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Feasibility Study of Belitung Hotel Project (Case Study PT Xyz)
Feasibility Study of Belitung Hotel Project (Case Study PT Xyz)
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internal rate of retuurn and payyback period d with a briief explanattion of markket feasibilitty and legall
feasibilitty.
Literatuure Review
Feasibility study is a tool to conttrol, analyze and evaluate the propossed project t to identify th he
opportunities, costs and benefits and hopefu ully can provvide some so olutions to suupport business decision
making w with the goaal for the pro oject will succceed basis on owner's asssumptions o of how the p project will
run. (Alaan Thompson, 2005). Hospitality is a businesses tthat sell servvice and intangible valuee to the
customeer. Starting f from the initiation of inveestor from B Belitung, PT X XYZ saw an opportunityy and
wanted t to capture th he middle claass market. They initiateed to build a 3 star hotel,, and cooperrate with
Mileston ne Pacific Group that serrves as a hoteel operator o or hotel man nagement off the project.. They begin
the projeect since 20113.
Capital
Cost of C
A busineess can be fu unded from i investors and loans depeending on th he amount o of capital req quired to run n
the business. Therefore, cost off capital can n be derivedd from the combination
c of debt andd equity. To
o
calculatee the overalll cost of capital is derivved from a weighted average of all capital sources called d
WACC (W Weight Averrage Cost of Capital). The cost of cap pital would bbe used to disscount futurre cash flowss
from thee potential project, estim mate the NPV V and abilityy to generatee value.
Weight A Average Cosst of Capital is used to measure cost of capital of a firm by ap pproach its proportion off
finance in debt and equity must equal 1 or 100%. It alsso reflects the expected d average fu uture cost off
capital.TThe formula to find weighted average cost of cap pital is:
debt
Cost of d
Accordin ng to Damo
odaranto esttimate the cost
c of debtt if the firm
m is not rateed the firm can
c use thee
interest rate of receent long‐terrm loan or eestimate a syynthetic ratting for the company to o arrive at a
a
default spread and a cost of debt.
d Cost off debt also aassociated with funds ra
w aised through long‐term m
borrowin ng. When co ompanies bo orrow funds f from outsidee or take deb bt the interest paid in thaat amount itt
called coost of debt. T
The interestt from company debt is a a deductiblee expense an nd discounted by the taxx
rate.Thee formula to find cost of d debt using coupon rate i s:
Equity
Cost of E
To deterrmine the co ost of equity author will b
be using cap
pital asset prricing model approach. A According to o
Welch, D
Damodaran and Gittman, to calcula ate NPV, a c company neeed to use a formula that links riskk
(market t beta) and r return (expeected rate off return) so can determiine the apprropriate costt of capital,,
and Cap pital Asset P Pricing Modeel or CAPM is a formula a to estimatte project reeturn while c compensatee
investorr risk by usin
ng variancee and beta to
t measures s the non‐divversifiable risk.The
r formmula to find
d
capital a
asset pricing model:Cost of Capital
Beta coeefficient
Accordinng to Damodaran and R Ross beta is an index off degree of m movement that shows t
t the securityy
returns covariance.. It indicates the sensittivity of seccurity return
ns against market
m risk by showing
g
changess in the assett and markett returns. To o estimate co ost of equityy need to usee levered beta. Beta can n
be obtained from comparable
c companies.. To get levvered beta or unlevered d beta from
m compared d
company use the equation show wn below.
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Growth Rate
Growth rate is an estimate
e of the
t number of variabless derived fro
om the sale of a good company
c orr
assets off a companyy to examine developments within a specified tim me.
Stable G
Growth
Stable growth mean ns the busineess will be esstimated thaat will go connstant foreveer. But theree is a limit on
n
how high it can be siince a firm caannot grow higher than the overall g growth rate o
of the econo omy.
Gordon Growth Ratte
Gordon growth rate e is a formulaa to determiining the vallue of a com
mpanies that expected w will grow at aa
constantt rate with it ts assumptioon that valuee is equal to the sum of its future dividends. Beccause of the e
simplicitty it is used for compan nies with lo
ow to moderrate growth rates.The formula
f to find
f Gordon
n
growth r
rate isEquatiion 1 Gordon n Growth Rate
Termina al Value
Accordin ng to Damod daranin a prroject with a an infinite orr very long lif ife, we need
d to computee cash flowss
for a rea asonable perriod and theen compute a a terminal vvalue for thiss project, wh hich is the prresent valuee
of all caash flows tha at occur after the estim mation period d ends. It is used in cash
h flow valuattion to studyy
cash flow w projection beyond thee year‐time p period while expecting sttable growth h rate.
Deprecia ation and Am mortization
When a business ow wner buy an a asset, the assset will losess its value ovver time and the current v
value must
be accou unted for thee company’ss balance sheeet. Depreciaation is a meethod of alloccating the co ost of a
tangiblee asset over it ts useful life as for amortization is allocating cost of intangib ble assets oveer its useful
life. In a real time de
epreciation and amortizaation are not cash expensses and didn n’t reduce cassh flows but
it reducee taxable income and taxxes paid by a a business. To determine e cash flows project, depreciation
and amo ortization neeed to be add ded back to n net income. The formulaa to determine current assset value is
:
Straightt‐line method will be useed in this paaper. This method
m will charge
c the company wit
c th the same e
amount each year over
o period until the value of the aasset has red duced from the original cost to the
e
salvage v
value. The saalvage valuee is an estimaate value of t the asset by the compan ny.
Formulaa:Equation
2 S
Straight‐Line Methods
Cash Flo ow
Cash floow is a projection of commpany’s revenue stream either cash i n or out of the companyy and shows
changes in a specific time period. Determining companyy’s cash flow w is an imporrtant factor b
because the
value of investm ment made b by a firm dep
pends on thee timing of cash flow. Alsso it can be u
used as
informaation about t the situation
n of the companies and c
company finaancial streng gthOperating cash flow
is th
he revenue sttream that g generated byy company bbusiness operations. It ind dicates whetther the
company is able to g generate possitive cash flo
ow and mainntain grow of its operatio ons. Formulaa:Equation 33
Op
perating Cash Flow
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Free cassh flow is a number of cash that company
c haad and used in capital investment
i to repair orr
replace, pay dividen nds and deb
bt or for thee company'ss expansion project to increase gro
owth. It alsoo
reflects a
as company ability to geenerate cash, which is fun ndamental b basis for stocck pricing.
Formulaa:Equaior
ee C
Cash Flow
or Fr
ee Cash Flo
ow
Time Weeighted Cash h Flow
Accordin ng to Damod daran the va alue of cashh flows now are worth m more than in n later yearss because off
the infla
ation makinng the value
e of money decreases
d ovver time callled time va
alue of moneey. The firm
m
needs too value cash
h flow throu
ugh time called discoun nting and coompounding g. The purpo
ose of time‐‐
weighted cash flow is to comparre and aggreegate cash fllow from diffferent points in time and d brought in n
to the saame point in n time. Compounding is a calculating g process off when preseent cash flow w is taken to o
the future. Discounting means a calculating process of b bring the futu ure cash flow w to the pressent value.
Net Pressent Value
Time will decrease t the value of f the money which makees the value amount of money now w is differentt
with thee value in the e future. To avoid the time value of money, thee future amo ount of moneey has to be e
discountted to reflecct as if its current
c value
e today which called prresent value. Thus NPV is a tool in
n
discountted cash flow w analysis beecause not o only to meassure the chan nges in cash flow it also can show off
how much value an investment or project ad dds to the firm by subtraacting a projject initial investment off
flows discou
its cash f unted at a ratte equal to th he firm cost of capital.
Formulaa:Equatio
n 4
4 Net Presen nt Value
The decision criteriaa if NPV of t the project g
greater than n 0 increase stockholderrs return and d accept the e
project aand if NPV of project below 0 decreaase stockhold ders return a and reject the project.
Profitabbility Index
Accordin ng to Gitman,2012 proffitability ind
dex is a varia
ation of thee NPV, profitability indeex is total off
present value of cash h inflow divided by the in
nitial investm
ment. The de ecision rule t
to invest in t he project iss
when thhe profitabilitty index greater than 1.0 0 because it implies thatt the presen nt value of caash inflow iss
than the initial investmeent. The NPV
greater t V and PI methods will alw ways come to o the same c conclusion.
Formulaa : Profitabilitty Index
Internall Rate of Retturn and Modified Intern nal Rate of R Return
Accordinng to Gitmaan, Internal rate of retu
urn or IRR of
o the projeect will be compared
c w
with minimall
standarrd rate of retturn or hurdlle rate of th he company. IRR is the raate of return that the firmm will earn iff
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they invest in the prroject. The IR RR obtained
d when the p
projects NPV
V equals Zero
o or project’s cash flowss
are equaal to the project’s costs.
Formulaa : Rate of Reeturn
Decision n rule,
If the IRRR > firm costt of capital thhen accept t he project
If the IRRR < firm costt of capital thhen reject th he project
While th he internal raate of returnn (IRR) assum mes the cash h flows from a project arre reinvestedd at the IRR,,
the mod dified IRR assumes that positive cash flows are reinvested a at the firm's cost of capital, and the e
initial ou
utlays are fin
nanced at th
he firm's financing cost. Therefore, MIRR more
e accurately reflects the
e
cost and d profitabilityy of a projectt. The formu ula to find MIRR is:Equation 5 Modified
Paybackk Period
Paybackk period is thhe time in which the
w initial cash outflow of inveestment is expected to
e be recoverss
from thee cash inflow ws generated by the invvestment. Paayback perio od or PP is aa simple calcculation thatt
shows thhe time requ uired for thee cash inflow
w surpass thee initial invesstment of th he project an
nd when the e
firm beg
gan to generrate profits. The formulaa must be ad djusted depe ends on the cash flow off the projectt
per perio
od whether e even or unevven.Formulaa:
When caash inflows a
are uneven, we need to calculate th
he cumulative net cash f
low for each
h period and
d
use the f
following forrmula:
The disaadvantage off simple payyback period d calculation is not considering the time value off money. An n
alternative procedure called disscounted payback perio od which acccounts the time value of
o money byy
discountting the cash inflows off the projectts. In discou
unted payback period we
w have to calculate the
e
present value of each cash inflow w taking the start of the first period a as zero pointt.
Formulaa: Eq
uaation 6 Discoounted Payback P Period
Methodology
To answwer the research objective author usee systematical methodology steps off problem identification,,
literaturre review, daata collection, data analysis and con nclusion. Eacch step will be correlateed to one off
another to determin ne the conclu usion of the project. Befo
ore conducting a researcch first we mmust identifyy
a probleem incurred w within the company. Aftter to be able to identifyy the problem of the ressearcher willl
develop the problemm found to c create the g
goal of the reesearch. Thee theme of t this study iss hospitality..
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The problem of thee project is to
t establishiing Belitung g Hotel in Taanjungpandaan. The purpose of thiss
researchh project is to o analyze wh hether the bu usiness is proofitable and feasible or n not.
Analysiss
The tax rate used is 25% derived d from the inncome tax prrovisions applicable in In ndonesia. Rissk Free Rate e
of 8.18%% refers to avverage rate of Governm ment Securities (SUN) isssued updated April 2014 4 taken from m
site of B
BI.go.id, thesse options arre taken because SUN is one of the l ong‐term in nvestments t that have no o
risk. Thee risk premiu um obtained d from Damodaran sitess is 8.30%. A As for intere est rate applicable is 9% %
and the levered betaa of 1.22 obttained from c comparable companies s since PT XYZ Z doesn’t haave beta yet.
From the data taken n the weighteed average c cost of capitaal is 10.33%.
The asseet of value investment will
w be deprreciated over time so th he depreciation expensee of tangible e
asset assumed of 1.9 billion rup piah and for the intangib ble asset will be using amortization
a n expense off
194.6 million rupiah. After findingoperating g cash flow b bysubtract re evenue with operation e expense and d
the termminal value i s the value of the busin ness after ecconomic lifettime obtaineed from projjecting cash h
flow at t
the end of period, the acccumulated present valu ue of free caash flow from m year 0 to t the terminall
value is the NPV of this project of Rp1,362,042,381,704 4 as shown in n table 2 and the profitaability indexx
obtained d by divide the total present valuee with initiaal investmen nt so the prrofitability inndex of thiss
project i s 9.5.The IRR can be ach hieved by using trial and error to find d when net p present valuee equal to 0.
The calcculation on taable 3shows the NPV of t the project w will be equal to 0 when t he discount rate is equall
to 43.7%
%. Unlike the e IRR to gett MIRR we need
n to com
mpound the free
f cash floow of the prroject. MIRRR
projectin ng returns wwhen the pro oject requiress a minimum m reinvestme ent rate of 1 10.33% is at MIRR 55.5% %
as shown in the tablle 3.The payback period calculation need to find d when the p project start to generate e
positive profit. The positive valu ue of this prroject attained in year 6 6 with a proffit of Rp 59,924,018,7077
and negative values are in year 5 5 of (Rp 14,9929,317,948). By knowing g negative and positive y year, known n
the payb back period of this projeect is 5 yearss and 2 mon nth. The resu ults of the caalculation off discounted d
paybackk period byy discountin ng operating g cash floww obtained positive value in yeaar 6 at Rp p
21,798,2282,944 and negative vaalue at year 5 at (Rp 19 9,696,521,04 40). From the calculation n below the
e
discountted payback period of th his project is 5 year and 5 months.
After all the data is collected an nd processed d to obtain th he output, the last step is to analyzee the outputt
to get a financial feaasibility concclusions. The e comparison will be in a accordance t to the standaard financiall
provision to determine whether PT XYZ sho ould have to accept the h hotel projectt investmentt or not. The e
Net Pressent Value of
o the project generates a positive value of Rp p 1,362,042,3391,704 and it’s greaterr
than 0 then the inveestment of t his project w
was acceptab ble. The proofitability ind dex of the prroject showss
result off 9.5 and gre
eater than 1 1 so the projject was accceptable.Thee project IRR R is 43.7% annd currentlyy
above th he minimum m acceptablee rate of retu urn of 10.33% % then the in
nvestment o of this projecct should be e
accepted d. While thee MIRR is thee IRR when the reinvesttment rate is s equal to hurdle rate. T The MIRR off
this projject is 55.5%
%. If the proj
oject has MIRRR greater than
t requireed rate of reeturn of 43.77% then thiss
project s should be acccepted. As from the calculation thee payback peeriod of the project is 5 years and 2 2
months and its still i n desired economic lifettime and indicates that t he project w was acceptab ble. Considerr
the timee value of mo oney the ressult of discou unted paybaack period off the projectt is 5 years an nd 5 month..
The disccounted payb back period is still in desired econom mic lifetime t hen the project should b be accepted.
Although the return n in conservvative assum mption is accceptable, PT P XYZ need d to know the
t realisticc
number to maintain n the hotel o operator. Usiing safety occcupancy ratte assumptio on of 65% th he result forr
the analysis is Net P Present Valuee for safety r rate is Rp 2,5512,004,324,803. It’s a p positive valuee and biggerr
than 0 th han the project is accepttable. The Prrofitability In ndex for safe ety rate is 211.5 and its grreater than 1 1
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shows the project iss acceptablee. Internal Rate
R of Retu
urn of the prroject was 101.4%
1 and higher thann
hurdle raate of 10.33% % which means the projject was acceptable.Mod dified Internal Rate of Return of the e
project w
when reinveestment ratee equal as ratte of return is 103.5% an nd its bigger than IRR w which meanss
the projject is accep
ptable.Payback Period of this project is 1 yeaars and 7 month
m using safety rate
e
occupan ncy assumpttion and still in desired economic value
v so thee project is acceptable. Discounted d
Paybackk Period of th he project is 1 years and 8 month using safety ratte occupancy assumptio on and still inn
the desirred economic value so th he project is acceptable.
Conclusion
From staatistic data 2 2010 obtaineed from BPS S Indonesia ttotal populattion of Bangka Belitung is 1.223.296 6
lives divvided by malle population for 635.09 94 lives and women for 588.202 livees. As for data local and d
international visitors who visits and stay att hotel in 20012 amounteed to 0.9% for
f internatio onal visitorss
and 99.11% for domestic visitorss. The intern national visitors most of them preffer to stay at 4 & 5 starr
hotels ass for the dom mestic tourisst most of th hem prefer to o stay at 3‐sttar hotel. Th hus from the data can be e
assumed d that domeestic visitorss are more dominant
d th
han international visitorrs and domeestic visitorss
prefer too spend thee night in a 3 star hoteel. Then theere is potenttial market for 3 star hotel.
h Based d
governm ment regulattion there’s n no laws and regulation t that prohibit hospitalityy business in n the area off
construcction. Based on the city planning deepartment reegulations, t the current construction n area is thee
location for trade &
& service business and the t maximum height off the buildin ng is 4 floorrs. Then thee
conclusions are no prohibition
p to
t get hotel licensing deevelopment and operatiions. From the t result off
financial analysis of Net Presentt Value, Proffitability Index, Internal Rate of Return and Payyback Period d
all conclude the pro oject was accceptable.Th he occupanccy rate can indicate thee situation of o the hotell
operatio on. The safeety number of occupan ncy rate can be using as an indiccator of min nimum rate e
agreemeent with ho otel operator, so the ho otel operato or need to provide pro omotion and d marketing g
strategiees to ensuree that the saffety numberr wont be reeached. From m the conclu usion the saffety numberr
of 65% w will give PT XYZ high reeturn and increase firm wealth in 2 years with e estimate retturn 101.4%.
Based on the conclu usion the investment pro oject of Belitung hotel is feasible to i mplement a and could be e
a good f foundation f for PT XYZ aas the projecct generates positive NPV that can in ncrease firm m wealth and d
value off the compaany if they continue th heir project all the wayy in the futture and haas attractive e
profitability index.
Recomm mendation
Based oon the conclu usion obtain ned from the analysis of the data author
a concllude that im mplementing g
Belitung g hotel projeect is recommended for PT XYZ so they can increase firm wealth. Butt to increase e
firm weaalth author s suggest for PT XYZ to n not only dep pend on one project as t they need to o spread the e
risk andd not taking g the risk on
o one baskket.Belitung is famous for its beaautiful sceneery and the e
governm ment intende ed Bangka B Belitung Islan nd as an tourism object, author sugg gest that PT XYZ should d
do furth her research h on markeet analysis to determine approprriate busineess target market m andd
strategyy.Author sug ggest to PT T XYZ to determine
d th
he safety numbers and d negotiate with hotell
operator. This numb ber will be the minimum m rate for PT T XYZ to maaintain and c control the o operation off
hotel pro oject.
Table an nd Figures
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Table 1 Weighted Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital Calculation
Interest Rate 9%
Tax Rate 25%
Debt Ratio 69%
Beta 1.22
Cost Of Equity 18.31%
Cost Of Debt 6.75%
Cost Of Capital 10.33%
Table 2 Net Present Value
Free Cash Flow (in Discounted FCF (in Cumulative DFCF (in
Year Rp) Rp) Rp)
0 (20,946,000,000) (20,946,000,000) (20,946,000,000)
1 (20,478,526,631) (18,560,761,893) (39,506,761,893)
2 9,366,491,382 7,694,335,556 (31,812,426,338)
3 10,318,178,567 7,682,354,013 (24,130,072,325)
4 4,241,663,146 2,862,361,914 (21,267,710,411)
5 2,568,875,587 1,571,189,371 (19,696,521,040)
6 74,853,336,656 41,494,803,984 21,798,282,944
7 80,397,300,132 40,394,395,200 62,192,678,144
8 86,786,639,516 39,521,153,324 101,713,831,468
9 92,240,989,568 38,071,306,712 139,785,138,179
10 99,694,419,488 37,294,240,818 177,079,378,997
Terminal
Year 3,167,625,780,244 1,184,963,002,706 1,362,042,381,704
Total 3,586,669,147,656 1,362,042,381,704
Discount rate 10.33%
NPV 1,362,042,381,704
PI 9.45
Table 3 Internal Rate of Return
Free Cash Flow Cumulative FCF Discounted FCF Cumulative
Year (inRp) (inRp) (inRp) DFCF (in Rp)
(20,946,000,00 (20,946,000,00 (20,946,000,00 (20,946,000,00
0 0) 0) 0.00) 0.00)
(20,478,526,631 (41,424,526,631 (14,247,815,999 (35,193,815,999.
1 ) ) .49) 49)
(32,058,035,249 4,533,943,660.2 (30,659,872,339.
2 9,366,491,382 ) 2 27)
(21,739,856,681 3,474,976,016.1 (27,184,896,323
3 10,318,178,567 ) 6 .11)
(26,191,014,979
4 4,241,663,146 (17,498,193,535) 993,881,343.53 .57)
(14,929,317,948 (25,772,230,069
5 2,568,875,587 ) 418,784,910.34 .23)
8,490,019,897.6 (17,282,210,171.
6 74,853,336,656 59,924,018,708 5 58)
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6,344,371,408.1 (10,937,838,763.
7 80,397,300,132 140,321,318,839 4 45)
4,764,853,994.8 (6,172,984,768.
8 86,786,639,516 227,107,958,356 2 62)
3,523,467,494.4 (2,649,517,274.1
9 92,240,989,568 319,348,947,924 9 3)
2,649,517,274.1
10 99,694,419,488 419,043,367,412 3 (0.00)
Terminal 3,167,625,780,2 3,586,669,147,6
Year 44 55
3,586,669,147,6
Total 55 (0.00)
IRR 43.7%
MIRR 55.5%
Table 4 Net Present Value of Safety Rate
Free Cash Flow (in Discounted FCF (in Cumulative DFCF (in
Year Rp) Rp) Rp)
0 (20,946,000,000) (20,946,000,000) (20,946,000,000)
1 4,314,243,993 3,910,323,367 (17,035,676,633)
2 27,805,805,154 22,842,909,306 5,807,232,673
3 33,620,613,656 25,033,959,571 30,841,192,244
4 40,147,166,956 27,094,852,096 57,936,044,340
5 46,907,146,896 28,693,192,285 86,629,236,624
6 129,475,976,415 71,785,547,280 158,414,783,904
7 139,360,433,453 70,031,798,465 228,446,582,369
8 150,435,678,150 68,519,566,914 296,966,149,283
9 162,031,036,105 66,891,346,834 363,857,496,117
10 175,032,075,080 65,493,370,775 429,350,866,892
Terminal
Year 5,565,924,491,273 2,082,653,457,911 2,512,004,324,803
Total 6,454,108,667,131 2,512,004,324,803
Discount rate 10.33%
NPV 2,512,004,324,803
PI 21.5
Table 5 Rate of Return of Safety Rate
Year / (in Rp) Free Cash Flow Cumulative FCF Discounted FCF Cumulative FCF
(20,946,000,00 (20,946,000,00
0 (20,946,000,000) (20,946,000,000) 0) 0)
(18,804,225,115
1 4,314,243,993 (16,631,756,007) 2,141,774,885 )
2 27,805,805,154 11,174,049,147 6,852,889,233 (11,951,335,882)
3 33,620,613,656 44,794,662,803 4,113,514,112 (7,837,821,771)
4 40,147,166,956 84,941,829,760 2,438,548,390 (5,399,273,381)
5 46,907,146,896 131,848,976,655 1,414,440,263 (3,984,833,118)
6 129,475,976,415 261,324,953,070 1,938,223,727 (2,046,609,391)
7 139,360,433,453 400,685,386,523 1,035,674,582 (1,010,934,809)
8 150,435,678,150 551,121,064,673 555,013,818 (455,920,991)
9 162,031,036,105 713,152,100,778 296,770,190 (159,150,800)
10 175,032,075,080 888,184,175,859 159,150,800 (0)
239
Arsanti and Murtaqi / Journal of Business and Management, Vol.3, No.2, 2014: 231‐240
Terminal 5,565,924,491,27
Year 3 6,454,108,667,131
6,454,108,667,13
Total 1 0
IRR 101.4%
MIRR 103.5%
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