14 June 2022

Cabo Ligado Weekly: 6-12 June

Cabo Ligado — or ‘connected cape’ — is a Mozambique conflict observatory launched by ACLED, Zitamar
News, and MediaFax.

Cabo Delgado, October 2017-June 2022

• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,287

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,034
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,734

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

The insurgency has continued its march southward into the district of Chiure, threatening the provincial
capital Pemba and attacking vulnerable civilians in Ancuabe on the way. North of Pemba, insurgents continue
to engage with security forces in Macomia district. Over the last two weeks, insurgents’ attacks on targets
within 60 km of Pemba have triggered significant displacement and forced the military to restrict movement
on key roads. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that over 11,000 people fled in
wake of the attack on Nanduli on 5 June, mostly to Pemba and Chiure but also to other neighboring districts.

Following the Nanduli attack, insurgents continued south to the Grafex mining project, owned by Australian
graphite mining company Triton Minerals, where they beheaded two employees on 8 June. This information
was initially conveyed by two of the victims’ colleagues who managed to escape to the village of Silva Macua,
about 20 km to the south, where many survivors of the Nanduli attack were sheltering. On 14 June, Triton
Minerals released a statement confirming that two “Security/Caretaker staff” had been killed. No material
damage was done to the site, the company said.

On 9 June, insurgents then appeared further south at the village of Ntutupue, about 55 km west of Pemba,
where local sources report that they encountered two civilians, beheaded one, and instructed the other to
report what had happened. Four days later, Islamic State (IS) social media claimed responsibility for killing
one civilian there. One source claims that Rwandan and Mozambican forces then pursued the insurgents into
the Pulo forest, where they clashed, but no other details of this confrontation have been reported.

One woman who was captured after the Nanduli attack and taken to the Pulo forest claimed she saw at least
60 insurgents. She said she was subsequently released and told by the insurgents to spread the message that
they are coming. She also claimed that people were drinking Frozy brand soft drinks, suggesting that supply
lines are robust. Another family from Ancuabe, who fled to Nampula, claimed their district had been attacked
by 300 insurgents.

On 12 June, IS social media issued a statement claiming to have killed two civilians and burnt down 70 houses
in Retene village in eastern Chiure, south of Pemba, an attack confirmed by a local source. This is the first
confirmed insurgent attack in Chiure, and the most southerly attack undertaken by the insurgents. Chiure
had previously been seen as a safe haven, where displaced people have sheltered since the start of the
conflict.

Other local sources reported rumors that the village of Mazeze, 8 km south of Retene, was attacked the day
before but no direct confirmation has yet been received. Given how close the villages are to each other, it is
not clear if these rumors refer to the Retene attack or a separate incident.

In any case, the recent attacks in Ancuabe and Chiure have sparked panic in Pemba, according to a source in
the city. Videos appearing on social media appear to show large traffic jams outside Pemba as every vehicle
entering the city is searched for insurgent infiltrators. Pemba is the main command and logistical hub for the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM).

Insurgent violence has also continued further north, in Macomia. On 7 June, IS claimed to have attacked the
village of Chai, about 30 km north of Macomia district headquarters, burning homes but without mentioning
any casualties. Local reports also suggested there were no casualties but several children were kidnapped
and later released. However, one source claims that on 10 June, 10 insurgents were killed between Nkoe
village and Chai in a clash with security forces that lasted through the night, although this has not yet been
corroborated.

On Thursday 9 June, insurgents and security forces clashed outside Quinto Congresso, with both sides
claiming to have ambushed and seized weapons from each other. IS was the first to claim victory, boasting
on social media channels the next day that they successfully surprised a group of soldiers on patrol near
“Quinto,” killing two and injuring several more. Two days later, IS issued a photo report allegedly from the
incident, one showing a beheaded body and the other a captured light machine gun with ammunition.

SAMIM responded on 13 June with a press statement claiming that a force of SAMIM and Mozambican troops
conducted a joint operation around Quinto Congresso on 9 June in which “terrorists were killed and others
suffered severe injuries.” The statement also claimed that in the operation they seized assault rifles and
ammunition, but admitted to suffering six injuries and one fatality. These areas of Macomia have remained
persistently insecure since the intervention of regional security players.

The intensification of violence in Cabo Delgado in recent weeks is causing concern internationally. On 9 June,
the Australian government advised all Australian nationals in the province to “leave the area if it’s safe to do
so” as “there is an extreme risk of terrorism” which may “target areas frequented by foreigners.” There are at
least three mining companies operating in Cabo Delgado that are listed on the Australian Securities Exchange,
including Triton Minerals.

The intensification of the violence and the rapid spread of attacks southward have clearly taken both civilian
and military authorities by surprise. The rate of attacks and the area in which they are taking place suggest
that there is more than one group currently active across Meluco, Ancuabe, and Chiure districts, and that they
are likely coordinating with each other. Consequently, security forces have been forced into a reactive
posture, chasing insurgents after incidents have occurred. At the same time, the consequences of the attacks
on the civilian population are creating new security challenges in managing large and unexpected flows of
people around the strategically important town of Pemba.

Regarding the insurgents’ objectives, there are, on the one hand, questions around the ability of the
insurgents to sustain this momentum in a context where they are stretched over a far wider geographical area
than before. They seem to be operating on basis of local reprovisioning and terrorizing communities. There
are of course concerns that Pemba is in their sights, and that there may be sleeper cells and caches of
weapons in the provincial capital itself. On the other hand, their own movement southward may be a reaction
to security operations in Macomia, particularly in the Catupa forest.

The high profile return of 123 displaced people from Quitunda, in Palma district, to Mocímboa da Praia last
week masks continued displacement across Cabo Delgado’s eastern districts, which have been shaken by
attacks in recent weeks from Palma in the north, to Ancuabe and Chiure in the south. Given continued conflict
across the province, and limited public services, further return to Mocímboa da Praia is not guaranteed.

Thousands of people who fled the March 2021 attack on Palma town have been living at Quitunda, a
resettlement village on Afungi peninsula constructed by Anadarko to house people displaced by the Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) project. The displaced people there include a number who originally fled to Palma from
Mocímboa da Praia, after Mocímboa was taken by insurgents in August 2020. Last week’s return of 123 to
Mocímboa da Praia was with the support of the “Joint Forces of Rwanda and Mozambique,” according to a
statement from Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence, which expects a total of 3,556 people to ultimately make the
move back to Mocímboa. It is unclear if conditions are yet suitable or if that level of projected return will be
possible. In April, Doctors without Borders (MSF) had reported that electricity and water had been restored,
but that there was no trade. Just last month, Mocímboa da Praia municipality was reduced to threatening
public servants to return by 15 May.

While removing a vulnerable population from the project site back to Mocímboa da Praia has always been an
objective for TotalEnergies, the company is not complacent about the security situation in the wider
community. Development support to Quitunda and other communities continues, but has been suspended
in Olumbe and Mondlane villages since late May, according to Savana newspaper. The two villages lie to the
south of the LNG site. This reflects concerns about the operations of an armed cell operating between the
coast and the R762 road linking Palma to Mocímboa da Praia. The cell is thought to be responsible for two
incursions into Olumbe over the last month, and for attacks on vehicles on the R762. With Mozambican,
Rwandan, and SADC forces stretched by events to the south, both Palma and Mocímboa da Praia may be
exposed.

The fear and flight caused by the insurgents’ actions in southern districts in the past fortnight underscore the
need for caution over return advised by President Nyusi in the last week of May. The ultimate success of high
profile, but very modest returns, as seen from Palma to Mocímboa da Praia last week are dependent on the
wider security situation. As we have seen in the past two weeks, this can change quickly.
The recent attacks in Ancuabe have triggered a series of actions as part of a mixed and sometimes
uncoordinated government response. On 6 June, during a virtual meeting with the General Secretary of the
Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi acknowledged publicly
the previous day's attack on Ancuabe. Nyusi said that the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) were already
monitoring insurgent movements in Nanduli, which prompted a military intervention. This military
intervention, Nyusi said, eventually led to the fleeing of civilians from the area. According to Nyusi, the
problem of “terrorism” is far from over, and the government's efforts will be aimed at containing the problem.
This approach, in Nyusi's view, involves strengthening operational capacity, making progress on the
reconstruction plan for the province, and consolidating security to allow the safe return of the displaced
population.

On the ground, the situation appeared to be more complicated. Following the attack on Nanduli on 5 June,
people from both Nanduli and surrounding villages fled their homes to safe areas, such as Sunate, also known
as Silva Macua, where many others had fled to get buses to other places. Among those who fled, according to
Carta de Moçambique, was Ancuabe Administrator Lucia Namashulua, who took refuge in the administrative
post of Metoro. However, she was forced by more senior officials to return to Ancuabe town, and then travel
to Sunate to urge the people to return to their homes, saying that the FDS was in control of the situation.

On 8 June, the Governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, went to Metoro as part of a government effort to
first reassure and then call on the displaced people of Nanduli to return to their homes, saying that efforts
were being put in place to restore security and public order. Valige further said that he would make at least
six vehicles available to transport the civilians back to their villages. On the same day, the spokeswoman for
the Cabo Delgado government, Jorgina Manhique, refused to comment on the extent of damage caused by
the Nanduli attack, saying only that the attacks had caused at least 2,500 people to be displaced. Parallel to
this, Minister of the Interior, Arsénia Massingue, was visiting the province, assuring SAMIM of government
cooperation, and raising concerns about police corruption.

Displaced people from Ancuabe who fled to the neighboring Chiure district were told to return to their district,
allegedly because the village of Ancuabe was not at risk of insurgent attacks, local sources said. The local
government in Chiure justified its decision on the ground that Nanduli is 50 km from Ancuabe village, claiming
that the insurgents would not be able to reach the village of Ancuabe.

On 11 June, the insurgents carried out another attack in Ancuabe district, this time in the village of Ntutupue,
about 60 km from Pemba. This second attack undermined the assurances of the administrator of Ancuabe
and the governor of Cabo Delgado that the situation was under control. Hundreds of civilians, mostly from
Ntutupue and Nipataco, fled towards Pemba city, most of them on foot.

The armed attacks that have devastated northern Cabo Delgado have never been so close to the provincial
capital, Pemba. In order to reinforce security in Pemba city and prevent the infiltration of insurgents, the
police authorities introduced military escorts on the morning of 12 June on the road that connects Pemba to
Metuge along the national road N1, and installed checkpoints. According to Carta, there were traffic
restrictions on the roads connecting Chiure to the Metoro junction, Chiure and Ancuabe, Metuge and Sunate
on the N1, and Metuge and Ancuabe.

The worsening security situation, and the impact of the Ancuabe attacks in particular, are already rippling
across the business sector. Standard Bank has revised its expectations for the restart of construction at the
Afungi LNG camp, from the third quarter of 2022 to 2023 at the earliest, saying that the recent attacks may
persuade TotalEnergies to further delay its return. The confederation of Mozambique Economic Associations
(CTA), also predicts a bleak future for business, saying the conflict in Cabo Delgado is creating a retraction of
the economy. According to the CTA, about 54,000 jobs have been affected.

On June 9, Australian mining company Syrah Resources announced that it would, along with its transport
provider, suspend all transport activity along the main road linking its mine in Balama with Pemba and
Nacala, the two ports it uses for export. Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM), located 65 km inland from Ancuabe
town, said that despite the situation its operations would continue but with unspecified travel restrictions.
Similar to MRM, Battery Minerals, another company operating in Balama, said it would not suspend
operations.

The United Nations has issued a warning about a possible disruption in the supply of humanitarian aid in
Cabo Delgado. If the World Food Program (WFP) does not receive new funds, it could suspend its food
assistance to displaced people from the conflict in Cabo Delgado. To continue providing food aid, WFP would
urgently need $86 million to feed at least 940,000 people over a six-month period.

Meanwhile, in Tanzania the coming of the kiangazi, or dry season, and consequent low water levels in the
Ruvuma river brought a wave of returns from Mozambique over the month of May. Over 50 young men were
detained in Mtwara region last month. Others have been placed under supervision while they remain in the
community. Supervision is an arrangement whereby individuals are not charged, but must report regularly
to the authorities. According to local sources, the arrests were in Mtwara Rural district, which borders
Mozambique’s Palma district, and Tandahimba district, which faces Nangade district.

Some returnees have been picked up by the security forces and released after interrogation and the
authorities being satisfied that they had been misled into joining the insurgency, or were not involved at all.
Large numbers of Tanzanians are known to live in northern Mozambique, so it should not be assumed that all
who cross back now are with the insurgency. In some cases, youth have returned to their villages and asked
for acceptance by their community leaders, without involving security forces. Nevertheless, such local
solutions raise fears in the authorities that returnees may still be in touch with the insurgency.