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16 - Chapter 6 - Summary and Suggestions
16 - Chapter 6 - Summary and Suggestions
16 - Chapter 6 - Summary and Suggestions
This chapter presents the overall summary of the study by highlighting the key
findings in accordance with the objectives of the study. Subsequently, the second and
third sections of this chapter provide suggestions and conclusions of the study.
Finally, the scope for further research are presented at the end of this chapter
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occasional faulty assessment of their own interests and true wishes, the relevant facts
that they tend to ignore, and the limits of their ability to accept advice and to live with
the decisions they make. In the long run, Behavioural Finance would certainly help in
building better models.
The present study “Behavioural biases and the investment decision - A study
on Individual Investors in Visakhapatnam City” has been undertaken to identify and
measure the impact of behavioural biases on the investment decisions of individual
investors. The following objectives are identified for the study:
It is found from the study that 76.3% of individual investors are males and
23.8% are females. This conveys that currently, the proportion of female participation
in the securities market is low.
The marital status of respondents revealed that 84.5% are married and 15.5%
of individual investors are unmarried. It shows that married investors are investing
more in the securities market with the hope of earning.
It is found that 56.5% of the respondents say that only one member is earning
in their house. 33.3% of the sample represents that there are two earning members in
the house. 8.8% shows that there are three earning members in the house. Only a few
respondents are expressed that they have more than three members who earn income
in their house.
When the respondents were asked about their monthly income, their responses
revealed that the majority i.e. 43.8% have a monthly income between Rs. 40,000 –
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Rs.80,000, 33.3% have monthly income less than Rs. 40,000 and 17.3% have Rs.
80,000 – 120000 monthly income. It is observed that only few respondents are having
a monthly income above Rs. 120,000.
The monthly savings of the majority of respondents i.e. 44.8% are between
Rs.10000-20000 and 30% of respondents are saving less than Rs. 10000, followed by
14% of the respondents fall under Rs.20,000-Rs.30,000. This conveys that the low
amount of savings of the respondents might restrict their participation in the securities
market.
It is found that 80.5% of the respondents are new generation investors and
19.5% of the respondents are hereditary investors.
It is found that the 55.5% constitute to long term investors and 19.8% of
respondents pertain to all category (include long term, short term, and day trader),
13.5 % of respondents belong to day trader and only 11.3% of respondents come
under the category of short term investor.
It is observed that the 43% have invested their 10% to 20% of savings in the
securities market, 40% of the respondents invested less than 10% of their savings, 8%
of the respondents invested their 20% to 30% of savings and 9% respondents invested
more than 30% of their savings in Indian securities market.
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ranging 1-3 years in Bonds/Debentures, Preference shares, Equity Shares and ETF’s
respectively. 47.5% are preferred less than 1 year of investment horizon in
derivatives.
It is found that 45.3% of the respondents are aware about the online trading
portal and prefer it to buy and sell their shares, followed by 34% of investors have
opted both (online and offline trading) and 20.8% of the respondents are interested to
trade with stock brokers only.
It is observed that the 27.8% of investors have a passion to trade daily basis,
followed by 21.3% respondents are trading on monthly basis, 17.5% of them have
opted to trade on weekly basis, 12.3% of investors used to trade on annually. 8.5% of
respondents belong to half-yearly, only 6.5% and 6.3% of traders trade on quarterly
and fortnightly basis.
When the respondents were asked about the total investment in their portfolio,
they revealed that 41.5% have invested less than Rs.500,000 rupees in their portfolio.
30% of the respondents specified that their total investment in stock market between
Rs.500,000-Rs.10,00,000 rupees, followed by 24.8% invest Rs.10,00,000-
Rs.15,00,000 rupees respectively. Only 2% and 1.8% of the investors have invested
around Rs.15,00,000-Rs.20,00,000 rupees and more than Rs.20,00,000 rupees in their
portfolio.
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companies and 11.5% of the respondents are fascinated towards making investment in
more than 15 companies.
It is revealed that 81% respondents are investing their own savings as a source
of investment, 14.5% use both the sources (own savings and borrowings) and 4.5% of
respondents utilize borrowing funds to trade in stock market.
It is observed that the 38.3% have mentioned their actual return on investment
ranged from 10% to 20% and 34.3% of the respondents getting less than 10% of
return on their investment. 19.8% of the respondents have 20% to 30% return. Only
7.8% of the respondents conveyed that they are getting 30% to 40% return on
investment on their portfolio.
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The percentage of savings invested in shares by individual investors depends on
their gender, educational qualification, occupation, monthly income, and monthly
savings
It is found that the 72.3% of the respondents felt that safety of capital as their
highly important investment objective and 69.3% of respondents marked liquidity.
67.3 % of the respondents preferred retirement planning as highly important
investment objectives. 63.5%, 60.5%, 59% and 57.3% of the respondents marked the
capital appreciation, hedge against inflation, regular income and tax benefits
respectively as highly important investment objectives. 2% of the respondents marked
retirement planning as not an important investment objective for their investment.
It is found from the study that the investment objectives such as regular
income, capital appreciation, tax benefits and liquidity have the highest mean value.
These are found to be high for investors age group above 51 years opted to invest in
the stock market according to their desired goals. Hedge against inflation is an
investment objective with a high mean value for investors in the age group 41-50
years.
It is observed that the male investors have mentioned retirement planning and
tax benefits as their preference of investment objectives.
It is observed that the investors who got married have a higher mean value for
capital appreciation, liquidity and safety of capital have opted as investment
objectives to invest in stock market and to fulfill their goals effectively.
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objective with highest mean for the respondents under the category of students,
housewives and retired employees respectively. Tax benefits also have the highest
mean for the investors who are in profession, housewives and other category
respectively. Liquidity has the highest mean values to investors, who are in
profession, students and housewives.
It is observed that the regular income and tax benefits are as an important
investment objective to the investors who earned a monthly income between
Rs.40,000-Rs.80,000. It is also observed that the investors whose monthly income
between Rs.1,60,000-Rs.2,00,000 are preferred to invest in the stock market with the
objective of safety to their capital and hedge against inflation. In addition, the
investors earned monthly income above Rs.2,00,000 opt to invest in securities with
greed of enhancing the liquidity and safety of their capital.
It is found that the internet i.e. Financial and Business websites, company
sources newspapers, financial advisors/ portfolio managers, television and
brokers/forecast analysts, and magazines/journals are considered as extremely useful
information to the investors while making an investment decision.
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It is observed that the preference of industries in selection of securities market
are in the order of the banking industry, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG),
information technology industry, financial services industry, pharmaceuticals
industry, automobile industry, power and infrastructure industry, manufacturing
industry, oil and gas industry, telecommunications industry, engineering goods
industry, capital goods industry and other industry.
It is found from the factor analysis four components are generated from the
twelve items namely price behaviour, market manipulation, lack of information and
lack of knowledge.
It is found that from the analysis that the factors extracted in the price
behaviour are high brokerage charges, poor accessibility of technology, high
transaction costs and high market volatility are highly influencing the investors when
taking an investment decision.
It is noticed that the factors loaded in market manipulation are price rigging,
insider trading, inaccurate information and uncertainty.
It is observed that the factors loaded in lack of information are lack of proper
communication through advertisements, uncertainty in companies profitability and no
proper advice form fund managers and stock brokers.
It is found from the result of factor analysis five components are generated
from the thirteen items namely Availability, Representativeness, Overconfidence,
Anchoring and Gambler’s Fallacy.
The first factor was availability. Two items are included in this factor are
prefer to buy Indian stocks than International stocks because the information of Indian
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stock is more available and consider the information from close friends and relatives
as the reliable reference for investment decisions.
The third factor was overconfidence and it is generated five items. Those are
“In uncertain times, I usually expect the best”, trade in high volume when there is a
bullish trend in the stock market, take full control and responsibility of portfolio
performance, confident of ability to pick better stocks than others and also believe that
their skills and knowledge of stock market can help them to outperform the market.
The fourth factor was anchoring and included two items like fix a target price
for buying/selling in advance before starting to invest/trade and gradually shift their
reference point when they get new information.
The fifth factor was gambler’s fallacy and it include one item they normally
able to anticipate the end of good or poor market returns at NSE/BSE.
It is also found from the factor analysis three components are extracted and
loaded from the eleven items namely Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion and Mental
Accounting.
The first factor was loss aversion and it included three items which are after a
prior loss they become more risk averse and after a prior gain they more risk seeker,
when markets are highly volatile they never enter a trade for fear of incurring loss and
making a loss of Rs.1000 gives more pain than the feel happy at making Rs.1000
profit.
The second factor was regret aversion and it composed of four items. Those
are sell the shares that have increased in value faster and avoid selling of the shares
that have decreased in value, select few stocks in their portfolio and regret if it doesn’t
perform well when the overall market is doing very good and book early profits in a
winning stock and hold a losing stock without maintaining stop-loss.
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The third factor was mental accounting and included four items. Those are
generally differentiate between capital appreciation and income, always safer to keep
investing than speculating in the market due to high risk, interested in stocks
individual gain/loss rather than total gain/loss of the portfolio and do not enter too
many trades and increase the transaction cost.
It is found from the factor analysis five components are extracted and loaded
from the fifteen items namely Confirmatory-Based Herding, Market factors,
Information-Based Herding, Cognitive Dissonance, Confirmation and Hindsight Bias.
The first factor was confirmatory based herding. Four items included in this
factor which are other investors decisions of choosing stock types have impact on
investment decision, other investors decisions of buying and selling stocks have
impact on investment decisions, investing in stocks where everyone else is investing
is less risky and other investors decisions of the stock volume have impact on
investment decision.
The second factor was market factor and it generated three items. Those are
market information is important for stock investment, study about the market
fundamentals of stocks before taking investment decisions and consider carefully the
price changes of stocks that intend to invest in securities market.
The third factor was information based herding and included four items. Those
are any IPO being oversubscribed then will also apply with less knowledge about the
company, when market crashes, follow the stock analysts suggestions completely,
often immediately sell/exit stocks when there is strong negative news in TV without
waiting further and seek signals from other traders in matters of financial knowledge
and trading behaviour.
The fourth factor was cognitive dissonance and it loaded two items. Those are
try to justify mistakes committed after making investment decisions and generally exit
early on the safer side than waiting for the target level.
The fifth factor was confirmation and hindsight bias it included two items like
“On hearing a rumour, try to obtain further information supporting the view rather
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than looking for contradicting news” and “Stock Markets will be volatile when RBI
announces its Interest Rate decisions in the economy”.
It is also observed that the females are influenced by the behavioural bias of
mental accounting to make an investment decision.
It is noticed that the marital status of investors also influencing the behavioural
biases of overconfidence to make an investment decisions effectively. Married
investors tend to overestimate their abilities which lead to biased decision making
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professional category. Also, observed that the biases such as herd behaviour, market
factors and cognitive dissonance influence the housewives.
It is found that the 54.8% of investors consider the previous rate of return on
their stock market investments while taking current investment decisions, 50.8% of
follow the economic condition of the country for their investment decisions and 50%
of them opined that their aim and objective of investment influences their investment
decisions. 48.3% of respondents follow the fundamental analysis, 49.3% of
respondents follow the technical analysis and 53.8% of respondents opined that their
gut feelings influences the investment decisions in securities market.
(F) Relationship between the Behavioural Biases and the Risk Taking Capacity
of Individual Investors
It is found that the 43% of respondents did not give any opinion on the
statement that they well aware of their risk taking capacity when it comes to any
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financial decision and 30.3% of the respondents agreed statement that they like to
invest 60% in Low risk instrument, 30% in medium risk instrument and 10% in high
risk instrument. 43.8% of investors agreed to take high risk in anticipation of high
gain from their investments and 42.3% of investors neutral to the statement that they
prefer trading in derivatives over equity and 32.8% of respondents agreed for that.
Around 59.5% of respondents agreed to trade in stocks/derivatives even if they are on
the losing side. 40.8% of the investors agreed that their financial goals are risky in
nature.
From the result of multiple regression analysis, it is found that the risk taking
capacity of individual investors mainly influenced by the biases of, overconfidence,
anchoring, loss aversion, regret aversion, herd behaviour, cognitive dissonance and
confirmation and hindsight bias.
6.2 Suggestions
The advanced age group when combines like 30-50 years have experience in
the stock market which provides confidence about their skills and knowledge and they
also follow others to get the accurate information from the advisors while making an
investment decision. The behavioural biases of availability bias, overconfidence, herd
behaviour, and cognitive dissonance are higher in this group than others. This can be
reduced by trying to improve their independent decision-making skills and avoid
following others blindly. Investors are suggested to do the proper groundwork before
investing rather than depending on others.
In comparison to males, it is observed that women save more than men. More
technical knowledge and proper guidance need to be provided to them to make
diversified investments from their savings. In this study, it is found that the females
are influenced by the behavioural bias of mental accounting to make an investment
decision. It can cause investors to irrationally distinguish between returns derived
from income and those derived from capital appreciation. It is suggested that by using
a tool like personal financial planning to keep track of all income and expenses to
avoid narrow framing bias.
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Investors who have lower education levels should reduce their overconfidence
bias by analyzing market trends. They initially opt for paper trading techniques which
can reduce their overconfidence levels. One can discuss with their friends or peer
group to get knowledge and to be an informed decision-maker. Proper planning can
help an investor to invest in a better and less risky manner.
It is seen in the study that the investors are influenced by the members in the
family and also found that differential biases exist. So it can be reduced by monitoring
themselves and by having self-control over their investment decision.
In this study, it is shown that the long term investors are more than 50% of the
total investors responded. Investments in the long term are always better than short
and medium term. It is suggested to the individual investors and high net worth
investors, they should focus on long term to get huge benefits and also remembering
that past performance need not guarantee future returns.
The percentage of savings invested in the securities market is very less due to
volatility in the market. So it is suggested to the individuals can be motivated to invest
in the market, initially they can opt like less risky investments which attract more
investors to the market. Confidence levels should be built in the investors to invest.
This can increase the flow of savings to the security market. Diversified investments
should be encouraged as it is less risky and will make the investor feel confident
about his/her returns.
Many investors show dislike towards investments in the securities market due
to the issues concerned with the safety of the capital. This is mostly because of the
volatility in the markets as well as the economy. Any issue happening around the
world can have an impact on the investments in the securities market. Therefore,
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either the company or the depository participant must provide insurance against their
investments.
There should be a reduction in the high brokerage fees and transaction fees
which can attract many investors. Special events should be conducted on generating
awareness among technical issues of online trading. Investors should be given
training about technical knowledge.
Loss aversion tends to make investors to value gains and losses differently.
This would make them to sell winning investments and ride the losers. This could be
overcome through a number of steps. Some of them include (a) Building a fairly
broad and diversified mix of investments. This could facilitate softening the impact
of market volatility on the overall portfolio (b) Reworking the investments on a
constant and regular basis so that the portfolios are appropriate for the time frame and
to deliver the desired goals and (c) Keeping away from the short-term volatility and
focusing on the overall progress of the portfolio.
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Trading generates capital gains, and capital gains result in capital gains taxes. Those
taxes – along with all of the trading fees involved – can result in a portfolio that
doesn’t perform materially better than a buy-and-hold strategy.
It is good to invest in stocks with less price and high intrinsic value rather
than keeping huge money at time in the market. This might lead to high risk. Start
slowly and try to understand the market fluctuations. Once people are capable of
managing their portfolio, they can start investing in huge amounts.
Investors should know the latest rules, guidelines and norms of SEBI while
making investment and they should also adopt a rational behaviour during investment.
As investors are not well versed with their wealth maximization and rational
choice, norms to the intermediary to protect the interest of investors may be reviewed
by regulators. Therefore, more focus to be given on the investors education program
relating to fundamental and technical analysis to protect the interest of investors.
In this study, the most influential biases on decision making are availability,
representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring, and loss aversion. They can be
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reduced by gathering proper information from the companies, reducing the biases
which come by inherent and should have self-control and self-monitoring by
attending training programs, gaining knowledge on the market and increasing their
financial literacy. Investors can be aware of the benefits of sectoral rotation. This is
another way for them to earn better returns.
Investors can reduce bias by increasing their patience levels. This can be done
by doing breathing exercises, yoga, and meditation regularly.
6.3 Conclusion
From the findings of this study, it is very clear that behavioural biases
influence individual investors while making investment decisions in the Indian
securities market. To a greater extent, availability, representativeness,
overconfidence, anchoring, loss aversion has influence on investors behaviour in
taking investment decisions. Individual investors should take professional advice
from Financial Planners and implement financial planning for their financial goals.
The behavioural biases are not necessarily meant to make investors irrational but to
know how investor processes the information and how they act on such information.
An investor to be successful should understand his/her own investment behaviour
and it starts with recognizing and avoiding behavioural biases from their own
experiences and by setting of realistic and achievable objectives through a
diversifiable portfolio and also consider all the mechanisms of the financial market.
The exploration into the other behavioural biases and also a comparative study
of cognitive bias and emotional bias would also provide meaningful insight
into the investment behaviour.
Further, this study takes into account, only the behaviour of individual
investors. In-depth coverage of institutional investors could be suggested.
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In India, the behavioural biases are mostly studied using survey-based
techniques. In contrast, the possibility of researching this area with the help
of secondary data is still untapped in the Indian context. Therefore, secondary
data can be utilized for detecting the impact of behavioural biases on other
market indicators, e.g. P/E ratio, moving average, and others.
Reference
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