Support System Management

Ing. Ridho Rahmadi, M.Sc

Magister Teknik Informatika

Universitas Islam Indonesia
ridho.rahmadi@uii.ac.id

October 13, 2017

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Acknowledgment

Thanks to Dr. Sri Kusumadewi!

Most contents in these slides are based on her material.

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Contact

ridho.rahmadi@uii.ac.id
08112951304

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Recap 1

Why we need a model?

Making a decision is not an easy task

Four phases of decision making (Turban, 2005)

1 Problem identification → a formal problem statement
2 Model design
3 Model selection
4 Implementation

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Modeling

A modelling is an attempt to
analyze a real-world problem by Why
simulating it. 1 Much easier
2 Cost and time saving
3 Risk minimizing
4 A proper approach to
uncertainty
5 Explore (enormous) possible
solutions

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Important discussions in DSS

Problem identification
Variables identification
Forecasting
Multiple decision models
Model category selection
Model management
Knowledge-based model

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Problem identification

Collecting much information

Understanding organization
culture and pattern
Surrogates: business process
& problem causes analyses

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Business process analysis

Business process is a set of

activities designed to accomplish
an organizational goal
Tools to represent
Flowchart
Block diagram
Activity diagram

Motivation: To understand the

organization

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Business process illustration

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Problem causes

To figure out possible causes of

the problem
Tool
Fishbone diagram (also
called Ishikawa or
cause-effect diagram)

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Fishbone example

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Variables identification

To identify relevant variables

Tools
Bayesian network
(probabilistic)
Influence diagram

Motivation: to observe relations

among variables

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Bayesian Network

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Bayesian Network cont’d

Joint probability function

P(G , S, R) = P(G | S, R) P(S | R) P(R)

Example: what is the probability that it is raining, given the grass is wet?

P
P(G = T , R = T ) S∈{T ,F } P(G = T , S, R = T )
P(R = T | G = T ) = = P
P(G = T ) S,R∈{T ,F } P(G = T , S, R)

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Bayesian Network cont’d

Example: what is the probability that it is raining, given the grass is wet?
Answer:
P
P(G = T , R = T ) S∈{T ,F } P(G = T , S, R = T )
P(R = T | G = T ) = = P
P(G = T ) S,R∈{T ,F } P(G = T , S, R)

where, for example:

P(G = T , S = T , R = T ) = P(G = T | S = T , R = T ) P(S = T | R = T ) P(R = T )

= 0.99 × 0.01 × 0.2
= 0.00198

P(G = T , S = F , R = T ) = P(G = T | S = F , R = T ) P(S = F | R = T ) P(R = T )

= 0.8 × 0.99 × 0.2
= 0.1584

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 0.00198TTT + 0.1584TFT
P(R = T | G = T ) =
0.00198TTT + 0.288TTF + 0.1584TFT + 0.0TFF
≈ 0.35

So, the probability of raining, given that the grass is wet, is approximately
0.35.

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Influence diagram

A generalization of Bayesian
Network; not only probabilistic,
but also decision making.
Node types
Decision (rectangle)
Uncertainty/chance (oval)
General/deterministic
(rounded rectangle)
Objective/value (diamond)

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Influence diagram cont’d

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Influence diagram cont’d

An example:
Suppose a company director would like to make a decision based on the
following criteria:
price
investation
support to company productivity
product availability

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Influence diagram cont’d

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Model management

Practically,
A DSS can employ a multiple models
Each model performs different tasks in decision making
Thus, the models need to be managed → model base management system.

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DSS components

Turban, et al (2005):
Data management
Model management
External models
Knowledge-based subsystem
User interface

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Model Management

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Model Management

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Data management system

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Model management system

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User interface system

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Knowledge-based system

knowledge-based subsystem
to support other subsytems
Some artificial intelligence
approaches are suitable
E.g., Expert system →
qualitative inference

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 Any questions?

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