A study on the relationship between

Average Annual Precipitation,

Average Annual Mean Temperature
and Rice Production Volume in India
from 2010 to 2020

Submitted by
Sakthi B
20/UECA/006
 1. ABSTRACT

India is the world's second-largest producer of rice, and the largest exporter of rice in the
world. It is generally considered that rice production was associated with massive limiting
factors, such as variety, climate, terrain, and soil properties. This study tries to identify the
influence of selected climatic variables of average annual mean temperature and precipitation
(independent variables) on rice production (dependent variable). This study is pertaining to
India from 2010 to 2020. Regression analysis is used to study the relationship between
variables and ANOVA is used to study whether the relationship is significant or not. The
study shows that temperature and rice production have a negative relationship and there is
positive relationship between precipitation and rice production.

2. INTRODUCTION

Rice is one of the most important food crops and feeds more than 60 per cent population of
India. Rice crop needs a hot and humid climate. It is best suited to regions which have high
humidity, prolonged sunshine and an assured supply of water. The average temperature
required throughout the life period of the crop ranges from 21 º Celsius to 37º Celsius.
Maximum temp which the crop can tolerate 40º Celsius to 42º Celsius. Rice is mainly grown
in rain-fed areas that receive heavy annual rainfall of more than 100 cm. As a complex carb,
rice is the primary source of energy for more than half of the world's people. Depending on
the strain of rice, it can contain respective amounts of fibre, protein, vitamin B, iron and
manganese. It plays an important role against malnutrition.
Given the details, through this study I have tried to analyse how the changing climatic
conditions has affected rice production in India from 2010 to 2020.
“Rice is highly vulnerable to climate change, so factors such as sea level, salinity and
temperature rises will affect rice production,” says agricultural consultant and researcher
Wyn Ellis. Indian agriculture scientists have found that rising temperature will adversely hit
rice productivity in the country. I have tried to check the reliability of this finding through my
study by taking climatic variables such as precipitation (in millimetre) and temperature (in
Celsius) to understand its influence in the Rice Production Volume (in million metric tons) in
India over the last few years, that is from 2010 to 2020.

3. OBJECTIVE AND HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY

The objective of this study is to

 Identify the relationship between Average Annual Temperature, Average Annual
Precipitation and Rice Production Volume.
 Indian agriculture scientists have found that rising temperature will adversely hit rice
productivity in the country. To check the reliability of this finding.

Hypothesis of the Study:

1. H0: Null Hypothesis-There is no statistically significant relationship between Rice
production volume and selected climatic variables of average annual mean temperature and
average annual precipitation.
Ha: Alternate Hypothesis-There is a statistically significant relationship between Rice
production volume and selected climatic variables of average annual mean temperature and
average annual precipitation.
2. H0: Null Hypothesis: Rice production is independent of climatic variables of average
annual mean temperature and average annual precipitation.
Ha: Alternate Hypothesis: Rice production is dependent on climatic variables of average
annual mean temperature and average annual precipitation.

4. SCOPE/ NEED OF THE STUDY

I choose this topic to understand the impact of climate change in food production and to make
the calculations easier I took specifically the impact of average annual mean temperature and
average annual precipitation on Rice Production Volume in India.
This study’s research scope is that it helps in empirically proving the effects of temperature
and precipitation on rice production, forecast or estimate future possibilities, formulate
economic policies to regulate the impact.

5. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Variables considered: The variables considered are Rice Production Volume, Observed
Average Annual Mean Temperature, Observed Average Annual Precipitation of India.

Sources of Data: The data is collected by using secondary sources relating to the selected
variables. Annual data is collected for a period of 11 years i.e., from 2010 to 2020.

Model: In this study classical linear regression model is used for data analysis. The model is
presented as follows,
Rice Production Volume = β0 + β1 (Observed average annual mean temperature) +
β2(Observed average annual precipitation).

The Classical linear regression model (CLRM) is constructed based on few

assumptions. They are:
o Values of independent variables are fixed, independent variables are non-stochastic,
there should be variability between the independent variables.
o Zero mean value of the disturbances. In the population regression function or an
econometric model there will be the presence of disturbance terms. This assumption
says that the sum of average of the variables will be equal to zero.
o Assumption of homoscedasticity; equal dispersion of dependent variable
o Zero covariance between disturbance term and independent variable, and no
autocorrelation between two disturbance terms.
 o The number of observations should be greater than the number of parameters
(population regression function) or estimators (sample regression function).
Analysis procedure: The data collected from secondary sources is analysed using data
analysis feature in Microsoft Excel. The regression analysis for the variables of Rice
Production Volume, Observed Average Annual Mean Temperature, Observed Average
Annual Precipitation of India for years from 2010 to 2020 was carried out in excel for this
study. The findings of which are provided and interpreted in following sub topics.

6. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Table 1. REGRESSION ANALYSIS

MODEL SUMMARY

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.384847913
R Square 0.148107916
Adjusted R Square -0.064865105
Standard Error 8.780985097
Number of Observations 11

ANOVA
 Source df SS MS F Significance
F
Regression 2 107.2432967 53.6216483 0.6954304 0.52666969
5 1 6
Residual 8 616.8455942 77.1056992
8
Total 10 724.0888909      

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 445.810055 292.8488877 1.52232114 0.16642654

8

Observed average annual mean -13.85207685 11.77053143 - 0.2730838

temperature (in Celsius) 1.17684379
3
 Observed average annual 0.005592102 0.031886426 0.17537564 0.86514208
precipitation (in millimetre) 3

The table specifies the regression equation as

Rice Production Volume= 445.810055 -13.85207685(Observed average annual mean
temperature) + 0.005592102 (Observed average annual precipitation).
445.810055 is β0 which is the intercept value.
-13.85207685 = β1 which is the slope coefficient of Rice Production Volume with respect to
Observed average annual mean temperature and 0.005592102 is β2 which the slope
coefficient of Rice Production Volume with respect to Observed average annual precipitation.
R square is the coefficient of determination.

7. INTERPRETATION

The table specifies the regression equation as

Rice Production Volume= 445.810055 -13.85207685(Observed average annual mean
temperature) +0.005592102 (Observed average annual precipitation), for eleven observations.
When observed average annual mean temperature and observed average annual precipitation
is zero, the Rice Production volume would be on an average 446 million metric tons.
When average annual mean temperature increases by 1 per cent, rice production volume
decreases by approximately 13.8 per cent. This shows that there is negative relationship
between average annual mean temperature and rice production volume.
When average annual precipitation increases by 1 per cent, rice production volume increases
by approximately 0.5 per cent.
R square is the coefficient of determination which is = 0.148107916 that is, 14 percent
changes in rice production volume is explained by the independent variables which are
observed average annual mean temperature and observed average annual precipitation.
The standard error = 8.780985097 which may have arisen due to sampling errors. The
standard error tells how accurate the mean of any given sample from that population is likely
to be compared to true population.
ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) table helps in testing the overall significance of the model. It
helps in rejecting or accepting the hypothesis stated earlier (See subtopic 3 – objective and
hypothesis of the study).
Testing the hypothesis at 5% significance level
Calculated F value = 0.69543041
Table F value = 19.371
When table value of F is greater than calculated F value Null Hypothesis will be accepted,
that is at 5% significance level there is no statistically significant relationship between Rice
production volume and selected climatic variables of average annual mean temperature and
average annual precipitation.
Testing the hypothesis at 1% significance level
Calculated F value = 0.69543041
Table F value = 99.374
When table value of F is greater than calculated F value Null Hypothesis will be accepted,
that is at 1% significance level there is no statistically significant relationship between Rice
production volume and selected climatic variables of average annual mean temperature and
average annual precipitation.
The F test has been used to test the significance of the model. The significance F value is
0.526669696 which is greater than 0.50 (at 95% significance level) and 0.1 (at 99%
significance level). So, we accept the null hypothesis, that is there is no statistically
significant relationship between Rice production volume and selected climatic variables of
average annual mean temperature and average annual precipitation.
P value is a statistical measurement used to validate a hypothesis against observed data. The
coefficient of Observed average annual mean temperature (in Celsius) is 0.2730838 and
coefficient of Observed average annual precipitation (in millimetre) is 0.86514208. Both the
coefficients are statistically insignificant at 95% and 99% significance levels since the P
value is greater than 0.05 and 0.01 at respective significance levels.

8. CONCLUSION
I have tried to understand the relationship of Rice Production Volume with observed values
of average annual mean temperature and average annual precipitation in India from 2010 to
2020. The findings are that there is no statistically significant relationship between the
variables, which is understood with the help of ANOVA and with the help of regression
model I can verify the statement - Indian agriculture scientists have found that rising
temperature will adversely hit rice productivity in the country. According to me based on this
study the rising temperature will hit the rice productivity in the country. I cannot verify
whether it will hit adversely or not, but I believe that we can rely to the statement or finding
given by the Indian agriculture scientists.
With this study, I was able to understand the use of Microsoft Excel for data analysis, the
procedure of using the data analysis option in it and analyse and interpret the finding.
The limitations of this study are that the model is not clearly specified and this sample does
not represent the total population which is evident from the very less value of R square.

9. REFERENCES
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/india/climate-data-historical
Data of Observed Average Annual Precipitation and Observed Average Annual Mean
Temperature of India from 2010 to 2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1140236/india-production-volume-of-rice/
Production volume of rice in India from financial year 2010 to 2020.