Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

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Environmental Pollution
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envpol

On-road vehicle emission inventory and its spatio-temporal variations

in North China Plain*
Peiyu Jiang a, Xi Zhong b, Lingyu Li a, *
a
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266071, China
b
Aquatic Technology Promotion Station of Weihai City, Wendeng District, Weihai, 264400, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Vehicle emissions are a major contributor to air pollution in China. In this study, a high-resolution in-
Received 1 June 2020 ventory of eight on-road vehicle-emitted pollutants in 53 cities within the North China Plain (NCP) was
Received in revised form established for 152 sub-sources. Monthly emission factors were then simulated using the COPERT v5
25 August 2020
model and their spatial distribution at 4 km
4 km resolution was allocated based on the transportation
Accepted 9 September 2020
Available online 11 September 2020
network. In 2017, emissions of BC, CO, NH3, NMVOCs, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 were 38.3, 2900, 21.8,
578, 2460, 113, 85.9, and 4.7 kt, respectively. These emissions and their sources differed between cities,
mainly due to different vehicle populations, fleet compositions, emission share rates of different vehicle
Keywords:
North China
types, and emission standards in each city. Small-medium petrol passenger cars and both 20e26 t and 40
Vehicular emissions e50 t heavy-duty diesel trucks of China 3 and 4 emissions standards were the main contributors for all
Mobile source pollutants. Higher cold-start emission factors caused higher emissions of CO, NMVOCs, NOx, and PM2.5 in
Air pollutants winter. The cities of Beijing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Tangshan, Xuzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Jining, and Zibo had
COPERT the highest emission intensities. Overall, emissions decreased from the city centers toward surrounding
areas. The higher contributions of heavy-duty trucks meant that higher emissions appeared along
highways in a vein-like distribution. These results provide a theoretical basis for the effective prevention
and control of air pollution in the NCP.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Vehicle emission inventories are usually estimated using

The on-road vehicle population in China has shown rapid
exponential growth since the 21st century, leading to vehicle
emissions becoming an important contributor to air pollution
(Liang et al., 2019). The North China Plain (NCP), the second-largest
plain in China, covers ~20% of the country (Fig. 1). It contains many
urban agglomerations with dense populations, including some
megacities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang. It is also one
of the most polluted areas in China (Ge et al., 2018; Hao et al., 2020;
Zhao et al., 2020), especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region
(Zhou et al., 2015; Yang et al., 2018). For example, vehicle emissions
could contribute up to 25% of ambient PM2.5 in BTH (Gao et al.,
2018). It is therefore essential to clarify the characteristics of on-
road vehicle emissions in order to more effectively control air
pollution in the NCP.
*
This paper has been recommended for acceptance by Pavlos Kassomenos.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: lilingyu@qdu.edu.cn (L. Li).
models such as MOBILE6 (US EPA, 2003), EMFAC 2002 (US CARB,
2002), IVE (International Vehicle Emission) (ISSRC, 2014), and
MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulators) (Koupal et al., 2002),
and COPERT (Computer Programme to Estimate Emissions from
Road Transport) (Ntziachristos and Samaras, 2000), of which the
latter is most commonly used. For example, Mensink (2000) veri-
fied Antwerp’s urban emission inventory by comparing the emis-
sion factors simulated by COPERT v2 with the emulated traffic flow
and observations. COPERT v3 and v4 have been commonly used to
calculate road transportation emissions and determine accurate
emission factors (Buro
n et al., 2004; Berkowicz et al., 2006;
Choudhary and Gokhale, 2019). In China, vehicle emission in-
ventories have been established based on emission factors simu-
lated by models and activity data collected from field investigation
and statistical analyses. Emission factors simulated by COPERT
were more similar to actual emissions of on-road vehicles in China
than those from other models due to the analogous engine tech-
nology and overlap vehicle emission standards (Xie et al., 2006). Cai
and Xie (2010) calculated the emission factors of different vehicle

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115639
0269-7491/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

Fig. 1. Location of North China Plain.

types under varied national standards using COPERT and estab- for on-road vehicles in the NCP were thus identified, which could
lished a vehicle emission factor database for China. The model has be helpful for improved air pollution control in this region.
also been used to establish national and regional single- and multi-
year vehicle emission inventories (Cai and Xie, 2007; Lang et al.,
2014; Liu et al., 2015; Xie et al., 2017; He et al., 2018; Li et al.,
2. Methodology
2018; Zhou et al., 2019; Jiang et al., 2020). In the NCP, research
has focused on specific cities or regions. For example, Jing et al.
2.1. COPERT v5 model
(2016) used COPERT with near-real-time traffic data along road
segments to develop a vehicle emissions inventory with high
The COPERT model originated from a research program on
spatiotemporal resolution for the Beijing urban area. Sun et al.
vehicle emission factors carried out by the European Commission,
(2017, 2019) used COPERT to establish historical and future
and is being continuously developed and improved. It is widely
vehicle emission inventories in Qingdao and Tianjin. Lang et al.
used in European countries and is compatible with varied national
(2012) established an on-road vehicle emission inventory in BTH
standards and parameters (Ntziachristos and Samaras, 2000). The
in 2014. Sun et al. (2016) combined COPERT v4 with the vehicle age
working conditions and engine technology used in COPERT are
distribution to develop a 0.05 
0.05  gridded vehicle emission
similar to those in China. As European emission standards can
inventory at the prefecture level in Shandong Province from 2000
include recent national standards for on-road vehicles in China,
to 2014.
many studies have applied COPERT to estimate Chinese vehicle
Overall, there has been a lack of comprehensive vehicle emis-
emissions. In addition, COPERT can calculate the pollutant emis-
sion inventories in the NCP that makes it difficult to develop a
sions of a single vehicle or fleet within a year, and can be used to
systematic and detailed understanding of the emission character-
develop a high-spatiotemporal-resolution vehicle emission data-
istics of vehicles in this region. The narrow focus of most studies
base (Zachariadis and Samaras, 1995; Xie et al., 2017).
means that many parts of the NCP have not been researched in
COPERT v5 is an updated version of COPERT v4 that includes
terms of vehicle emission inventories. In addition, previous studies
revised methodological elements and a reworked user interface,
have mostly discussed only CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5 emissions and
aiming at a compilation of complicated annual national inventories
have not been updated for emissions after 2014. Meanwhile, most
that includes multiple countries and years in a single file (European
studies have applied COPERT v3 or v4, which have less detailed and
Environment Agency, 2016). Compared with v4, COPERT v5 has the
comprehensive vehicle-type classifications. In contrast, COPERT v5
following new features: (1) fuel energy calculations are used
has a revised methodology that is more suited for handling actual
instead of fuel mass, primary and end (blends) fuels are distinct,
on-road vehicle conditions, making the simulated data more ac-
and energy is automatically considered in the balance; (2) the
curate and identification more effective, as discussed in Section 2.1
vehicle category classification has been updated by adding new
of this paper (Dey et al., 2019). Therefore, this study applied the
vehicle types and updating emission control technology level,
COPERT v5 model to estimate the emission factors of 8 air pollut-
which is more detailed and suitable for actual vehicle types and
ants (BC, CO, NH3, NMVOCs, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2) from 152
driving conditions; (3) one function type for emission factor
sub-sources of 18 vehicle types within the NCP. Monthly emissions
calculation has been added, which also has the potential to
in 2017 were calculated at the city level with a high spatial reso-
distinguish emission factors between peak and off-peak urban
lution. The main sources and areas with high emission intensities
traffic.
2
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li
2.2. Emissions estimation
2.2.1. Calculations
The algorithms used in COEPRT v5 to calculate vehicle emissions
in this study are as follows (Eq. 1e5):
EHOT; i; k; r ¼ Nk
Mk;r
eHOT; i; k; r (1)
ECOLD; i; k ¼ bi; k
Nk
Mk
eHOT; i; k

national emission standard was implemented were assumed to

ðeCOLD; i; k eHOT; i; k  1Þ (2)
X
EHOT ¼ EHOT; i; k; r (3)
X of newly registered vehicles were derived from the statistics in the
ECOLD ¼ ECOLD; i; k (4)
ETOTAL ¼ EHOT þ ECOLD (5)
where E is the pollutant emissions (g); N is vehicle populations
(veh); M is the mileage per vehicle (km/veh); e is the emission
factor (g/km); b is the fraction of mileage driven with a cold engine
or the catalyst operated below the light-off temperature; i is the
pollutant type; k is the vehicle technology in operation in the
period concerned; r is the road type; HOT represents hot exhaust;
and COLD represents cold start.
2.2.2. Emission factors
COPERT v5 was applied to calculate the emission factors related
to fuel properties, circulation data including vehicle share and
speed, fuel evaporation data, and driving conditions including load
and road slope. The calculation of cold-start emission factors was
affected by meteorological parameters including minimum tem-
perature, maximum temperature, humidity, and Reid Vapor Pres-
sure (RVP), which varied monthly. These parameters were
determined as follows.
(1) Fuel properties. The sulfur content of various fuels was
determined by weight as 10 ppm for petrol, 10 ppm for
diesel, 50 ppm for LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), 150 ppm for
CNG (compressed natural gas), 50 ppm for biodiesel, and
10 ppm for bioethanol, according to the latest Chinese na-
tional standards (including GB 17930-2016, GB 19147-2016,
GB 19159-2012, GB 18047-2017, GB/T 20828-2015, GB 25199-
2015, and GB 18351-2017). The RVP of fuel was 88 kPa in
January, February, March, April, November, and December,
and 72 kPa from May to October (Cai and Xie, 2010). Fuel
consumption of on-road vehicles was obtained from national
statistics for each city in 2017. Before being input into
COPERT v5, these were converted from tons to terajoules (TJ)
by the conversion coefficient (c) for different fuels in v4
(Table S1).
(2) Circulation data. The varied vehicle shares (%) on four types
of roads (urban roads with and without peak traffic, rural
roads, and highways) were determined following Sun et al.
(2017) (Table S2). The driving speeds (km/h) of vehicles on
urban roads without peak traffic, rural roads, and highways
were 20, 40, and 80 km/h, respectively (Cai and Xie, 2010).
The minimum driving speed of 5e12 km/h given by COPERT
v5 was used for urban roads with peak traffic.
(3) Meteorological parameters. Data for monthly minimum and
maximum temperature along with humidity in 53 cities
were obtained through the National Meteorological Science
Data Center (http://data.cma.cn).
3
Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639
Vehicles were divided into 18 types and 6 national emission
standards including 152 sub-sources. The calculated emission fac-
tors in the NCP in 2017 are given in Table S3. The emission factors of
each vehicle type decreased from the emission standards from
China 0 to those of China 5.
2.2.3. Vehicle populations
All newly registered vehicles in the year when the new Chinese
comply with that standard. For emission standards of China 1e5,
the vehicle populations of each standard were calculated by sum-
marizing populations of the newly registered vehicles during the
implementation period for that standard. The annual populations
official statistical yearbooks of 53 cities during 1998e2017.
Considering that the official statistics on vehicle population of
China 0 were not comprehensive and most were absent, it was
calculated by Eq. 6:
X5
Np; i; 0 ¼ Np; i  j¼1
Np; i; j (6)
where Np,i,0, Np,i, and Np,i,j mean the vehicle population of China 0,
total vehicle population, and vehicle population of China j (j ¼ 1 to
5), respectively, for vehicle type i in province p. The China 0, 1, 2, 3,
4, and 5 emission standards correspond to the pre-Euro, Euro I, II,
III, IV, and V standards. The implementation period for various
national emission standards, the average annual mileage of
different types (VKT), and the lifetime mileage of on-road vehicles
all referred to the Technical Guideline for Establishment of Air
Pollutant Emission Inventory of On-road Vehicles in China (Trial).
Notably, Beijing took the lead in the application of China 0e5, while
the city of Tianjin and the provinces of Hebei, Shandong, and
Jiangsu adopted the China 5 standard ahead of other areas.
2.2.4. Mileage degradation parameter
The mileage degradation parameters were calculated by Eq. 7:
MCc ¼ AM
MMEAN þ BM (7)
where MCc is the mileage correction factor for a given mileage
(Mav ); MMEAN is the mean fleet mileage of vehicles for which the
correction is applied; AM is the degradation of the emission per-
formance per kilometer; and BM is the emission level of a fleet of
new vehicles. AM and BM were input by default in COPERT v5, while
MMEAN was determined according to the description given by the
European Environment Agency (2016).
2.3. Spatial allocation
In order to investigate the spatial characteristics of vehicle
emissions in the NCP, gridded emissions at a 4 km
4 km resolu-
tion were allocated by transportation network from the calculated
city-level vehicle emission inventory using ArcGIS and MapInfo.
The road distribution originated from OpenStreetMap (https://
www.openstreetmap.org). The spatial allocation of emissions was
determined by Eq. 8:
.
Egrid ¼ Etotal
Lgrid Ltotal (8)
where Egrid is the emissions in grid j; Etotal is the total emissions of
the city where grid j is located; Lgrid is the road length in grid j; and
Ltotal is the total road length of the city where grid j is located.
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li
2.4. Uncertainty analysis
Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the uncertainty of
estimated emissions for the studied pollutants (Streets et al.,
2003a; Zhao et al., 2011, 2012). The uncertainties of emission fac-
tors and activity levels (including vehicle population and mileage)
were determined by referring to the uncertainty assessment
manual published by the United States Environmental Protection
Agency (US EPA, 2007) and various studies (Streets et al., 2003a,
2003b; Zheng et al., 2009). The optimal probability density func-
tions were estimated for all collected data using statistical methods,
in which the relative standard deviations were taken as the un-
certainties. The mileage for each vehicle type was assumed to
conform to lognormal distribution. The emissions uncertainty was
estimated under the 95% confidence interval by extracting 10,000
samples from the distributions of emission factors, vehicle popu-
lation, and mileage. The key factors contributing most to the un-
certainty of the estimated emissions were also determined by
sensitivity analysis.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Emissions in 53 cities of the NCP
On-road vehicle emissions for all eight pollutants in the 53 cities
as calculated by COPERT are given in Table S4. BC totaled 38.3 kt, CO
2900 kt, NH3 21.8 kt, NMVOCs 578 kt, NOx 2460 kt, PM10 113 kt,
PM2.5 85.9 kt, and SO2 4.7 kt. Xuzhou had the largest BC and NOx
emissions, Beijing had the largest CO, NH3, NMVOCs, and SO2
emissions, and Zhengzhou had the largest PM10 and PM2.5
emissions.
Differences in emissions between cities were attributed to
different activity data (including vehicle population and fleet
composition) and different emission factors (influenced by fuel
consumption and meteorological parameters). Vehicle population
and fleet composition could also determine fuel consumption and
therefore emission factors. Meteorological parameters had rela-
tively small variations between cities due to the relatively short
distance from north to south within the NCP. Therefore, the
dominant factors causing emission differences between cities were
vehicle population and fleet composition.
The emission compositions by vehicle type, vehicle population,
and fleet composition in each city are given in Fig. 2. The emission
contribution of each city was the average of contributions for all
studied air pollutants. The vehicle population differed greatly be-
tween the 53 cities, being as high as 5.46 and 3.50 million in Beijing
and Zhengzhou but only 0.24 million in Hebi. Cities with a larger
vehicle population usually had higher emissions, but some cities
with lower vehicle populations could still have high emissions,
likely due to different vehicle fleet compositions, including pas-
senger cars (PCs), light commercial vehicles (LCVs), heavy duty
trucks (HDTs), buses (BUS), and mopeds and motorcycles (MCs). For
example, the proportion of PCs to all vehicles in Langfang and
Tianjin was >90% but only 24.2% in Hengshui. LCVs and HDTs in
Shijiazhuang represented 12.6% and 15.5%, respectively, much
higher than in other cities (~4% and ~5%). BUS represented 7.3% in
Xuzhou and ＜2% in other cities. MCs in Cangzhou, Xingtai, and
Hengshui represented 41.9%, 52.9%, and 72.3%, respectively, but
were lower <5% in Dezhou, Qingdao, Langfang, Xinyang, and
Tianjin.
Different vehicle fleet compositions led to emission variations
between cities due to different emission levels for each vehicle
type. Cities with larger proportions and populations of high-
emission vehicles usually had higher overall emissions. For
example, Xuzhou had the most BC and NOx emissions although its
4
Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639
vehicle population was only 1.27 million, much lower than Beijing,
which had the most vehicles. Xuzhou had a higher proportion of
HDTs and BUS (9.5% and 7.3%, respectively). Xuzhou City is located
at the junction of four provinces and is a comprehensive trans-
portation hub in China with busy transportation industry. Its higher
and increasing freight traffic leads the highest proportion of HDTs
among all the cities in NCP except Shijiazhuang City. The pop-
ulations of 20e26 t and 40e50 t diesel HDTs at the China 3 standard
were nearly 10.5 times larger than those in Beijing, resulting in
675 t BC and 37800 t NOx emissions higher. The larger population of
BUS (9.5 times as many) with capacity of 18 t in Xuzhou also
contributed to its BC and NOx emissions being higher than Beijing
by 850 t and 52200 t, respectively. In addition, the higher emission
factors of these three vehicle types also contributed to higher total
emissions of BC and NOx in Xuzhou (Table S3). For example, NOx
emission factors for these were 9e13 g/km, significantly higher
than those of other vehicle types (0e2 g/km). In Beijing, PCs
accounted for nearly 90% of the total, and these had relatively lower
BC and NOx emission factors. Therefore, Xuzhou emitted higher BC
and NOx despite its total vehicle population being much lower than
some other cities. The proportion of HDTs in Shijiazhuang City was
15.5%, the highest in NCP, but it had lower emissions due to the less
vehicle populations. Another capital city, Zhengzhou City in Henan
Province is also an important transportation hub in China, but its
proportion of HDTs was 4.4%. Its larger vehicle populations made it
the second largest contributor to BC and NOx emissions. A higher
proportion of low-emission vehicles, such as MCs, might lead to
lower pollutant emissions. These were the primary vehicle types in
Hengshui and Xingtai, resulting in lower emission contributions.
Based on these results, reducing vehicle populations and
implementing stricter emission standards might be effective for
mitigating air pollutant emissions. The vehicle population can be
reduced by speeding up the elimination of vehicles with lower
emission standards. Combined with the development of cleaner tail
gas emission devices, stricter standards for high emission vehicles
can effectively reduce the vehicle emissions of air pollutants.
Changing vehicle fleet composition could be another choice for
reducing vehicle emissions, by encouraging the use of vehicles with
low emission levels and reducing the population of high-emission
vehicles.
3.2. Source composition
The vehicle emissions and emission share rate by vehicle type in
the 53 cities for the studied pollutants are given in Fig. S1. Overall,
HDTs had the largest contribution to BC, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5
emissions. PCs contributed the most to emissions of CO, NH3, and
NMVOCs. PCs and HDTs were the two dominant contributors to SO2
emissions. However, the source compositions by vehicle type
differed between cities and pollutants. For BC emissions, BUS were
the predominant source in Beijing (35.4%) and Xuzhou (48.8%). For
CO emissions, emissions from MCs in Huaibei, Huainan, Bozhou,
Xinyang, Fuyang, Hengshui, Xingtai, and Cangzhou were higher
than other vehicle types, while HDTs accounted for 41.3% in Shi-
jiazhuang and were the largest contributor there. PCs produced the
largest proportion of NH3 emissions in all cities (72.6e95.6%). MCs
produced 59.7% of NMVOCs in Hengshui, the most prominent
source there. BUS produced 54.1% and 49.2% of NOx in Beijing and
Xuzhou, respectively. In Beijing, PC emissions contributed the most
to PM10 (48.0%) and PM2.5 (40.2%). The contributions of PCs and
HDTs to SO2 emissions in most cities were ~40%, but were higher in
Langfang (68.5%) and Beijing (77.8%). In Huaibei, Bengbu, Lia-
nyungang, Bozhou, Shijiazhuang, and Jining, > 50% of SO2 emissions
came from HDTs, especially in Shijiazhuang (66.4%). Overall, PCs
and HDTs were the major contributors of air pollutants from vehicle
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

Fig. 2. Emission contribution, vehicle population, and composition in 53 cities.

emissions. In the NCP, the population of PCs (71.4%) was signifi-
cantly higher than that of HDTs (4.0%). However, higher emission
factors and higher mileage made HDTs a main contributor to air
pollutant emissions.
Vehicles under different national emission standards have var-
ied contributions to pollutant emissions and different emission
compositions by vehicle type (Fig. 3). For the overall NCP, the China
2 standard contributed the most to NH3 emissions, while China 3
contributed the most to BC, CO, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 and vehicles
under China 4 had the highest emissions of NMVOCs and SO2. In
addition, vehicles under China 0 had BC, NH3, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and
SO2 emissions near zero, but had significant contributions to CO
and NMVOC emissions, mostly generated by MCs. According to the
Chinese On-road Vehicle Environmental Management Report
(2018), for 2017, the population of Chinese vehicles under China 4
accounted for 47.5% of the total. Despite the stricter emission
standards of China 4 (compared to China 0e3), the higher vehicle
population led to higher pollutant emissions. From 2008 to 2013,
when China 3 was in force, the number of vehicles in China grew
rapidly, resulting in a high total population of vehicles contributing
to China 3 emissions. In addition, almost all of the existing MCs fell
under China 3. These factors made vehicles under China 3 and 4
have the largest emission contributions for all pollutants.
Due to the higher emission levels under China 3 than 4, the
overall pollutant emissions from China 3 were mostly higher than
those in China 4. Different vehicle types showed various

Fig. 3. Emissions by each emission standard and compositions of vehicle types. (Unit: BC, 103 t; CO, 2
104 t; NH3, 2
102 t; NMVOCs, 5
103 t; NOx, 2
104 t; PM10, 103 t; PM2.5,
103 t; and SO2, 5
10 t).

5
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li
characteristics in air pollutant emissions under these standards.
HDTs contributed the most to BC emissions under China 3 and 4
and to NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 under China 3, while PCs were the top
contributor to PM10 and PM2.5 emissions under China 4. For all
standards, the main contributors to NH3 emissions were PCs, which
also had most emissions of CO and NMVOCs for China 1e5. For SO2
emissions, HDT and PC emissions dominated under China 3 and 4,
respectively. The highest contributions of emissions from PCs and
HDTs could mainly be attributed to the large population of PCs, high
emission factors, and high HDT mileage.
The emission contributions by the 152 vehicle sub-sources were
investigated in detail and the top ten contributors for all pollutants
were identified (Fig. S2). HDTs were the main contributor to BC
emissions, especially 40e50 t trucks, under China 1, 2, 3, and 5. Of
the 10 sources, all vehicles fueled by diesel and five vehicle types
were under China 3. HDTs of 40e50 t under China 3 had the highest
BC emissions (7.6 kt). PCs were the dominant type for CO emissions.
Motorcycles under China 0 emitted the highest amount of CO
(259 kt). The top ten sources of NH3 emissions were all petrol PCs,
mainly those of small and medium sizes. The highest emissions
(>5 kt) were produced by small petrol PCs under China 2; these
vehicles were the dominant source of NMVOCs under any standard,
of which China 4 had the highest emissions (107 kt), while emis-
sions from other sources were <5 kt. In addition, petrol motorcycles
and diesel HDTs were the other main source of NMVOCs. Similar to
BC, diesel HDTs and BUS were the main emitters of NOx, especially
40e50 t and 20e26 t HDTs under China 3.
PM10 and PM2.5 had similar source distributions, with 40e50 t
and 20e26 t HDTs under China 3 being the top two emission
contributors with more than 13 and 11 kt, respectively. SO2 emis-
sions were clearly lower than other pollutants; the highest emis-
sions (0.5 kt) were generated by small petrol PCs under China 4. PCs
and HDTs were the main emission sources and HDTs most were
fueled by diesel. Overall, small and medium PCs, 40e50 t and
20e26 t HDTs, BUS-coaches, and motorcycles were usually among
the top ten sources contributing to emissions of all pollutants. High
vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated under the national
emission standards of China 3 and 4. Diesel vehicles were capable
of producing large amounts of air pollutants. Therefore, it would be
helpful to better control emissions from small and medium petrol
PCs as well as 20e26 t and 40e50 t diesel HDTs under China 3 and
4.
3.3. Temporal variations
Vehicle emissions in the NCP varied widely on a monthly scale
and were higher in winter than in summer; monthly emissions of
CO, NOx, NMVOCs, and PM2.5 are shown in Table S5. The highest
emissions all occurred in January, while July had the lowest emis-
sions. The differences between maximum and minimum emissions
were 244 kt for CO, 6.7 kt for NOx, 59.5 kt for NMVOCs, and 10.3 kt
for PM2.5. The temporal variations of vehicle emissions were
affected by monthly variations in the emission factors. The cold-
start emission factors were influenced by both minimum and
maximum temperature as well as humidity, while the hot emission
factors were constant throughout the year.
The emission factors obtained from COPERT v5 were only for PCs
and LCVs, and the model output VOC emission factors including
NMVOCs and methane, so only emission factors for PCs, LCVs, and
VOCs were investigated to explain the temporal variations in
NMVOCs. The average cold-start emission factors for PCs and LCVs
were calculated for each month (Fig. S3). VOC emission factors had
the strongest sensitivity to time, being highest in winter
(December, January, and February) and lowest in summer (June,
July, and August). The cold-start emission factors of CO and PM2.5
6
Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639
had similar temporal variations but were less sensitive. The cold-
start NOx emission factors were relatively stable throughout the
year but were slightly higher in winter. Under the same driving
conditions, higher emission factors contributed to larger emissions
in winter and lower in summer, causing more air pollution under
the unfavorable meteorological conditions in winter.
3.4. Spatial distribution
The spatial distributions of air pollutant emissions from on-road
vehicles in the NCP at 4 km
4 km resolution are shown in Fig. 4.
Overall, high-emission-intensity areas were mainly concentrated in
the downtowns of Beijing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Tangshan, Xuzhou,
Qingdao, Jinan, Jining, and Zibo. BC and NOx emissions had similar
spatial distributions: southern Xuzhou and northeastern Zhengz-
hou had the densest emissions of >20 t/grid for BC and >1200 t/grid
for NOx, followed by Jining, Jinan, and Zibo (all ~16 t/grid for BC and
~1000 t/grid for NOx). The central areas of Beijing, Tianjin, and
Tangshan, and coastal areas of Qingdao also had higher distribu-
tions of BC by > 5 t/grid and NOx > 400 t/grid. CO, NH3, and NMVOC
emissions were focused in central and southeastern Beijing and
northeastern Zhengzhou, where the emission intensity was all
>1150, 8, and 200 t/grid, respectively. Central Tianjin, Tangshan,
and Jinan, central and northern Jining and Zibo, and southern
Qingdao also had high CO, NH3, and NMVOC emissions of 300, 3,
and 90 t/grid, respectively. High emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 (20
and 16 t/grid, respectively) were concentrated in southern Xuzhou,
northeastern Zhengzhou, central Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, and
Jinan, central and northern Jining and Zibo, and southern Qingdao.
High SO2 emissions were mainly distributed in Beijing and
Zhengzhou, where emission intensities reached 2 t/grid. In
contrast, nearly 80% of the NCP had emissions of <0.2 t/grid.
Generally, regions with high emission intensities were in or near
downtown urban areas, and emissions decreased from city centers
to surrounding areas.
The emissions followed a clear vein-like distribution that fol-
lowed the road network. High-emission lines mostly followed
highways, and high-emission areas were mostly distributed near
urban roads. Vehicles on highways were mainly HDTs and PCs.
HDTs usually travelled for long distances, while PCs usually drove
relatively shorter distances. Thus, HDTs are expected to be the main
vehicles on highways. Due to their high emission factors and
mileage, their air pollutant emissions on highways were relatively
high. Urban roads had large, dense traffic flows of PCs with rela-
tively low speeds. On-road vehicles at low speeds tended to emit
more air pollutants than those at normal driving speeds, producing
higher emissions on urban roads. Therefore, emission controls on
HDTs and PCs can effectively reduce the emissions from on-road
vehicles in the NCP. Advocating for green and low-carbon vehi-
cles can reduce the vehicle proportion of petrol PCs and decrease
the high emissions caused by low-speed vehicles during traffic
jams.
3.5. Uncertainties
Many studies have considered on-road vehicle emission esti-
mations in cities or regions within the NCP. Table 1 compares the
results of this study with previous research. CO emissions in
Langfang, Tianjin, and Zhengzhou in this study were about twice
those in Sun et al. (2020), while those in Tianjin and Zhengzhou
were about half those in Sun et al. (2019) and Gong et al. (2017).
NOx emissions in Qingdao and Tianjin were nearly twice as high as
in Sun et al. (2017, 2019). SO2 from on-road vehicles in Qingdao and
Zhengzhou were an order of magnitude different between this
study (0.1e0.2 kt) and both Sun et al. (2017) and Gong et al. (2017)
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of air pollutant emissions from on-road vehicles in North China Plain.

7
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

Fig. 4. (continued).

(2e3 kt). CO and NOx emissions in Shandong Province were similar pollutants were similar between this study and others.
to those reported by Sun et al. (2016). NOx emissions in BTH were The differences in estimated emissions could be attributed to
about twice those in Yang et al. (2018). SO2 emissions in Henan calculation methods used and the determinations of parameters in
were lower than in Gu et al. (2019). The results for other cities and the establishment of the emission inventory. Gong et al. (2017),

8
P. Jiang, X. Zhong and L. Li Environmental Pollution 267 (2020) 115639

Table 1 emissions from vehicles in NCP. Higher cold-start emission factors

Comparisons with previous studies in cities/regions in North China Plain. (Unit: kt). possibly contribute to higher emissions in winter. Measures should
Region Year Method CO NMVOCs NOx PM10 PM2.5 SO2 be taken to reduce the frequency at idle for cars, especially in
Langfanga 2017 Formulah 46.6 25.7 1.0
winter. Additionally, control measures should differ among cities
Tianjinb 2016 COPERT v4 259 55.1 3.4 0.2 according to their specific emission characteristics. Overall vehicle
Henanc 2015 Formulah 1190 533 23.7 21.6 9.1 emissions showed a decreasing trend from the city center to sur-
Shandongd 2014 COPERT v4 1720 234 513 29.5 roundings. Due to the higher contributions of HDT emissions, high
Qingdaoe 2014 COPERT v4 155 57.8 2.8 2.4
emissions appeared on highways and presented a vein-like
BTHf 2014 Formulah 1620 544 23.5 26.1
Zhengzhoug 2013 Formulai 291 106 6.6 5.9 2.8 distribution.
a
Sun et al. (2020).
b
Sun et al. (2019). Data availability
c
Gu et al. (2019).
d
Sun et al. (2016). The estimated BC, CO, NH3, NMVOCs, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2
e
Sun et al. (2017).
f
emissions by each vehicle type, fuel type, and national emission
Yang et al. (2018).
g
Gong et al. (2017).
standard in 53 cities are available at https://zenodo.org/record/
h
E ¼ S(P
VKT
EF). 3970338#.XyeiAIgzapo.
i
E ¼ S(P
X
VKT
EF), where, P is vehicle population, VKT is average annual
vehicle mileage, EF is emission factor, and X is the share of vehicles with different Credit author statement
emission standard.

Peiyu Jiang: Methodology, Formal analysis, Investigation,

Yang et al. (2018), Gu et al. (2019), and Sun et al. (2020) all applied a
calculation formula to obtain emissions; their approach did not
distinguish cold-start and hot emissions, and ignored the in-
fluences of fuel evaporation, beta factors, and lubricant consump-
tion emissions, which can be simulated using COPERT v5. In
addition, different methods led to different emissions, and each
model was only used to calculate accurate emissions of some pol-
lutants under specific conditions but might have significantly over-
or under-estimated emissions for other pollutants (Huang et al.,
2018). Some studies used COPERT v4 to calculate vehicle emis-
sions, producing different results than those simulated using
COPERT v5 due to updates to the latter and different parameters.
Emissions might also vary annually due to changing vehicle pop-
ulations under each emission standard and emission factors.
Therefore, both the different version of COPERT used and the time
period studied could cause variations in the estimated emissions.
The simulated uncertainties for the estimated BC, CO, NH3,
NMVOCs, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 emissions in the NCP in 2017
were [-7.63%, 8.45], [-5.64%, 6.00%], [-8.83%, 9.91%], [-6.72%, 7.38%],
[-7.14%, 8.15%], [-6.08%, 6.74%], [-6.46%, 7.16%], and [-5.55%, 5.99%] at
the 95% confidence interval, respectively. Sensitivity analyses
revealed that uncertainties in estimated vehicle emissions could be
most attributed to diesel HDTs and petrol PCs. The population and
emission factors for 40e50 t diesel HDTs under China 3 were the
most sensitive parameters to BC, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions.
This population contributed 21.0%, 19.6%, 17.1%, and 19.0%, respec-
tively, to the uncertainty of total emissions, and the emission fac-
tors contributed 19.8%, 18.7%, 17.4%, and 18.5%, respectively. Petrol
motorcycles under China 0 contributed most to CO emission un-
certainty with 8.2% for the emission factor and 7.9% for the vehicle
population. NH3 emissions were most sensitive to small petrol PCs
under China 2, with the emission factor and population contrib-
uting 24.7% and 24.3%, respectively. Small petrol PCs under China 4
contributed the most to uncertainties in NMVOCs and SO2 emis-
sions by 41.5% and 24.2%, respectively.
4. Conclusions
Small and medium petrol passenger cars and diesel heavy duty
trucks of 20e26 t and 40e50 t of China 3 and 4 emission standards
were the dominant sources of vehicle emissions in the NCP. Diesel
coaches and petrol motorcycles also had a relatively higher
contribution. Emission control measures specifically for passenger
cars and diesel heavy duty trucks would effectively reduce the
Writing - Original Draft. Xi Zhong: Writing - Reviewing and Editing.
Lingyu Li: Conceptualization, Supervision, Visualization, Writing -
Reviewing and Editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by National Natural Science Founda-
tion of China (41705098) and Science and Technology Support Plan
for Youth Innovation of Colleges in Shandong Province
(DC2000000961).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115639.
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