Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Folli Follie Marfin Invest
Folli Follie Marfin Invest
Folli Follie Marfin Invest
Company update
Investment Research
8 June 2011
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Lower valuation on domestic macro woes; Buy rating remains on valuation grounds
Following the release of 1Q 2011 results and the EGM approval of the EUR84.6m share capital increase, we have modified our forecasts and valuation model accordingly. We have factored in a weaker domestic environment and the impact of rising raw material prices (silver, gold) on the gross margin. As a result of the above, we have trimmed our EPS estimates by 2% in FY11 and set our target price at EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously), which implies a 24% upside potential on current price levels. Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. We stick to our Buy rating on valuation grounds and the expected benefits from the strategic partnership with Fosun. We reduced our revenue forecasts for FY11 and FY12 (by 1.1% and 1.9% respectively), mainly to reflect the impact of the new austerity measures and the operation of a new discount outlet village in Athens in June 2011 on the performance of the retail business in Greece. We now look for revenues of EUR1,014m for FY11 (+2.4% y-o-y) as the opening of new stores in the luxury segment and increased tourist inflows will more than offset the weakness in wholesale and retail activities this year. For 2012, we see revenues growing by 5.0% y-o-y to EUR1,064m due to the aggressive expansion of the luxury unit in China in cooperation with the new strategic investor and the positive impact of 2012 Olympic Games on Links of Londons sales. On the EBITDA front, we have reduced our FY11 forecasts by 1.8% to EUR213m to reflect lower revenues and elevated pressure on gross margins from increasing raw material prices (specifically gold and silver). The underlying margin is seen at 21% from 19.5% in 2010, as the synergies from the triple merger and some non-recurring costs that burdened FY10 profits, will improve profitability margins in FY11. Finally, net profits are seen standing at EUR112.9m (+35.5% y-o-y) in 2011, but 2.0% below our previous forecast, while we anticipate an 11% increase to EUR125.7m for 2012 (very close to our previous projections). Folli Follie Group announced a weak set of financials for 1Q 2011, which however exceeded our estimates in all lines. Sales came in at EUR219.2m (-4.4% y-o-y), EBITDA stood at EUR43.5m (-19.9% y-o-y) and net income dropped 21.4% y-o-y to EUR22.9m (18.9% above our estimates). Despite the late timing of Easter, quarterly results revealed a deteriorating environment for the retail division in Greece, encouraging signs for the duty-free operation and pressure on the profitability of the luxury business due to rising raw material prices (gold, silver). On May 19th, the management of Folli Follie (FF) signed a MoU with Fosun International Group, an agreement that among other is expected to assist Folli Follie expanding its presence in China. We are positively inclined on this strategic partnership given the prospects of the Chinese market (economic growth, rising living standards) and Fosuns high financial capacity and access in distribution channels in China. However, we do not expect at this stage any financial benefits seen in 2011 as the two companies have not yet agreed on the scope of their partnership. Recall that on May 26th, shareholders approved the terms of the share capital increase by EUR84.6m through the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares in favour of Fosun, which will hold a 9.5% stake in Folli Follie.
Analyst(s): Dimitris Birbos +30 210 81 73 392 dbirbos@ibg.gr
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) Abs. perf. 1 mth Abs. perf. 3 mth Abs. perf. 12 mth
676 61 49%
12/12e 1,064 229 21.5% 206 19.4% 130 12.2% 473 0.6 2.1 5.9 1.1 4.9 4.9 5.5 5.2 0.8 15.4% 0.9% 2.15 13.51 0.10
vv 16 ds v dv sdy
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Produced by:
Investment Case
Chinese investor to facilitate expansion plans in China
On May 19th, the management of Folli Follie (FF) signed a MoU with Fosun International Group, an agreement that is expected to assist Folli Follie expanding its presence in China, among others. In particular, Fosun will support Folli Follies efforts to penetrate the fast growing Chinese luxury market in the following ways: 1) Brand awareness: Fosun is engaged in the mass media and advertising industry and can help FF to build its brand name in the country, while it operates one of the biggest online shops in China. 2) Distribution network: Fosun has an extensive network of jewellery shops while it has established cooperation with Bailian group, one of the largest retail groups in China, which operates department stores, shopping malls and convenience stores. Folli Follie could distribute its products (Folli Follie and Links of London brands) through these points of sale, while Fosun can provide access to premium Chinese customers. The strategic cooperation between the two groups will also entail tourism and retail trade in Greece and specifically the attraction of Chinese tourists in the country. This incoming tourist flow will benefit duty free sales (Chinese are regarded as high-spenders tourists) as well as the luxury segment. Recall that Fosun acquired 9.5% of Club Med, which has also presence in Greece (three tourist resorts). FF stores can also operate within Club Med resorts. The two companies will present more details of their partnership in June 2011, while teams from both parties will work on the business plan and ideas on how to benefit from this cooperation. For this reason, no insight was provided for the expansionary plans in China or the financial benefits (in sales and earnings terms) for Folli Follie. Folli Follie will issue 6,360,000 new common nominal shares at EUR 13.30 (the total raised capital will amount to EUR 84.6m), with the preference right of the old shareholders cancelled, in favour of Fosun International. The company held an EGM on May 26th which approved the terms of the share capital increase. Following the completion of the share capital increase, Fosun will own a 9.5% stake in Folli Follie. The CEO of Folli Follie stated that the new equity capital will be channelled towards new investments and debt reduction. We are positively inclined on this strategic partnership given the prospects of the Chinese market (economic growth, rising living standards) and Fosuns high financial capacity and access in distribution channels in China. However, we do not expect at this stage any financial benefits seen in 2011 as the two companies have not yet agreed on the scope of their partnership.
Page 2
Page 3
EUR m Jewellery - Watch - Accessories y-o-y Travel retail y-o-y Department stores y-o-y Clothing- Footwear y-o-y Other y-o-y Eliminations Total Revenues y-o-y
Source: IBG, The company
2010 508.8 6.3% 257.2 -6.2% 143.6 -6.0% 135.3 -1.5% 7.0 391.6% -62.3 989.6 -0.3%
2011f 535.0 5.1% 284.1 10.5% 133.0 -7.4% 126.0 -6.9% 7.5 7.4% -71.9 1,013.7 2.4%
New vs. Old 0.0% 0.5% -3.5% -7.5% 0.0% -3.4% -1.1%
2012f 577.3 7.9% 310.0 9.1% 127.6 -4.0% 117.7 -6.6% 7.5 0.0% -76.2 1,064.0 5.0%
New vs. Old -0.6% 2.8% -7.7% -13.3% 0.0% -3.1% -1.9%
2013f 587.8 1.8% 321.3 3.6% 129.8 1.7% 118.3 0.6% 7.5 0.0% -77.8 1,086.9 2.1%
New vs. Old -0.2% 2.8% -7.8% -13.7% 0.0% -3.0% -1.8%
On the profitability front, a better mix in travel retail (more visitors from non-EU countries) and the increase of the contribution of the high-margin Chinese market in the luxury segment will mitigate the pressure from increased raw material prices (gold and silver) and a worsening consumer sentiment in Greece. We forecast a slight drop of 40bps in the FY11 gross margin, which is seen at 50.0%, as a result of a weak 1Q 2011, while we look for a 70bps improvement in 2012 to 50.7%. Groups gross profits are now seen at EUR507m (+1.7% y-o-y) in 2011 and EUR525m (+6.4% y-o-y) in 2012. In relation to operating profits (EBITDA), the management reiterated its guidance for synergies amounting to EUR15m from the triple merger. Recall also that 2010 opex were augmented by one-off costs of EUR5.0m relating to the triple merger, the termination of an activity in retail and other expenses associated with marketing events. We assume a lowdigit growth rate in selling (+2.1%) and administrative expenses (+3.0%) for 2011, while we have increased our forecasts on other income (from EUR30m to EUR36m), following their 10% increase in 1Q 2011. We now see groups EBITDA at EUR213m in 2011 (+10.1% y-oy), which is 1.8% below our previous forecast due to our conservative stance on revenues and gross margins. The respective margin is seen at 21% in 2011, up 150bps against last year, an improvement which is attributed to organic growth, cost synergies and nonrecurring expenses recorded in 2010. In 2012, we expect EBITDA to grow by 7.8% to EUR229m on a respective margin of 21.6%. Below the EBITDA line, we have marginally decreased our estimates on the depreciation expenses, while we keep intact our assumptions for the net financial results. Note that the group recorded net profits of EUR0.2m from investments in currency derivatives, when Folli Follie suffered losses of EUR14.m in 2010. The decrease of the statutory corporate tax rate to 20% in 2011 from 24% last year is driving the effective tax rate at 21.0% from 31.8% a year ago. Recall that Greek entities will pay a 10% special tax on the EBT of the previous year for 2011 and 2012. Finally, we look for minorities of EUR1.3m for 2011 (vs. EUR1.7m previously) due to the deteriorating performance of Attica Stores. Taking all these into account, we end up with net profits of EUR112.9m for 2011 (2.0% below our previous forecasts) and EUR125.7m for 2012 (0.4% below our old estimate). We note that our estimates implicitly call for stable FX rates and no gains/losses from FX derivatives, which means that a stronger euro and unforeseen losses from currency forward products represent a downside risk to our numbers.
Page 4
EUR m Revenues Cost of sales Gross profits Gross margin (%) Other Income Administrative expenses Selling costs Other Expenses Synergies EBIT EBIT Margin (%) Depreciation EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Net Financial Results EBT Income Tax % tax rate One-off tax charge Net income before minorities Minorities EAT after minorities Net margin (%)
Source: IBG, The company
2010 989.6 491.1 498.5 50.4% 33.1 55.5 297.8 6.6 171.7 17.3% 21.7 193.3 19.5% -47.0 124.7 34.9 28.0% 4.7 85.1 1.8 83.3 8.6%
2011f 1,013.7 506.8 506.8 50.0% 36.0 57.2 304.1 6.0 15.0 190.5 18.8% 22.3 212.8 21.0% -43.4 147.1 29.4 20.0% 3.5 114.2 1.3 112.9 11.3%
(%) 2.4% 3.2% 1.7% -40 bps 8.9% 3.0% 2.1% -8.4% 11.0% 140 bps 2.7% 10.1% 150 bps -7.5% 17.9% -15.8% -25.1% 34.2% -28.8% 35.5% 270 bps
2012f 1,064.0 524.6 539.5 50.7% 36.0 58.9 319.2 6.0 15.0 206.3 19.4% 23.0 229.3 21.6% -42.2 164.2 32.8 20.0% 4.4 127.0 1.3 125.7 11.9%
(%) 5.0% 3.5% 6.4% 70 bps 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0.0% 8.3% 60 bps 3.2% 7.8% 56 bps -3.0% 11.6% 11.6% 24.6% 11.2% 0.0% 11.4% 67 bps
2013f 1,086.9 532.6 554.3 51.0% 36.0 60.7 326.1 6.0 15.0 212.6 19.6% 23.7 236.2 21.7% -39.8 172.8 34.6 20.0% 0.0 138.2 1.5 136.7 12.7%
(%) 2.1% 1.5% 2.8% 30 bps 0.0% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 3.0% 16 bps 3.1% 3.0% 18 bps -5.6% 5.2% 5.2% -100.0% 8.8% 15.4% 8.8% 78 bps
The following table summarizes our forecast changes in the key P&L items for the period 2011-2013. The downward revision to our revenue forecasts is attributed to lower revenues from the domestic retail business (department stores, clothing/footwear), while the decrease in our estimates regarding operating and net profits for 2011 resulted from a lower gross margin due to increased raw material prices.
EUR m Revenues New Revenues Old New vs. Old (%) EBITDA New EBITDA Old New vs. Old (%) Net Income New Net Income Old New vs. Old (%)
Source: IBG
2011f 1,014 1,025 -1.1% 212.8 216.7 -1.8% 112.9 115.2 -2.0%
2012f 1,064 1,085 -1.9% 229.3 231.6 -1.0% 125.7 126.2 -0.4%
2013f 1,087 1,106 -1.8% 236.2 238.6 -1.0% 136.7 137.4 -0.5%
Page 5
Valuation
Following the release of 1Q 2011 results and the EGM approval of the EUR84.6m share capital increase, we have modified our forecasts and valuation model accordingly. We have factored in a weaker domestic environment and the impact of rising raw material prices (silver, gold) on the gross margin. As a result of the above, we have trimmed our EPS estimates by 2% in FY11 and set our target price at EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously). Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. We stick to our Buy rating on valuation grounds and the expected benefits from the strategic partnership with Fosun.
DCF Valuation
Following the signing of a strategic partnership with the Chinese group Fosun International, we are using a 3-stage DCF model for the valuation of Folli Follie Group, since we anticipate fast growth for 2011-2013 and a moderate growth path for 2014-2015. In particular, we have developed explicit cash flow estimates for the period from 2011 to 2013, predicting rapid expansion in China, which will keep working capital needs at relatively high levels. For 2014-2015 we calculate FCF by using a 2.5% growth rate and use a discount rate of 10.5% and a perpetuity growth rate of 1.5%. Following management guidance, we reduced our capex assumption to EUR20m from EUR25m. We set working capital requirements at EUR67.7m for 2011 which will be another year of aggressive expansion and gradually reduce it as we assume better receivables collection. For the calculation of net debt we used our estimates for 2011, including the cash injection by Fosun (c. EUR85m) and stick to an estimated market value of EUR20m for minorities, very close to the book value presented in groups IFRS statements.
Folli Follie Group - DCF Valuation
EUR m Sales EBIT Less: Income Tax Less: Special tax Plus: Depreciation Plus: Change in Provisions Less: CAPEX Less: (WC) Less: Investment in Associates Free Cash Flow to the Firm FCF Growth rate 2014-2015 (%) WACC Time Distance from 31.03.2011 Discount Factor PV of FCFF 2011-2015 Sum of PV of FCFF 2011-2015 Terminal Growth Rate (Perpetuity) Terminal Value (Perpetuity) Enterprise Value Less: Net Debt / (Cash) 2011e Less: Minorities (market value) Equity Value No of shares* Target price
2011f 1,013.7 190.5 29.4 3.5 22.3 0.5 20.0 67.7 0.0 92.7 10.5% 0.75 0.93 86.0 485.5 1.50% 1,012 1,498 552.3 20.0 925 66.9 13.8
2012f 1,064.0 206.3 32.8 4.4 22.8 0.0 20.0 44.1 0.0 127.8 10.5% 1.75 0.84 107.3
2013f 1,086.9 212.6 34.6 0.0 23.4 0.0 20.0 43.2 0.0 138.1 10.5% 2.75 0.76 104.9
2014f
2015f
Source: IBG, * Number of shares after the share capital increase through the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares
Page 6
Our valuation model yields a target price of EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously) for Folli Follie Group, which implies a 24% upside potential on yesterdays closing price. Note that our new target price takes into account the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares in favour of Fosun. We maintain our Buy recommendation on valuation grounds as well as groups significant growth prospects outside Greece. Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. At current levels, we believe that investors are overlooking the growth prospects of the luxury units (Folli Follie brand and Links of London), especially after the strategic partnership with Fosun. The concerns vis--vis the Japanese operation, Greeces negative economic outlook and groups liquidity levels are the main reasons for the stocks recent weak performance, in our view.
Page 7
2,300
676
Page 8
EUR m Jewellery - Watch - Accessories Travel retail Department stores Clothing- Footwear Other Revenues COGS Gross Profit Gross Margin Other Income Administrative Expenses Selling Costs Other Expenses EBIT EBIT Margin Depreciation EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Financial Results EBT Income Tax Special tax contribution Net Profit before minorities Minorities Net profit after minorities Net margin
Source: IBG, The company
1Q:11 114.4 39.0 33.8 30.4 1.6 219.2 112.4 106.8 48.7% 10.1 12.8 65.7 0.8 37.6 17.1% 6.0 43.5 19.8% -11.1 26.4 3.3 0.0 23.1 0.2 22.9 10.4%
1Q:10 115.7 38.7 36.5 37.8 0.7 229.4 112.5 116.9 51.0% 9.1 11.8 64.0 1.4 48.8 21.3% 5.5 54.3 23.7% -11.2 37.6 7.9 0.0 29.7 0.6 29.1 12.7%
y-o-y -1.1% 0.8% -7.4% -19.6% 128.6% -4.4% -0.1% -8.7% -220 bps 10.9% 8.8% 2.7% -44.5% -23.1% -420 bps 8.5% -19.9% -380 bps -29.7% -57.9% -22.2% -21.4% -220 bps
Page 9
The luxury unit (Folli Follie and Links of London brands) recorded revenues of EUR114.4m (-1.1% y-o-y) in 1Q 2011, negatively affected by the Easter period. Gross profits fell 7.4% to EUR63.9m on a respective margin of 55.9% (vs. 59.6% last year) due to increased raw material costs. Accordingly, EBITDA settled at EUR26.6m, down 30.2% y-o-y. According to management, Links of London recorded sales of EUR20m (+14% y-o-y on our numbers). The luxury unit contributed 52% of total sales and 61% of groups EBITDA in 1Q 2011. Revenues from the travel retail trade were slightly up (+0.8% y-o-y) to EUR39.0m in 1Q 2011 despite a 4% drop in traffic. Gross profits dropped 1.9% y-o-y to EUR20.5m, while the respective margin deteriorated by 150bps to 52.6% in the quarterly. Operating profitability shaped at EUR13.4m (+50.6% y-o-y) with the respective margin reaching 34.2% in 1Q 2011 from 23.2% last year. The positive surprise on the EBITDA is attributed to higher other income (from EUR4.4m in 1Q10 to EUR8.3m in 1Q11). Department stores (Attica departments & Factory Outlets) recorded sales of EUR33.8m (7.4% y-o-y), which seems rather resilient given the impact of the late timing of Easter this year and the strikes in the center of Athens. On the positive side, EBITDA was flat at EUR2.5m and therefore the margin improved to 7.3% from 6.7% a year ago. Finally, the retail and wholesale division delivered revenues of EUR30.4m (-19.6% y-o-y) and EBITDA of EUR1.5m (-70.6% y-o-y), negatively affected by the deteriorating consumer sentiment in Greece and the early Easter celebration last year. We highlight the sharp drop in the EBITDA margin in 1Q 2011 (4.9% vs. 13.4% last year).
EUR m Sales y-o-y Gross profits y-o-y Margin Ebitda y-o-y Margin
Source: IBG, The company
Jewellery - Watch Accessories Travel Retail 114.4 39.0 -1.1% +0.8% 63.9 20.5 -7.4% -1.9% 55.9% 52.6% 26.6 13.4 -30.2% 50.6% 23.2% 34.2%
Department Stores 33.8 -7.4% 9.6 -10.9% 31.7% 2.5 1.2% 7.3%
Retail / Wholesale 30.4 -19.6% 12.6 -27.1% 41.5% 1.5 -70.6% 4.9%
On the whole, we point out the positive surprise from the travel retail business (despite lower traffic) and the satisfactory performance of the luxury segment given the negative environment in Japan and the later celebration of Easter this year, while the operation of the gas stations will positively affect groups performance from 2Q11.
Page 10
Page 11
Page 12
Notes * Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj) or EBIT (adj.)= EBITDA (or EBITA or EBIT) +/- Non Recurrent Expenses/Income **Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years ***EPS (adj.) diluted= Net Profit (adj.)/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. EPS (reported) = Net Profit reported/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs.
Sector: General Retailers/Specialty retailing Company Description: Folli Follie is a diversified group active in the design, production and distribution of affordable luxury brands (watches, jewellery, other accessories), travel retail trade and wholesale and retail trade. Following an aggressive expansion strategy in the previous years, Folli Follie brand has obtained presence in 24 countries with more than 400 points of sale, while the acquisition of Links of London helped Folli Follie to put its foothold in UK and USA. The group is engaged in travel retail trade through Greeces duty free operator monopoly Hellenic Duty Free Shops (HDFS) and wholesale and retail trade in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria.
Page 13
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon. Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (takeover bid, SPO, ) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer
History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage. Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow. Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months) Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:
TODAY
SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY
-10% BEFORE
SELL REDUCE
0%
HOLD
10%
ACCUMULATE
20%
BUY
-15%
0%
5%
15%
Page 14
Disclosure Appendix
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Investment Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. Investment Bank of Greece has not entered any agreement with the subject companies for the execution of this analysis. This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. In producing its research reports, members of Investment Bank of Greece research department may have received assistance from the subject company(ies) referred to in this report. Any such assistance may have included access to sites of the issuers, visits to certain operations of the subject company(ies), meetings with management, employees or other parties associated with the subject company(ies) and the handing by them of historical data regarding the subject company(ies) (financial statements and other financial data), as well as of all publicly available information regarding strategy and financial targets. Investment Bank of Greece research personnel are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement of travel expenses from site visits to subject companies. It should be presumed that the author(s) of this report, in most cases, has had discussions with the subject company(ies) to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Investment Bank of Greece or one of its affiliates or persons connected with it may from time to time buy and sell securities referred herein. Although Investment Bank of Greece does not set a predetermined frequency for publication, if this is a fundamental research report, it is the intention of Investment Bank of Greece to provide research coverage of the subject company(ies), including in response to news affecting this issuer, subject to applicable quiet periods and capacity constraints. Investment Bank of Greece may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Investment Bank of Greece does and seeks to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firms may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities referred to in this research report are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report is intended for professional investors only and it is not to be reproduced or copied or reprinted or transmitted for any purpose without permission. We certify that this report has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy and guidelines. According to Investment Bank of Greece policies, the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece is bound by confidentiality, with the exception of data allowed to be published in accordance with the applicable laws. Investment Bank of Greece relies on information barriers to control the flow of information in one or more areas within Investment Bank of Greece organization. The communication between the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece and the other departments of the aforementioned company is restricted by Chinese Walls set between the different departments, so that Investment Bank of Greece can abide by the provisions regarding confidential information and market abuse.
Analyst Certification
The following analysts: Dimitris Birbos hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The analysts mentioned above who prepared this report have the below mentioned financial interests in the companies covered in this reportnone
Stock Ratings
You should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in the research report. Moreover, you should carefully read the entire research report to obtain a clear view of the analysts opinions and not infer its contents from the rating alone.
Buy 46% 0%
33% 0%
Accumulate 19% 4%
33% 0%
Hold 31% 8%
33% 0%
Reduce 4% 0%
0% 0%
Sell 0% 0%
0% 0%
Page 15
Rating History
1. 2. 3. 4. 24/05/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 14.60 18/04/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 14.60 29/03/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 15.40 11/01/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 15.40 (Re-initiation of coverage)
Exposure to emerging markets: The company has presence in developing markets with embedded higher FX fluctuations, while the management uses derivatives for hedging purposes that may generate unforeseen losses. Weak macroeconomic environment in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria: Current economic downturn in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria has a negative impact on retail spending, impacting the financial performance of the retail arm. High dependence of the duty free operation on tourist inflows that is out of the managements controls. Volatile tax legislation: Our forecasts and valuation are heavily dependent on any unforeseen changes in the tax legislation (VAT, corporate taxation, extraordinary taxes due to the Greeces urgent fiscal needs). Inherent business risks in wholesale activities that relate to the discontinuation of distribution agreement. Highly competitive environment within the luxury goods markets which command for continuous focus on product innovation. High gearing ratio: The company is quite leveraged which raise concern for its liquidity.
Additional disclosures
1. Additional note to our U.S. readers: This document may be distributed in the United States solely to major US institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each person that receives a copy, by acceptance thereof, represents and agrees that he/she will not distribute or otherwise make available this document to any other person. 2. All prices and valuation multiples are based on the closing of ATHEXs last session prior to the issue of this report, unless otherwise indicated. 3. Our research reports are available upon request at www.ibg.gr, on Bloombergs IBGR and ESNR functions and on Thomson Reuters website. 4. Additional information is available upon request.
Page 16
Disclaimer:
These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European Securities Network LLP (ESN). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained from various sources. ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, and neither ESN, nor its Members, nor its Members affiliates (nor any director, officer or employee thereof) shall be liable in respect of any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions. Neither the information contained in these reports nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities (related investments). These reports are prepared for the clients of the Members of ESN only. They do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive any of these reports. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in these reports and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in these reports. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose value are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. ESN, its Members and their affiliates may submit a pre-publication draft (without mentioning neither the recommendation nor the target price/fair value) of its reports for review to the Investor Relations Department of the issuer forming the subject of the report, solely for the purpose of correcting any inadvertent material inaccuracies. Like all members employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability For further details about the specific risks of the company and about the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this report/note, please refer to the latest relevant published research on single stock. Research is available through your sales representative. ESN will provide periodic updates on companies or sectors based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Unless agreed in writing with an ESN Member, this research is intended solely for internal use by the recipient. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into Australia, Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in Australia, Canada or Japan or to any resident thereof. This document is for distribution in the U.K. Only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and fall within article 19(5) of the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2005 (the order) or (ii) are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the order, namely high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This document must not be acted on or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. You shall indemnify ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) against any damages, claims, losses, and detriments resulting from or in connection with the unauthorized use of this document. For disclosure upon conflicts of interest on the companies under coverage by all the ESN Members and on each company recommendation history, please visit the ESN website (www.esnpartnership.eu) For additional information and individual disclaimer please refer to www.esnpartnership.eu and to each ESN Member websites :www.bancaakros.it www.caixabi.pt www.cajamadridbolsa.es www.cmcics.com www.degroof.be www.equinet-ag.de www.ibg.gr www.ncb.ie www.snssecurities.nl
Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 Milano Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
Equinet Bank AG Grfstrae 97 60487 Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone:+49 69 58997 410 Fax:+49 69 58997 299
Bank Degroof Rue de IIndustrie 44 1040 Brussels Belgium Phone: +32 2 287 91 16 Fax: +32 2 231 09 04
Investment Bank of Greece 24B, Kifisias Avenue 151 25 Marousi Greece Phone: +30 210 81 73 000 Fax: +30 210 68 96 325
Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, 33-5 1269-050 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 389 68 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. 3 George Dock, Dublin 1 Ireland Phone: +353 1 611 5611 Fax: +353 1 611 5781
Caja Madrid Bolsa S.V.B. Serrano, 39 28001 Madrid Spain Phone: +34 91 436 7813 Fax: +34 91 577 3770
SNS Securities N.V. Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162 P.O.Box 235 1000 AE Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 550 8500 Fax: +31 20 626 8064
CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: +33 1 4016 2692 Fax: +33 1 4596 7788