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Absolute Return: The Way To Make Money in Emerging Markets?
Absolute Return: The Way To Make Money in Emerging Markets?
Emerging Markets?
Unconventional Thinking -
BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return Fund
The ability to generate positive returns irrespective of market conditions BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return
Fund
• Fully flexible investment approach
• Experienced team with proven track record in long/short strategies Investment
Global Emerging Markets
Region
The smoothing of volatility through UCITS hedge-fund structure Co-manager Henry Wigan
SMALL
The freedom to focus on best ideas Absolute Return
Style
• Identifying the best opportunities within Emerging Markets, independent Long/Short
of arbitrary benchmark constraints Liquidity Daily Dealing
• Exploiting vast market inefficiencies
Exposure Net -10% to +20%
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Emerging Markets: Zero Return over Five Years
Time Period MSCI Emerging Markets Average EM Manager % of Managers Underperforming Index
Is it GDP and developed market performance…? No Is it GDP and emerging market performance…? No
0,5 12,0%
South Africa Brazil R2 = 0.07
0,4 Chile
10,0% Hong Kong
0,2
Mexico Taiwan
0,1 6,0%
Singapore
0 Korea
4,0%
-0,1 Argentina
Thailand
-0,2 2,0%
-0,3
0,0%
10 11 12 15 18 20 21 23 25 26 29 32 35 42 43 105
1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0%
Years to 2004 Real GDP growth 1980-2010
3 35 China
R2 = 0.0033 R2 = 0.6567
2 30
Real Dividend Growth
1 25
0 Annual Dilution 20
Russia
-1 15
-2 10 India
4
Many Investors Perceive “Growth” as a Winning Strategy - Reality is Different
• Although the Team are not ‘value’ investors, a focus on valuation is essential
• Empirical evidence shows that even poorly run state-owned companies outperformed ‘stories, themes & dreams’ due to initial
undervaluation
• The difference between a good stock and a good company often lies in the valuation
600
Performance (re-based to 100)
500
471
400 421
343
300
200
100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MSCI Emerging Markets Value MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets Growth
5
A Wider Perspective Reveals Market Inefficiency (I)
• Focus on cash-flow paints a different story to earnings and undermines a typical Emerging Markets sales pitch
• The BlackRock Emerging Markets Specialist Team seeks to discover opportunities in the ‘perception-reality gap’
70
60
50
40
30
20
The ‘Perception-Reality Gap’
10
6
A Wider Perspective Reveals Market Inefficiency (II)
Valuations vs History
• Perceived ‘safe havens’ are the most expensive that they have ever been
• ‘Safe havens’ has become a euphemism for crowded trades – one of the quickest ways to lose money
100% 99% 99% Expensive
100%
90%
80%
Percentile Ranking
70% 65%
60%
50% 47%
40% 36%
33% 32%
30% 27%
22%
20% 16%
13%
10% 4%
0%
Cheap
• Is the valuation of a Colombian, 90% state-controlled oil company fair, relative to the global opportunity set?
• Looking beyond headlines and the mindless 24-hour news-cycle uncovers opportunities
8
“Quality”: Now Is Not The Time To Buy
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5 Cheap
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Global Perception is Contradicted by Market Realities
Countries with low or even negative free cash flow yields, such as Brazil and China, have underperformed not only the emerging
market universe but even Greece
140
130
Performance (re-based to 100)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
déc. 2011 févr. 2012 avr. 2012 juin 2012 août 2012 oct. 2012
Source: Bloomberg. Bovespa, Shanghai A-Share and Athens Stock Indices, USD terms rebased to 100, December 2012
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The Hedge Fund Structure Built For These Times
Realised Volatility
BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return 6%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 22%
120% 115%
100%
80%
64% 59%
60%
37% 37% 39% 34% 35%
40% 34%
21% 21%
20%
0%
-20% -11%
-12% -20% -13% -18%
-25% -22%
-40% -30% -31%
-35%
-60%
-64%
-80%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Economics Themes
- A sound economy is essential to corporate success - A means for justifying overvalued stocks
Valuation Momentum
- Proven determinant of Global Emerging Market returns - Leads to crowded trades
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Emerging Markets Specialist Team: Performance
3 year percentile
Fund Name
ranking
BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund, inc2 19%
BGF Emerging Europe Fund3 27%
2Peer group Lipper Emerging Market Funds to February 2012 when Sam Vecht stopped managing the portfolio
3Morningstar Emerging Europe peer group (EMEA Funds) to December 2012
4Performance shown relates to the BlackRock Middle East and North Africa Fund launched in 2007 which has a different investment universe to the BlackRock Emerging Frontiers
Fund. Performance is shown inclusive of expenses, gross of fees. The Fund merged with the Eurasian Frontiers Fund to form the BlackRock Emerging Frontiers Fund on the 1st
October 2011. As at 31st December 2012 5 Launch date 7th September 2011. As at 31st December 2012
10% 20%
8% 15%
6%
10%
4%
2% 5%
0% 0%
-2%
-5%
-4%
-6% -10%
-8% -15%
Source: BlackRock 31st December 2012. Gross Exposures are calculated as a percentage of total gross. Portfolio weights do not necessarily represent current or future portfolio holdings.
*Companies which derive revenues from more than one Frontier Market
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Appendix
BlackRock Emerging Markets Specialist Team
Marc Cox Fiona Ellard Emily Fletcher Gordon Fraser Denis I. Kalugin
Strategist (11) Strategist (26) Africa (6) Asia (6) Frontiers (1)
Russia/Commodities (7) Dealer (24) North Asia/GCC (6) LatAm/Macro (9) China (1)
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BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return: Portfolio Positioning
Weight Weight
Source: Blackrock 31st December 2012. Portfolio weights do not necessarily represent current or future portfolio holdings. Reference to the names of each company mentioned is
merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
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BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return: Facts and Figures
Net exposure range -10% - +20% -4% Country positions 15 – 21 (current 16)
The team responsible for managing the BSF Emerging Markets Absolute Return Fund has direct experience of taking short positions in the following jurisdictions: Abu
Dhabi, Bahrain, Brazil, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Dubai, Egypt, Hungary, Israel, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Oman,
Poland, Qatar, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, Vietnam. In addition, we have shorted companies listed in developed markets which have the majority of
economic activity in the following countries: Iraq, Libya, Mali, Syria, Tanzania, Ukraine, Sierra Leone
Current positions are as at 31st December 2012 and do not necessarily represent current or future portfolio positions. Typical portfolio characteristics are for illustrative
purposes and are subject to change in view of prevailing market conditions
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BlackRock Emerging Markets Specialist Team: Investment Process
Emerging Market
Market Cap filter $1bn and $5m Liquidity filter*
Universe
40-70 Positions*
Portfolio
*Values are typical and may change with market conditions
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Macroeconomic Research: Driving Country Views
+
(2) Macroeconomic Analysis
(cf. Macro Insight Presentation)
+
(3) BlackRock Network
20
Company Research: Time On The Ground Is Invaluable
* Since 2010, the GEM Team has conducted over 1,500 additional meetings with companies in Emerging Markets. Excludes conference calls. 31st December 2012
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BlackRock Emerging Markets Specialist Team: How we pick stocks
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Portfolio Construction: Appropriately scaled positions
Example Positions
1 2 3
23
Risk Analytics: Deliberate Exposure, Diversified Portfolio
- Independent and continuous risk monitoring by Risk and Quantitative Analytics (RQA) Team
- Focus on reduction of unintended exposures
- Managing risk a core part of team DNA
Stock
Market
Industry
Style
Country
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Differentiated Strategies for Discerning Investors
Source: BlackRock, 31st December 2012. *Closed-end, London-listed investment trust with limited flexibility to take short positions.
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Notes
The following notes should be read in conjunction with the attached document:
1. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton
Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock
is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
2. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. All financial investments
involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the
case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
3. Mandates we manage may be exposed to finance sector companies, as a service provider or as counterparty for financial contracts. In recent months, liquidity
in the financial markets has become severely restricted, causing a number of firms to withdrawn from the market, or in some extreme cases, becoming
insolvent. This may have an adverse affect on the mandates we manage.
4. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being
made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily
reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
5. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been
prepared in connection with any such offer.
6. This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FSA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
7. Subject to the express requirements of any client-specific investment management agreement or provisions relating to the management of a fund, we will not
provide notice of any changes to our personnel, structure, policies, process, objectives or, without limitation, any other matter contained in this document.
8. No part of this material may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording or
otherwise, without the prior written consent of BlackRock.
UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED, ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS CURRENT AS AT 31 st December 2012
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