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Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

Article  in  Global and Planetary Change · October 2007

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.022

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Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159 – 174

www.elsevier.com/locate/gloplacha

Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

B. Blair Fitzharris a,⁎, Gareth R. Clare a , Jim Renwick b
a
Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
b
National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 14901, Wellington, New Zealand
Available online 29 December 2006

Abstract

Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods
(1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods.
Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear
to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface
temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in
atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern
Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking
events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the
Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific
Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region
and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: glacier retreat and advance; Southern Hemisphere teleconnections; atmospheric circulation; sea surface temperatures; Andes;
New Zealand

1. Introduction circumpolar westerly wind belt, so are likely to be

Temperate alpine glaciers, such as those in Southern
Alps of New Zealand and the Andes, are of considerable
interest. First, glaciers of these mountain chains contain
the two largest groups of temperate ice in the Southern
Hemisphere. Second, with the advent of global warm-
ing, there is a concern about their future behaviour,
because they are important for tourism and water supply,
and rapid changes in glaciers can create hazards that
threaten the safety of people. Third, the glaciers of the
Southern Alps and those in southern Chile and Argen-
tina are situated within, or at the northern fringe of the
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +64 3 479 8774; fax: +64 3 479 9037.
E-mail address: bbf@geography.otago.ac.nz (B.B. Fitzharris).
0921-8181/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.022
sensitive to changes in the strength and latitudinal extent
of this belt. Fourth, the glaciers of the Andes and the
Southern Alps are surrounded by vast areas of ocean and
those in the westerlies have high mass inputs and
outputs. Such glaciers tend to be very responsive to
climate change (Oerlemans, 1992), so can provide
valuable insights as to key relationships. Fifth, response
of glaciers to climate indices such as ENSO events, is
gaining attention at regional level (e.g. Hooker and
Fitzharris 1999; Depetris and Pasquini, 2000; Arnaud
et al., 2001). Finally, variability within and over the
Southern Ocean, may exert an important role on glacier
behaviour, but such influences are largely unknown. For
these reasons, comparing the response of Andean
glaciers with those in New Zealand could lead to better
160 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
understanding of climate linkages and improved
predictions of future behaviour of temperate ice in the
Southern Hemisphere.
There are multiple reasons as to why decadal-scale
changes in atmospheric circulation might affect glacier
behaviour. For example, the pressure gradient and flow
regime over a mountain system controls both wind
direction and speed, and hence the magnitude of
orographic uplift and amount of precipitation. As suc-
cessive regional and hemispheric circulation regimes
prevail, these gradients will change, as will the nature of
air masses and frequency of frontal activity. In turn,
these will alter precipitation, cloudiness, albedo and
ablation and so affect the mass balance of glaciers.
When circulation changes are sustained over decades,
then mass balance anomalies will eventually be reflected
in glacier length changes. Sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) also affect prevailing air masses and control air
temperature and humidity gradients over glaciers. These
will influence the amount of precipitation, the frequency
of rain versus snow events and the energy balance for
ablation. Thus sustained anomalies in SSTs are further
factors that might control glacier accumulation and
ablation.
In the example of New Zealand, wholesale retreat of
Southern Alps glaciers over the last century is generally
attributed to regional warming (e.g., Salinger et al.,
1983). However, reversals within this pattern, with re-
treat switching to advance, have been related to regional
precipitation increases (Suggate, 1950; Hessell, 1983;
Brazier et al. 1992; Woo and Fitzharris, 1992). These are
caused by demonstrable changes in atmospheric circu-
lation patterns, namely the strength of the westerly wind
flow across the mountains and changes in latitude of the
subtropical high pressure system (e.g., Hessell, 1983;
Fitzharris et al., 1992; Hooker and Fitzharris, 1999). The
suggestion is that stronger westerlies increase orograph-
ic uplift, reduce ablation and give positive mass bal-
ances. On the other hand, when the subtropical high
pressure system is more dominant, frontal activity is
diminished, the air masses tend to be drier and favour
ablation, there is less cloud and more melt (Hay and
Fitzharris, 1988; Hooker and Fitzharris, 1999). The net
result is a tendency towards negative mass balances.
In recent times, the nature of climatic variability in
the Southern Hemisphere has been better defined. For
example, identification of the Antarctic Oscillation
(AAO) recognizes that there is an out-of-phase rela-
tionship between geopotential heights over the higher
latitudes, and those at mid-latitudes. This behaviour in
atmospheric circulation patterns is also known as the
high-latitude mode (HLM), or the Southern Annular
Mode (SAM) (Kidson, 1988; Karoly, 1990; Thompson
and Wallace, 2000; Thompson et al., 2000). An An-
tarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW, White and Peterson,
1996) is proposed and refers to migration of alternate
warmer and cooler water bodies around the Southern
Ocean with 4-yr periodicity, with consequent effects on
climate variability around the Southern Hemisphere. An
Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been de-
scribed (e.g. Mantua et al., 1997; Power et al., 1999;
Salinger et al., 2001) modulates Southern Oscillation
teleconnections and possibly controls their behaviour on
inter-decadal time scales (e.g. relative frequency and
intensity of El Niño and La Niña events).
Recent research has extended these ideas to large-
scale climate indices. For example, Fitzharris et al.
(1997) identified a relationship between glacier mass
balance and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The
SOI is a measure of the monthly sea level pressure
differences between Tahiti (17.5°S, 149.6°W) in the
South Pacific and Darwin (12.4°S, 130.9°E) in Australia
and represents a major redistribution of air and water
masses in the Pacific over periods of several years.
When the SOI is strongly positive, La Niña conditions
prevail. When the SOI is strongly negative, then El Niño
prevails. El Nino conditions are associated on average
with enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand and
higher than normal precipitation in the Southern Alps,
and give rise to positive glacier mass balances. Con-
versely, La Niña conditions are associated with weak-
ened westerlies over New Zealand and reduced
precipitation in the Southern Alps, and give rise to
negative glacier mass balances (Fitzharris et al., 1997;
Salinger and Mullan, 1999). Similarly in South
America, glacier behaviour has been related to higher
El Niño frequencies and stronger westerly flow ano-
malies over Patagonia (Depetris and Pasquini, 2000).
However, few studies attempt to relate glacier re-
sponse to hemisphere-scale changes in atmospheric
circulation or SSTs. These suggest that there are im-
portant linkages between glacier responses in widely
different regions (Tyson et al., 1997; Mote, 1998,
Washington et al. 2000; Clare et al., 2002). For
example, Tyson et al. (1997) identified an 18–20-yr
oscillation that linked advance of the Franz Josef
glacier with extended periods of drought in Southern
Africa. They hypothesised that this inter-decadal tele-
connection is through a rearrangement in hemisphere
circulation patterns, which simultaneously alter the
atmospheric circulation over both regions, but pro-
duced no data to demonstrate this. Clare et al. (2002)
showed that variations in annual glacier end-of-
summer-snowlines in the Southern Alps, which are a
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
surrogate for mass balance, are linked with regional
SST anomalies. Higher or lower than normal snowlines
are due to distinctive circulation patterns around the
Southern Hemisphere, some of which have centers of
action near to South America. Their study demonstrat-
ed that hemispheric teleconnections do exist, but
included only a few years of analysis and did not
consider Andean glaciers. There is a clear need to
extend these ideas by re-examining glacier behaviour
for the key glacier regions of the Southern Alps and
Andes and relating changes to the wider atmospheric
circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.
The aim of this paper is to examine the hypothesis
that teleconnections exist between advance and retreat
of glaciers in the Andes and in the Southern Alps of
New Zealand. Key elements investigated are large-scale
shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation and of SSTs
around the Southern Hemisphere. The main accent is on
the last half of the 20th Century. It builds on the research
of Tyson et al. (1997) and Hooker and Fitzharris (1999),
by examining the marked retreat and advance phases of
the glaciers in the Southern Alps since the 1950s, but
now compares this behaviour of glaciers in the Andes.
Next, these glacier changes are related to atmospheric
circulation and SST patterns for the whole Southern
Hemisphere to explore any associated patterns and
teleconnections.
2. Methodology
2.1. Glacier fluctuations in the Southern Alps
Fluctuations of New Zealand glaciers over the last
100 yr are documented by photographs and glacier
monitoring measurements (Suggate, 1950; Sara, 1968;
Anderton and Chinn, 1978; Salinger et al., 1983;
Gellatly, 1985; Bishop and Forsyth, 1988; Fitzharris
et al., 1992; Chinn, 1995; Chinn, 1996; Chinn, 1999).
Since the end of the Little Ice Age in the Southern Alps
(about 1850), they have shortened in length by 38%
(Chinn, 1996) and lost 40–45 km3 of their original
100 km3 of ice (Ruddell, 1995). At the turn of the 20th
Century, slow glacier retreat had begun, but with periods
of minor re-advance. Beginning in the late 1950s, retreat
became much more rapid and widespread, although
there was a minor re-advance in the mid-1960s. How-
ever, from the early 1980s to about 1999, substantial
advances (by up to 10% of length) occurred in ap-
proximately 40–50% of small mountain glaciers and
steep valley glaciers such as the Franz Josef and Fox
glaciers (Chinn, 1999). These have reaction times of a
decade or less.
161
2.2. Glacier fluctuations in the Andes
In the Andes, the situation appears more complex,
because reaction times of the larger glaciers there are of
the order of many decades, and because of the vast
latitudinal extent of glaciers from the tropics to high
latitudes. However, discernable patterns are evident.
Tropical glaciers in the Andes of Venezuela, Peru and
Bolivia have generally retreated over the 20th Century
(Ribstein et al., 1995; Kaser, 1999). They were stable at
the turn of the century till 1920, and then underwent
marked retreat from 1920 to 1950. Some small advance
up to about 1970 was followed by accelerated retreat for
the remainder of the 20th Century (Ramírez et al., 2001;
Francou et al., 2003). A progressive rise of snowline
elevation is observed by Arnaud et al. (2001) on a
Bolivian glacier on Sajama volcano from 1963 to 1998.
The accelerated retreat since about 1980 is possibly
related to increased air temperatures and humidity
(Kaser, 1999), while Francou et al. (2003) note the role
of changing precipitation on glacier mass balance —
less precipitation since the early 1980s has decreased
albedo.
In the southern Andes, glaciers of Patagonia have
shown a pattern of generalised retreat during the 20th
Century, which has accelerated in recent decades (Kaser
et al., 1996). In the Southern Patagonia Ice Field, which
is the largest ice body in the Southern Hemisphere
outside of Antarctica, glacier fronts in the east have been
in wholesale retreat (Rivera and Casassa, 1999). For
example, the Upsala glacier has retreated about 60 m
yr− 1 over a 60-yr period (Malagnino and Strelin, 1992).
The area of the South Patagonia Ice Field diminished by
about 500 km2, or 4%, in four decades (Aniya et al.,
1996, 1997). Many glaciers (e.g., Soler, Tyndall) have
thinned substantially according to Aniya et al. (1997)
and Kadota et al. (1992). However, over the last two
decades several western glaciers have displayed static
termini, or they have advanced (e.g. Pio XI glacier,
Warren, 1994; Aniya et al., 1997).
Table 1
Generalised summary of fluctuations of glaciers in the Andes and the
Southern Alps of New Zealand over the second half of the 20th
Century
Region 1950s–1970s 1980s–1990s
Tropical Advance Retreat
Andes
Patagonia Retreat Retreat continues, but less widespread,
some western glaciers static or advanced
Southern Retreat Advance of many small mountain
Alps NZ and steeper valley glaciers
See text for references.
162 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174

2.3. Glacier definitions and time periods
It is possible to distinguish two distinct periods of
retreat and advance for small mountain glaciers
throughout the Alps (e.g. Stocking, Thurneyson, Dainty,
Crow) and steeper valley glaciers of the west (e.g. Franz
Josef, Fox, Spencer). There was a rapid recession in the
late 1950s to the 1970s; and a switch in the 1980s to a
subsequent notable advance as summarized in Table 1.
Given a reaction time of the order of 5–10 yr for the
glaciers that have followed this pattern (Chinn, 1999),
1954 is assumed to be the start of the climatic conditions
leading to the glacier retreat phase, and 1974 as the
approximate time of a turn around of climatic conditions
that resulted in the advance phase. Very large glaciers in
the east (e.g. Tasman) have a much longer reaction time,
are covered by a thick mantle of debris, and calve into
proglacial lakes, so their climatic response signal is
much harder to interpret.
While these phases are not exactly coincident with
those in the Andes, there are similarities and these are
generalised in Table 1. Many tropical Andean glaciers

Fig. 1. (A) Composite atmospheric circulation anomaly map (700 hPa pressure field) for P1 (1954–1974) during the ablation season. Solid (dashed)
lines indicate geopotential heights in meters that are higher (lower) than average for the period 1954–1994. Anomaly map for P2 is mirror image.
(B) Composite atmospheric circulation anomaly map (700 hPa pressure field) for P1 during the accumulation season. Solid (dashed) lines indicate
geopotential heights in meters that are higher (lower) than average for the period 1954–1994. Anomaly map for P2 is mirror image.
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174 163

Fig. 1 (continued ).

advanced from the 1950s to the 1970s, then retreated for
the following two decades. This behaviour is the op-
posite to that of glaciers in the Southern Alps, but with
the switch occurring about the same time. In Patagonia,
almost all glaciers have retreated since the 1950s, but
some in the west have advanced or have been static from
the 1980s. This behaviour is broadly similar to what has
occurred in the Southern Alps, although the advance
phase is less marked. Thus for the purposes of this paper,
two distinct 20-yr climate periods are defined: P1 (April
1954–March 1974); and P2 (April 1974–March 1994).
P1 and P2 are primarily based on the well defined switch
in behaviour of New Zealand glaciers, but also represent
an apparent change in the general glacial regime of the
Andes. The “glacier year” is defined as the 12 months
from April to March inclusive, and is divided into the
“accumulation season” (April to October), and the
“ablation season” (November to March).
2.4. Analysis of atmospheric circulation
Teleconnections between glacier responses in the
Andes and in the Southern Alps are explored by exam-
ining Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation
patterns as represented by 700 hPa geopotential height
fields for P1 and P2. The hypothesis to be tested is that
164 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174

circulation patterns around the Hemisphere, and their
associated climate indices, are distinctly different between
P1 and P2. The argument proposed is that hemispheric
scale changes in centres of atmospheric circulation and
climate indices alter the flow regime over the Southern
Alps and the Andes. Consequently key elements of the
mass balance, such as precipitation and ablation, will be
altered, so leading to changes in glacier length.
The 700 hPa height data are in metres. They are
utilised instead of mean sea level pressure data because
they are more representative of atmospheric circulation
patterns at glacier elevations. They also provide a broad
representation of troposphere atmospheric circulation
(Cayan et al., 1991; McCabe and Fountain, 1995). This
data was obtained from the National Centers for En-
vironmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project (Kistler
et al., 2001). This reanalysis data is the first such long
global time series to become available and provides
unprecedented opportunities to study variability in large-
scale atmospheric circulation patterns, especially in the
data sparse Southern Hemisphere (Renwick, 2004).

Fig. 2. (A) Composite sea surface temperature anomaly map for P1 during the ablation season. Solid (dashed) lines indicate sea surface temperatures
(°C) which are warmer (cooler) than average for the period 1954–1994. Anomaly map for P2 is mirror image. (B) Composite sea surface temperature
anomaly map for P1 during the accumulation season. Solid (dashed) lines indicate sea surface temperatures (°C) which are warmer (cooler) than
average for the period 1954–1994. Anomaly map for P2 is mirror image.
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174 165

Fig. 2 (continued ).

However, there is a number of issues relating to the
homogeneity of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis over the
Southern Hemisphere, due first to changes to the ob-
serving system, and second to errors in data processing.
Unfortunately, it has been found that these shortcomings
and model biases have resulted in secular changes in the
reanalysis time series which may not be real (Kistler
et al. 2001). Significant linear trends have been found
(Renwick and Revell, 1999; Thompson and Wallace,
2000), including a distinct tendency towards a positive
polarity of the AAO. As a result, it appears that some
changes in circulation features of the Southern Hemi-
sphere may be over-stated in the reanalysis data set
(Renwick, 2004). On the other hand, such trends are
consistent with recent observational analysis and
modelling work (Hartmann et al., 2000; Hall and
Visbeck, 2002; Thompson and Solomon, 2002). Hines
et al. (2000) in their examination of the NCEP–NCAR
reanalysis from 1949–1998, noted long-term surface
pressure reductions south of 45°S. These were of the
order of 0.20 hPa yr− 1, are stronger prior to 1969 and
weaken after 1970. Such trends are consistent with
surface pressure observations at Antarctic stations,
which show a slight decrease in sea level pressure
from 1979–1998. To avoid possible errors in depiction
of long-term trends in the reanalyses data, and following
166 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
Hines et al. (2000), the 700 hPa pressure fields are
detrended. The removal of this trend is also advocated
and described by Renwick and Revell (1999). This is
performed prior to any other processing by fitting a
temporal trend by linear regression at each grid point
and subtracting this from the data.
The 700 hPa geopotential data are values at
1200 UTC at 2.5° latitude–longitude resolution. Month-
ly averages are calculated for P1 and P2 at 5328 grid
locations over the Southern Hemisphere. Mean 700 hPa
geopotential heights at each grid location for the
Southern Hemisphere are calculated from the detrended
data for both P1 and P2. These data are compared with
long-term mean geopotential heights (1954–1994) at
each grid location to produce anomaly maps for P1 and
P2. Maps are prepared for both glacier ablation and
accumulation seasons. Anomalies are plotted onto
Southern Hemisphere maps using a Lambert azimuthal
equal-area projection centred on Antarctica. The
anomaly maps are used to identify locations of
climatological “centres of action” and to explore how
changes in these affect the flow regime over the Andes
and Southern Alps. Data at key grid points near these
centres of action are selected for time series analysis
(using the detrended data).
The SOI is an obvious climate index that might have
changed between P1 and P2. For example, there is
sufficient evidence to indicate that the SOI influences
glacier behaviour in the tropical Andes (Ribstein et al.,
1995; Arnaud et al., 2001; Wagnon et al., 2001; Francou
et al., 2003), in Patagonia (Depetris and Pasquini, 2000)
and in the Southern Alps (Fitzharris et al., 1997; Hooker
and Fitzharris, 1999; Clare et al., 2002). The SOI for P1
and P2 was obtained from the URL ftp://ftp.niwa.cri.nz/
incoming/soi/. The IPO, also known as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, is known to modulate the SOI at
the decadal-scale. This is similar to the reaction time of
high input–output maritime glaciers, so may be
implicated in their behaviour. The IPO is represented
by a standardised index based on low-frequency
fluctuations in sea surface temperature and data
were based on Folland et al. (2002) and Salinger
et al. (2001).
Time series are constructed for all climate indices
(height anomalies at centres of action, the SOI, and the
IPO index). These series are smoothed using a low-
frequency filter to remove short-term inter-annual vari-
ability. Mann–Whitney non-parametric tests (Hollander
and Wolfe, 1999) are applied to the smoothed data, so as
to test for statistically significant differences in the
climate indices between P1 and P2. Degrees of freedom
are set at 19 for each of P1 and P2. (Note here that
smoothing has implications for the number of degrees of
freedom, because it can be argued that such temporal
data are no longer independent — this influences the
level of significance and so could invalidate the test
(Santer et al., 2000). Using concepts discussed in Wilks
(1995), effective degrees of freedom in a time series are
the number of data points, scaled according to the first-
order autocorrelation. Based on sample calculations for
the data considered here, this procedure reduces the
degrees of freedom to about 5–6. On the other hand, use
of these small degrees of freedom when relating such
smoothed time series to glacier response is debatable
because changes in glacier length are themselves a
smoothed function of the climate).
2.5. Analysis of sea surface temperatures
Examples of SSTs as used in climatological studies
are found in Folland and Salinger (1995), Mullan (1998),
Clare et al. (2002), and Renwick (2002). SSTs affect the
character of air masses, particularly temperature and
humidity that flow over the Andes and Southern Alps
and impact on both accumulation and ablation of their
glaciers. Anomalies in SSTs may therefore be implicated
in glacier responses. Southern Hemisphere SST patterns
are constructed from the UK Meteorological Office
Historical Sea Surface Temperature Data Set version 5
(MOHSST5), for P1 and P2. This data set was obtained
from the UK Meteorological Office and originates from
the updated version of the Global Ocean Surface Tem-
perature Atlas (GOSTA) marine data set (Bottomley
et al., 1990). In remote areas of the Southern Ocean, data
for much of P1, which is prior to the era of remote
sensing, are dependent on relatively sparse ship traffic
and likely to be less reliable than for P2. SSTs are given
in degrees Celsius (°C) at grid locations every 2.5°
latitude/longitude (a total of 3188 grid points). SST mean
and anomaly maps are generated for the ablation and
accumulation seasons, for both P1 and P2.
3. Results
Fig. 1A and B illustrates mean atmospheric circula-
tion anomaly patterns of the Southern Hemisphere
during P1 for the ablation season and accumulation
seasons, respectively. Note that because the data are
processed in two 20-yr blocks, anomaly maps for P1 and
P2 are mirror images of each other — for the sake of
brevity only the former are shown. For P1, 700 hPa
heights are lower than average (negative anomalies)
over the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere,
over Southern Africa and over central Chile; and are
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174 167

higher than average (positive anomalies) over Southern
Australia and New Zealand (Fig. 1A). For P2, the
opposite occurs. Thus there are positive anomalies over
the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, over
Southern Africa and to the west of central Chile; there
are negative anomalies over Southern Australia and
New Zealand.
During the accumulation season of P1 (Fig. 1B),
negative anomalies extend west from south-west
Australia, over Southern Africa, in the higher latitudes
of the South Pacific Ocean, and over central Chile and
Argentina; and positive anomalies occur over the
Weddell Sea, Western Antarctica, to the east of New
Zealand and in other mid-latitudes of the South Pacific

Fig. 3. Time series plots of smoothed annual detrended 700 hPa height anomalies over the period from 1954–1994 at: (A) New Zealand, (B) South
Africa, (C) South-east Pacific, (D) South-west Australia and (E) Weddell Sea. Upper panels for regions A,B and C refer to ablation season; lower
panels to accumulation season.
168 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174

Ocean. Exactly opposite anomalies occur in the there are negative (positive) 700 hPa geopotential ano-
accumulation season of P2. malies. This pattern is also out-of-phase with the
SST anomaly patterns for the Southern Hemisphere 700 hPa geopotential anomalies over New Zealand.
during P1 are shown in Fig. 2A for the ablation season and For the South-west Australia grid point (Fig. 3D),
in Fig. 2B for the accumulation season. Note again, that during P1 (P2), there are negative (positive) 700 hPa
because of the way the data are processed, anomaly maps geopotential anomalies. This pattern occurs during the
for P2 are the mirror images of these, so need not be accumulation season and this too is out-of-phase with
shown. In the ablation season of P1, SSTs are cooler than 700 hPa geopotential anomalies over New Zealand, but
normal in vast bands of the subtropical and equatorial is similar to the Weddell Sea grid point (Fig. 3E). During
oceans. Near South America, SSTs are cooler than normal P1 (P2), there are negative (positive) 700 hPa geopo-
in the Pacific off the coast of Peru and in the Atlantic to the tential anomalies during the ablation season. Although
east of Argentina and Brazil. SSTs in the New Zealand there is considerable inter-annual variation in the
region exhibit a tendency to be warmer than normal 700 hPa heights over the sample grid points, the
(Fig. 2A). The pattern of these anomalies is reversed for P1. smoothed circulation anomalies are statistically different
In the accumulation season of P1, SSTs are cooler in the between P1 and P2 (at the 95% level of confidence and
mid-latitudes of the South Pacific Ocean, South Atlantic using 19 degrees of freedom) (Table 2).
and South Indian Ocean (Fig. 2B). There is a tendency for From Fig. 2A and B, the key regions for SSTs are:
SSTs in the New Zealand region to be warmer than
normal. Near South America, SSTs are cooler than normal (1) near New Zealand (168°E and 42.5°S)
off the coast of Peru and to the east of Buenos Aires. For (2) near South Africa (25°E and 35°S)
P1, the signs of these anomalies are reversed. (3) near Peru (283°E and 15°S)
From Fig. 1A and B, the following regions (and
representative sample grid points) appear to be key
centres of action for atmospheric circulation: Table 2
Mean of smoothed values of climatic indices for ablation and
(A) New Zealand region (177.5°E and 42.5°S) accumulation seasons for P1 and P2
(B) South African region (25°E and 35°S) Variable Season P1 P2 Test
(C) South-east Pacific region (120°W and 55°S) 700 hPa height anomaly Ablation 5.0 − 3.0 S
(D) South-west Australian region (115°E and 35°S, over New Zealand
accumulation season only) 700 hPa height anomaly Accumulation 3.0 0.0 NS
(E) Weddell Sea region (40°W and 65°S, ablation over New Zealand
700 hPa height anomaly Ablation −2.3 2.5 S
season only)
over Southern Africa
700 hPa height anomaly Accumulation −3.1 4.0 S
Fig. 3(A, B, C, D, E) presents time series plots of the over Southern Africa
annual and smoothed 700 hPa geopotential anomalies at 700 hPa height anomaly Ablation −7.1 8.8 S
these five sample grid points for the periods P1 and P2. over South Pacific
700 hPa height anomaly Accumulation −3.1 4.1 S
For the New Zealand grid point (Fig. 3A), there is a high
over South Pacific
degree of inter-annual variability in the 700 hPa height 700 hPa height anomaly Ablation −6.6 7.8 S
anomalies during the period. For the ablation season, over Weddell Sea
positive 700 hPa geopotential anomalies occur during 700 hPa height anomaly Accumulation −3.5 1.6 S
P1, and neutral or negative 700 hPa geopotential ano- over SW Australia
SST anomaly near New Zealand Ablation 0.14 − 0.12 S
malies occur during P2. For the accumulation season,
SST anomaly near New Zealand Accumulation 0.12 − 0.14 S
there is no coherent pattern in the 700 hPa geopotential SST anomaly near Ablation −0.49 0.48 S
anomalies between the periods. Over South Africa Southern Africa
(Fig. 3B) there are marked oscillations in the 700 hPa SST anomaly near Accumulation −0.45 0.50 S
geopotential anomalies in both seasons. During P1 (P2), Southern Africa
SST anomaly near Peru Ablation −0.74 0.75 S
there are negative (positive) 700 hPa geopotential
IPO Annual −0.62 1.22 S
anomalies over South Africa. This pattern is out-of- SOI Annual 1.7 − 3.1 S
phase with the 700 hPa geopotential anomalies over
Test refers to a Mann–Whitney two-tailed test statistic for the null
New Zealand, as identified in Fig. 1. hypothesis that there is no difference between glacier retreat and
For the South-east Pacific grid point (Fig. 3C), there advance phases. Note S = significant and NS = non-significant at the
is considerable inter-annual variability. During P1 (P2), 95% confidence level and 19 df.
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174 169

Fig. 4(A, B, C) presents time series plots of the
annual and smoothed SST anomalies at the three
representative grid points for P1 and P2. In the New
Zealand region (Fig. 4A), during P1, there is a tendency
for warm SST anomalies near New Zealand. During P2,
the tendency is more towards cool SST anomalies. There
is smaller inter-annual variability in the SST anomaly
patterns in the South Africa (Fig. 4B) and Peru regions
(Fig. 4C), but with an apparent shift from cooler values
in P1 towards strong warming trends in P2. In both
places, this trend is found in the accumulation and
ablation seasons and is out-of-phase with the SST trend
in the New Zealand region.
Fig. 5 presents time series plots of smoothed
anomalies for the SOI and IPO, which suggest a clear
shift in the two indexes between P1 and P2. During P1,
the SOI is positive, indicating the dominance of La
Niña. On the other hand, during the advance phase, the
SOI is negative, indicating the dominance of El Niño.
During P1, the IPO is negative and during P2 the IPO is
positive. The IPO switches phase about 1976/77, which
after taking the reaction time of glaciers into account,

Fig. 4. Time series plots of smoothed annual sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) over the period 1954–1994 at; (A) New Zealand, (B) South
Africa and (C) Peru. Upper panels for each region refer to ablation season; lower panels to accumulation season.
170 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
Fig. 5. Time series plots of smoothed annual anomalies for the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Inter-decadal Pacific
Oscillation (IPO) over the period 1954 to 1994.
approximately coincides with the change in their
response from P1 to P2.
Table 2 is a summary of the statistical tests
comparing P1 with P2. Data tested are for the smoothed
700 hPa anomalies for sample grid point locations for
atmospheric circulation using detrended data, SST, the
SOI and the IPO. Care should be taken in interpretation
of these results, because of the issues regarding the use
of the Mann–Whitney test and degrees of freedom for
smoothed data discussed at the end of Section 2.4. For
each centre of action, there is a statistically significant
difference in the geopotential height anomalies (at
the 95% level of confidence and with 19 degrees of
freedom) between P1 and P2, except for the 700 hPa
geopotential anomaly over New Zealand during the
accumulation season. For SSTs, there is a statistically
significant difference between P1 and P2 for the New
Zealand, Peru and South Africa regions. Table 2 also
shows that there is a statistically significant difference
for the IPO and SOI. The marked shifts in climate
regimes between P1 and P2 are summarised in Table 3.
Table 3
Summary of the shifts in climate regimes of the Southern Hemisphere between P1 and P2
P1
Negative phase of the IPO
Positive SOI (La Niña)
Positive 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over New
Zealand in ablation season
Negative 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over the South-east Pacific
Negative 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over Southern Africa
Negative 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over the
Weddell Sea in the ablation season
Negative 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over South-west
Australia during the accumulation season
Cool Southern Hemisphere SST anomalies in the South Indian
Ocean and equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean
Warm SST anomalies in the New Zealand region
4. Discussion
The estimation of statistical significance in Table 2 is
based on having 19 degrees of freedom, and assumes
that the annual data are independent of each other.
However, the data are smoothed and it could be argued
that the autocorrelation in the time series will therefore
reduce the effective degrees of freedom to around 5 or 6.
In this case, the results in Table 2 are generally not
significant at the 95% level. This issue is complicated
when considering glaciers, because they are natural
integrating systems that respond to the smoothed effects
of weather and climate over several years. The phy-
sically plausible relationships shown here may require
much longer smoothed time series to demonstrate strict
statistical significance.
Attention is drawn in this paper to the apparent out-
of-phase relationship between glacier behaviour in the
tropical Andes and the Southern Alps over the last half
of the 20th Century. This is shown to be related to a
rearrangement of large-scale circulation patterns that are
typical of extremes of the SOI. On inter-decadal time
scales, the negative (positive) phase of the IPO is
matched by a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño)
episodes. As shown in Fig. 5, the IPO shifted phase
about 1976/77, which coincides with a notable rear-
rangement of atmospheric circulation and SST patterns
around the Southern Hemisphere. This 1976/77 switch
in circulation regimes, also identified by Hurrell and van
Loon (1994), coincides with observed changes in glacier
behaviour in both the Andes and New Zealand, once
reaction times are taken into account. In the Southern
Alps, repeated El Niño events typical of P2, lowered
glacier snowlines, favoured return to positive mass
balance and led to glacier advances, whereas in the
tropical Andes, they created higher snowlines, negative
P2
Positive phase of the IPO
Negative SOI (El Niño)
Negative 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over New
Zealand in ablation season
Positive 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over the South-east Pacific
Positive 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over Southern Africa
Positive 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over the
Weddell Sea in the ablation season
Positive 700 hPa geopotential anomaly over South-west
Australia during the accumulation season.
Warm Southern Hemisphere SST anomalies in the South
Indian Ocean and equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean
Cool SST anomalies in the New Zealand region
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
mass balances and glacier shrinkage. Therefore, one
mechanism explaining the link between glacier
responses over the second half of the 20th Century
between the Andes and the Southern Alps is shifts in the
IPO.
Another important result is the appearance in the
anomaly patterns of an out-of-phase relationship be-
tween geopotential heights over the higher latitudes
(poleward of 60°S), and the mid-latitudes (in a latitude
belt between 40°S and 50°S) in the South-west Pacific
during the ablation season (Figure 1A, B). This at-
mospheric circulation pattern represents a typical AAO
signal, whereby during negative phases the circumpolar
westerlies move poleward and weaken in mid-latitudes.
During positive phases of the AAO, the westerlies
expand and strengthen. The results validate the hypoth-
esis of Tyson et al. (1997), who suggested that glacier
behaviour in the Southern Alps is linked to hemispheric
variability in the mid-latitude westerlies. A teleconnec-
tion with glacier behaviour in Patagonia is explained,
because that region also experienced a strengthening of
the westerlies after the circulation shift of 1976/77. In
both cases, stronger westerly gradients over the Pata-
gonian Andes and the Southern Alps during P2, have
increased orographic uplift and frontal activity. The
known trend in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data
towards a more positive AAO also needs to be taken
into account. Some of this was removed by detrending,
but if real could be influencing things as well. The maps
at 700 hPa height show a secondary anomaly pattern
across central Chile and sometimes Argentina. This is in
the vicinity of the normal position of the subtropical high
pressure zone, and indicates that variations in its strength
and position are also important for glacier behaviour in
the Andes. Associated weakening (strengthening) of the
easterly flow over the tropical Andes affects glaciers
there and is linked to their retreat (advance).
An important circulation feature in the accumulation
season is the Pacific-Southern American pattern (PSA).
This pertains to the teleconnection between the region
covering the South-east Pacific/Bellingshausen Sea and
the region to the south-east of New Zealand. Some
writers, such as Sinclair et al. (1997), Kiladis and Mo
(1998), Renwick and Revell (1999), Renwick (2002),
Yuan and Martinson (2000), Yuan and Martinson
(2001), argue that these regions are key centres of
action in the atmospheric circulation of the Southern
Hemisphere, in that they form a linking dipole. The
results show this dipole clearly and strongly suggest that
its behaviour exerts a powerful influence on glaciers of
the Southern Alps. During the glacier retreat phase of
P1, there is a stronger northerly component to airflow
171
over these mountains, and a weaker westerly compo-
nent. This is a consequence of blocking highs establish-
ing to the south-east of New Zealand during the
accumulation season, and breakdown in the westerlies,
while strong negative anomalies occur over the South-
east Pacific/Bellingshausen Sea region. The end product
is less orographic uplift, warmer temperatures and less
cloud, all of which favour negative mass balances of
glaciers. The opposite occurs during glacier advance,
when there is a stronger southerly and westerly airflow
over the Southern Alps. This is associated with the
formation of a blocking high over the South-east Pacific/
Bellingshausen Sea region, and the persistence of
negative geopotential anomalies to the south-east of
New Zealand. In these circumstances, orographic pre-
cipitation is enhanced, temperatures are cooler and there
is more frontal activity, all of which favour positive
mass balances.
It is well known that extremes in the SOI lead to
distinctive anomaly patterns in SSTs, especially in the
eastern equatorial Pacific. More frequent El Niño events
since the hemispheric circulation switch of 1976/77
have led to higher SSTs and contributed to accelerated
retreat in the tropical Andes. This result is consistent
with Francou et al. (2003), who note that the best
predictor for glacier Chacaltaya in Bolivia is SSTs off
the coast of Peru. They note that during El Niños,
precipitation is less abundant and dry periods occur
more frequently during summer, albedo is reduced and
these lead to negative glacier mass balances. The results
show that more frequent El Niño events associated with
the switch have also led to cooler SST anomalies in the
New Zealand region. These have favoured a shift to
glacier advance, partly because air temperatures have
decreased leading to less glacier melt.
Glacier responses in the Southern Alps and the Andes
have teleconnections to shifts in climate phenomena in
other regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Tyson et al.
(1997) showed that advance of glaciers in the Southern
Alps and extended periods of drought in South Africa
coincide. Results of this paper show that this behaviour
can be explained by a hemispherically linked out-of-
phase atmospheric circulation pattern. During drought
(wet) years in Southern Africa, positive (negative)
anomalies develop there at 700 hPa, while the contem-
poraneous advance (retreat) of New Zealand glaciers are
associated with negative (positive) anomalies. Another
centre of action in hemispheric atmospheric circulation
patterns occurs over south-west Australia, where shifts in
circulation have had important impacts on winter and
spring rainfall. For example, this region experienced
wetter winters in P1, but drier winters in P2. Thus
172 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
hemispheric changes in circulation patterns that have
influenced glaciers of the Southern Alps and the Andes
have also affected rainfall patterns in Southern Africa
and parts of Australia.
Several ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula have
disintegrated in recent decades (Vaughan and Doake,
1996). This behaviour is attributed to regional warming
and the southerly migration of the January 0 °C isotherm.
As can be seen in Fig. 1(A, B), the Weddell Sea region
has been dominated by a marked positive 700 hPa height
anomaly since 1975, which has resulted in anomalous
northerly airflows over the Antarctic Peninsula. These
have been reported by King and Harangozo (1998), but it
also seems that the same hemispheric rearrangements of
atmospheric circulation that caused glaciers of the
Southern Alps to advance and those of the tropical
Andes to retreat may also have caused warming and ice
shelf collapse in the Antarctic Peninsula.
5. Conclusions
Over the second half of the 20th Century, many
glaciers of the Andes and the Southern Alps of New
Zealand have undergone dramatic changes on inter-
decadal timescales. From the mid-1950s to the early
1980s, there was rapid and wholesale retreat in the
Southern Alps. Subsequently, many of the steeper valley
and mountain glaciers with shorter response times have
demonstrated marked advances. Meanwhile, glaciers in
the tropical Andes have reacted in opposite fashion:
changing from glacier advance to glacier retreat about
the early 1980s. The situation in the southern Andes is
less clear, but there is some evidence to indicate that
behaviour of some western glaciers emanating from the
Patagonian Ice Field is in broad phase agreement with
those of the Southern Alps. After reaction times of
glaciers are taken into account, it is apparent that this
switch in glacier behaviour must be driven by at-
mospheric and SST changes that occurred about the
mid-1970s. Two successive 20-yr periods of P1 (April
1954–March 1974) and P2 (April 1974–March 1994)
are analysed to identify corresponding changes in at-
mospheric circulation and ocean patterns around the
Southern Hemisphere, as represented by 700 hPa height
anomalies, SST anomalies and climate indices such as
the SOI, IPO and AAO.
Results show that marked shifts in the Inter-decadal
Pacific Oscillation and the behaviour of the Southern
Oscillation are a feature of these periods. There are also
changes in strength of the westerly flow over the
southern Andes and Southern Alps that are related to the
AAO, and pronounced changes in patterns of SSTs in
the equatorial oceans, especially off Peru. P1 is
associated with the negative phase of the IPO, a higher
frequency of La Niña episodes, weaker westerlies over
the Southern Alps and southern Andes, but decreased
easterlies over the tropical Andes. There are cool SST
anomalies in the South Indian Ocean and the equatorial
eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean, and warm SST
anomalies in the New Zealand region. P2 is associated
with the positive phase of the IPO, a higher frequency of
El Niño episodes, a more positive AAO, stronger
westerlies over the Southern Alps and southern Andes,
but increased easterlies over the tropical Andes. There
are warm SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean and
the equatorial eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean, and
cool SST anomalies in the New Zealand region.
Together these switches between P1 and P2 impact on
processes controlling glacier mass balance. In the tropical
Andes, the change in climate regime towards more El
Niños has reduced precipitation so that dry periods occur
more frequently during summer and albedo is decreased
so leading to negative glacier mass balances. In the
Southern Alps, there have been stronger westerlies over
the mountains, which has increased frontal activity and
orographic precipitation and lowered temperatures.
Consequently mass balances have become positive.
Results also show seasonal differences. During the
ablation season, P1 is linked to positive 700 hPa height
anomalies over New Zealand and with negative 700 hPa
height anomalies over the South-east Pacific, Southern
Africa and the Weddell Sea. On the other hand, P2 has
negative 700 hPa height anomalies over New Zealand
and positive 700 hPa height anomalies over the South-
east Pacific, Southern Africa and the Weddell Sea.
During the accumulation season, P1 has blocking highs
to the south-east of New Zealand, while negative 700 hPa
height anomalies occur over Southern Africa and South-
west Australia. For P2 blocking highs shift to the South-
east Pacific, while positive 700 hPa height anomalies
occur over Southern Africa and South-west Australia.
These details demonstrate marked shifts in hemi-
spheric-scale atmospheric circulation patterns about the
mid-1970s. As a consequence, switches in glacier be-
haviour in the Andes and Southern Alps can be linked to
shifts in climate elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere.
Over the last half of the 20th Century, glacier advance in
the tropical Andes and glacier retreat in New Zealand
are associated with more summer rainfall over Southern
Africa and more winter rainfall over South-west Aus-
tralia. Glacier retreat in the tropical Andes and glacier
advance in New Zealand are associated with less
summer rainfall over Southern Africa and less winter
rainfall over South-west Australia.
 B.B. Fitzharris et al. / Global and Planetary Change 59 (2007) 159–174
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Trevor Chinn of NIWA, Dunedin,
for assistance and access to the New Zealand glacier
records. We are also grateful to Dr. Jim Salinger of
NIWA, Auckland, for supplying the Inter-decadal
Pacific Oscillation and the UK Meteorological Office
Historical Sea Surface Temperature data. The comments
of two anonymous reviewers proved extremely helpful
in improving the clarity of the paper.
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