120MSE/7

MAY 2014

Coventry University

Faculty of Engineering and Computing

120MSE

Statistics
Instructions to candidates

Time allowed: 3 Hours

Answer all questions

Questions 1-3 each carry 12 marks

Questions 4-7 each carry 16 marks.

For this examination you will be supplied with the following:

Statistical Formulae (attached)

Statistical Tables (attached)

IMPORTANT: You may take this question paper away at the end of the
examination. Please keep it in a safe place for future reference.

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All questions relate to a GCSE Maths class taught by Mrs A in a public school last year.

Use a 5% significance level in any tests.

1. (a) The table below summarises the marks achieved by students in Mrs A’s class in
their ‘real’ GCSE Maths and also in the ‘mock’ GCSE exam that they sat after
Christmas.

Variable Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum

mock 79.11 11.55 45.00 74.25 83.00 86.75 95.00
real 91.47 4.61 83.00 89.00 92.00 94.00 99.00

Compare and contrast the two sets of data. [6 marks]

(b) Below is a chart of the Spring Term absence record of students in Mrs A’s class.

Criticise the construction of this chart. [6 marks]

2. The table below shows a comparison of GCSE Maths results of four classes.

No. of students Achieved Grade A or below Achieved Grade A*

Mrs A’s Class 4 24
Mr F’s Class 9 20
Dr P’s Class 15 14
Miss G’s Class 9 21

(a) Use an appropriate test to decide whether there are significant differences in
achievement between classes. [9 marks]
(b) Estimate the P-value of your test and explain what it means. [3 marks]

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3. The Spring Term attendance record of students in this class is shown below

Absences 0 1 2 3 or more Total

No. of students 10 7 8 3 28

(a) Calculate the number of students expected to be absent on 0, 1, 2,

or 3 or more occasions assuming a Poisson distribution with
mean 1.5. [5 marks]
(b) Hence use an appropriate test to determine whether the data do
follow a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5. [5 marks]
(c) What does a Poisson distribution assume in this situation?
Suggest a reason why the assumption(s) might not be valid in this
situation. [2 marks]

4. Mrs A has been comparing notes with her sister Mrs B who teaches Maths in a
state secondary school. The table below summarises the GCSE Maths results in
their respective schools last year:

Mean S.D.
Mrs A’s school 86 4
Mrs B’s school 61 12

You may assume that marks within each school are Normally distributed.

(a) What is the probability that a student in Mrs B’s school achieved a
mark less than 78? [3 marks]

(b) What is the probability that a student in Mrs A’s school achieved a
mark less than 78? [2 marks]

(c) If two of last year’s students are chosen at random, one from each
school, what is the probability that the student from Mrs B’s school
achieved a mark greater than the student from Mrs A’s school? [5 marks]

(d) If four of last year’s students are chosen at random, two from each
school, what is the probability that the average of the marks achieved
by the two students from Mrs B’s school is greater than the
average of the marks achieved by the two students from Mrs A’s
school? [6 marks]

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5. Of the 116 students in this year group, 68% achieved an A* grade in GCSE Maths.

(a) Professor J met 7 members of this year group at a University Open Day.
What is the probability that:

(i) exactly 6 of them achieved an A* grade in GCSE Maths? [3 marks]

(ii) at least 6 of them achieved an A* grade in GCSE Maths? [3 marks]

(b) The school’s website claims that two-thirds of their students achieve
an A* grade in GCSE Maths. Use an appropriate test to decide
whether the results from this year group differ significantly from
this claim. Use a 5% significance level and show full details of
your test. [5 marks]

(c) Assuming this year’s results to be a random sample of all years,

calculate a 95% confidence interval for the true percentage of students
at this school who achieve an A* grade in GCSE Maths. [5 marks]

6. Mrs A is interested in being able to predict a student’s ‘real’ GCSE mark from their
‘mock’ exam mark. She carries out an analysis in Minitab on the 19 students for
which she has ‘real’ exam marks. Use the output below to answer the following
questions.
(a) Interpret the meaning of the constant coefficient in this context. [2 marks]
(b) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the true constant
coefficient. [4 marks]
(c) Interpret the value of R-sq in this context. [2 marks]
(d) Explain the purpose of the residual plot and state what can be
concluded from it here. [3 marks]
(e) The output includes a prediction for the real exam mark of Jimmy,
who was ill during the real exam. Deduce what mark Jimmy scored
in the mock exam and give a 95% interval estimate for his real exam
mark. [3 marks]
(f) Give two reasons why your estimate in (e) may be unreliable. [2 marks]

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MINITAB Output for Question 6

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 46.54 10.28 4.53 0.000
mock 0.5377 0.1226 4.38 0.000

S = 3.25041 R-Sq = 53.1%

Predicted Values for New Observations

New Obs Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI
1 76.645 3.463 (69.339, 83.952) (66.624, 86.666)XX

Residuals Versus mock exam mark

(response is real)
7.5

5.0

2.5
Residual

0.0

-2.5

-5.0
70 75 80 85 90 95
mock exam mark

7. All the students in the class were invited to enter for the Additional Maths
qualification, but only 15 chose to do so. Mrs A is interested to know whether their
decision was influenced by their mock exam mark. Extracts from a Minitab analysis
that she conducted are shown below.

AddMaths N Mean StDev

No 13 71.80 12.6
Yes 15 85.47 5.26

Difference = mu (No) - mu (Yes)

T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -3.65
P-Value = 0.002 DF = 15

(a) Use an appropriate test to show that the standard deviations of the
two groups differ significantly. [4 marks]
(b) Explain why there are not 26 degrees of freedom. [1 mark]
(c) Show how the T-Value was calculated. [4 marks]
(d) State the hypotheses being tested and what conclusion can be
drawn from the test. [3 marks]
(e) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference in mean
mark between those who did/did not choose Add Maths. [4 marks]

oooOooo

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120MSE STATISTICS FORMULAE

2
s =  x  x 
2

sxy =  x  x  y  y  Pooled s =
n1  1s12  n2  1s22
n 1 n 1 n1  n2  2

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)

Binomial P(X=x) = nCx px(1-p)n-x  = np 2 = np(1-p)
Poisson P(X=x) = xe-/x! = 2 = 
 = E(X) =  x P(X=x) =  x f(x) dx 2 = V(X) = E(X2) – 2
E(aX + bY + c) = a E(X) + b E(Y) + c
V(aX + bY + c) = a2 V(X) + b2 V(Y) provided X, Y are independent

Quantity Point Estimate Standard Error

 x s / √n
1 – 2
2 2
X1 - X 2 s1 s
 2
n1 n 2

p f = X/n f(1 f)
n

p1 – p2 f1 – f2 f1 (1  f1 ) f 2 (1  f 2 )

n1 n2

 a= y  bx s
1

x2
n (n  1)s 2x

 s xy s
1
b= (n  1)s 2x
s 2x
Mean Y at x=x0 a + b x0 1 (x 0 - x) 2
s 
n (n  1)s 2x

Individual Y at x=x0 a + b x0 1 (x 0 - x) 2
s 1 
n (n  1)s 2x

  y  yˆ    y  yˆ 
2 2
s xy
2 1  s=
 y  y
r= r =
n2
2
sxs y

(n  1)s 2 (O  E) 2 s12
 
2
 
2
F 2
2 E s2

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Normal Distribution Tables

11.51% 11.51%

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641
0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
3.5 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

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t-Distribution Tables

 = degrees of freedom

 = upper tail probability

e.g. for 95% confidence interval

use  = 0.025

 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0005

 1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 318.309 636.619
2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.327 31.599
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.215 12.924
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173 8.610
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893 6.869
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208 5.959
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.785 5.408
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 4.501 5.041
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.297 4.781
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.144 4.587
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.025 4.437
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.930 4.318
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852 4.221
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.787 4.140
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.733 4.073
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.686 4.015
17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.646 3.965
18 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.610 3.922
19 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.579 3.883
20 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.552 3.850
21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.527 3.819
22 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.505 3.792
23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.485 3.768
24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.467 3.745
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.450 3.725
26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.435 3.707
27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.421 3.690
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.408 3.674
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.396 3.659
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.385 3.646
40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.307 3.551
60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.232 3.460
120 1.289 1.658 1.980 2.358 2.617 3.160 3.373
∞ 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.090 3.291 z-values

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Chi-squared Distribution Tables

 = degrees of freedom

 = upper tail probability

e.g. for 95% confidence interval use  = 0.975 and 0.025

 0.995 0.99 0.975 0.95 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005

 1 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 3.841 5.024 6.635 7.879
2 0.010 0.020 0.051 0.103 5.991 7.378 9.210 10.597
3 0.072 0.115 0.216 0.352 7.815 9.348 11.345 12.838
4 0.207 0.297 0.484 0.711 9.488 11.143 13.277 14.860
5 0.412 0.554 0.831 1.145 11.070 12.833 15.086 16.750
6 0.676 0.872 1.237 1.635 12.592 14.449 16.812 18.548
7 0.989 1.239 1.690 2.167 14.067 16.013 18.475 20.278
8 1.344 1.646 2.180 2.733 15.507 17.535 20.090 21.955
9 1.735 2.088 2.700 3.325 16.919 19.023 21.666 23.589
10 2.156 2.558 3.247 3.940 18.307 20.483 23.209 25.188
11 2.603 3.053 3.816 4.575 19.675 21.920 24.725 26.757
12 3.074 3.571 4.404 5.226 21.026 23.337 26.217 28.300
13 3.565 4.107 5.009 5.892 22.362 24.736 27.688 29.819
14 4.075 4.660 5.629 6.571 23.685 26.119 29.141 31.319
15 4.601 5.229 6.262 7.261 24.996 27.488 30.578 32.801
16 5.142 5.812 6.908 7.962 26.296 28.845 32.000 34.267
17 5.697 6.408 7.564 8.672 27.587 30.191 33.409 35.718
18 6.265 7.015 8.231 9.390 28.869 31.526 34.805 37.156
19 6.844 7.633 8.907 10.117 30.144 32.852 36.191 38.582
20 7.434 8.260 9.591 10.851 31.410 34.170 37.566 39.997
21 8.034 8.897 10.283 11.591 32.671 35.479 38.932 41.401
22 8.643 9.542 10.982 12.338 33.924 36.781 40.289 42.796
23 9.260 10.196 11.689 13.091 35.172 38.076 41.638 44.181
24 9.886 10.856 12.401 13.848 36.415 39.364 42.980 45.559
25 10.520 11.524 13.120 14.611 37.652 40.646 44.314 46.928
26 11.160 12.198 13.844 15.379 38.885 41.923 45.642 48.290
27 11.808 12.879 14.573 16.151 40.113 43.195 46.963 49.645
28 12.461 13.565 15.308 16.928 41.337 44.461 48.278 50.993
29 13.121 14.256 16.047 17.708 42.557 45.722 49.588 52.336
30 13.787 14.953 16.791 18.493 43.773 46.979 50.892 53.672
40 20.707 22.164 24.433 26.509 55.758 59.342 63.691 66.766
60 35.534 37.485 40.482 43.188 79.082 83.298 88.379 91.952
120 83.852 86.923 91.573 95.705 146.567 152.211 158.950 163.648
500 422.303 429.388 439.936 449.147 553.127 563.852 576.493 585.207

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F- Distribution Tables
 = degrees of freedom in the numerator
 = degrees of freedom in the denominator
 = upper tail probability

 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 30 
1 161.4 199.5 215.7 224.6 230.2 234.0 238.9 241.9 250.1 5.0%
1 647.8 799.5 864.2 899.6 921.8 937.1 956.7 968.6 1001.4 2.5%
1 4052 4999 5403 5625 5764 5859 5981 6056 6260.6 1.0%
1 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 >9999 0.1%
2 18.51 19.00 19.16 19.25 19.30 19.33 19.37 19.40 8.62 5.0%
2 38.51 39.00 39.17 39.25 39.30 39.33 39.37 39.40 14.08 2.5%
2 98.50 99.00 99.17 99.25 99.30 99.33 99.37 99.40 26.50 1.0%
2 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 125.45 0.1%
3 10.13 9.55 9.28 9.12 9.01 8.94 8.85 8.79 5.75 5.0%
3 17.44 16.04 15.44 15.10 14.88 14.73 14.54 14.42 8.46 2.5%
3 34.12 30.82 29.46 28.71 28.24 27.91 27.49 27.23 13.84 1.0%
3 167.0 148.5 141.1 137.1 134.6 132.8 130.6 129.2 45.43 0.1%
4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39 6.26 6.16 6.04 5.96 4.50 5.0%
4 12.22 10.65 9.98 9.60 9.36 9.20 8.98 8.84 6.23 2.5%
4 21.20 18.00 16.69 15.98 15.52 15.21 14.80 14.55 9.38 1.0%
4 74.14 61.25 56.18 53.44 51.71 50.53 49.00 48.05 24.87 0.1%
5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19 5.05 4.95 4.82 4.74 3.81 5.0%
5 10.01 8.43 7.76 7.39 7.15 6.98 6.76 6.62 5.07 2.5%
5 16.26 13.27 12.06 11.39 10.97 10.67 10.29 10.05 7.23 1.0%
5 47.18 37.12 33.20 31.09 29.75 28.83 27.65 26.92 16.67 0.1%
6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53 4.39 4.28 4.15 4.06 3.38 5.0%
6 8.81 7.26 6.60 6.23 5.99 5.82 5.60 5.46 4.36 2.5%
6 13.75 10.92 9.78 9.15 8.75 8.47 8.10 7.87 5.99 1.0%
6 35.51 27.00 23.70 21.92 20.80 20.03 19.03 18.41 12.53 0.1%
7 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12 3.97 3.87 3.73 3.64 3.08 5.0%
7 8.07 6.54 5.89 5.52 5.29 5.12 4.90 4.76 3.89 2.5%
7 12.25 9.55 8.45 7.85 7.46 7.19 6.84 6.62 5.20 1.0%
7 29.25 21.69 18.77 17.20 16.21 15.52 14.63 14.08 10.11 0.1%
8 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84 3.69 3.58 3.44 3.35 2.86 5.0%
8 7.57 6.06 5.42 5.05 4.82 4.65 4.43 4.30 3.56 2.5%
8 11.26 8.65 7.59 7.01 6.63 6.37 6.03 5.81 4.65 1.0%
8 25.41 18.49 15.83 14.39 13.48 12.86 12.05 11.54 8.55 0.1%
9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63 3.48 3.37 3.23 3.14 2.70 5.0%
9 7.21 5.71 5.08 4.72 4.48 4.32 4.10 3.96 3.31 2.5%
9 10.56 8.02 6.99 6.42 6.06 5.80 5.47 5.26 4.25 1.0%
9 22.86 16.39 13.90 12.56 11.71 11.13 10.37 9.89 7.47 0.1%
10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48 3.33 3.22 3.07 2.98 8.62 5.0%
10 6.94 5.46 4.83 4.47 4.24 4.07 3.85 3.72 14.08 2.5%
10 10.04 7.56 6.55 5.99 5.64 5.39 5.06 4.85 26.50 1.0%
10 21.04 14.91 12.55 11.28 10.48 9.93 9.20 8.75 125.45 0.1%
30 3.84 3.00 2.60 2.37 2.21 2.10 1.94 1.83 1.84 5.0%
30 5.02 3.69 3.12 2.79 2.57 2.41 2.19 2.05 2.07 2.5%
30 6.64 4.61 3.78 3.32 3.02 2.80 2.51 2.32 2.39 1.0%
30 10.83 6.91 5.42 4.62 4.10 3.74 3.27 2.96 3.22 0.1%

End

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