215

METHODOLOGY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE DAMAGE

COST RESULTING FROM A LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE
VICINITY OF WELLINGTON

G. R. Birss*

1. INTRODUCTION post-1 968 c a t e g o r i e s . T w o areas c o n t a i n -

ing half the c o m m e r c i a l floor area in
A t the r e q u e s t of the E a r t h q u a k e Wellington city were examined and the
and W a r D a m a g e C o m m i s s i o n , the New Zealand b a l a n c e of b u i l d i n g floor area for the
N a t i o n a l Society for E a r t h q u a k e E n g i n e e r i n g two building c l a s s e s in b o t h W e l l i n g t o n
set up a study group to determine the m a x i - city and surrounding a f f e c t e d c o m m u n i t i e s
m u m p r o b a b l e loss the C o m m i s s i o n may suffer assessed on a pro-rata basis. Darwin
by way of c l a i m s r e s u l t i n g from a large a s s e s s e d damage v e r s u s M e r c a l l i intensity
earthquake with its epicentre near r e l a t i o n s h i p s for the two b u i l d i n g types
Wellington. as w e l l as for d w e l l i n g s . To t a k e into
a c c o u n t the loss of "fittings and f a c i l i -
The study g r o u p s task w a s to d e t e r -
1
t i e s " , the o r i g i n a l loss c a l c u l a t i o n w a s
m i n e the o r d e r of cost of physical d a m a g e doubled. The v a l u e of d w e l l i n g loss w a s
to b u i l d i n g s and their contents w h i c h could a b o u t half the loss of c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g s
c r e d i b l y be expected to r e s u l t from large in b o t h e v e n t s .
earthquake attack.
Dowrick (2) c a r r i e d out an e s t i -
Seismic loss information for New m a t e of loss to p r o p e r t i e s insured with
Zealand c o n d i t i o n s is m i n i m a l and it w a s the New Zealand South B r i t i s h Insurance
therefore necessary to c r i t i c a l l y review G r o u p as a result of two e a r t h q u a k e s in
published overseas data. Where a p p r o p r i a t e , t u r n , giving rise to m o d i f i e d Mercalli
a d j u s t m e n t s w e r e m a d e to a c c o m m o d a t e N e w intensity values of IX and X in W e l l i n g t o n
Zealand c o n d i t i o n s . city. The latter e v e n t w a s p r e d i c t e d to
r e s u l t in 2.6 times the d a m a g e c o s t o c c u r -
Loss information w a s c o m p i l e d as ring due to the former e v e n t .
the r a t i o of d a m a g e cost to b u i l d i n g v a l u e
and v a r i e d w i t h felt e a r t h q u a k e intensity The c o m p u t a t i o n a l p r o c e d u r e used
as w e l l as w i t h type of b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c - by the study group f o l l o w e d that used by
tion . D o w r i c k in his study w i t h some r e f i n e m e n t .

The total value and structural

classification of the building stock in 3. DAMAGE A S S E S S M E N T METHOD
the a f f e c t e d area w a s compiled and e n t e r e d
on a computer. A program w a s set up to 3.1 Selection of Earthquakes
e n a b l e loss c a l c u l a t i o n s to be carried o u t
for the a p p r o p r i a t e b u i l d i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n Both the p o t e n t i a l m o n e t a r y losses
and for the r e l e v a n t e a r t h q u a k e i n t e n s i t i e s . from a large d i s a s t e r and the average
From this the total loss w a s c a l c u l a t e d . a n n u a l loss from all e a r t h q u a k e s o v e r long
p e r i o d s of time are of c o n c e r n to i n s u r -
The r e s u l t s of the study e x p r e s s e d ance i n t e r e s t s . H o w e v e r , this study c o n -
as m o n e t a r y loss are c o n f i d e n t i a l to the centrated only on the former p r o b l e m .
E a r t h q u a k e and War Damage C o m m i s s i o n . In
this p a p e r , t h e r e f o r e , r e s u l t s are not p r e - It was decided to look at e a r t h -
sented in a b s o l u t e d o l l a r t e r m s , b u t are q u a k e events w h i c h would r e s u l t in m o d i -
g i v e n as r e l a t i v e v a l u e s . fied Mercalli i n t e n s i t i e s of IX and X in
Wellington city. A recent seismicity
m o d e l for New Zealand < 3) , i n c o r p o r a t i n g
2. PREVIOUS STUDIES both geological and s e i s m o l o g i c a l i n f o r -
m a t i o n suggests that seismic a c t i v i t y is
In 1 981 D a r w i n (1) estimated the diffuse and is not constrained by the
total building and dwelling loss as a l o c a t i o n of known f a u l t s . Hence l o c a t i o n s
result of two envisaged earthquakes in of scenario e a r t h q u a k e s used in this study
W e l l i n g t o n w i t h i n t e n s i t i e s MM V I I I and were chosen so that Smith * s (4) more
X. B u i l d i n g s w e r e divided into p r e - and w e a k l y attenuated type B e a r t h q u a k e would
apply, thereby maximising the area of
damaging effects. Two earthquakes for
* Ministry of Works and Development, e a c h v a l u e of MM intensity in W e l l i n g t o n
Wellington. were chosen, a total of four events.
BULLETIN OF THE NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL SOCIETY EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING, Vol 18, No 3, September 1985
200
Jkro
 217

A r e a s as far to the n o r t h of W e l l i n g t o n W e l l i n g t o n m e t r o p o l i t a n area or for h o u s e s

and also as far to the south as p o s s i b l e in any a r e a , as the total v a l u e of b u i l d -
w e r e c o v e r e d by a p p r o p r i a t e positioning ing concentrations experiencing severe
of the e p i c e n t r e s u s i n g the isoseismal shaking w o u l d be m u c h less by c o m p a r i s o n
formulae determined by Smith (4) . The and b e c a u s e k n o w l e d g e of soil c o n d i t i o n s
four e v e n t s are d e s c r i b e d in F i g u r e 1 w i t h w a s less r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e .
the isoseismals plotted from Smith's
formulae.
3.3 Classification and Valuation of
T h e v a l u e s of R i c h t e r magnitude Buildings
for the s c e n a r i o e v e n t s w e r e calculated
in the same way as e x p l a i n e d by D o w r i c k In p r i n c i p l e , the finer the sub-
(2) to o b t a i n m o s t likely v a l u e s . The division of b u i l d i n g c l a s s e s , the less
f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n s w i t h the number the error in e s t i m a t e of d a m a g e for each
of e v e n t s p e r annum v e r s u s R i c h t e r m a g n i - class. However, because of the large
tude are s h o w n in F i g u r e s 3 and 4. As n u m b e r s of b u i l d i n g s involved in the study
c a n be s e e n , the v a l u e s of R i c h t e r m a g n i - and in order to take the g r e a t e s t a d v a n -
tude o c c u r r i n g m o s t frequently are 7.8 tage from published data, a reasonably
for the MM IX e v e n t , and 8.4 for the M M X crude classification system was used.
event. The average return periods for
the e v e n t c a n be c o m p u t e d from Figures B a s e d o n V a l u a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t data
3 and 4: MM IX 246 y e a r s ; MM X 1 100 y e a r s . b u i l d i n g s were g r o u p e d by the following
The former v a l u e c o m p a r e s w e l l w i t h 220 classes:
y e a r s c a l c u l a t e d m o r e p r e c i s e l y by S m i t h
and B e r r y m a n (3) using the same s e i s m i c i t y a) h o u s e s (assuming t i m b e r - f r a m e d )
model. b) unreinforced masonry
c) pre-1936 reinforced concrete
d) 1936-1977 reinforced concrete
3.2 Seismicity e) post-1977 reinforced concrete

Large variations in the nature The b u i l d i n g c l a s s e s w e r e d e t e r -

and intensity of ground shaking during m i n e d from the f o l l o w i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .
a n e a r t h q u a k e can occur w i t h i n q u i t e short The y e a r 1 936 w a s t a k e n as the final year
distances. The m e t h o d of d e l i n e a t i n g the d u r i n g w h i c h b u i l d i n g s not d e s i g n e d for
soil types to c o r r e l a t e the sharp v a r i a - earthquake resistance were completed.
t i o n s in s h a k i n g and d a m a g e is k n o w n as The lateral d e s i g n level for buildings
microzoning. designed in a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the a p p r o -
priate building code was basically
S m i t h ' s ( 4 ) f o r m u l a e for c a l c u l a - u n c h a n g e d from 1 9 3 6 - 1 9 7 7 . The final year
ting the spread of earthquake shaking for w h i c h b u i l d i n g s n o t d e s i g n e d to the
e f f e c t s from the e a r t h q u a k e s o u r c e a s s u m e s c u r r e n t L o a d i n g s C o d e (NZS 4 2 0 3 : 1 9 7 6 ) w e r e
average ground conditions. In the study o c c u p i e d w a s a s s u m e d to be 1 9 7 7 .
v a r i a t i o n s d u e to ground c o n d i t i o n s w e r e
a p p l i e d only to b u i l d i n g s in the d e n s e l y U n d e r the 1 944 E a r t h q u a k e and War
built Wellington metropolitan area. D a m a g e A c t , all p r o p e r t y insured a g a i n s t
loss or d a m a g e by fire b e c o m e s a u t o m a t i -
M i c r o z o n e areas h a v e b e e n d e l i n e - cally insured for e a r t h q u a k e d a m a g e , up
ated (5) for W e l l i n g t o n and Berryman's to the level of the p r o p e r t y s indemnity 1

recommendations (6) w e r e used to o b t a i n value (7). There is unfortunately no

the i n c r e m e n t of MM i n t e n s i t y for p a r t i c u - single simple formula for establishing
lar ground conditions. This was added indemnity value„ The quantity has been
to the v a l u e selected for a v e r a g e g r o u n d . described as "replacement value minus
T h e MM i n c r e m e n t s used w e r e : d e p r e c i a t i o n " , b u t n e i t h e r of t h e s e q u a n -
t i t i e s is r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . H o w e v e r the
Ground Description MM Increment study g r o u p w e r e a d v i s e d that the V a l u a -
tion D e p a r t m e n t ' s " e q u a l i s e d v a l u e " , that
Basement rock -1 i s , c u r r e n t v a l u a t i o n for the c o v e r e d p r o -
perty w o u l d be a s a t i s f a c t o r y a p p r o x i m a -
Compact sediment (assumed
tion to "indemnity v a l u e " . For the p u r -
average ground) 0 pose of this study, it was therefore
High porosity sediment +1 decided to use Valuation Department
statistics and computerised data "equa-
Deep alluvium +2 l i s e d " to M a r c h 1 9 8 3 . These valuations
H e n c e , for W e l l i n g t o n city, the w e r e t a k e n to r e p r e s e n t the m a x i m u m l i a -
"average ground" intensity (MM) values b i l i t y of the E a r t h q u a k e and W a r D a m a g e
w e r e d e c r e a s e d by one u n i t for " b a s e m e n t Commission.
r o c k " c o n d i t i o n s and increased by o n e u n i t
w h e r e "high p o r o s i t y s e d i m e n t s " u n d e r l a i d 3.4 Relationships Between Intensity
the b u i l d i n g s . All buildings in Lower and B u i l d i n g D a m a g e
H u t t w e r e a s s u m e d to be f o u n d e d o n soft
soil (deep a l l u v i u m ) and the "average s o i l " 3.4.1 Seismic I n t e n s i t y and Damage
MM v a l u e i n c r e m e n t e d by 2; an i n c r e m e n t
of 1 .5 w a s a p p l i e d to b u i l d i n g s in P e t o n e In the m o d i f i e d Mercalli scale,
(6) , w h e r e g r o u n d c o n d i t i o n s w e r e c o n s i - levels of seismic i n t e n s i t y a r e defined
d e r e d to f a l l b e t w e e n the last two c a t e - by d i r e c t r e f e r e n c e to e f f e c t s o n b u i l d -
gories . ings . S u m m a r i s i n g the e f f e c t s of the San
F e r n a n d o e a r t h q u a k e of 1 9 7 1 , W h i t m a n (8)
This refinement was not considered notes the following trends among the
j ustified for b u i l d i n g s o u t s i d e of the c o n c r e t e and steel b u i l d i n g s :
 MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY

Fig. 2. Damage Intensity Relationships Used In This Study

7 8
O

X
7 -
21
I 6 -
z
<c
5 -
cr
LxJ

o*
3

2 H

J-

6-4 6-6 6-8 7 0 7-2 7-4 7-6 7-8 so 8-2 6-4

RICHTER MAGNITUDE

Fig. 3.
Frequency Distribution of Scenario Earthquakes

(a) M M I X Event
 219

MM VI Most buildings suffered no tion on damage a f f e c t i n g this c l a s s of

damage. Some buildings had building. The MDR/MM relationship was
p a r t i t i o n w a l l c r a c k s , b u t only o b t a i n e d p r i m a r i l y by c o m p a r i s o n w i t h the
to a very limited e x t e n t . c u r v e a l r e a d y o b t a i n e d for the 1 9 3 6 - 1 9 7 7
reinforced concrete buildings. T h e Com-
MM VII S i g n i f i c a n t d a m a g e to the p r e - m e n t a r y on N Z S S 1 9 0 0 : 1 965 c h a p t e r 8 (10)
1933 (pre-seismic d e s i g n ) b u i l - w a s r e f e r r e d to t o g e t h e r w i t h the c o m p o -
dings , while the performance nent d a m a g e m a t r i c e s of W h i t m a n , H o n g and
of the m o d e r n b u i l d i n g s , b o t h Reed (11). It w a s d e c i d e d to decrease
steel and c o n c r e t e , w a s very the M D R v a l u e of 10 p e r c e n t for c l a s s (d)
satisfactory. R e p a i r of c r a c k s (1 936-1 977) b u i l d i n g s at MM VIII to about
and p a r t i t i o n w a l l s accounted 2.5 percent for class (e) buildings.
for m o s t of the d a m a g e . V a l u e s at MM IX and X w e r e o b t a i n e d by
e x t r a p o l a t i o n for the n e w MM V I I I v a l u e
MM VII.5 Only the post-1 947 (seismic w i t h the c u r v e r o u g h l y p a r a l l e l to the
design) steel buildings did c u r v e for the 1 9 3 6 - 1 9 7 7 b u i l d i n g s .
not suffer extensive damage.
T h e post-1 947 c o n c r e t e build- T h e bulk of i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e
ings w e r e d a m a g e d c o n s i d e r a b l y . for p r o d u c i n g the M D R / M M c u r v e s w a s not
"raw" but rather e s t i m a t e s d e r i v e d from
MM VIII Modern concrete buildings initial data. However Steinbrugge (12)
received very extensive struc- asserts that "most loss d a t a published
tural d a m a g e . in engineering and scientific reports
a f t e r an e a r t h q u a k e r e q u i r e m a j o r i n t e r -
p r e t a t i v e e f f o r t s to h a v e any u s e " .
3.4.2 M e a n Damage Ratios
From the d a t a o b t a i n e d from v a r i o u s
The "mean damage ratio" (MDR) s o u r c e s , the d e g r e e of scatter at each
e x p r e s s e s t h e v a l u e of d a m a g e to a b u i l d - v a l u e of MM w a s q u a n t i f i e d as the c o -
ing, resulting from earthquake shaking efficient of v a r i a t i o n (COV). The COV
to a given v a l u e of m o d i f i e d Mercalli w a s o f t e n similar for d i f f e r e n t M M v a l u e s
intensity ( M M ) , as a p r o p o r t i o n of the within the same building class and by
v a l u e of t h e b u i l d i n g in its undamaged a v e r a g i n g , a c o n s t a n t v a l u e of COV was
state. It is assumed that the value d e r i v e d for the a n a l y s i s of e a c h class
r e p r e s e n t e d by the n u m e r a t o r is the cost of s t r u c t u r e (see F i g u r e 2 ) .
of r e p a i r i n g the d a m a g e . The value d e s -
cribed by the d e n o m i n a t o r is discussed In their a n a l y s i s of s e i s m i c a l l y
subsequently. d e s i g n e d b u i l d i n g s w h e r e MDR e x c e e d e d 10
p e r c e n t , W h i t m a n , H o n g and R e e d (11) report
T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n MDR and v a l u e s of COV from 40 p e r c e n t to 130 p e r -
MM c l e a r l y d e p e n d s o n the n a t u r e of the cent . Such h i g h v a l u e s of COV reflect
building structure. As an e x a m p l e , u n r e i n - the c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d in
forced brickwork would be expected to a study such as t h i s and this u n c e r t a i n t y
e x p e r i e n c e far g r e a t e r d a m a g e at a g i v e n should be n o t e d .
value of MM than a modern reinforced
concrete building. T h e r e is a d i f f e r e n c e in M D R v a l u e
d e p e n d i n g on w h e t h e r the d e n o m i n a t o r r e p r e -
The mean damage ratios for the sents m a r k e t v a l u e or r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t .
d i f f e r e n t b u i l d i n g c l a s s e s g i v e n in s e c - The d i f f e r e n c e between the two v a l u e s ,
t i o n 3.4.1 are s u m m a r i s e d in F i g u r e 2. a r i s i n g from d e p r e c i a t i o n , i n f l a t i o n and
They were derived from a variety of market conditions, will obviously be
sources. Some published data w a s dis- g r e a t e s t for old b u i l d i n g s . For t h e L o s
c o u n t e d o n the b a s i s t h a t it w a s a s s e s s e d Angeles area, it was found (11) that
for a s i t u a t i o n w h e r e the s t a n d a r d of c o n - market value generally exceeded replace-
struction would probably be generally m e n t v a l u e for b u i l d i n g s less t h a n a b o u t
i n f e r i o r to that a p p l y i n g in N e w Z e a l a n d . five y e a r s o l d , but t h e n d e c r e a s e d to a
c o n s t a n t 40 p e r c e n t of r e p l a c e m e n t v a l u e .
B u i l d i n g s of c l a s s (a) - h o u s i n g
- w e r e a s s u m e d to be t i m b e r f r a m e d . MDR/ If this is true in N e w Zealand,
MM data for timber d w e l l i n g s in the U n i t e d then it follows that v a l u e s of M D R based
States (9) w a s p l o t t e d t o g e t h e r w i t h a on m a r k e t v a l u e w o u l d be m o r e t h a n t w i c e
single estimate for New Zealand from that b a s e d on r e p l a c e m e n t v a l u e for the
C o o n e y and F o w k e s (9) . B a s e d o n the two maj o r i t y of b u i l d i n g s c o n s i d e r e d in this
points obtained for M M IX i n t e n s i t y , a study.
c o n s t a n t v a l u e of c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n
of 20 p e r c e n t w a s a s s i g n e d to the M D R / M M The various sources of data
c u r v e s h o w n in F i g u r e 2 . o b t a i n e d d u r i n g the study m e a n s that it
was n o t a l w a y s clear on w h a t b a s i s the
For classes (b) , (c ) and (d) MDRs w e r e a s s e s s e d . However, the final
r e f e r e n c e s (1) to (7) p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a t i o n smoothed MDR/MM relationships were com-
but considerable scatter was evident in pared w i t h MDR v a l u e s r e p o r t e d by W h i t m a n
t h e d a t a p l o t t e d from t h e s e r e f e r e n c e s . et al (11) for market value and for
r e p l a c e m e n t cost and found to c o r r e l a t e
Building class (e) (post-1 977) b e s t w i t h those o b t a i n e d on a m a r k e t v a l u e
is t y p i c a l l y the m o d e r n d u c t i l e b u i l d i n g basis.
d e s i g n e d to d e f o r m a n d c r a c k in a c o n -
t r o l l e d , s a f e m a n n e r r a t h e r than fail in T h e a m o u n t of m o n e y a c t u a l l y paid
a brittle, possibly catastrophic way. out for repair could e x c e e d the p r o d u c t
T h e r e a p p e a r s to be n o p u b l i s h e d i n f o r m a - of M D R and m a r k e t v a l u e by s e v e r a l - f o l d .
220

7 -

LU
CL
4

3 -

0 JL
6-4 6-6 6-8 7-0 7-2 7-4 7-6 7-8 8-0 82 84

RICHTER MAGNITUDE

Fig. 4.
Frequency Distribution of Scenario Earthquakes

(b) M M X Event

Site Capital Land Const WCC

Street Area Use Age Mzone
Cover Value Value Material Classn

A b e l S m i t h St 32 59 235,000 215,000 75 2 CC 2 C
Abel S m i t h St 39 39 225,000 135,000 75 6 CI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 1 3 13 170,000 167,000 82 7B WI 2
Abel S m i t h St 1 7 35 71,000 43,500 80 5 CI 2 C
A b e l S m i t h St 71 79 420,000 168,000 81 7 CI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 59 59 175,000 172,000 83 X XI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 23 40 100,000 100,000 80 P WI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 1 22 122 400,000 317,000 84 4 CX 2
A b e l S m i t h St 1 0 1 2 39,000 33,000 75 X XX 2 C
A b e l S m i t h St 37 74 220,000 85,000 70 7A CI 2 C
A b e l S m i t h St 78 1 1 1 278,000 277,000 80 X XX 2 B
A b e l S m i t h St 1 3 21 62,500 59,000 84 O WI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 1 0 19 48,500 44,000 84 9 WI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 8 1 5 51,500 49,000 84 9 WI 2
A b e l S m i t h St 44 1 62 230,000 215,000 20 X BX 2
A b e l S m i t h St 1 0 26 255,000 242,000 84 X XX 2
Abel S m i t h St 23 33 75,000 52,500 23 X XX 2
Abel S m i t h St 1 2 23 65,000 62,000 84 9 WI 2
Abel S m i t h St 22 49 165,000 50,000 84 7B CI 2 C

Fig. 5.
Sample Computer Listing
 221

For example, a moderate to severely t h a n h o u s e s , c o m p u t e r t a p e listings for

d a m a g e d o l d e r b u i l d i n g w o u l d p r o b a b l y be the central b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t s (CBD) w e r e
demolished and rebuilt to c u r r e n t s t a n - obtained from the Valuation Department
dards. It is also c o n c e i v a b l e that the for C h r i s t c h u r c h , N e l s o n , W e l l i n g t o n / H u t t ,
c o s t of r e s t o r i n g m o d e r a t e l y to l i g h t l y W a n g a n u i , P a l m e r s t o n N o r t h , H a s t i n g s and
d a m a g e d b u i l d i n g s to their p r e - e a r t h q u a k e Napier cities.
state without "betterment" (2) could
e a s i l y e x c e e d the indemnity v a l u e of the The above cities were used as
building. C o n s e q u e n t l y the e s t i m a t e s of m o d e l s for other c i t i e s w i t h i n the e a r t h -
d a m a g e c o m p u t e d in this study are likely q u a k e a f f e c t e d a r e a for w h i c h n o c o m p u t e r
to be low. tape listings w e r e o b t a i n e d . For e x a m p l e ,
New P l y m o u t h city w a s c o n s i d e r e d to have
a s i m i l a r d i s t r i b u t i o n of b u i l d i n g types
3.4.3 Building Contents as W a n g a n u i city and a d j u s t m e n t to b u i l d -
ing loss was m a d e to t a k e a c c o u n t of the
It is a p p r e c i a t e d t h a t , e s p e c i a l l y v a r i a t i o n in t o t a l b u i l d i n g v a l u e b e t w e e n
for an older b u i l d i n g , the v a l u e of its the two c i t i e s . The a d d i t i o n a l b u i l d i n g s
c o n t e n t s could be of the same o r d e r as o u t s i d e the CBD of a city w e r e assumed
the m a r k e t value of the b u i l d i n g . The to suffer the. same a v e r a g e loss per b u i l d -
study group was u n a b l e to find s i g n i f i c a n t ing as those in the C B D . The total b u i l d -
p u b l i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n on the r e l a t i o n s h i p ing v a l u e for e a c h city w a s o b t a i n e d from
b e t w e e n d a m a g e to c o n t e n t s and m o d i f i e d Valuation Department statistics.
Mercalli intensity.
A l s o o b t a i n e d w a s the total v a l u e
M u n i c h Re (13) suggests that t h e r e of non-housing buildings in towns of
is a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the loss borough status. The m a j o r i t y of the b u i l d -
e s t i m a t e of a b u i l d i n g and the loss of ings in these b o r o u g h s w e r e a s s u m e d to
b u i l d i n g c o n t e n t s as shown in T a b l e 1 . be of older c o n s t r u c t i o n than typically
H o w e v e r , other studies have taken a m u c h occurs in the larger cities where re-
coarser estimate of contents loss. In development of the urban areas has
the a b s e n c e of data from a c t u a l earth- o c c u r r e d on a m o r e f r e q u e n t b a s i s . The
q u a k e s , the study group o b t a i n e d o p i n i o n s ratio of:
of e x p e c t e d contents loss from two leading
insurance companies and a leading loss total b u i l d i n g loss
adjuster. Based on these opinions, it total b u i l d i n g v a l u e
w a s d e c i d e d to use an e s t i m a t e of c o n t e n t s
loss in the case of h o u s i n g equal to o n e - as d e t e r m i n e d for W a n g a n u i city w a s used
third of the h o u s i n g l o s s . In the case to r e p r e s e n t the p r o p o r t i o n of b u i l d i n g
of o t h e r b u i l d i n g s , 60 p e r c e n t of b u i l d i n g loss expected in these smaller urban
d a m a g e w a s used as an e s t i m a t e of c o n t e n t s c e n t r e s for the r e s p e c t i v e i n t e n s i t y of
loss. T h i s was based on further c o n s i - ground shaking d e t e r m i n e d in any of the
deration (14) of data used in r e f e r e n c e four s c e n a r i o e v e n t s .
(3) .
F i g u r e 5 shows the form of c e n t r a l
b u i l d i n g data u s e d for the m a j o r urban
3.5 C o m p u t a t i o n of D a m a g e Costs areas. The record for each building
c o n t a i n s m a i n l y d a t a o b t a i n e d from V a l u a -
3.5.1 Valuation Department Data tion D e p a r t m e n t land u s e data t a p e s : the
street n u m b e r , s t r e e t n a m e , site c o v e r ,
The housing and o t h e r buildings floor area, capital v a l u e , land value,
data used in this study w a s o b t a i n e d from u s e , age and c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l . For
Valuation Department information using the Wellington/Hutt metropolitan area,
two different methods. microzone data and, where known, the
W e l l i n g t o n City C o u n c i l b u i l d i n g c l a s s i f i -
For h o u s i n g , a list of the local c a t i o n has b e e n a d d e d . This information
a u t h o r i t i e s w i t h i n the area a f f e c t e d by was used to determine the structural
e a r t h q u a k e intensity of MM V I I and g r e a t e r m a t e r i a l and age of c o n s t r u c t i o n for e a c h
w a s c o m p i l e d to cover all the four e v e n t s . building.
F o r the c i t i e s , b o r o u g h s and c o u n t i e s the
total improved v a l u e of all the r e s i d e n -
tial d w e l l i n g s w a s o b t a i n e d u s i n g V a l u a - 3.5.2 Computation
tion D e p a r t m e n t s t a t i s t i c s . The l a t i t u d e s
and longitudes of the local authority The isoseismals for the four
centres were used to coordinate their scenario events (Figure 1 ) i n d i c a t e t h e
p o s i t i o n s and this i n f o r m a t i o n w a s stored v a r i o u s MM i n t e n s i t i e s a f f e c t i n g any p a r t i -
o n the c o m p u t e r d a t a s e t a l o n g w i t h the cular urban centre.
associated improved v a l u e s and a f a c t o r
for u p d a t i n g these v a l u e s to M a r c h 1 9 8 3 . T h e MDR v a l u e for the a p p r o p r i a t e
Coordinate sets d e f i n i n g all the e l l i p - MM i n t e n s i t y w a s s e l e c t e d and a c o m p u t e r
tical isoseismals for the four events p r o g r a m w a s used to sort o u t b u i l d i n g c o n -
(Figure 1 ) were c o m p a r e d w i t h locations s t r u c t i o n , m i c r o z o n e a r e a and age c a t e g o r y
of h o u s i n g g r o u p s in t u r n and the h o u s i n g before computing the e x p e c t e d loss for
d a t a r e c o r d s thus a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p p r o - each building. The loss w a s calculated
priate MM intensities. The expected as the p r o d u c t of MDR and the d i f f e r e n c e
h o u s i n g l o s s for each seismic e v e n t w a s b e t w e e n capital v a l u e and land v a l u e for
t h e n c a l c u l a t e d using the MDR v a l u e for each b u i l d i n g w h e r e the v a l u e w a s a d j u s t e d
t h e r e s p e c t i v e MM i n t e n s i t i e s . to M a r c h 1983. The values were summed
to give a total e x p e c t e d b u i l d i n g loss
In the case of buildings other for each u r b a n a r e a , and f i n a l l y for e a c h
222

event. costs due to inflated rates for

r e p a i r w h i c h may apply a f t e r a m a j o r
Government-owned buildings are disaster
not a c h a r g e on the E a r t h q u a k e and War
D a m a g e C o m m i s s i o n and so w e r e separated damage to buried building services
from the c o m p u t e r l i s t i n g s . likely cost of i m p r o v e m e n t s in excess
of b a s i c repair costs
i n d i r e c t costs to the c o m m u n i t y such
3.6 S o u r c e s of Error
as loss of p r o d u c t i v i t y .
T h e p r i n c i p a l s o u r c e of doubt in
the r e s u l t s of the study w e r e c o n s i d e r e d 5.3 U n t i l such time as a n o t h e r m a j o r
to be the e r r o r in the m e a n d a m a g e r a t i o e a r t h q u a k e c a u s e s d a m a g e to a N e w Zealand
versus Mercalli intensity relationships. u r b a n c e n t r e , d a m a g e ratios will need to
T h i s w a s t a k e n into a c c o u n t in the r a n g e be o b t a i n e d from o v e r s e a s s t u d i e s . This
of building losses calculated which is e x p e c t e d to cause s i g n i f i c a n t errors
a l l o w e d for ± o n e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n in where construction standards vary greatly
the e s t i m a t i o n of t h e s e f a c t o r s . Other w i t h t h o s e a p p l y i n g in N e w Z e a l a n d .
sources of error w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e d to the
u n c e r t a i n t y of the final r e s u l t i n c l u d e d : 5.4 The lack of data on the damage
r a t i o s of b u i l d i n g s of m o d e r n c o n s t r u c t i o n
a s s e s s m e n t of d i s t r i b u t i o n of earth- and building contents in g e n e r a l , pre-
quake intensities sented a p r o b l e m for the study g r o u p and
w o u l d a f f e c t the r e l i a b i l i t y of the loss
the limited n u m b e r of b u i l d i n g classes study.
used in the study
a s s e s s m e n t of m a r k e t values
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
indemnity values (in this study
a s s u m e d e q u a l to m a r k e t v a l u e ) The authors gratefully acknowledge
a s s e s s m e n t of d a m a g e to c o n t e n t s . the p e r m i s s i o n of the E a r t h q u a k e and W a r
Damage Commission and the Commissioner
T h e s e s o u r c e s a r e d i f f i c u l t to q u a n t i f y of Works to publish this paper. The
and no e s t i m a t i o n h a s b e e n m a d e of the members of the study group were D L
e r r o r r e s u l t i n g from them. Hutchison, D J Dowrick, A K Perry, D J
D a r w i n , C W M o u a t and G R B i r s s .

4. R E S U L T S OF STUDY
7. REFERENCES
T h e r e s u l t s of b u i l d i n g plus c o n -
t e n t s loss a r e g i v e n in T a b l e 2 as r e l a - (1) D a r w i n D J, "Earthquake Hazard
tive values within the affected areas R e d u c t i o n in W e l l i n g t o n " . D e p a r t m e n t of
i n d i c a t e d in F i g u r e 1 . The r a n g e of loss Civil E n g i n e e r i n g , University of C a n t e r -
shown is plus or minus one standard bury . R e p o r t No 80/1 - March 1 9 8 0 .
d e v i a t i o n , t h a t i s , t h e r e is a p r o b a b i l i t y
of approximately two-thirds that the (2) D o w r i c k D J, "An E a r t h q u a k e C a t a s -
a c t u a l loss lies w i t h i n the listed r a n g e . t r o p h e D a m a g e A s s e s s m e n t Model w i t h P a r t i -
The following observations can be made cular R e f e r e n c e to Central New Z e a l a n d " .
from c o n s i d e r a t i o n of T a b l e 2: Proc Third South Pacific R e g i o n a l Con-
ference on Earthquake Engineering, Mav
The h i g h e s t p e r c e n t a g e d a m a g e of the 1 979.
four scenario events, which occurs
in e v e n t 3 (Figure 1 ) , r e s u l t s in the (3) Smith W D and Berryman K R,
highest relative value of damage. "Revised E s t i m a t e s of Seismic H a z a r d in
This event subj e c t s buildings from New Zealand". Bulletin New Zealand
T a u r a n g a in the n o r t h to W e s t p o r t in N a t i o n a l S o c i e t y for E a r t h q u a k e E n g i n e e r -
the s o u t h to i n t e n s i t i e s of MM V I I ing. Vol 1 6 , No 4, December 1 9 8 3 .
or greater. The epicentre of the
e v e n t is in an area w h e r e the b u i l d i n g (4) Smith W D, "Spatial D i s t r i b u t i o n
c o n c e n t r a t i o n is g r e a t e s t . of Felt I n t e n s i t i e s of New Zealand E a r t h -
quakes" . New Zealand Journal G e o l o g y and
In the s c e n a r i o a r e a s the total v a l u e Geophysics. Vol 2 1 , No 3, 1 9 7 8 .
of housing was always greater than
the t o t a l b u i l d i n g value. However, (5) "Microzoning for E a r t h q u a k e E f f e c t s
the h o u s i n g loss w a s t y p i c a l l y around in W e l l i n g t o n " . DSIR B u l l e t i n 21 3 , 1 974 .
o n e - t h i r d of the v a l u e of the b u i l d i n g
loss. (6) B e r r y m a n K R, A personal communi-
cation .

(7) Sherburd J E, "The Settlement

5. DISCUSSION
of Insurance Claims Following a Large
5.1 The m e t h o d o l o g y p r o v i d e s a m e a n s Earthquake". Large Earthquakes in New
by w h i c h a r a n g e of loss v a l u e s can be Zealand. R o y a l Society N e w Zealand. Mis-
calculated for a given earthquake. It c e l l a n e o u s , S e r i e s 5, 1 9 8 1 .
is a r e f i n e m e n t of m e t h o d s used by p r e -
vious researchers. (8) W h i t m a n R V, "Damage P r o b a b i l i t y
M a t r i c e s for P r o t o t y p e B u i l d i n g s " . Seis-
5.2 The study did not take into mic D e s i g n D e c i s i o n A n a l y s i s . Report No
8 . M a s s a c h u s e t t s Institute of T e c h n o l o g y ,
a c c o u n t the following:
1 973.
 223

(9) Cooney R C and F o w k e s A H R, "New

Zealand H o u s e s in E a r t h q u a k e s - W h a t W i l l
Happen?" Large E a r t h q u a k e s in N e w Zealand
R o y a l Society New Zealand. Miscellaneous.
S e r i e s 5, 1 9 8 1 .

(10) MP 1 2 : 1 9 6 5 , C o m m e n t a r y on Chapter
8 of N Z S S 1 9 0 0 .

(11) W h i t m a n R V, Hong S T and Reed

J W, "Optimum Seismic Protection and
Building Damage Statistics". Seismic
Design Decision Analysis. R e p o r t No 7.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
1 973 .

(12) Steinbrugge K V, "Earthquake

Disaster Response Planning: An Engineer-
ing Overview". Bulletin New Zealand
N a t i o n a l Society for E a r t h q u a k e E n g i n e e r -
ing, Vol 8, No 2, June 1 9 7 5 .

(13) Munich Re, "Handbook to World

M a p of N a t u r a l H a z a r d s " . Munich Reinsur-
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(14) Dowrick D J. A personal communi-

cation .

TABLE 1

MUNICH RE E S T I M A T E OF C O N T E N T S LOSS

MM Intensity VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

P r o p o r t i o n of
1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 4/ 9/
Building Loss '5 M '3 '2 '3 f
S '10

TABLE 2

R E L A T I V E V A L U E S OF E S T I M A T E D L O S S FOR
BUILDINGS AND CONTENTS

Cat e g o r y of Loss Range

Event • 1 2 3 4
M M I X in M M I X in M M X in M M X in
Wellington Wellington Wellington Wellington
f

Houses 1.4 to 2.1 1.0 to 2.5 1.9 to 2.9 1.6 to 2.4

Other Buildings 3.1 to 7.0 2.2 to 4.9 5.6 to 10.1 4.7 to 8.0

Total 4.5 to 9.1 3.2 to 6.4 7.5 to 13.0 6.3 to 10.4