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RUSSIA 2020: Ecommerce Country Report
RUSSIA 2020: Ecommerce Country Report
RUSSIA 2020
Ecommerce Country Report
RXRRU20RP
Country: RUSSIA
Capital: Moscow, 55° 45’ N, 37° 37’ E
CENTRAL
URALS
VOLGA
SIBERIAN
SOUTHERN
SECTOR INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS RETAILX SECTOR ANALYST REPORT LUXURY 2019
FAST FASHION INTRODUCTION
In 2017, Chinese consumers accounted for around a third of the personal luxury goods sector, Welcome to the RetailX sector analyst
representing approximately four times the value of the total domestic luxury market in China.
INTRODUCTION reports, where we combine RetailX’s
The global market for personal luxury goods is forecast to grow to €290bn by 2020. four years of in-depth company
Fast Fashion has cemented its status as the driving force within the fashion industry. performance research with analysis of
Welcome to the RetailX Sector Analyst Between 2008 and 2017, the personal luxury goods market grew from €167bn to €262bn (5.1%
The sector emerged in the late 1990s when runway creations were quickly copied and Reports, where we combine RetailX’s the sector dynamics.
CAGR, 2008-2017), pushed by these Chinese customers. Yet in July 2018, fewer than 60% of
The advent of social media has dispersed and democratised celebrity Let us know of sectors you’d like to see
us cover – research@retailx.net
Consumer concerns about sustainability do not appear to have slowed the
market’s growth
The Japanese automotive industry’s Just In Time (JIT) manufacturing method OUR ANALYST
influenced Fast Fashion TL;DR
THOMAS ANDERSSON
Zara is a frontrunner in the Fast Fashion industry The internet abbrebviation ‘TL;DR’ means ‘Too Long; Didn’t Read’. In that spirit, here are some
• sustainability
Martin devises the scope and of digital retail terms in the listed companies’
Market inhibitors include concerns about near-shoring combined to make Fast methods of RetailX’s research. has also increased costs HEAD OF RESEARCH: Martin Shaw
and labour conditions, Fashion mainstream Annual Reports, 2008 to 2017 SENIOR ANALYST: Thomas Andersson
• While Chinese luxury consumers have driven
• have
CEO: Ian Jindal
and supply chain exposure to political Sustainability and labour concerns Head of Research: Martin Shaw COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR: Andy James
uncertainty on free trade and tariffs growth in the sector, it is prone to volatility • The circular economy – second-hand or
not to date had a major impact Senior Analyst: Thomas Andersson DESIGN: Marzena Zychowicz
• around
Benetton and Inditex adopted JIT
the same time but interpreted
on Fast Fashion retailers, nor overall
customer demand. However, Fast
Editors: Chloe Rigby, Jonathan Wright
Commercial Director: Andy James
based on domestic and international events ‘recommerce’ – is a new opportunity in ADDRESS: RetailX, 123 Cannon Street, London,
EC4N 5AU
Design: Marzena Zychowicz (a Chinese government crackdown on graft; luxury, covering items from luxury cars to
the processes differently. Benetton Fashion retailers now sell ‘sustainable Address: RetailX, 123 Cannon Street
© 2019 RetailX Limited
produced large volumes of a narrow collections’ to cater to this growing London, EC4N 5AU the cooling of US-Sino trade relations) vintage watches
set of SKUs in raw form and dyed consumer preference. © 2019 RetailX Limited
INTRODUCTION CONTENTS
Market context: ecommerce in Russia 4
Market overview 6
Partner perspective: Asendia 9
Digital overview 10
Ecommerce overview 12
Welcome to the Russia Ecommerce Country The Russian consumer 14
Report for 2020, the latest in our series of Online shops 16
reports analysing key ecommerce markets Coronavirus tracker 17
around the world. End matter and references 18
It offers a concise yet comprehensive picture Conclusion19
of a developing market where there are huge
opportunities, yet potential difficulties too.
At a geopolitical level, the annexation of Crimea has strained
international relations, while condemnation of this action from
the UK and EU has soured the rhetoric towards European
businesses. There are currently economic sanctions in place, yet
FIGURES
these are specific and targeted. In the UK, the Department of
Country profile/Age structure/Population 6
International Trade stresses that legitimate business relations are
Russia’s GDP/GDP growth 7
unaffected. Furthermore, Russia ranks 28th in the World Bank
Internet usage/Device usage for online 10
‘Doing Business’ rankings [see page 7], which is higher than
Social media usage/Internet Inclusivity Index 11
India, China and Brazil.
Russia’s B2C market 12
In addition, the Russian market is of particular interest because
B2C ecommerce sales as percentage of GDP 12
Russian consumers value international brands, often preferring
Average online spending per e-shopper/Payment method preference 12
them to domestic brands. There are huge opportunities for those
Share of online population shopping online 12
retailers and brands that can connect with Russia’s growing
Share of e-wallet users paying for goods and services online 13
middle class. This is not to understate the difficulties of doing
Factors influencing ecommerce market growth 13
business in the country but with appropriate planning and
Most online purchased category 13
partnerships, there is a path for commerce.
Ecommerce delivery methods 13
We hope that this report’s up-to-date, factual and commercial
Internet users by age 14
information will help in the growth of commerce. Over the
Decisive factors for customers making a purchase 14
coming months, we will augment our findings with specific
Attitudes towards online shopping 14
webinars and case studies. As we turn to research for the 2021
Problems faced by customers using Russian post delivery 15
report, please do share your feedback and suggest areas for
Shopping enthusiasm among Russian consumers, 2019 15
further investigation and analysis.
Pick-up point delivery issues/Courier delivery issues 15
Ian Jindal, CEO, RetailX Parcel pick-up services 15
Main factors affecting the choice of logistic provider 16
Overall satisfaction of online stores with logistic company services 16
Most frequent issues with logistics companies 16
Change in ecommerce purchase frequency because of Covid 17
Share of Russians who discovered new online stores 17
Loyalty to stores discovered during self-isolation 17
AN ECOMMERCE
middle class emerging in Russia and, despite the population set
to decline between now and 2050 –when it is projected to dip
to 135m – these newly minted, aspirational spenders are driving
Still a vast land of extreme wealth and also extreme DIGITAL REVOLUTION
poverty, it’s the rise of a large and young middle class When you consider that Russia only started modernising its
that is changing society in Russia. Having grown up with collapsed economy around the time the internet was taking off
the internet, these are the shoppers who are impatiently in the West, its uptake of the technology has been impressive. By
waiting for the country’s creaking infrastructure to catch up 2019, the former Soviet Union had 83% of its population using
the internet, while projections for the end of 2020 put it as high
as 85%. This would put the country on a par with the US, UK
Russia has a rich and fascinating history marked out by numerous and other advanced digital economies.
economic upheavals that would have broken lesser nations. Three quarters (76%) of these web users currently use desktop,
While rarely thought of as a pioneer in global trade and more according to Statcounter data, with just 23% using smartphones.
typically viewed as being insular and mysterious, Russia’s very However, with a population that is increasingly aged 25 to 54
founding by the Russ Vikings more than a 1,000 years ago was and with increasing smartphone usage a certainty across almost
all because of trade. all countries, this proportion is likely to shift considerably in
The landmass that is modern-day Russia is criss-crossed by the coming years. As has been found globally, the pandemic’s
rivers, which formed a far-reaching watery highway between impact of forcing more consumers to shop online is likely to drive
Scandinavia and the Middle and Far East. A turn-off from the Silk increased mobile use in Russia as much as it is elsewhere – with
Road brought goods from all over the world to the frozen North. convenience being the key driver.
Yet much of this open and trade-led heritage was lost over the
centuries due to Russia’s volatile history. Pre-revolution, it was
a vast, although relatively poor, country with a huge divide in ECOMMERCE REVOLUTION
wealth. Post-revolution and post-WW2, it emerged as a global This increasing reach of the web across a burgeoning young,
superpower, with an economy to match. increasingly affluent Russian middle class has seen the country’s
However, in 1990, Communist collapsed and the economy business to consumer (B2C) ecommerce market grow around
contracted by 45% – an almost unprecedented amount and one 20% every year since 2016. That figure is expected to be 26%
that should have seen the country ruined beyond recovery. To for 2020, which would mean B2C revenues of $33.20bn –
put it in context, the cost of the coronavirus pandemic is expected 2.17% of the country’s GDP.
to see a global economic contraction of 3.5%. 46% of the population is expected to have shopped online
Yet Russia has spent the past three decades rebuilding its in 2020, a figure that’s grown steadily from 21% in 2015. The
economy and has, in recent years, returned to being one of the coronavirus pandemic has, as it has everywhere, spurred
richest and most powerful countries in the world. As of 2019, ecommerce growth in 2020, with average spend per online
its GDP stood at some $1.68tn, according to the International shopper hitting $494.70 this year after bumping along at
Monetary Fund (IMF), making it the 11th largest economy in around $420 since 2015.
the world. To put this in context, the average US online shopper spends
Much of the country’s new-found wealth has come from oil around $2,773. So while the Russian ecommerce market is on
and gas, of which is has enormous reserves that were largely the up, it still has a long way to go before it hits the levels seen
untapped by the former Communist regime. Much of this wealth in the most mature online markets.
has ended up in the hands of a select few – Russia boasts This new-found impetus for online shopping is likely to
some 70 officially listed billionaires – while around 13% of the continue in Russia, just as it will elsewhere in the world, as more
While the wealth of a few oligarchs is flaunted in a shiny new vision of Moscow, it’s the growth of a large middle class that is driving ecommerce
shoppers become aware of the benefits of online commerce. biggest hurdles that Russian ecommerce expansion faces.
According to data, 11% of growth in 2020 has been driven Inconvenient working hours, lack of delivery notifications, lost
by pandemic-based self-isolation. Looking ahead to 2021, packages and rude staff are all cited by Russian shoppers as
increased frequency of purchasing and a switch to distanced problems they regularly face when looking to interact with the
working and education are going to continue this habit. An postal system. Similar issues are also noted by shoppers, albeit
expected 11% rise in new ecommerce customers will also drive in smaller numbers, around courier services.
driving this. Delivery, it seems, is very much the weakest link in the
Like most other ecommerce markets, Russian consumers are development of the Russian ecommerce market right now.
increasingly buying clothing, consumer electronics and health, Perhaps more than any other factor, it’s one that marks out the
beauty and body care products online. Food and drink, however, market as one that still has a long way to go to reach maturity.
is also starting to see a rise in popularity, with 21% of shoppers in Yet widespread internet availability and a willingness to
2020 grocery shopping online and 16% of consumers planning use it are both there. While the infrastructure and mindset to
to increase their online grocery purchasing in the coming years. deliver, both physically and metaphorically, perhaps lack the
Russ Viking’s dedication to open trade, there is a clear demand
and expectation for Russia to be less like its Communist market
POSTAL REVOLUTION of old and more like the rest of the world. n
68% of Russian consumers want free delivery from online stores
in addition to sales and discounts, while 48% want fast delivery.
However, a reliance on the Russian postal service is one of the
CAPITAL:
AGE STRUCTURE OF RUSSIA’S MOSCOW
TOTAL POPULATION
CURRENCY:
RUBLE (RUB)
-1.54%
0.71% -0.18%
142
144.34 144.47
0.17% -0.01%
139.03
-1.49%
137.29
-1.25%
138
135.82
-1.07%
134
2015 2017 2019 2025 (F) 2030 (F) 2035 (F) 2040 (F) 2045 (F) 2050 (F)
2016 2018 2020 (F)
SOURCE: WORLDOMETERS
RUSSIA’S GDP, IN TN RUB, 2015-2020 (F) GDP GROWTH, RUB, 2016-2020 (F)
115.09 6.3%
108.32
102.19
6.0%
92.05
83.10 86.01
11.0%
7.0%
3.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F)
RUSSIA’S GDP, IN $TN USD, 2015-2020 (F) GDP GROWTH, USD, 2016-2020 (F)
$1.68 3.3%
$1.63
$1.56 $1.53 4.2%
$1.49
$1.34 16.2%
-9.0%
-10.1%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F)
LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE
LPI measures performance along the logistics supply chain within a country 75 out of 160
INDEX (LPI)
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX A high Ease of Doing Business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the
28 out of 190
starting and operation of a local firm
E-GOVERNMENT The E-government Development Index measures the willingness and capacity of national administrations
36 out of 193
DEVELOPMENT INDEX to use information and communication technologies in order to deliver public services
SOURCE: WORLDBANK, UNITED NATIONS KEY: Top quartile Second quartile Third quartile Bottom quartile
DIGITAL OVERVIEW
100
75
PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION
83% 85%
81%
70% 73% 76%
50
25
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (F)
SOURCE: WORLDBANK
DESKTOP
76%
SMARTPHONE
23%
TABLET
1%
SOURCE: STATCOUNTER
PINTEREST VKONTAKTE
TWITTER 21% 26%
8%
YOUTUBE
making it one of the most popular social
networking sites in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
AVAILABILITY Quality and breadth of available infrastructure required for access and levels of internet usage 41 out of 100
AFFORDABILITY Cost of access relative to income and the level of competition in the internet marketplace 12 out of 100
RELEVANCE Existence and extent of local language content and relevant content 17 out of 100
READINESS Capacity to access the internet, including skills, cultural acceptance and supporting policy 59 out of 160
OVERALL INTERNET INCLUSIVE INDEX Benchmark based on internet availability, affordability, relevance and the readiness of people to use it 26 out of 100
ECOMMERCE OVERVIEW
RUSSIA’S B2C, IN LCU TN, B2C, CONVERTED TO $BN USD, B2C ECOMMERCE
2015-2020 (F) 2015-2020 (F) SALES AS
PERCENTAGE OF GDP
47.1% 25.9%
2.50 33.20 YEAR E-GDP
27.4%
2015 0.85%
30.8% 26.36
14.1%
1.70 29.0% 2016 1.05%
21.5% 20.69
18.9% 10.1% 18.14 2017 1.16%
1.30
26.8%
1.07 14.06
0.90 12.77 2018 1.27%
0.71
2019 1.57%
SOURCE: RETAILX ANALYSIS SOURCE: DATA INSIGHT, PAYPAL SOURCE: EUROSTAT, RETAILX ANALYSIS
IMPOLITE STAFF 3%
CUSTOMER SURVEY ON COURIER
DELIVERY ISSUES, 2019
SOURCE: STATISTA, DATA INSIGHT (RU), ARVATO, ATLAS, DPD, BOXBERRY, IML
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 10%
POINT DELIVERY ISSUES, 2019 COURIER COULD NOT FIND THE ADDRESS 6%
IMPOLITE SERVICE 5%
INCONVENIENT WORKING HOURS 15%
WRONG GOODS WERE DELIVERED 4%
GOODS WERE DAMAGED 12%
SOURCE: STATISTA, DATA INSIGHT (RU), ARVATO, ATLAS, DPD, BOXBERRY, IML
NUMBER OF RESPONSES
LOGISTIC PROVIDER BY RUSSIAN ONLINE
SHOPS, 2019 83
109
SOURCE: STATISTA, DATA INSIGHT (RU), ARVATO, ATLAS, DPD, BOXBERRY, IML
SOURCE: STATISTA, DATA INSIGHT (RU), ARVATO, ATLAS, DPD, BOXBERRY, IML
8 8
COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS WITH BAD COURIER SERVICE UNCLEAR PRICING FREQUENT DAMAGE OR BAD COMMUNICATION DIFFICULTIES WITH
PROBLEMS PERSONAL ACCOUNT AND UNRELIABLE LOSS OF GOODS WITH CUSTOMERS MONEY TRANSFERS
TIMEFRAME
7 7
NUMBER OF RESPONSES
6 6 5
4
TOO LONG DELIVERY RESPONSIBILITY PROBLEMS WITH IT POORLY ORGANISED HIGH PRICES SLOW PROCESSES
DISCLAIMER SYSTEM INTEGRATION SYSTEM OF ORDER AND BUREAUCRACIES
COLLECTION
SOURCE: STATISTA, DATA INSIGHT (RU), ARVATO, ATLAS, DPD, BOXBERRY, IML
GENERATION X 90%
THANKS
RESEARCH
Chief Researcher: Sara Lone
For questions about our research and to send feedback, please email
Sara: research@retailx.net
Research Analyst: Ludovica Quaglieri
Head of Research: Martin Shaw
At a time when the pandemic has had such a profound and CEO, RetailX: Ian Jindal
negative impact on business, the call of Russia’s affluent middle
EDITORIAL
class is music to the ears of retailers and brands. As vaccines are Managing Editor: Jonathan Wright
rolled out, and people begin and travel and mingle again, here Production Editor: Cam Winstanley
is a country that offers huge opportunities for growth. Writer: Paul Skeldon
Looking ahead, we would suggest that ecommerce-capable DESIGN
businesses with a strong presence within Europe are the ones Design: Nick Moyle
best placed to reach Russian consumers. They will find a market MARKETING
where doing business is possible so long as retailers and brands Marketing and Circulation: Addison Southam
conduct appropriate research, adapt to local conditions and marketing@retailx.net
develop partnerships. SALES
Commercial Director: Andy James
andy@retailx.net
Group Creative Solutions Director: Marvin Roberts
marvin@retailx.net
This report is based upon our reasonable efforts to compile and analyse
the best sources available to us at any given time. Opinions reflect
judgment at the time and are subject to change.