Analyze House Price For King County

Analyze House Price for King County, Washington
Hatem Ben Aghil
Business Problem: Question - What will be the predicted value of home sale value in King
County?
Data Source: The most significant obstacle i encountered was while cleaning our original dataset.
Originally, the data I planned to use was from data.boston.gov but quickly realized this dataset
needed a large amount of work, not enough variables, and data id old. I chose new cleaned data-
set to work on instead of Boston city data-set. The new data-set for “King County” in
Washington state.
The new data-set source https://www.kaggle.com/harlfoxem/housesalesprediction/data.
Preliminary Work: Planned Analysis: I have to build a simple linear regression and multiple
linear regression models that i use to predict the value of the house King county, WA houses.
I’ve applied variables necessary to running a graphical analysis before I jumped into the model.
Displaying the information will provide insight that could be correlated, with the primary goal of
determining if these variables impact each other or just move in the same direction.
Risk assessment: Predictive analytics projects come with a variety of risks about the type of
analysis being done. These will impact the ability to assess the data available and whether the
variables selected are impacting the value of home prices. Overfitting is a huge potential issue as
with so many different variables it would be easy to assume we can predict an exact amount. It
will be important to recognize trends in the variables based on variables such as geographic
location in the city, the population of the city and jobs forecasted. Accurately predicting prices
relies on a lot of macroeconomic information which are based on their assumptions and may be
difficult to include in our analysis. Data will be plentiful, but it will be essential to identify
critical data which will drive the report.
1. Documenting your business problem
Home prices are continually shifting. The reality of not knowing whether the price for a potential
house is going to increase or not, makes it extremely challenging for future homeowners to plan,
be prepared and ready, timely and financially. This factor plays into the role of influencing the
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assumption of how hard it is to buy a house since home seekers need to have a long checklist of
what is required to buy a house. Being able to predict the fluctuation of home prices should not
be one of the tasks in that checklist. In fact, not only future homeowners are ones who are
interested; renters, investors, and businesses will all be benefited from the outcome of this
project.
Predicting house price is not an easy task. In fact, it is very challenging and requires the
exploration of many factors to be able to come up with the findings. For this project, we are
using a single dataset from Kaggle, ‘kc_house_data.csv.’ This dataset contains house sale prices
for King County, which includes Seattle, between May 2014 and May 2015. Our team aims for
exploring the correlation between home price and other attributes in the dataset to come up with
the final findings and prediction. Additionally, we are not taking into consideration any potential
unique events in the real estate world or any macroeconomics factors since it is out of scope and
we don’t have the right resources for this task.
2.Current Status of Data Collection and Obstacles

The most significant obstacle we encountered was while cleaning our original dataset. Initially
the data we planned to use was from data.boston.gov but quickly realized this dataset required an
extensive amount of work to use within r-studio (formatting variances, strange outliers which
appears incorrect). We chose a new city to work on instead of Boston city. The new city is “King
County” in Washington state.
The new data-set source https://www.kaggle.com/harlfoxem/housesalesprediction/data.
3.Basic methodology
To answer the project question which is, what will be house Price for King County, Washington?
I have to build a simple regression model that I use to predict the value of the house for house
Price for King County. We have to understand the variables involved by running a graphical
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analysis before we jump into the model. Displaying the information will provide insight that
could be correlated, with the primary goal of determining if these variables impact each other or
just move in the same direction. The following graphs will use in our analysis: scatter plot and
bar charts. The second step is to analyze house Price for King County, Washington by applying
Linear regression analysis to explore the correlation between the sale price and other variables in
the dataset and Multiple Linear regression analysis to examine the relation between the rate and
the whole variables in a model.
4.Findings
#Data Summary
>
> summary(kc_house_data)
id date price bedrooms
Min. :1.000e+06 20140623T000000: 142 Min. : 75000 Min. : 0.000
1st Qu.:2.123e+09 20140625T000000: 131 1st Qu.: 321950 1st Qu.: 3.000
Median :3.905e+09 20140626T000000: 131 Median : 450000 Median : 3.000
Mean :4.580e+09 20140708T000000: 127 Mean : 540182 Mean : 3.371
3rd Qu.:7.309e+09 20150427T000000: 126 3rd Qu.: 645000 3rd Qu.: 4.000
Max. :9.900e+09 20150325T000000: 123 Max. :7700000 Max. :33.000
(Other) :20833
bathrooms sqft_living sqft_lot floors view
Min. :0.000 Min. : 290 Min. : 520 Min. :1.000 Min. :0.0000
1st Qu.:1.750 1st Qu.: 1427 1st Qu.: 5040 1st Qu.:1.000 1st Qu.:0.0000
Median :2.250 Median : 1910 Median : 7618 Median :1.500 Median :0.0000
Mean :2.115 Mean : 2080 Mean : 15107 Mean :1.494 Mean :0.2343
3rd Qu.:2.500 3rd Qu.: 2550 3rd Qu.: 10688 3rd Qu.:2.000 3rd Qu.:0.0000
Max. :8.000 Max. :13540 Max. :1651359 Max. :3.500 Max. :4.0000

condition grade sqft_above sqft_basement yr_built
Min. :1.000 Min. : 1.000 Min. : 290 Min. : 0.0 Min. :1900
1st Qu.:3.000 1st Qu.: 7.000 1st Qu.:1190 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.:1951
Median :3.000 Median : 7.000 Median :1560 Median : 0.0 Median :1975
Mean :3.409 Mean : 7.657 Mean :1788 Mean : 291.5 Mean :1971
3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.: 8.000 3rd Qu.:2210 3rd Qu.: 560.0 3rd Qu.:1997
Max. :5.000 Max. :13.000 Max. :9410 Max. :4820.0 Max. :2015

yr_renovated zipcode lat long sqft_living15
Min. : 0.0 Min. :98001 Min. :47.16 Min. :-122.5 Min. : 399
1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.:98033 1st Qu.:47.47 1st Qu.:-122.3 1st Qu.:1490
Median : 0.0 Median :98065 Median :47.57 Median :-122.2 Median :1840
Mean : 84.4 Mean :98078 Mean :47.56 Mean :-122.2 Mean :1987
3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.:98118 3rd Qu.:47.68 3rd Qu.:-122.1 3rd Qu.:2360
Max. :2015.0 Max. :98199 Max. :47.78 Max. :-121.3 Max. :6210

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sqft_lot15
Min. : 651
1st Qu.: 5100
Median : 7620
Mean : 12768
3rd Qu.: 10083
Max. :871200

#Create subset of data

> kc_house_data <- kc_house_data[1:1000,]
>
> #making the data variables names available in the script
> attach(kc_house_data)
> #Data Exploration & view the data structure

> glimpse(kc_house_data)
Observations: 1,000
Variables: 20
#make the prices in 100k

> pricesin100k <- kc_house_data$price / 100000
> #price distribution> see appendix 1

> hist(pricesin100k)
#Condition distribution> see appendix 1

> hist(kc_house_data$condition, main = 'condition distribution', xlab = 'House condition', ylab =
'recurrence',
+ col ='red')
> #square footage distribution> see appendix 1

> squarefoot <- kc_house_data$sqft_lot15 / 100
> #price by square footage

> plot(y = pricesin100k, x = squarefoot, xlap = 'square feet', ylab = 'price In 100k')
> #linear Regression

> #correlation between variables
> cor(price,sqft_living)
[1] 0.7049203
>
> cor(price,sqft_living15)
[1] 0.645279
>
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> cor(price,sqft_basement)
[1] 0.3673497
> cor(price,bedrooms)
[1] 0.307069
# correlation test between price & sqft_living
cor.test(kc_house_data$price, kc_house_data$sqft_living)
Pearson's product-moment correlation
data: kc_house_data$price and kc_house_data$sqft_living
t = 31.397, df = 998, p-value < 2.2e-16 --------- the p-value is too small means that there is a significance
relations between the 2 variables.
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
0.6723072 0.7348024
sample estimates:
cor
0.7049203
# correlation test between price & bedrooms
cor.test(kc_house_data$price, kc_house_data$bedrooms)
Pearson's product-moment correlation
data: kc_house_data$price and kc_house_data$bedrooms
t = 10.193, df = 998, p-value < 2.2e-16--------- the p-value is too small means that there is a significance
relations between the 2 variables.
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
0.2498317 0.3621678
sample estimates:
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cor
0.307069
# model 1
> mdl1 <- lm(price ~ sqft_living)

> summary(mdl1)
Call:
lm(formula = price ~ sqft_living)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-684539 -135676 -25205 96142 2042894
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -32626.173 19195.049 -1.7 0.0895 .
sqft_living 269.652 8.589 31.4 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 241000 on 998 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.4969, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4964
F-statistic: 985.8 on 1 and 998 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
> coef(summary(mdl1))

(Intercept) -32626.1735 19195.049377 -1.699718 8.949556e-02
sqft_living 269.6519 8.588552 31.396669 4.717948e-15
> va1 = coef(summary(mdl1))

> va1[,1]
(Intercept) sqft_living
-32626.1735 269.6519
> va1[,4]
(Intercept) sqft_living
8.949556e-02 4.717948e-151
> ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=sqft_living)) + geom_point(method = "lm") +

geom_smooth(method = "lm") # see appendix 1
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>predict(mdl1) # see appendix 2.
>plot(price, sqft_living, main="Scatterplot")

>
> abline(mdl1, col=2, lwd=3)
>
> anova(mdl1)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: price
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
sqft_living 1 5.7270e+13 5.7270e+13 985.75 < 2.2e-16 ***
Residuals 998 5.7982e+13 5.8098e+10
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
> sqrt(397041) #the mean sq for resuals represented in anova
[1] 630.1119 # just the same Residual standard error represented linear regression summary.
# model 2
> mdl2 <- lm(price ~ bedrooms)
> #get a summary of the model
> summary(mdl2)
Call:
lm(formula = price ~ bedrooms)
Residuals:
-566003 -197773 -64410 100865 2592240
Coefficients:
(Intercept) 110518 41500 2.663 0.00787 **
bedrooms 122414 12010 10.193 < 2e-16 ***
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
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F-statistic: 103.9 on 1 and 998 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16--------- the p-value is too small means that there is a
significance relations between the 2 variables.
> coef(summary(mdl2))
(Intercept) 110517.5 41499.74 2.663089 7.867344e-03
bedrooms 122414.2 12009.50 10.193116 2.806871e-23
> va2 = coef(summary(mdl2))
> va2[,1]
(Intercept) bedrooms
110517.5 122414.2
> va2[,4]
(Intercept) bedrooms
7.867344e-03 2.806871e-23
> predict(mdl2) # see appendix 2
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#Multiple linear Regression model
# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms, sqft_living.
cor(bedrooms, sqft_living, method = "pearson")
# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms,sqft_living15
cor(bedrooms, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")
# calculate Pearson's correlation sqft_living ,sqft_living15
cor(sqft_living, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")
# ask for confidence intervals for the model coefficients
confint(mmdl1, conf.level=0.95)
confint(summary(mmdl1, conf.level=0.95))
# fit a model using the x variables
mmdl1 = lm(price ~ bedrooms + sqft_living + sqft_living15, kc_house_data)
#get a summary of the model
summary(mmdl1)
# applying plot model >see the appendix 1
plot(mmdl1)
# apply the ggplot to check the redundancy > see the appendix 1
ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=sqft_living, col=bedrooms, size=sqft_living15)) +

geom_point()
5.Evaluation of the findings
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(Mdl1 linear regression interpretation)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) -32626.173 19195.049 -1.7 0.0895 .
sqft_living 269.652 8.589 31.4 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Interpretation text:
The slope coefficient(sqft_living) comes out to be 269.652, with a t-statistic 31.4, and P value
<2e-16 ***, now we know that it is now statistically significant even at 90% level as P >> 0.1.As
the value of Multiple R-squared comes out to be 0.4969, this model explains only about 269.652
% of the variation, which is almost insignificant. This is so high because there cannot be any
possible relation between two randomly generated normal variables.
• Reading the Results:
The p-value is incredibly small implying that this variable is extremely significant in
determining the price. A high R-squared also shows that the square footage of the
apartment would determine a substantial amount of cost price.
• Business Impact:
Square footage being a key driver for the price of a home makes sense from a business
perspective, larger homes means more expensive real estate. This is confirmed based on
our analysis.
(Mdl2) linear regression interpretation
Residuals:
-566003 -197773 -64410 100865 2592240
Coefficients:
(Intercept) 110518 41500 2.663 0.00787 **
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bedrooms 122414 12010 10.193 < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

The slope coefficient(bedroom) comes out to be 122414, with a t-statistic 10.193, and P value <
2e-16.As the value of Multiple R-squared comes out to be 0.09429, this model explains only
about 122.414 of the variation. As the output shows, the predictors jointly explain 9% of the
observed variance on the dependent variable ‘rating’ (adj-R2=0.09338); the amount of variance-
explained differs significantly from zero, F (1, 998) = 103.9, p<.01.
 Reading the Results:
The p-value again is small implying that this variable is significant in determining price.
Bedrooms have a much smaller R-squared than anticipated, but it still is helping determine a
portion of the overall price for a home.
 Business Impact:
Although the price determined by how many bedrooms is smaller, it is important to understand
why this might be the case. This attribute is being skewed potentially due to square footage
being a useful determinant for bedroom count, and therefore it leans away from the significance
of actual bedroom number.
Coefficients:
(Intercept) -7453.44 34231.87 -0.218 0.828
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bedrooms -45113.80 10577.75 -4.265 2.19e-05 ***
sqft_living 230.84 15.71 14.692 < 2e-16 ***
sqft_living15 103.43 18.87 5.481 5.34e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

The slope coefficient for bedrooms comes out to be -45113.80 with a t-statistic -4.265,
sqft_living comes out to be 230.84, with a t-statistic 14.692, and for sqft_living15 comes out to
be 103.43, with a t-statistic 5.34e-08. The predictors bedrooms, sqft_living, and sqft_living15
have p-values are less than 0.05 which is the significance level. The data analysis results
showed that the three predictors have a significant outcome on price. The model is fit with three
predictors.
• Reading the Results:
The low p-values for each attribute imply they are significant in determining the price. A negative
intercept means that when you remove all attributes (something we know to be impossible) the
price would go below zero. When you look at the amount determined by these variables, it is a
large portion of the final housing price and would be useful in determining future home prices.
• Business Impact:
This model grants the user the ability to estimate other home’s prices. It is beneficial to test
additional data on how current prices might impact future prices or how adding a new bedroom
could change the cost of a home. Leveraging this model in combination with the cost of doing
an addition to home could allow an investor to know if it would be beneficial to incur that
additional cost.
#Summary of the results for linear regression and multilinear regression:
The results for both analyses that came out from linear regression and multilinear regression
analysis showed that the prices overall for King County houses keep increasing yearly. Even
though the correlation between the price and the square foot living showed less in 2015 than in
2014. The interpretations for linear regression analysis and multilinear regression analysis are
straight forward.
6.Management recommendation
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The findings and data analysis for King County showed that investment in King County real
estate would be a good investment. The data analysis for the county showed that the prices are
going up year after year. The king county showed good potential for real estate businesses
investment. The square footage of king county real estate being a key driver for the price of a
home makes sense from a business perspective; larger homes means more expensive real
estate. The data analysis confirmed based on our analysis. Although the rate determined by
how many bedrooms is smaller, it is essential to understand why this might be the case. This
attribute is being skewed potentially due to square footage being a useful determinant for
bedroom count, and therefore it leans away from the significance of actual bedroom number.
This model grants the user the ability to estimate other home’s prices. It is beneficial to test
additional data on how current prices might impact future prices or how adding a new bedroom
could change the cost of a home. Leveraging this model in combination with the cost of doing
an addition to the house could allow an investor to know if it would be beneficial to incur that
additional cost. I recommend to invest in King County since the prices keep increasing year
after in the county.
#All code written
#libraries
library(ggplot2)
library(ggmap)
library(dplyr)
library(glmnet)
library(rpart)
library(randomForest)
library(leaps)
library(rpart.plot)
library(ISLR)
#Import Data
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kc_house_data <- read.csv("~/Desktop/kc_house_data.csv")
#view the data
View(kc_house_data)
#show the data structure
str(kc_house_data)
#Data Summary
summary(kc_house_data)
#Create sub-set of data
kc_house_data <- kc_house_data[1:1000,]
#making the data variables names available in the script
attach(kc_house_data)
#Data Exploration & view the data structure
glimpse(kc_house_data)
#make the prices in 100k
pricesin100k <- kc_house_data$price / 100000
#price distribution
hist(kc_house_data$price, main = 'price distribution', xlab = 'House price', ylab = 'recurrence', col = 'blue')
#Condition distribution
hist(kc_house_data$condition, main = 'condition distribution', xlab = 'House condition', ylab = 'recurrence',
col ='red')
#square footage distribution
squarefoot <- kc_house_data$sqft_lot15 / 100
#price by square footage
plot(y = pricesin100k, x = squarefoot, xlap = 'square feet', ylab = 'price In 100k')
#scatter plot for year house built
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plot(price ~ yr_built)plot(y = pricesin100k, x = squarefoot, xlap = 'square feet', ylab = 'price In 100k')
#linear Regression
#correlation between variables
cor(sqft_living, price)
cor(sqft_living15, price)
cor(sqft_basement, price)
cor(bedrooms, price)
# correlation test between price & sqft_living
cor.test(kc_house_data$price, kc_house_data$sqft_living)
# correlation test between price & bedrooms
cor.test(kc_house_data$price, kc_house_data$bedrooms)
# model 1
mdl1 <- lm(price ~ sqft_living)
summary(mdl1)
coef(summary(mdl1))
va1 = coef(summary(mdl1))
va1[,1]
va1[,4]
predict(mdl1)
# create ggplot 'scatterplot' between price & sqft_living
ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=sqft_living)) + geom_point(method = "lm") + geom_smooth(method = "lm")
# create Anova analysis
anova(mdl1)
sqrt(397041) #the mean SQ for results represented in Anova
# just the same Residual standard error represented linear regression summary.
# model 2
mdl2 <- lm(price ~ bedrooms)
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summary(mdl2)
coef(summary(mdl2))
va2 = coef(summary(mdl2))
va2[,1]
va2[,4]
predict(mdl2)
# create ggplot 'scatterplot' between price & bedrooms
ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=bedrooms)) + geom_point(method = "lm") + geom_smooth(method = "lm")
# create Anova analysis
anova(mdl2)
sqrt(0.658) #the mean SQ for results represented in Anova just the same Residual standard error represented
# linear regression summary.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms, sqft_living.
cor(bedrooms, sqft_living, method = "pearson")
# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms,sqft_living15
cor(bedrooms, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")
# calculate Pearson's correlation sqft_living ,sqft_living15
cor(sqft_living, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")
# ask for confidence intervals for the model coefficients
confint(mmdl1, conf.level=0.95)
confint(summary(mmdl1, conf.level=0.95))
# fit a model using the x variables
mmdl1 = lm(price ~ bedrooms + sqft_living + sqft_living15, kc_house_data)
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summary(mmdl1)
# applying plot model
plot(mmdl1)
# apply the ggplot to check the redundancy
ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=sqft_living, col=bedrooms, size=sqft_living15)) + geom_point()
Appendix:
A detailed description of contributions to the report?
 Find the appropriate data-set source for the project

 Write the whole codes for the project
 Write the data results interpretations
 Prepare the progression report
 Prepare the slides content of the presentation for initial report
 Prepare the final report for the project
 Prepare the contents for the final presentation slides content
 Prepare the variables descriptions table
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Appendix 1: Graphs
Data explorations graphs
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#Linear regressions graphs model1
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#Model 1 linear regression charts
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#Model 2 linear regression charts
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#Multiple regression model graphs
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Appendix 2:
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#model 1 prediction (linear regression analysis)
predict(mdl1)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
285563.11 660379.31 175005.82 495891.63 420389.08 1428887.33 429826.90 253204.88 447354.28 477015.99
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
927334.73 280170.08 352976.10 336796.98 455443.84 762847.04 477015.99 398816.93 290956.15 304438.75
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
404209.97 789812.24 579483.73 255901.40 628021.08 428478.64 628021.08 344886.54 377244.77 660379.31
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
592966.32 288259.63 595662.84 261294.44 522856.82 587573.28 414996.04 603752.40 296349.19 673861.91
41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
660379.31 1105305.01 936772.55 390727.37 312528.31 819473.95 234329.25 584876.77 304438.75 709725.61
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
288259.63 816777.43 347583.06 501284.66 703523.62 730488.81 574090.69 619931.52 843742.63 466229.91
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
547125.49 307135.27 646627.06 382637.81 414996.04 714309.70 700827.10 571394.17 237025.76 830260.03
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
1253613.57 307135.27 708916.66 609145.44 450050.80 892279.98 441961.24 247811.84 347583.06 897673.01
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
601055.88 479712.51 512070.74 420389.08 226239.69 544428.97 684647.98 714309.70 401513.45 245115.32
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
501284.66 916548.65 290956.15 393423.89 393423.89 857225.22 495891.63 280170.08 455443.84 592966.32
101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110
525553.34 501284.66 557911.57 754757.49 293652.67 598359.36 417692.56 301742.23 814080.91 514767.26
111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120
590269.80 307135.27 382637.81 528249.86 838349.59 1148449.32 396120.41 204667.53 390727.37 401513.45
121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130
614538.48 358369.14 175005.82 533642.90 752060.97 708916.66 533642.90 549822.01 592966.32 525553.34
131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140
253204.88 509374.22 1032498.98 509374.22 544428.97 323314.39 512070.74 665772.35 288259.63 282866.59
141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
266687.48 727792.29 401513.45 253204.88 514767.26 956996.44 654986.27 619931.52 576787.21 352976.10
151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160
334100.46 266687.48 304438.75 1364170.87 156130.18 285563.11 1035195.50 679254.94 309831.79 441961.24
161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170
522856.82 447354.28 884190.42 482409.03 512070.74 393423.89 328707.42 690041.02 690041.02 336796.98
171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180
388030.85 549822.01 328707.42 1013623.35 665772.35 269384.00 498588.15 296349.19 493195.11 331403.94
181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190
417692.56 609145.44 625324.56 250508.36 811384.39 1070250.25 369155.21 479712.51 326010.90 568697.65
191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200
412299.52 288259.63 544428.97 555215.05 253204.88 423085.60 498588.15 547125.49 482409.03 331403.94
201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210
199274.49 490498.59 239722.28 317921.35 212757.09 636110.63 625324.56 239722.28 210060.57 587573.28
211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220
385334.33 309831.79 571394.17 699209.19 431175.16 196577.97 857225.22 574090.69 1019016.39 323314.39
221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230
711613.18 439264.72 595662.84 566001.13 512070.74 304438.75 374548.25 431175.16 352976.10 366458.70
231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240
358369.14 582180.25 760150.53 237025.76 636110.63 981265.11 566001.13 498588.15 1000140.75 1156538.87
241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250
352976.10 191184.94 352976.10 317921.35 245115.32 706220.14 951603.40 161523.22 509374.22 388030.85
251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260
455443.84 873404.34 374548.25 344886.54 433871.68 350279.58 603752.40 393423.89 299045.71 630717.60
261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270
414996.04 309831.79 533642.90 175005.82 172309.30 425782.12 269384.00 255901.40 525553.34 1329116.12
271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280
1399225.62 247811.84 425782.12 317921.35 258597.92 682760.42 584876.77 997444.23 563304.61 611841.96
281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290
February 20, 2018

24
668468.87 199274.49 1000140.75 911155.61 619931.52 700827.10 641503.67 417692.56 749364.45 409603.01
291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300
477015.99 762847.04 549822.01 851832.18 498588.15 873404.34 323314.39 681951.46 514767.26 396120.41
301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310
1194290.15 625324.56 490498.59 517463.78 560608.09 485105.55 452747.32 555215.05 239722.28 862618.26
311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320
606448.92 414996.04 951603.40 1124180.64 1124180.64 493195.11 665772.35 487802.07 363762.18 183095.38
321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330
816777.43 514767.26 358369.14 374548.25 301742.23 301742.23 784419.20 520160.30 237025.76 606448.92
331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340
722399.25 571394.17 455443.84 255901.40 638807.15 495891.63 757454.01 374548.25 350279.58 436568.20
341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350
657682.79 787115.72 641503.67 311180.05 663075.83 237025.76 237025.76 255901.40 342190.02 641503.67
351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360
118378.91 579483.73 479712.51 234329.25 385334.33 560608.09 482409.03 439264.72 326010.90 625324.56
361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370
409603.01 711613.18 458140.35 536339.42 787115.72 463533.39 773633.12 916548.65 625324.56 530946.38
371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380
352976.10 555215.05 555215.05 897673.01 358369.14 838349.59 409603.01 396120.41 512070.74 317921.35
381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390
339493.50 1056767.66 541732.46 654986.27 1261703.13 644200.19 347583.06 412299.52 539035.94 517463.78
391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400
385334.33 501284.66 398816.93 857225.22 1002837.27 296349.19 700827.10 490498.59 549822.01 379941.29
401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410
428478.64 973175.56 220846.65 439264.72 458140.35 374548.25 315224.83 390727.37 487802.07 733185.33
411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420
385334.33 191993.89 773633.12 506677.70 611841.96 752060.97 529598.12 560608.09 468926.43 1604161.09
421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430
223543.17 398816.93 574090.69 582180.25 220846.65 379941.29 557911.57 601055.88 355672.62 560608.09
431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440
584876.77 1056767.66 671165.39 369155.21 628021.08 428478.64 1280578.77 811384.39 309831.79 539035.94
441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450
417692.56 525553.34 350279.58 304438.75 220846.65 485105.55 923289.95 307135.27 598359.36 665772.35
451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460
1037892.02 296349.19 344886.54 603752.40 471622.95 730488.81 576787.21 498588.15 814080.91 301742.23
461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470
897673.01 660379.31 374548.25 611841.96 231632.73 83324.16 366458.70 466229.91 579483.73 455443.84
471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480
401513.45 1002837.27 1075643.29 1097215.45 881493.90 477015.99 401513.45 250508.36 137254.55 752060.97
481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490
425782.12 493195.11 773633.12 331403.94 1277882.25 549822.01 1277882.25 207364.05 725095.77 884190.42
491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500
393423.89 420389.08 317921.35 727792.29 374548.25 299045.71 536339.42 797901.80 369155.21 539035.94
501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510
824866.99 369155.21 487802.07 714309.70 417692.56 326010.90 293652.67 288259.63 382637.81 1054071.14
511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520
622628.04 668468.87 1156538.87 326010.90 479712.51 263990.96 501284.66 614538.48 1250917.05 824866.99
521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530
288259.63 137254.55 649593.23 423085.60 220846.65 301742.23 787115.72 1598768.05 396120.41 641503.67
531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540
447354.28 334100.46 1245524.01 239722.28 247811.84 401513.45 390727.37 374548.25 334100.46 498588.15
541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550
1424303.25 388030.85 592966.32 539035.94 539035.94 870707.82 609145.44 255901.40 587573.28 323314.39
551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560
555215.05 1148449.32 450050.80 169612.78 317921.35 773633.12 1218558.82 344886.54 708916.66 520160.30
561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570
568697.65 598359.36 741274.89 1078339.81 528249.86 463533.39 285563.11 549822.01 285563.11 280170.08
571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580
460836.87 830260.03 657682.79 654986.27 326010.90 296349.19 454095.58 1598768.05 592966.32 340572.11
581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590
700827.10 458140.35 541732.46 522856.82 350279.58 374548.25 549822.01 824866.99 536339.42 522856.82
591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600
460836.87 458140.35 401513.45 447354.28 463533.39 361065.66 344886.54 876100.86 935424.29 830260.03
601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610
417692.56 619931.52 352976.10 355672.62 358369.14 924638.21 309831.79 220846.65 417692.56 803294.84
611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620
263990.96 471622.95 487802.07 652289.75 312528.31 458140.35 369155.21 474319.47 304438.75 355672.62
621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630
485105.55 522856.82 293652.67 441961.24 234329.25 226239.69 414996.04 479712.51 309831.79 843742.63
631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640
February 20, 2018

25
226239.69 326010.90 528249.86 692737.54 207364.05 255901.40 290956.15 334100.46 520160.30 776329.64
641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650
317921.35 574090.69 975872.08 414996.04 603752.40 441961.24 420389.08 323314.39 201971.01 307135.27
651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660
237025.76 512070.74 485105.55 547125.49 363762.18 824866.99 1027105.94 234329.25 714309.70 304438.75
661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670
274777.04 574090.69 409603.01 305787.01 315224.83 317921.35 296349.19 676558.42 493195.11 819473.95
671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680
385334.33 425782.12 644200.19 452747.32 452747.32 471622.95 239722.28 269384.00 530946.38 1145752.80
681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690
355672.62 663075.83 827563.51 609145.44 350279.58 773633.12 690041.02 703523.62 296349.19 371851.73
691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700
460836.87 1199683.19 633414.11 183095.38 749364.45 347583.06 730488.81 420389.08 441961.24 571394.17
701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710
339493.50 188488.42 555215.05 344886.54 204667.53 253204.88 379941.29 636110.63 369155.21 954299.92
711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720
598359.36 358369.14 563304.61 272080.52 385334.33 428478.64 239722.28 684647.98 684647.98 317921.35
721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730
417692.56 226239.69 1226648.38 544428.97 646896.71 412299.52 355672.62 250508.36 363762.18 1108001.53
731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740
498588.15 382637.81 530946.38 609145.44 548743.41 525553.34 482409.03 485105.55 884190.42 344886.54
741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750
563304.61 282866.59 533642.90 280170.08 371851.73 760150.53 509374.22 552518.53 352976.10 374548.25
751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760
277473.56 547125.49 336796.98 609145.44 336796.98 398816.93 978568.60 1032498.98 614538.48 730488.81
761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770
625324.56 288259.63 344886.54 703523.62 611841.96 522856.82 638807.15 263990.96 622628.04 822170.47
771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780
679254.94 272080.52 490498.59 263990.96 290956.15 506677.70 477015.99 482409.03 698130.58 1277882.25
781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790
304438.75 396120.41 301742.23 506677.70 940817.32 487802.07 312528.31 530946.38 490498.59 452747.32
791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800
433871.68 725095.77 924638.21 326010.90 169612.78 441961.24 830260.03 436568.20 533642.90 1118787.60
801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810
328707.42 827563.51 406906.49 773633.12 385334.33 423085.60 495891.63 611841.96 668468.87 493195.11
811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820
304438.75 285563.11 420389.08 566001.13 1285971.81 684647.98 277473.56 272080.52 711613.18 352976.10
821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828 829 830
369155.21 514767.26 779026.16 455443.84 455443.84 228936.21 509374.22 317921.35 307135.27 671165.39
831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840
482409.03 447354.28 479712.51 628021.08 339493.50 485105.55 331403.94 331403.94 644200.19 633414.11
841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850
414996.04 328707.42 404209.97 587573.28 506677.70 409603.01 379941.29 1045981.58 401513.45 525553.34
851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860
479712.51 250508.36 377244.77 611841.96 614538.48 450050.80 431175.16 770936.60 377244.77 277473.56
861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868 869 870
69841.56 212757.09 412299.52 636110.63 520160.30 350279.58 900369.53 371851.73 323314.39 555215.05
871 872 873 874 875 876 877 878 879 880
460836.87 404209.97 754757.49 857225.22 792508.76 793587.37 379941.29 482409.03 242418.80 277473.56
881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890
307135.27 485105.55 452747.32 517463.78 560608.09 830260.03 614538.48 274777.04 326010.90 490498.59
891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900
776329.64 458140.35 752060.97 261294.44 299045.71 428478.64 819473.95 690041.02 557911.57 307135.27
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910
768240.08 660379.31 994747.71 239722.28 366458.70 304438.75 413378.13 347583.06 549822.01 344886.54
911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920
350279.58 641503.67 347583.06 533642.90 439264.72 525553.34 390727.37 485105.55 237025.76 539035.94
921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930
355672.62 414996.04 328707.42 609145.44 388030.85 717006.22 468926.43 611841.96 336796.98 660379.31
931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940
323314.39 646896.71 304438.75 388030.85 595662.84 954299.92 719702.73 253204.88 512070.74 393423.89
941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950
512070.74 228936.21 369155.21 1151145.84 708916.66 547125.49 455443.84 568697.65 622628.04 959692.96
951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960
347583.06 326010.90 369155.21 512070.74 811384.39 687344.50 501284.66 533642.90 331403.94 544428.97
961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970
562765.31 239722.28 228936.21 377244.77 706220.14 390727.37 323314.39 654986.27 388030.85 603752.40
971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980
326010.90 255901.40 374548.25 428478.64 719702.73 673861.91 768240.08 250508.36 312528.31 245115.32
981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990
February 20, 2018

26
479712.51 795205.28 441961.24 218150.13 204667.53 334100.46 541732.46 366458.70 371851.73 417692.56
991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000
522856.82 549822.01 717006.22 369155.21 166916.26 468926.43 396120.41 196577.97 245115.32 466229.91
#model2 prediction (linear regression analysis)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 355346.0
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 600174.5
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 722588.7 477760.2
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0
109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120
600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5
121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132
477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5
133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2
145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156
600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 232931.7 477760.2
157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168
722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5
169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0
181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 845003.0 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0
217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228
722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5
229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240
477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 845003.0 355346.0 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 845003.0
241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252
477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0
265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276
232931.7 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2
289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300
722588.7 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312
600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7
313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324
722588.7 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
February 20, 2018

27
325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336
355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 845003.0 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5
337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0
349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360
477760.2 600174.5 232931.7 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2
361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372
477760.2 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5
373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384
600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5
385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396
722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0
397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408
722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420
600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7
421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432
355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5
433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444
600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2
445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 232931.7 477760.2 600174.5
469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480
477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5
481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492
600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 845003.0 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2
493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504
477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5
505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516
477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0
517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 600174.5 355346.0 355346.0 600174.5 845003.0
529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540
600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5
541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2
553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564
477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 967417.2 600174.5 845003.0 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5
565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0
577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5
601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612
355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2
613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0
625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2
637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660
232931.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5
673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684
600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5
685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696
600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2
697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708
722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5
709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 845003.0 845003.0 477760.2
February 20, 2018

28
721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732
477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2
733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2
745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2
757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768
722588.7 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780
600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7
781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 845003.0 722588.7 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804
600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7
805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816
600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2
817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828
477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 845003.0 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5
841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852
600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864
477760.2 600174.5 722588.7 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 232931.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
865 866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 876
600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 110517.5
877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 722588.7 722588.7 355346.0
889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900
477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 722588.7 722588.7 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912
600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 232931.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924
477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 355346.0 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2
925 926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936
477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2
937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948
600174.5 355346.0 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 355346.0 600174.5 722588.7 722588.7 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2
949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960
477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5
961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972
600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 477760.2
973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984
477760.2 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 722588.7 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 477760.2 722588.7 355346.0 355346.0
985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996
355346.0 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 477760.2 600174.5 600174.5 600174.5 477760.2 355346.0 600174.5
997 998 999 1000
355346.0 355346.0 355346.0 477760.2
February 20, 2018

29

Analyze House Price For King County

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Analyze House Price for King County, Washington

Hatem Ben Aghil

1. Documenting your business problem

February 20, 2018

2.Current Status of Data Collection and Obstacles

The new data-set source https://www.kaggle.com/harlfoxem/housesalesprediction/data.

February 20, 2018

February 20, 2018

#Create subset of data

> #Data Exploration & view the data structure

#make the prices in 100k

> #price distribution> see appendix 1

#Condition distribution> see appendix 1

> #square footage distribution> see appendix 1

> #price by square footage

> #linear Regression

February 20, 2018

# correlation test between price & sqft_living

Pearson's product-moment correlation

data: kc_house_data$price and kc_house_data$sqft_living

alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0

95 percent confidence interval:

# correlation test between price & bedrooms

Pearson's product-moment correlation

data: kc_house_data$price and kc_house_data$bedrooms

alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0

95 percent confidence interval:

February 20, 2018

> mdl1 <- lm(price ~ sqft_living)

Residual standard error: 241000 on 998 degrees of freedom

> va1 = coef(summary(mdl1))

> ggplot(kc_house_data, aes(x=price, y=sqft_living)) + geom_point(method = "lm") +

February 20, 2018

>plot(price, sqft_living, main="Scatterplot")

> sqrt(397041) #the mean sq for resuals represented in anova

> mdl2 <- lm(price ~ bedrooms)

> #get a summary of the model

lm(formula = price ~ bedrooms)

Min 1Q Median 3Q Max

-566003 -197773 -64410 100865 2592240

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

(Intercept) 110518 41500 2.663 0.00787 **

bedrooms 122414 12010 10.193 < 2e-16 ***

February 20, 2018

Multiple R-squared: 0.09429, Adjusted R-squared: 0.09338

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

(Intercept) 110517.5 41499.74 2.663089 7.867344e-03

bedrooms 122414.2 12009.50 10.193116 2.806871e-23

> va2 = coef(summary(mdl2))

> predict(mdl2) # see appendix 2

February 20, 2018

# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms, sqft_living.

cor(bedrooms, sqft_living, method = "pearson")

# calculate Pearson's correlation between bedrooms,sqft_living15

cor(bedrooms, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")

# calculate Pearson's correlation sqft_living ,sqft_living15

cor(sqft_living, sqft_living15, method = "pearson")