THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TERAI

Neeraj Chatterji1 and Ranajit Gupta2

1 2

Student and Researcher, Interdesign, 220/2 Panditia Road Extn., Kolkata 700 029,India. Architect, Engineer and Chief Consultant, Interdesign, 220/2 Panditia Road Extn., Kolkata 700 029,India.

1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is a recurring phenomenon in the long evolutionary cycle of planet Earth and ours has been fortunately a benign period between the glacials. The last glaciations occurred in the Pleistocene epoch period began about 70,000 and ended between 10,000 and 15,000 before present and since then, we are heading for an inter-glacial period, now egged on unfortunately by global warming. It is however clear, these periods of mild/benign climate are more of an exception rather than the rule. In the coming eons, humans would have to adjust themselves to more rigorous times, recasting, new objectives and framing new policies of survival.

Figure 1: Average ice extent from 1979-2003

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING-INTERGLACIAL The geological interval of warmer global average temperature brings about major changes that alter ecosystems and biospheres and can affect all human activities very considerably. The changes in this interglacial would mean a greater frequency of extreme events like cyclones etc. with unprecedented precipitation and heat cycle. The unlocking of the ice cover in the poles and in the mountains leads to higher ocean levels and an obvious invasion of the sea and back waters. Moreover, the imbalance in temperatures affects sea water temperatures and the El Nino phenomenon of weak monsoon may become a rule rather than a seven-eight years singular phenomenon. The terai region of North India has a peculiar connection to both snow cover and the sea, the monsoon being regulated by the Himalayan snow line and temperatures in the Indian/Pacific Ocean. Obviously the disturbance in the Hadley cell a key parameter in the monsoons regularity would mean unpredictable weather patterns and unreliable rainfall. To make the situation worse, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is proving to be another spoiler, extracting moisture of the monsoon in its dry anticyclone phase and contributing to torrential rains in its wet cyclonic phase. Unfortunately it does not obey the regulations of the advancing and retreating monsoonal system. Here again the problem is

Figure 2: Hadley cell

Figure 3: MaddenJulian Oscillation

not of the quantity of the rainfall but its unregulated pattern. The monsoon is the one source of reliable water supply in the region and its vagaries would push the terai and the sub continent into dire straits. The South-West monsoon will be uncertain and a need for harnessing the maximum possible benefits during adversity would become our prime concern.

Figure 4: El Nino

3. THE TERAI REGION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The Terai region of South Asia has a close symbiotic relation with the S-W monsoon system and, vagaries in the precipitation would mean a substantial change in ecosystems and biospheres. The receding Himalayan snow line would push the coniferous forests upwards and strain the survival of the deciduous forests below. A shift of biosphere upwards (altitude) can therefore be expected along with large scale erosion and loss of forest cover. The Himalayan foothills are a microcosm of the sub-continents problem, in tune with the rising population, critical climate changes and issues in food production. The monsoon clouds that hit this region are seeded historically by the riverine forests. (Mangrove of the Sunderban regions and now the defunct middle Indian forests along with the deciduous and coniferous jungles of the terai) The human settlements and agricultural invasion has taken a heavy toll on these seeding forests, thus also the capability of the water retention during monsoonal rains. The weakened monsoon is now expected to become even weaker. The snow fed North Indian Rivers like Ganges, Bramhaputra, that are the life line of the subcontinent are perennial but they might soon become a seasonal phenomenon like the Tapti or the Godavari. This would be the death knell for agricultural enterprise in the Indo-Gangetic food basket. We are now faced with a situation where the change of climate would affect rainfall quantum, intensity and cycle, while the mitigating aspects of the forest - terrain, albedo, and erosion are simply not working for us.

Figure 5: The climatic system

Figure 6: Interrelationship chart

The loss of coastal land is a kind of retreat of human settlements inland, and resource

pressure in the Terai region will soon be felt. The declining natural resources would mean a change in agro economic practices as also a rethinking of urban sprawl and settlement density Uncertain rainfall The retreat of the Himalayan snowline would events Increase in the extreme uncover vulnerable slopes, and unless quick Absence of mitigating factors remedies are taken large scale land slides, erosion and silt deposition mightbiosphere the Shift of disrupt entire mountain draining/riverine system. Loss of land gains of sea The invasion of the sea and the lack of steady Increase in disasters/landslides periodic rainfall affect freshwater supplies and Measures land and this looming water management ofproblem resources would have a direct bearing on agriculture and human settlements. 4. THE TERAI REGION: GEOLOGY AND WATER CYCLE The Himalayan system is mostly late tertiary and the Terai region consists of foothills with vulnerable shale formations, still recent and thus open to erosion and landslides. Heavy undergrowth and forests do help in holding back these folded mountain systems but even then they are unstable. The tea gardens of the Terai are happily a source of defense against natural erosion, but there excellent drainage is not being mobilized for water management. The riverine system collecting the rainfall and snow melt are more or less channeled in the upper reaches washing down boulders and silt. The same tributaries join up near the foothills to form the vast alluvial riverine plains that meander, floods and change course quite regularly. The greatest danger of climate change is factoring torrential rainfall, long dry spells and disappearing snow with stream management. Even today, typhoons and low pressure systems regularly cause landslide and sediment accumulation, leading to uncertainties in the water flow. This problem would be crucial both in the upper reaches as well as the plains. The Terai although well forested is in dire need of greater foliage cover and upper stream management. Only then could the difficulties of sporadic rainfall etc. can be overcome through wise storage and water release. The cascading system of drainage/erosion could completely restructure land use patterns and water management in the Terai. The loss of forest cover and landslides etc. could cause further dry spells, increasing snow melt creating more floods, sedimentation

Figure 7 and 8: The riverine system

downstream, causing more disaster in and endangering agricultural Preservation of the tea garden is alternative and any encroachment human settlements a danger.

the plains pursuits. a viable of large

I) Present Climate system heading for a change, similar to the archaic (prehistoric) climatic systems 250,000 to 300,000 years ago. II) Interglacial causing: Pressure systems disturbances Rise in water levels Change in climate and heat cycles Reduction in settlement areas Reduction in agricultural land Increase in wetlands

5. MITIGATION FAILURES

The large tracts of forests in Sunderbans, the terai region and middle India which once played a role in moderating extreme climatic events have all but disappeared. This has led to more unpredictable monsoons and extreme water related problems in these inland regions. The human land use pattern (both agro and urban) has significantly changed the feature of the top soil and its Albedo. Low protection levels have helped in peeling of top soil (erosion) and hastening soil fatigue.

6. ISSUES CONFRONTING THE FUTURE OF THE TERAI

The gradual ingress of the sea will reduce land to sea ratio altering the future land use pattern. The reduction in the arable land will have an impact on the agricultural output but a growing population will demand an increase in the production, which becomes impossible under a malignant climate. An alternative to present agro activities and output is the shifting from land to the sea namely utilizing water based resources: pisciculture, aquaculture. The issues that plague the region: 1. Major land use problems. 2. Social / political problems leading to conflicts.

3.
Unfulfilled objectives Forests have to be protected.

Present agricultural practice may cause long term problems Urban and semi-urban sprawl will have to end

Compact endeavors

land

use/new

More innovative lifestyles and economic activities.

In many cases the settlements whose land use and economic efficiency is low or negative along with wasteful practices, need to be banned. A resettlement plan in the upper reaches would demand forest based economics exploiting orchards, apiaries, herbariums and timber. Economic forestry is not a panacea per se but with inbuilt safeguards (Bio diversity) can Figure 9: A gradual retreat of coastal and mountain frontier release a large, land dominated agricultural ecosystems population.

7. WATER MANAGEMENT AND STREAM CONTROL

With the snow line moving up, the forestry system in the Terai (deciduous and coniferous) will undergo transformation along with the entire existing biosphere. The glacier fed rivers will enter dry spells and may run completely dry occasionally, leading to seasonal nature of these rivers. Water storage and recharge not only provides a solution for curtailing soil erosion but also presents potential water solutions. The recovery of forestation, wise water management and adaptive agricultural practices, could give a new lease of life to the region as well as a substantial part of the subcontinent. One of the main features of water management and storage here is the use of mini hydel power generation. This would provide much needed energy to the region while encouraging cottage and small industries in the hills. The existing Tea industry reeling under power shortage would benefit. A large shift from agriculture to secondary and tertiary activities can be expected and encouraged. In this regard, it is of utmost importance that Tea Gardens shift to organic mode and its well drained plantations provide a source of water storage in the immediate vicinity. Use of pesticide etc. can only contaminate a ready source of water. Introspection into the problems of the Terai in face of climatic change reveals a microcosm of a larger global issue of adopting ourselves to
Figure 11: Water management system.

Figure 10: Water collection system through Hydrological cycle.

more difficult environments and times. The problems facing the people of Jalpaiguri, India are not very different and a search for solutions here may revolutionize developments elsewhere in the region.

8. THE TONLE SAP ECOSYSTEM - AN EXAMPLE

The Tonle Sap is the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. A unique hydrological phenomenon resulting from the link with the Mekong causes seasonal inundation of a vast floodplain around the lake. Using natural flooding as a method of rejuvenating the soil by the deposition of silt, it provides agricultural as well as aquatic productivity. Adopting the management lessons of overflow water

The Tonle Sap is an ecosystem and biosphere created successfully in the lower Mekong plain.

The terai system in the foothills would be a little more complex with its cascading system, optimizing land and water use across a spectrum of biospheres each interdependent and symbiotically related.

Figure 12: Tonle Sap flood plain.

Forest Management is a corollary of good hydrology and although climate change might jeopardize the coniferous cover in the higher reaches, it is possible to sustain forest cover and in fact encourage economic forestry if proper hydrological practices are to be followed.

The lower reaches are always pressurised to grow more food and would have to yield greater harvests. Thus any loss of upper hill forests may unwittingly increase floods, undesired siltation along with meager water supply.

Forestry and hydrology is invariably linked in the process of land recovery and adaptive land use.

The Siem Reap river basin integrating advanced hydrological practices has created a legendary system at Angkor Wat in the 12th century. The hydrological excellence of the system has rarely been surpassed. Likewise it may be helpful to orient development towards a hydrological solution in the Terai with modest resources.

Figure 13: Map of Tonle Sap

The Jalpaiguri area running up to the foothills has certain similarities and could absorb the lessons of Tonle Sap.

9. WATER MANAGEMENT AND LAND USE A TIERED SYSTEM The introduction of a tiered system for mountains, foothills and flat plains is an attempt at water and land management in Northern India. The Terai at the Himalayan foothills is ideally suited for such a systematic analysis .With the advent of GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and the various interpretive satellite imagery services, it is easier today to generate geomorphic maps that includes altitude,slope,soil,climate and vegetation etc. Our proposal of a Three Tiered system aims at a hierarchic order of intervention, manipulation and land use pattern. The densely populated Terai region has to reserve some of its areas for natural biospheres or else its survival in the lower plains will be doubtful. 1. The upper tier is an area where some biosphere change will take place due to the disappearing snow line. In terms of water management, this is an initial collector zone as also the first check on erosion. Forestry here is of utmost importance both as a means of moisture retention as well as erosion control. Moreover, evapo-transpiration will help precipitation and the monsoon. Human intervention and the land usage should be limited in absolute terms, although some hydel catchments can be created. Eco-tourism, trek routes would be a positive development. 2. The middle tier is the crucial belt where large populations of the plains meet the sparsely dwelled upper slopes. The climate change will affect this area substantially as it is today, the zone of large deciduous forests, although

Figure 14 &15: Tiered system and mapping.

Forests Initial collector zone. Eco tourism and hydel catchment

Terracing Plantation

More forest cover

systematically destroyed by human activities including terraced agriculture. The seeding of the monsoon clouds will require forest cover, but then the pressure of population would necessarily mean economic activity. This area is most prone to erosion and landslides and would have to be strictly protected against random human settlements. Agricultural activities would have to be in proper terraced fields with a statutorily controlled forest cover for acres of cultivated land. The water management here is even more important as much as the main interim storage and recharge zone. Check dams, small lakes along with mini hydel projects would be the order of the day. To enhance economic activity, a substantial change in the agricultural activities is needed. Economic forestry has to couple itself with large scale herbariums, orchards, and floral horticulture. Activities such as beekeeping, forest product exploitation and bio medical ventures could be encouraged. In short, larger population densities are possible provided agroeconomic activities are organized around a resurgent forestry. 3. The lower foothills and the plains are the starting point of the meandering alluvial streams. Here, large lakes and underground recharge is essential to provide water downstream. The pressure on land would raise substantial conflicts of usage. Here again, the age old agricultural practices and occupations would have to go through metamorphosis. Activities would now be water related namely pisciculture, algae harvesting and large scale water-tourism. The shift of economic activity from agriculture (fields) requires investment in downstream forest industry namely high end timber (building and home industry), food processing and animal husbandry. 10. THE TERAI AND THE PLAINS It is important that corridors of green namely forest land should streak out towards the deltas, assuring more benign climatic conditions while making maximum use of the monsoon clouds. Forest cover is one of the few mitigating aspects in the future climate change scenario of typhoons, dry spells, and inundations. The loss of agricultural land has to be made up with greater productivity on the remaining land between the strands of forest/foliage

Figure 16: Three tier system.

Terraced agricultural zone Interim storage and recharge zone

Forest cover

Figure 17: The middle tier.

Large lakes and underground recharge

Figure Infiltration /recharge in upper reaches 18: The lower foothills and the plains.

Mountain stream-check dam

Collection in small lakes A forestation for seeding monsoons as well as water retention. Contour settings in foothills.(macro landscaping controls) Green corridors in lower regions Better use of smaller land resources

(green corridors) that will also act as water reservoirs. Here again tea gardens and other plantations (orchards) will certainly help. This integrated agro activity is now a byword in Thailand and in South East Asian areas. Here indeed lies a future. It is along the strands of forest that small rainwater collection systems can be effectively established.

Figure 19: Plan showing Jalpaiguri, India.

10. IMPLEMENTING POLICIES OF CHANGE The inevitable dire scenario of climate change should force us to quickly harness the means for an Action Plan, Implement and monitor the proposed drastic changes in land use and water management as also the control of human habitation. Apart from legal hurdles and financial limitations, the policy of confronting the coming hard days during climate change requires proper planning and manpower. Logistics and new infrastructure will be at the core of a success story. For this to take place, the local bodies and more particularly, the relevant institutes have to gear themselves up to provide the basic inputs of engineering, agronomy, forestry, hydrology, seismology and pisciculture. They would have to act as facilitator to the population, providing specialized inputs connecting to sophisticated institutional data (Satellite imagery etc.) and training prospective entrepreneurs to newer activities. 11. LOGISTICS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Objectives and Development Agenda

Integrating forests and its resources. Discipline of re-use and recycle. Strict upstream regulation possible banning of settlements in order to protect the ecosystems from long term damage induced by the land and resource usage by these settlements.

Storages - barrages of lakes for continuous water usage through Figure 20: Plan showing Government Engineering College, out the year.
Jalpaiguri, India.

New Economic Opportunities

The role of institutes and centre of higher learning as a harbinger of change creates an unavailable knowledge base and data centre. It also adds to the extension activities for the creative enterprises preparing a future in economic and social development through engineering a) Hydraulics b) Seismology c) Soil mechanics and geo-engineering d) Timber and forest management e) Forestry (economic) and forest products

The retreat of economic opportunities (output and productivity) from land based to water and forest based. Fishing Water recreational activities Aqua culture Forest based products Special cultivation Timber production Paper industry which is questionable on the return type.

Spices Herbs and medicinal plants Orchards / apiary

f) Timber as an industrial material Wood based products Paper based products

g) Timber as a building material Seasoning and treatment to wood wood countries

Introduction construction

Standardized construction in developed (cheaper)

Large scale substitution

h) Fisheries (tract farms) It is strange that the Terai has hardly bothered to emulate the excellent ventures of the other hilly regions namely Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal, India. The objectives and development agenda for the Terai has been laid out in some detail in this presentation. It is a perspective on how to create opportunities during distress and plan ahead for mitigation rather than abject surrender. The plethora of problems should not hold us to start a consorted effort in organizing a structure/development plan of the Terai with proscriptive and prescriptive policies clearly stated.

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