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Chapter Thirteen: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin
Chapter Thirteen: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin
Chapter Thirteen: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Prepared by: Stephen H. Penman – Columbia University
With contributions by
Nir Yehuda – Northwestern University
Mingcherng Deng – University of Minnesota
Peter D. Easton and Gregory A. Sommers – Notre Dame and Southern
Methodist Universities
Luis Palencia – University of Navarra, IESE Business School
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What You Will Learn from this Chapter
•Why growth analysis focuses on residual earnings growth and
abnormal earnings growth, rather than earnings growth
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The Big Picture for this Chapter
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What Is a Growth Company and How Is It Valued?
Growth in sales?
Growth is assets?
Growth in equity?
Growth in earnings?
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Remember the Caveat: Beware of Paying Too
Much for Growth
(Chapters 5, 6, and 7)
Value-added growth:
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A Growth Company?
General Electric Corp.: 1993-2000
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A Growth Company?
General Electric Again.: 2001-2010
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Is Nike a Growth Firm?
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The Base for Growth:
Sustainable Earnings
Otherwise called
Core Earnings
Persistent Earnings
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Cutting to the Core:
Core Earnings (or Sustainable Earnings)
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Reformulating Income Statements to Identify Core and
Unusual Items
Reformulated Operating Income Statement: Core and Unusual Items
Unusual Items
Core Operating Income Special charges
Core sales revenue Special liability accruals
Core cost of sales Nonrecurring items
= Core gross margin Asset write-downs
Core operating expenses Changes in estimates
= Core operating income from sales before tax Start-up costs expensed
Profits and losses from asset sales
Tax on core operating income from sales Restructuring charges
+ Tax as reported Profits and losses from discontinued operations
+ Tax benefit from net financial expenses Extraordinary operating items
Tax allocated to core other operating income Accounting changes
Tax allocated to unusual items Unrealized gains and losses on equity investments
= Core operating income from sales + Gains from share issues in subsidiaries
+ Core other operating income Currency gains and losses
+Equity income in subsidiaries Derivative gains and losses (operations)
Tax allocated to unusual items
+Earnings on pension assets
+Other income not from sales = Comprehensive Operating Income
Tax on core other income
= Core operating income
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Identifying Sustainable Earnings:
Items to Consider
1. Deferred (unearned) revenue
2. Restructuring charges, asset impairments, special charges
3. Research and development
4. Advertising and promotion
5. Pension expense
6. Changes in estimates
7. Realized gains and losses: Cherry Picking
8. Unrealized gains and losses on equity investments
9. Unrealized gains and losses from fair value accounting
10. Income taxes
11. “Other” income
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Watch Deferred Revenue
Firms may defer revenue into a “cookie jar” and then dip into
the cookie jar later
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Watch for Bleed Back of Restructuring and Merger Charges
Year $billions
1991 3.7
1992 11.6
1993 8.9
1994 (2.8)
1995 (2.1)
1996 (1.5)
1997 (0.5)
1998 (0.4)
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Analyze R&D
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Analyze Marketing Expenditures
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Analyze Pension Costs
_____________________________________________________________________
International Business Machines (IBM)
Components of pension expense, 2001-2004
(In millions of dollars)
2004 2003 2002 2001
Service cost 1,263 1,113 1,155 1,076
Interest cost 4,071 3,995 3,861 3,774
Expected return on plan assets (5,987) (5,931) (6,253) (6,264)
Amortization of transition asset (82) (159) (156) (153)
Amortization of prior service 66 78 89 80
cost
Actuarial losses (gains) 764 101 105 (24)
Net pension expense 95 (803) (1,199) (1,511)
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Watch the Expected Rate of Return on
Pension Plan Assets
In the 1980s, firms were using expected
rates of return of about 7%
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Watch for Gains on Pension Fund Assets
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Watch Gains and Losses on Sales of Shares
Intel
In its report for its third quarter for 1999, Intel reported net
income of $1,458 million, with no indication of unusual items. Its
cash flow statement, however, reported $556 million in gains on
sales of investments, along with a $161 million loss on
retirements of plant, as add backs to net income to calculate cash
from operations.
IBM
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Watch for Cherry Picking
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Watch for Changes in Estimates
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Watch Income Taxes
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A Reformulated Income Statement Showing Core Income:
General Mills
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Comprehensive Tax Allocation
GAAP Income Statement Reformulated Statement
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Analysis of Changes in ROCE
(1) (2)
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A Road Map
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Explaining the Changes in RNOA
Explaining RNOA
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Explaining Changes in RNOA (cont.)
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Explaining Changes in RNOA (cont.)
Pay particular attention to GM: per unit sales prices, production costs…
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Explaining Changes in RNOA:
the Calculations
The change in RNOA is explained as:
Change in RNOA Change in core sales profit Change due Change due to change in Change due
= + + +
margin at previous asset to change in other core income to change in unusual
turnover level asset turnover items
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Analyzing Changes in RNOA: Nike Inc.
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Analyzing Changes in RNOA: General Mills
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Analyzing Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage is the proportion of total costs that are fixed versus variable
Contribution Margin
Contribution Margin Ratio 1 - Variable Costs
Sales Sales
This ratio measures the change in income from a change in one dollar of sales
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Operating Leverage Measures
13-36
Analysis of Effect of Changes in Financing
Effect of Financing
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Effect of Changes in Financing: Reebok Stock Repurchase
In 1996, Reebok borrowed $600 million to repurchase stocks
1996 1995
Net operating assets 1135 1220
Net financial obligations 720 287
Common shareholders' equity 415 933
ROCE 18.90% 19.20%
RNOA 14.10% 16.90%
Net borrowing cost (NBC) 4.90% 4.80%
Financial leverage (FLEV) 0.515 0.187
Explaining ΔROCE
ROCE1996 - 0.3% - 2.8% - 2.9% x 0.187 0.328x 9.2%
-2.8%- 0.54% 3.02%
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Explaining Changes in the SPREAD
SPREAD = RNOA – NBC
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Analysis of Growth in Shareholders’ Equity:
Road Map
CSE
NOA NFO
Sales
1
ATO
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Analysis of Growth in Common Equity
ΔCSE = ΔNOA - ΔNFO
NOA = Sales x 1
ATO
1 - ΔNFO
ΔCSE= Δ Sales x
ATO
1. Growth in sales
2. Change in net operating assets that support each dollar of sales
3. Change in the amount of net debt that is used to finance the change in net
operating assets rather than equity
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Preparing Financial Statements for Forecasting
6. Analyze Growth
Now you are ready to forecast future ROCE and growth and carry out
valuations
13-42
Using Growth Analysis to Understand P/B and P/E Ratios
13-43
A Reminder: The Benchmark Case of Normal P/B and Normal P/E
V0E d 0 E
E 1
Earn0
V0E 1
Earn1 E 1
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A Normal P/E: Whirlpool Corporation
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Valuation:
2 . 15
V 0E 25 . 83 47 . 33
0 . 10
V 0E d 0 47 . 33 1 . 22
11 . 00
Earn 0 4 . 33 (approx)
V0E 47.33
10.00
Earn1 4.75 (approx)
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P/E Ratios Different from Normal
• If earnings are expected to grow faster than the cost of capital (cum-dividend),
P/E > Normal
• If earnings are expected to grow slower than the cost of capital (cum-dividend),
P/E < Normal
OR
OR
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The P/E Ratio and the P/B Ratio
OR
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How do P/E and P/B Articulate?
P/B Ratio
High High Low
23,146 10,848
P/E Ratio
Low
10,849 23,147
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Median E/P for P/B Portfolios: 1968-85
_______________________________________________________
P/B Median Median
Portfolio P/B E/P
_______________________________________________________
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Fill Out the Cells
(this is not TIC-TAC-TOE)
P/B
High High Normal Low
A B C
Normal
P/E
D E F
Low
G H I
Which cell do growth firms fall in ?
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The Solution
P/B
High Normal Low
FRE>0 FRE=0 FRE<0
FRE>CRE
High
A B C
FRE>0 CRE<0 FRE<0
A
CRE<FRE
B
FRE=0
C
CRE<FRE
Normal
FRE=CRE
D E F
P/E
G H I
FRE<CRE
Low
The market gave Nike a P/B of 4.1 Westcorp, a financial services holding Like Nike, a footwear manufacturer, Rocky
and a P/E of 21 in 2005, both high company, reported earnings for 1998 of Shoes reported an ROCE of 1.8% for 1998
relative to normal ratios. Current 0.65 per share and an ROCE of 5.4%. with earnings of 0.21 per share. Analysts
residual earnings were $642 million Analysts in 1999 forecasted earnings of forecast an ROCE of 6.2% for 1999 and
and analysts were forecasting $1.72 for 1999 and $2.00 for 2000, 7.8% for 2000, on earnings of 0.72 and 0.95
earnings that indicated higher residual which translate into an ROCE of 13.6% respectively. The market gave the firm a
earnings in the future. and 14.1% respectively. With a P/B of 0.6 and a P/E of 33, appropriate for a
forecasted ROCE at about the firm with forecasted ROCE less than the
(presumed) cost of capital but increasing (presumed) cost of capital but with
from the current level this is a cell B increasing ROCE.
firm. The market gave the firm a P/B of
1.10 and a P/E of 24.
D High P/B; Normal P/E E Normal P/B, Normal P/E F Low P/B; Normal P/E
Whirlpool, with a positive but Horizon Financial Corp., a bank holding In 1999, analysts covering Rainforest Cafe,
constant RE was a cell D firm in company, reported an ROCE of 10.3% the theme restaurant (“a wild place to eat”),
1994. Whirlpool was priced at 11 for fiscal 1999. Analysts forecasted that forecasted earnings of $0.62 per share for
times earnings (cum-dividend), as we ROCE would be 10.6% for 2000 and 1999 and $0.71 for 2000, or an ROCE of
saw, and at 1.8 times book value. after, roughly at the same level. If the 6.8% and 7.2%. The stock traded at a P/B
equity cost of capital is 10%, this firm of 0.6, reflecting the low anticipated ROCE.
should have a normal P/B and a normal The ROCE for 1998 was 6.5%. With 1998
P/E. The stock traded at 11 times profitability similar to forecasted
earnings and 1.0 times book value. profitability, the stock should sell at a
normal P/E ratio. And indeed it did: the
P/E at the time of the forecasts was 11.
G High P/B; Low P/E H Normal P/B; Low P/E I Low P/B; Low P/E
US Airways reported an ROCE of America West Holdings, the holding United Airlines’ holding company traded at
81% in 1998. Analysts deemed 1998 company for America West Airlines had a P/B of 0.7 in mid-1999 and a P/E of 6. It
to be a particularly good year and an ROCE of 15.0% in 1998. Analysts reported an ROCE of 29.2% for 1998, but
forecast ROCE for 1999 and 2000 forecasted in 1999 that the ROCE would its ROCE was expected by analysts to drop
down to 29% and 33%. The stock decline to 11.7% by 2000. The market to 10.6% (before a special gain) in 1999 and
traded at 12.6 times book value, gave the stock a P/B of 1.0 in 1999, in to 9.1% in 2000.
consistent with high ROCE in the line with the forecasted ROCE equaling
future, but at a P/E of only 4. the cost of capital. But the P/E was 7,
consistent with the expected drop in the
ROCE.
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What is a Growth Stock?
13-54
P/B is not Growth
13-55
Accounting Quality Watch
• Deferred revenue Firms can defer too much earnings to the future and thus create too
much earnings growth. Conversely, firms can defer too little earnings
and so report unsustainable earnings currently.
• Restructuring charges Firms can make excessive restructuring charges in one year and bleed
them back to earnings in future years, giving the appearance of
growth. FASB Statement 146 now limits the practice.
• Selling, general and SG&A is a large, aggregated number that covers a multiple of sins.
administrate expense Penetrate its composition.
• Gains and losses on These are often hidden in SG&A expense, but are not a part of the
asset sales core business.
• R&D and advertising Firms can increase earnings by temporarily reducing R&D and
advertising expenditures. This not only inflates current earnings but
damages future earnings that the expenditures would otherwise
produce.
(continued)
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Accounting Quality Watch (cont.)
• Pension accounting Pension accounting brings prices into the income statement with
the danger that earnings can reflect price bubbles. Returns on
pension plan assets are commingled with core operating income
from the business, contaminating profit margins. Expected
returns on plan assets can be overestimated.
• Cherry picking Firms can cherry pick realized gains on investments into the
income statement and report unrealized losses in the equity
statement. Restate the income statement of a comprehensive
income basis.
• Changes in estimates Firms can affect earnings by changes in estimates (of bad debts,
warranty liabilities, and accrued expenses, (for example).
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