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Aitchison 1954 A Synthesis of Engel Curve Theory
Aitchison 1954 A Synthesis of Engel Curve Theory
Aitchison 1954 A Synthesis of Engel Curve Theory
INTRODUCTION
In 1935 Allen and Bowley [3] based their analysis of family budgets on linear
Engel curves. though they were not unaware that the linear form was only a first U
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information over wider ranges of incomes had recourse to curvilinear forms and found
it especially compelling to postulate different curves for necessities and luxuries.
Thus Tornqvist [15] has suggested different hyperbolic forms for these two classes of
commodity and Prais and Houthakker [II] have concluded that a semi-logarithmic
form is most suited to necessities and that a double logarithmic form best describes
demand for luxuries; alternative forms have also been proposed by Champernowne [4],
while Stuvel and James [14] concluded from an analysis of Dutch budgets that the
use of only one regression equation for the complete range of income level and social
H
level. Such we might expect to have been the history of radio sets and to be the future
prospects of television, domestic refrigerators and the like. Such, too, may be the
explanation of the remarkable diagram published by Wold [16J illustrating the demand
for coffee in Greenland by linear functions of income: the slopes of these expenditure
lines become progressively less steep as the measurement is repeated for every decade
from 1840 to 1938. In the same book Wold discusses and develops the pure theory
of individual preference fields for which the more usual assumption of non-satiety is
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relaxed to admit satiety levels bounding what Wold terms regions of scarcity.
We therefore conclude that a form of Engel curve which possesses an upper
asymptote and at the same time is capable of describing luxuries and necessities will
be both elegant and useful, especially in predicting over long periods or when large
income variations are involved. The particular curve considered below is sigmoid in
appearance, and passes through the origin (Fig. I). It seems preferable to suppose
that the average rate of consumption of the good will remain non-zero though small,
even at the lowest income, rather than that there exists some particular level of income
below which the good is not bought.
SATU~ATIO~ LEVEL
QUANTITY
f EX~NDITURe
INCOME __
o
Fig. 1.
A suggested general form of Engel curve for commodities that are luxuries at low incomes and necessities
at high incomes.
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widely known development in biology of the same type of analysis. Finney [7J has
described an experiment in which honey bees were allowed to take honey from a number
of pots to which varying amounts of a repellent had been added. The saturation level
of consumption was in this case estimated partly from a control pot containing no
repellent, and partly from the shape of the normal sigmoid curve which was again
found to describe the relation between the mean consumption of honey and the
concentration of the repellent. The closest economic parallel to this experiment would
of course be provided by the replacement of the repellent concentration by a monetary
price, in which case the assay would take the form of a controlled economic experiment
to determine the variation of demand with respect to price. But there is no reason
why the positive stimulus of income should not be investigated in a similar way. The
theory is, as its counterpart in biology, rooted ultimately in the Weber-Fechner law
of logarithmic reaction to stimuli. It may be that consumers' purchasing decisions
are in fact based on psychological mechanisms of this type, modified by the imposed
economic constraint that the budget must ultimately be balanced; this is not inconsistent
with the decision systems usually proposed in the pure theory of consumers' behaviour.
The purpose of this paper is in fact to present the results of such an investigation and
to discuss the economic significance of the estimates obtained.
The mathematical form of the sigmoid relationship used in this investigation may
be written:
'1 = JZ ~: e- ittdt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. (I)
K - 00 V 27T
where q is the average quantity consumed, K the saturation level of consumption and
z = loga.+ ~log y, y being the consumer's income; a. and ~ are parameters to be
determined along with K. Equation (I) may be rewritten in a convenient abbreviated
form as suggested elsewhere [1J by the authors:
q = KA(a.yP) ........................•............. (2)
where A(z) denotes the standardised lognormal distribution function at z and is
related to the standardised (with zero mean and unit variance) normal distribution
function by
A(z) = N(log z) (3)
For the purpose of statistical estimation equation (2) is assumed to hold in a stochastic
sense only, that is, say, with the addition of a random error term:
q = KA(a.yP) + U •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• (4)
where u is a normal variate with zero mean, or, as is more probable in economic
contexts [2J, with a multiplicative error:
q = KA(a.yP) eu .............•.............•...... (5)
u being defined as before.
It is found in the investigations presented below that in fact ~ is very close to
unity. On setting ~ = 1 we have for the basic equation of the Engel curve:
q = KA(a.y) .......•.•••••.•••••••••.•.••.•..••.... (6)
THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
the parameters of which have a particularly simple interpretation. For the parameter a.
is seen to be a parameter determining the scale, for the individual commodity, on which
income is to be measured. Since the vertical scales for the different commodities differ
again only by the scalar factor;; , model (6) is equivalent to the statement that there is
a single underlying Engel curve, which may be adapted to all commodities by simple
changes in units of measurement. The value of the parameter a. therefore controls the
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degree to which a consumer with a given income is able to approach his saturation
expenditure for each commodity, and for this reason we term it the parameter oj
cheapness; the measure is relative since IX includes a factor depending on the monetary
units in which income is measured. Correspondingly, the cheapness parameter also
controls the value of the income elasticity of demand at any given level of income.
The income elasticity 1) is readily obtained from (6); we have
_ 8 log q _ _ 1_ 8A(ay)
7J - alogy - A (ay) alogy
ay~(ay)
= A (ay) (7)
25
Z{)
1-5"
'-0
0·5
The figure shows that the elasticity is zero for fJ = where the saturation level
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I,
I(
is reached (though it will be recalled that this level is reached only with an infinitely
large income) but continuously increases as fJ. declines, that is, as income declines.
I(
classification is exhaustive in the sense that the item all other expenditure" is obtained
(I
by subtracting the total of the other items from total expenditure, which is here taken
as a measure of income.
TABLE I.
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PARAMETERS OF ENGEL CURVES DERIVED FROM AN ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL
WORKING-CLASS EXPENDITURES 1937-8
Mean Saturation
expenditure expenditure Elasticity at
by sample (per person Cheapness mean value
(per person per week) coefficient of total
Commodity per week) K (Xt expenditure
d. d. 10-I X
Farinaceous food ·. 18.6 23. 8 ( 0·4) 0. 827 (0.033) 0.30
Dairy produce .· 24.6 35. 2 ( 0·5) 0.624 (0.0 19) 0.4 2
Vegetables · . ·. 8·5 13.8 ( 0·3) 0.49 I (0.020) 0·54
All food ·
. ·. 118.1 201.8 ( 1.7) 0.445 (0.004) 0·59
Meat · . ·. ·. 27·9 48.9 ( 0·9) 0.429 (0.0 13) . 0.61
Fuel ·. · . ·. 22.1 45·4 ( 1.4) 0.33 6 (0.017) 0·75
Fish ·. ·. ·. 4·9 10.2 ( 0·4) 0.329 (0.020) 0·77
Rent ·. ·. .· 38.6 92.6 ( 0·4) 0.277 (0.003) 0.88
Clothing ·
. ·. 22·7 55·5 ( 3·7) 0.270 (0.022) 0.89
Fruit ·. ·. ·. 6·7 18.8 ( 0.8) 0.233 (0.012) 1.00
All other expenditure .. 81.0 398.4 ( 28.0) 0.140 (0.008) 1.38
Durables ·. ·. 35. 2 4763 (4 19 ) 0.023 (0.001) 2.90
t The units of a are those appropriate to the measurement of total expenditure in pence per person
per week.
Table I contains the main results of the analysis and a graphical representation is
given in Fig. 3. The commodity groups have been ordered by descending value of the
parameter (x, with the consequence that the most income-inelastic item, farinaceous
foods, occurs first, and the most elastic item, household durables, occurs last in the list.
On the figure the horizontal scales are total expenditure per person, and are the same
for each individual figure; the vertical scales, which represent expenditure per person
on the individual commodity groups, have been chosen so that the saturation ex-
penditure coincides with the top of each individual figure, with the exception of house-
hold durables, where one-tenth only of the vertical axis is shown. For convenience of
interpretation we have marked, by the figure 0.5, on the vertical scale the point
corresponding to an expenditure equal to one-half the saturation expenditure (the
income elasticity is approximately 0.8 at this point). Again the exception is household
durables, where the figure marked is 0.05, or one-twentieth of the saturation expenditure
(corresponding to an elasticity of 2. I ).
It may be appropriate to remark here, as Prais [10] did earlier, that the elasticity
measure is extremely sensitive to. the form of curve assumed. The point seems of
A SYNTHESIS OF ENGEL CURVE THEORY
5"
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FARINACeou~ FOODO OAIRY PROJlUCE VEGETABLES
'5 I / 5
.:
/
'5 5
FllSH CLOTHING
FRUIT
-: ALL OT~ER EXPENDITURE HOUSE~Ot..D OURABLES
..
5 /
5 05
} 05
....... - /
150 .[100 £150 /50 £100 £150 Iso £100 1150
Fig. 3.
Engel curves for twelve commodity groups. Industrial working class budgets 1937-8.
10_--------------~...--_.
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,i
• • -J
.'
,',
r,
--,
../ ,'
....)'
;/
:,.>'
.'/
zo ;1
1ft
I:
/
I'
-,'. .'
ii'
t .
IO~ i.
..
,, ,
'
.-
~
MODEL 8
::
,.,
r :
;
SEMI -LOGARITHMIC
/. .
l
DOUBLE -LOGARITHMIC
TOTAL EXPENDITUKE
(I'e.t\C£ pu rtHO\'\. po- ~)
Fig, 4.
Expenditure on dairy produce.
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We tum now to a more general discussion of the implication of our system of
Engel curves. First, the system of curves described by (8) is not additive: that is,
the sum of expenditures predicted by the individual curves is not identically equal to
total expenditure, at least if the curves are fitted with the assumption of independent
errors which we have used. The calculation of the differences, however, confirms the
impression to be gained from Fig. 3, namely that these are of a very small order, in
most cases below 1 per cent of total expenditure. Thus it would be very difficult if
not impossible to distinguish between the present system and one which included the
additional restraint of additivity, since the discrepancies are within the errors of the
estimates. Secondly, in our discussion we have not so far taken account of inferior
goods; that is, those possessing a negative income elasticity. If the good is inferior
over the whole range of income, it may be analysed with the use of equation (2), in
which case the numerical value of ~ will be negative. But it must be admitted that our
system of curves cannot easily be adapted to the case of a commodity which, whilst in
the lower ranges of income it behaves like a necessity or even a luxury, is treated by
the very rich as an inferior good. This phenomenon is considered by Wold [16, p. 276J
though the interpretation of the examples' he gives is not unambiguous.
Model (8) may be transformed for the investigation of market data (aggregated
over consumers) by means of a suitable assumption about the distribution of consumers'
incomes. Elsewhere [IJ the writers have put forward arguments for using the lognormal
distribution in such a context, and its application here is particularly simple. For if
incomes are distributed lognormally with parameters fl and 0'2, the distribution function
being written A(ylfl,0'2), the total quantity demanded by the community is given by
q* = f
KA (ay) ~ (ylfl"a 2) dy
= KA (al-ft, I+a 2) (9)
Before investigating market data of this type we must make provision for the
effect of prices, both of the commodity itself, and of possible substitutes and comple-
ments. It is tempting to suggest that prices enter the model analogously to income:
31 3n )
q = KA ( a'yp'Y PI , ,Pn (10)
where P is the price of the commodity and Pt, pn are the prices of the n
remaining commodities in the system. With this formulation the Engel curve is a
cross-section of the demand surface at a given constellation of prices, and the saturation
parameter K is independent of prices and incomes. When aggregated over the community
this yields :
s, I
31
q* = KA ( a'p'Ypl Pn - ft' I +a)
2
(II)
The most convenient method of applying this aggregated form is to estimate K from
budget data, fl and 0'2 from a time series of income distributions, and then, with the
44 THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
pro bit transformation, to estimate the price parameters y and 81 •••••• an from the
linear relation:
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which the most important will be the study of Engel curves for different periods.
Without such further experimental work it seems idle to do more than sketch a
possible theory of the factors influencing the value of saturation expenditures. These
factors will include most of those which are usually classed as sociological or taste
factors. In particular those taste factors associated with the age-sex composition of
households are of great importance. Some preliminary analysis of data on post-war
food consumption suggests, as is to be expected, that the value of I< differs according
to the size and composition of the household. On the basis of a separation between those
effects of composition which are specific to the commodity and those which affect the
standard of living as a whole, the obvious formulation is
qi = El<ij nj A (y IE aj nj) •••••••••.••••.....•••.•••••.•.••• (13)
where qi is the household expenditure on, or consumption of, the i tk commodity, y is
the household income, nj the number of individuals of the j'tk category in the household,
and I<ij and fXj coefficients corresponding to the specific and income effects respectively.
This formulation is particularly attractive in that it allows, in principle, for the separate
estimation of the coefficients I<ij and rxj, by comparing Engel curves for groups of
families of constant composition.
Recently, demand analysts have been devoting more attention to those factors
which influence consumption but are not included in the classical categories of
economics. In particular, attention has been paid to the possibility of rigidities in
consumer behaviour, as evidenced by the irreversibility of demand functions through
time [5], the influence of previous peaks in the level of consumption [9]. and, recently,
the concept of a set of expenditures to which the consumer is committed before he can
make any free purchasing decisions [13]. The present paper and the ideas it contains
are put forward as a contribution to this line of thought.
CONCLUSIONS
The following are the main conclusions of the paper.
(i) The idea of a saturation level of expenditure on a commodity leads to
the concept of a sigmoid Engel curve; the form of curve adopted implies that a
typical commodity behaves as a luxury at low incomes and as a necessity at high
incomes.
(ii) An analogy may usefully be drawn between such Engel curves and the
sigmoid response curves used by biologists to describe the effects of measurable
stimuli on the behaviour of living organisms.
(iii) A specific mathematical form for the curve, based on the cumulative form
of the normal curve of error, is suggested in equation (I) and a simplified form in
equation (8). Efficient procedures are available for estimating the parameters.
(iv) A very satisfactory fit was obtained when the simplified curve was used
to analyse working-class expenditures for 1937-8.
(v) The two parameters I< and rx of the simplified curve are referred to as the
parameters of saturation and of cheapness; this interpretation arises from the
A SYNTHESIS OF ENGEL CURVE THEORY 45
simple way in which K and lX influence the scales of the amount consumed q, and
the consumer's income y, respectively. For the same reason, comparison of the
K and lX obtained for households of varying composition enables us to separate the
effect of household composition on the demand for the individual commodity
from its influence on the general standard of living of the household.
(vi) The further assumption of a lognormal distribution of consumers'
incomes facilitates the extension of the analysis to market data; it is suggested
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that cross-section studies should be used in conjunction with this data, especially
in investigations of possible changes in saturation levels.
Cambridge J. AITCHISON.
J. A. C. BROWN.
Tables of Z (x) = ~ /1 e -IX! and P (x) = Jx Z (t) dt are required for the com-
v 211 -00
putational method detailed below. For given x, Z(x) is obtained directly from Table II
and P(x) by inverse use of Table IX of [8J; the value of x corresponding to a given
P(x) is obtained directly from Table IX.
The computation proceeds as follows.
(i) From the appearance of the original expenditure data, grouped according
to the income variable y, make a guess KO at the value of the saturation parameter K.
(ii) Express the grouped average expenditures as proportions p = CL of the
KO
estimated saturation expenditure.
(iii) Use Table IX to obtain x corresponding to each p = P(x).
(iv) Plot each x against the corresponding u = logeY. Any systematic
curvature in the array of plotted points is an indication that KO is either too large
or too small. After correction for any curvature fit a straight line, say x = (}o + u,
with unit slope and determine (}o; 1Xo, the initial guess at the cheapness parameter lX,
is then given by (Xo = eOo.
(v) For each given value of u, determine the predicted value of x from the
fitted line x = (}o + u and obtain Z(x) and P(x) from Tables II and IX respectively.
(vi) Calculate the sums EnZ 2, EnZP, EnP2, EnZ (P-P) and EnP (P-P) over
all income groups, where n is the number of observations in each income group.
(vii) Obtain the new approximations KI and (}l (and hence (Xl) by solving
the equations
EnP2 EnPZ --I ,-- KI - K O -- = - EnZ (P-P) --
KO •••••••••••••••• (AI)
2
EnPZ EnZ _II _ (}l -
I
(}o EnP (P-P)
(viii) If necessary, use the new approximations to inaugurate a new cycle of
calculations from step (v) until a satisfactory degree of convergence is attained,
say at the m th stage.
THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
(ix) Estimate the residual variance s2 either from the weighted sum of squared
deviations En(q-KmP)2 or from the pooled sums of squared deviations of the
individual observations of consumption from their income group means.
(x) The covariance matrix of Km and 8m is then S2 times the inverse matrix
of coefficients on the left-hand side of (AI).
Graphical evidence that the slope of the relation between x and u differs from
unity indicates that the value of ~ should be estimated along with K and Qt. The
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reader is referred in this case to Finney [7, znd edition, pp. 185--97]. Evidence
that the variance of q increases proportionately with the square of q suggests
that equation (5) with a multiplicative error term would be more appropriate.
For the method of estimation in this case the reader is referred to Aitchison and
Brown [2].
REFERENCES
[1] J. Aitchison and J. A. C. Brown, "On Criteria for the Description of Income Distribution,"
Metroeconomica, 1954, to be published.
[2] J. Aitchison and J. A. C. Brown, " An Estimation Problem in Quantitative Assay," to be published
in Biometrika, 41, December 1954.
[3] R. G. D. Allen and A. L. Bowley, Family Expenditure, Staples Press Limited, 1935.
[4] D. G. Champernowne, " Discussion on H. S. Houthakker, The Econometrics of Family Budgets,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 115, Part 1, 1952.
[5] M. J. Farrell, " Irreversible Demand Functions," Econometrica, 20, 1952.
[6] M. J. Farrell, "The Demand for Motor Cars in the United States," Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society, Series A, 117, Part 2, 1954.
[7] D. J. Finney, Probit Analysis: A Statistical Treatment of the Sigmoid Response Curve, London: Cam-
bridge University Press, 1947. Second edition, 1952.
[8] R. A. Fisher and F. Yates, Statistical Tables, third edition, Oliver & Boyd, 1948.
[9] F. Modigliani, " Fluctuation in the Savings-Income Ratio: A Problem in Economic Forecasting," in
Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 11, 1949.
[10] S. J. Prais, .. Non-linear Estimates of the Engel Curve," Review of Economic Studies, 20, (2). 1954.
[11] S. J. Prais and H. S. Houthakker, The Analysis of Family Budgets, to be published in the Department
of Applied Economics Monograph Series by Cambridge University Press.
[12] Richard Stone, The Measurement of Consumers' Expenditure and Behaviour in the United Kingdom,
1920-1938. Vol. 1, Cambridge University Press, 1954.
[13] Richard Stone, .. Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis," The Economic Journal, 64, 1954.
[14] G. Stuvel and S. F. James, .. Household Expenditures on Food in Holland," Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society, Series A, 113, Part 1.
[15] L. Tornqvist, Review in Ekonomist Tidskrift, 43, 1954.
[16] H. Wold, Demand Analysis, Almqvist and Wiksells, Stockholm, 1952.