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Monetary Policy Tools (Variables) Researche R Place Findings
Monetary Policy Tools (Variables) Researche R Place Findings
The empirical evidence defining the exact nature and strength of the relationship between the
two magnitudes stock market and monetary policy is unclear, and the results of several studies
done regarding to this has not helped particularly in measuring the extent to which a change in
one magnitude can affect the other. So in order to fill this void, the article “The impact of
monetary policy on stock market performance: Evidence from twelve (12) African countries
“undertakes a cross-country analysis of the bidirectional link between monetary policy and stock
market performance within the context of monetary and macroeconomic variables in Africa, and
seeks to find if there is contemporaneous relationship between the stock market performance and
monetary policy variables, if monetary policy respond to changes in stock market performance
and the effect of changes in monetary policy variables on the stock market performance.
This article takes a comprehensive look at the monetary policy and stock market dynamics from
the African perspective by using five indicators; SS&P global equity indices, Real interest rate,
Money and quasi; money growth, GDP growth rate and inflation rate with a panel VAR
framework. The Cross-sectional Dependence Test shows that all the series are cross-sectional
correlated and imply that the findings of the study will hold for all the countries in the sample
studied. The findings of this study shows that the stock markets of the 12 African countries are
positively affected contemporaneously by their respective monetary policies through the interest
rate channel, but could not find evidence to the reverse reaction. Apart from GDP, which seems
not to be significantly responding to the stock market shock, the rest of the variables are affected
by the stock market. The study establish that both money supply and real interest rate decline in
response to positive and negative stock market shocks respectively, whiles inflation responds
positively to a negative stock market shock.
In case of the two monetary policy stances considered in the study (money supply and real
interest rate), real interest rate is found to have the greatest influence on the stock market and
inflation. Contrarily, the stock market in turn exerts greater influence on real interest rate than it
does on money supply; this indicates a reverse relationship between monetary policy and the
stock market. Although both money supply and real interest rate affect inflation rate, the
influence of the real interest rate is much greater. Inflation is also seen to affects money supply
positively. A bidirectional relationship between inflation and stock market is also found,
implying inflation is an important determinant of stock market movements . These findings from
the article are enough evidence to conclude that there is a bidirectional relationship between
monetary policy and stock market performance in Africa.