Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sonata Software - Q4FY19 Result Update - Centrum 31052019
Sonata Software - Q4FY19 Result Update - Centrum 31052019
Institutional Research
India I IT Services
31 May 2019
Sonata Software delivered a steady performance for Q4FY19 with in-line IT services Market Data
revenues and margins. PAT was 8% ahead of our estimates aided by higher other Bloomberg: SSOF IN
income. Sonata's IT services USD revenues grew by 12% for FY19 (11% organic 52 week H/L: Rs429/265
growth). We build 18% USD revenue growth for FY20 (Organic growth is 12% and rest Market cap: Rs37bn
is owing to full impact of Scalable Data Systems and Sopris acquisitions). Both these Shares outstanding: 105mn
acquisitions are being consolidated effective 4QFY19 and hence will have the full Free float: 59%
impact on revenues for FY20. Sonata Software’s focus on “Platformation” initiatives Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 98,159
within its focus verticals ( Retail, CPG and Travel) appear to be yielding results. Sonata Source: Bloomberg
has been able to deliver strong margin performance owing to its Platforms and IP led
offerings (Selling Services along with IP). IT services Adjusted EBIDTA margin stood at Changes in the report
23.6% for FY19 which is highest among midsized peers. We retain our EPS estimates Rating: Maintained
for FY20/FY21E. Retain TP at Rs415 (13.5x FY21E EPS). Dividend for FY19 stands at Target Price: Maintained
Rs12.75/sh which translates to strong dividend yield of 3.6%. Retain BUY. Earnings estimates: Maintained
Source: Centrum Research
Steady Quarter, Inorganic impact leads to higher growth
IT services revenues came at USD43.5mn up 6.6% QoQ in line with our estimates ( Sonata Software relative to NIFTY Midcap 100
43.2mn). Organic revenue growth stood at 2.9% and rest owing to Sopris and Scalable
Data Systems acquisitions. IT services adjusted EBIDTA margin came at 22.5% down
600bps QoQ and up 260bps YoY but inline with our estimates. We note 3QFY19 had
abnormally high IT services margin led by license sale. Hence, absence the same lead to
higher sequential drop. Headcount stood at 4,042 employees for 4Q with net addition
of 75 employees. PAT for 4QFY19 came at Rs653mn was 8% ahead of our estimates.
PAT beat was led by strong other income. Management continues to expand senior
leadership and has hired 3 senior recruits to boost the Digital Consulting team.
Source: Bloomberg
PAT beat aided by higher other income
Shareholding pattern
Consolidated revenues came in at Rs8,355mn, down 1% QoQ and up 33% YoY (Cen est:
Mar-19 Dec-18 Sep-18 Jun-18
Rs6,955mn) led by higher revenue from low margin product business. IT services
Promoter 28.2 28.2 31.0 31.0
revenues came in at Rs3041mn, up 7.1% QoQ and accounted for 36% of total revenues. IT
FIIs 13.8 15.2 16.6 15.9
products business (reselling business) revenues came in at Rs5,366mn, down 4.7% QoQ
DIIs 9.8 7.8 7.0 5.0
and up 38% YoY and accounted for 64% of revenues. IT products business usually shows
Public/oth 48.2 48.8 45.4 48.1
sequential volatility QoQ. Consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 10.6%, down 100bps Source: BSE
QoQ and up 43bps YoY. Absolute consolidated EBITDA came in at Rs884mn, 5% above our
estimate. Consolidated PAT for Q4 came in at Rs653mn, 8% above our estimate.
Valuation and risks
Sonata enjoys strong competency in Microsoft Dynamics and SAP Hybris. The
company’s recent acquisitions (Scalable Data Systems and Sopris Systems) would
further strengthen its positioning in Microsoft Dynamics offerings. We expect Sonata's
IT Services revenues to grow by 17.7/13.5% for FY20/FY21E (vs 18.4/14% modelled
earlier). We model IT services Adjusted EBITDA margin at 23.4/23.6% for FY20/FY21E
(vs 23.6% for FY19). Net cash on the balance sheet is Rs3,210mn (Rs33/sh, which is
8.7% of Mcap). A robust balance sheet and strong free cash flow have helped the
company maintain superior pay-out ratios (~66% of PAT paid as dividend in FY19).
Please see Appendix for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
In the interest of timeliness, this document is not edited.
Sonata Software 31 May 2019
Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revisions Valuations
FY20E FY20E FY21E FY21E We value Sonata Software at 13.5x FY21E EPS which yields a target price
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg % chg
New Old New Old of Rs415/sh
Revenue 33,561 30,915 8.6 35,007 33,144 5.6
EBITDA 3,950 3,965 (0.4) 4,351 4,335 0.4
EBITDA margin 11.8 12.8 (103) 12.4 13.1 (67)
Adj. PAT 2,847 2,867 (0.7) 3,182 3,191 (0.3) Valuations
Source: Centrum Research estimates
EPS for FY21 31
Target P/E 13.5
Centrum estimates vs Actual results Target price 415
Centrum Actual Variance
YE Mar (Rs mn)
Q4FY19 Q4FY19 (%) P/E mean and standard deviation ( One year forward)
Revenue 6,955 8,355 20.1
20
EBITDA 841 884 5.1
EBITDA margin (%) 12 10.6 (152) 15
Adj. PAT 607 653 7.5
10
Source: Bloomberg,Centrum Research estimates
5
Sonata Software versus NIFTY Midcap 100
0
1m 6m 1 year
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
SSOF IN 7.4 16.2 (4.5)
NIFTY Midcap 100 2.2 2.6 (5.0) P/E Mean
Source: Bloomberg, NSE Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research estimates
Key assumptions
YE Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E
USD revenues 12.0 17.7 13.4
Average rate (USD vs INR) 69.5 71.0 70.0
EBIDTA margin (%) 11.3 11.8 12.4
EBIT Margin (%) 10.9 11.4 12.1
USD revenues 12.0 17.7 13.4
Source: Centrum Research estimates
Peer comparison
Mkt Cap CAGR FY19-FY21E (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Company
Rs bn Sales(USD) EBIDTA PAT FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E
Mindtree 160.6 14.2 14.7 11.4 21.3 18.3 15.3 14.2 11.5 9.3 24.9 24.5 25.0
NIIT Tech 79.8 14.9 15.5 18.1 19.9 16.9 14.3 11.0 9.3 7.8 21.0 21.5 22.3
Sonata Software 37.3 15.5 13.9 13.1 15.0 12.9 11.6 9.5 8.5 6.9 35.0 34.5 33.7
Source: Company, Centrum Research estimates
12.0% 11.3%
7.4%
8.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.6%
Organic growth for the quarter 5.2% 5.4%
4.0% 4.3%
stood at 2.9% and rest owing 3.6% 3.4%
4.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7%
to Sopris and Scalable Data 1.3% 1.1%
Systems acquisitions 0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
-4.0% -2.9%
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
Source: Company, Centrum Research
31.0% 72
70
27.0% 68
22.9%
66
21.7%
23.3%
22.5%
21.7%
USD Vs INR
21.6%
23.0%
20.1%
19.8%
17.7%
60
17.4%
16.7%
58
15.2%
Key metrics
Fig 4: Headcount metrics
Headcount 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19
Total
Headcount 3,251 3,291 3,303 3,314 3,366 3,575 3,628 3,459 3,476 3,615 3,836 3,967 4,042
Net additions (28) 40 12 11 52 209 53 (169) 17 139 221 155 156
Source: Company, Centrum Research
Travel vertical (28% of total revenues) up 6.6% QoQ and Retail &CPG vertical which accounts to
27% of total revenues (up 10.7% QoQ) aided growth on vertical fronts.
Fig 6: Vertical mix of revenues (%)
% 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19
OPD 28 30 31 30 29 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 26
Travel 31 29 28 26 27 28 27 28 27 27 29 28 28
CPG 24 24 23 27 26 24 26 27 25 25 26 26 27
Others 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 20 20 17 19 19
Source: Company, Centrum Research
Average Rate (USD vs INR) 61.7 65.6 67.2 64.5 69.5 71.0 70.0
IT services Revenues ( Rs mn) 6,068 7,068 8,153 9,285 11,205 13,465 15,057
Growth (%) 25.5 16.5 15.4 13.9 20.7 20.2 11.8
IT Products Revenues ( Rs mn) 10,926 12,501 17,342 15,528 18,628 20,096 19,950
Growth (%) 0.7 14.4 38.7 (10.5) 20.0 7.9 (0.7)
Consolidated Revenues ( Rs mn) 16,821 19,404 25,211 24,539 29,608 33,561 35,007
Growth (%) 7.4 15.4 29.9 (2.7) 20.7 13.4 4.3
EBIDTA ( Rs mn)
IT Services 1,294 1,406 1,415 1,737 2,647 3,146 3,553
IT Products 383 547 517 591 723 804 798
Total Adjusted EBIDTA 1,677 1,954 1,931 2,328 3,370 3,950 4,351
Adjusted IT services EBIDTA margin (%) 21.3 19.9 17.4 18.7 23.6 23.4 23.6
Adjusted IT products EBIDTA margin(%) 3.5 4.4 3.0 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0
Total Consolidated EBIDTA margin(%) 10.0 9.9 7.6 9.4 11.3 11.8 12.4
Disclaimer
Centrum Broking Limited (“Centrum”) is a full-service, Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE). Our holding company, Centrum Capital Ltd, is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities. As a group Centrum has
Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group. Our research
professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection processes.
Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking, advisory, project finance or other businesses
and may receive commission, brokerage, fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of this material/report. Our
Company and Group companies and their officers, directors and employees, including the analysts and others involved in the preparation or issuance of this
material and their dependants, may on the date of this report or from, time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the
securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1% or more in the equity of this company Our sales
people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions
that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with
recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the
foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We and our Group may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese
Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Centrum. Centrum or its
affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was written. Further, Centrum or its affiliates did not
make a market in the subject company’s securities at the time that the research report was published.
This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy,
purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection
with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general
information of the clients of Centrum. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive this report at the same time. Centrum will
not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular
investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives,
financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may
not be suitable for all investors. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries
in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of
other countries. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons
who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if
necessary, seek professional/financial advice. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the
information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this
document.
The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant
uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over
time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These
projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No
independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion
of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company, Centrum, the authors of this report or
any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the
projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such
projections and forecasts.
The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may
realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital
may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to
change without notice. Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential
investment. Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Foreign currencies
denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the
investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. Certain
transactions including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities give rise to substantial risk and are
not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into any derivative
transactions.
This report/document has been prepared by Centrum, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No
representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. Centrum has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current
or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this
document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change.
This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible
media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This
publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum. This report or any portion hereof
may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum.
The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform
themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither Centrum nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any
damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the
use of the information.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything
contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely
for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The distribution
of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about, and
observe any such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations. No representation is made that this report is
accurate or complete.
Sonata Software
500
400
300
200
100
0
May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
Source: Bloomberg
Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Business activities of Centrum Broking
1 Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Limited (CBL)
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
Sonata Software
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for
No
which such compensation is received
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
No
research report
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No
10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No
11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject
12 No
company in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
13 No
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
Regn No.:
CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB011454239
CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INB231454233
DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INF231454233
(TRADING & CLEARING MEMBER)
CURRENCY DERIVATIVES: MCX-SX INE261454230
CURRENCY DERIVATIVES:NSE (TM & SCM) – NSE 231454233
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
Website: www.centrum.co.in
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in