THE
ESSENTIAL
TRENDS
BRIEFING
SMART IDEAS FROM:
BILL GATES, KWAME KWEI-ARMAH,
SCOTT BELSKY, BILL GROSS,
KERSTI KALJULAID, KAI-FU LEE,
FANNY MOIZANT, ANIL SETH,
MARIANA MAZZUCATO + MORE
128 PAGES OF EXPERT INSIGHTS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
ANNUAL
2022
WHAT’S COMING NEXT IN:
TECHNOLOGY / POLITICS
HEALTH / BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT / CULTURE
GEAR / SECURITY
TRANSPORT / SCIENCE
TIME, A HERMÈS OBJECT.

H ER M È S H 08
TH E TE X TU R E O F TI M E
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 CONTENTS 0 06

E S SE N T I A L T R E ND S

THE WIRED
WORLD
IN 2022
013 TECHNOLOGY 027 SCIENCE 041 HEALTH

Safer social networks, Diverse universities, brain Stem-cell ethics, custom

new tech’s global outlook, organoids, green batteries, antibodies, embryologist
privacy meets security, dark matter, modelling robots, getting ahead of
worker-led automation molecules, proprioception disease, personal health

049 ENVIRONMENT 067 TRANSPORT 075 POLITICS 087 GEAR

CEOs get serious about EV charging gets heavy, Digital allies unite, rising EVs power up for a big
carbon-removal, liveable hydrogen in high gear, extremist cults, digital year, from scooters and
cities, climate justice for edge nodes everywhere, states, autism and human e-bikes to green machines
Africa, plastic pollution new batteries from old rights, Britcoin in peril in the air and on the road

SPOT ILLUSTR ATIONS

Andrea Bojkovska

PORTR AITS

Matthew Green

095 BUSINESS 109 CULTURE 119 SECURITY

Bank-free finance, regtech NFTs, philanthropists fund Ransomware ramps up,

automated, fashion resale change, art for mental Food supplies at risk, AI
stays on-trend, luxury’s health, patronage goes top guns, digital defence,
new narrative, digital HQs mainstream, AI discovery simulating new threats
 MASTHE AD
Deputy global editorial director
Greg Williams
WIRED World in 2022 editor David Baker
Group creative director Andrew Diprose
Managing editor Mike Dent
WIRED World in 2022 designer
Chrissy Mouncey
Additional reporting for
WIRED World in 2022
Sanjana Varghese
Director of photography Dalia Nassimi
Art director Mary Lees
Acting art director Harry Winfield
Executive editor Jeremy White
Features editor Victoria Turk
Digital editor James Temperton
Deputy digital editor Matt Burgess
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administration and rights
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entertainment Silvia Weindling
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CONTRI BUTO RS
DAVID BAKER
“Science benefits from a diversity
of voices, but the contributions of
women and non-white people
have often been downplayed,”
says Baker, who edits The WIRED
World. “So it’s great to see that
being rectified, with projects
next year acknowledging the work
of Rosalind Franklin and Vera
Rubin. As Jessica Wade says in
her Science prediction, greater
diversity will only strengthen
the pursuit of knowledge.”
DAMBISA MOYO
“Economic recovery will not be
sustainable without emerging
economies recovering too,”
explains global economist
Dambisa Moyo. “Developed
countries cannot maintain their
economic standing if they can’t
sell goods and services abroad.”
TOM COPINGER-SYMES
“Like all large organisations, UK
Defence is working to maximise
the opportunities and manage
the risks of the digital age,” says
the UK Strategic Command’s
director of military digitisation.
“Defence must do all this while
facing a wide range of threats.”
YO HOSOYAMADA
“I wanted to highlight the ways
technology can influence our
personal lives,” says Hosoyamada
of her Transport illustrations.
“I took everyday spaces – your
neighbourhood, a park, street
corners – and visualised the new
ways that we might live in them.”
T HE B R A IN S T R U S T
MEET OUR EXPERTS
Here are a few of the globally renowned thinkers, scientists,
innovators, leaders and illustrators who made predictions,
propositions and prognoses for The WIRED World in 2022
UCHE ADEGBITE
“The next billion people that come online will
be from emerging markets,” says Twitter’s
Adegbite. “In 2022, there will be increased
geographic distribution of the leaders behind
global technological innovation, leading
to services and brands that serve everyone.”
ANIL SETH
“By 2022, brain organoids – artificially grown
masses of cells that resemble an organ – will be
displaying dynamics that bear comparison to
activity indicative of consciousness,” says Seth,
a professor of computational neuroscience.
“The ethical implications of this are obvious.”
LUIS MENDO
“All the problems facing the environment seem
so huge, so I decided to try to bring them down
to a human scale,” says Mendo of his illustra-
tions. “I tried to translate big gestures into small,
relatable ones. That said, the Bill Gates all-
hands-on-deck approach is the way forward.”
NAOMI MORIS
“Stem cells can be pushed towards making
cell types, including bone and muscle, but
researchers have found ways to join them
together to make embryo-like structures,”
says Moris. “Such models might mitigate the
need to use ‘real’ human embryos in research.”
01 0 F RO M THE EDITO R
P L A NNING P R IOR I T IE S
MAKE CHANGE
FOR GOOD
After a year of upheaval, the future
focus is on positive outcomes for all
By Greg Williams
Every year, we ask a group of thoughtful
people within the WIRED network to look
12 months ahead and make a specific
prediction. It’s never an easy task and the
testing nature of the challenge has been
thrown into relief over the nearly two years
since Covid-19 first emerged in Wuhan.
The weight of opinion appears to be that
while we don’t know the exact form of the
next global emergency, there are strong
indicators that it will originate in four ways:
the climate crisis, antibiotic resistance,
another disease jumping species, or a devas-
tating cyber attack on critical infrastructure.
But it’s also worth stepping back and
celebrating the success of some of the
innovators and disciplines that WIRED
covers: in July, neurosurgeon Dr Edward
Chang developed a “speech neuropros-
thesis” – a brain-computer interface that
enabled a man with severe paralysis to
communicate using only his thoughts.
Later that month, DeepMind released
over 350,000 protein structures predicted
by its machine learning algorithm AlphaFold
– a dataset which could lead to major break-
throughs in the fight against diseases such
as cancer and Alzheimer’s. In Germany
the same month, BioNTech – the pharma
Greg Williams
is deputy
global editorial
director
of WIRED
company behind the first mRNA Covid-19
vaccine – announced that it would begin
clinical trials for a malaria vaccine by
the end of the year and Form Energy,
a Boston-based startup, announced
that its iron-air batteries could solve the
challenge of grid-scale storage. In early
August, NVIDIA and King’s College London
used Cambridge-1, the UK’s fastest super-
computer, to build AI models capable
of creating synthetic brain images.
I’m writing this letter ahead of COP26,
at which we’ll get a sense of the appetite
political leaders have for tackling the climate
crisis. This is a crucial moment, not just for
the planet, but also for leadership. Demon-
strating a willingness to act will restore faith
in governance and in democratic models.
The pivotal nature of this is clear, because
there will be further disruptions to our norms
and economic systems. We must anticipate
these by putting in place robust protections
that address stagnating wages, the growth
in inequality and low-quality work through
life-long learning and welfare systems that
benefit both sides of the labour market: the
private sector benefits from a robust income
safety net, such as the Danish “flexicurity”
model, which works for both employers
and employees. Ownership models must
be extended and citizens must have the
right to transparency for algorithmic
decision-making that impacts their lives.
Technologists often talk about “moonshot
thinking” – the belief that pursuing a distant,
seemingly impossible goal is superior to
incremental progress. Government is
good at this – putting patient capital into
high-risk research and investments. As
the economist Mariana Mazzucato (who
contributes to The WIRED World) writes in
her book The Entrepreneurial State, the
iPhone was not the product of a lone genius
– it was built upon technologies such as GPS,
the internet and the touchscreen display
that were developed by the state.
Amazon’s research and development
spend for 2020 was $38bn, a sum that
exceeds many sovereign nations – the
UK’s annual R&D budget is £36bn ($47bn);
in 2018, the US government spent $134bn.
Amazon believes that the only way for it to
succeed is to develop the technologies
that will shape the lives of consumers ten
years from now. Government must develop
a similar view, despite the disruption of
election cycles. Having a clear sense of
national priorities – collective missions,
defined, ambitious goals – would alleviate
the calcifying nature of ministerial churn.
And not only well-resourced countries
benefit – global commons, open-source
software and declining prices in energy
and computation mean that countries in
the developing world can use the same
tools as developers in Helsinki or Austin.
The pandemic has demonstrated the
extraordinary capacity of human beings to
develop and deploy a vaccine at unprece-
dented speed. It’s a powerful partnership
of the public and private sectors – and one
we’ll apply to the challenges we face in 2022.
Below: The Orbit, a new, green smart city
in Canada that will break ground in 2022
 Power your world. IONIQ 5.
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 SECTIO N 1 TECHN OLOGY 013

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Michelle Kennedy
Uche Adegbite
Daniel Dines
Kai-fu Lee
Matt Brittin
Pete Shadbolt
Ian Levy

TECHNOLOGY

ILLUSTR ATION

Haley Tippman
GUE S T F ON T S

Bermondsey Sans & Danmark

by A2-TYPE

In the 15 years of its existence, social
media has devolved from a place to
keep in touch with friends and family
to a breeding ground for toxicity. The
majority of social networks are built on the
principles of a masculine and privileged
economy where likes, comments, shares
and followers drive social currency. When
platforms exist under this malignant cache
of status, they create and promote unsafe
spaces for marginalised groups. Next year,
the tech industry will take concrete steps
to address and correct that imbalance.
For people who are marginalised, social
media can feel like being in an abusive
relationship. Research conducted by the
Economist Intelligence Unit has found
that 85 per cent of women globally have
witnessed online violence against other
women (including from outside their
networks). For BIPOC people, those
in the LGBTQ+ community and other
disadvantaged groups, the abuse is
often far worse, leading to the silencing
of voices and a danger to overall mental
wellbeing, which will only continue to
increase due to a lack of regulation.
In 2022, we will see the emergence of
more safe spaces online for disenfran-
chised groups. Traditional social networks
will finally provide improved reporting and
moderation, giving people more control of
their experiences online. They will also be
C UR AT E D C OMMUNI T Y
WE’LL BUILD
SAFE SOCIAL
NETWORKS
The currency of likes, shares and follows will be set aside as platforms seek
to detoxify their spaces and make them welcoming to marginalised groups
By Michelle Kennedy
joined by curated communities that foster
more intimacy, while simultaneously acting
as support systems where members feel
safe to share personal stories, uplift and
help each other feel seen and included.
When we were building Peanut, a social
network dedicated to providing a safe
space for women online, we reimagined
social through the lens of a feminine
economy and created a value system
based around care, community and
safety. By baking these values into the
core of our product, we have found that
we are able to provide a safe space online
which facilitates authentic and meaningful
connections across the real-life experi-
ences that unite women. Our ultimate goal
has always been motivated by our users.
Their desire to be vulnerable, raw and
honest has driven us to build something
to protect this – free from hate, trolling
and doomscrolling. Next year, my hope is
that other social networks will follow suit.
To achieve this, the tech community’s
journey into more equitable platforms
has to begin with redefining social capital,
so that empathy and collectivism are
valued over individual power and status.
As our understanding of the need for
safer online spaces increases, social
currency will be earned through acts of
kindness, adding value to conversations
and showing others support in their most
TECHN OLOGY 015
vulnerable moments, rather than driven
by ad monetisation or data collection.
Tin d e r has al rea d y b een d oi ng
important work in this area. Rather than
insisting that users verify their account
by sending in a selfie, for example, it
has recognised that some users do not
display images of themselves for safety
reasons – par ticularly women and
LGTBQ+ people outside of the United
States. Its solution has been to allow them
to use another form of verification, such
as a driving license. In doing this Tinder is
creating a network where people can feel
safer forming new connections online.
Many vulnerable populations know
what it’s like to feel unsafe online. In 2022,
we will at last realise the importance of
reconfiguring online social capital and
involving teams with diverse viewpoints,
backgrounds and cultural contexts in the
construction of new social networks. That
way, by approaching products and tools
from the viewpoints of others, tech will
be able to build better solutions for all.
Michelle
Kennedy
is founder
and CEO
of Peanut
 DI S T R IB U T E D BY DE SIGN

TECH WILL GET A

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Silicon Valley has always been one of the Decentralisation in innovation will mean more
primary destinations for technological inclusion, less bias and better products for all
product development, leadership and the
funding needed to power it, but if Covid-19 By Uche Adegbite
has taught us one thing, it’s that the centre
of gravity for the tech sector is shifting.
The next billion people that come online
will be from emerging markets, and the
success of the platforms they engage with
will rest on how they empower, inspire and
create personal and professional value at
pace with that online access. In 2022, there
will be increased geographic distribution
of the leaders behind global technological
innovation, leading to global services, brands
and products that better serve everyone.
The pandemic was a forcing function in
this arena. Everyone had to contend with
an unprecedented disruption to health,
supply chains, business and general mobility.
It became increasingly clear as it unfolded
that there would be no one-size-fits-all
solution to the challenges that surfaced.
The needs by market have varied, based and even connect people to food supplies. money is being invested is evidence of its
on resources, timing, infrastructure and For the future of product development, staying power in 2022 and beyond. Global
the social and political trends found there. it means we will see the feature sets and venture capital is trending toward record
In India, a desperate shortage of oxygen, offerings of global products and services levels, up 157 per cent over the same period
medical supplies and access to health infra- become more tailored to fit the needs of last year, with $156.2 billion (£116bn) invested
structure earlier this year forced people people from across the world. Product in the second quarter of 2021, according
to find creative solutions to a life-threat- leaders working, testing and building in to a report by CB Insights, an analytics
ening problem. Through platforms such as their own communities means there firm. More recently, we saw Dailyhunt and
Twitter, people mobilised, connecting those will be more opportunity to incorporate short-form video app Josh, all based in
seeking help with those who could provide the needs, perspectives and experiences Bangalore, raise $450 million from some top
it. Developers jumped in, building innovative of the places in which they live. global investors. The examples are plentiful.
apps in a matter of days leveraging the open An algorithm with language dependencies Decentralisation in tech innovation
Twitter API to make it easier for people to built in an emerging market where there is promises more inclusion, less bias and
seek oxygen, locate volunteers to verify diversity in languages, culture, access and better product fit for everyone. In 2022,
whether hospitals had beds available infrastructure requires a more diverse set we will see an inflection point. There will be
of data at the outset. This means that the those who rush to return to the rigid and
underlying systems are more adaptable, barrier-presenting models that centred
less prone to bias and more relevant power and decision making in space-
Uche Adegbite globally. The lived experiences of teams based headquarters, and those who seize
is director of building a product has an impact on the the opportunity unlocked by distributed
product management, development process and final outcome. work, learning and leadership from across
global markets While the pandemic swiftly ushered us the globe. My personal bet is on those who
at Twitter in this direction, the shift in how and where put their investment in the latter.
 NON- C ODING C ODE R S TECH NOLOGY 017

AUTOMATION
WILL BE LED
BY WORKERS
Citizen developers will create AI
assistants to make their jobs easier

By Daniel Dines

“Citizen developer” has been a popular phrase in tech circles for almost a Daniel Dines first-hand insight into day-to-day processes.
decade, but 2022 will be the year that this role takes on a new importance is CEO and It’s important for organisations to
as non-technical developers come to the fore of digital transformation. co-founder remember that even the very best IT teams
Due to operational changes with the onset of the pandemic, the speed and scale of UiPath and CoEs have neither the means nor the
of technological development has reached heights unseen since the beginning capacity to deliver digital transformation
of the digital revolution. A McKinsey & Company study published at the end of on their own. Around 40 per cent of tasks
2020 found that Covid-19 – and the requirement for employees to work remotely can only be automated when you allow
– had accelerated digital transformation projects by as much as seven years. employee-driven demand. To reach the full
Automation is in the driver’s seat for much of this change. In fact, a survey done potential of automation, citizen developers
by my company UiPath this year found that 40 per cent of employers increased will amplify and evangelise automation. In
investment in automation in 2021. Up to this point, IT teams or automation many cases, automations created by citizen
Centres of Excellence (CoE) have led much of this initial development. In 2022, developers for a particular team are found
however, citizen developers will be at the forefront of this acceleration. to have greater use across the organisation.
These non-technical employees use no-code and low-code platforms to In order to achieve this, organisations will
create simple automations for themselves, their teams and their departments. need to invest in education and training in
They may have roles in HR, finance, sales and marketing, legal, procurement and 2022. This is already happening: 44 per cent
other business functions. Of course, they are not a substitute for the company’s of respondents to our survey said they had
IT team or CoE, but they play a critical role in creating smaller automations that received automation training within the past
require a deeper understanding of individual tasks and departmental processes. year, and of those, 91 per cent believed it
These employees will be an organisation’s secret weapon for unlocking the had improved their job performance. In
power of robot assistants at scale. Successful delivery of digital transformation addition, 73 per cent of office workers said
hinges upon automation touching every layer of an organisation, and this requires they’d be more willing to continue working
at a company that offers them opportunities
to learn new skills or enhance current ones.
Some companies run “Bot-a-Thons” to
encourage employees to create their own
robots. Others are offering self-selected
upskilling courses, or their employees are
taking advantage of free robotic process
automation training found online. As
automation becomes ubiquitous in the
workplace, workers with skills in creating
and using software robots will be in demand.
The financial benefits of fostering a citizen
developer community shouldn’t be under-
estimated. If used effectively and developed
in conjunction with a culture of learning and
collaboration, citizen developers will lead
the charge for automation at scale in 2022.
01 8 TECHNOLOGY
“Wu Dao” translates from the Chinese as
“enlightenment”. It is a fitting name for the
very latest in natural language processing
(NLP) – the ability for machines to process
and understand human language.
The Beijing Academy of Artificial Intel-
ligence unveiled Wu Dao 2.0 in June 2021
and this model holds the current title of
the largest neural network in the world
– an accolade that not that long ago
belonged to GPT-3, released in 2020 by
OpenAI, a research laboratory founded
by Elon Musk and others in California.
Wu Dao 2.0 has 1.75 trillion parameters,
ten times that of GPT-3 and can perform
a variety of tasks such as image recog-
nition, and text and image generation.
The model pens poems in the traditional
Chinese style, writes essays and answers
all manner of questions. GPT-3, a gigantic
sequence-transduction engine, was hailed
on its launch as analysing language from
a model so enormous that it included
almost every concept imaginable. And
now it has been left far behind.
Perhaps the most notable thing about
Wu Dao 2.0 is that it was a significant
update on the first version, which was only
launched three months previously. In other
words, the pace at which advances in NLP
are being made is accelerating rapidly.
Speech and language are central to
human intelligence, communication and
Kai-Fu Lee is a
computer scientist,
author and
chairman and CEO of
Sinovation Ventures
SIL IC ON SM A R T S
COMPUTERS WILL FIND
NEW WAYS TO MATCH
HUMAN INTELLIGENCE
From neuromorphic computing to deep learning,
machines will get closer to thinking like us in 2022
By Kai-Fu Lee
cognitive processes, so understanding
natural language is viewed as the greatest AI
challenge that, if solved, could take machines
much closer to human intelligence.
The big question is whether or not Wu
Dao 2.0, GPT-3 and other NLP advances
from the likes of Google have what it
takes for machines to pass the Turing Test
of being indistinguishable from humans.
Sceptics say that the machines are
merely memorising examples in a clever
way, but have no understanding and are
not truly intelligent. Central to human
intelligence are the abilities to reason,
plan and be creative. One critique of
deep learning–based systems like these
suggests that: “They will never have a sense
of humour. They will never be able to appre-
ciate art, or beauty, or love. They will never
feel lonely. They will never have empathy
for other people, for animals, or the
environment. They will never enjoy music
or fall in love, or cry at the drop of a hat.”
It’s certainly a convincing argument. But
the quotation above was in fact written
by GPT-3 after being prompted by writer
and researcher Gwern Branwen to offer
a critical take on itself. Does the technol-
ogy’s own ability to make such an accurate
critique contradict the critique itself?
Many think true intelligence will require a
greater understanding of human cognitive
processes. Others believe today’s comput-
er-hardware architecture cannot mimic
the human brain, and instead advocate
neuromorphic computing – building
circuitry that matches the human brain,
along with a new way of programming. Still,
others call for elements of “classical” (that
is, rule-based expert systems) AI combined
with deep learning in hybrid systems.
I believe it’s indisputable that computers
simply “think” differently from our brains.
The best way to increase computer intelli-
gence is to develop general computational
methods (such as deep learning and Wu
Dao 2.0) that scale with more processing
power and more data. This is the way
that computers will rapidly get closer to
human intelligence in 2022.
Will deep learning eventually become
“artificial general intelligence” (AGI),
matching human intelligence in every way?
I don’t believe it will happen in the next 20
years. There are many challenges that we
have not made much progress on or even
understood, such as how to model creativity,
strategic thinking, reasoning, counterfactual
thinking, emotions and consciousness.
In fact, I would suggest that we stop using
AGI as the ultimate test of AI. Soon, deep
learning and its extensions will beat humans
on an ever-increasing number of tasks, but
there will still be many existing tasks that
humans can handle much better than deep
learning. I consider the obsession with AGI
to be a narcissistic human tendency to
view ourselves as the gold standard. Next
year we will see that these two ways of
being “intelligent” can exist side by side.
020 TECHN OLOGY C ONNE C T ION P O T E N T I A L

TECH WILL HEAL POST-

COVID INEQUALITIES
Digital tools will help those who were hardest hit by the
pandemic by closing gender, social and geographic divides

By Matt Brittin

As well as its more obvious effects, one

of the most noticeable aspects about the
global pandemic was that it further widened
existing divides. Women, low-income
workers, the youngest and the poorest
were hit extremely hard. In 2022, digital
technologies and tools will help to heal
those divides and accelerate a sustainable
recovery that works better for everyone.
For almost half the planet, this will
start with digital connectivity. Countries
around the world are putting digital tools
at the heart of their recovery strategies
– seeing the huge potential of open
access to accelerate economic growth,
innovation and jobs. Next year, govern-
ments and businesses will invest in the
infrastructure, such as subsea cables,
needed to get everyone online. Access
to more affordable, faster connectivity
will help close the rural-urban gap by
eliminating “not-spots” for the 600 million
people who currently live outside the range
of networks. Whole economies will also
start to feel the impact of connecting
the world. According to research by
the International Finance Corporation,
part of the World Bank, a ten per cent
increase in mobile-internet penetration
boosts GDP per capita by two per cent. business will become a digital business and every business will become
In 2021, even the smallest companies a global business. Mobile banking and payments will be a key part of this.
had to become multichannel as services Just how important this technology is to societies is clear in the
shifted online. Those that did are feeling the numbers. According to Reuters, concern about handling physical
benefits: small businesses that used digital money boosted basic mobile money transactions in sub-Saharan
tools in the pandemic saw 80 per cent Africa by almost a quarter to $490 billion (£355 billion) during the Matt Brittin
better sales and hired three times more pandemic – that’s more than the GDP of Nigeria. In India, people are is president,
people than those that didn’t, according making 3 billion digital transactions a month. Apps such as Kenya’s EMEA
to research done by the Connected M-Pesa or Google Pay, which enable mobile transactions, are helping Business and
Commerce Council and funded by Google. small businesses to go cashless, accept remote payments and reach Operations
In 2022, with half the planet online and more new and bigger markets. In 2022 these technologies will reach many at Google
people connecting for the first time, every of the 1.7 billion people around the world who have no conven- in London
tional bank account, and help to transform
access to wealth in developing countries.
Better tools for work will also help
close gender and geographical divides.
Businesses everywhere are already doing
some form of hybrid working. In 2022, we
will see more leaps in digital tools that not
only enhance productivity, collaboration
and wellbeing, but also make the future
workplace far more inclusive. This will need
leadership – we have seen in the pandemic
how women’s participation in work has been
disproportionately impacted. But, by making
it easier to be productive and collaborate
from anywhere, tech-enabled productivity
tools can be a leveller – pulling more people
into the workforce who struggle to be a
part of it today. And, with leaders looking
to improve diversity and representation,
teams can be more distributed too.
With accelerated connection and these
kinds of digital advances, every business
will have the opportunity to become a
micro-multinational and reach talent and
customers across borders.
Not everyone, however, can easily
adopt new technologies. If predictions
are accurate that many more people than
previously thought will need to transition to
new jobs due to the pandemic, equipping
people with the right digital skills will be key
to an inclusive recovery. In 2022, policy-
makers and businesses will invest in new
forms of learning for the most vulnerable
and at risk of job displacement.
Covid accelerated the use of technology
by years. In 2022, we will see the potential for
connection and digital tools to accelerate a
recovery that works for everyone. Govern-
ments, companies and communities will
need to work together to make this a reality.
P O W E R S T R U G GL E
QUANTUM
WILL LEAVE
NISQ BEHIND
Breakthroughs in computing will
come if researchers shift focus
By Pete Shadbolt
Quantum computers come in two types.
The first is Near-Term Intermediate-
Scale Quantum (NISQ). This represents
the idea – and the hope – that we might
deliver commercially valuable quantum
applications using a relatively small, error-
prone, prototype quantum computer. The
second type is an error-corrected quantum
computer, which is much larger, more
demanding and dramatically more capable.
In 2022, we will see the logic of setting aside
our hopes for NISQ and focus instead
on error-corrected quantum computers.
About five years ago, the majority of teams
working in quantum computing placed their
bets on NISQ, hoping that it would offer a
short-cut to useful applications. Despite
global efforts, that hasn’t yet materi-
alised, and the odds of ever seeing useful
NISQ applications that can outperform a
conventional computer now look quite
slim. It has turned out to be very difficult to
find algorithms that can work around the
errors that are intrinsic to NISQ machines.
Larger teams have now moved their
focus to the challenges of building error-
corrected quantum computers. These
actively suppress errors through error-cor-
recting code, similar to techniques currently
used to avoid errors in the hard drive in a
laptop, or the error-correcting code RAM
used in conventional supercomputers.
At PsiQuantum we have targeted an
error-corrected machine from day one. I
am also optimistic that we will see a number
of small-scale, proof-of-principle demon-
strations of quantum error correction from
some of the larger teams, such as those at
Google and IBM. While these demonstra-
tions should be evaluated carefully – there
are still huge challenges to scaling up – it
will be very exciting to see how those teams
tackle the very hard problem of correcting
errors using genuine quantum hardware.
This will also free up capital and personnel
as an increasing number of the world’s
brightest minds in quantum information
science devote more time and energy
to algorithmic research in fault-tolerant
quantum algorithms with commercial
applications. This is an extremely rich field
– similar to the heyday of deep-learning
research – where 10x breakthroughs come
thick and fast. I am positive that the field
will enjoy many more such results in 2022,
bringing the ultimate promise of useful
quantum computing more within reach.
Pete Shadbolt
is co-founder
and chief
strategy officer
of PsiQuantum
02 2 TECHNOLOGY
 B A L A NC ING R I SK S
WE’LL CHOOSE BOTH
PRIVACY & SECURITY
In 2022, platforms will discover sacrificing
transparency for public safety is the wrong tactic
By Ian Levy
The pandemic has shown how central global social
media, messaging and collaboration platforms have
become in people’s everyday lives. However, we don’t
yet understand the trade-off between the security
and privacy afforded by those platforms and the real
costs of using them. We’re used to being told that
privacy is a commodity, for example, but no one is
really sure what is being sold, or what the real price is.
In 2022, that will change. We will finally see the
“privacy versus security” argument exposed as
a false dichotomy and the reality of the privacy
intrusion generated by most “free” services made
clear. Next year, consumers will be able to make
increasingly informed decisions about the wider
societal impacts of the services they use.
Technology connects our world in ways which
were unthinkable even a decade ago. It magnifies our
ability to create many positive outcomes, but it also
holds a mirror up to societies and it can – and does –
enable and exacerbate real harm, where real crimes
have real victims. Criminality used to be local – local
perpetrators, local harm and local law enforcement.
Many global platforms now enable globalised crimi-
nality, from investment scams through transnational
organised crime to child sexual exploitation.
This isn’t by design and many of the platforms work
with law enforcement to discover and prosecute
criminality hosted or enabled by their platforms
or channels. But we are now seeing a worrying
trend of companies designing out public safety on
the premise of designing in some form of privacy.
One argument against designing systems to allow
for proper public safety is that it would create a
catastrophic vulnerability – risking global cyber-
security and allowing oppressive regimes to conduct
mass surveillance. I don’t believe this. Encryption
isn’t a fragile snowflake, it’s maths with well-defined
properties. It can be designed to prevent bad things
from happening, while providing transparency and
audit when needed. To use a real-world example, we
do not build schools without fire doors, even though
they are a potential vulnerability because they
contain locks that could be picked, and walls don’t.
Instead, we understand that they are something to
be monitored with cameras and alarms; something Apple of your eye
to be managed properly. The alternative – people at Tim Cook will unveil
risk of burning to death – is unconscionable. In the Apple’s long-rumoured
online world too, safe design is as important as user virtual-reality headset
privacy. Next year, companies and consumers will see in 2022, entering a
that they are both core requirements of technology. market dominated by
Some people believe that artificial intelligence will Facebook’s Oculus
fix everything, but that’s unlikely. For many types of Quest, PlayStation VR,
harm or abuse, metadata alone isn’t enough to train Valve Index and HTC
an AI model reliably. As offenders find new ways of Vive. Analysts believe
abusing services, it is very hard to evolve AI models its exterior will blend
without some access to content, which is where you fabric and lightweight
find human intent. Using AI in this way would also lead materials, while inside,
to a dystopian Minority Report-style future, where a custom chip more
a “magic box” decides that someone has probably powerful than the M1
committed a crime, but we have no evidence either processor will drive
to exonerate or to convict them, because no one the hardware and will
can see the content that decision was based on. wirelessly connect to
In 2022, we will see the global tech platforms a user’s MacBook or
make a choice. Some will choose to tackle the iPhone. The headset will
apparent dichotomy of ensuring individual privacy, also provide augmented
while protecting public safety, both online and in reality experiences
the real world – and some, inevitably, will choose – and, no doubt, a
not to. And people will be able to make a choice, whole new way to shop
too – weighing up the relative risks and benefits in Apple’s App Store.
of each platform and voting with their eyeballs. Sanjana Varghese
Ian Levy is
the technical
director of the UK
National Cyber
Security Centre
 DI V E R SE F IN A NC E S OL U T ION S

INNOVATING TO
MAKE MONEY
MORE INCLUSIVE
From budgeting to mortgages and transfers, open data and ‘invisible’
banking can help people level up their access to financial services

By Sophia Epstein
Illustration By R. Fresson

Recent years have brought significant
innovation in financial services, with
traditional banks rising to the challenge
set by fintech and Big Tech players who
transformed and enhanced the customer
experience – often at better value.
The global pandemic has only accelerated
the proliferation of solutions available and
driven their adoption. In theory, this is
fantastic news. With a card for this and
an app for that, you can pay anyone,
anywhere, at pretty much anytime.
But there is such a thing as too much
choice – it can be overwhelming. “When
people have no choice, life is almost
unbearable,” psychologist Barry Schwartz
wrote in his book The Paradox of Choice.
As the number of choices increases,
initially we get autonomy and liberation.
But, as that number keeps rising, we
get overloaded and stressed. “Choice is
great,” says Paul Stoddart, president of
new payment platforms at Mastercard.
“But creating an environment where you’re
bombarded with different providers of the
same thing makes it very difficult to know
which is the best one for you.”
But help is on its way. Open banking
and the more applied use of data could
soon revolutionise choice – by bypassing
it altogether. Taking this path gives
consumers and businesses the ability to
securely share their bank account data
with trusted financial service providers,
including their neighbourhood bank to
retailers, utility providers and fintechs,
in exchange for more bespoke financial
services that make intelligent decisions
on your behalf. “It really changes the rules
of the game,” says Stoddart.
Imagine being able to view all your
accounts in one place, with the ability
to move money between them with a
simple swipe or tap. Better than that, an
AI assistant manages your money for you,
helping you to avoid overdraft fees and “and then give control of it over to you.”
maximise your savings and rewards. It frees That “you” is everyone, not just fintech-
up more of your time, does away with the savvy twenty-somethings or wealthy
headaches of manual tasks, and ultimately businesspeople. In fact, Mastercard is
leaves you financially better off. working hard to widen access to these
This type of “invisible” banking requires kinds of services for those currently
a lot of data, which in turn requires a excluded from the system. That includes
trusted go-between – and that is exactly providing access to affordable credit for
what Mastercard provides within this people who otherwise wouldn’t qualify,
ecosystem. “We facilitate secure access such as immigrants, students or anyone
to that information,” explains Stoddart, else without a long credit history.
For example, through open banking
platform Finicity, which is now a Mastercard
subsidiary, Rocket Mortgage is using data
Technology can help everyone supplied from users about their spending,
access financial services via income and employment to help them get
a diverse banking ecosystem a loan to buy a home. “By aggregating that

information together, we can help financial
services companies make a decision around
lending you money, or get you a better rate,”
says Stoddart. “With this new data, we can
present a more accurate view that demon-
strates that you are a lower credit risk than
if they didn’t know anything about you.”
Digital banking has the potential to have
an everlasting and truly profound impact
on anyone and everyone’s lives, no matter
their starting point. But in order to do that,
it needs to be accessible. According to
Mastercard research, 85 per cent of people
have tried at least one new payment type
in the past year, while 63 per cent said
they had tried one that they wouldn’t
have otherwise made use of. But while
the pandemic was a catalyst for all kinds
of technological adoption, it also revealed
the existence of a digital banking divide.
Mastercard has already brought 500
million financially excluded people into
its digital economy and has committed to
doubling that number by 2025 to include
50 million small and micro merchants
with a direct focus on providing 25 million
women entrepreneurs through multiple
programmes around the world. One example
Digital banking has the potential to have
an everlasting impact on everyone’s lives
WIRED PARTNERS HIP 025
is its Nobody in the Dark programme in
the UK, which helps people build up their
digital confidence so they can properly use
the online tools at their disposal. Becky, a
mother who couldn’t figure out how to turn
on her children’s tablet to start with, ended
up swapping out her weekly food parcels for
digital vouchers so she could buy in bulk
online and save on travel costs. Becky’s story
doesn’t boast the same type of innovation as
open banking or AI-initiated payments, but
the impact on her life is astounding. Another
example is Strive UK, an initiative that will
empower 650,000 British micro and small
enterprises to thrive in the digital economy
through tools and personalised support
over the next three years and beyond.
Broadly, Mastercard is evolving its
multi-rail capabilities to put conven-
ience, flexibility and control in the palm
of anyone’s hand. One solution, Mastercard
Send, makes it possible to send money near
instantly to more than one billion people
from a banking app, a gig platform or even
a WhatsApp chat; its platforms connect
90 per cent of the world’s population to
send and receive money at home and
abroad using a bank account, card, digital
wallet or cash. Mastercard has even begun
supporting select cryptocurrencies on its
network this year to enable customers,
merchants and businesses to pay and get
paid in the way that suits them best.
Mastercard and its par tners are
innovating for trust and inclusion across
the whole breadth of the banking system
and, as we move into 2022, that has never
been more important. As Stoddart says,
“However people want to pay, we’ve
got to ensure that our bank and fintech
partners can provide flexibility, security
and control to people and organisations,
whatever their level of financial literacy
and however they choose to interact.”
To learn more about Mastercard’s services,
visit mastercard.com/startwithpeople
CAN A
SEASHELL
SHAPE AN
ALTERNATIVE
TO PLASTIC?

Ingenuity demands a different perspective,

seeking inspiration in surprising places. At PA, we combine
innovative thinking with breakthrough technology to create
a positive human future in a technology-driven world.
 SECTIO N 2 SCIEN CE 027

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Jessica Wade
Lucie Green
Peter Chapman
Amrit Chandan
Anil Seth
Natalia Kucirkova

SCIENCE

ILLUSTR ATION

Billy Clark
02 8 SCI ENCE
In 2021, UK universities were forced to reflect.
Global uprisings, a shift to online learning and a
pandemic forced academics to change their behaviour.
In-person, international conferences – often out of
reach for people with caring responsibilities or limited
funding – were no more. Packing students into poorly
ventilated lecture theatres was out of the question.
Statues honouring white supremacists and former
slave owners were found to be incompatible with the
cultures of inclusivity universities strive to achieve. The
pandemic itself revealed the need for honest reflection
around the lack of public trust in “experts”. In 2022,
universities will be very different to the ones of today.
In 2021, the UK’s largest funding body, UK Research
and Innovation (UKRI), legislated that the outcomes of
UKRI-funded research must be available to all. Open
access will help improve public trust while creating
a culture of collaboration, allowing researchers to
identify opportunity, learn from negative results
and quickly rule out untenable research directions.
Teaching will become more engaging, ensuring
students from historically marginalised groups excel
in higher education. Learning will be multimodal,
allowing students to access content wherever they
are, whenever they want, to pause, rewind and use
precious face-to-face time for small group work.
The pursuit of knowledge will be strengthened
by more diverse students, group leaders and
L E A R NING T O C H A NGE
UNIVERSITIES
WILL BECOME
MORE DIVERSE
Higher education will act on the lessons of the last
12 months to ensure the coming 12 are fairer for all
By Jessica Wade
professors. In the global fight for social justice, students and early-career
researchers are demanding more from their institutions. In last year’s
WIRED World, DeepMind’s Obum Ekeke predicted that 2021 would see more
support for Black students to progress through education and, thanks to the
Cowrie Scholarship Foundation, Leading Routes, the Hamilton Commission and
global #BlackInX movements, we’re seeing those changes start to happen.
Change will be slow – in April 2021, the Royal Society revealed that only
65 of 10,560 science professors in the UK are Black – but it will happen. And
when it does, research itself will benefit. Diverse teams are more successful
in their endeavours, more innovative, have a greater international impact and
are more highly cited. Alongside their learning, students will be encouraged
to explore the history and impacts of their disciplines, to use their education
to address inequality and to investigate the current culture of research fields.
With public awareness on the importance of physical and mental health at
an all-time high, student and staff mental health will finally be taken seriously.
In 2021, Chinese universities made courses on mental health mandatory
for all undergraduate students. The online version of Yale’s most popular
course, Psychology and the Good Life, has had more than three million enrol-
ments since March 2020. We will see other universities following suit in 2022
with greater institutional investment in mental health and wellbeing.
Hybrid conferences and captioned online seminars will serve as platforms
for more meaningful discussion, spanning time zones and language barriers
while eliminating high-cost, environmentally damaging travel. This year showed
academia how moving online could be more inclusive, accessible and far-reaching.
In 2022 we will see higher-education institutions learning from the positive
aspects of the pandemic while rejecting the out-of-date practises of the past.
The universities of 2022 will better support the societies they serve: providing
equal access to opportunity as well as generating and disseminating knowledge for all.
Jessica Wade
is a research
fellow at Imperial
College’s Faculty
of Engineering
030 SCIENCE
Next year, we will begin creating our most
detailed map yet of the visible sky, as the
Vera C. Rubin observatory in Chile begins
operations. The information it collects
will far surpass previous datasets and will
enable a number of significant break-
throughs in the field of astrophysics.
The first star map can be traced back
to the Greek astronomer and mathema-
tician Hipparchus around 129 BCE. While
no record of his map exists today, the
work he did marked the start of a long and
important tradition. In 1989, the European
Space Agency launched the HIgh Precision
PARallax COllecting Satellite (Hipparcos),
punning on his name. In its three years
of operation, it was able to measure with
high precision the brightness, position
and motion of more than 110,000 stars
in our Milky Way galaxy. ESA’s follow-up
mission Gaia, launched 24 years later, has
increased that number to two billion, but
its limited size means it can only peer so
far into the Universe. Next year, the new
land-based observatory, named after Vera
Rubin – a pioneering astrophysicist of the
20th century – will begin operation, and it
will have the ability to see much further.
This is because the observatory will
be fitted with a large mirror – 8.4m in
diameter – that will help us detect not only
objects in our galaxy that are too faint to
be seen by Gaia, but also the dim light that
reaches us from galaxies as far as billions
of light years away. Its large field-of-view
means that it will be able to image the
L O OK ING F UR T HE R
DARK MATTER WILL
STEP INTO THE LIGHT
A powerful new observatory will enable greater study of
the Universe’s most mysterious and elusive substance
By Lucie Green
entire sky above it every few days, after
which it will start again. And it will keep
doing this for ten years, creating a series
of maps that demonstrate the movement
of these galaxies in space and time.
This data will help us understand more
about the dark energy that is causing the
universe to expand at an ever greater rate.
It will also be used to probe the nature of
dark matter. In the 1970s, it was Rubin who
provided the first observational evidence
that there is far more to the Universe
than the luminous objects we can see.
By mapping the position and motion of
stars at the outer edges of galaxies, she
showed that the speed at which they spin
around their galactic centres was too high
for there not to be some unseen extra
matter providing the additional gravita-
tional pull necessary to keep them in orbit.
In doing so, she proved the existence of
the mysterious substance dark matter.
Dark matter accounts for about 85 per
cent of all material in the Universe – in 2022,
the observatory named in Rubin’s honour
will help us see how this substance affects
the formation and evolution of galaxies,
and even the shape of the Universe itself.
Lucie Green is professor
of physics at the
Mullard Space Science
Laboratory, University
College London
 QU A N T UM ’ S B IG MOME N T numerous other molecules means it
is also considered a “universal solvent”
and it has a direct impact on the ability of
drugs to reach their targets in the body. To

MOLECULAR produce a qualitatively correct model of

water, scientists need to be able to simulate
at least four electrons, and this should be

SIMULATION WILL possible with quantum computers in 2022.

CO2 and ethylene also require at least
four electrons for molecular simulation

BE A REALITY and, like water, are key to several areas of

Quantum computing will trigger a revolution in materials science, chemicals,
medicine and more as it grows more powerful, versatile and accessible
By Peter Chapman
Understanding how molecules interact at
the atomic level is essential to generating
breakthroughs in areas such as drug
discovery, fighting climate change and
advancing materials science. To accelerate
these crucial developments, scientists need
the ability to accurately simulate molecules
in software in order to study their properties
and interactions. In 2022, improvements
in quantum hardware and software will
allow these simulations to happen in
important areas for the first time, paving
the way for a new era in molecular science.
Quantum computers can achieve
extremely high levels of computational
power by exploiting the unique properties
of “superposition” and “entanglement” that
occur at the atomic scale. Conventional
computers encode data as 1s and 0s;
quantum bits – or qubits – can exist as 1s, 0s
or both states simultaneously, allowing for
the exponentially greater computing power
essential for modelling complex molecules.
Today, quantum systems can simulate
molecules with two electrons, but improve-
ments in 2022 will allow for simulations of
up to eight electrons, opening the door to
scientifically interesting molecules such
as water and carbon dioxide. This is an
important step in helping scientists tackle
pressing challenges including extending the
life of batteries, making solar panels more
efficient and mitigating climate change.
Simulating chemical reactions in software
reduces the need for real-world testing,
which in turn massively accelerates scientific
progress. In drug development, for example,
scientists must first identify molecules with a
set of desired properties, such as the ability
to bind with proteins. Powerful quantum
computers could quickly screen billions of
molecules to identify suitable candidates
for clinical trials, speeding results and
increasing the chance of success.
Water may be the most familiar molecule
in the world and it is directly involved in
important chemical reactions such as
photosynthesis. Its ability to dissolve
scientific inquiry. A deeper understanding
of CO2 should provide critical insights that
will allow scientists to mitigate the problem
of global warming. Simulating ethylene,
meanwhile, will mark an important step
towards the accurate simulation of polymers,
which is crucial in materials development.
Systems with six or eight electrons are
also of interest to the molecular-science
communities. Simulating nitrogen gas,
for example, could help us understand
a process known as nitrogen fixation, in
which nitrogen is converted to ammonia.
This is extremely important for agriculture
and the development of safer, more
effective fertilisers. Nitrogen’s molecular
structure requires the simulation of at
least six electrons, which next year should
be possible using quantum computers.
A final example is silicon, which requires
the simulation of at least eight electrons.
Silicon is the foundation for semiconductor
chips, so better modelling here could help
to eke out further performance gains for
microprocessors. It is also the major material
for building solar cells, and simulation will be
key to making more efficient solar panels
for green energy use. This, too, should be
possible using quantum computers in 2022.
Conventional computers have allowed
for huge advances in scientific discovery,
but the slowing of Moore’s Law means
those traditional systems will be unable
to drive the complex programs needed for
big breakthroughs in the future. Quantum
computers promise vastly greater power,
and in 2022, they will support important
chemical breakthroughs for the first time.
Peter
Chapman
is president
and CEO
of IonQ Inc
 C L E A NE R E NE R G Y

BATTERIES WILL
GET GREENER
Battery technology will repair its reputation
by going reusable, traceable and cobalt-free

By Amrit Chandan

Production of lithium batteries will rise sharply Amrit Chandan

in 2022, with an estimated 400GWh-worth expected
to come online. But an increased awareness of the
circular economy and concerns about the mining
of cobalt – a key component of lithium batteries
Asteroid belted – will lead to a sizeable shift towards new types of
Nasa’s DART (Double battery that are reusable and cobalt-free.
Asteroid Redirection Cobalt helps make lithium batteries suitable for
Test) mission will use in the automotive sector. However, the majority
take place in 2022, of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic
more than 11 million Republic of Congo, where mining operations are
kilometres from Earth. linked to both environmental and human-rights
It will test whether abuses. Next year, battery manufacturers will be
an asteroid could be working to reduce the amount of cobalt in their
steered away from a lithium cells or turning towards cobalt-free chemis-
potential collision with tries, such as lithium iron phosphate, which is
the Earth, through the prevalent in stationary-power applications. We will
deliberate crashing also see them trialling alternative battery chemis-
of a spacecraft tries, such as sodium ion, which are attractive
weighing half a tonne options for large-scale applications due to their
at around 24,000kph. low cost and absence of controversial materials.
An onboard camera As part of a greater emphasis on the circular
will record the impact economy, we will also see the commercialisation of
with a moonlet orbiting battery-passporting technology, which will enable
the asteroid Didymos, better auditability and traceability of battery compo-
to see if its orbit can nents. This will allow manufacturers to guarantee
be altered. An ESA with confidence that their battery offerings are
mission, Hera, will either cobalt-free or that they contain cobalt
arrive at the site in that has been ethically sourced. This passporting
2026 to collect more technology will also enable manufacturers
data on the event. SV and consumers to track how much of a battery has
been repurposed, remanufactured or recycled by
the time it reaches the end of its useful life.
End-of-life of battery waste is fast becoming
one of the biggest issues the industry needs to
tackle when it comes to lithium batteries, second
only to thermal runaway events, where out-of-
control increases in battery temperature can lead
to fires. Next year, manufacturers will be exploring
is CEO and
co-founder
of Aceleron
Energy
alternatives to spot-welding technology and other
permanent-assembly techniques, which will enable
batteries to be recycled more easily.
2021 experienced a big growth in advocacy
for “right to repair” in technologies, and battery
manufacturers will have to respond accordingly.
Consumers are increasingly insisting on this right,
and governments around the world are introducing
legislation that requires e-waste (including batteries)
to be properly repurposed, remanufactured or
recycled. In 2022, more than 75 per cent of the
world’s population is likely to be affected by such
legislation, which will have a significant impact on
carbon equivalents released into the atmosphere.
In 2022, batteries will be different because
– for the first time – real consideration will be
given to alternative chemistries and end-of-life
reusability. This will be a turning point for the
industry, helping to make batteries greener overall.

T HO U GH T F UL R E SE A R C H
BRAIN ORGANOIDS WILL
DEVELOP ‘CONSCIOUSNESS’
Created for research, these clusters of neurons will reveal the hidden
secrets of our grey matter – but there may be ethical considerations
By Anil Seth
By 2022, brain organoids – artificially grown
masses of cells and tissue that resemble
an organ – will be displaying dynamics
that bear comparison with the complex
activity patterns indicative of consciousness
in humans. This will require us to rethink
what counts as a brain signature of
“consciousness” and raises ethical issues.
Brain organoids are lab-grown bundles
of neurons derived from human stem cells.
They display properties of the developing
human brain, enabling research into condi-
tions such as Zika-induced microcephaly.
Organoids can also help us discover
more about how the brain bootstraps
itself into existence from its underlying
genetic instructions and how its circuitry
supports the complex activity patterns
which cause brain functions. Organoids
provide a window onto these processes.
One question that looms large as this
research continues into 2022 is whether
or not brain organoids can be “conscious”.
There are already intriguing signs that
some building blocks of consciousness may
be in place. In 2019, Hideya Sakaguchi and
her colleagues at the University of Kyoto
showed distinctive “spiking” activity in neural
networks derived from organoids. Alysson
Muotri and his team at the University of
California, San Diego have found that brain
organoids show waves of co-ordinated
SCIEN CE 033
electrical activity, not unlike the patterns
seen in human infant brains before birth.
We are likely to see other examples in 2022,
but will we also see evidence of organoid
consciousness? The challenge here is that we
are still not sure how to define consciousness
in a fully formed human brain. However, there
are some promising avenues to explore.
One candidate for a neural signature of
consciousness is the brain’s response to a
perturbation. If you stimulate a conscious
brain with a pulse of energy, the electrical
echo will reverberate in complex patterns
over time and space. Do the same thing to
an unconscious brain and the echo will be
simple – like throwing a stone into still water.
The neuroscientist Marcello Massimini and
his team at the University of Milan have used
this discovery to detect residual or “covert”
consciousness in behaviourally unresponsive
patients with severe brain injury. What
happens to brain organoids when stimulated
this way remains unknown – and it is not yet
clear how the results might be interpreted.
As brain organoids develop increasingly
similar dynamics to those observed in
conscious human brains, we will have to
reconsider what we take to be reliable brain
signatures of consciousness in humans, and
what criteria we might adopt to ascribe
consciousness to something made, not born.
The ethical implications of this are
obvious. A conscious organoid might
consciously suffer – and we may never
recognise its suffering since it cannot
express anything. Discussions are already
underway to lay out ethical and regulatory
guidelines for organoid research. These
have parked the question of organoid
consciousness for now, but in 2022, we
may see evidence that it needs addressing.
Anil Seth is professor
of cognitive and
computational
neuroscience at the
University of Sussex
034 SCI ENCE

PROPRIOCEPTION WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG
EXPERIENTIAL TREND
This invisible sense will be combined with others
to create new sensations and new relationships
By Natalia Kucirkova
Proprioception is the imperceptible and invisible
sense, often referred to as the unconscious sixth
sense. It relies on mechanosensory neurons located
within muscles, tendons and joints and, as such,
it co-ordinates the body’s position in the brain,
facilitating spatial awareness to produce simple
movements, such as getting up from the chair or
opening a window. Unlike other senses, it runs in
the background of conscious awareness: unless you
have a proprioceptive deficit, you do not need to use
other senses to know where your body is in space.
During the pandemic, we have seen a global
awakening of the importance of bodily contacts for
social life. The limitations of screen-based interactions
and the selective loss of the sense of smell and taste in
Covid-19 patients has further underscored the need
to better understand the role of all six human senses.
In 2022, proprioception will be selectively stimulated
to enhance our sensory and physical experiences and
widen the multisensory repertoire at our disposal.
Training proprioception needs a careful balance
between under-stimulation and over-stimulation.
Studies show that some individuals, especially
vulnerable people, young children or individuals
diagnosed with autism or post-traumatic stress
disorder, can be overwhelmed by a simultaneous
engagement of all senses. Conversely, a judicial combi-
nation of selected senses – such as proprioception
with vision and hearing, for example – can have additive
beneficial effects for working memory. The benefits
can be unlocked by each individual with simple
exercises at home and, in 2022, we will see a surge of
apps and online resources targeting demographics
with bespoke training programmes and body rituals.
Commercial uses of proprioception oriented
towards the general public will be visible in the retail
BODY L ANGUAGE
industry. Our relationship with goods such as clothes, accessories, furniture
and cars will be determined by their spatially intelligent design and our bodily
experience with them. Service industries will also make use of proprioception.
Restaurants, for example, with revolving floors and real or stimulated views will
rise in popularity, as customers seek more direct connections between spatial
body stimulation and the food they eat. Affective proprioception, which stimu-
lates the intrinsic pleasure involved in movement activities such as dance or
yoga, will be combined with aquatherapy (which activates the sense of touch
through skin stimulation) or forest bathing (which provides a whole-body
sensory experience) for both domestic and international wellness tourists.
2022 will also represent a turning point for the ways in which some school
curricula incorporate proprioception for transformative learning experiences.
One trend in children’s publishing will be its use in storytelling. On the digital-
fiction front, virtual reality will enable readers to grasp story characters in their
own space and move, with their whole body, through the story universe. With
colleagues here at the University of Stavanger, we have also been piloting more
Natalia Kucirkova is professor of reading
and children’s development at The
Open University, UK and professor of
early childhood and development at the
University of Stavanger, Norway
analogue reading experiences that connect proprioception to children’s stories.
Young readers will be encouraged to use their whole bodies by treating books as
objects that they carry around or walk on as imaginary book bridges or story rivers.
There is a huge opportunity in integrating proprioception with existing activ-
ities, products and services, but the real potential lies in augmenting our bodies
with new sensory capabilities. Just as David Eagleman has pioneered the field of
atypical sensory stimulation that grants individuals new perceptions, proprio-
ception can be consciously deployed not in the background, but as the “Sense
of All Senses” which augments the unique dimensions of our human experience.
 S C IE NC E
By Sanjana Varghese Space relaunches
NASA, THE ESA AND OTHER SPACE AGENCIES
WERE FORCED TO RESCHEDULE MANY OF
THEIR MISSIONS WHILE COVID-19 CAUSED
TECHNICAL DELAYS. IN 2022, THE RUSH TO
GET SPACE RESEARCH BACK ON TRACK WILL
SEE A ROVER HEADING TO THE RED PLANET,
A SATELLITE SENT TO STUDY JUPITER AND
ITS MOONS, A TELESCOPE LAUNCHED INTO
SPACE TO LOOK FOR EVIDENCE OF DARK
MATTER AND DARK ENERGY – AND ON EARTH,
FOUR HUMAN VOLUNTEERS WILL SPEND 12
MONTHS LIVING IN A SIMULATION OF MARS…
1. MARS DUNE ALPHA
A 3D-printed habitat in which life on Mars will
be simulated will sprout from the Texan desert
in 2022. Developed by architects Bjarke Ingels
Group and advanced construction technology
specialists ICON in collaboration with Nasa,
it is intended as “preparation for humans to live
on Mars”. Four crew members will live and work
in the 158-square-metre station, facing a series
of challenges including equipment failure
and environmental issues, the data from which
will inform Nasa’s planning for the real thing.
 TA KIN G O FF IN 2022 037

2. EXOMARS MISSION
The 2022 mission of the ExoMars programme
(delayed from 2020) will send UK-assembled
rover Rosalind Franklin and the Kazachok Russian
surface platform to the red planet. The ESA will
use a Proton rocket to launch the lander and
rover in late September 2022, arriving at Mars
in June 2023, after a nine-month journey. The
ExoMars rover will probe the Martian surface in
search of evidence for past life, collecting sub-
surface samples with a drill and depositing them
into its Analytical Laboratory Drawer. Then, its
“Pasteur” suite of instruments will analyse the
soil for biosignatures. ExoMars will be the first
mission to combine the ability to move across the
surface with studies of deep subsurface Mars.

3. JUICE
Shown here is the JUpiter ICy moons Explorer
(JUICE), which will launch in 2022 as part of the
ESA’s Cosmic Vision programme. Its mission is
to study three of Jupiter’s moons – Ganymede,
Callisto and Europa – to better identify whether
they are potential habitats for life. These three
moons are thought to have liquid water on them
– but we won’t know until JUICE enters Jupiter’s
orbit in 2031. In 2032, it will become the first
spacecraft to orbit a moon other than the
Earth’s when it enters the orbit of Ganymede.
TA KI N G OF F IN 20 22 039
4. EUCLID
The Euclid infrared space telescope will help
scientists gain a deeper knowledge of dark
matter and dark energy by accurately measuring
the shapes of galaxies at various distances from
the Earth. In doing so, it will help us understand
why the expansion of the Universe appears
to be accelerating and what may be causing it.
Launching from the Guiana Space Centre in
a Soyuz ST-B rocket in the second half of 2022,
Euclid will settle into orbit at the L2 Lagrange
Point, 1.5 million kilometres from the Earth.
 SECTIO N 3 H E A LTH 041

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Naomi Moris
Matthew Taylor
Daniel M. Davis
J. Craig Venter
Mohamed Taha

HEALTH

ILLUSTR ATION

Fernando Cobelo
According to multiple studies, one in three pregnancies
results in miscarriage and one in 33 babies that are born
will have a birth defect, due to the embryo forming incor-
rectly in the womb. Studying how the embryo develops can
help us find ways to bring these numbers down. In 2022,
we will see advances in this research thanks to stem-cell-
based, embryo-like structures that can be grown in the lab.
Stem cells offer a powerful way to study the early
development of the embryo. They can be grown in the lab in
vast numbers and pushed towards making a huge assortment
of cell types, including brain, blood, bone and muscle.
Recently, several researchers have found ways to join
stem cells together into small 3D balls of cells, which
L A B E T HIC S
STEM-CELL
SCIENCE
WILL RAISE
QUESTIONS
Studying embryos will be more useful than
ever, if we can resolve the moral conundrum
By Naomi Moris
facilitate the creation of tiny embryo-like structures. These
are currently rudimentary – the structures can be variable,
they are inefficient to create and are unable to develop much
further. Next year, we are likely to see improvements, with
more advanced embryo-like structures made from stem cells.
And we are also likely to see scientists using these models
to investigate specific problems, such as how the embryo
implants into the uterus, how organs start to develop or
how the embryo ensures that cells are in the right positions.
Such research has traditionally been difficult to perform
with human embryos. Parents using IVF are able to donate
their surplus embryos, but regulation (upheld internationally
and enshrined in law in the UK) prevents researchers from
culturing them beyond 14 days. This makes it impossible
to study the progress of the human embryo directly as
it changes from a cluster of cells to a structure with the
organisation of a rudimentary body – when it is between
two and four weeks old. The Interna- H E A LTH 04 3
tional Society for Stem Cell Research,
which represents researchers in this field,
has called for a public dialogue about
whether this limit should be changed.
It is proposing that human embryo culture
should be extended on a case-by-
case basis. How regulatory bodies will
respond to this remains to be seen.
In the meantime, stem-cell embryo-like
models might mitigate some of the need
to use “real” human embryos at all. They
will allow researchers to perform precise
studies of embryonic development, seeing
how they react when a gene is mutated,
for example, or when they are exposed to
dangerous chemicals. Because they are
made from stem cells, they could even
be generated by taking blood or skin
samples from patients with a birth defect
themselves and winding back the clock to
an embryo-like state. This could help us
figure out how the defect occurred, and
perhaps even take steps to reduce the
incidence of such disorders in the future.
The development of embryo-like
models will raise many new ethical
questions. Other than a potential for
moving down a slippery slope towards
cloning, stem-cell-based embryo models
begin to blur the line between what we
regard as human or not. Is an early-stage
human embryo, when it’s just a small
group of 16 cells, more valuable if it comes
from the union of sperm and egg? Or is
it the same as if it is derived in the lab
from stem cells? Should the moral status
often applied to human embryos also
apply to groups of cells, even in arrange-
ments that might only vaguely mirror
elements of actual embryo development?
As we push further towards models that
could alleviate the devastating conditions
faced at the very start of life, we will also
find ourselves challenged as a society to
ask big questions, including the funda-
mental issue of what it means to be human.
Naomi Moris is group
leader of the Stem Cell
& Human Development
Laboratory at The Francis
Crick Institute in London
04 4 H E A LTH DI A GNO S T IC R E V OL U T ION

PEOPLE WILL TAKE

CONTROL OF
THEIR HEALTHCARE
Self-testing and early intervention will
boost quality of life, but must be for all

The Covid-19 pandemic has made many
of us all too familiar with self-testing,
putting us at the heart of the diagnostic
process. Next year, that will accelerate,
bringing in an age of more predictive,
personalised and self-managed medicine.
Health screening is not new. In many
countries, women routinely undertake
breast and cervical cancer checks, and
most older citizens in richer countries
have comprehensive health checks as part
of their health service or insurance plan.
But several incremental shifts are changing
the way we think about our healthcare.
To begin with, we now have more exami-
nations available, covering a wider range of
conditions. The Galleri test, for example,
which looks for abnormal DNA in a blood
sample and can detect more than 50
types of cancer at relatively early stages,
is the subject of a clinical trial by the NHS.
Tests are also becoming more accurate.
This will be vital as both individuals and
health systems are much less inclined to
use ones that generate a significant number
of either false positives or false negatives.
We will also be able to target tests better
to include vulnerable groups. Several
cutting-edge health systems – including, for
example, Intermountain Healthcare in Utah
– are now providing genetic profiling of their
patients as a core element of their health
plan. This will not only allow us to spot early
signs of disease more accurately, but the
data these generate will enable researchers
to better understand the links between
social factors and disease prevalence.
Tests are also becoming less invasive and
easier to administer, allowing the process
to be undertaken by individuals in their
own home at a time of their own choosing.
This will increase the number of tests
performed. Meanwhile, smart devices will
By Matthew Taylor
Matthew Taylor
is chief executive
of the UK’s National
Health Service
Confederation
help embed self-testing and day-to-day
monitoring of health and wellbeing into a
practical continuum of self-care.
What is less certain are the implica-
tions of this shift. While medtech offers
the long-term prospect of moving money
from expensive late treatment to earlier
prevention, one immediate effect could be
more people wanting more interventions,
based not just on having an illness but on
the risk of having one. With healthcare costs
rising across the world and with nearly six
million people on NHS waiting lists, we will
need to ask if our current systems have
the capacity to offer useful support and
treatment to many “worried well” citizens.
With insurance-based systems there will
also be the danger of discrimination against
those who posses a greater disease risk. The
pandemic highlighted the health inequalities
in our societies and, unless we grasp that
nettle, only the fortunate and empowered
will benefit from the new opportunities
frequent testing offers. This will require
policy changes and education. As we have
seen with the roll-out of coronavirus vacci-
nations, a number of factors mean that
society’s least advantaged are also often the
least likely to have the confidence or trust
to avail themselves of health protection.
The diagnostic revolution in 2022 will
make a major difference to our healthy-life
expectancy. We will embark on a future
in which healthcare is as much about
prediction, prevention and personal action
as the treatment of patients by profes-
sionals. But, if we want this new world to
come about quickly and – just as important
– fairly, we need to think not just about new
health tests or health systems, but about
how our societies are able to offer this
opportunity for better health to everyone.

Around halfway through 2022, we will
have witnessed a number of significant
breakthroughs in ways in which we can
engineer the body’s immune system to
fight disease. The pandemic has already
led to the development of new types of
vaccine, such as those based on mRNA,
and their use will be expanded next year
to protect us against other pathogens. But
we will also see other ways of harnessing
the immune system to fight disease.
One of these will be new types of
antibody-based medicine. Antibodies
are produced by the body in response to
infection and we have worked out ways of
using artificially manufactured antibodies
to mark cancer cells for destruction. We
can also boost the body’s immune cells’
reactivity against cancer or dampen the
immune activity that causes problems in
rheumatoid arthritis. Indeed, antibodies
are already the basis of seven out of ten
IMMUNI T Y UP GR A DE D
WE WILL CUSTOM-
BUILD ANTIBODIES
From targeting cancers to combating viruses, the human immune system
will be harnessed to reach the parts other therapies and medicines can’t
By Daniel M. Davis
Daniel M. Davis
is a professor of
immunology
based at
the University
of Manchester,
and is the
author of The
Secret Body
of the world’s most profitable medicines.
These antibodies are used in a way which
exploits their natural ability to lock onto
specific targets. The design of antibodies
themselves has been left relatively
untouched. In 2022, all that will change.
Now, using genetic engineering or by
separating and recombining parts of the
protein chemically, we have tools which
can alter the basic structure of what
an antibody is. These will enable us to
produce all manner of antibody-based
medicines. For example, we will be able to
manufacture antibodies that can recognise
and attach to three separate targets at once
– maybe a cancer cell, a receptor protein
that activates immune cells and another
immune cell protein that strengthens the
response. Already in development is an
antibody that can lock onto three different
parts of the outside coating of a virus, such
as HIV. This should make it harder for the
virus to mutate and avoid being targeted.
Another type of immune-based medicine
set to gain prominence in 2022 is CAR T-cell
therapy. Here, T cells are extracted from a
patient’s blood and genetically manipu-
lated to endow them with a new receptor
that targets the patient’s own cancer. The
engineered T-cells are then infused back,
hopefully now able to kill the patient’s
cancer cells. To some extent this type of
therapy is already used: some children or
young adults with B-cell acute lymphoblastic
leukaemia have been given CAR T-cell
therapy with some striking results, but also
unwanted side effects and relapses in some
patients. Next year, this type of therapy will
expand by using different types of immune
cell, or different versions of receptors, and
so on. CAR T-cells could be engineered, for
example, to kill off a problematic subset of
the body‘s own immune cells which are
causing an autoimmune disease.
Our continuing understanding of the
immune system will also enable us to
develop new diagnostic tools. Artificial
intelligence is already providing us with
an unprecedented depth of analysis
around immune cells. It is also helping
us to correlate their parameters with, for
example, the severity of symptoms a person
has experienced with coronavirus infection.
Next year, we will be able to look for immune
signatures that correlate with severe cases
of Covid-19 and other diseases, and be able
to predict the trajectory of an illness and
adjust treatment accordingly. In 2022 and
beyond, our increasing knowledge of the
immune system will lead to new medicines
and new approaches to medicine.
 E A R LY DE T E C T ION
WE WILL GET
AHEAD
OF DISEASES
Data-driven predictive healthcare
will become the standard in 2022
By J. Craig Venter
If the Covid-19 pandemic has taught us
one thing, it is that it is far better to prevent
a disease than try to treat it. In 2022, we
will build on this insight to deal with other
“pandemics” of disease – obesity, heart
disease, cancer and dementia – which we
can now address by investing in prevention
through the intelligent use of science.
Wellness – feeling healthy with an
apparent lack of symptoms of disease –
is a self-determination made without true
knowledge of the state of our bodies. For
most of human history, that was all we had
to go on. We only went to the doctor when
we seemed unwell. Now, health profes-
sionals can tell us if we are disease-free or
not, when we cannot do so for ourselves.
Research we have done over several years
at Human Longevity and at the Venter
Institute has shown through MRI scans that
three per cent of individuals over 50 have
a significant tumour of which they were
unaware. The majority of those, including
myself, are now cancer free, more than
five years after diagnosis and treatment.
This is the likely maximum lifespan I would
J Craig Venter is CEO
and founder of the J
Craig Venter Institute
and founder of
Human Longevity Inc
have had, had my cancer not been detected when it was.
Next year, MRI scans will become even more powerful when
combined with new computer algorithms that post-process
the raw MRI data. This will allow us to detect even smaller
tumours, particularly when coupled with new lab tests that
can recognise tumour DNA in someone’s blood before they Pre-pandemic plans
become visible. In 2022, these new tests will even indicate In 2022, Dr. Anthony
from which organ the DNA came. The combination of MRI with Fauci will initiate
circulating tumour DNA tests will begin to replace mammo- a “prototype”
grams for breast cancer – removing exposure to dangerous vaccine programme
radiation, improving both safety and breast-cancer diagnosis. in anticipation of
We will also be able to detect cases of Alzheimer’s disease a the next pandemic
lot earlier. Increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s can be, in – an idea originally
part, predicted from the genetic code but, without other infor- pitched by Dr. Barney
mation, those predictions are not diagnostic. In 2022, genome Graham in 2017. Using
tests will be combined with MRI brain scans, which can reveal methodologies and
early brain deterioration, and PET scans, which can detect the research capabilities
amount of amyloid in the brain. Human Longevity has been similar to those that
able to detect early Alzheimer’s disease prior to the onset of produced the Covid-19
symptoms. Numerous studies have shown that changes in brain vaccines, it would draw
activity, diet and preventive pharmaceuticals enable the slowing on existing research
of disease progression. MRI brain scans have also proved to to create protection
have an unexpected benefit. One per cent of all “healthy” against viruses from 20
tested individuals had a brain aneurysm, something usually virus families. By 2027,
only discovered when someone has a massive brain bleed. Dr. Fauci aims to have
In 2022, we will combine human genomics with extensive prototype vaccines
phenotype data – such as whole-body MRI scans, metabo- for ten of the 20 virus
lomics, microbiome data, blood DNA cancer tests and data families targeted. SV
from wearable diagnostic devices – to make the practice of
medicine much more predictable, thereby preventing disease.
It will be up to us humans to acknowledge that we don’t always
know when we are unwell and to make use of the continuous
improvements in diagnostic tools that the world now offers us.
 More than 300 million people worldwide
suffer from some form of infertility. Many
are opting for parenthood at a later stage
in life – in their thirties and forties – when
the quality of their gametes (the egg and
sperm) is no longer at their biological
prime. Recent studies also show that we
are simply not as fertile as our grand-
parents. According to Shanna Shaw, an
environmental and reproductive epide-
miologist at the Icahn School of Medicine,
and author of the book Count Down, the
average men’s sperm concentration – that
is, the number of sperm per millilitre of
semen – has decreased by more than 50
per cent in the past four decades, with the
blame placed on factors such as environ-
mental pollution and unhealthy lifestyles.
Increasingly, couples have been
forced to resort to assisted reproductive
SM A R T E R F E R T IL I T Y
EMBRYOLOGIST
ROBOTS WILL
TRANSFORM IVF
The odds of conception will be boosted for
many couples, as artificial intelligence, data
and automation give nature a helping hand
By Mohamed Taha
techniques such as in vitro fertilisation,
commonly known as IVF. According to
the US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, about nine million babies have
been born using IVF since the first such
case in 1978. It estimates that number will
reach 200 million in 2100. In 2022, we will
see the increased use of robotics and
automation to meet that demand, while
also improving the effectiveness of IVF for
couples who are struggling to conceive.
Many of the protocols involved in an
IVF procedure, from sperm analysis to
embryo selection, are still conducted
manually and without any regulatory
oversight. IVF remains not only expensive
(a full treatment typically costs up to
£50,000) but also dismally ineffective,
with a success rate of merely 25 per cent.
We are now seeing a new generation
of startups dedicated to changing this
with robotics and machine learning.
San Francisco-based Alife Health, for
instance, is using AI to study massive sets
of historical data and eventually learn
to identify the most viable treatment
for couples undergoing IVF, improving
chances of a successful pregnancy.
New York-based TMRW is automating
IVF storage. It has built a robotic platform
that automatically tags the vials used to
store eggs and embryos with radio-
frequency identification (RFID) chips.
They are then stored in liquid nitrogen
tanks with sensors that constantly monitor
variations of temperature and nitrogen.
Mojo, the startup I co-founded in
2017, has developed a smart micro-
H E A LTH 047
scope that uses AI to scan sperm
samples and automatically count the
number of sperm cells, and analyse their
motility, morphology and DNA integrity.
Independent clinical trials have shown
that our technology has a 97 per cent
agreement with the gold-standard analysis
performed according to the WHO guide-
lines. The only difference is that our small
robot can do in four minutes what it takes
a skilled lab technician 30 minutes to do.
Ultimately, for many of these startups,
including Mojo, the goal is to remove
the human factor entirely, and replace
IVF fertility clinics with an integrated lab
of intelligent embryologist robots. In 2022,
we will see the first-ever successful IVF
procedure – from the gamete selection
to egg fertilisation – carried out without
human intervention The hope is that this
AI embryologist will not only increase the
probability of IVF success to about 75 per
cent, it will also make the process faster,
cheaper, safer and more accessible. With
no humans involved, artificial fertility will
no longer be a painful, heartbreaking
and often financially costly experience,
but instead a hopeful and humane one.
Mohamed Taha
is co-founder and
chief executive
officer of fertility
startup, Mojo
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 SECTIO N 4 EN VIRO NM ENT 049

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Bill Gates
Michelle You
Sameh Wahba
Ellen MacArthur
Greg Jackson
Antoine Hubert
Bill Gross
Vanessa Nakate

ENVIRONMENT

ILLUSTR ATION

Luis Mendo
C L E A N T E C HNOL O GIE S fuels. These investments will be guided by
better tools such as the Emerging Climate
Technology Framework developed by
the nonprofit Carbon Disclosure Project

WE WILL (CDP), which measures the impact

that today’s investments on clean energy
will have on tomorrow’s emissions.

AT LAST We will also see the private and public

sectors harnessing their buying power to
create new markets for clean products

TAKE – such as committing to buy fleets of

electric vehicles, use cleaner steel and
cement for their building projects or

ACTION get more electricity from zero-carbon

sources. As  consumption of these
products increase, their markets will
In 2022, a clean Industrial Revolution become more mature – spurring innovation
will spur progress to reaching net zero and moving their prices downward.
The more involved governments and
By Bill Gates companies become in eliminating emissions,
the more they need to partner with others.
So my third prediction is that we’ll see
the rise of new ways of working together.
To avoid a climate disaster, the entire world needs to change the way it does Governments and the private sector will
business. It’s hard to overstate the extent of the shift that’s required. We need new create new operating models so that we
ways to grow food, make things, move around, generate electricity, and heat and cool can build the markets for these products
our buildings, all without releasing greenhouse gases. What the world needs right now and accelerate the transition to a clean
is a new, clean Industrial Revolution, so we can reach net zero by 2050. economy. One example is the work that the
That’s an ambitious goal, but it’s achievable. I think three things will happen in 2022 European Commission is doing with Break-
that will accelerate the essential shift to a clean economy. through Energy, a network of investment
The first is that climate change will remain a high priority. This may seem like a vehicles, philanthropic programmes and
no-brainer, but in fact it will represent a break from the past. After the 2008 recession, advocacy efforts that I founded. In the
polls showed that climate change fell far down the list of priorities for voters around next five years, Breakthrough Energy and
the world. In this crisis, though, climate change is not taking a back seat. Even in places the European Commission will mobilise
devastated by the pandemic, young people, activists, shareholders and employees up to $1 billion (£722 million) to build
will hold government and corporate leaders accountable for making real progress. large-scale, commercial-demonstration
Secondly, business and political leaders across the globe will respond to these projects for climate-smart technologies,
demands with concrete plans to eliminate emissions. This too will be a break from generating the learning-by-doing that
the past, when governments and corporations could make gauzy, feel-good promises is essential to lowering the costs of new
that didn’t actually do much to solve the problem. Those days are gone. solutions. Even more partnerships like
In 2022 and beyond, companies will be given credit not just for investing in sustainability, this one will emerge in 2022.
but for making the right types of investments – especially those in clean technologies that I’m excited for the year ahead and
reduce future emissions. Investors will accelerate the move away from technologies that believe that we are just at the beginning
contribute to climate change, building on a global trend that has seen private capital invest of a revolution that will be powered by the
more and more in the energy transition, growing to $500 billion (£361 billion) last year. next generation of clean technologies.
Investors will also increasingly reward companies that take courageous steps to fund The challenge ahead couldn’t be greater,
technologies that we need to reach zero, but that haven’t been deployed yet: clean but the seeds of the net-zero economy are
hydrogen; direct air capture; long-duration storage of electricity; sustainable aviation being planted around the world.

Bill Gates is the

founder of the Bill
& Melinda Gates
Foundation
and of TerraPower
05 2 ENVI RO NMENT
C O 2 C A P T UR E
TECH CEOS WILL LEAD
THE WAY IN SUPERCHARGING
CARBON REMOVAL
Ineffective corporate offsetting schemes will fall by the
wayside as entrepreneurs go all-in on CO2 direct-capture tech
By Michelle You
The climate emergency has become
impossible for the private sector to ignore.
As of 2021, at least one fifth of the world’s
2,000 largest public companies have made
a net-zero commitment, and these kind of
corporate pledges have tripled in one year.
By 2022, every tech unicorn CEO will have
a net-zero plan – but it will become apparent
that reducing emissions won’t be enough.
Next year we will understand that the way to
reach net zero is through carbon removal.
The tech sector already has a carbon
footprint larger than the entire aviation
industry, and it will soon be non-negotiable
for tech CEOs to have a net-zero mandate
– employees, customers, board, investors
and communities will demand it. And so will
the planet, which is already warming more
quickly than UN scientists previously feared.
In 2022, tech CEOs will recognise that, if
we want to stay alive as a species, they can’t
just reduce their companies’ emissions
and then plug the gaps with conventional
offsetting schemes. To get to net zero,
companies’ own carbon emissions must
be removed from the atmosphere.
In 2022, carbon removal – once the
preserve of wonks and early adopters –
will become mainstream, while ineffective
carbon-offsetting projects lose their
place as the bedrock of corporate climate
programmes. The most ambitious tech
Michelle You
is co-founder
and CEO of
Supercritical
and a member
of the Tech
Zero taskforce
CEOs will follow in the footsteps of Microsoft
and commit to erasing their historical
lifetime emissions with carbon removal.
Many of these technologies are still in
their infancy, but we have no choice other
than to scale them if we want to stay below
1.5°C of warming and meet the goals of the
2015 Paris Agreement. Even conservatively,
getting there means removing eight billion
tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere
every year by 2050 – that’s about 20 per
cent of what the world emits annually.
We’ve only removed a few thousand
tonnes via these early technologies. But
from 2022, direct air capture, enhanced
weathering, biochar and kelp sequestration
will be the topic of dinner-table conver-
sations around the world. As awareness
builds, every child will soon be asking
the adults around them what they’re doing
to help these technologies scale.
Instead of being daunted by such
scaling requirements and the staggering
associated cost curves, tech CEOs will
be the first to mobilise. These entrepre-
neurs and visionaries understand what it
means to be an early adopter of a product,
they understand Wright’s law – that the
cost of an innovation falls as it scales –
and they know that their early spend will
catalyse an industry that humanity won’t
be alive without. Their adoption of carbon-
removal technologies will be essential.
P O S T- C O V ID C I T Y mostly pedestrian boulevard. Barcelona has
closed off many streets to cars in its historic
centre, converting them into pedestrian
spaces accessible to residents.
INCLUSIVE, Some cities are taking liveability further
by developing “15-minute city” plans where
LIVEABLE day-to-day needs – shopping, education,
leisure and (sometimes) work – are
CITIES WILL within a 15-minute distance from home.
Paris and Milan are aggressively pursuing
THRIVE such plans for self-sufficient neighbour-
hoods to reduce unnecessary commutes,
Urban spaces, workplaces and access while also promoting walking and cycling.
to infrastructure will all be reinvented Cities will also invest in sustainability.
Loss of land, nature and biodiversity to
By Sameh Wahba urban expansion has had negative environ-
mental and public-health impacts in many
cities across the world, leading to increased
flooding, an urban “heat island” effect,
Cities were hit hard by Covid-19, which raised questions about their long-term futures. worsening air pollution, lower access to
Many urban areas saw an exodus of the privileged, who chose to work remotely in their fresh food and the spread of zoonotic
second homes, as rents tumbled and the decrease in human activity lowered air pollution. diseases. Rapidly growing Asian cities –
In 2022, cities will bounce back, becoming more liveable, inclusive areas. Downtowns will Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai and Bangkok – are
become more focused on prioritising mixed-use developments, comprising residential, already investing in reducing air pollution
commercial and open space. We are already seeing moves in this direction in London. and integrating nature to tackle flooding
Coworking spaces and hybrid ways of working will reduce the need to live close to and heat. This will continue in 2022.
offices in central districts, which often came at the expense of high rents and small units. But the most important foundation of
Importantly, cities will prioritise liveability. Cultural amenities, museums, public services the post-Covid city will be inclusivity. While
such as transport, educational institutions, open spaces and access to nature will be major some may live in gated communities to avoid
determinants in attracting people back to urban living. City authorities are already investing city crime, no equivalent ring-fencing exists
in greening their cities, adding open space and cycle lanes, and expanding pedestriani- to contain a pandemic. As long as there are
sation at the expense of roadways. They are also improving public transport and public still slums and poor neighbourhoods where
amenities, and prioritising support for the art, culture and creative industries. In February people lack decent housing and sanitation,
2020, Bogotá announced a four-year plan to add 280km of bicycle lanes, a 50 per cent and with no public space, pandemics, social
increase of its existing network; within one month, the city had added 84km of emergency unrest and violence will continue to find
lanes. Freetown has begun a three-year project to plant one million trees. Auckland is fertile ground. Cities will realise the need
widening pavements. Paris is transforming the iconic Champs-Elysées into a green and to invest in upgrading slums and expanding
access to housing and infrastructure. They
will see that affordable housing is a must
for essential workers – police, teachers,
nurses, rubbish collectors, restaurant
workers and baristas – without whom the
city cannot function. And without a diversity
of people and cultures, cities will miss out
on creativity, innovation and resilience.
The demise of cities is nowhere in sight,
even after a global pandemic, but to thrive,
they will need to work hard to become
liveable, sustainable and inclusive places.

Sameh Wahba
is global director,
urban, resilience and
land global practice,
at the World Bank
05 4 ENV IRO NMENT

WA S T E-F R E E WAT E R S In mid-2020, as the world’s attention was focused

on tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, the scale of
another pressing global challenge – plastic waste
and pollution – was being quantified in one of the

WE FINALLY most analytically robust studies ever produced on

ocean plastics. Breaking the Plastic Wave, which
my foundation produced, paints a bleak picture of

FIGHT PLASTIC 2040, when it projects ocean plastic stocks will have
reached over 600 million tonnes due to increased
production and insufficient collection infrastructure.

POLLUTION This vision of the future doesn’t have to become

Governments around the world will create a binding treaty to
tackle the blight of the oceans in a cohesive, scaled-up effort
By Ellen MacArthur
reality. In 2022, governments around the world will
come together to create a binding global treaty to
address plastic waste and pollution at its source.
Support for such a treaty has already been
expressed by leading businesses, financial institu-
tions, national governments, and more than two
million people via a public petition. A plastic treaty
could have as big an impact as the Montreal protocol
that has led to the gradual repair of the ozone layer.
Many businesses and governments have set
ambitious targets and taken action to address
plastic waste and pollution, not least through the
Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s Global Commitment
and Plastics Pact network. These two initiatives
alone unite more than 1,000 organisations behind
a common vision of a circular economy for plastic, in
which all the plastic items we don’t need are elimi-
nated, the ones we do need are designed for reuse,
recycling or composting, and those that we use are
kept in the economy and out of the environment.
Initiatives such as this have begun to deliver
change among market leaders. Their use of recycled
content in plastic packaging is increasing and these
Ellen MacArthur
is founder of the
UK charity the
Ellen MacArthur
Foundation
companies have committed to significantly reduce
use of virgin plastics by 2025. This means that fossil
resources are being left in the ground, and plastic is
being used again and again. Some big businesses have
also piloted successful packaging-reuse models. This
includes Danone, which is working closely with Loop
by Terracycle to provide some of its food products in
returnable jars, and Unilever, which is trialling “refill
on the go” for washing-up liquid and detergent in
Chile, and for its Sedal shampoo brand in Mexico.
However, voluntary commitments can only do
so much. To scale these efforts globally and across
industries in order to end to plastic waste and
pollution, more organisations must take urgent action.
Building on important work carried out under
the Canadian G7 and Japanese G20 presidencies in
2021, the G20 agreed to engage fully in upcoming UN
discussions on how to take further decisive measures.
A treaty is the next necessary step and will provide
the framework for building capabilities and institu-
tional mechanisms, and for increased international
co-ordination to solve this crisis. As a global policy
framework, it will underpin sectoral, regional and
national action plans, and support implementation.
The beginnings of a global treaty in 2022 will
harmonise policy efforts, enhance investment
planning, and stimulate innovation and infrastructure
development for a world free of plastic pollution.
R E NE WA B L E HE AT ING
THE ELECTRIC HEAT
PUMP MARKET
WILL REALLY WARM UP
Warming our homes and buildings by pumping heat from
the ground will become an economical option for many
By Greg Jackson
Almost 50 per cent of UK electricity now comes from renewable
sources, and green energy has moved from niche to normal. However,
almost 90 per cent of our domestic energy usage is still carbon-
emitting. That’s because gas remains the dominant source of home
heating. Next year, that will start to change, thanks to a wider adoption
of electric heat pumps, which are three times more energy-effi-
cient than using gas, and can draw their power from clean sources.
Heat pumps take heat from outside a building and deliver it inside
(like air conditioners in reverse). Their energy efficiency comes from
the fact that they use power to move heat rather than to generate it.
Even when outside temperatures are well below 0°C, there is plenty
of heat – remember that absolute zero is -273°C – so there’s a lot of
energy to be extracted. That is why heat pumps work well in all climates.
Heat pumps are common in some countries, but, in most, natural gas
dominates due to price. Purchasing and installing an air-source heat
pump currently costs just under £10,000 – a huge barrier for consumers
when their fossil-fuel-gobbling rivals cost less than £3,500. One reason
for this is that heat pumps are currently a bespoke option, with units
customised to each location. This denies the sector economies of
scale, while putting off potential adopters of the technology.
Next year, that will change, as heat-pump manufacturers turn
their attention to capturing the mass market – bringing costs down
by standardising hardware and training more engineers. In 2022, this
will almost halve the cost of heat-pump retrofits to around £5,500 per
household. Technological innovations will drive improvements, enabling
heat pumps to work in most homes.
In many countries, heating infrastruc-
tures have been designed and built
around a system of artificially cheap
natural gas. In the UK, for example, gas
typically costs around 3p/kWh whereas
electricity costs around 15p/kWh. This
difference is explained in no small part
Greg Jackson by tax policies. About 23 per cent of a UK
is the founder electricity bill is green taxes, compared
and CEO to only two per cent of a gas bill. These
of Octopus high taxes on electricity are common
Energy, a UK across Europe as governments have used
energy firm them to subsidise renewable-electricity
05 6 ENV IRO NMENT
generation. However, this has led to the
perverse situation where electricity is
now increasingly clean, but heavily taxed.
Changes in energy-tax policies will
make green electricity cheaper than
natural gas. With increased competition
in the heating sector – bringing hardware
and installation costs down – 2022 will
see electric heating go mainstream.
Some commentators argue that
countries’ electricity grids will not be
able to cope with that extra demand, but
the opposite is true. Heat pumps are a
good way of using electricity more
efficiently by using spare capacity and
shifting load. We will be able to balance
them with, for example, the charging of
electric cars. On winter evenings, pumps
could be used to discharge some battery
power back into the house, reducing
heating costs at peak times and making
the whole system more efficient. And, as
heat pumps can often run in reverse, they
can act as a cooling system in summer.
In 2022, on the cusp of a green-heating
revolution, we will wonder why we used such
carbon-intensive fuels to heat our homes.
T HE F O OD C H A IN
WE WILL START
USING INSECTS
IN PIG AND
POULTRY FEED
Beating the ‘yuck’ factor will lead to
healthier animals and better food
By Antoine Hubert
In 2022, pig and poultry farmers in the
European Union will be able to feed their
livestock purpose-bred insects, following
the European Commission’s decision in
2021 to amend a ban on farm feed made
Nuclear unplugs of animal remains (and insects) following
In 2022, Germany’s the BSE crisis in 1994. The change in feed
long-term goal regulations means that farmers will be
to decommission allowed to use processed animal proteins
its nuclear plants (PAPs) and insects to feed non-ruminant
will finally be animals including swine, poultry and horses.
accomplished, as (The ban on feeding PAPs to ruminants,
the last six go dark. such as cows and sheep, will continue.)
After the Fukushima Pigs and poultry are the world’s biggest
disaster in 2011, then- consumers of animal feed. In 2020, they
chancellor Angela consumed 260.9 million and 307.3 million
Merkel announced that tonnes respectively, compared with 115.4
all of the remaining million and 41 million for beef and fish.
German nuclear power Most of this feed is made from soya,
plants would be shut cultivation of which is one of the leading
within the decade. causes of deforestation around the
Germany had 17 world, notably in Brazil and the Amazon
nuclear power stations rainforest. Piglets are also fed on fish
in total before 2011, meal, which encourages overfishing.
and around a quarter To reduce this unsustainable supply, the
of Germany’s electric EU has encouraged local soya production
power was nuclear; and the use of alternative, European
renewables now make plant-based proteins, such as the lupin
up over 50 per cent. SV bean, field bean and alfalfa. The licensing
of insect proteins in pig and poultry feed
represents a further step in the devel-
opment of sustainable European feed.
Insects use a fraction of the land and
resources needed by soya, thanks to their
minuscule size and the use of vertical-
farming methods. Licensing their use in pig
and poultry feed in 2022 will help to reduce
unsustainable imports and their impact
on forests and biodiversity. According to
the World Wide Fund for Nature, by 2050,
insect protein could replace a significant
proportion of soya used for animal feed.
In the United Kingdom, for example, this
would mean a reduction of 20 per cent
in the amount of soya being imported.
This will not only be good for our planet,
but for pigs and chickens too. Insects
are part of the natural diet of both wild
pigs and poultry. They constitute up to
ten per cent of a bird’s natural nutrition,
rising to 50 per cent for some birds, such
as turkeys. This, as well as many insects’
strong nutrient profiles, means that
poultry health in particular is improved
by the incorporation of insects into their
diets. Molitor and buffalo mealworms
contain all the amino acids a chicken
needs for optimal development, as
well as having a protein content of 72
per cent. According to research we have
done here at Ÿnsect, the consumption of
insects can lead to a two per cent increase
in poultry carcass and fillet mass.
Incorporating insects into pig and
poultry feed will therefore not only
increase animal wellbeing and industry
efficiency, but also the nutritional value
of the pork and chicken products we
consume, thanks to the animals’ improved
diet and boosted overall health.
Insect proteins will first be used in the
premium pig- and poultry-feed market,
where benefits currently outweigh the
increased cost. After a few years, once
economies of scale are in place, the full
market potential can be reached.
In 2022, it will be important for the
public perception of insects to shift,
so that people feel ready to consume
insect-fed pork and poultry. While insects
undeniably suffer from a certain “yuck
factor” in western culture (especially
among people who have never consumed
insect protein), this is less the case when
the insect is being indirectly consumed
via pork or chicken meat and products.
Research by PROteINSECT, a multi-
disciplinary group investigating the use
of insects as food, suggests that 72.6 per
cent of people globally are willing to eat
fish, chicken or pork from animals fed on
a diet containing insect protein.
Insect-based animal feed is simply a
manifestation of insects’ natural place at
the base of the food chain. In 2022, we will
be feeding them to pigs and poultry, but
the possibilities are vast. In a few years, we
may well be welcoming them to our plate.
Antoine
Hubert is
CEO and
co-founder
of Ÿnsect
05 8 ENVI RO NM ENT
NE W P O W E R GE NE R AT ION
PHYSICS WILL DRIVE
AN ENERGY SHIFT
We’ll get closer to replacing fossil fuels thanks
to a new generation of clean power sources
By Bill Gross
In 2022, advances in engineering and
computational capabilities will dramat-
ically improve the economics of clean
energy, making it a viable option for all.
As the prime source of energy transitions
from one branch of science to another,
we will embark on an era that will markedly
improve society – while also undoing the
excesses of the previous age – thanks to
the simple mathematics of supply and
demand. In short, physics will save us.
Energy is the lifeblood of civilisation.
Humanity’s 10,000-year quest for it
has always been defined by two critical
factors that still hold true: it has to be
cheap and we’ll always need more of it.
In the beginning, we got all of our
energy from biology – from manpower
and the plants and foods we consumed. As
our energy needs increased, we sought to
leverage other sources, still using biology.
We used the energy source provided by
the muscles of animals, harnessing the ox,
the horse, the camel and more. Let’s call
this the Age of Biology-Supplied Energy.
Just over a century ago, things changed
dramatically. Because of our ever-
increasing energy needs, we switched
from biology to chemistry. To create
the energy we urgently required, we
began burning things. Let’s call this the
Age of Chemistry-Supplied Energy.
Thanks to this new approach, humanity
witnessed a huge explosion in global GDP
per capita. This new way of getting our
energy helped to bring about the modern
industrialised world as we know it.
As we all now know, it also changed the
world in another, more serious way. The
problem with getting our energy from
chemistry was that the results of all that
burning went into the air, eroding the
atmosphere and increasing the threat
of climate change that we confront today.
Starting just a few years ago, we entered
another age, with physics now primed to
replace chemistry as the most econom-
ically practical source of energy. Physics
– by harnessing renewable Sun and wind
power – has enabled, for the first time,
access to a massive source of energy
that is cheaper than chemistry-provided
energy, all while putting nothing harmful
into the atmosphere. We are at the dawn
of the Age of Physics-Supplied Energy.
Through physics and our engineering
a n d c o m p u ta t i o na l s k i l ls , we a re
converting sunlight to useful energy far
more cheaply than anything we can burn.
By embracing physics, we are also solving
issues regarding these energy sources,
such as intermittency, while availing
ourselves of their massive advantages
– most prominently, their abundance.
The Sun provides 10,000 times more
energy than is needed by all of humanity,
and unlike fossil fuels, solar energy gets
cheaper as more is produced. For every
doubling in solar energy production,
costs fall more than 20 per cent.
Today, with the ubiquitous technology
of the microprocessor, mass production
and new materials, we are building the
infrastructure to capture, convert and
transport energy from where sunshine
is abundant to where it’s needed, and
to store it for use when the Sun is not
shining. These are engineering challenges,
nothing more – and we will continue
to see solutions to them in 2022.
This new Age of Physics-Supplied
Energ y will not simply replace our
fossil-fuel sources but grow far beyond
them, because, as we make more low-cost,
clean energy available to civilisation,
we will improve life in almost every way.
Bill Gross is
the founder
and CEO of
solar-energy
firm Heliogen
A DDR E S SING IMPA C T S
AFRICA GETS A
CLIMATE PLAN
In 2022, the global spotlight will finally fall on the effects of
pollution on Africans, and international action will be taken
By Vanessa Nakate
Next autumn, an African country, most
likely Egypt, will host COP27 – the 27th
UN Climate Change conference. This will
come on the heels of two more Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports, due to be released next year,
which will outline the worsening impacts
of climate change, the adaptations the
world needs to make and our vulnerabilities
to the climate crisis. These are issues that
particularly affect the African continent.
The combined focus that COP27 and the
IPCC bring will mean Africa’s climate story
is at last in the global media spotlight.
Africa has been facing escalating
climate-related disasters for years.
This summer, six million people in Angola
faced starvation as a result of the worst
drought the country has seen in 40 years.
Thousands of Angolan “climate refugees”
have been forced to cross the border
into Namibia. Similar droughts have
crippled the north and the south of the
continent, with Algeria and Madagascar
both devastated by water shortages.
Meanwhile, locusts – exacerbated
by cyclones – are swarming east Africa, and
agriculture in west Africa is being deeply
affected by a shifting monsoon.
Africa has long suffered from a lack
of attention from countries and popula-
tions outside the continent. Climate
events such as flooding in Germany and
China and wildfires in Canada and Greece
this year, have, rightly, been covered
around the world. Flooding in Nigeria and
Uganda has largely been ignored.
In 2022, this balance will shift. As bodies
such as the IPCC focus on how climate
change is already affecting people and what
we must do to adapt, Africa cannot be left
out. The continent has contributed only
three per cent of global historic emissions,
yet it is experiencing some of the worst
impacts of climate change and has the least
resources to be able to adapt. Conver-
sations will begin to centre on how rich
countries – which are also the biggest
polluters – can help African countries
(and others without the means) to be
more resilient to the inevitable devastation
they face. The UN’s “Loss and Damage”
policy proposal, the idea that big polluters
compensate affected nations for the
damage and destruction they have already
experienced due to climate change (an idea
Vanessa Nakate
is a climate
justice
activist based
in Uganda
often opposed by developed nations), will
be brought back onto the international
climate agenda by African voices.
Africa, although historically a very small
contributor to pollution, will also need to
play its part in reducing global carbon
emissions. In particular, it will need help
to transition to clean energy, as electricity
demand on the continent is predicted to
double by 2030. However, money and
investment still continues to pour into
African countries from non-African corpo-
rations or governments to extract and burn
fossil fuels. The 1,400km-long East Africa
Crude Oil Pipeline from Hoima, Uganda,
to the port of Tanga in Tanzania, currently
being built by French oil company Total,
is a potent example of this. The project
will displace local people and destroy
farmlands and biodiversity, yet profits will
largely be taken out of the continent.
Next year, we will need that money
to stop flowing into fossil fuels and to
be used instead to scale the adoption
of renewables and invest in nature. The
Congo, for example, is home to the world’s
second-largest tropical rainforest. Like the
Amazon, it is a vital global component for
regulating the Earth’s climate. Unlike the
Amazon, however, it is not the focus of the
world’s attention, even though escalating
deforestation there threatens us all.
In 2022, events will line up to put Africa
in the spotlight of the global climate
conversation – but this attention is well
overdue. The world needs to reckon with
the drought, famine, floods, cyclones,
destruction and death that are here
now, and which continue to get worse.
That is, unless governments everywhere
finally begin to take drastic action in line
with what the science is telling us.
 THINGS ARE LOOKING UP FOR ARCHITECTURE IN 2022,
AS A NUMBER OF TALL, SUPERTALL AND MEGATALL BUILDINGS AIM
E N V IR ONME N T TO PACK AN ENTIRE URBAN METROPOLIS INTO A CITY BLOCK

The only way is up

By Sanjana Varghese

1. ICONIC TOWER
Scheduled to be completed in 2022, the Iconic
Tower will be the tallest building on the African
continent and the centrepiece of the business
district in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital,
a new capital city being built 45 kilometres east
of Cairo. The tower will feature 78 floors (with
basement levels) of offices, apartments and a
hotel, with an observation deck on the 74th floor.
VERTICAL CITIES 061
2. 9 DEKALB AVENUE
Designed by the SHoP architect firm, Brooklyn’s
9 DeKalb Avenue will be the first supertall
skyscraper in New York outside of Manhattan.
Primarily residential, it features design cues
in bronze and marble inspired by an adjoining
landmark building, the Dime Savings Bank of
New York, built in 1906-08. 9 DeKalb Avenue will
reach 325 metres high and have 74 storeys.
3. THE SPIRAL
Bjarke Ingels Group and developer Tishman
Speyer have almost finished constructing
a 317-metre-high supertall skyscraper in
Manhattan’s Hudson Yards. The Spiral will be
the 13th-tallest building in New York and gets its
name from the stepped landscaped terraces that
wrap around its exterior to provide outside space
to every floor. Inside, airy double-height atria
act as informal meeting spaces and encourage
workers to take the stairs between levels. Further
greenery will be accessible in the nearby Phase
3 of New York’s iconic High Line aerial park.
Once completed, The Spiral will have 66 storeys
– of which pharmaceutical giant Pfizer will be
leasing 14 for its 74,000m2 global head office.
4. MERDEKA 118 VERTI CAL CITIES 063
Merdeka 118 is a mixed-use building under
construction in Kuala Lumpur. When finished, it
will be 644 metres high with 118 storeys, earning
it the classification of a “megatall” skyscraper
and making it the second-tallest building in
the world, after the Shanghai Tower. Built to
commemorate Malaysian Independence Day
(Hari Merdeka), it will be owned by Permodalan
Nasional Berhad, the largest fund-management
company in Malaysia. The RM 5 billion (£1.11bn)
cost has been branded wasteful by its critics,
but the Malaysian government has insisted the
investment will bring economic opportunities.
Merdeka 118 will feature retail spaces, hotel
rooms (operated by Park Hyatt), residences,
offices – and parking spots for up to 8,500 cars.
06 4 V ERTICA L CITIES

5. 50 HUDSON YARDS
Designed by Foster + Partners, 50 Hudson Yards
will be New York’s fourth-largest commercial
office tower and will have 58 storeys. At 308
metres it’s not technically a supertall skyscraper,
but it will still be New York’s 14th-tallest building
(its neighbour, The Spiral, will be 13th-tallest).
In 2019, Facebook announced it would occupy
110,000m2 of the building’s 270,000m2. Asset
management firm BlackRock will take 78,700m2.
6. THE HELIX
Breaking ground in 2022 with a scheduled
completion date of 2025, The Helix in Arlington,
northern Virginia will be home to Amazon’s
HQ2 and is designed by Seattle architects
NBBJ (of the infamous Amazon Spheres). Its
106-metre-tall spiral shape has divided critics,
some of whom have compared it unfavourably
to the “poop” emoji, but it is nevertheless an
ambitious project. Like the Spheres and their
indoor rainforests, The Helix also embraces the
biophilia trend in a big way, featuring tranquil,
car-free landscaping (all vehicle access has been
banished underground) and a hikeable vertical
forest that winds around its entire exterior.
 S ECTI O N 5 TR ANSPORT 067

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Neha Palmer
Ram Iyer
Lars Stenqvist
Emma Nehrenheim

TRANSPORT

ILLUSTR ATION

Yo Hosoyamada

EV CHARGING
WILL GET HEAVY
Building infrastructure for electric goods-delivery
lorries will be a tempting prospect for investors
The rate of adoption of electric passenger
vehicles has skyrocketed in recent years
and will only increase. In the US, the federal
administration is pushing for electric
vehicles (EVs) to make up 50 per cent of
all new car sales by 2030. The UK target
is even higher, with a proposed ban by
then on all new petrol and diesel van and
car sales. Electrification of medium- and
heavy-goods vehicles is not far behind and
is following a steeper trajectory.
The big question is how all those
vehicles will be powered. In 2022, a new
asset class will emerge to support EV
charging infrastructure. To avoid getting
burnt, though, investors will need to
understand the opportunities and risks
that surround this complex intersection
of energy, transportation and technology.
In 2022, we will see the beginnings
of a significant deployment of electric
medium-goods vehicles, with heavy-good
vehicles to follow soon after. However,
there will still be a significant gap between
delivering the vehicles and having the
widespread ability to charge them.
In both the US and Europe, charging
these new fleets will put overburdened
grids under more stress. To power 50 artic-
ulated lorries, for example – the type often
seen on motorways – the grid will have to
dispatch a peak load of 50 megawatts of
energy: an order of magnitude required
by a large factory or a hyperscale data
centre. That means that investment in
P O W E R AT S C A L E
By Neha Palmer
charging infrastructure needs to start now.
Fleet-charging equipment will also
be different. Smaller charging units have
become a familiar sight in motorway
service stations and city roadsides –
taking energy directly from the grid and
used mostly during the day for quick
power-ups. However, fleets of heavy-
goods EVs charging simultaneously will
require on-site electricity generation
and storage, as well as robust, grid-
interactive, demand-side management.
As these new integrated load and energy
sources are introduced, they will have the
capability to be a flexible resource, one
that is potentially capable of supporting
the grid by reducing load or even pushing
power onto the grid when needed.
They can even act as a sink for power when
there is excess supply. Smarter controls
and grid rules that allow more flexible
resources will help ease the increase in
demand from EV charging stations.
All of this will require more capital,
risk-management, operations and energy
expertise than most organisations will
have in-house, and will lead to a new
sector emerging of specialist charging-
infrastructure providers. The key to scaling
EV-charging infrastructure in time to meet
demand will be attracting investment into
this nascent asset class, which could prove
to be difficult. As well as understanding the
science and logistics of charging at scale,
investors will need to be able to step in
TR ANSPORT 069
and recontract or even operate a facility
themselves. Contracts for EV charging are
very different from those in more familiar
asset classes, such as solar and wind infra-
structure; they will likely be shorter in term
than the underlying asset-financing term
and may not always be from creditworthy
entities. Asset owners and investors will need
to be able to manage the recontracting risk
that comes at the end of the contract period
and what happens if a customer walks away.
Next year, charging infrastructure will
offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity
for investors to enter a multibillion-dollar
market at the ground level. However, they
will have to develop a thorough under-
standing of consumer demand, real estate,
capital markets and energy to be able
to provide finance at a rate favourable
enough to allow this new asset class to
grow rapidly, while still giving them a
return. In many jurisdictions, the public
and private sector are finally coming
together to support this effort, but, as
we will discover when those first fleets
of medium-goods EVs hit the road
in 2022, there is much work to be done.
Neha Palmer is
chief executive
officer of
TeraWatt
Infrastructure
 C L O SE D -L O OP P O W E R

OLD BATTERIES
GET NEW LIFE
Rather than continue the destructive
race for raw materials, recycling
will be the main source of lithium

By Emma Nehrenheim

and end-of-life or damaged batteries) is in

fact a valuable resource. We have already
shown that, by recovering metals through
hydrometallurgy rather than smelting, we
Against the backdrop of the electric can successfully recover up to 95 per cent
vehicle (EV) revolution, a global race is of an old battery’s materials.
underway to secure the minerals required And it doesn’t just stop at recovery –
to produce masses of lithium-ion batteries. we can restore them to the levels of purity
But next year, we will see that there is an required by the battery industry. In 2022,
alternative to new-battery production – this essential component will not only Electric accelerates
a closed-loop battery industry, in which demonstrate the validity of the recycling Roads in 2022
what goes in one end is ultimately returned, process itself, but show that producing will feature many
recycled and recirculated back into batteries using recycled material does more electric and
manufacturing. Done correctly, this could not compromise on safety or perfor- sustainable vehicles,
end the race for new minerals altogether. mance. Chemically and functionally, a as manufacturers go
In 2022, my team will produce the fresh material cell and a recycled cell will all in on EVs. Subaru’s
world’s first lithium-ion battery that be identical. The only difference will be all-electric Soltera,
features 100 per cent recycled active that the environmental footprint of the Ford’s electric version
material. With recycling and production recycled cell will be drastically improved. of its F-150 and
on the same site, they will provide proof Our hope is that every battery manufac- Mercedes Benz’ EQA
that metals recovered from battery waste turer will embrace recycling themselves. (launching in the US)
can serve as direct and complete substi- One battery will not change the world – will jostle for space
tutes for those mined around the world but what it stands for might. The 1.6 million on the motorways
for battery production today. EVs expected to hit European roads in with Tesla’s long-
To understand why this matters, consider 2022 are but a fraction of the volumes that awaited Cybertruck,
two figures. First, in 2022, some 1.6 million EVs will arrive in coming years. The transition predicted to finally
will enter the European market. Second, an away from the combustion engine is a great roll off the production
average vehicle’s battery requires about 80kg development, but, without recycling, the line later in the year.
of nickel, manganese, cobalt and lithium. environmental cost of this transition will Many car companies
That’s 80kg of raw, virgin materials for each be much greater than necessary. Fortu- are producing EVs
vehicle. In the future, these will be replaced nately, by using clean energy and recycled in 2022 as the first
with metals sourced through recycling. materials, next year will show it is entirely step in longer-term
This first recycled battery will contribute within our power to choose a different sustainability initiatives
to building a net-zero future. By combining future for the new battery industry. – Mercedes-Benz and
reuse with clean energy for its manufac- Ford are committed to
turing, it will enable us to reduce the carbon Emma Nehrenheim becoming fully electric
footprint of batteries by some 80 per cent. is chief by 2030. The next
It’s a widespread misconception that environmental challenge will be the
batteries cannot be recycled. But what officer charging infrastructure
others call battery waste (production scrap of Northvolt and grid capacity. SV
Green hydrogen has long been regarded as a F UE L T IP P ING P OIN T TRANSPORT 071
future solution for carbon neutrality, but many indus-
tries have not considered hydrogen a commercially
viable proposition. Many have doubted whether
there will ever be enough cheap green hydrogen,
while producers have not foreseen the coming
demand and are reluctant to invest in production.
HYDROGEN
But the situation has now changed and 2022 will be
a tipping point for hydrogen as a viable fuel.
The transport industry is already shifting from
MOVES INTO
fossil fuel-driven vehicles to electrified road
transport. Batteries are used in electric cars, but
heavier vehicles such as trucks and construction
HIGH GEAR
equipment will use batteries for some applications The zero-carbon fuel will experience a surge in demand – and
and hydrogen fuel cells for others. Hydrogen can green electricity will enable its production on a scale to match
also serve as a zero-carbon fuel for combustion
engines – a very promising pathway towards the By Lars Stenqvist
decarbonisation of road transport.
In the steel industry, several companies are
moving towards fossil-free steel by replacing coal output, it will be used to store the excess power for future use.
with hydrogen. And we can see the same trend At present, however, most of the world’s hydrogen is
emerging in the cement and chemical industries, produced from natural gas. For this to continue, we must
which currently use large amounts of fossil fuel. combine it with carbon capture and storage. The good news
All of this will create a huge demand for hydrogen. In is that 2022 will be a breakthrough year for such technology.
order to meet that demand, the availability of cheap, Demand for hydrogen in the future will be huge, and
green electricity to produce clean hydrogen using Lars we will see producers building sustainable plants for its
electrolysis to split water into oxygen and hydrogen Stenqvist production, filling-station infrastructure upgraded to supply
will be key. Wind and solar-power generation are is chief the transport sector and governments all over the world
both growing fast and will be critical to this operation. technology supporting the transition from fossil fuels to green hydrogen.
And producing hydrogen when output is high will officer of In 2022, hydrogen will no longer be a future solution
help even out fluctuations in supply. At times of high Volvo Group to climate change – it will be central to saving our planet.

Three big trends in connectivity are set to
revolutionise our roads in the next five to
ten years: edge computing, 5G and vehicle-
to-everything (V2X) communications. In
2022, edge-node sensors will be installed
at roadsides around the world as an initial
step in bringing all three together as part
of the transport infrastructure.
Edge-based computing focuses on
shifting the intelligence and data processing
much closer to the original data source. Edge
servers, known as edge nodes, are deployed
in close proximity to vehicle networks.
Unlike cloud computing, they can deliver
real-time information without any delay.
The movement of data from cloud-
based to edge-based has started but, in
2022, edge will become more prevalent,
leading to consumers experiencing the first
benefits of true 5G-based communication.
For motorists, this will mean instantaneous
content and high-precision, location-based
Ram Iyer is
vice president,
automotive
division, HARMAN
International
services. For businesses, it will mean being roadside units to improve safety, using them
able to reach customers more effectively. to deliver two-way alerts via an app that
Practically, this will be achieved by pings to keep vulnerable road users, such
plug-and-play edge nodes arriving at as cyclists and pedestrians, protected
roadsides. Unlike previous technology in high-traffic areas. In Austin, Texas, 5G
upgrades, such as adding cell towers, this roadside equipment will be deployed to
won’t require disruptive roadwork – the provide real-time traffic updates and
nodes will primarily be hooked up wirelessly. lane guidance. This will support safety
These edge nodes, incorporated into and mobility applications, including signal
roadside units, will act as location references controllers that grant traffic priority for
to support real-time, precise services. They emergency vehicles, and apps that issue
will provide drivers with information on what alerts warning of incidents or road works.
is happening on the road, such as temporary In other markets, South Korea will
blocks or the closest available parking at continue to scale its infrastructure transfor-
their destination. These time savings will mation in 2022. Here, roadside units are also
NODE S T H AT K NO W
EDGE WILL BE
EVERYWHERE
Ubiquitous, sensor-driven computing will make real-time,
super-localised services the next big innovation space
By Ram Iyer
translate into fuel and cost savings. Uber providing instantaneous information, such
drivers, for example, who earn money based as traffic-light status and lane guidance,
on the number of journeys or deliveries which is supporting trials of autonomous
they complete, will be able to pinpoint a vehicles and extending an existing trial of
specific assigned rider, even in a crowded driverless commercial vehicles in Seoul.
area, or the exact front door for a delivery. Traditionally, the automotive industry is
Businesses will also no longer operate seen to lag behind consumer technology.
solely from the cloud, which relies on But when it comes to providing real-time
customers reaching them via an app or data for people on the go, other sectors
website. Instead, some will start on the edge will try to emulate the industry’s expertise.
and connect with consumers they know are Roadside units are a technological bridge
located close to their services. A car wash, between vehicle capabilities today and the
for example, will be able to send a discount operation of the perfect connected and
code to customers driving nearby. autonomous world of tomorrow. The intro-
These developments have already duction of plug-and-play edge nodes in
begun, with a number of edge-node infra- 2022 will be a trigger for further innova-
structure projects due to be deployed or tions that will give new levels of productivity,
further scaled in 2022. New York is piloting peace of mind and services to road users.
TR ANSPORT 073
Available now
on Amazon
and at major
booksellers
Coming in 2022:
Genomics
Future Work
Superbugs
Green Power
 SECTIO N 6 PO LITIC S 075

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Audrey Tang
Mariana Mazzucato
Maria Konnikova
Bernice Lee and
Ivan Mortimer-Schutts
Dambisa Moyo
Simon Baron-Cohen
Kersti Kaljulaid
Oluseun Onigbinde
Zurab Ashvil

POLITICS

ILLUSTR ATION

Sam Peet
076 POL ITI CS
The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc around the globe in
2020 and 2021. The coronavirus is likely to follow us well into
2022. People around the globe will keep looking for effective
ways to cope with the shared challenges we experience that
transcend physical boundaries. Although it might seem fright-
ening that borders no longer provide the kind of protection
we need to keep us safe in the physical world, we will see an
explosion of opportunities in the digital world – opportunities
relating to the formation of a global neighbourhood.
As the erosion of the traditional concepts of countries,
nations and states accelerates in the digital world, the idea
of “neighbourhoods” based on shared values is flourishing.
We have already seen examples in 2020 and 2021, such as
the #MilkTeaAlliance. This is a collaboration of pro-democracy
citizens that originated from a meme depicting many jurisdic-
tions around east Asia holding up their respective “popular
drinks” (such as Taiwanese bubble tea) in solidarity. 2022 will see
continued evolution toward a generation where distance is no
longer measured in metres, but rather in terms of the experi-
ences one shares in common with other people and groups.
Global neighbourhoods will also bring changes to the way
norms are established. Indeed, we will find ourselves in a world
where the establishment of norms is no longer monopolised
by governments and multilateral organisations. Decentralised,
non-political and non-state actors will play critical roles in this.
Audrey Tang Taiwan’s digital democracy can be seen as a precursor in this
is digital regard. On the country’s online platform, join.gov.tw, anyone can
minister file a petition. There is no need to be affiliated with any political
of Taiwan party. Twice a month, for petitions that gather 5,000 signatures,
ONL INE OP P OR T UNI T IE S
DIGITAL
ALLIES
WILL
UNITE
A global neighbourhood of governments and
citizens will be formed in the online space
By Audrey Tang
we hold face-to-face collaborative meetings across related
ministries to explore ways to incorporate them into policy-
making. In this way, even those who are too young to vote can
nevertheless have a way to start a movement and set a norm.
Technology will be used even more widely to facilitate crowd-
sourced policymaking. Governance models based on what I call
“People-Public-Private Partnerships” are set to be the key to
government transformation. The creation of Taiwan’s Mask Maps
showed people early on in the pandemic where masks were
available in stores. Meanwhile, SMS-based contact tracing and
online vaccination-appointment systems resulted from collab-
oration incorporating open data from social-sector platforms,
government departments and private-sector companies.
With the rediscovery of civic infrastructures on the internet,
civic technologists will unify opinions that are currently dispersed
throughout society and transform them into a motivational
force for creative policies. This will be even more important as
we understand the need for our social, political and economic
strategies to adapt frequently in response to ever-mutating
viruses. An alliance forged between the government, the social
sector and the private sector will thus be in place to meet the
diverse needs of the populace in the shortest possible time.
In 2022, we will see a continued emphasis on “swift and safe”
technologies to bring about such broad participation. Cyber
attacks and disinformation will continue to threaten democracies
worldwide, but Taiwan will continue to share its experiences in
adopting the tactics of “fast, fair and fun” in the fight against the
pandemic and infodemic. Allies of the same mind will step up
and work together to build a resilient global neighbourhood.
NE W S O C I A L C ON T R A C T S
STATES WILL AGAIN
BECOME CENTRAL
TO SOLVING PROBLEMS
Purpose will be put back
into public-private partnerships
By Mariana Mazzucato
Climate change hit home across the
world during 2021 – from flash floods in
central London to “biblical” heatwaves and
record-breaking wildfires across Greece,
the North American west and even Siberia.
And all this was happening while humanity
remained in the throes of a global Covid-19
coronavirus pandemic – the mutually
entangled result of capitalist extraction,
agricultural intensification and zoonotic
spillovers boomeranging back at us.
In 2022, we will see that it is states,
not private entities, that are best placed
to tackle these urgent challenges.
Learning from the European Commis-
sion’s adoption of a policy of “mission-ori-
ented innovation”, to which I contributed,
states will play a more purposeful role in
co-ordinating citizens, companies and
institutions around inspiring visions for
the common good – starting with solving
the urgent problem of climate breakdown.
In 2022, we will see an increase in
the number of countries adopting
mission-oriented innovation policies, with
targets around carbon-neutral cities, for
example, at least doubling. States will also
be central to encouraging innovation to
meet pressing challenges such as transi-
tioning from carbon reliance to renewable
energy and circular production.
Governments will also wake up to the
reality that “building back better” after
Covid-19 cannot just be an empty slogan.
Mariana Mazzucato
is a professor at
University College
London, and author
of Mission Economy:
a Moonshot Guide to
Changing Capitalism
If taken seriously, it will mean redesigning
transfers, partnerships and contracts
between governments and corporations
– for public procurement, loans, grants
and bailouts – so that the common good
is designed into them from the start and
that the state captures its fair share of
the value created. This will require a new
social contract, so that the “deal” in the
Green Deal is as ambitious as the “green”.
Support to traditionally heavily carbon-
emitting sectors such as steel and cement,
for example, will be made conditional on
those sectors reducing their material
content – stimulating a wave of green
innovation. Carbon will be taxed and
companies forced to report the rising
price of carbon in business plans so
that investors can judge the seriousness
of commitments to climate action.
Incentives will be offered for companies to
incorporate ambitious environmental
targets into their business models.
Similar interventions will be made in
healthcare, on the back of lessons learnt
from the Covid-19 pandemic. Public
investments in health innovation will
become conditional both on the avail-
ability and affordability of vaccines and
other drugs to reflect taxpayer contri-
butions to their development, and on the
much-needed global co-operation that
is required to vaccinate the entire world.
Meanwhile, legislation on intellectual
property rights will ensure that patents
are not abused for rent-seeking by the
very companies that benefit from billions
in public research funding. Patents will be
much more narrow than they are now and
easier to license, while patent pools will
help foster collective intelligence.
There are tentative signs that the old,
neoliberal form of capitalism is dying and
a new form is struggling to be born. US
president Joe Biden is already backing
plans to waive big pharma’s intellectual
property rights to a global vaccine, for
example. In 2022, if governments are to
live up to their grand goals to “build back
better”, we will see the birth of a new
social contract – one which puts purpose
at the centre of public-private partner-
ships, so that investment decisions are not
directed by private profit but are guided
by co-investment of both public and
private actors towards the common good.

F R INGE G OE S M A IN S T R E A M
EVER MORE EXTREMIST
CULTS WILL RISE
Driven by continuing uncertainty, the appeal of
radicalised thinking will be stronger than ever
By Maria Konnikova
The world was supposed to breathe a
collective sigh of relief in 2021 – at least when
it came to extremist, radicalised thinking.
Donald Trump was out of office. QAnon,
that cult-like movement operating under
the belief that a secret paedophile cabal
runs the world, was losing steam. Vaccines
were going to bring an end to the pandemic.
But far from seeing their demise, 2022 will
bring an increase in cultism and extremist
movements – and QAnon will prove to have
been the first baby step, rather than the
culmination, of the rising appeal of extreme
fringe organisations and sectarian politics.
The growth of increasingly radical fringe
beliefs will be fuelled by a rising distrust in
authority and expertise. This scepticism isn’t
new – we have been primed by “fake news”
headlines for a number of years. Next year,
though, a potent ingredient will be added to
the mix: the exhausting, continuing uncer-
tainty surrounding the Covid pandemic.
Historically, cults have flourished in times
of flux, when behavioural norms shift and
stability is elusive. If anything characterises
2021, it has been the sense of constant
displacement that has been engendered
by a novel disease. We have all experienced
endlessly changing official narratives and
communication strategies about Covid-19.
We have also seen death tolls continue to rise
and social institutions break under the strain.
This will resume in 2022, despite our hopes
the pandemic would be in the past. Even
the least extremist-minded of individuals
will be hard pushed to keep their sanity.
Added to that instability is the sense of
isolation we have all experienced in 2021, and
extremism feeds on this kind of exclusion
and loneliness. We have already seen people
this year who have been denied social
Maria Konnikova
is a New York Times
bestselling author.
Her most recent book
is The Biggest Bluff
POLITIC S 079
contact because of lockdowns and have
turned instead to the most improbable of
alliances, looking for groups that will validate
and channel their anger and frustration.
This will continue to be the case. It’s
difficult for the human mind to deal with
uncertainty during the best of times. We
crave certainty and hard numbers – not
evolving knowledge and statistical caveats.
And this is far from the best of times. “They
are lying to us” is the battle cry of conspiracy
theorists. In 2022, this will grow in volume
and lead to an explosion of extremist activity.
Already, we are seeing the nascent roots
of what 2022 will look like – in the coalescing
and increasingly radical voices of the
anti-vaccine community, in the anti-mask
protests we are seeing across the world
and in the labelling of governments such
as Australia’s as “fascist” for subjecting their
citizens to continued lockdowns. These are
the seeds for an extremism that will be sticky,
lasting and difficult to uproot – tied, as it has
become, to core personal identity.
Cult-like extremist movements appear to
provide an antidote to the potent mixture
of isolation, uncertainty, changing narra-
tives and fear we have experienced this
year by offering a skewed form of safety,
stability, certainty and a cohort of people
who are just like us, who believe us and who
believe in us. As the activist David Sullivan
pointed out – a man who devoted his life to
infiltrating cults in order to extricate loved
ones from their grip – no one ever joins a
cult: they join a community of people who
see them. In 2022, this appeal of cults will
grow and the ones that arise next year will
make QAnon seem like the good old days.
 NO -L IMI T N AT ION S

DIGITAL STATES
WILL EMERGE
Being a citizen of somewhere won’t
depend on your physical location

In 2022, we will build on the virtual existence many By Bernice Lee and and countries, secure work and residency
of us have been living during the pandemic and enter Ivan Mortimer-Schutts benefits for “citizens”, and set terms of trade.
a world where digital “countries” exist alongside nation Traditional states will have to grapple with
states. We will also need to demolish many of the increased tensions between those who are
barriers that still hinder a truly global digital existence. able to take advantage of digital citizenships
Digital has reduced the effect of national borders on and those who cannot, even as an eroding
many aspects of our lives. Transcontinental meetings tax base gives them fewer tools to do so.
on Zoom, international e-commerce and the ability to Tackling the disparity between a physically
stream media from virtually any jurisdiction show how entrenched nation state and the reality of
outdated much physical nation-state bureaucracy is. the digitally integrated world will become a
States hold the keys to many of the tools that facil- Bernice Lee Ivan Mortimer- priority for governments and they will have
itate economic life: governments establish and confirm is research Schutts is a senior little choice but to grasp the nettle. Next
legal identities, keep records of property ownership, director - financial specialist year we will enter a world in which global
set employment rights, define what constitutes legal futures at at the World Bank citizens will be able to make their own
tender and approve product standards, for example. Chatham House (writing here in his choices rather than depend on a local set of
Now that we travel further and faster in the virtual in London personal capacity) rules governed by where they physically live.
world, the limits of these tools are apparent. In 2022,
cracks will appear in the monopoly states have in the
business of governance. The pick-and-mix citizenship
benefits that are currently enjoyed only by high-net-
worth individuals and offshore companies will become
available to the mass affluent. A new breed of technol-
ogy-enabled firms will create a kind of “digital state”,
which gives its “citizens” rights, tools and the services
needed to work, live and consume more flexibly where
they want, in the digital as well as the physical world.
Members of these new virtual states, operated by
private companies, will be able to set up legal entities
for themselves in one country, reside in another and
pay themselves a salary in a third. “Governments” of
these states will create digital versions of the creden-
tials people need to prove their identity, property
rights, vaccination status or residency in a new online
world. In turn, they will create new market spaces
that their citizens can “visit” to access digital goods
and services that are not licensed or approved in
the physical space in which they reside. These will be
the new offshore, virtual free ports of the digital age.
Drawing lessons from semi-corporate states, such
as the UK territories, these digital states will be set up
not by existing tech companies, but by new entities
backed by private equity and sovereign investors with
the power to negotiate contracts with corporates

E C ONOMIC R E F OR M
WE WILL FACE LOW
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Tougher times are ahead for all, if we
don’t help the developing world recover
By Dambisa Moyo
Covid-19 has demonstrated that we
need to confront deep flaws in the global
economic system. But, without strong
economic growth, the world will struggle to
emerge from the pandemic, let alone reform
the global economy in ways that are better
for all. In 2022, global economic growth will
stall, with expansion in many developed and
developing economies falling short of the key
threshold of three per cent that is needed
to double per capita income in a generation.
Next year, rebooting global economic
growth will also be difficult, as large regions
of the world remain unvaccinated and global
trade and investment remain disrupted.
To further complicate matters, the tools
that governments have traditionally used
to jump-start recovery have already been
used extensively, and policy’s ability to drive growth
is reaching its limits. Interest rates have been stuck at
historically low levels in the US and UK, and at negative
interest rates in Europe and Japan. Many countries
are heavily indebted. In 2020, the debt-to-GDP
ratio in the US and the UK was over 100 per cent.
These rising rates of national debt are likely to
constrain public spending and governments’ ability to
deliver public goods such as education, healthcare,
infrastructure and national security, further reducing
the possibility for meaningful economic growth.
Even before the pandemic, factors were already
impeding economic growth. In 2022, these will continue:
the proliferation of automation and technological
advancements, which may lead to mass unemployment;
demographic shifts, including rapid population
growth; climate change; and worsening inequality.
The arrival of the global pandemic has intensified
many of these concerns, complicating governments’
abilities to drive economic growth in an equitable and
sustainable way. Unequal vaccination rates across the
Dambisa Moyo is a global
economist and author of Edge
of Chaos. She is also a member
of the board of Condé Nast,
the publisher of WIRED
world – largely between the developed and devel-
oping world – further entrench inequality and delay
economic recovery. In Africa, which is home to almost
20 per cent of the world’s population, vaccination
rates are hovering around one per cent. It is likely that
people in many parts of the emerging world will remain
largely unvaccinated throughout 2022, heightening
their exposure to new and more infectious variants.
Given the integrated nature of the world economy,
the fact that, next year, emerging economies will still
not experience the economic rebound already seen
in many developed regions in 2021 means that global
growth will remain low and slow. Many developed
economies have enjoyed a reboot built on the back of
mass vaccination and government stimulus packages.
However, this recovery will not be sustainable without
emerging economies recovering, too. Developed
countries cannot maintain their economic standing
if they can’t sell goods and services abroad.
Next year, we will see even more clearly how
intertwined the fate of the global economy is, and
realise that any hope of a global economic recovery
cannot be achieved as long as developed and
developing countries remain on two different tracks.
 INC L U SI V E S O C IE T Y
AUTISTIC PEOPLE
WILL CLAIM THEIR
HUMAN RIGHTS
Greater understanding of neurodiversity
will drive positive changes in legislation
By Simon Baron-Cohen
The human rights of autistic people have typically
long been denied across the world. Next year this
will change as governments and society at large
adopt the powerful idea of neurodiversity.
Autistic people are denied at least five rights
High hopes for retail that are enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human
New Mexico will launch Rights. First, the right to dignity. According to the
a regulated and legal National Autistic Society, half of autistic adults in
market for marijuana Britain report they have been abused by someone
from April 1, 2022, they thought was a friend. A quarter of autistic
becoming the 17th US adults have also had money stolen from them by
state to allow cannabis someone they consider to be a friend.
retail. Marijuana- Second, the right to education. Statistics show
based products sold one in five autistic children in the UK have been
in specially licensed excluded from school. And of the other 80 per
stores will have a cent of autistic children who have stayed in school,
12 per cent excise tax in half of them report having been bullied.
addition to state taxes. Third, the right to equal access to public
Therapeutic marijuana services. One in three autistic adults experience
for medical purposes severe mental ill health because of lack of support.
had already been legal In our clinic for adults seeking a diagnosis of autism
in the state since for example, two thirds report that they have felt
2007, while possession suicidal and one third have attempted suicide.
and personal use for In many areas of the UK, the waiting time for a
over-21s were made diagnosis can be up to twelve months or longer.
legal in June 2021. Fourth, the right to work and employment.
Public consumption Only 15 per cent of autistic adults in the UK are in
remains outlawed, full-time employment, despite many having good
but the new bill allows intelligence and even talents. Unemployment is a
those with previous well-known risk factor for depression.
marijuana-related Fifth, the right to protection from discrimination,
convictions to expunge the right to a cultural life and to rest and leisure.
their records. SV Many autistic people have been asked to leave a
supermarket or a cinema, because of their different
behaviour. In addition, half of autistic adults in
the UK report feeling lonely, while a third of them
do not leave the house most days and two thirds
of them feel depressed because of loneliness.
One in four autistic adults have no friends at all.
Finally, the right to protection of the law. One
in five young autistic people in the UK have been
stopped and questioned by the police, and five
per cent have been arrested. Two thirds of police
officers report they have received no training in
how to interview an autistic person.
Next year, politicians will start to wake up to
this injustice and call for measures to guarantee
human rights for autistic people, spurred on by
an increased understanding of autism and loud
calls for the protection of autistic people’s rights.
Legislative changes such as this are in part
the result of a greater awareness and adoption
of the idea of “neurodiversity” among humans,
which acknowledges that human minds and brains
are not all the same and that diversity should be
celebrated. Next year we will increasingly view
autism through this lens, which is strikingly different
to the standard medical model of the condition.
A mark of a civilised society is how we make
“reasonable adjustments” for people with disabilities,
to minimise their disabilities and to promote social
inclusion. In 2022, more voices will be calling for
autistic people’s human rights to be met so they are
able to engage fully in a genuinely inclusive society.
Simon Baron-Cohen
is professor of psychology
and psychiatry at Cambridge
University and director of
its Autism Research Centre
In 2022 we will still be feeling the effects of the Covid-19
pandemic. A great many of us have been counting numbers directly
tied to the virus – such as how many people have been vaccinated,
infected, hospitalised, are on ventilators or have died. However,
we have also taken our eyes off the indirect effects of the virus –
and of the measures we have taken to prevent infections – on our
most vulnerable citizens: children, adolescents and women. Next
year we will have to turn our attention to this “shadow pandemic”
if we are to have any hope of returning the world to normality.
While women, children and adolescents are no more likely than
others to get ill or die from coronavirus, they have dispropor-
tionately experienced interruptions to many of the services they
rely on, due to lockdowns and the diversion of crucial resources.
Fewer than two in ten Covid-19 health-related activities
considered gender in any explicit way, according to the latest
Global Health 50/50 report, which was published in 2021. But we
know that, without acknowledging the possible impact of crises
on different genders, we can make very wrong choices, especially
for women, children and adolescents. This is because decision
makers, still most often men, tend to forget about the vulnerable.
The closing of schools during the pandemic, for example, has
caused an educational gap for many children and adolescents. Govern-
ments are working to keep education as open as possible, but many
have taken less notice of the fact that, for millions of children, the
school lunch was their only meal during the day. Many countries
GL OB A L HE A LT H
PO LITIC S 083
Kersti
Kaljulaid
is the
president
of Estonia
Even before the pandemic, our world was not on
track to achieve several Sustainable Development
Goals (set up in 2015 by the United Nations General
Assembly and intended to be achieved by the year
2030) regarding women and children. Lockdowns
and the reallocation of resources in 2020 and 2021
have worsened this situation and, combined with
other crises that are affecting the much of the
world – ongoing conflict, climate change, economic
slowdowns – they will lead to many more people,
including women and children, suffering from
ill-health, undernourishment and hunger.
As Covid-19 infection rates decrease thanks to
the successful roll-out and uptake of vaccines,
we will in 2022 turn our attention much more to

COVID’S OTHER this shadow pandemic and its impacts. It will not
be frowned upon to be able to talk loudly and
openly about the side effects of some of the policy

PANDEMIC HITS measures we introduced to deal with the virus.

The long-tail consequences of fighting the virus must be
mitigated – in education, women’s rights, climate and more
By Kersti Kaljulaid
We will see that we have no choice but to allocate
local and global resources, such as nutritious food
and continuous healthcare services, to those in
the greatest need. And we will all have to work
to prevent further damage to these vulnerable
groups and repair the damage done so far.

haven’t even begun to plan for or even think about how they might
reach those hungry children, when schools continue to be closed.
Next year, we will also see the lingering effects of a shadow
pandemic in non-Covid global healthcare. While hospital systems
continue to focus on Covid-19 vaccination and treatment, routine
immunisation for many diseases (most forgotten already in the
western world) and necessary access to maternal healthcare services
have been pushed aside. As a consequence of the pandemic, for
example, 39 per cent of 124 countries surveyed reported a drop in
coverage of family planning services and 38 per cent reported drops
in the coverage of antenatal and postnatal maternal-health services.
 T R A N SPA R E NC Y

GOVERNMENTS
WILL GO (EVEN
MORE) DIGITAL
Developing countries will benefit
from the transparency of civic tech

By Oluseun Onigbinde

Many countries around the world have been forced by the Covid-19 pandemic to the technology to manage land registra-
automate government services and reduce physical touchpoints to serve citizens. In 2022, tions and election processes, both of which
both developed and developing countries will build on this and use blockchain and AI to are currently susceptible to manipulation.
streamline government operations, reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks and optimise services. Governments will also start to use digital
The pandemic has made the power of data and technology to transform governance identity and smart recognition systems
clear. Next year, citizens will insist that governments expand this data-driven approach to predict crime and to use intelligent
to non-pandemic related activities and develop intuitive and user-friendly technology to analytics to resolve them. We will also see
provide transparent, decentralised and participatory systems that touch all areas of civic life. wider adoption of intelligent voice-response
The UK’s Build Back Better strategy, for example, explicitly plans to use “regulation to systems in the provision of basic services.
unlock technologies such as drones and autonomous vehicles [to] deliver sophisticated All of this will make governance more
policymaking that benefits citizens and the economy”. South Africa has this year seen the efficient, but the biggest benefit will come
rapid adoption of intelligent instant-messaging platforms such as GovChat and Grassroot from the deeper trust citizens have in their
to improve remote government-citizen engagements and meet increasing demands governments, as they see services being
for accountability. In 2022, other governments in Africa and elsewhere will follow suit. provided in a more secure, efficient and
For many countries, this will not be easy, and will require an audit of legacy infrastructure, predictable manner. There are many
the expansion of cloud-computing facilities, the retraining of civil servants and a new challenges to overcome before countries
culture that prioritises accountability and responsibility. It will mean governments having can become truly digital and transparent.
to recruit data scientists and AI and cloud-computing experts to help policy leaders In 2022, though, all governments will see
realise the benefits that data-led government can bring. It will also need a new set of that digitisation is not only possible but
norms in the way government is done, including clarity on the ethical use of technology also essential for their citizens to thrive.
in a way that does not create bias or intrude on citizens’ privacy.
One way developing countries can move in this direction will
be to adopt technologies already used in the developed world.
AI and machine learning are already used in many areas of civic
and commercial life and these are transferable technologies.
Countries with weak institutions, for example, will be able to
use algorithms developed by the financial-services industry
to fight public-sector corruption by spotting suspect patterns.
Blockchain will replace inefficient centralised systems that
are subject to breaches with more secure platforms that enable
decentralised registers. Estonia has led use of blockchain in its
healthcare, property, business and judicial registries. In 2022,
other countries in the developed and developing world will use

Oluseun Onigbinde
is co-founder and
director of BudgIT,
a civic-tech startup,
based in Lagos
 B R I T C OIN OR B U S T POLITI CS 085

LONDON WILL
LOSE THE
CBDC RACE
Thinking only about technology
will put Britcoin at a disadvantage

By Zurab Ashvil

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

projects globally are advancing in full
force. CBDCs are a centrally issued and
regulated form of digital currency. Nations
see them as a way to curb the use of
unregulated and decentralised crypto-
currencies, and a means to better control
criminal activity such as money laundering.
2022 will see further progress made by
China, a leading player in CBDCs, as well as
secondary jurisdictions such as Sweden and
the Bahamas, which have CBDC projects in
advanced stages of development and trials.
In London, there is talk of a GBP CBDC,
playfully named “Britcoin”. However, unless
the UK Government changes the way it is
approaching the issue, it is unlikely that
Britcoin will be the success it is hoping for.
One reason for this is that, so far, the
Government and the Bank of England
(BoE) have almost exclusively focused on
the technology that would support a CBDC.
In April this year, the BoE announced the
creation of a CBDC taskforce, prioritising
design and potential use cases. Alongside,
it has launched a CBDC sandbox, which
several companies, such as my own, L3COS,
and R3 are using to develop technology
that would underpin the CBDC.
While this is all welcome progress, this
focus on technology alone will seriously
hinder the UK’s race towards a functioning
digital economy in 2022. If two other pillars
that are crucial to a successful CBDC
launch – infrastructure and legislation
– aren’t addressed soon, this high-tech
CBDC will be doomed to redundancy.
That proper infrastructure and legis-
lation aren’t even being considered
became clear when the UK’s Chancellor
of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, spoke
about the Government’s supporting
“innovation and technology” to create an
“innovative payments landscape”. As The
WIRED World went to press, he had yet
to mention anything about robust digital
legislation, such as digital governance
and privacy, which are essential for any
digital economy-related project to be
successful. Additionally, he has made
clear that Britcoin will not replace cash
– instead, both a CBDC and fiat currency
will be in circulation at the same time.
As happened with Brexit, we are likely to
have a transition period to migrate cash
to CBCD, eventually removing the risks
associated with cash. The UK is hell-bent
on creating the most secure, efficient
Zurab Ashvil
is chief
executive
and founder
of L3COS
and technologically advanced CBDC in
the world, without much thought behind
how it will be integrated into every level of
society – but that interoperability is key.
The lack of planning around infra-
structure will also make enemies of the
commercial banks. While commercial banks
in China are being used to distribute the
e-Yuan and form an integral part of its infra-
structure, there has been little talk so far
about the role of commercial banks in the
UK’s new digital economy – assuming of
course there is one. A UK CBDC is a threat
to the banks’ existence, so they will likely
oppose the idea both with lobbying and
verbal protest. In reality, though, there is
nothing they can do. The commercial bank
lobby in the UK is frail compared to the US
and they would also need to drastically
change their business models if they wanted
to be a part of the CBDC infrastructure.
A UK CBDC is planned, but the lack of a
holistic approach by the government and
the BoE will make it either irrelevant, or
arriving far later than in the rest of the world.
10-12 BURLINGTON GARDENS, LONDON W1S 3EY
149 SLOANE STREET, LONDON SW1X 9BZ
+44 (0) 20 7493 8939

PICKETT.CO.UK
 S ECTIO N 7 GEAR 087

EDITED BY

Jeremy White

GEAR

ILLUSTR ATION

Matthew Green
 E L E C T R IC R IDE S

BRIGHT
SPARKS
Clever electrified takes on conventional means of transport will take us into
2022 and beyond in comfort, speed and style – and with a clean conscience

By Jeremy White
 G EAR 089

AIRBUS CITYAIRBUS NEXTGEN

This fully electric, four-seat aircraft features six propellers on wing-mounted booms, plus a further
two fixed-tilt propellers on its V-shaped tail for cruising flight. It has a projected flight range of 80km
and cruise speed of 120kph and is meant for urban hops rather than long-distance travel. Being
a full EV, noise levels are expected to be below 65dB during flight and under 70dB during landing. Airbus
will work with partner cities in 2022 to ensure suitable operating environments are in place, with a
first flight in 2023 and certification by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency in 2025. airbus.com
 E L E C T R IC R IDE S

DAVINCI DYNAMICS DC100

Available July 2022, this all-electric café
racer has a peak power of 100kW and
torque of 850Nm, while the battery can
go from flat to full in 30 minutes. Your
smartphone isn’t just the ignition key –
it slots into a mount and functions as your
dash display, showing speed, GPS, power
and bike status. global.davincimotor.com

CANOO ELECTRIC
LIFESTYLE VAN
Canoo’s electric microbus/
delivery van will be available
to buy in 2022 from $34,750,
according to the Los Angeles-
based electric-vehicle
startup. $100 pre-orders for
the “lifestyle” option have
opened, while a pickup truck
and delivery van are due to
appear in the wild in 2023.
The lifestyle van will come in
four flavours: delivery, base,
premium and adventure. The
top-of-the-line adventure
model has increased ground
clearance, a 400km range,
5.3 cubic metres of interior
volume and up to 350
horsepower, not to mention
a roof-rack and enticingly
unspecified “adventure
accessories”. canoo.com
GEAR 091
TESLA MODEL Y
A delayed arrival now sees
the fourth car in Tesla’s
line-up coming in early 2022.
The £43,000 Model Y mid-
size SUV has an impressive
500km range on the top-spec
models, all-wheel drive and
room for up to seven with an
optional third row of seats.
The Performance version
(around £60,000), will have a
thumping 449bhp that should
see the car go from 0-100kph
in 3.5 seconds, reaching a top
speed of 240kph. Tesla also
claims that plugging it into
one of its Superchargers will
inject power for up to 270km
of range in just 15 minutes,
while the optimistically-titled
but still impressive “Full Self-
Driving” capability is, of course,
included as standard. tesla.com

HYUNDAI IONIQ 6
Largely based on the stylish
lines of Hyundai’s gorgeous
Prophecy concept EV, we
have high hopes for the Ioniq
6, coming in 2022. While it’ll
lose some of its more striking
design flourishes on the road
from fantasy to non-fiction –
there’ll be wing mirrors rather
than rear-view cameras, a
slightly higher roof-line and
almost certainly a steering
wheel instead of joysticks –
it makes up for it with details
such as those slick propeller-
shaped rims, which cool the
brakes by sucking in air as
they spin. You can expect
a range of approximately
480km, with a battery capacity
up to 100kWh, as well as
compatibility with 150kW
fast-chargers. hyundai.co.uk
E L E C T R IC R IDE S
UNAGI MODEL ELEVEN
E-SCOOTER
Unagi says its Yves Béhar-
designed, carbon fibre,
dual-motor electric scooter
will be the first to feature
ADAS – “advanced driver-
assistance systems”. This
promises to keep riders safe
via “AI-enabled sensors” that
detect obstructions – the
scooter will supposedly be
able to tell the difference
between a stop-light, a stop
sign, a person, a car or an
inanimate object. Coming
in Q3 2022, it will also be
the first scooter to feature
Google-enabled turn-by-turn
navigation (via audio, so you
don’t take your eyes off the
road, of course). Pre-order for
$2,860 with ADAS, or $2,440
without. unagiscooters.com
 GEA R 093

VANMOOF V
Amsterdam’s VanMoof has been bringing tech-startup innovation to the bike industry for more than
20 years, and the VanMoof V is its fastest e-bike to date – so fast, in fact, that it’s decided to label
it a “hyperbike”. Featuring dual motors, traction control, front and rear suspension, oversized rubber
tyres and a completely new frame geometry (this is VanMoof after all), the £3,498 V will propel riders
at up to 50kph – putting it squarely in competition with petrol and e-mopeds. The much-loved Turbo
button still features, as does the electronic keyless locking and Theft Defence option. vanmoof.com
 SECTI O N 8 BUSIN ES S 095

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Sonali De Rycker
Yin Yin Lü
Fanny Moizant
Andrew Warren
Jacky Wright
Scott Belsky
David Fischer
Alex Rinke
David Birch
Brian Elliott

BUSINESS

ILLUSTR ATION

Nick D Burton
The pandemic has forced many businesses to B USINESS 097
change the way they serve their customers. At the
same time, customer expectations have also grown,
and these positive transformations will last for some
time. By next year, they will be joined by an upending
of the way businesses help their customers with
money. Thanks to what is known as “embedded
finance”, 2022 will be the year that any organi-
sation can become a financial-services company.
To achieve this, firms will seek to provide their
customers with banking and financial capabil-
ities, including the typical bank offerings such
as online payments, investment products, bank
accounts, insurance and loans. We know of the big
technology companies’ moves into this area, but in E MB E DDE D SE R V IC E S
2022, that capability will be extended to all sectors.
Big breakthroughs will take place in Europe, an
area that has long been a hotspot for API-based
innovation in the financial services. This is mainly
due to its multi-currency banking, cross-border
trade regulations and open-banking policy.
OUR FINANCES
Neobanks have already altered what people expect
from finance-related products and services, and
the infrastructure and behaviours for those fully
WON’T BE
fledged embedded-finance offerings to succeed
are now in place. One German study published
this year by Solarisbank showed that 61 per cent
RUN BY BANKS
of respondents signalled their willingness to use
financial products from brands such as Lidl and APIs allow almost any company to offer financial services.
IKEA. This readiness will now extend to other In 2022, many non-banking brands will enter this sector
providers and platforms with which customers
– both consumers and businesses – have built a By Sonali de Rycker
trusted relationship. Small- and medium-sized
businesses (SMBs), which represent more than 50
per cent of Europe’s GDP and have been tradi-
tionally underserved, will benefit the most. Not as well as “buy now, pay later” programmes run
only do SMBs have the opportunity to become by companies such as Klarna. These will be more
financial-services providers, but embedded- broadly adopted by brands in the near future. We will
finance offerings will enable them to gain access also see a rise of other offerings, such as embedded
to more financial services themselves. insurance, which has already been rolled out by
Embedded finance is an elegant way to companies such as Tesla. The company is now able Sonali
enhance the customer experience, strengthen to offer the owners of its vehicles savings of up to De Rycker
loyalty, increase conversion and drive up margins. 30 per cent on car insurance because of the wealth is a partner
Everyday financial services, such as a short-term of data it has about them, which can be used for at Accel
loan, a debit/credit card or an insurance product more efficient pricing and underwriting decisions.
– previously seen as the domain of regulated There will also be an impact on the world of B2B
financial-services providers – are now at many commerce, where the complexity around escrow,
brands’ fingertips via APIs. There is also a huge invoice financing, payments and foreign exchange
opportunity for further growth – according create significant barriers to online adoption.
to Juniper Research, the value of the embedded- With most of these offerings now available via
finance market will exceed $138 billion (£100 billion) APIs, companies – whether marketplaces or SaaS
by 2026, up from just $43 billion in 2021. platforms – are offering increasing functionality to
With embedded finance, everything is available their customers, who are keen to have a simple and
in one place and customers receive a frictionless comprehensive solution to their financial needs.
purchasing experience. We are already familiar with The opportunity is clear. In 2022, financial services
embedded payments thanks to apps such as Uber, will no longer be the exclusive domain of the banks.
09 8 B U SI NESS
Unlike haiku and Stephen King novels,
financial regulation isn’t quick or easy
reading. To take one example, chapter 1 of
title 12 of the US Code of Federal Regula-
tions is 1,114 pages long and contains more
than 600,000 words. If you had a reading
rate of 300 words per minute, it would
take in excess of 33 hours to finish. And
that’s just chapter one. There are 18
chapters in title 12, and 50 titles in total.
Length and jargon make compliance
complex, but the volume and speed of
regulatory change since the 2008 financial
crisis has taken that complexity to a dizzying
new level. Regulation isn’t easy reading –
but it is nevertheless essential reading.
And this is where regtechs come in.
Regtech firms use AI to help financial
institutions keep up with regulations
and monitor client activity for regulatory
violations. Up until now, machine
learning and natural language processing
techniques have been employed to
organise, classify and extract require-
ments from regulatory documents.
In 2022, machine reading of these texts
will start to become machine under-
standing. Regtechs will not only know
which directives focus on a particular
topic, but also how that topic is evolving
across jurisdictions. And they will be able
to identify which regulations receive the
most attention. All of this will enable smart
predictions about regulatory change.
Three key factors have created this
opportunity in regtech AI. The first is data
availability and quality. For the past decade,
native digital versions of many regula-
tions have been produced and enriched.
R E G UL AT ION S R E OR G A NI SE D
REGTECH WILL
START THINKING
FOR ITSELF
AI will help businesses cope with
complex financial compliance
By Yin Yin Lü
Yin Yin Lü
is the global
head of product,
RegBrain
at CUBE
Mass digitisation has allowed regulatory texts –
and their metadata – to be structured at scale.
The second factor is market readiness and
subsequent product maturity. In recent years,
hesitancy around AI-based solutions for regulatory
management has transformed into a huge appetite
for more intelligent regtech tools. This has led to
regtech software evolving into multifunctional,
highly customisable, API-connected platforms.
The third factor is the technology, which is
broadly represented by semantic AI.
Regtech AI draws on vast volumes of
regulatory and user data – the latter
including comments, annotations and
“implicit feedback”, which is commu-
nicated through the usage of a system.
The combination of such data with big
advances in deep transformer-based
models such as BERT, GPT-3 and Wu Dao
2.0 is the key to machine understanding.
This synergy of well-defined regulatory
datasets enriched by human annotations,
market readiness and continuing advances
in deep-learning models means that next
year we will reach a “RegNet” moment.
Just as ImageNet, by creating an annotated
visual database for use in object-recog-
nition research led to huge leaps in AI’s
understanding of images, RegNet will
unleash hitherto unparalleled advances
in AI’s understanding of regulation.
The overall effect of RegNet will be
that, as machines reach a critical mass
of regulatory knowledge learned from
humans, humans will begin to learn from
machines. Legal, risk and compliance
experts will increasingly rely on machines
to inform their regulatory understanding.
They will quickly identify not only obliga-
tions, but also macro-level trends,
which will lead to better proactivity.
And, ultimately, we will all benefit. The
endgame of compliance is to keep the
global economy stable so that we can
focus on issues such as climate change.
As it so happens, environmental, social
and corporate governance is a massive
impending area of regulation. But we don’t
need regulatory intelligence to tell us that.
In 2022, every fashion brand will have
to offer a 360° resale option to their
clients. This means offering a take-back
scheme as well as a pre-loved section on
their websites and in-store. The reason:
they are now dealing with a different type
of customer with new demands.
Consumers now want to consume
less and make better choices when they
purchase items. According to the Boston
S U S TA IN A B L E S T Y L E
RESALE WILL BE
ANYTHING BUT
A PASSING TREND
The fashion industry will fully embrace the
second-hand market in a bid to stay relevant
By Fanny Moizant
Consulting Group, second-hand clothes
are projected to make up 27 per cent of
customers’ wardrobes by 2023, while 70
per cent admitted thinking about taking
better care of the products they purchase
thanks to the resale market. This new way
of shopping is more conscious of the
environment and human rights, but at the
same time, consumers will still want to
own unique and attractive apparel.
The fashion industry puts the planet
under immense pressure. Clothing
consumption is set to rise by 63 per cent
between now and 2030, according to
Pulse Report, which monitors sustain-
ability in fashion. The Ellen MacArthur
Foundation (EMF) has also found that we
wear our clothes 40 per cent less than ten
years ago. The new customer understands
this and is embracing resale instead. Our
own research has shown that buying
a handbag second-hand rather than
opting for new can reduce its environ-
mental impact by up to 91 per cent.
According to the EMF, increasing an item’s
lifetime by just nine months decreases its
environmental impact by 30-40 per cent.
In addition, a greater awareness of
employment conditions in some garment
factories has made consumers even more
averse to cheap, wear-once fashion.
This shift to sustainable living will
continue to grow. It will benefit all stake-
holders, providing loyalty and a new acqui-
sition channel for brands, as well as a
more affordable, value-based option for
customers. It also provides brands with a
powerful opportunity to boost their image
through strong sustainability credentials.
Plus, it makes economic sense. After the
lockdowns of 2020-21, customers are
starting to spend money on travel and going
out again, and this will present a financial
challenge to the first-hand fashion market.
Fanny Moizant
is president
and co-founder
of Vestiaire
Collective
Up to now, brands have been aware of
their customers’ drive towards sustaina-
bility, but they are only beginning to under-
stand that this represents a fundamental
change in the way people want to shop.
Luxury brands in particular have a
powerful opportunity to associate resale
with the quality of their pieces, which
are made to stand the test of time. The
high-quality materials and detailed
workmanship that they trade on ensure
that items maintain good condition and
decent resale value season after season.
Offering a resale option to their customers
will soon become standard practise.
Resale today is a similar phenomenon
to e-commerce in the 1990s, which was
also underestimated to begin with. Today,
those companies that have embraced
e-commerce fully are thriving. Those
that did not are struggling or have already
disappeared. In 2022, we will see a similar
transformation of the sector as brands
and organisations that ignore the new
customer’s needs will slowly but surely
lose to their more perceptive competitors.
1 0 0 B U SI NESS F IN A NC I A L C R I SI S

BIG BANKS
WILL NEED
During the last decade, a popular
TO EVOLVE
The traditional banking industry will need to respond to incursions on
narrative has sprung up telling of the its turf from tech companies offering similar – and better – services
grave threat that fintech startups such
as Revolut, Monzo and Starling pose to By Andrew Warren
traditional major players in the banking
and financial-services sector. But there
has long been a more ominous threat to
traditional banks, in the form of Big Tech.
In 2022, this threat is set to materialise
as Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple
draw on their already overwhelming global
reach and resources – not to mention
their abundance of consumer data – to
diminish the banks’ monopoly power.
Two things play into Big Tech’s hands.
The first is the move towards a cashless
society. It will soon become the norm to
send money via smartphones to known
contacts without even leaving a messaging
app or logging into a bank account. Because
tech is driving and enabling these advances,
it will be the technology companies, rather
than the banks, that are likely to be best
placed to benefit, as the direct role of
financial organisations is reduced.
The second is the crucial role user
experience now plays in all facets of our
lives. This requires the use of real-time
data to capture and analyse insights and
tailor recommendations to individuals. It’s
a process that has long been central to
Big Tech’s operations, but requires major
upgrades among traditional banks. These
improvements are certainly being made
and there is renewed focus in the traditional
banking world on the integration of AI and
machine learning to enhance customer
experience. However, Big Tech has a signif-
icant head start when it comes to innovating
and using their vast swathes of data to
respond quickly to consumer trends, at scale.
Big Tech firms also often sweep up the
brightest and best in technology talent,
leaving many traditional banks struggling
to recruit for the roles needed to catch
up. This situation will be no different
next year as competition increases even
more. Big Tech firms were born agile and
ready to adapt. They are always thinking
years ahead, and the talent they have –
and are able to keep attracting – is key
to this. Without serious culture changes
internally, banks will soon find themselves
so far behind they might never recover.
If that isn’t enough to worry the tradi-
tional banking sector, the new “strong
customer authentication” (SCA) regulations
that came into force this year in the UK
will also play into the hands of technology
companies rather than traditional banks.
Combined with the continuing advance of
open banking, they will offer Big Tech an
opportunity to redefine how consumers
pay for things. Both Apple Pay and
Google Pay are SCA-compliant solutions,
making them straightforward options for
businesses taking online payments to
adopt. Similar regulations are appearing
elsewhere around the world and, again, it
is Big Tech that is best placed to benefit.
What may start as a payments war will
become more existential for banks. The
Big Tech companies already have global
customer bases and do not need banks’
infrastructure or capital, eliminating the
competitive edge the banks currently have
over the smaller fintechs. As consumers
increasingly favour the immediacy and
ease of tech-enabled smart payments,
both for goods, services and in-person
cash transfers, the need for banks’
centralised pots will reduce. The likes of
Amazon and Google also certainly have
the cash reserves to match them.
In 2022, the traditional banking industry
will be watching anxiously for technology
companies to make their next move.
The banks’ choice will be stark: whether
to ignore the threat – or to partner with it.
Andrew Warren
is head of banking
and financial
services UK&I,
Cognizant
P O W E R PA R T NE R SHIP S
TECH FIRMS
WILL STEP UP
The global challenges we face will
be tackled by collaborations across
technologies, sectors and companies
By Jacky Wright
The connected world that technology
has created has also made us all sharply
aware of the issues faced by the world. Often
in real time, we can, for example, see the
effects of famine, monitor the movement
of refugees and follow the changing data
points of temperatures across the globe.
This direct exposure has generated a
“macro awareness” in global society and
an increase in affinity and empathy. In 2022,
that connectivity will also be the way we find
solutions to many of the world’s problems.
Solving problems at scale will require
collaboration and ecosystems that are
multidisciplinary, cross-boundary and
inclusionary. Take climate change, for
example. Social media enables us to see
the real-time effects of extreme weather
patterns, increasing our awareness of
the issue. AI models, including those that
Microsoft is developing with research teams
and academia, are revealing the perilous pace
at which we are destroying our environment.
The combination of the two has led
to an unprecedented global call for action.
Next year, we will see more of these
partnerships coming together to solve the
numerous challenges facing the world.
To begin with, developed countries will
support developing countries by sharing
insight and technologies to help them
implement sustainable practices, such
as reducing deforestation. In the US, for
example, NCX is using aerial imagery and
AI to survey forests at a national scale,
transforming how conservationists and
landowners measure and monitor forests.
Similarly, BasinScout uses satellite data
and machine learning to rapidly assess
field-level agricultural practices and their
impact on water resources. This technology
is transferable and can help other countries
determine the effects of urbanisation and
climate change on sustainable land practices.
Collaborations such as these will also
create a shared responsibility for driving
Jacky Wright is
chief digital officer
at Microsoft. She
is writing here in her
personal capacity
economic growth. Industry and cross-
sector consortia and bodies will define
global standards to drive sustainable,
inclusive practices and shape and
influence public policy. Research institutes,
academia and technology companies will
continue to develop AI that is free from
bias, ensuring that innovations respect
the fundamental rights of all. Governments
will work to guarantee trust, security and
adherence to implemented practices.
Technology companies will be key
partners in this co-operation to solve global
problems, not only by developing innovative
and sustainable products and services, but
also by creating digital platforms to drive
social impact, such as ECOLAB3D, which
uses IoT technology to optimise complex
water and production systems. These will
lead to new business, political, economic
and social practices that will benefit the
future of our society. Embracing technology
as the equaliser, harmoniser and illuminator
of change will be integral to a tech company’s
social contract with society. In 2022, tech
will realise the huge potential it has to make
the world a better and more equal place.
 Destiny Wilson was always a maker, T HE C R E AT OR E C ONOM Y
fashioning wallets from duct tape as a kid
and designing the cover of her school
yearbook. Then, at 15, she started putting
her designs onto thrift-store sneakers. SHOPPING WILL GET
Three years later, Destiny, aka The Artvst,
is busy delivering custom designs for sneak- TRULY PERSONAL
erheads, from kicks with colours inspired by
old Nintendo games to a pair that reflected In an age of automation, custom design and
one customer’s obsession with Taco Bell. craftsmanship will be more valued than ever
Destiny’s designs are unique, but her
business isn’t. In 2022, a growing number By Scott Belsky
of artists will make a living crafting the
ultimate in personalised products – goods
whose unique decorations reflect both the
buyers’ interests and the artists’ aesthetics. consumers through services like Shopify, Etsy, Behance or
Three years ago, I wrote on Medium Society6. These artists are able to find their long-tail audience
about the rise of microbrands – tiny, design- through the algorithmically honed feeds of social networks such
centric companies that use social media to as TikTok and Instagram. What these artists offer is attractive to
target a narrow niche of people just like you. consumers who are growing sceptical of the labour practices,
Social currency This new trend is the logical extension of the environmental impact and commodified goods of big retailers.
Facebook has revealed microbrand – instead of buying products for The market for ultimate personalisation extends far beyond
plans to spend up people just like us, in 2022 we will increas- hand-painted shoes and, I believe, the physical world itself.
to $1 billion in 2022 ingly buy products designed just for us. Many people who buy a custom-designed pair of Air Jordans
in a campaign to For consumers, these customised goods will want to wear them not just on a night out, but in their
entice creators are what I think of as a “cultural flex” – a favourite game as well. So when they buy a physical good,
away from platforms statement about yourself across multiple they’ll also get a digital NFT version that is portable to any
such as TikTok and channels, which goes beyond just showing virtual space and proves that they are the owner.
onto Facebook and off the trappings of wealth. A custom- More of us will become invested in our virtual presence
Instagram. It will take designed shirt or bag doesn’t need to cost a within games and worlds and a metaverse powered by
the form of bonuses, lot, but it reflects your personality, style and augmented and virtual reality. How we look, what we wear
which Facebook will values. It also gives you a fun way to support and what we carry in these spaces will be something we both
pay to creators who artists whose work you respect, both create and curate. The art we use to craft our virtual selves will
have ads on IGTV through your commission and by exposing in many ways be the truest reflection of who we are, liberated
videos, or who reach that artist’s work to your network of friends. more than ever from physical and financial constraints.
milestones such as For artists, these goods are a great In 2022, what we choose, and who we choose to be, will
a certain number entry to the “creator economy”, the enable us to be a more creative and unique version of ourselves.
of views on Reels. growing economic engine that is fuelled
The Facebook and by individual creativity and craftsmanship.
Instagram apps will As artificial intelligence and machines take
feature a “dedicated over more jobs, people will succeed based
place for bonuses” on the uniquely human trait of creativity.
to make it easier to The growth of personalised goods is just
identify who is eligible one example of that shift in action.
for the scheme and Why will 2022 be a turning point for this
show creators how to trend? For one thing, creators increasingly
work towards unlocking have the power to skip huge platforms
the payments. SV such as Amazon and connect directly with

Scott Belsky is the founder

of Behance and the chief
product officer and
executive vice president of
Creative Cloud, Adobe

UNI V E R SE B UIL DING
LUX BRANDS WILL
TELL US STORIES
Selling a narrative will be just
as important as selling a product
By David Fischer
Besides producing many different By collaborating with traditionally
products, traditional luxur y fashion non-fashion-based brands, institutions
brands have mostly only been able to and culturally relevant people outside of
differentiate themselves through their the fashion sector, and by opening stores
choice of models, their creative team and in off-the-beaten-track markets and
their stores’ locations. Brands of the past working with local communities who have
have been limited to their swimlanes, no financial interest vested in the fashion
rarely branching beyond a product arena, forward-looking brands such as
or categor y specialisation. In 2022, Supreme and Colette have stretched
brands will follow the example set over their worlds to become exper ts in
the last five years by a new generation first selling a narrative, then selling a
of luxury brands that often originated physical good. These brand pioneers
in streetwear and which have gone have pivoted from being centred on their
on to push the boundaries of what product and moved towards a bigger
a brand encompasses – or rather, universe of storytelling, collaborations,
what their brand “universe” looks like. experiences, content and much more.
BUSINESS 103
In 2022, luxury brands will learn from
these successes and gain a clear under-
standing that selling products is simply a
means of engaging today’s global luxury
consumer, and not the end.
This year, we have seen the first signs
of this change rippling through the luxury-
fashion sector. In April, Gucci collabo-
rated with Balenciaga on an online festival
which highlighted emerging talent in
design, art, music and film. Jacquemus
has hosted a flower shop pop-up in
March. Aimé Leon Dore has been selling
vintage non-fashion products by other
brands. LVMH has announced that Louis
Vuitton’s artistic director, Virgil Abloh, is
to take on a bigger role within the group
and work directly with its wines and
spirits, beauty and fragrance, watches
and jewellery and special retail divisions.
In September this year, during New
York Fashion Week, Telfar announced the
launch of two television stations, devoid of
any “content”, that will act as a community
hub and shopping destination. Fans are
able to submit their own content to appear
on the channel, and QR codes will appear
at random with the chance to buy Telfar
bags. All of this was announced in lieu of
a runway show, another departure from
the traditional fashion-week moments.
This new approach to branding will
go beyond apparel. As luxury fashion
undergoes this big shift in universe-
building next year, the entire luxury
industry will follow suit. The sector will
start to build their brands around a specific
consumer, rather than a specific product.
David Fischer
is founder of
Highsnobiety
and the EIC
of TitelMedia
1 0 4 B U SI NESS
Processes underpin ever y thing a
company does, from product conception
to production, distribution and fulfilment.
By making them more efficient, we can
make the world more sustainable. But
many of these processes have been
developed in a piecemeal fashion, so they
are incredibly inefficient. One third of all
food produced globally, for example, is
lost or wasted every year, and 80 per cent
of that waste is caused by poorly executed
processes such as supply chain ineffi-
ciencies, late deliveries and inaccurate
planning. This food waste matters beyond
simple nutrition. According to the United
Nations Environment Programme, the
resources needed to produce the food
that then becomes lost or wasted has
a carbon footprint of about 3.3 billion
tonnes of CO 2, making food waste the
world’s third-biggest carbon emitter
behind China and the United States.
Many organisational processes, such
as customer relationship management,
S U S TA IN A B L E P L A NNING
BUSINESSES WILL
SAVE THE PLANET
BY STREAMLINING
Cutting inefficiencies won’t just boost the bottom
line – it’s good for the environment and for society
By Alex Rinke
enterprise resource planning and spread-
sheets that crunch data in real time, now
run in the cloud. Instead of becoming
more efficient, these fragmented systems
often don’t speak to one another, causing
massive blind spots that can have
far-reaching consequences. Imagine
you’re responsible for shipping life-saving
penicillin to South American hospitals,
and orders are late or incorrect 40 per
cent of the time. How much investi-
gation would be required to get to the
root cause of the problem, let alone fix
it? Companies’ technology stacks enable
them to analyse data and act on insights,
but the gap between uncovering an insight
and acting is usually too large.
This is particularly critical for indus-
tries with large supply chains. A report
produced this year by the World Economic
Forum shows that eight global supply-
chain inefficiencies account for more than
50 per cent of all carbon emissions, with
food alone representing about 25 per cent.
Alex Rinke
is the
co-founder
and co-CEO
of Celonis
In 2022, companies will see the
advantages to be gained by stream-
lining supply chains through better use
of data. Procurement will be a good place
to start. In 2022 companies will use data
to influence their suppliers to be more
sustainable. And they will extend that
use of data into every decision, using it,
for example, to look for corruption or
evidence of forced labour in supply chains.
As part of its sustainability strategy,
Lufthansa CityLine, which operates
flights out of Frankfurt and Munich, is
working with my startup to use continuous
analysis of its fuel-ordering process to
help improve decision-making and
reduce fuel consumption. EcoVadis,
which rates more than 75,000 companies
on its corporate social responsibility
and sustainable procurement policies,
has found that business sustainability
ratings average in the mid-40s out of
100, with procurement par ticularly
lagging behind. It is working with these
departments so they can influence their
suppliers to be more sustainable. Next
year, we will see this sort of environmental,
social and corporate governance data
natively available in every decision.
In 2022, companies will be increasingly
differentiated by how sustainable
they are. Many more of them will realise
that it is through streamlining their
processes that they can achieve greater
efficiency, greater sustainability and
emit less carbon into the atmosphere.
 T HE D ATA P U SHB A C K
WE WILL OPEN UP, NOT
BREAK UP, BIG TECH
In 2022, tech firms’ hoarding of customer data will
come to an end, and sharing will become the norm
By David Birch
Last year, the US House Judiciar y
Committee’s antitrust panel found that
Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook had
“monopoly power” in key business segments
and had “abused” their dominance in the
marketplace. In 2022 we will see what panel
member Ken Buck has predicted: that the
proposal to force platform companies
to separate their lines of business (ie, to
be broken up) is not the right way forward.
Breaking up Big Tech is an outdated
industrial-age response in the post-
industrial economy. Social media profiles
are not the new West Texas Intermediate
and Facebook is not the new Standard
Oil. It is a good thing to promote compe-
tition in the always-on world of today, and
focusing regulation on the refining and
distribution of a crucial economic resource
(that is, data) remains logical. However,
a better way forward is something along
the lines of what Viktor Mayer-Schön-
berger, professor of internet governance
and regulation at Oxford, and Thomas
Range, a long-standing technology writer,
call a “progressive data-sharing mandate”.
Data sharing is part of the US administra-
tion’s approach to promoting competition in
the consumer-finance sector. In July 2021,
President Biden signed an executive order
that mandated the portability of consumer
financial transaction data, paving the way
for truly open banking. In 2022, we will
realise that what holds true for banks and
credit-card companies also holds true for
social media, shopping and telecoms.
This “open everything” approach has
been pioneered in Australia, where open
banking is part of a wider approach to
consumer data rights. There is a strong
push within the country to prevent organ-
isations from taking banking data without
sharing their own data. If a social media
company, for example, wanted access to
an Australian’s banking data it would have
to become an “accredited data recipient”
and make its own data available.
US regulators might use this approach
to kill two birds with one stone: requiring
both Big Banking and Big Tech to provide
non-discriminator y API access to
customers’ own data. Why shouldn’t my
bank be able to check out my Amazon
history to find me some good deals?
Why shouldn’t my Novi wallet be able to
access my bank account? Why shouldn’t I
be able to grant a rival startup social media
network access to my Facebook graph?
This will make it easier for competitors to
emerge, re-energising incumbents and new
entrants, who will be able use previously
hoarded data to deliver new products.
Instead of returning to the 19th- and
20th-century antitrust remedies that
were used against the monopolies in
railways, steel and telecoms, In 2022 we
will realise how open banking provides
a useful 21st-century model for acting
against the monopoly power over data.
The way to deal with Big Tech will not be
to break them up, but to open them up.
David Birch is a
venture partner
at 1414 Ventures
OF F IC E INNO VAT ION BU SINES S 107

WE WILL MOVE
TO DIGITAL HQS
The traditional head office will make
way for flexible modes of working

By Brian Elliott

During the past year, we have learned

that flexible work does work, as millions of
people have moved their tools and modes
of employment from the office to the home.
A generation of change was delivered in a
matter of months, and there’s no going back.
But this transition is far from over. In
2022, we won’t keep “lifting and shifting” old
ways of working from the office to the home.
Instead, we will develop digital HQs, which
will improve productivity, foster innovation
and help increase the diversity of company
workforces. Indeed many companies will
only have digital headquarters.
These headquarters will require different
ways of working. A strong digital head office
doesn’t mean we’ll never see our colleagues
again, rather we’ll bring teams physically
together only when it make sense to do so.
We will see new roles to manage this
collaborative infrastructure and innovative
approaches to strengthening organisational digital infrastructure supported in-person ways of collaborating. In 2022 it will be the other way around.
culture. Executive leaders will spend time Finally, recruitment will increasingly concern itself with offering the flexibility people want.
with project teams to build camaraderie, but According to our research, conducted across more than 10,000 people in the US, the UK, France,
limit their own time in the office to ensure Germany, Japan and Australia, 93 per cent of knowledge workers want a flexible schedule and 76
that power and opportunities for promotion per cent want flexibility as to where they work. Digital headquarters will also improve the employee
don’t centralise and that people no longer mix of many companies. Companies that used to be based in cities such as London, San Francisco,
mistake presenteeism for performance. Tokyo or Munich will tap into broader talent pools in more places and swell the ranks of under-repre-
Most physical spaces will be flexible and sented minorities. Wealth will be distributed more equitably across locations and among populations.
shared for teamwork. It used to be that our New digital tools and platforms will eliminate the unproductive stream of back-to-back meetings
that most knowledge workers suffer from. The 9-5 work day has never worked for many, and its
boundaries have long been abused. In its place will be more asynchronous and distributed tasks
that provide flexibility for juggling work and the rest of life, and clearer ways for teams and people to
Brian Elliott avoid 24/7 burnout. Strong digital headquarters will recreate the fast, ambient and informal discus-
is vice sions people miss from the office while connecting employees, customers and partners who are
president, working flexibly across different projects and time zones. And they will lead to a greater transparency
Future Forum of information, keeping teams aligned and connected and increasing productivity and morale.
at Slack In 2022, we will see that we don’t simply have to shift days full of meetings into people’s homes,
but that we will be able to disrupt existing work patterns and transform our digital space to be the
place where work happens. As a result, it will be more flexible, inclusive, connected and productive.
Businesses that thrive in the next decade will be those that have embraced this bold reinvention.
 SECTION 9 C U LT U RE 109

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Robert Norton
Kwame Kwei-Armah
Danny Rimer
Yarden Yaroshevski
Bettina Korek

CULTURE

ILLUSTR ATION

Massimiliano Aurelio
1 1 0 C U LT U RE A R T E V OLV E S
NFTS WILL CHANGE
THE ART WORLD
Sales of digital collectibles set records in 2021, but even as the scene is cooling down, in
2022 many artists will explore bold new ways to blend the blockchain with creativity
By Robert Norton
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) turn anything into
something that can be digitally collected and traded,
from a meme to the source code of the World Wide
Web. In 2021, NFT art skyrocketed, with Beeple (aka
Mike Winkelmann) becoming the third-most valuable
living artist after David Hockney in terms of auction
prices, following his $69.3m (£50.2m) sale at Christie’s.
But the winner’s medal belongs to community
NFTs such as Cryptopunks, whose 10,000 algorith-
mically generated artworks surpassed $1bn (£725m)
in sales since they were first given away for free less
than five years ago. With collectors banking returns of
nearly one million per cent on their investments, it’s
no wonder artists, auction houses and even organ-
isations like the US National Basketball Association,
which owns digital clips of games, are getting involved.
In 2022, NFT art will move beyond the speculative
frenzy of its early days to more everyday double-
digit growth. With all the major auction houses
continuing to sell NFTs, there will be further ambitious
NFT drops such as Damien Hirst’s new project, “The
Currency”. Art will become gamified as new digital
tribes congregate under the guise of punks, apes,
penguins, cats and other modes of self-definition.
Expect to see artists respond to the seemingly
insatiable demand for archetypes and traits that are
attracting a new generation of digital collectors to
the metaverse – reminiscent of the anthropomor-
phised groups in AOL chatrooms in the early 1990s.
Collectors won’t care if a work is human-made
or a digital collectible generated by an algorithm, as
marketplaces double down on the lure of verifiable
digital scarcity and bold, new auction formats.
Regulators will also look to curb double standards
in physical and digital artwork sales. In Europe, any
dealer selling a physical work for more than €10,000
(£8,594) needs to adhere to strict anti-money-
laundering guidelines, but NFT sales are unregulated.
Artists will benefit from the flow of ongoing NFT
sales royalties. These persistent royalties, typically
ten per cent, will disrupt and weaken the position
of traditional dealers. Artists and collectors will be
bound together more closely than ever, with every
new sale generating instant income for its creator.
Efforts to extend artist royalties across marketplaces
via royalty registries and new contract standards
will be hampered by a lack of standards across the
main NFT marketplaces. But the promise of royalties
and the desire for blockchain records will result
in more physical artworks being traded as NFTs,
providing further transparency in the art market.
Transaction authenticity on any given blockchain
won’t, however, prevent fraudulent artist accounts
and buyers will value additional authentication from
verified identities to artist certification.
The promise of eternity will also present new
challenges, as marketplaces determine the best
way to ensure permanent accessibility of their artists’
digital works. IPFS, the Interplanetary File System
protocol, will remain the preferred way to do this,
but on-chain storage protocols such as Arweave will
gain ground in the race to ensure art lives forever.
Museums are well placed to contribute to digital
preservation, but will need to partner with technology
providers and move quickly to stay relevant.
New generations of wealth have historically desired
new forms of art, from the commercial to street level,
and in this sense the aesthetics of crypto art is no Robert Norton
different. However, the token mechanisms under- is CEO and co-founder
lying this form of expression will change the entire art of Verisart
market and rewrite our understanding of provenance.
“Everything you can imagine is real,” said Picasso.
With artists and engineers leading NFT innovation,
the art of the possible has never been greater.
 A R T T HE R A P Y
ART WILL FOCUS ON
OUR MENTAL HEALTH
After a year of collective trauma, the healing
will begin in 2022 as artists of all stripes
help us come to terms with our experiences
By Kwame Kwei-Armah
In 2022, the arts will be focused on
restoring our mental health. In the
past two years, the vaccine was not
the only thing to save our lives. During
the pandemic, an estimated 12 million
people signed up to one of the many
streaming services available. The enter-
tainment and distraction those platforms
provided assumed a crucial role in helping
Kwame Kwei-Armah
is artistic director of
the Young Vic theatre,
and an actor, director
and playwright
us to endure the challenging times.
Next year, ar t, stor y telling and the
narratives we use to make sense of our
world will all be key tools that will aid
our sense of recovery from this period.
I am seeing this in most of the work
I am being sent, many of which have
been written in the past 18 months. The
last thing that anyone is talking about in
the work that I am seeing is narratives
about viruses. Instead, what is at the
core of this work is either a cry for help
or, by contrast, an effor t of active
avoidance with a high quotient of joy.
All of this work will have a tangible
impact on our ever yday lives. The
pandemic, for example, has given us
an inherent fear of our fellow human
beings. The avoidance of touch and
unease around other people’s breath
have tested our emotional bandwidth in
almost unthinkable ways. This has been
amplified by a greater awareness of the
inequalities in our world, from insuffi-
cient medical infrastructure and paucity
of housing choices, to an ever-diminishing
support for the disabled community.
Next year, art will – either subtly or
directly – address this anxiety head
on. There will be more female leads,
more discussion about the struggle of the
transgender community, more narratives
from a Black and brown perspective, and
works about connection and intimacy.
On the basis that sunlight is the best
disinfectant, the simple fact that art
will be dealing with these topics will
be essential to the act of healing.
In 2022, museums, galleries and theatres
– including the Young Vic, where I work as
artistic director – will be putting on exhibi-
tions and shows whose primary intention is
to boost our mental health. In the US, the
Smithsonian has already begun this process.
It is currently collating a giant project called
“Healing a Nation”, which will draw on the
work of many artists, from all art forms, to
help people recover from the trauma of the
past two years. The museum explains that,
“at a time when people are fearful, it’s the
role of a museum to give comfort. At a time
of pain, museums can remind us of beauty.”
Next year we will see the power of art,
not just to entertain, but to make us whole
again as people. The art we consume will
be driven by, but not focus directly on,
our collective response to Covid. We
will see dramas about the fear of touch
and classics reinterpreted to reflect the
trauma of our time. We will connect with
storytelling about reparation and repair.
These will be the unifying themes of
the season. And, of course, there will
also be big, bold, joyous distractions.
What could be more healing than that?

The European Renaissance emerged
from the deadliest pandemic ever to
strike humanity, the bubonic plague. Next
year, as the world finds its feet after the
ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic, we
can expect to see a similar cultural flour-
ishing. From podcasts to music to art to
writing, a fresh generation of creators
will take centre stage, supported – and
funded – not by big commercial interests,
but by the collective enthusiasm (and
cash) of their fans. In 2022 we will see
the creation of a new social contract
between creators and their audience.
As patronage goes mainstream, the
concept of “fans”, “stans” and “followers”
– implying a passive consumption of
culture – will wither. Instead, audiences
will transform into dynamic “supporters”
and “patrons” of the artists they admire. In
exchange, readers, listeners and watchers
will expect more than just content. They will
want unfiltered engagement with creators
in the form of interactions with their daily
life and insights into the creative process.
In turn, the most successful artists will be
those who realise their role is as much
about cultivating and responding to a
community as it is about creation.
Last October, for example, the Portu-
guese-American musician RAC decided
to experiment with forging a more direct
connection to his audience, cutting out
middlemen such as record companies
and distributors. He created a crypto-
currency token – $RAC – which listeners
received based on their support, such as
past endorsement via Patreon or because
they had bought merchandise. $RAC can’t
be bought but only earned through loyalty,
A R T ’S L I V ING WA GE
PATRONAGE WILL
GO MAINSTREAM
An age-old way of funding artists and creators will become new again
By Danny Rimer
and, as a reward, it can be exchanged
for perks and exclusive access to RAC.
Similarly, the acclaimed writer Emily
Segal funded her upcoming novel Burn
Alpha – about a group of schoolgirls who
bust a sex-trafficking ring – by allowing
people to invest directly in future sales
of her book, which gave her the money
and time to write it. Part of her aim, she
said, was to take creation from “behind a
veil of secrecy, away from the community
that will ultimately enjoy the final product”.
Next year, more tools like these will
enable artists to monetise and distribute
their work. And, as they free artists from
relying on advertising – unlike “influencers”
Danny
Rimer is
a partner
at Index
Ventures
C U LT U RE 113
– they will lead to an appreciation that
creation can be both authentic and also
a legitimate way to earn a living.
The result of upending how artists are
paid will be a reality in which culture no
longer converges on a single peak, but
instead becomes a diverse landscape of
many hills, forests, ridges and valleys. That’s
something that’s long been the promise of
the “democratisation” of culture, beginning
with the tape deck and the camcorder.
Monetisation and community management
have long been the two elements missing
from onIine artists’ lives. Next year, these
crucial pieces will at last fall into place.
In some ways, the new creative class
that will emerge in 2022 shows how artistic
funding has come full circle: from individual
patrons, through to collective pools of
capital, back to being steered by individual
passions. It’s impossible to predict who will
become the new da Vinci – but rest assured,
they’re out there, and ready to usher in
a new, digitally driven artistic renaissance.
 C U S T OM C UR AT ION C U LT U RE 115

Most of us have a music, movie or video-
game library – possibly all three – but few
have an art collection or even know what
their favourite works of art are. Next year,
that will change as art moves from the
inaccessible to the everyday, thanks to AI.
Art hasn’t felt accessible to many for a
long time. Our main experience of it involves
visiting galleries and museums or feeling out
our depth in art history classes. At a gallery,
we spend a couple of hours looking at a lot
of seemingly important pieces, but then
we leave and the artworks stay where they
are. They don’t draw us in, like a favourite
album, movie or video game, and we know
we can’t afford to take them home with us.
They live and die in a physical space.
In 2022, AI will enable everyone to have
an art collection of their own by matching
their taste in art with further recommenda-
tions. Everyone has a particular style of art
they like – it’s as unique as a fingerprint. And
it doesn’t require specialist training. Anyone
can listen to a Beatles song and decide
within seconds if they like it. Similarly, most
people might claim they don’t know much
about art, but show them an artwork and
they’ll respond – positively, negatively or
neutrally. By understanding each user’s
unique taste in art, AI is able to recommend
new works for them to add to their library.
The starting point, as with all AI, is a huge
collection of data points that reflect what
people think when they like, dislike or are
simply left cold by a painting, sculpture or
image. While services such as Pinterest
and Instagram can help you discover art
based on your browsing history, it will also
be diluted by adverts and non-art images.
KULTURA, created by StikiPixels, my own
AI WILL HELP US TO
DISCOVER ART TO
FALL IN LOVE WITH
In 2022, appreciating art and finding new artists will be for
everyone, as algorithms recommend works that resonate
By Yarden Yaroshevski
company, is the only dedicated AI art
discovery platform at the time of writing.
It has 80 million data points about people’s
tastes and a library of 20,000 pieces of art.
An AI algorithm that we have called Daisy
is then able to match each user’s tastes Chat dethroned
with more art they may be interested in. Ellen DeGeneres, the
KULTURA already has 100,000 profiles beloved TV talk-show
and what is noticeable is how consistent host, will end her
online art curation is across demographics, show in 2022, after
territories and art styles. Certainly, the 19 seasons at the
works are different and each user’s taste is top of the daytime-
unique, but Daisy is able to recommend art chat game. The Ellen
with as much precision for a user in China DeGeneres Show
as it can for another in Nigeria or the UK. won 64 Emmys and
The result of this matching of art and DeGeneres presented
individual tastes means each KULTURA user more than 3,000
has, on average, a collection of 800 artworks episodes – but this has
– almost the same number on display at Tate been overshadowed
Britain, without spending a penny. KULTURA by accusations from
also helps artists get discovered, by staff of a hostile
recommending up-and-coming names environment where
alongside Botticelli and Van Gogh. bullying was rife. Pop
Art-discovery AI is as radical for the singer Kelly Clarkson
art world and art literacy as the invention will take over Ellen’s slot
of printing was to the world of books and – but not everywhere.
reading. Next year, as more people use Some stations have
it to discover new artists and new works, opted instead to run
art will become more mainstream. It will cheaper news-filler
occupy the same space as music, movies shows, citing both the
and video games – a fun, everyday part expense and criticisms
of hundreds of millions of people’s lives that the chat format
that’s accessible anywhere by anyone. has had its day. SV

Yarden
Yaroshevski
is founder
and CEO of
StikiPixels
A R T IN V E S T ME N T S
PHILANTHROPISTS
WILL FUND CHANGE
Getting your name on the new wing of a museum is antiquated –
wealthy donors will see a more lasting legacy in cause-driven projects
By Bettina Korek
In 2022, we will see a shift in how major
philanthropists support institutions, as
they turn away from memorialising their
reputations and look towards creating
sustainable cultural and social impacts.
Naming rights have long been a
mainstay of museum development strat-
egies. The opportunity to name a wing
of a museum or an entire building can
be a compelling incentive for many large
donors. However, the social upheavals
of the past two years and the climate
crisis have challenged this proposition.
As the very future of the Earth on which
monuments stand becomes less certain,
ideas of immortality feel out of touch.
Increasingly, major donors are creating
impact in the here and now. In 2021, Jeff
Bezos’ ex-wife MacKenzie Scott broke
the mould for philanthropy, making gifts
totalling $2.7 billion (£1.9bn) to cause-driven
organisations throughout the US, of which
$266m went to the arts. (Scott is a signatory
of the Giving Pledge, and will aim to give
away much of her fortune.) By contrast,
the budget of the US National Endowment
of the Arts totalled $167.5m in 2021.
Not only were many of the benefi-
ciaries lesser known, but Scott urged the
media to focus attention on their missions
rather than on herself. Certainly, people
are talking about her – as I am right now –
but people are also talking about Self Help
Graphics & Art, an experimental Chicana/o
printmaking studio east of Downtown Los
Angeles founded in the 1970s; Souls Grown
Deep, an Atlanta foundation supporting
Black artists from the South; and The
Laundromat Project, a community arts
centre in a former laundromat in Bed-Stuy,
Brooklyn. Scott has validated their work
and readied them to attract a new echelon
of donors. She has stepped out of the
limelight to allow them to shine.
Her choice to do this reflects a confi-
dence that their message will in turn
become a part of hers. As Scott said
in a blog post published in June 2021,
“putting large donors at the centre of
stories on social progress is a distortion
of their role… we are all attempting to
give away a fortune that was enabled
by systems in need of change.”
Next year, we will see the philanthropic
apparatus change even more. Instead
of the “selfie mode” of patronage that
focuses attention on the donor, chari-
table giving will become more photo-
journalistic, where the donor artfully
disappears into the causes they support.
This is not something that is taking place
overnight. Increasingly, we are seeing
major donors choose to name museum
programmes rather than buildings. These
often topical or thematic collaborations
instead become platforms for donors to
share expertise and success from their
own fields with arts organisations.
I believe my fellow art-museum leaders
will welcome this change as much as I do.
 C U LT U RE 117

Our job is to empower artists, and one
particularly timely reason for this is
because artists can tell stories that
bring people closer together. Now more
than ever, we must relearn ways to live
in communion with our neighbours and Bettina Korek
our environments, rather than in conflict. is chief
Society has much to learn from the executive of
intrepid patrons who are creating impact the Serpentine
in the world by amplifying artists’ voices. Galleries
 S ECTI O N 10 SEC URIT Y 119

FE ATURING WRITING BY

Betsy Bevilacqua
and Gurvais Grigg
Kenneth Payne
Tom Copinger-Symes
Ciaran Martin
Allan Liska
Emily Orton
Joe Robinson

SECURITY

ILLUSTR ATION

Israel Vargas

Ransomware attackers like to demand
payment in cryptocurrency, in particular
bitcoin. This is because it is seen as
anonymous and untraceable. In 2022,
rather than being seen as a facilitator
of criminal activity, cryptocurrency will
be recognised as an invaluable tool
for helping topple cyber criminals and
weeding out illicit activity, because it is
much less anonymous than people think.
Cryptocurrency operates on public,
immutable blockchain ledgers, making it
far more transparent than other forms of
value transfer. As knowledge and digital-
tracking capabilities develop further, this
inherent transparency is rapidly becoming
a critical advantage for those working to
track and prevent cyber crime.
We can learn a tremendous amount
about some ransomware operations by
following the money on the blockchain.
We know, for example, that some organ-
isations function on a Ransomware-as-
a-Service (RaaS) model. This is where
attackers known as affiliates “rent” usage
of a particular ransomware strain from
its creators or administrators, who in
exchange get a cut of the money from each
successful attack affiliates carry out. These
organisations also depend on illicit third-
party services that can help cyber criminals
carry out larger, more effective attacks.
These illicit service providers have
become the connective tissue of the
SECURIT Y 121
C R Y P T O C R IME S S OLV E D
RANSOMWARE
CRIMINALS WILL
BE CAUGHT OUT
Cryptocurrencies will no longer be the loot of choice for
online attackers – and may even prove to be their undoing
By Betsy Bevilacqua and Gurvais Grigg
ransomware ecosystem and the data source that ties them together is crypto-
currency blockchains. By analysing blockchain data we will be able to identify and
map ransomware actors and services, leading to the prevention of future campaigns.
There has been discussion that criminals will turn to using so-called privacy
coins such as Monero (which still uses a public blockchain ledger, but uses
technology to intentionally obfuscate the transactions), but this method has
drawbacks. Privacy coins simply aren’t as liquid as bitcoin and other cryptocur-
rencies, especially as some exchanges have declined to list them or de-listed them
due to regulatory concerns. Cryptocurrency is only useful to criminals if they can
obtain it from their victims and then use it to buy and sell goods and services or
cash out into fiat currency, and that is much more difficult with privacy coins.
In 2022, lawmakers, regulators and law-enforcement agencies will learn that
better cryptocurrency education and knowledge is becoming essential for their
operations. At Chainalysis, we have found that once these organisations better
understand how to use cryptocurrency to their advantage, they see that crypto
can actually help, not harm, their missions to topple cyber criminals.
Ransomware is very much here to stay, but assuming global adoption of crypto-
currency continues to evolve and law-enforcement education improves, crypto-
currency will become a crucial tool in helping to combat cyber crime in 2022.
Betsy Bevilacqua Gurvais Grigg
is vice president is global public
of information sector chief
security technology officer
at Chainalysis at Chainalysis
1 2 2 S ECURIT Y

Food and beverage manufacturing plants are the giants

of the global food industry, transforming raw agricultural
materials into products for mass consumption around the
globe. In 2019, meat alone accounted for around 24 per cent
of all food and beverage shipments in the US.
That’s why this year’s cyber attack on JBS, one of the
world’s largest meat processors, had such an impact.
It supplies nearly one fifth of the meat consumed in the
US and many shops experienced shortages as the company
worked to recover. With such a small number of firms
comprising most of the food supply chain, shutting one
plant down has a direct impact on a much wider population.
In 2022, we will learn from cyber attacks like this that food
security is now dependent on food-industry cyber security.
From farm to fork, food is becoming digitised, driven by
a soaring global population. From using smart devices to F IR E WA L L FA R MING
monitor and automate cultivation and livestock processes,
to the emergence of vertical farms, food processing and
delivery will become increasingly reliant on technology.
This digital transformation makes food security vulnerable FOOD SECURITY
to hackers. Food-production facilities often rely on
computers to monitor storage temperatures and many WILL RELY ON
of these systems rely on outdated software and operating
systems. If they were compromised, the entire food supply CYBER SECURITY
in a warehouse would no longer be safe for consumption.
Heightening the risk is the convergence of IT and opera- Increasing digitisation means
tional technology (OT) networks that has been brought many key sectors will be more
about by the rapid digital transformation of many food vulnerable to attack in 2022
companies during the pandemic. Security defences now
need to protect not only data centres and on-premises By Emily Orton
systems, but also cloud-computing networks and the edge.
There are several ways that the food industry can protect
itself. First, many need to update their legacy systems to
comply with modern security standards. Outdated OT is company – going undetected by rules-based approaches.
especially vulnerable – designed without security in mind Third, companies will increasingly have to rely on
and often incompatible with much of today’s software technology rather than humans to combat threats. For
and security tools. These can cause major operational example, artificial intelligence – which can act at machine
outages and complete shutdowns if compromised. speed and take autonomous action – will be needed to
Emily Orton Second, the industry needs to assess vulnerabilities identify threats and react quickly to stop a breach.
is co-founder and patch accordingly. Zero days, ransomware, advanced Finally, the food industry itself will need to improve
of Darktrace persistent threats, supply-chain attacks, targeted phishing information-sharing across state lines and international
and threats to OT and Internet of Things environments borders to work together and prevent these attacks.
are the main concerns for most organisations, regardless Next year, cyber attacks on the food sector will only
of the sector they are in. Attacks on the supply chain increase. If the industry does not fix its cyber problem,
– which account for the majority of those in the food we will see food scarcity, higher prices and the potential
industry – are virtually impossible to detect with legacy, sales of tainted food. Organisations will see that they need
signature-based security. Malicious software can be to keep pace with and respond to threats in real time,
packaged as legitimate and delivered into the heart of the rather than reacting to breaches when it is already too late.
 F U T UR E F LY E R S

AN AI FIGHTER PILOT
WILL BE TOP GUN
Humans will be out-manoeuvred in the and by the end it was able to defeat him.
skies by F-16s armed with algorithms Beyond the simulator, the Pentagon says
it intends to pit humans against machines
By Kenneth Payne in 2023. But with China forging ahead too,
it is likely to pull this programme into 2022.
Militarised AI will bring many changes.
With no pilot to consider, aircraft can be
In 2022, the pilot of an F-16 fighter jet will jink hard redesigned, allowing them to manoeuvre in
to the right and flick over into a roll, struggling to ways no human could tolerate. It also makes
evade the plane behind them. They won’t make it. scaling up air forces far easier than today,
Years of training and experience will suddenly become when it takes years to train those few humans
redundant. The AI algorithm controlling the chasing skilled enough to be a fighter pilot. Soon we
Consent for content plane will have changed the face of war forever. can expect large swarms of lightning-fast
euCONSENT, a AI first demonstrated the sorts of aerobatic craft in the skies, all acting in concert.
cross-border age- skills needed for dogfighting back in 2008. Andrew Small hordes are already being trialled in
verification project Ng’s team at Stanford University developed an AI- the US and elsewhere. While US Air Force
covering the EU and piloted helicopter that learned how to perform stunts generals imagine their new drones operating
UK will launch in 2022. simply by watching human pilots. The question then alongside humans as “loyal wingmen”, that’s
It aims to protect was: how long could human pilots retain their edge? more a reflection of their cultural predilec-
children from online The answer: not much longer. In August 2020, tions than of the need to risk human pilots
harm by ensuring DARPA, the US Defense Department’s research in the danger zone – well-defended enemy
they can see age- agency, said that an algorithm had defeated a human airspace, with degraded communications.
appropriate material, pilot in simulated aerial combat. Eight AI pilots fought The question, of course, is who will win,
but be blocked from against each other, with the winner, from Maryland- if those US and Chinese AI forces ever
accessing adult based Heron Systems, matched against an F-16 pilot in clash? An AI fighter-plane’s edge is in its
services and content. five simulated dog fights. The AI beat the human 5-0. algorithms, not its engines or missiles. That
The consortium In 2021, China ‘s own AI battled a human pilot, Fang means constantly updating its programme
hopes to achieve Guoyu, a Group Leader in the People’s Liberation to stay ahead of rival systems. 2022 will show
this by charging Army Air Force. “At first, it was not difficult to win,” us that future warfare will be a matter of
digital providers said Fang. But the AI learned from each encounter skilful coding rather than courageous flying.
to create robust
and interoperable
age-verification and
parental-consent
infrastructure. Plans
for a similar project
in the UK were
scrapped in 2020,
but euCONSENT Kenneth Payne
will set out to achieve is director
many of the same of research
safety goals. SV at the Defence
Studies
Department,
School of
Security
Studies, King’s
College, London

UK Defence will realise that software and
digital transformation is as important as the
more familiar hardware that populated the
Top Trumps cards of our youth. Ships, tanks
and planes (and the humans that operate
and fight in and alongside them) won’t be
obsolete, but our edge will come from a
blend of humans, hardware and software.
This is especially true in the two “new”
domains of warfare – cyber (space) and
(outer) space – where humans and hardware
remain key, but software will determine
our ability to deliver Defence’s purpose.
Like all large organisations, UK Defence
is working to maximise the opportunities
and manage the risks of the digital age. This
requires more investment in time and effort
in organising our (internal and external) data;
WA R FA R E E V OLV E S
UK DEFENCE
WILL BECOME
MORE DIGITAL
A cyber-transformation plan
will unite hardware, humans
and data to defend the UK
By Tom Copinger-Symes
categorising and cataloguing it; and making
it available and ready for exploitation by
both humans and machines. The effort will
take years to really ramp up, but in 2022 we
will start to see significant changes. Our
intent is that data is valued as Defence’s
second-most valuable asset after people.
Having made our data ready, we will
need to be able to access it, whether at the
battlefield “edge” or the corporate “core”.
In 2022, Defence’s “Digital Backbone” –
the standardisation of networks and infor-
mation exchanges along which that data will
flow – will begin to cohere the connective
tissue that links our sensors (on ships,
tanks, satellites and planes and inside our
cyber defences) with our decision-makers
(whether they be admirals or corporals, or
supervisory control and data-acquisition
systems) and our “effectors” (weapons
systems, surgical tools or infantry soldiers).
This Digital Backbone will have cloud (and
cloud-like) hosting and compute services
and tools at both core and edge. We are
already getting there at the lower security
levels, but in 2022 we’ll begin to see
cloud deployed at Secret – the level at
which Defence tends to operate and fight.
In 2022, our data will be increasingly ready
and accessible, but we also need to buy,
build and deploy software to exploit that data
at the speed of relevance and at enterprise
scale. To do this, we will see Defence’s “Digital
Foundry”, of which the new Defence AI
Centre forms a key part, make an impact. The
Foundry is a federated ecosystem of dozens
of digital teams across Defence, providing
the core, cross-cutting environments,
standards and tools to enable those teams to
work without feeling like they’re reinventing
the wheel every time they develop a new
product or service. The Foundry will also be
a step-change in how we collaborate with
the private sector and academia, making it
easier not just for the big defence and digital
“primes”, but also for SMEs and students
to play their part in our national security.
Just like any other organisation, Defence
must do all of this while facing a wide range
Major Gen Tom
Copinger-Symes is
director of military
digitisation, UK
Strategic Command
of threats – not least from other states,
criminal groups and terrorists. Our defensive
cyber-transformation programme is tightly
integrated with those other initiatives. It too
will significantly mature in 2022 – ensuring
our people, our processes, our data and
our technology are secure by design and
protected from, as well as resilient to, the
attacks that will inevitably come.
None of this will be delivered without
the right people and skills and next year
our workforce transformation will really
kick in. Our approach is one of a tightly-knit
“whole force” – of uniformed regulars
and reserves, civil servants, industry and
academia – bringing the diverse range
of skillsets and mindsets that we need
for this immense but exciting challenge.
 SEC URIT Y 125

In 2022, cyber incidents will cause real and DIGI TA L T HR E AT S

sustained disruption to our everyday comforts –
and maybe kill people. This won’t be because of any
great geopolitical development, but because a bunch
of semi-sophisticated, well organised and mostly CYBER CRIMINALS
Russian criminals are increasingly out of control.
For some years now, a strange combination of WILL CAUSE
Hollywood and the military-industrial complex
has been telling us that cyber attacks present an PHYSICAL HARM
existential threat to humanity, but the reality has
been different. Cyber harms inflicted by bad people Ramping up the ransomware and online attacks may
have turned out to be very serious, but mostly in have deadly real-world consequences in 2022
boring and largely invisible ways. The closest most
ordinary people come to encountering a cyber By Ciaran Martin
“attack” is either by losing a small amount of
money or by getting a letter from a company they
do business with, telling them that some personal
data they don’t understand the value of has been weeks and, over the spring and summer, dozens of hospitals in Europe and the
stolen by people in another continent whose identity US found themselves locked out of life-critical systems by ransomware attacks.
no one really knows. There’s the odd exception – In June, cyber attacks were on the agenda at the annual meeting of G7
the Russian state is fond of battering Ukraine, for countries in Cornwall, and many in the cybersecurity industry hoped that
example – but for most people in most countries, this, combined with Joe Biden confronting Vladimir Putin for harbouring
cyber has not been much to get worked up about. the criminals on Russian soil, would turn the tide. However, this is unlikely
This will change, as cyber criminals increasingly to happen because we still have almost no way of punishing cyber criminals.
attack in ways that cause far more hurtful and visible After a brief lull, ransomware has continued in 2021 and has been no less
consequences. In the first half of 2021, the disruptiondangerous. Despite the global spotlight on their activities, the absence of
to the Colonial Pipeline in the United States left two viable sanctions has emboldened the criminals to attack, among other things,
thirds of petrol stations in South Carolina empty, childcare facilities and hospitals in the US and the Covid-vaccine booking system
which spurred panic buying and all the risk that in and around Rome. Worse still, political attention on the problem is waning.
entails. Fresh food was given away in large quantities In the very near future, governments and investigators will have to raise
in Sweden because supermarket tills weren’t their game. Ransomware attacks are lucrative. In 2021, the so-called DarkSide
working. Schools were hit in New Zealand and the group of hackers that took the Colonial Pipeline offline, took in at least $90m
UK. Most dangerously, healthcare was targeted. In (£66m) in just nine months. Emisoft, a cyber-security company, calculated
May, the entire Irish health service was crippled for payments of ransoms in 2020 at a minimum of $18 billion. And that means
that attackers have fewer scruples about causing
actual physical harm. There is no direct proof that
anyone died as a result of this year’s cyber attacks
Ciaran Martin is professor of practice in the on hospitals. But preventing people getting vaccines
management of public organisations at is still an act of violence, even if done remotely
the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford by computer. In 2022, it will only be a matter of
University, and the former chief executive time before those shady figures hiding behind
of the National Cyber Security Centre their screens cause actual human injury or death.
126 SECURIT Y
The onslaught of ransomware attacks in
2020 and 2021 proved that current methods
of cyber defence are no longer effective.
In 2022, we will see a shift in mindset
among security leaders and defenders
that will help slow the growth of attacks.
Historically, defenders have focused on
protecting specific points of entry, tracking
a single threat related to criminal activity,
such as phishing campaigns, unpatched
firewalls, Microsoft Exchange weaknesses
and so on. But the introduction and rapid
growth of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS)
since 2019 has allowed ransomware groups
to vastly expand their targets, raising the
threat and leaving organisations vulnerable
from multiple angles. This makes the tradi-
tional defence mindset far less effective.
RaaS allows newer threat actors to easily
launch ransomware attacks while giving
more experienced groups a chance to profit
from their “affiliates”. The affiliate system
turned ransomware into a hot-swappable
market, enabling syndicates to jump around
and use different tactics to gain access to a
target’s system. If Conti is shut down, affil-
iates can jump right to BitLocker. If that is
stopped, they can join BlackMatter or any
of the other RaaS offerings advertised on
underground forums. The fluidity of affiliates
– some belonging to multiple RaaS offerings
simultaneously – means that ransomware
is hard to track using current methods.
In 2022, we will broaden the way we think
about ransomware actors. They are not a
single homogenous group, but rather a
collective of dozens of independent threat
actors working collaboratively. Defences
will expand to track individual affiliates,
irrespective of which ransomware they’re
deploying. There is a growing mantra in
information security that it is never a
good idea to name threat actors after
the tools they use because the tools and
Allan Liska is senior
security architect
and ransomware
specialist at
Recorded Future
actors are so fluid. We will finally correct this.
Though many ransomware threat actors
are based in Russia, we have also seen an
uptick in attacks emanating from China.
The market will continue to diversify as
more cyber criminals see ransomware as a
lucrative business and the affiliate system
makes it easy to enter. From January to
July 2021, ransomware attacks came via
phishing campaigns, Remote Desktop
Protocol, Citrix, Pulse Secure VPN and
more, all being used in various ways. The
diversity of the attack vectors is vast and
the list of vulnerabilities will continue to
grow as threat actors’ methods advance
and they discover exploitable weaknesses.
This requires organisations to take a
R A N S OM WA R E WA R FA R E
WE’LL LEARN
NEW DEFENCES
Organisations must change their cyber
defence tactics if they’re to survive 2022
By Allan Liska
universal protection strategy, defending to enforce this defence method. It will be led
all possible entry points rather than by organisations as they stop playing whack-
devoting resources to blocking what they a-mole with their security and instead focus
see as the biggest threat of the moment. on the specific affiliates behind the attacks.
It’s a methodology that’s already being Mandiant’s release of its infamous APT1
recommended by security experts, and in report in 2004 was the first sign that private
2022 this approach will gain momentum, organisations were not treating nation
only growing in urgency. Budgetary limita- state actors as monoliths. Different nation
tions of companies often make it difficult for state groups had different skill levels, used
multiple large security upgrades to happen different tools and had different goals. We
quickly and simultaneously, but organisations will finally catch up to that mode of thinking
that opt for incremental changes will leave with ransomware affiliates in 2022.
themselves exposed. By the time one vulner- After years of bigger, bolder attacks and
ability is patched, ransomware actors will rising ransom payouts, 2022 promises to be
have found access through another route. the year leaders across sectors and indus-
Despite global government acknowl- tries experience a ransomware reality check.
edgment of ransomware, there will not be When mindsets shift, organisations and the
legislation and policy change rapid enough citizens they serve will be better protected.
The character of conflict between nations
has fundamentally changed. Governments
and militaries now fight on our behalf in the
“grey zone”, where the boundaries between
peace and war are blurred. They must
navigate a complex web of ambiguous and
deeply interconnected challenges, ranging
from political destabilisation and disinfor-
mation campaigns to cyber attacks, assassi-
nations, proxy operations, election meddling
or perhaps even man-made pandemics. Add
to this list the existential threat of climate
change (and its geopolitical ramifications)
and it is clear that the description of what
now constitutes a national security issue has
broadened, each crisis straining or degrading
the fabric of our national resilience.
Traditional analysis tools are poorly
equipped to predict and respond to these
blurred and intertwined threats. Instead,
in 2022, governments and militaries will
use sophisticated and credible real-life
simulations, putting software at the heart
of their decision-making and operating
processes. The UK Ministry of Defence,
for example, is developing what it calls a
military Digital Backbone. This will incor-
porate cloud computing, modern networks
and a new transformative capability called
a Single Synthetic Environment, or SSE.
This SSE will combine artificial intelli-
gence, machine learning, computational
modelling and modern distributed systems
with trusted data sets from multiple
sources to support detailed, credible
simulations of the real world. This data
will be owned by critical institutions, but will
also be sourced via an ecosystem of trusted
partners, such as the Alan Turing Institute.
An SSE offers a multilayered simulation
of a city, a region or a country, including
high-quality mapping and information
about critical national infrastructure,
such as power, water, transport networks
and telecommunications. This can then
be overlaid with other information, such
as smart-city data, information about
military deployment or data gleaned from
social listening. From this, models can
be constructed that give a rich, detailed
picture of how a region or city might react
to a given event: a disaster, an epidemic
or a cyberattack, or a combination of
such events, organised by state enemies.
Defence synthetics are not a new
concept. However, previous solutions have
been built in a standalone way that limits C R I SI S AV E R SION
reuse, longevity, choice and – crucially –
the speed of insight needed to effectively
counteract grey-zone threats.
National security officials will be able SIMULATION
to use SSEs to identify threats early,
understand them better, explore their WILL HELP
response options and analyse the likely
consequences of different actions. They US PREDICT
will even be able to use them to train,
rehearse and put their plans into effect. THREATS
By running thousands of simulated futures,
senior leaders will be able to grapple with The power of digital Single
complex questions, refining policies and Synthetic Environments
complex plans in a virtual world before will drive decision-making
implementing them in the real one.
One key question that will only grow in By Joe Robinson
importance in 2022 will be: how can we best
secure our population and supply chain in
preparing against dramatic weather events
coming from climate change? SSEs will be
able to help answer this by pulling together
regional infrastructure, networks and roads
and population, with meteorology models
to see how and when events might unfold.
In 2022, advances in simulation
technology and virtually enabled decision-
making will begin to drive profound
improvements in our national security. No
single company or government department
will be able to create and field these kinds
of capabilities alone. We will see more Joe Robinson
collaboration between government depart- is CEO defence
ments, industry and academia to help keep and security
us safe in an increasingly unstable world. at Improbable
1 2 8 C OLO PHON W I T H GR AT I T UDE

THE WW2022 SQUAD

Many thanks to all the writers, illustrators, analysts,
photographers, thinkers and influencers who
helped made The WIRED World in 2022 possible

Michelle Kennedy Natalia Kucirkova Bill Gross Ivan Mortimer- Andrew Warren Yaroshevski
Uche Adegbite Naomi Moris Vanessa Nakate Schutts Jacky Wright Bettina Korek
Daniel Dines Matthew Taylor Neha Palmer Dambisa Moyo Scott Belsky Betsy Bevilacqua
Kai-fu Lee Daniel M. Davis Ram Iyer Simon Baron- David Fischer Gurvais Grigg
Matt Brittin J. Craig Venter Lars Stenqvist Cohen Alex Rinke Kenneth Payne
Pete Shadbolt Mohamed Taha Emma Kersti Kaljulaid David Birch Tom Copinger-
Ian Levy Bill Gates Nehrenheim Oluseun Brian Elliott Symes
Jessica Wade Michelle You Audrey Tang Onigbinde Robert Norton Ciaran Martin
Lucie Green Sameh Wahba Mariana Zurab Ashvil Kwame Kwei- Allan Liska
Peter Chapman Ellen MacArthur Mazzucato Sonali De Rycker Armah Emily Orton
Amrit Chandan Greg Jackson Maria Konnikova Yin Yin Lü Danny Rimer Joe Robinson
Anil Seth Antoine Hubert Bernice Lee Fanny Moizant Yarden Sanjana Varghese

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