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Hukuba IBF Material Preparetion Assignment
Hukuba IBF Material Preparetion Assignment
June, 2022
Chiro, Ethiopia
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1 The International Monetary System …………………………………………………..1
1.1. The Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods System and, The Floating Exchange
Rate
regime……………………………………………………………………………………..1
1.2. The case for and against fixed versus floating exchange
rates……………………………6
1.3. Exchange rate regimes in Practice: Pegged system and currency
boards………………..10
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1. The International Monetary System
An international monetary system is a set of internationally agreed rules, conventions and
supporting institutions that facilitate international trade, cross border investment and generally
the reallocation of capital between states that have different currencies.
International monetary system refers to the system and rules that govern the use and exchange of
money around the world and between countries. Each country has its own currency as money
and the international monetary system governs the rules for valuing and exchanging these
currencies.
The international monetary system can be seen as a network effecting international payments
through institutions, rules, and regulations. In order to fulfill its role effectively, an international
monetary system should possess certain characteristics:
• A time element regarding the elimination of balance of payments disequilibrium among
countries, that is countries must be allowed sufficient time to adjust without severe recessions or
high inflation but, at the same time, should not be allowed to avoid adjustment at the expense of
other countries.
• The choice of the unit of account, that is the agreed measure of the value of currencies.
• International cooperation with respect to adjustment methods, concerted intervention, and
reserve assets
. • Promotion of free international trade so that productive resources are optimally allocated. We
can now briefly examine the different systems that have prevailed throughout modern economic
history.
1.1. The Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods System and, The Floating
Exchange Rate regime
A. The Gold Standard
The gold standard is the only example in history when exchange rates were truly fixed. It was a
system whereby the values of currencies were fixed relative to the value of gold, which was used
as a unit of account and the main reserve asset. Each country participating in the gold standard
fixed the value of its currency relative to gold and maintained gold reserves. The difference
between the quantity demanded and supplied of a country’s currency was determined by the
purchase or sale of gold so that the value of the currency in terms of gold remained fixed. The
amount of purchase or sale depended on the balance of payments deficit or surplus, respectively.
A country with a balance of payments surplus would sell its currency (i.e., buy gold) in order to
hold the revaluation (appreciation) of its currency. Because the domestic money supply was
based on gold, the inflow of gold would increase the money supply and lower interest rates.
Lower interest rates would provoke capital outflows while the resulting expansionary monetary
policy would increase income and cause domestic inflation, which encouraged imports and
discouraged exports. All these forces would work toward the elimination of the balance of
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payments surplus. On the other hand, a balance of payments deficit would necessitate the
purchase of the home currency (i.e., sale of gold) in order to keep the exchange rate from falling.
The resulting money supply contraction would dampen domestic demand and output, decrease
imports, and bring about a rise in interest rates. As a result, the balance of payments deficit
would be eliminated. It is apparent that the system provided an automatic method of adjustment
so that no management was needed. Since the money supply was directly tied to gold, the
government could not pursue an independent monetary policy in order to achieve domestic goals.
The gold standard was suspended in 1914, just before World War I. It was reintroduced in the
1920s and finally collapsed following the financial chaos of the Great Depression and World
War II.
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Since such revaluations were stringently resisted, the dollar became overvalued and the United
States ran a large balance of payments deficit. The number of dollars held by foreigners grew
dramatically in the 1960s and by the early 1970s that number exceeded the amount of gold held
by the United States. As a result, the depletion of foreign exchange reserves and the
accumulation of foreign debt forced the United States to end its policy of exchanging gold for
dollars at $35 per ounce. And that was the death of the Bretton Woods system.
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1. Weaknesses of the system were capital movement restrictions throughout the Bretton
woods years ,government needed to limit capital flows in order to have a certain extent of
control
2. Another negative aspect was the pressure Bretton woods put on the united states, which
was not willing to supply the amount of gold the rest of the world demanded ,because the
gold reserve decline the confidence in the dollar.
3. There was note nough gold available to allow people to buy all the new goods and service
that could be produced .and the gold that was available was mainly located in the soviet
union.
4. The success of Bretton woods system was essentially based on the un condition al supply
of dollars by US. How ever US could not do it for along time as it was still under the
system of gold standard.
C. The Floating Exchange Rate regime
A floating exchange rate is a regime where the currency price of a nation is set by the for ex
market based on supply and demand relative to other currencies. This is in contrast to a fixed
exchange rate, in which the government entirely or predominantly determines the rate.
Under a flexible or freely floating exchange rate system the monetary authorities do not
intervene in the foreign exchange market. The price of a currency is allowed to rise or fall
according to prevailing demand and supply conditions. In other words, the exchange rate adjusts
to clear the market and, as a result, balance of payments equilibrium is achieved automatically.
Thus, debit items in the current and capital accounts are equal to the corresponding credit items
as payments to foreign residents are exactly equal to receipts from foreign residents.
ADVANTAGE OF FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE:
Autonomy of monetary authorities:
Boost international liquidity
Equilibrium provider to balance of payment
Flexible monetary policy
Improvement in current account position
Market forces of demand and supply
Optimum utilizing of monetary resource
Protects domestic economy
Reflects the true position of account
Support planned economic development
DISADVANTAGE OF FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE:
Increases exchange rate volatility
Increases the exchange rate risk
Inflationary pressures
Makes the economy more vulnerable
Monetary disorder in the economy
Reduce the volume of international trade
Serious impact on the economic structure
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Speculative capital movements
Speculative capital movements
Worsen the balance of payments deficit
1.2. The case for and against fixed versus floating exchange rates
i. The Case for Floating Exchange Rates
There are three arguments in favor of floating exchange rates:
• Monetary policy autonomy
• Symmetry
• Exchange rates as automatic stabilizers
Monetary Policy Autonomy
Floating exchange rates: – Restore monetary control to central banks. Allow each country to
choose its own desired long-run inflation rate
Symmetry
Floating exchange rates remove two main asymmetries of the Bretton Woods system and allow:
– Central banks abroad to be able to determine their own domestic money supplies
– The U.S. to have the same opportunity as other countries to influence its exchange rate
against foreign currencies
Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers
Floating exchange rates quickly eliminate the “fundamental disequilibriums” that had led to
parity changes and speculative attacks under fixed rates.
ii. The Case against Floating Exchange Rates
There are five arguments against floating rates:
• Discipline
• Destabilizing speculation and money market disturbances
• Injury to international trade and investment
• Uncoordinated economic policies
• The illusion of greater autonomy
Discipline
Floating exchange rates do not provide discipline for central banks.
– Central banks might embark on inflationary policies (e.g., the German hyperinflation of the
1920s).
The pro-floaters’ response was that a floating exchange rate would bottle up inflationary
disturbances within the country whose government was misbehaving.
Destabilizing Speculation and Money Market Disturbances
Floating exchange rates allow destabilizing speculation.
– Countries can be caught in a “vicious circle” of depreciation and inflation.
Advocates of floating rates point out that destabilizing speculators ultimately lose money.
Floating exchange rates make a country more vulnerable to money market disturbances.
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Injury to International Trade and Investment
Floating rates hurt international trade and investment because they make relative international
prices more unpredictable:
– Exporters and importers face greater exchange risk.
– International investments face greater uncertainty about their payoffs
. --Supporters of floating exchange rates argue that forward markets can be used to protect
traders against foreign exchange risk.
– The skeptics replied to this argument by pointing out that forward exchange markets would be
expensive.
Uncoordinated Economic Policies
• Floating exchange rates leave countries free to engage in competitive currency depreciations.
Countries might adopt policies without considering their possible beggar-thy-neighbor aspects.
The Illusion of Greater Autonomy
• Floating exchange rates increase the uncertainty in the economy without really giving
macroeconomic policy greater freedom. A currency depreciation raises domestic inflation due to
higher wage settlements.
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can facilitate the achievement of a higher rate of growth. The greater uncertainty and risk under
the flexible exchange system, in contrast, is likely to impede the long- term capital flows.
No Adverse Effect of Speculation:
Since the exchange rate remains stable under the fixed exchange system, there is little scope for
speculation and the consequent adverse effects. The advocates of fixed exchange system point
out that the speculation is destabilising under the flexible exchange system. The speculation is
said to be destabilising, if speculators purchase a foreign currency when exchange rate is rising,
and sell it when exchange rate is falling in the expectation that the exchange rate will change
even more in the same direction.
Confidence in the Strength of Currency:
This exchange system does not involve appreciation or depreciation of currency. There is no fear
of risk of loss due to larger holding of foreign currency, if the value of currency declines. This
imparts greater confidence in the strength of the domestic currency.
Suited to Currency Areas:
The system of fixed exchange rates is more suited to countries included in such regional
arrangements as dollar area or sterling area or Euro-area. A fixed rate of exchange between
dollar and sterling with other currencies is likely to have very positive effect on trade. BOP
adjustments, capital flows and growth.
Growth of Money and Capital Markets:
The system of stable exchange rate stimulates the growth of money and capital markets through
facilitating rapid expansion of trade and international capital flows. When there existed stable
exchange rates under gold standard, smooth flow of international lending continued and that
brought about steady expansion in international money markets.
Price Discipline:
Fixed exchange rates, involve a price discipline on the nation that is not present under a flexible
exchange system. The democratically elected governments are often tempted to follow
expansionary policies which reduce unemployment but cause inflationary pressures. A country
having a higher rate of inflation than the rest of the world is likely to face persistent BOP deficits
and loss of reserves. This cannot go on forever. Therefore, the country under a fixed exchange
rate will have to adopt measures to restrain inflation.
iv. Arguments against Fixed Exchange Rates:
The main arguments against the fixed rates of exchange are as follows:
Primacy to Exchange Stability:
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A serious defect in this system of exchange rates is that the authorities become concerned
primarily with the maintenance of exchange rate at some official level. It often results in the
sacrifice of the objectives of price stability and full employment.
International Transmission of Economic Variations:
The fixed or stable exchange rates can be responsible for transmitting the economic disturbances
in one country to another. Suppose there are deflationary conditions in one country. It will export
its low-price goods to other countries. The industries of foreign countries, faced with competition
from cheap goods, will be forced to lower their prices.
Need to Build Exchange Reserves:
The necessity of maintaining the exchange rate at an official level makes the authorities to
undertake pegging operations. For this purpose, it is necessary to maintain sufficient reserves of
foreign currencies. Unless these reserves are maintained, a country faced with BOP deficit will
have to depend upon devaluation.
Heavy Burden upon the Authorities:
If a country is under continuous pressure on account of the BOP deficit, the government or
monetary authority may not be in a position to mobilise sufficient international liquid resources
for undertaking the pegging operations. In the event of failure to mobilise reserves of foreign
currencies, the home currency has to be devalued.
Difficulty in Building Up of Exchange Reserves:
Under a fixed exchange system, every country is required to build up idle stock of foreign
currencies. It necessitates the BOP surplus at least for some years. The LDC’s will find it
difficult to have BOP surpluses for building up sufficient foreign exchange reserves. It is often
beyond their capacity to even offset the persistent BOP deficit.
Possibility of Speculation:
It is generally believed that in a system of fixed exchange rate, there is little scope for
speculation in foreign exchange. In this connection, it must be recognised that speculation,
undoubtedly, will not occur in respect of variations in exchange rates but the speculators can still
make anticipations about the timing and extent of possible devaluation or about the timing and
scale of pegging operations.
Exchange Controls
The policy of fixed or stable exchange rates requires quite complicated exchange control
mechanism. This can result in misallocation of economic resources, bureaucratic inefficiency
and corruption.
No Solution of BOP Problem:
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The policy of fixed exchange rates cannot help in resolving the problem of BOP deficit. It simply
suppresses it through the government intervention. The forces underlying the BOP
disequilibrium remain to be tackled through monetary, fiscal and other policies. Under this
system, the entire attention is paid to the stabilization of exchange rate rather than dealing with
the BOP disequilibrium..
Suited only of Short Period:
The policy of fixed exchange rates cannot be pursued as a long-term policy. As technological
and structural changes take place, the official rate of exchange may be rendered unrealistic. The
BOP difficulties and fluctuations in international commodity prices can force the different
countries to revise the exchange rates.
Greater Need of Institutional Arrangements:
In case of a flexible exchange system, the BOP adjustments can take place automatically through
free movements of exchange rates. But in the fixed exchange system, the BOP adjustments
require accommodating transactions.
1.3. Exchange rate regimes in Practice: Pegged system and currency boards
A currency board is an extreme form of a pegged exchange rate. Management of the exchange
rate and the money supply are taken away from the nation's central bank, if it has one. In
addition to a fixed exchange rate, a currency board is also generally required to maintain
reserves of the underlying foreign currency .
Under a currency board, the management of the exchange rate and money supply are given to a
monetary authority that makes decisions about the valuation of a nation’s currency. Often, this
monetary authority has direct instructions to back all units of domestic currency in circulation
with foreign currency. When all domestic currency is backed with foreign currency, it is called
a 100% reserve requirement. With a 100% reserve requirement, a currency board operates
similarly to a strong version of the gold standard.
The currency board allows for the unlimited exchange of the domestic currency for foreign
currency. A conventional central bank can print money at will, but a currency board must back
additional units of currency with foreign currency. A currency board earns interest from foreign
reserves, so domestic interest rates usually mimic the prevailing rates in the foreign currency.
The primary motivation for currency pegs is to encourage trade between countries by
reducing foreign exchange risk. Profit margins for many businesses are low, so a small shift in
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exchange rates can eliminate profits and force firms to find new suppliers. That is particularly
true in the highly competitive retail industry.
Countries commonly establish a currency peg with a stronger or more developed economy so
that domestic companies can access broader markets with less risk. The U.S. dollar, the euro,
and gold have historically been popular choices. Currency pegs create stability between trading
partners and can remain in place for decades. For example, the Hong Kong dollar has been
pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1983.
Reference
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1. Dutta, Soumitra (2005). The Network Readiness Index: 2005. Published by the World
Economic Forum, Geneva: Switzerland.
2. The Heritage Foundation/WSJ (2006). Economic Freedom Index. Published by The
Heritage Foundation, NE Washington, DC.
3. IDC/World Times (2005). Information Society Index: Measuring the Global Impact of
Information Technology and Internet Adoption. Published by World Times, USA.
4. ITU (2003). ITU Digital Access Index: World’s First Global ICT Ranking. Published by
ITU, Geneva: Switzerland.
5. AMEInfo (2006). Etisalat reaches out as key DSS Sponsor. July 5, 2006. Retreived on
July 10, 2006 at http://www.ameinfo.com/ 90732.html.
6. Etisalat Annual Reports (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005). Published by Etisalat,
United Arab Emirates: Dubai.
7. Madar Research Group, Quarterly Report. December 2005–January 2006 issue.
Published by Madar, UAE: Dubai.
8. ITU (2005). “What is state of ICT access around the world?” World Summit on the
Information Society, Tunis 2005.
9. Consult Etisalat’s website at www.etisalat.co.ae
10. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/bretton-woods-
agreement/#:~:text=The%20Bretton%20Woods%20System%20is,for%20currencies
%20around%20the%20world.
11. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency_board.asp
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