C18 Example 18.2

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Quarter Quarter Average of the Seasonal y^2 Y

(t) Same Quarters Factor


of Each Year
demand (y)
1 I 1200 4,700 1.5 1,440,000 -2817 Y13
2 II 1,000 4,000 4 1,000,000 -3467 Y14
3 III 1,100 3,900 9 1,210,000 -4117 Y15
4 IV 1,100 4,300 16 1,210,000 -4767 Y16
5 I 1,500 25 2,250,000 -5417
6 II 1,300 36 1,690,000 -6067
7 III 1,200 49 1,440,000 -6717
8 IV 1,400 64 1,960,000 -7367
9 I 2,000 81 4,000,000 -8017
10 II 1,700 100 2,890,000 -8667
11 III 1,600 121 2,560,000 -9317
12 IV 1,800 144 3,240,000 -9967
78 16,900 16,900 650 24,890,000
6.5 1408.333333

b= -650
a= 5633.3333333
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.966016
R Square 0.933186
Adjusted R 0.926505
Standard E 363.8778
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 18493221 18493221 139.6695 3.372E-07
Residual 10 1324071 132407.1
Total 11 19817292

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 441.6667 223.9513 1.972155 0.076869 -57.32793 940.6613 -57.32793 940.6613
X Variable 359.6154 30.42899 11.81818 3.372E-07 291.8154 427.4154 291.8154 427.4154

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