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Confidence Intervals Exercise: Goal of Assignment
Confidence Intervals Exercise: Goal of Assignment
Confidence Intervals ‐ Exercise
When assessing process performance we very rarely have access to population data. Instead we use sample
statistics to determine process performance. However, sample statistics are only estimates of population
parameters, so there is uncertainty in these sample estimates. Confidence intervals allow us to express this
uncertainty to estimate the range of the population parameter based on the sample.
Use confidence intervals to baseline process performance.
Goal of Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is to give you experience of creating and interpreting confidence intervals for
variable and attribute data.
Assignment 1
A training organization is examining its enrollment process as recent customer feedback suggests that it takes too
long to actually enrol their students in the online portal. The improvement team decide to collect some data to
baseline the current process performance of time to process enrollments via the portal. Their first step is to assess
the measurement system for the enrollment records which are stored in a database. Once they verified that this
automated measuring process is not a source of variation they exam 200 records and calculate the associated
enrollment times.
Create a graphical summary of the course enrollment times.
What is the 95% confidence interval for the mean enrollment time?
What is the 95% confidence interval for the median enrollment time?
What practical conclusion can you draw from these calculations?
Assignment 2
A client of the training organisation has also raised concerns about their students failing to complete
exam requirements. The client services director asks one of the co‐ordinators to provide details on the
current exam pass rate. The co‐ordinator pulls 200 records from the online portal and uses these as the
basis for his report to the director.
Calculate the proportion of students that have passed their exams (1=Pass)
o Hint: Use Stat > Tables > Tally Individual Variables
What is the 90% confidence interval for the percentage of exam passes?
What should the co‐ordinator report back to the director in practical terms?
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Additional file(s) that may be required for assignment:
CourseStatistics.mtw
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Confidence Intervals – Solution (Minitab
16)
Assignment 1
Create a graphical summary of the course enrollment times:
We can create a graphical summary using Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary. Select
TImeToProcessEnrollments as the variable to chart. Ensure that the confidence level is set to 95%:
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Page 3 of 12
Minitab will return the following chart:
What is the 95% confidence interval for the mean enrollment time?
The graphical summary shows that the estimated mean time to process enrollments is 15.35 hours. It also shows
that the 95% confidence interval for the mean is 13.48 to 17.22 hours.
What is the 95% confidence interval for the median enrollment time?
The graphical summary shows that the estimated median time to process enrollments is 11.29 hours. It also shows
that the 95% confidence interval for the median is 10.24 to 13.09 hours.
What practical conclusion can you draw from these calculations?
The graphical summary shows us that the data is not normally distributed. It is skewed to the right which makes
sense since there is a hard stop in terms of a minimum length of time that it takes to physically process an
enrollment. We cannot process an enrollment in less than 0.45 hours or 27 minutes. Since the data is not normally
distributed we should consider the median as giving us the best indication of the central tendency of this process.
The best estimate for the median time taken to process an enrollment is 11.29 hours. As this is only an estimate
based on a sample we know that the true value can be higher or lower. We are 95% sure that the true median lies
between 10.24 and 13.09 hours.
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Assignment 2
Calculate the proportion of students that have passed their exams (1=Pass):
We can summarize the result using Stat > Table > Tally Individual Values. Select ExamPasses as the variable and
ensure that the boxes are checked to display counts and percents:
Minitab will return the following information in the session window:
This show us that 60.5% of the 200 student records examined show exam passes.
What is the 90% confidence interval for the percentage of exam passes?
Minitab can calculate the confidence interval for proportions based on the summary or raw data. Select Stat >
Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion and enter the summarized data from the results of the tally table. Remember to click
on the options button to select a confidence interval of 90%, rather than the default of 95%.
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Minitab will return the following information in the session window:
This shows that the estimated proportion for exam passes is 60.5%. It also shows that the 90% confidence interval
for the proportion is between 54.5% and 66.3%.
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Alternatively we could have used the raw data and selected samples in columns using the variable ExamPasses.
This would have returned the following details in the session window without the need to tally the individual
values first.
What should the co‐ordinator report back to the director in practical terms?
The best estimate for the proportion of exam passes is 60.5%. As this is only an estimate based on a sample we
know that the true value can be higher or lower. We are 90% sure that the true proportion lies between 54.5% and
66.3%. The co‐ordinator should inform the director that there is potential cause for concern as the number of
students passing their exams could be as low as 54.5%, although he is 90% confident it will lie between this and
66.3%.
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Page 7 of 12
Confidence Intervals – Solution (Minitab
17)
Assignment 1
Create a graphical summary of the course enrollment times:
We can create a graphical summary using Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary. Select
TImeToProcessEnrollments as the variable to chart. Ensure that the confidence level is set to 95%:
© LMG. All rights reserved. No portion may be copied, rewritten, reproduced, modified or used to create any derivative works.
Page 8 of 12
Minitab will return the following chart:
What is the 95% confidence interval for the mean enrollment time?
The graphical summary shows that the estimated mean time to process enrollments is 15.35 hours. It also shows
that the 95% confidence interval for the mean is 13.48 to 17.22 hours.
What is the 95% confidence interval for the median enrollment time?
The graphical summary shows that the estimated median time to process enrollments is 11.29 hours. It also shows
that the 95% confidence interval for the median is 10.24 to 13.09 hours.
What practical conclusion can you draw from these calculations?
The graphical summary shows us that the data is not normally distributed. It is skewed to the right which makes
sense since there is a hard stop in terms of a minimum length of time that it takes to physically process an
enrollment. We cannot process an enrollment in less than 0.45 hours or 27 minutes. Since the data is not normally
distributed we should consider the median as giving us the best indication of the central tendency of this process.
The best estimate for the median time taken to process an enrollment is 11.29 hours. As this is only an estimate
based on a sample we know that the true value can be higher or lower. We are 95% sure that the true median lies
between 10.24 and 13.09 hours.
© LMG. All rights reserved. No portion may be copied, rewritten, reproduced, modified or used to create any derivative works.
Page 9 of 12
Assignment 2
Calculate the proportion of students that have passed their exams (1=Pass):
We can summarize the result using Stat > Table > Tally Individual Values. Select ExamPasses as the variable and
ensure that the boxes are checked to display counts and percents:
Minitab will return the following information in the session window:
This show us that 60.5% of the 200 student records examined show exam passes.
What is the 90% confidence interval for the percentage of exam passes?
Minitab can calculate the confidence interval for proportions based on the summary or raw data. Select Stat >
Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion and enter the summarized data from the results of the tally table. Remember to click
on the options button to select a confidence interval of 90%, rather than the default of 95%.
© LMG. All rights reserved. No portion may be copied, rewritten, reproduced, modified or used to create any derivative works.
Page 10 of 12
Minitab will return the following information in the session window:
This shows that the estimated proportion for exam passes is 60.5%. It also shows that the 90% confidence interval
for the proportion is between 54.5% and 66.3%.
© LMG. All rights reserved. No portion may be copied, rewritten, reproduced, modified or used to create any derivative works.
Page 11 of 12
Alternatively we could have used the raw data and selected samples in columns using the variable ExamPasses.
This would have returned the following details in the session window without the need to tally the individual
values first.
What should the co‐ordinator report back to the director in practical terms?
The best estimate for the proportion of exam passes is 60.5%. As this is only an estimate based on a sample we
know that the true value can be higher or lower. We are 90% sure that the true proportion lies between 54.5% and
66.3%. The co‐ordinator should inform the director that there is potential cause for concern as the number of
students passing their exams could be as low as 54.5%, although he is 90% confident it will lie between this and
66.3%.
© LMG. All rights reserved. No portion may be copied, rewritten, reproduced, modified or used to create any derivative works.
Page 12 of 12