7.

5 Trip Generation
Definitions of Terms
Home-based work (HBW) trip – a trip for which the purpose is to go from home
to work or from work to home
Home-base other (HBO) trip – a trip whose purpose is to go from home to
another location other than work (e.g., shopping, school, theater) or from non-work
locations to home.
Non-Home based (NHB) trip - a trip for which neither trip end is at home

Figure 7.4.1 Difference between HBW, HBO, NHB

Exercise: Which of the following activities is/are HBW, HBO, NHB?

Production – the ability of a zone to generate trip ends. For all non-home-based
trips, productions are synonymous with origins.
Attraction – the ability of a zone to attract trip ends. For non-home-based trips,
attractions in a zone can be considered synonymous with trip destinations in that zone.
Origin – a point at which a trip begins.
Destination – a point at which a trip ends.
 Figure 7.4.2. Trip Production and attractions

Growth Factor Method

The number of trips is assumed to be influenced by several variables like population,
car ownership, or income.

where:

Ti = current trip generation or attraction of zone i

T’i = future trips in zone i

Fi = growth rate of zone i

Pi = population of zone i

Mi = index of activity of zone i (e.g., car ownership, income)

T’i, P’i, M’i – future values

Ti, Pi, Mi – present values

Example: Consider a zone with 250 households with cars and 250 households without
cars. Assuming we know the average trip generation rates of each group:

Car-owning households produce: 6.0 trips/day

Non-car-owning households produce: 2.5 trips/day

Assume in the future that all households will have a car. Also, assume that income and
population remain constant. Estimate the future number of trips in the zone.

Solution:
Determine first the current no. of trips per day
 The growth factor can be estimated as

Therefore, the number of future trips can be estimated as

Category Analysis/Cross-Classification Analysis

Cross-classification puts households into groups to use important demographics that
are masked when using regression models.
Such socio-economic characteristics include
Persons/Households
Income
Vehicle Units

Example: Twenty households in a city were sampled for household income, autos per
household, and trips produced.

Solution:
Develop matrices connecting income to automobile available (use the table below), and
also draw a graph connecting trips per household to income. How many trips will a
household with an income of 10,000 pesos per month owning one auto make per day?
Identify the household sample as per cell categories provided in the table:

The average number of trips the household generates in each cell is calculated. For
example, the average trip rate for households with two or more autos and an income
between Php 12,000 and Php 15,000 is 11.5 because households 16 and 17 together
make a total of 33 trips. These average rates are shown.
 A household with Php 10,000 income and one auto per household will make 7.5 trips per
day.

Regression model

where:

Xi = a factor (usually demographic) that explains the level of trip-making

ai = coefficient or constant that converts the factors into the number of trips T

Examples:
A small study area represented by six traffic zones has the following characteristics:

Set up a linear regression equation, illustrate the data, calculate R2.

Solution:
The solution to this problem can be done using MS Excel or any other similar program.
Hence the trip production (T) as a function of the car ownership(CO) is given by the
equation.
Multiple Regression Analysis
Develop the multiple linear regression model to estimate the no. of trips attracted (y) to
the cities/municipalities in Metro Manila using the available office floor space (x1) and the
no. of off-street parking spaces (x2).

Solution:
Each of the independent variables can be treated individually. Hence, the correlation
Each of the independent variables can be treated individually. Hence, the correlation
between the trip attractions and the office floor space is

For the Off-Street Parking Spaces,

 Using multiple regression, the model gives

Question: Which is the best model based on the analysis, considering the correlation
coefficient and t-values?

Note: The student must interpret the results to estimate the trip generation using
regression analysis. Hence, a sound knowledge of probability and statistics is imperative.

Recommended Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6JsaC5Hxuk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=i6JsaC5Hxuk)

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6JsaC5Hxuk)