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Analisis Dampak
Analisis Dampak
Analisis Dampak
OECD, 2002 Positive and negative, primary and secondary long-term effects produced by a
development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended’.
Wordl Bank, 2009 The difference in the indicator of interest (Y) with the intervention (Y1 ) and
without the intervention (Y0 ). That is, impact = Y1 - Y0 .’
International Initiative for How an intervention alters the state of the world. Impact evaluations typically
Impact Evaluation focus on the effect of the intervention on the outcome for the beneficiary
population.
Australian Department of Impacts are positive or negative changes produced by a development
Foreign Affairs & Trade intervention–directly or indirectly, intended or unintended–in the context of
Office of Development its environment, as it interacts with the multiple factors affecting
Effectiveness (DFAT ODE) development change.
9
Joint United Nations ‘The long-term, cumulative effect of programs/interventions over time on
Programme on HIV/ what they ultimately aim to change,such as a change in HIV infection, AIDS-
AIDS (UNAIDS) 16 related morbidity and mortality. Note: Impacts at a population-level are
rarely attributable to a single program/intervention, but a specific program/
intervention may, together with other programs/interventions, contribute to
impacts on a population.’
Organisasi Definisi
US Agency for ‘A results or effect that is caused by or attributable to a project or program. Impact is often
International used to refer to higher level effects of a program that occur in the medium or long term, and
Development (USAID) 10 can be intended or unintended and positive or negative.
European Commission In an impact assessment process, the term impact describes all the changes which are expected
(EC) 11 to happen due to the implementation and application of a given policy option/intervention.
Such impacts may occur over different timescales, affect different actors and be relevant at
different scales (local, regional, national and EU). In an evaluation context, impact refers to the
changes associated with a particular intervention which occur over the longer term.’
United Nations ‘Impact implies changes in people’s lives. This might include changes in knowledge,skill,
Development Group behaviour, health or living conditions for children, adults, families or communities. Such
(UNDG) 12 changes are positive or negative long term effects on identifiable population groups produced
by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended. These effects can
be economic,socio-cultural, institutional, environmental, technological or of other types.
Positive impacts should have some relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),
internationally-agreed development goals, national development goals (as well as human rights
as enshrined in constitutions), and national commitments to international conventions and
treaties’.
Global Environment ‘A fundamental and durable change in the condition of people and their environment brought
Facility (GEF) 13 about by the project’ International
International Fund for ‘The changes in the lives of rural people, as perceived by them and their partners at the time of
Agricultural evaluation, plus sustainability-enhancing change in their environment to which the project has
Development (IFAD) 14 contributed. Changes can be positive or negative, intended or unintended. In the logframe
terminology these “perceived changes in the lives of the people” may correspond either to the
purpose level or to the goal level of a project intervention.’
World Health ‘Improved health outcomes achieved. The overall impact of the Organization sits at the highest
Organisation (WHO)15 level of the results chain, with eight impact goals. Outcomes can combine in different ways to
contribute towards one or more impacts.’
Definisi dampak
Dampak
Under
Positif
supply
Aktivitas
Over
Negatif
Supply
Tidak
mempertimbang
kan dampak
Dampak
Pertimbangan pengukuran
Makna dampak
• Counterfactual use • Application
• Boundless use • Scope
• Results-chain use • Subject and level of change
• Environmental • Degrees of separation between
sustainability use intervention and impact
• Colloquial use. • Immediacy, rate and durability
of change
• Homogeneity of benefits
Counterfactual use
Ton/Ha
• Dampak dimaknai Dengan program
• Kesejahteraan yang
dicapai harus
mempertimbangkan
ekosistem /
lingkungan
Ilustrasi
7,04
5,72
5,01
4,71 4,72 4,77
3,83
2,52
4. Alat untuk
1. mengumpu- 7.
Pendekatan 3. Indikator kan data Menyajikan
2, Fokus 5. Rencana 6.
pengumpulan Mengelola
data data
Beberapa Contoh Indicator
Dampak
Beberapa Contoh Indicator
Dampak
Benefit Cost
Menilai Dampak
Privat
Konsep dasar CBA: Benefit sosial dan
ekonomi kesejahteraan cost sosial
Eksternalitas
Analisis Sensitivitas
Benefit Cost Rasio (B/C Rasio)
Kriteria penilaian atas B/C rasio adalah jika nilainya lebih besar
dari satu maka proyek dapat dilanjutkan tetapi jika B/C Rasio
kurang dari satu maka proyek sebaiknya dihentikan.
Net Present Value
Net Present Value adalah suatu angka yang menunjukkan jumlah
keuntungan yang akan diterima di masa yang akan datang yang
dinilai dengan nilai uang pada saat ini.
Kriteria penilaian untuk NVP adalah jika NVP lebih besar dari nol
maka proyek dapat diteruskan karena manfaat masih lebih besar
dari biaya yang ditanggung proyek. Sebaliknya apabila NVP
bernilai negatif maka sebaiknya proyek dihentikan.
Jika nilai IRR sama atau lebih besar dari nilai suku bunga maka suatu
proyek dinyatakan layak. Sebaliknya jika nilai IRR lebih kecil atau kurang
dari tingkat bunga maka proyek tersebut tidak layak untuk dikerjakan.
Payback Period
Analisis Payback Period digunakan untuk
mengestimasi waktu yang dibutuhkan
oleh suatu proyek untuk mengembalikan
investasi modal yang ditanam. Semakin
pendek waktuyang dibutuhkan maka
semakin baik proyek yang bersangkutan.
Rumus:
Nilai investasi
--------------------------------
(benefit-cost) + depresiasi
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