zone

Deniable attacks Information operations Use of proxy forces Economic coercion Territorial encroachment

Scenario: Cyber-attack on utilities Scenario: Drones shut down airport Scenario: Foreign electoral intervention Scenario: Proxy fighting force enters city Scenario: Adversary purchases and Scenario: Adversary seizes sea lane
turns off oil refinery
Existing Adapted Existing Adapted Existing Adapted Existing Adapted Existing Adapted
Existing Adapted
- Manual pen testing - Machine learning driven - Eyewitness reports - 3D radar for early detection - Manual fact checking to - Human-machine teaming to - Drones for visual surveillance - Drones for signals intelligence - Radar tracking of vessels - UAV signals intelligence to
- Dependence on national grid pen testing - Hard kill measures - Directed RF counter identify disinformation identify disinformation - Detectable explosives to - Undetectable directed energy - Military force employed to - Capability overmatch deters in area assess vessels’ intent
- Dependence on mobile - Standalone power generation (nets and projectiles) drone system disable comms weapons to disable comms seize control adversary from initial - Manned patrol vessels - Covert unmanned vehicles
networks and storage purchase conduct reconnaissance operated at standoff distance
- Encrypted push to talk
handsets

Scenario: Assassination by poisoning Scenario: False text messages Scenario: Terrorist attack on office Scenario: Annexation
Scenario: EM attack on bank of sovereign territory
Existing Adapted Existing Adapted Existing Adapted
Existing Adapted - Disparate information shared - Disparate information fused - Unsecured personal devices - Secure handsets - Manual web monitoring - AI-based web monitoring
Existing Adapted
- Manual CCTV monitoring - Smart sensing and AI-driven - 4G networks - Armed response teams for - Novel covert weapons to
- GNSS clocks - Atomic clocks - Few signals intelligence - Multiple intelligence sources
CCTV review hostage situations reduce risk to hostages
- Manual identification - EM detection system sources fuse data to build
of attack - Destroy enemy infrastructure tactical picture
using explosives or - Covert disabling of enemy
projectiles infrastructure using directed
energy weapons
handsets

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