Annual Energy Outlook 2022

with projections to 2050 Chart library

March 3, 2022
#AEO2022 www.eia.gov/aeo
 Annual Energy Outlook 2022
with projections to 2050

March 2022

Office of Energy Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585

This publication is online at

www.eia.gov/aeo

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the
U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or
employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of
the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 2
Table of contents Slide number
Overview of U.S. energy markets 4
Critical drivers 10
Petroleum and other liquids 17
Natural gas 35
Electricity generation 47
Transportation 74
Buildings 88
Industrial 105
Emissions 116
References 124
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 3
Overview of U.S. energy markets
Energy production and consumption
Energy production by source Energy consumption by fuel
AEO2022 Reference case AEO2022 Reference case
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
2021 2021
50 history projections dry natural 50
history projections
gas petroleum
and other
40 40 liquids
crude oil and
lease natural gas
30 condensate 30
other coal
renewable other
20 energy 20 renewable
coal energy
natural gas
10 10 nuclear
plant liquids
nuclear hydro
hydro liquid
0 0 biofuels
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Biofuels are shown separately and included in petroleum and other liquids.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 5
Energy intensity and consumption
Indexed total energy intensity of the U.S. economy Energy consumption by sector
AEO2022 Reference case AEO2022 Reference case
2021 = 1.0 quadrillion British thermal units
2021 2021
2.0 50
history projections history projections

electric power
1.5 40

30 transportation
industrial
1.0
20

0.5
10
residential
commercial
0.0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Total energy intensity calculation reflects primary energy, which includes electricity losses.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 6
Petroleum consumption by sector and fuel type
Petroleum and other liquids consumption by sector Petroleum and other liquids consumption by fuel type
AEO2022 Reference case AEO2022 Reference case
quadrillion British thermal units million barrels per day
2021 2021
30 projections 10
projections
transportation motor gasoline
25
8

20
6
15 hydrocarbon
gas liquids
industrial 4 distillate fuel oil
10
jet fuel
2 other
5
commercial
residential residual fuel oil
0 electric power 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 7
Energy imports and exports
Gross energy trade Net energy imports
AEO2022 Reference case AEO2022 Reference case
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
2021 2021
40 30
history projections history projections

exports
30 20

imports
20 10 petroleum
net imports and other
liquids
10 0 electricity
coal and
net exports coke
natural gas
0 -10
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 8
Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector and fuel source
Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector AEO2022 Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel source
Reference case AEO2022 Reference case
billion metric tons billion metric tons
2021 2021
3.0 3.0
history projections history projections

petroleum

2.0 2.0
transportation

industrial natural gas

1.0 1.0
electric power
coal
residential
commercial
0.0 0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Series does not include greenhouse gases other than CO2. Industrial sector CO2 emissions do not include process emissions, such as
the emissions from cement clinker production.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 9
Critical drivers
Crude oil price projections and natural gas price projections
North Sea Brent crude oil price Natural gas price at Henry Hub
AEO2022 side cases AEO2022 side cases
2021 dollars per barrel 2021 dollars per million British thermal units
2021 2021
$200 $8
history projections history projections Low Oil and Gas
High Oil Price $7 Supply
$150 $6
Low Oil and Gas $5
Supply High Oil Price
$100 Reference $4 Reference
High Oil and Gas Low Oil Price
$3 High Oil and Gas
Supply
$50 Supply
Low Oil Price $2

$1
$0 $0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 11
GDP and population growth assumptions
U.S. gross domestic product assumptions U.S. population assumptions
AEO2022 economic growth cases AEO2022 economic growth cases
trillion 2012 dollars millions
2021 2021
$50 500
history projections history projections

$40 400

$30 300

$20 High Economic Growth 200 High Economic Growth

Reference Reference
$10 Low Economic Growth 100 Low Economic Growth

$0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 12
Installation cost for solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and natural
gas capacity in renewable cost cases
Overnight installation cost, AEO2022 renewables cost cases
Reference case Low Renewables Cost case High Renewables Cost case
2021 dollars per kilowatt 2021 dollars per kilowatt 2021 dollars per kilowatt
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500

wind
$1,200 $1,200 natural gas $1,200
solar PV
natural gas wind
$900 $900 $900
solar PV wind natural gas
$600 $600 $600
solar PV
$300 $300 $300

$0 $0 $0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Note: Series begin in 2022.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 13
Delivered energy
Delivered energy across end-use sectors Indexed delivered energy across end-use sectors
AEO2022 economic growth cases AEO2022 economic growth cases
quadrillion British thermal units 2021 = 1.0
2021 2021
100 1.4
history projections history projections
1.2
80
1.0
60
0.8

40 0.6

0.4
High Economic Growth High Economic Growth
20
Reference 0.2 Reference
Low Economic Growth Low Economic Growth
0 0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 14
Delivered energy by end-use sector
Indexed delivered energy by end-use sector
AEO2022 Reference case
2021 = 1.0
2021
1.4
history projections
industrial
1.2 commercial
residential
1.0 transportation

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 15
Delivered energy intensity by sector
Indexed delivered energy intensity by sector
AEO2022 Reference case
Residential delivered Commercial delivered Industrial delivered Transportation on-road Transportation passenger
energy intensity index energy intensity index energy intensity index energy intensity index energy intensity index
per household by square foot of floorspace by 2012 dollar of output by vehicle-mile by passenger-mile
2021 = 1.0 2021 = 1.0 2021 = 1.0 2021 = 1.0 2021 = 1.0
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050
Note: Energy intensity at the end-use sector level is typically measured as energy use relative to an indicator that most directly affects delivered
energy consumption within the sector (for example, energy use per household is a key energy intensity indicator for the residential sector).

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) www.eia.gov/aeo 16