Weather forecasting Innovation for change

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An Example:
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Energy forecasting errors in New York City

Inaccurate wind prediction in NY city results in:

20% of ERROR in MWh in the Day-ahead Forecast,
which causes big fluctuations on price in the
energy market
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Wind is volatile and still difficult to predict
Who needs a
groundbreaking
solution?
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Energy Generation Average Statistics
Scheduled vs Actual

Wind is the form of energy amongst all

with highest amount of average prediction error (20%)
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How is wind forecasted?

Current limitations Opportunities

- Existing data collection network is suitable - Need to design a specific data
only for general weather forecasting collection network suitable for wind
purposes speed measurement purposes
- Not enough wind data is available
Defining our value proposition…
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What have we done so far?

Interviews Researches

Datameteo Available technologies

Enel Customers
MeteoGroup Market
Tesla Forecasting
Aeolis
DTU (Tech University of Denmark)
Weather Forecast Solutions

Our Main Findings

• Identification of useful time slots for wind forecasting: 3-5 days.
• Wind measurements are done at 80 meters.
• In the south of Italy there is lack of weather stations.
• Many players offering forecasting services but very few measuring and obtaining data
• Different forecasting models have different pros and cons.
• There is no integration of available information between weather forecasting agencies.
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Our value proposition

We reduce the additional energy price linked to a low accuracy of wind prediction by
reducing the forecasting error from 20% to 10%

HOW?
Through the deployment of a service
platform which captures wind data from
multiple sources effectively positioned

Advantages
• Reduction in operating costs for producers
and grid operator.
• Increased information for a better pricing of
energy.

Note: Our value proposition will change according

to the results obtained from the elaboration of our case study
and from the output of the interviews that will be conducted
What are we doing next?
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Elaboration of a Case Study

Where: Castiglione Wind Farm

What:
1. Obtain historical data related to:
• Real weather data
• Forecasted data
• Power curve of wind turbines

2. Conduct interviews: Meet all parties

involved in the operation of the plant

3. Define current measurement points

4. Evaluate and monitor
5. Determine current sources of error

The case study will help us understand if our initial hypothesis is valid
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Our plan until June 2016
Next steps
Case study
1. Experiment definition and expected results
Data type
Sensors position
Model used

2.Data collection
Define site
Collect forecast and actual data
3.Data analysis

4. Identify our original solution

5.Search case studies already available on internet

Research and interviews

1.Search for open source models
Understanding their logics and input needed

2.Clear understanding of factors influencing winds

Are they included in the model we use?

3. Available technology
Classic (i.e. sensors)
Alternative (Big data)

Economical feasibility
Business Plan
Business Model Canvas
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20 years down the road
Integration between future smart grid and wind forecasting
ANNEX A: CASE STUDY
ANNEX B: INTERVIEWS

We will conduct interviews to 3 different actors:

- Energy firms (energy production and weather forecasting
departments)
- Universities
- TSO (Transmission System Operators)
Link to Energy Provider Survey
Link to TSO Survey
ANNEX C: REQUIRED TECHNOLOGIES
SOURCE OF NEEDED TECHNOLOGY Comments
INACCURACY
Sensor device Advanced sensing technologies Improving precision of wind speed by
employing measurement technologies
used in other applications such as
aerospace, biology, medicine

Algorithms/ Forecasting Predictive models, Genetic The use of advanced algorithms or

models algorithms, Neural Networks, models which represent a correlation
Statistical models between real data

Sensor positioning A software which is able to analyze Existing measurement points may not
an area and determine what the be placed in the most advantageous
optimal placement of sensors is, geographical position for data collection
based on historical data. but rather selected based on practical
constraints such as perceived cost or
accessibility benefits
Our Team Board – Task Assignments